Monthly Archives: November 2004
MetsBlog recently chatted with Bryan Hoch, editor of Mets Inside Pitch, in an effort to gauge the attittude of the Mets’ locker room, this afternoon, at MetsBlog.com…
MetsBlog: We love Victor Diaz, and believe he can be a starter for the Mets in 2005. Would you prefer to have him or OF Richard Hidalgo?
Hoch: I liked what we saw from Victor Diaz in limited action late this season. I like Hidalgo as well, but I believe the upside of sticking Diaz in as a possible everyday player might be a lot brighter than giving Hidalgo a two or three year offer, especially considering the way his season fell apart in September (even though it was clear he was playing hurt)
MetsBlog: You get to see how things function inside the Mets locker room. Do you think they are in need of a team leader?
Hoch: Every team needs their driving force, and I think David Wright is capable of evolving into just the leader the Mets need. He’ll be with this team long after the older players have retired, and you can already sense that some of the guys look toward him – if they don’t look up to him, they certainly gravitate toward him.
MetsBlog: A lot of fans worry that acquiring players like OF Sammy Sosa or RHP Pedro Martinez could negatively influence the team’s young players. How do you feel about that?
Hoch: I worried a little bit when they called Wright up if some of the older players might resent some of the attention being placed on this hot-shot 21-year-old kid – Gregg Jefferies, part II – but I was very pleased to see that didn’t turn out to be the case. He’s also been well-schooled by Vance Wilson and Joe McEwing.
MetsBlog: What I like about Wright is how balanced his game is. In fact, it turns out that is exactly what the fans want to see as an overall product, as well. Do you think there is merit to building a team built around pitching, speed and defense when playing in Shea Stadium?
Hoch: Pitching, defense and speed. I love the idea of it. It’s exciting baseball to watch, it fits right into the National League mold and, if they do it right, it’ll make the Mets a competitive team again.
MetsBlog: I fear the team still has a little Steve Phillips in it, but maybe I am just shell shocked over the last four seasons.
Hoch: The Mets know that they messed up by experimenting with Mo Vaughns and the Jeromy Burnitzes of the world (though it’s hard to hate on Burny, he’s such a solid guy, and he did bring the Mets Victor Diaz). Anyway, the key will be to steer clear of the next Roger Cedeno in assembling this hypothetical speed-and-defense offense.
MetsBlog: Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus talked with us briefly about teams not giving more than three-years on a contract due to insurance reasons. How married should the Mets be to only giving contracts with no more than three years guaranteed?
Hoch: Depends on the player. There is a certain upper echelon of players out there who you must give more than three years if you want to get them, and in those cases it’s worth it. Marginal, lower level stars (hello, Richard Hidalgo) should by no means have any more than a three-year deal. A guy like Vladimir Guerrero? I would have had no problem if the Mets had offered him five years. And if David Wright stays healthy, I think he’ll soon deserve a long-term deal like the one Derek Jeter received from the Yankees. He’s that good.
MetsBlog: Every club has a player hierarchy. Do you feel the players at the top of the Mets hierarchy hurt the club more than they help?
Hoch: I assume you’re talking about guys like Al Leiter and John Franco, who are widely believed to have impact on player personnel and that kind of stuff. I really don’t buy it as much as some others. The next time an organization makes a trade (Scott Kazmir) based upon the comments of two of their players will be the first. If you’re looking for people to blame for the Mets’ struggles, sure, it belongs to the players on the field just based on performance. But as far as the interpersonal nature of the Mets, I like this clubhouse. They just haven’t gotten it done physically.
MetsBlog: Based on your personal experience and vibe from the clubhouse, what do you feel are the biggest concerns for Mets players about the future of their organization?
Hoch: Winning. I don’t think I’m drinking from the Kool-Aid when I say that I see a lot of positive things in this clubhouse. The 2004 Mets were a much better, younger team than the 2002 Mets. There’s been improvement, it’s just been mixed in with a lot of disappointment. But the turnaround takes time, and I can see this team seriously contending in a year or two. They have a solid core in place, they just need to make the right moves to make the engine click.
MetsBlog: Thanks, Bryan, and keep up the great work at Mets Inside Pitch.
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Having had a chance to survey the landscape, consult with various insiders and peddle through countless options, MetsBlog offers the following off-season plan to the New York Mets and their GM Omar Minaya…
Yesterday we established the Mets’ foundation, while today we re-construct their outfield…
OF Cliff Floyd is the subject of many trade rumors, following comments that he would retire sooner than later due to a second consecutive season plagued with injuries. Floyd will make $13 million over the next two years. However, when healthy, he is still a valuable left-handed bat.
The Angles, Cubs and Rangers have all shown interest in Floyd. In all cases, the Mets would be required to either take back more expensive talent, such as 2B Alfonso Soriano, who has openly refused to shift to the outfield, or OF Sammy Sosa, who is due a boat load of dollars.
When it comes to physically playing the game of baseball, Soriano is reckless, confused, has way too many holes in his swing and would bankrupt the Mets in chewing gum sales. Additionally, an overwhelming number of Mets’ fans have no interest in bringing Sosa to Shea, 73 percent against, according to a MetsBlog poll. The deal with the Angels reportedly involved OF Jose Guillen, who has since been traded to Washington.
MetsBlog would trade OF Cliff Floyd to either Anaheim, Texas or Kansas City, paying a significant portion of his salary, ala the Yankees and Raul Mondesi, in exchange for a collection of mid-to lower-level minor leaguers.The goal is not to free-up salary or acquire talent, but to admit a mistake, pay for it and move on, allowing the team to advance towards a younger, healthier regime.
Moving Floyd and keeping OF Mike Cameron in centerfield leaves the Mets with two vacant outfield positions. One will be filled through free-agency, the other with prospect OF Victor Diaz.
By the end of last season, Diaz made a strong case to be given the chance to start. So did Jason Phillips in 2003, though. Traditionally, sophomore seasons rarely go as expected – see Angel Berroa and Scott Podsednik. Diaz, however, has strong support from the experts.
