Jon Heyman of SI.com says people at the MLB Owners Meetings in Chicago are saying the Mets will not be big players for either Blue Jays RHP Roy Halladay or RHP John Lackey.

…well, that’s nice, but i am far more concerned with whether the Mets owners think they’ll be big players for halladay or lackey…

In a recent report for SI.com, Heyman previews the free-agent market, offering predictions on where, and for how much, players will end up signing this winter, from Jason Bay to Chone Figgins to Miguel Tejada to Mike Gonzalez, and others.

Despite what he wrote on Twitter, Heyman lists the Mets as possible suitors for free-agents Matt Holliday and Lackey, as well as Orlando Hudson and Joel Pineiro.

According to Heyman, some baseball executives believe Holliday be end up signing a deal worth half of what Mark Teixeira signed last winter.

…so, half of texiera would be, say, a four– or five-year deal, worth around $90 million or so…

According to Adam Rubin, in a report for the Daily News, this off season, the Mets will look for a power upgrade in left field.

First of all, this idea that the team MUST improve their power is important, but the goal should not be that simple.  I mean, Rob Deer hit for power, but I would not say he is the prototype the Mets should be gunning for.

That said, Giants GM Brian Sabean told the San Francisco Chronicle that he does not expect to contact free-agent OF Matt Holliday or OF Jason Bay about playing for the Giants.

Meanwhile, Jayson Stark of ESPN.com recently said, “There are no signs the Yankees are in on either Holliday or Bay.”  In fact, according to FoxSports.com, the Yankees might be passing on Holliday and Bay, “in order to wait one more year for Rays left fielder Carl Crawford?”

The Cardinals would like to re-sign Holliday.  However, the team’s chairman, Bill DeWitt Jr., told ESPN Radio, ‘if a big-market franchise goes all-out to land Holliday, the Cardinals won’t have a chance.’

Yesterday, Angels owner Arte Moreno flatly told the Los Angeles Times, “Holliday is not going to be an Angel.”

So, of the teams who can afford him, who is interested in Holliday?

I believe the Mets would love to sign him, but not to an eight-year deal, like his agent, Scott Boras, keeps pushing in the media.

Frankly, I see this situation very, very similar to how the market was before the 2005 season for Carlos Beltran.  In the end, Beltran had no choice but to sign with the Mets, despite making a last-ditch effort to end up in the Bronx.  From what I can gather, the Mets would prefer to sign Holliday to a four– or five-year deal, worth around $15 million per season.

However, Boras is thinking more like eight-years, $180 million.

In the end, I still believe Holliday will end up signing a six-year deal, with whomever jumps the total value over $100 million.

I hope it is the Mets.

I feel Holliday is worth this type of money, because he’s young enough, well-rounded enough, he’s aggressive, he’s looking to be a leader and a star on a high-profile team, he’s better on defense than Bay, the Mets can afford him, he’s a terrific hitter – better than people probably even realize – and he solves a problem in the field (range) and in the lineup (balance and power) that the team has been trying to solve for years.

In the New York Times, Ben Shpigel does a fantastic job digging in to why the Mets spend as they do on their draft picks.

According to Shpigel, Omar Minaya said the team will spend more in the 2010 draft, when they have the No. 7 pick over all.

…like i said last month, i have talked to a few player agents over the last week, and to a man they all say it is a given that the Mets are notorious for not spending heavily on the draft… and, since this is understood going in, top players do not slip to them… for more on this idea of drafting over slot, click here…

Speaking of the Mets farm system, check out the Daily Stache, where Michael Ganci talks with minor-league guru Jonathan Mayo from MiLB.com the team’s top prospects, including Fernando Martinez, Brad Holt, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, and others.

In the end, Mayo feels the Mets still rank among the league’s worst farm systems, but, he says, “There are some interesting young arms from international scouting efforts and Ike Davis looks legit.”

Update, 12:22 pm:

Rangers reporter T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com talked to a Rangers official who said this deal is ‘not happening.’

