Comments on: preGame: Mets vs. Phillies (Game1)

By: VCarver

VCarver — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 18:40:58 +0000

Good research. Thanks for the links and info.

By: VCarver

VCarver — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 18:40:32 +0000

I would think you’d need to know the win expectancy rate of not bunting vs. bunting (composite WER under each circumstances) in order to make that assumption.

Did anyone give the WER for having Castillo not bunt?

By: MealTicket

MealTicket — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 17:44:53 +0000

The deeper you get into it, the more complicated the stats become. There are so many intangibles to factor out. The best I can do is pass along the following link. Check out the discussion that follows, and you’ll get a glimpse of some of the variables. I know I promised proof that squeezing was wrong in that situation. It’s harder to do than I thought. I still think Willie made the right choice. But baseball’s a complicated game.

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/when_should_you_exercise_a_suicide_squueze/#comments

By: jamie

jamie — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 17:42:06 +0000

here’s some interesting stuff…I don’t have info on the success rate of a bunt attempt, but the following is the win expectancy rate of each possible outcome of squeezing in the 8th, tie game with one out and man on 1 and 3, home team batting:

one out, 1st and 3rd: WER = .6667 (starting point of squeeze)

Failed squeeze, out at home, 2out, 1st and 2nd: WER = .5200

Failed squeze, batter K’s or pops out, 2 out, 1st and 3rd: WER = .5714

Failed squeeze, DP, out at home and 1st, man on 2nd: WER = .6406 (this takes us into the ninth, and assumes the visiting team doesn’t score in the top of the inning)

So in three possible failed attempts, the win expectancy drops by as much as 17%

Now if the squeeze is successful:

3rd scores, batter safe at 1st, still one out, runner advances to 2nd: WER = .9412

3rd scores, batter out at first, 2 out, runner on 2nd: WER = .9546

So the win expectancy in those outcomes increases by almost 30%.

It looks like the reward of playing for one run in that circumstance outweighs the risk: a 30 % increase vs at most a 17% decrease.

Of course, this doesn’t take into account the success rate of Castillo laying down the bunt, but it’s pretty interesting on its own. Looks like willie should’ve bunted.

By: ghobot

ghobot — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 16:10:11 +0000

yeah post it. i am really curious! i am a stats guy.

By: MealTicket

MealTicket — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 15:57:51 +0000

The reason I didn’t give all the stats is that it all gets fairly complicated. The RE from swinging away is far far superior to the RE from squeezing. (If anyone’s that interested, I can try to post the relative probabilities. But it’s true; believe me). You’d rather have that runner on third with fewer than two out when your sluggers come up. Many many things can go wrong with a squeeze: a pitchout; a missed bunt (yes, even from a good bunter) ; a missed sign (big danger with a rookie on third) etc.

Also, since it’s in the 8th inning (and not the 9th, when the second run doesn;t matter), you’d like to have MORE than one run, if at all possible. We’ve seen plenty of times that one run hasn’t held up.

Anyway, Willie made the right call.

By: DWright is King

DWright is King — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 15:56:45 +0000

Also in that inning…when Gomez stole second, the ball was thrown into center field, Gomez wasn’t paying attention to his third base coach and didn’t sieze the opportunity to run to third. If he was paying attention, he would’ve scored when Reyes hit the single and the we would’ve won. I guess they didn’t show that on TV. I was sitting right by third base and alomar was pissed!! He was pointing to Gomez who was still at second and pointing at his eyes and ears yelling at him that he should’ve been paying attention. Rookie mistake I guess

By: Constnza81V2.0

Constnza81V2.0 — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 15:43:49 +0000

Honestly, I understand all this, and people know, I’m one of Willie’s biggest fans around here.

But you have an exceptional bunter in Castillo and your fastest runner in Gomez on third. One out. Your hard up for runs. Your not swinging the bats well. I honestly would have called for the squeeze there. Worst case scenario you have Reyes in scoring position, Castillo on first with your two RBI guys coming up to hit. It’s not like it was an 8-8 game and the Mets were swinging the bats well all night.

Either way, at the end of the day the game was lost in that inning. Wheter its a strategical failure or poor execution by players, you HAVE to get that run in there in that situation.

Just win today and get this Philly monkey off our backs. I don’t get why this team seems to be our kryptonite all of a sudden.

By: ghobot

ghobot — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 15:37:02 +0000

no i get there is an argument against it, but why is it bad to attempt a suicide with two men on? case isnt closed because i dont get what this source you cite is getting at. that book is about percentages yet it provides no statistical evidence why a squeeze is a bad call. i am not saying it is a good call, but no one, not you, not willie has provided me with ample information why its a bad call.

By: ghobot

ghobot — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 15:32:31 +0000

hey i love willie. but why is it a bad play to squeeze and take the lead in the 8th? i dont understand the logic. i wish willie would elaborate there. maybe you can? would you be upset if castillo hit a sac fly? of course not. why would a suicide be bad at that moment?