When asked whether or not they believe Diaz could handle the starting role for 2005 and beyond, every expert we spoke with, from Jonathan Mayo at MLB.com to Scott Lauber, the Binghamton Mets reporter for the Press and Sun Bulletin, to J.J. Cooper, minor league expert at Baseball America, sang the young hitters praise.
“Someone, please give [Diaz] a job,” Mayo exclaimed. “All he’s done is hit at every level, including a huge power surge in his first taste of Triple-A. Hopefully, the Mets will hold onto him and give him a real opportunity next spring. Otherwise, he appears ready for a regular spot in someone’s lineup in 2005.”
Across the board, most believe Diaz is capable of hitting .280, with 20 HR and 80 RBI in his first few Major League seasons. To sign a free agent with these numbers would cost the team roughly $4 million per season, such as a Raul Ibanez type. Diaz will cost the Mets $325,000 per year through 2007, when he is set to hit arbitration.
MetsBlog would make the left-field position Diaz’s to lose next spring.
Aside from what the Mets have under contract, many free agent outfielders are lurking across the open market.
The prize of the pack is OF Carlos Beltran, who at 27-years-old, and represented by Scott Boras, is rumored to be seeking a ten-year deal in the neighborhood of $15 to $20 million per season. His contract could be justified given his immense talent and age, particularly for a team in the largest media market, with a strong revenue stream and a regional television network on the horizon.
The biggest obstacle for the Mets in signing Beltran is the cross-town Yankees, whom most experts agree are the front-runners to land his services. New York Newsday believes the Yankees plan to offer Beltran a deal worth $14 million to $15 million per year, similar to the money being paid to 1B Albert Pujols and OF Vladimir Guererro. Next in line are the Cubs, but they’ll have to trade Sammy Sosa’s mammoth contract before making any major acquisitions. ESPN polled 15 General Managers, asking, “Where will Carlos Beltran sign – and for how much?” Of the 15 men, eight believe Beltran will sign with the Yankees, three said the Angels, two said the Cubs, one said the Orioles and the last had no idea. None said the Mets. The GM’s put Beltran’s eventual per-year price tag at $12 to $15 million.
Assuming he wants to play in New York City, for the Mets to land Beltran, not only will they have to overpay, but he will have to realize that 1) the Yankees are no longer a lock to win a ring, 2) they are drifting closer to the days of the Bronx Zoo and further from the days of the late 90’s Dynasty, and 3) the Mets have money to spend, contracts expiring and crop of young talent for whom he can be the leader of.
MetsBlog would offer Beltran a guaranteed five-year deal at $80 million, with a no-trade clause and a sixth and seventh year vested player option. Next season and the year after, Beltran would earn $18 million per season. From 2007 to 2009 he would be paid $14 million, with the two vested option years ringing in at $16 million.
Assuming Beltran declines, and accepts a deal with either Anaheim, Houston or the Yankees, MetsBlog would focus its attention on OF Magglio Ordonez. In fact, should Beltran drag out negotiations until late January, as Boras did with OF Vladimir Guerrero last season, MetsBlog would shift its attention to Ordonez sooner than later.
During the regular season, Ordonez was thought to be tops on the team’s upcoming off-season wish list. However, following season ending knee surgery, and a secretive recovery, his stock has plummeted entering the free agent market.
On November 10, the New York Post reported that Ordonez expressed interest in signing with the Mets. If Ordonez, who is also represented by Boras, doesn’t receive a long-term contract offer, which seems likely according to most market experts, he could end up being forced to sign a short-term deal, which could be right up the Mets’ alley.
When asked by MetsBlog to explain whether or not Ordonez’s injury was enough to effect his overall game, Will Carroll, medical expert and author of the weekly column Under the Knife at Baseball Prospectus, simply stated, “We just don’t know.”
Carroll further noted that if Ordonez’s price drops below the $10 million-per-year mark, the outfielder’s upside could easily begin to outweigh the downside.
The Royals, Orioles and Rangers are among the team’s reportedly interested in Ordonez’s services, but only if he is willing to sign an incentive laden short-term or one-year, make-good type deal.
Given Carroll’s assessment and the upside to Ordonez’s talents, MetsBlog would offer OF Magglio Ordonez a guaranteed three-year deal worth $10 million per year, with a vested option for 2008.MetsBlog would likely enter the season with an outfield of Victor Diaz, Mike Cameron and Magglio Ordonez.
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It appears the two players the Mets are most likely to lose during the Rule V Draft are left-handed relievers Blake McGinley and Royce Ring.
Ring went from being a highly touted closer prospect in 2003 – when he posted a 4-5 record with a 2.19 ERA and 26 saves – to a decent minor league reliever in 2004 – going 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA and two saves and a demotion to AA. What’s worse, he went from striking out 9.73 batters per nine innings in 2004 to striking out just 6.39 batters per nine innings in 2003. In other words, his stock is on the decline.
McGinley, on the other hand, went 9-2 with a 3.73 ERA for Binghamton before going 3-3 with a 4.05 ERA in 13 appearances for the Tides. He allowed just 22 walks in 99 1/3 innings this season. His stock is on a significant incline.
RotoWorld.com lists MiGinley as 80 percent likely to be taken – Ring at 50 percent.
While the New York Post reported yesterday that the Mets have offered 1B Richie Sexson a contract for approximately $10 million per year, the New York Times reports today that they have not. However, the Times does note that the Mets have had “extensive communication” with Sexson’s agent and are as interested in him as he is in them.
The New York Times claims that GM Omar Minaya recently submitted a counter proposal to Cubs GM Jim Hendry regarding OF Sammy Sosa in which the Cubs would assume more of Sosa’s salary. The New York Post reports that, as Minaya negotiates Sosa’s price downward, other teams have become interested, as well.
As promised by MetsBlog, our YesOrNoToSosa.com was sent to the direct attention of Adam Rubin of the Daily News, David Lennon of Newsday, Mark Hale of the New York Post, David Waldstein of the Star-Ledger and Peter Abraham of the Journal News, as well as to Jay Horwitz and Shannon Dalton at the Mets media relations department.