Similarly, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors talked to a source who said the deal is not being discussed.

…if you recall, when rosenthal reported on the Mets-Cubs-Blue Jays three-way a few weeks ago, it was the Blue Jays who came out and denied it… today, we get Mets-Cubs-Rangers, and, again, it’s the third team who is denying it…

…one thing is clear, the Mets do not want bradley and the Cubs do not want castillo, but they are apparently one another’s only shot of getting rid of these people, and so they’re obviously working hard to find a third team to help make it happen…

Original Post, 11:28 am:

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune believes the Mets, Cubs and Rangers have discussed a three-way trade that would send Luis Castillo to Chicago, Milton Bradley to Texas and Kevin Millwood to New York.

Rogers quotes as saying ‘the deal has legs,’ and, “There’s a deal to be made there.”

Read more…

Adam, the Brooklyn Met Fan, likes the soon-to-be-released retro jersey from the Mets.

Bill Price of the Daily News explains why the Mets HAVE to sign free-agent OF Matt Holliday.

In a Q&A Mailbag for MLB.com, Marty Noble answers questions about finding power in the lineup, making Gary Carter a manager, and putting Daniel Muprhy at second base, among other things.

…i no longer read noble’s mailbags for his insight in to the team, so much as i read to see his new and exciting ways of dismissing fan-generated ideas that do not meet his standards… i don’t know if i fear his wit, or find it to be hilarious… either way, it’s entertaining…

Speaking of which, Ben Testa of Metsies and other Musings takes a look at ‘the fickle New York media.’

Rick Ryan of Blog Like a Champion Today puts forth his plan for the Mets off season, which is built around either trading for Roy Halladay or signing John Lackey.

Lastly, speaking of Halladay and Lackey, Kingman of the Real Dirty debates which of the two is a better pitcher.

According to Adam Rubin, in a report for the Daily News, the Mets off-season shopping list is as follows:

• Catcher to replace Brian Schneider.
• Power upgrade in left field.
• Second baseman if Luis Castillo can be traded.
• Rotation help.
• Eighth-inning reliever.
• Second lefthander in the bullpen to pair with Pedro Feliciano.

Yes, I like the simple idea of getting 20 home runs out of Benjie Molina and Omar Santos, adding a type of power-balance to the lineup that most teams do not have.  However, if the Mets are going to have the free-swinging Jeff Francoeur in the lower half of their lineup, and the pitcher hitting ninth, the thought of putting Molina between them, a guy who is making less and less contact, while also walking less, with each passing season, it all makes me uneasy.  In the end, he is all about those 20 home runs… and that’s about it.  Plus, he’ll be 36 next summer… and, signing a 36–year-old catcher to a two-year, $14 million deal just doesn’t seem smart to me.  If he could be had for around half that, for just one year, he’d be worth it… but, I don’t think 15 or so additional home runs is worth that type of commitment.

No, I don’t yet know who I prefer.  Free-agent C Rod Barajas hit just .226, but with 19 HR and 71 RBI, in 125 games for the Blue Jays this season – he hit .267 against left-handed pitching, while Omir Santos hit .283 against righties.

Barajas will require far less money, and can probably be had on a one-year deal, and though he’ll only hit around .230, he is capable of cracking 15 or so home runs, and he’ll play significantly better defense than Molina.

The thing is, there is a buzz in baseball suggesting guys like D-Backs C Chris Snyder, Royals C John Buck and Pirates C Ryan Doumit, among others, might all be available in trade.  Plus, there is a good a chance a collection of these type of catchers end up on the free-agent market if they are non tendered.

So, the Mets should most certainly explore this end of the catcher’s market first, knowing guys like Molina and Barajas are not going to sign a new contract without checking with Omar Minaya for first… and, who knows, maybe this will end like in 2005, when the Mets flirted all winter with Molina and Ramon Hernandez, only to trade with the Marlins to get Paul LoDuca.

Update, 10:17 am:

For more on why the Mets should not sign Molina, check out Ted Berg’s post on his blog, Ted Quarters.

