|
|
|
In his blog for ESPN.com, Buster Olney writes that the Angels, Dodgers and D’Backs likely have the best collection of prospects to trade for Twins LHP Johan Santana.
Olney goes on to speculate and suggest the Twins trade Santana and SS Jason Bartlett to the Mets for SS Jose Reyes, OF Carlos Gomez and a young pitcher like RHP Mike 
Pelfrey.
…that is way, way too much for me to even think about right now, let alone break down and discuss…that being said, i still believe it would be a huge mistake to trade reyes, although i firmly expect Omar Minaya to work overtime on acquiring santana, which is the type of move that will redeem his status and get fans feeling positive again…
Reyes goes nowhere.
Delgado should:
http://cmsimg.c-n.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=B1&Date=20071002&Category=SPORTS01&ArtNo=71001021&Ref=AR&Profile=1011&MaxW=300
How can anyone who is a serious met fan even entertain the idea of trading Jose? He is not even close to being in his prime. He had a bad second half of the season. And you are going to trade him for a guy who only pitches for you once every 5 days? Who plays shortstop for you while Reyes is gone?? Let the experts who run the Mets on a daily basis find out whyrReyes had major problems the last couple of months. Unfortunately it looks like Willie is keeping his job. So, let Randolph earn his keep as a manager and help Reyes become the optimum player he can be.
I entertain the idea because we have 2 World Series championships built on the backs of dominant starting pitching, not speedy shortstops. I entertain it because Reyes was exposed the second half of this season, and his normally exuberant attitude turned to sulking in the dugout. I entertain it because the fans turned on him, and who knows if he’ll ever be able to win them back. And most of all, I entertain it because Santana has won multiple Cy Young Awards, and because the greatest shortstop of all time is going to be a free agent as soon as the Yankees get bounced from the playoffs.
Mets should keep their home grown talent.
If only for his defense, Reyes is the best shortstop the Mets have ever had. He has tons of heart, yet is still young. I believe he’ll contribute to many winning seasons.
While I’m disappointed with the ending to his season, I’ll stick by Reyes – he is the heart and soul of the Mets – is still young, and should not be moved. He, along with Wright and Beltran, should be the core to build around.
They can’t trade reyes. if they do I will never forgive it. I’ve been amets fan all my life, and this guy has one bad month, albeit at crunch time, and you trade him? he’s got more talent and more potential than any player in the game and he may be one of the most unique players to ever play the game.
He’s 24. He stole more bases than anyone in ten years. He hit 320 throgh most of the season. He has pop, he’s an incredible fielder, and he’s 24! He’s only 24. In 5 years he’ll be in his prime. He’s incredible. This stretch wa bad for lots of mets, Hopefuly reyes learns a lesson, with help from the vets and the management and he becomes even better asa result. If the mets trade jose reyes for anything they have lost any faith I still have in them. ALong with Wright and beltran this guy is the new york mets right now, and without him we will spend the rest of our lives watching him prosper on soe other team and do incredible things.
yeah, reyes goes nowhere – REPEATEDLY!!
Trading Reyes for a one-year rental is cataclysmically stupid.
I don’t even know if that is a word, but it should be.
I agree completely – Reyes is 24. You don’t trade him due to an awful month.
I don’t think this is the case of wanting to trade him for an awful month…….well…some people want to…..the MAJORITY of the talk is about what it will take to acquire a #1 starting pitcher.
Trading a 24year old, pure leadoff hitter, shortstop
for a
28 year old #1 starter (don’t look at his record this year….all you need to do is look at his other stats…..in fact, compare them to Becketts……and you’ll find that they’re close or better in most categories)
Is it worth it for a rental? No
Is it worth it if you can work out an extension…….it may very well be….
Its good and well to say….just sign him in 09 when hes a free agent…..but there is no guarantee he signs w/ us. If you work out an extension as a condition of the trade….there is your guarantee.
There would have to be a long term deal in place with Santana – 5-6 years with major dollars – in order for this to make sense. If that can be done – I would pull the trigger. Pitchers like Santana are few and far between. If not – it doesn;t make sense for a one year rental.
Even in that scenario, we essentially traded Reyes for an exclusive negotiating window with Santana, in which we are likely going to have to pay him market price ANYWAY. He’s not going to take a discount to play in NY. That’s not the way it works here.
It’s a stupid move with panic written all over it. Wait a year. Pay out of your ass then.
If he doesn’t agree…..then there is no trade…..
no risk there
NO!
There’s no way Reyes would be traded, despite his awful Sept. He’ll turn it around the way Wright did earlier in the season.
That said, I hope Omar can come up with a package to get Santana over here. Some combo of Milledge, Heilman, Perez, Gomez, Pelfry and Humber (3 max) might get it done – as long as Omar is smart enough to get a window to negotiate a long term contract. Santana is a FA after 2008.
Heilman is a FA
This year? I thought the Mets had control of him until 2009.