The New York Post reports that the Mets have expressed interest in free-agent OF Moises Alou. With the Sosa rumors cooling off, Newsday writes that the Mets have turned their attention to OF Richard Hidalgo and OF Magglio Ordoñez.
A friend of RHP Pedro Martinez‘s told Bob Klapisch, of the Bergen Record, “There’s no way in the world Pedro would ever sign with the Mets.” If you recently won a World Championship with a team that you played for the last seven seasons, would you sign with the Mets?
The general consensus around the fans and the media is that the Mets offer to Martinez is simply his attempt to bring up the Red Sox offer of two-years, $25.5 million. The question on everyone’s mind, however, is: what if the Red Sox balk, and pull out of the negotiations.
Should the Mets end up with Martinez, paying him roughly 30 percent more than RHP Carl Pavano will likely receive, they will end up with an ace.
LHP Tom Glavine, RHP Kris Benson and RHP Steve Trachsel will prove to be rather consistent for the Mets. On any given night the Mets will be able to win with any of these three on the mound. RHP Victor Zambrano is a wild card. So is Pedro Martinez.
At his worst he will turn in a month like he had in July of this past season, throwing 33 innings over five starts, allowing five home runs with a 5.46 ERA. Or, he will give you September 2003, when he posted a 0.82 ERA over five starts, while striking out 37 batters in 33 innings.
For all the talk that his health is breaking down, he has failed to make 29 starts in a season only once, in 2001, over the last ten years. Additionally, his pitches per game were actually up from the last three seasons.
It should be noted that while his health seems stable, his stats are not. Though Martinez is capable of turning in the stellar performance, overall, he is striking out less and walking more batters, while getting hit harder with every season that passes.
The reason Minaya wants Martinez is not for his veteran presence, experience or statistics, it is for the electricity he will bring to mound – something not seen since the days of Dwight Gooden.
Martinez would undoubtedly bring flare and chaos, and a string of never-dull moments.
The questions that linger are: Is that what the Mets truly need right now? Does spending on Pedro limit other acquisitions? Does Martinez want to even pitch with the Mets? And if he does, can the Mets count on three strong years from him?
One thing is for sure, Minaya’s cell phone bill this off-season will be probably use half of the team’s payroll. Keep up the good work, Omar – leave no stone unturned.
At $12.66 million, what type of season would you expect in return from RHP Pedro Martinez? For more Mets news, check out SportSpyder.com Note: If you would like to receive an email when Metsblog is update, email us at: updates@metsblog.com
The New York Times and Associated Press were first to report that Mets GM Omar Minaya has offered RHP Pedro Martinez a three-year, $38 million contract with a vesting option for a fourth year. Martinez is reportedly seeking a four-year contract worth $60 million. The Boston Herald believes the Red Sox will not make a counter offer.
The Star-Ledger reports that the Yankees have offered LHP Al Leiter a one-year deal worth roughly $5 million to $6 million guaranteed, plus incentives based on innings pitched.
In what is the most random news of the morning, according to Ken Rosenthal of the Sporting News, the Mets are pursuing free-agent C Henry Blanco. Blanco recently rejected a two-year, $2.5 million offer from the Twins. The Twins replaced Blanco by signing Mike Redmond to a two-year, $1.8 million contract.
Eight-time All-Star Darryl Strawberry is among 12 new players who will appear on the Hall of Fame ballot this season. Strawberry hit 335 homers during a 17-year major league career with the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Giants. Voting ends Dec. 31, and the results will be announced Jan. 4.
According to the San Francisco Chronicle, the Giants are set to sign Armando Benitez to a three-year, $21 million contract.
MetsBlog has started a new link that features all contracts that have been reportedly offered to players at positions the Mets are, or should be, interested in filling. You can find the link in the sidebar under Contracts.
On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being total confidence, 1 being no confidence at all, how confident are you that the current Mets roster can make the playoffs in 2005?
For more Mets news, check out SportSpyder.com
Note: If you would like to receive an email when Metsblog is update, email us at: updates@metsblog.com
Beginning today, MetsBlog will start distributing its content periodically throughout the day.
For the most part, the schedule will be as follows:
9:00 AM…
MetsBlog’s Morning News – a rundown on all the day’s headlines relating to the New York Mets, with brief commentary by the MetsBlog staff.
11:00 AM…
MetsBlog’s Afternoon Buzz – a rundown of all the day’s hot rumors, with insight offered by the MetsBlog staff.
1:00 PM…
MetsBlog’s Afternoon Opinion – An afternoon editorial, either from a MetsBlog staffer or from a fan submission. Friday will feature The Locker Room, a roundtable discussion amongst your favorite Mets bloggers.
3:00 PM…
MetsBlog’s Media Corner – Expect to see either a recapped interview, a MetsBlog Radio segment, an exclusive MetsBlog IMterview, answers to our monthly MailBag or an upcoming Radio Call-In Segment.
This will hopefully do two things, 1) break up and space out the lively discussion that occurs within our comments section, and B) provide you with more, consistent time to avoid doing what you should be doing when you are instead reading MetsBlog, such as your homework, writing that proposal for work, or answering that call from a relentless client.
Thanks for your support…
MetsBlog.comHaving had a chance to survey the landscape, consult with various insiders and peddle through countless options, MetsBlog offers the following off-season plan to the New York Mets and their GM Omar Minaya…
We begin today with a look at the team’s given talent and foundation that will be used to make decisions going forward…
The Foundation…
To Build or Not To Build…
MetsBlog surveyed roughly 1,000 fans of the New York Mets in an effort to determine the best interests of what could be deemed the team’s “client base.”
Of surveyed fans, 78 percent claim they would rather see the team lose the next three seasons, win the World Series in 2008 and do it with mostly home grown talent and a few key free agents, as opposed to having the team win next season with a $200 Million payroll. When the same question was asked of fans that attended 10 or more games in each of the last three seasons, the number jumped to 84 percent – in other words, paying customers, who did so to see bad baseball, prefer a rebuilding phase, as well.
To assume that their client base will turn out at the ticket booth while the team stumbles is a leap-of-faith for any team’s ownership.