Stan McNeal of the Sporting News previews the MLB Hot Stove season, discussing, ‘Truths and half-truths of free agency and trade talk.’

According to McNeal, “The Mets need a splash.”

…ugh… no… the Mets don’t NEED a splash… the Mets need to get their act together and win games… if they can do this by taking baby steps in the shallow-end of the pool, without creating a ripple, i’ll take it… just get it together, whatever it takes… but, this pretend idea that the team MUST make a splash, for, what, to get the back page from the Yankees, is how the team will get itself in trouble…

McNeal believes ‘some teams need to win in the winter,’ like the Mets, ‘to have a chance next summer.’

He concludes, “If the Mets don’t sign Matt Holliday or John Lackey or make a blockbuster trade, their offseason will be considered a disappointment.  And another lousy season likely will follow.”

…really… is that how it works… just like that… so, who was Tampa Bay’s big splash in 2008… take your time… you can get back to me…

…again, it’s about quality, not quantity… make smart choices… cost and hype are secondary… i’ll take a smart, effective, inexpensive decision that leads to winning over a stupid, irrational and costly one that leads to losing any day…

To read more from McNeal, who writes about potential off season trades including Roy Halladay and Carl Crawford; bargain players who can be had; and how the economy might affect it all, check out his report for the Sporting News, here.

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com believes the Braves and Brewers have discussed sending LHP Derek Lowe to Milwaukee for OF Cory Hart.

However, according to Rosenthal, “The Brewers are not sure they would want Lowe even if the Braves included significant money in the deal.”

The Braves signed Lowe last off season to a four-year, $60 million deal.

He will earn $15 million each of the next three seasons, after which he can become a free agent again.

…the thing is, if he was on the open market right now, it would go John Lackey, then lowe and guys like Joel Pineiro, Randy Wolf, Jason Marquis and Jon Garland, and i don’t think he would come close to getting the type of money that is due to him… so, it would stand to reason, any team looking to take on lowe, would wither a) ask the Braves to pay at least a few million bucks per season on his deal, or b) just sign one of these other pitchers for less…

He was 15–10 with a 4.67 ERA in 34 starts for the Braves, while striking out 111 batters and walking 63 in 194 innings.

Since becoming a starting pitcher in 2002, He has made at least 32 starts and won at least 12 games.

The Cubs announced today that they have traded RHP Aaron Heilman to the D-Backs for minor leagers Scott Maine and Ryne White.

…yet again, another non-tender cadidate gets moved, instead of being released… the Cubs were probably going to have to pay heilman around $2 million next season, after which he can be a free agent…

Heilman was 4–4 with a 4.11 ERA in 70 relief appearances for the Cubs last season, while striking out 65 batters in 72 innings.

Bob Nightingale of USA Today believes the Dodgers are focused on trying to acquire RHP Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays, as they look to find an ace.

According to Nightingale, “The Dodgers would have to give up Chad Billingsley and others.”

Last weekend, on WFAN, SI.com’s Jon Heyman said Halladay wants to sign his next long-term contract with a team that trains in Florida and plays on the East Coast, noting, ‘The list I heard last summer, for him, did not include the two Los Angeles teams.’

…the buzz in baseball suggests halladay will seek essentially the same deal given to CC Sabathia and Johan Santana, i.e., seven years, around $160 million… from what i can gather, the Yankees are willing to part with top young talent, like Phil Hughes, to get halladay, but i have no idea if they’re open to signing him to such a contract extension… it sounds to me like the Red Sox would just as soon sign John Lackey, and use their top talent to acquire a young hitter, like an Adrian Gonzalez… i have no doubt the Mets will look in to getting halladay, but i have no clue whether they’re capable of getting him, nor any idea how the team feels about giving out yet another monster contract, this time to a pitcher who will serve most of his time following his 35^th birthday…

In a poll on MetsBlog.com in early November, 72 percent of more than 4,000 voters said they would not commit six or more years on on a contract to Halladay.