Assuming the Mets will not make the playoffs for the next three seasons, but will truly stick to a ‘build from within’ mindset, in other words ‘a rebuilding phase’, 38 percent of surveyed fans would attend one to three games per year, 30 percent would attend five to ten games per year, 23 percent would attend three to five games and seven percent would attend over ten. According to our findings, these numbers are on par with each respondents attendance record during the Mets success in the late 1990’s, as well as during the team’s failures of the last few seasons.
In other words, while fans say they would prefer a ‘youth movement’, they would also support it financially.
The End of an Era…
Since joining the club in 1998, Mike Piazza has been the Shea Stadium’s main draw and crown jewel of the Mets’ advertising efforts. His star has faded significantly over the last few seasons, though. And the time has come to begin reducing the team’s dependency on Piazza’s on-field performance.
The main concern in trading Piazza, assuming the team could find a taker of his massive contract, which has one-year remaining at $15 million, is that the team would suffer a ‘public relations hit’ by ditching the only ‘great’ player to be a part of their organization in decades.
On a scale of one-to-ten, with ten being “very important” and one being “not important at all”, surveyed Mets fans answered 5.6, with a mean response of eight, when asked: How important it is that the Mets protect their relationship with Mike Piazza, guaranteeing he is always synonymous with the Mets organization?
Fans recognize the historical significance of Piazza, even with his fading offensive statistics as a growing weakness in the team’s lineup.
Given that most people, ranging from broadcasters to fans to journalists, believe that Piazza is a defensive liability when playing first base on a regular basis, and given that his contract is too large to trade and that the fans prefer he remain with the club, the only option the Mets have is to make Piazza, again, a full-time catcher and settle for accepting whatever service time his aging body can render – 120 to 140 games realistically.
The main problem with moving Piazza appears to be similar to the one facing the Yankees with 1B Jason Giambi, in that even if the Mets paid all of Piazza’s $15 million, a team must still justify acquiring an oft-injured aging veteran with limited defensive skills that has seen a significant decline in his offensive production over the least few years and can only truly be of help to a lineup as a designated hitter. However, for a team like Anaheim, Baltimore or Texas, who have all expressed interest in Piazza, making him their fulltime DH clogs the DH position.
In the case of Anaheim, should Garrett Anderson injure himself, to a point where he can bat, but not play the field, Piazza just gets in the way. To part with a young left-handed starter, such as LHP Jarrod Washburn, for a player that could ultimately limit a team’s flexibility is seemingly foolish, regardless of how ineffective Washburn has been since 2000.
Additionally, as is with Texas and Anaheim, most teams have a long list of transactions that would need to fall into place before they can bring Piazza into the fold.
Remember, rule number one when trying to trade a player is: If you don’t want him, nobody else does, either.
Therefore, should an opportunity present itself in which Piazza can be traded, it’ll be explored. However, it appears that such an opportunity coming to fruition is slim to none. Allowing him to finish his contract behind the plate with the Mets, playing in 120 games, will be acceptable, and, in most cases, likely.
Must See B.P.…
According to the statistic Park Factor, which is an estimate of a ballpark’s effects on batting and pitching, Shea Stadium is a pitcher’s park – meaning, on average, a pitcher has more of an advantage than a batter given field conditions, the size of the park, weather and so on.
Therefore, to build a team around hitting home runs would be working against Shea Stadium’s strength. Inversely, building a team around pitching, fundamental execution, defense and limited run production would actually be in the Mets best interests – especially considering this style of play is effective in all ball parks, not just their own.
The likely fear amongst management is a false conclusion that fans prefer to see high-scoring, home run friendly baseball games. Only three percent of surveyed Mets fans would prefer to see a 10-8 final score containing six home runs, few stolen bases, a plethora of doubles in the gap and plenty of pitching changes, while 29 percent of surveyed Mets fans would prefer to see a 1-0 pitcher’s duel with no home runs, tremendous defense and very aggressive action on the base paths. The majority, though, 68 percent, prefer to see a final score of 4-3 with one home run, a lot of sacrifice flies, stolen bases and bunts, an occasional run scoring double, a few nice defensive plays, a solid pitching performance and a lot of downtime to run to the bathroom and order a hot dog
A well-balanced game of pitching, timely hitting and defense not only wins on the field, but apparently can win off-the-field, as well.
The Budget…
According to DugoutDollars, the Mets are committed to $70 million in player’s salaries for 2005.
“Our payroll has always been flexible,” Mets CEO Fred Wilpon told New York Newsday on November 12. “Never has there been a time that I remember when a GM said, ‘I want to do X, Y or Z’ and we haven’t gone along with it.”
Last season the Mets finished with a payroll of roughly $90 million. If it were to reach this level again, the team would be able to tack on around $20 million in player’s salaries.
“Fred Wilpon has a Catch-22,” Adam Rubin, Mets bear reporter for the New York Daily News, told Metsblog. “He needs to sign a top-quality player to reinvigorate the fan base, but dwindling season-ticket sales make it difficult for him to agree to splurge.”
Peter Abraham of the Journal News adds, “My belief is they will spend more this year in advance of the new network but that doesn’t mean they will sign guys just to get to $100 million – it has to make sense.”
A $20 million window will leave Mets GM Omar Minaya plenty of room to increase the team’s marketability and on-field talent.
Other reports indicate the Mets’ payroll could reach as high as $100 million.
Additionally, the Mets are committed to $47 million in player’s salaries in 2006, when Piazza will be off the books and RHP Tom Glavine’s yearly salary reduces by nearly half. Therefore, theoretically, the Mets could back-load the payments for any new free agents to coincide with the team’s future flexibility.
Being that the Mets will begin airing games on their own regional cable network at the start of 2006, it is in their best interests to field a team attractive to potential advertisers. Gerald Williams, Scott Erickson and Rickey Gutierrez are not attractive. Wright, Beltran and Clement, are.
The Given…
While money has assisted in winning many past World Championships, it has never been the single biggest factor. The key, particularly over the last decade, has been developing a core of young players – maybe home grown, maybe not – that will learn to play alongside one another, learn to respect one another and learn to win with one another. The concept of a universal team chemistry is somewhat overrated. The concept of cohesion, isn’t. Collectively wanting to win is one thing. Wanting to win for each other is something entirely different.
Fortunately, the Mets have a young leader of this core in 3B David Wright. He has won at every level of baseball where he has played – winning is all he knows. In addition to having passion and focus, he is also a tremendous on-field talent. Though it is quite overzealous to project that he’ll rival Scott Rolen’s statistics, it doesn’t seem to stop fans, scouts and all levels of journalists in doing so. In a nutshell: he is a special player.
“You can already sense that some of the guys look up to [Wright]” says Bryan Hoch, editor of Mets Inside Pitch. “If they don’t look up to him, they certainly gravitate toward him.”
Using Rolen’s second season of service as a guideline, it is safe to assume, spanning 150 games played, that Wright will post a .290 batting average, hit roughly 20 home runs, 35 doubles and a .380 on base percentage – All-Star caliber numbers, worthy of batting third at the ripe age of 22.
In fact, the 2005 Bill James Handbook projects that Wright will bat .309 with 27 home runs.
Wright will not only be the team’s emotional anchor, he will be the crown-jewel of the team’s marketing strategy, as well.
Alongside Wright, in most all of the team’s promotional materials, will also be SS Jose Reyes.
“Reyes has a natural charisma that demands attention similar to a Dontrelle Willis,” says Bryan Bracey, Sport Commerce and Culture Doctoral Student at the University of Maryland at College Park. “Wright, on the other hand, does not appear to exude as much personality but has a world of talent that exceeds even that of Reyes. Wright’s play is what will make him in demand. His humble nature and eagerness to get better should further endear him to fans.”
While Reyes’ million dollar smile is certainly worthy of excitement, it is worthless if he isn’t on the field.
In the last two years, Reyes has suffered the following:
Jan. 4, 2003: pulled his left quadriceps muscle while trying to beat out an infield single, out 10 weeks.
May 6: injured his right hamstring while rehabbing from quad pull, out three weeks.
July 1: tweaked his hamstring again, out five games.
Aug. 31: sprained his left ankle, misses the rest of the season.
March 14, 2004: injured his right hamstring, out nine weeks.
August 12, 2004: tore a calf muscle, out five weeks.
Will Carroll, medical expert and author of the weekly column Under the Knife at Baseball Prospectus, believes Reyes’ problem is not his legs, but actually his back – and until the team and Reyes treat this issue accordingly, the young shortstop will be riddled with injuries for years to come.
“Your back is literally connected to your hamstrings, and the connections are very very similar,” Carroll explained in a November interview with MetsBlog. “And [Reyes has] had back problems since he was 12-years-old. Because of that, his hamstrings are very tight, and he needs a holistic program where they can deal with this – as opposed to trying to change his style of running, they need to change his body.”
The Mets adopted this method of remedy during Reyes’ most recent trip to the disabled list in August of 2004. However, according to Carroll, Reyes didn’t like it, and simply gave up on it.
Metsblog asked twenty beat reporters who follow a team other than the Mets to rank the value of Reyes. On a scale of one to ten, ten being “a prospect you must have” and one being “a prospect you would take, but wouldn’t trade much to acquire,” non-New York beat reporters valued Reyes at an eight on opening day of last season, and a four today. In other words, according to the opinions of these non-New York beat reporters, Reyes’ value has depreciated by half in less than a year.
“There’s no reason Reyes can’t become one of the best shortstops in the major leagues,” says Jim Callis, prospect and draft expert for Baseball America. “He won’t become a big-time power hitter, but he should excel in all other areas of the game.”
Mets GM Omar Minaya, who helped scout Reyes, acknowledged this potential by recently saying to the Bergen Record, “I know [Reyes] had some trouble with injuries last season, but when you have a talent like that you have to commit to that.”
Luck plays a tremendous factor in winning, particularly in winning a World Championship. Based on an upside/downside scale and a depreciated value, Metsblog is willing to gamble on Reyes, in hopes that the decision pays off with health, a ton of stolen bases and an x-factor of electricity.
With no statistical improvement, just a full season under his belt, it is safe to assume that Reyes will post roughly a .300 batting average with 10 home runs, 40 doubles and 30 to 40 stolen bases – making him, too, a candidate for the All-Star game.
The Wild Card of the bunch, oddly enough, is the man with the most professional baseball experience on the current infield: Kaz Matsui.
Matsui and the Mets agreed to a three-year deal worth $23 million, roughly the same money being paid to SS Edgar Renteria, but still half that being paid to SS Derek Jeter. Though Matsui’s season ended in early August due to back spasms, had he played a full year, he was on pace to hit roughly .270 to .280, while accumulating 40 doubles, ten home runs, score at least 80 runs and steal close to 20 bases – numbers very similar to Angel Berroa’s rookie season, winner of the 2003 Rookie of the Year award, who most experts claimed Matsui would best compare to.
Matsui is overpaid, however, for this level of production. He will improve, though, which will help justify the cost, particularly when weighed as a National League second baseman, which is where he will play next season due to his atrocious fielding at shortstop.
Corey Schwartz, MLB.com’s statistics guru, and host of MLB Radio’s Fantasy 411, believes Matsui should hit in the .280′s with 12 to15 homers and upwards of 20 steals in his second season in the Major Leagues – sufficient for a National League second baseman, and on par with 2B Ray Durham, who earned $7.2 million in 2004, and 2B Placido Polanco, who’ll likely net a $4 million per year deal this off-season.
Schwartz adds, “His runs and RBI’s will depend on the strength of the Mets batting order and his spot in it, but he does have good doubles power, so if Jose Reyes can stay healthy, Matsui could approach or top 70 RBI’s.”
With Wright at third, Reyes at short and Matsui at second, the Mets have a young, quick, athletic and exciting trio that should not only produce on the field, but can be used to market the team from New York to the Dominican to Japan.
“Ultimately, however, the brightness of their stars will be tied to the team’s ability to win,” notes Bracey. “Without on field results in the New York market, it is only a matter time before Reyes’ upbeat attitude becomes a tired act and Wright’s humbleness becomes passivity.”###
Tomorrow afternoon, MetsBlog will reveal its plan to remake the team’s outfield – the catching situation and first base will be covered on Wednesday, the pitching staff on Thursday and the bench on Friday …
MetsBlog has received a ton of emails inquiring about specific dates and their relevance to the baseball off-season. Here is our breakdown…
Dec. 7…
December 7 is the last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to their former players who became free agents.
For instance, between now and December 7, the Mets can still offer LHP Al Leiter salary arbitration. Should he accept, Leiter will be a Met in 2005. The Mets and Leiter will each submit a salary figure to a third party arbitrator who will listen to both sides presenting their case between January 5 – 15. The arbitrator must choose one of the two salary proposals, dictating Leiter’s 2005 salary.
If a team wants a player back, but is unwilling to meet his contract demands, yet is willing to do so for one season, the team may offer arbitration. If a player feels the free agent market will not bring him the money he is due, he may accept arbitration – though he can also refuse and remain a free agent.
For the most part, if a player has hit the free agent market, he has every intention of signing a long-term contract some place and will not be accepting arbitration.
The real significance to this date deals with free agent compensation and May 1.
If a free agent player is not offered salary arbitration by his old team by December 7, that team cannot negotiate with said player until May 1 of the following year. Yes, if the Mets don’t offer Leiter salary arbitration by December 7, they cannot negotiate with him until a month into next season.
Also, a new team signing a free agent after December 7 does not have to give up a compensatory draft pick. Therefore, most free agent signings, obviously, will come after this date, as teams would prefer to sign the free agent without giving up a pick if they don’t have to.
Dec 10 – 13…
The Baseball Winter meetings occur – this year in Anaheim, Calif. Owners, General Managers, talent evaluators, reporters, agents, players and usually a lost Rickey Henderson converge on the grounds of a hotel, typically in a warm weathered climate, to discuss players, trades, money, endorsements, golf and drinks with umbrellas in them.
Dec. 19…
Over the last few years, this date has become more and more significant, and is quickly being considered the true start of the Hot Stove league.
The following day, December 20, is the deadline for teams to decide if they are going to tender contracts to their players.
For instance, Vance Wilson is entering his fifth year of service with the Mets. The Mets than have three options for Wilson, 1) they can offer Wilson salary arbitration, and risk him being awarded more money next season than they’d prefer to pay, 2) they could avoid arbitration, and offer him a one-year contract at a price they feel is fair, and hope he accepts, or 3) they could non-tender him, or cut him, altogether, believing his cost is not worth the effort. They must choose one of the three.
This process must take place for all players with three-to six-years of Major League service.
Many teams will not tender contracts to non-free agent players, who may see a big raise in pay from an arbitrator. Once cut, a player becomes a free agent.
Over the last seasons, a boat load of new players typically hit the free agent market the evening of December 19.
As such, general managers tend to hold off making trades until this date passes – as a player they may have an eye on through the trade market, could end up being fair-game through the open market the following day.
Dec. 20…
Last day for teams to offer 2005 contracts to unsigned players.
Jan 5-15…
The salary arbitration filing period begins.
Jan. 8…
If a team offered salary arbitration to a free agent, January 8 is the last day that player can accept. Should the player not accept, he cannot negotiate with his former team until May 1 of the following season.
Jan 18…
Teams and players who accepted arbitration exchange salary figures.
Feb 1-21…
Salary arbitration hearings begin.
Feb 19-24…
Pitchers and catchers report to camp.
April 4…
Opening Day!
Active rosters are reduced to 25 players.
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The News…
The Associated Press reported Saturday that Mets GM Omar Minaya met with RHP Pedro Martinez in the Dominican Republic over the Thanksgiving holiday. Martinez was 16-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 2004 for the world champion Red Sox. The Red Sox have reportedly offered Martinez a two-year, $25.5 million contract with a vesting option for 2007. A baseball official told Adam Rubin of the Daily News that the Mets plan to make Martinez an offer within the next few days.
The New York Post reports that the Mets have offered 1B Richie Sexson a contract for approximately $10 million per year – the length of the contract is unclear.
Jason Kendall was traded from Pittsburgh to Oakland for LHP Mark Redman and LHP Arthur Rhodes. In all, the two teams will roughly spilt the $34 million due to Kendall over the next three-years.
The Notes…
The Minneapolis Pioneer Press reported on Friday that Boston is looking to “dump” 1B Doug Mientkiewicz and the $4.5 million his due next season.
Adam Rubin of the Daily News suggests that, according to one Mets official, the Mets’ payroll could reach as much as $105 million.
The Cleveland Plain Dealer believes that RHP Matt Clement tops the Indians’ free-agent wish list. Multiple reports have indicated that the Mets were interested in Clement, as well, as a replacement for LHP Al Leiter.
The Oakland Tribune once again mentions the Mets interest in Oakland A’s side-arm reliever Chad Bradford. A few weeks ago, the Sporting News reported the A’s were interested in acquiring C-1B Jason Phillips in exchange for Bradford.
Ken Rosenthal of the Sporting News suggests that the Mariners may look to sign two of 1B Carlos Delgado, 1B Richie Sexson and 3B Troy Glaus, using Sexson in left-field if Delgado is at first. Sexson started 91 games in left for the Indians in 1999 and 2000.
The Mets hired Rick Downs to be the team’s batting coach.
The Chicago Tribune reports that 1B Carlos Delgado appears headed to Baltimore or Seattle.
Baseball America released its list of the Top 20 Players in the Arizona Fall League. No Mets made the list.
Note: If you would like to submit a question for our monthly mailbag, send us an email to mailbag@metsblog.com
The Quote…
“I don’t know him really as a person. Just speaking from a [baseball] standpoint, the guy is a helluva pitcher. How are you going to get around it? It’s always funny to hear he’s losing this or losing that. He’s a pitcher, not a thrower. I don’t concern myself with miles per hour. He can pitch. He’s showed even when he does not have his best stuff, he can get people out. I have the ultimate respect for him.” – Willie Randolph, talking about Pedro Martinez, as quoted by the New York Post.
The Buzz…
Baseball owners and GM’s are rather annoyed with the Mets for giving RHP Kris Benson a three-year, $22.5 million contract, believing it has raised the value for other free agent pitchers.
Note: If you would like to write a Fan Editorial for Metsblog, click here: I Want to Write!
MetsBlog.com’s Take…
On Pedro…
A splash, Omar, is one thing – but, a mistake is always a mistake, now matter how much water leaves the pool.
For the Mets to outbid Boston for Martinez, they would probably have to offer him at least a guaranteed three-year contract worth more than $13 million a season with an attainable fourth option year.
Yes, Martinez is still effective. However, Leiter’s ERA has been far more impressive over the last few seasons, and though he is six-years younger, like Leiter, he can’t get out of the sixth inning on most occasions and is limited to 100 pitchers per game. Yet, Leiter is asking for half of what Martinez will get - a figure the Mets were not willing to pay.
On The Big Three...
Does the trade for Jason Kendall, and the additional payroll, make it more likely that A’s GM Billy Beane will look to trade on of Mark Mulder, Barry Zito or Tim Hudson?
“Since midsummer, there’s been speculation with a number of our higher-profile players, and it’s probably best to let people continue to speculate,” Beane told the Mercury News. “To predict what we’re going to do over the winter is probably fruitless to attempt.”
That doesn’t sound like a denial.
Ken Rosenthal believes if a trade were to occur, it would most likely be Hudson or Zito, in exchange for “three affordable youngsters.”
Hopefully, Minaya tries to find out.
On Feedback…
Towards the end of last week, MetsBlog posted a request for feedback. Thank you to all of you who participated. It was greatly appreciated. Over the next few days, you will notice some changes to MetsBlog. Please be patient with our adjustment.
For more Mets news, check out SportSpyder.com
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The News…
“I had a conversation with Al and his agent last night and we both decided to explore other options that are out there. We came to an agreement and we’ll revisit [negotiations] after the holidays,” Mets GM Omar Minaya told reporters last night. “We agree that we got to a point that there were options that Al wanted to explore and that we wanted to explore so let’s look at those options and see where we are. It’s fair to say that we got to a point where we said the free agent season is in front of us. We’ve worked at this [with Leiter]. It started before I got here. Through the process we’ve talked to him about different contract proposals with the free agent market and the clubs that are available to him and all. We have options we want to review and Al has to review what’s in his best interest.”
Jon Heyman of Newsday reported during his weekly appearance on the Michael Kay Radio Show on ESPN 1050, that the Mets may look to pursue RHP Matt Clement as a possible replacement for Leiter. Adam Rubin of the Daily News claims that Eric Milton and Brad Radke also appear to be on the “Mets’ radar.”
“It will probably take at least a four-year deal to sign Pavano”, his agent, Scott Shapiro, told the New York Times, yesterday. “We’ve been very clear. Carl is looking for a home.” Pavano will travel to Detroit, Baltimore and Seattle, leading up to the winter meetings from Dec. 10 to 13 in Anaheim, Calif. “It’s very possible a deal could be done during the winter meetings,” Shapiro said. Minaya told the Times that he would contacting Shapiro, in hopes of arranging a meeting to occur during the Winter Meetings in Anaheim December 10-13.
From the Boston Herald: “Move over, Red Sox and Yankees…The Mets have joined the table in the hunt for Pedro Martinez.” According to multiple baseball sources, the Herald claims the Mets have “significant interest” in signing Martinez. The Red Sox have reportedly offered Martinez a two-year, $22.5 million, while Martinez has been adamant about obtaining a four-year deal wherever he lands. Kevin Kernan of the New York Post believes the new position stems from the following: “The big thinking in Metland is that they might as well go after the big names, since they are big market.”
The Notes…
Kevin Czerwinski of MLB.com reports that, although the Mets have not contacted Richie Sexson or his agent, Casey Close, Sexson has made it known he is very interested in playing for the Mets. “Sure, I’m interested in the Mets,” Sexson told MLB.com. “They are committed to winning. Obviously, New York is a tough place and all, but they have great players now and are just a couple of players away. It’s definitely an option. I’ve heard nothing but great things about Willie Randolph. I’ve talked to [Jason] Giambi and a couple of other guys who have said he’s a great man. He’s seen a system that’s run the best possible way to run one [with the Yankees], so that’s a positive.”
The Mets hired former Chicago White Sox manager Jerry Manuel as first base and outfield coach, Sandy Alomar Sr. as bench coach, Manny Acta as third base coach, Guy Conti as bullpen coach and Ray Ramirez as the team’s head trainer. Where is Mookie? During his interview with MetsBlog, Will Carroll, medical exeprt at Baseball Prospectus, raved about Ramirez’s skills, proclaiming his acquisition by the Mets as a “great hire.”
Rudy Jaramillo agreed to a new contract with the Texas Rangers.
Following a well-earned vacation, Adam Rubin of the Daily News returns with the following two tidbits, 1) Cuban defector Alay Soler was let go by his winter league team after compiling an 0-2 record and 5.28 ERA in five appearances, and 2) though first-round pick Philip Humber remains unsigned, an “ultimatum may be coming soon to move that process along.”
According to the Star-Telegram, the Mets offered C Mike Piazza to the Rangers for 2B Alfonso Soriano. The paper states that, according to Rangers officials, Alfonso Soriano won’t be traded, and that the Mets aren’t willing to trade SS Jose Reyes.
Note: If you would like to submit a question for our monthly mailbag, send us an email to mailbag@metsblog.com
The Tango…
Minaya told the New York Times that he has not talked with the agent for 1B Carlos Delgado.
The Journal News reports that Minaya has been in touch with the agent for 1B Carlos Delgado.
Note: If you would like to write a Fan Editorial for Metsblog, click here: I Want to Write!
Metsblog.com’s Take On…
Leiter…
It’s obvious that the Mets will have a new name in their starting rotation, and it will likely be one of Pavano, Milton, Radke, Martinez, Clement and so on. Who it’ll be specifically doesn’t matter today, nearly as much as Minaya’s shift in direction from the traditional mindset of the Mets.
Acquiring Sosa is an old school Mets move. Accepting Leiter’s aging skills and acquiring a younger, stronger free agent to take his place is new school. And I welcome the breath of fresh air. Let’s hope it sticks.
Piazza…
So far we’ve heard rumors out of Texas, Anaheim and Los Angeles that the Mets are trying to move Piazza. As the saying goes: where there’s smoke there’s fire. In the case of Texas and Anaheim, both teams have admitted their need for a designated hitter. However, both teams were unwilling to take on Piazza unless the Mets take on a significant portion of his salary.
In speaking with Ken Rosenthal of the Sporting News last night, it sounds as though Anaheim is the best fit to obtain Piazza, but that they have so many other pressing needs, and would prefer to keep their financial liabilities limited until the Carlos Beltran and Randy Johnson markets shape up, that any deal sending Piazza to the Angels will have to remain on the back burner for quite some time.
Soriano…
Two different Texas newspapers have reported the Mets offering Piazza or OF Cliff Floyd, not to mention all the Reyes rumors from last season, for 2B Alfonso Soriano, who has openly stated his refusal to play the outfield.
Again, where there’s smoke there’s fire.
Why are the Mets so high on Soriano.
Ugh!
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Soriano is the most overrated player in baseball.
Keep him away from Shea as he’s a train wreck of Steve Phillips-proportion waiting to happen.
“I’ll play in New York,”…
We’ve heard that Pavano, Radke, Sexson and Delgado, as well as countless others through the years, say they’d love to play for the Mets. Yet, nothing ever comes of it. Most of that blame can be placed on a set of confused owners. However, a substantial part can be attributed to the strategy of a sports agent, luring as many big market teams into the bidding of his client as possible.
For this reason, I put little stock into these comments made by players to reporters about their desires to be in New York.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
On Thanksgiving…
Metsblog will not be posting daily updates through the holiday weekend.
However, should a major signing or trade occur by the Mets, rest assured we will post it and provide commentary, as well.
Have a great holiday, and be thankful for whatever makes you happy.
The Confidence Rating…
On a scale of 1-10, 10 being most confident and 1 being no confidence, how confident are you in the Mets ability to make the playoffs within three years time?
For more Mets news, check out SportSpyder.com
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The Notes and News…
The Korea Times reports that Jae Seo has asked the Mets to trade him. “I told my agent that I want to play for a team that really needs me and where I can start regularly,” Seo told the Times. Seo went 5-10 with a 4.90 ERA in 21 starts last season for the Mets. “I told him that I had some troubles with (Peterson),” Seo said.
When asked whether or not the Angels are still interested in acquiring C Mike Piazza, Mark Saxson, Angels beat reporter from the O.C. Register, told Metsblog’s Matthew Cerrone, “I just think it’s unlikely at this point that the Angels are interested in Piazza, A) for financial reasons, B) because I think they’re intent on getting a center fielder and/or a short stop right now. I think it could happen eventually, but I don’t think it’s a front burner thing right now.” To listen, or read, the entire interview, check out MetsBlog Radio.
The New York Post reports that, according to sources, Yankees coach Rick Down has turned down a managerial assignment in the Yankee minor leagues – therefore, when his contract runs out, the Mets will sign him to be their new batting coach.
The Star-Ledger reports that Mets GM Omar Minaya and LHP Al Leiter will meet today.
Minaya told the New York Times that Carlos Delgado‘s representatives have contacted him, but no dialogue has occured because the Mets’ talent evaluators are concerned about Delgado’s defense. Minaya tells the Times that many options for first base exist in the trade market.
He Said, She Said…
The Daily News: “Mookie Wilson interviewed for the first-base coaching job last week, but he isn’t expected to be brought back.”
The Star-Ledger: “Minaya said he hopes to announce the coaching staff today, which will include the return of Mookie Wilson.”
The Quote…
“I couldn’t be more excited about staying here. I knew New York was the place for me. I look forward to helping the Mets get back into the playoffs.” – Kris Benson, following the News of his return to the Mets, as quoted by the New York Post.
“Our policy is nobody’s untouchable.” – GM Omar Minaya, as quoted by the New York Post.
Metsblog.com’s Take On…
Seo…
Both Vern Rhule and Peterson insisted Seo learn a two-seam fastball that cut in on righties, but he was reluctant to make the adjustment. Be it a straight refusal or a communication breakdown, it’s obvious the Mets should accommodate Seo’s request.
It’s a shame, because he is a nice kid and full of talent. However, if he wants elsewhere and doesn’t fit into the team’s plans, I just as soon see him traded.
Good luck, kid.
Laundry…
Lee Jenkins, of the New York Times, makes a case for acquiring Sosa today. He also writes the following: “Whatever Piazza, Garciaparra and Sosa accomplished for years no longer seems to matter to many fans, who demand production in the present and are more likely to invest loyalty in a team than in a player.”
Uh, yea, Lee…We’re Mets fans, above and beyond everything else. Jerry Seinfeld was right when he said sports’ fans ultimately are just rooting for laundry. And I believe that’s a good thing.
I respect players.
But, I love my team.
There’s a bid difference.
This day and age, with free agency acting as the piano in an exhausting, Hot Stove game of musical chairs, I think the fan’s dedication is honorable.
I’m proud of this, not ashamed.
Benson…
“When we traded for Kris, our evaluators here really felt Kris was a pitcher who has not fulfilled his potential,” GM Omar Minaya told the Star-Ledger.
Hmmm….Brad Radke, who is just two years older than Benson, has five 12 win seasons, nearly three times more wins for his career, and five more seasons under his belt, and also wants to come to the Mets, will earn roughly $7 to $8 million per year having fulfilled his potential.
That being said, how come Benson, who hasn’t fulfilled his potential, is getting paid the same money that Radke will get?
The Confidence Rating…
On a scale of 1-10, 10 being most confident and 1 being no confidence, how confident are you in the Mets ability to make the playoffs next season?
For more Mets news, check out SportSpyder.com