Heilmann isn”t a FA until 2010, I don’t think. We have him under control for 2 more years …
From what I am hearing he is a FA. I don’t know a good online source on this. HotFoot used to have a list but doesn’t anymore. Maybe ESPN has something.
I stand corrected RotoWorld has his contract status as Free Agent in 2011 but he is Arbitration Eligible from here to 2010
go to MLB4U.com and it has FAs after this year, 08, 09, and even 10 i think…
I am curious as to whether the Twins would prefer Maine to Perez, because they would control Maine for longer and cheaper.
But I think Maine (or to a lesser extent Perez) is an absolute necessity in any potential deal for Santana. Maine, Pelfrey and Gomez/Milledge as a start for Santana. Maybe someone like Kevin Mulvey in addition, or one of your bullpen arms like Kunz.
I would prefer to keep Maine as he is looking to be a very good, #3/4 RHP. If it takes throwing Pelfry into the mix (along with Milledge/Gomez and Heilman) so be it. I just hope Omar would get more than Santana back in return (e.g., a proven decent reliever)
i will have some of what you are smoking
Again…..yes…we would all prefer to hold on to Maine….and send them Mota for Santanna straight up.
Maine > Pelf
Why would the twins just say…oh well we wanted Maine…but we’ll take your “prospect” that crapped the bed this season instead?
Need to give up talent to get talent……unless your last name is Duquette
care to elaborate?
I said Pelfry AND Perez and Milledge and Heilman, not just Pelfry
And I’d rather have Maine than Pelf………the two are not equal……sure I’d rather give up Pelf than Maine……..but that prob won’t fly if I’m the twins
WE DONT HAVE THE TALENT TO GET SANTANA! lets all save ourselfs alot of energy typing this nonsense mark my words unless every other team in the market for him decides “screw it we’ll just sign him in after 08″ we have no shot at this guy. I pray omar doesnt pull his tunnel vision act and let other good players and deals pass by while he focuses on and fails to get santana, leading to an uneventful offseason like last yr with zito.
JefJarrett – so in your equation, where does Perez fit in?
I agree Maine is of much greater value than Pelfry, but is Maine greater than or equal to the value of Perez in your equation?
And, is Perez + Pelfry > Maine?
Ummm….I would rather have Maine, because I feel he would be a more solid player than Perez/Pelf down the line.
Perez obviously has better “stuff” but so does Mota and Zambrano for that matter……
I see what you’re saying though.
Man…this off season is going to be nuts!! I also have a feeling that we will be riding the emotional rollercoaster just as much during the off season as we did during the season itself.
Its amazing how quickly Reyes has turned into a goat in this town. This is a guy that was only a few months ago being touted as one the best players in the game. I can’t trade him after a rough few months. Lets see how he responds in ‘08. If he still looks completely lost at the deadline, then MAYBE you think about moving him for only an impact player.
So what you’re saying is…if he still looks lost…………why would other teams want him if he’s “lost it”.
Again..>DONT TAKE THIS AS ME SAYING I WANT TO TRADE HIM.
But what kills me is people never want to trade talent/prospects/etc…until they appear to be useless….then they’re all for packaging them up and shipping them out…..why would anyone else want them!?!?!?
Ohhh we can’t trade our prospects that are doing so well in AA ball…they will be the next willy mays…..then they come up to the majors……and suck…..now all of a sudden we can trade them…and expect the same value in return……….
Reyes isn’t a prospect though. It is widely known what he is capable of. I would be willing to bet that if he were made available at the deadline and he was having a down year, almost every single team in the league would be calling Omar. Their thinking would be that he would need a change of scenery.
I agree…..again..just speaking in general terms. Reyes is not considered a prospect.
JJ, i completely agree with you thats why guys like gomez and even milledge last year should never have been exposed to the MLB, prospects are the riskiest investment, you dont have to trade them all but def should always use some as trade bait the problem is every since the kazmir thing we have held every prospect we have, its stupid they wont ALL pan out, just dont trade any cant miss 1st rounders for bad 30 yr old pitchers anymore thats all.
Thats it!
Right know are only true prospects are guys like Fernando Martinez who have not stepped on a MLB field. You can chalk up the way the Mets handled Gomez and Milledge as another thing Omar screwed up.
so Omar messed up because 3/4 of our outfield was on the DL at the same time, and he called up the most ML ready minor leaguers we had to try to keep us in the pennant race? What, would you have preferred him to keep Milledge and Gomez at AAA all year, having minor league all-star years, and keep calling up Ricky Ledee and other over-the-hill hacks, who aren’t as good right now as Milledge and Gomez?
And I am not saying reyes falls into this category……
its just an overall observation….
You need to give up talent to get talent……
Pelfry in the minors was worth more than Pelf now
Milledge in the minors was worth more than Milledge now
Humber in the minors was worth more than Humber now
We rolled the dice by keeping those guys……but we have to live with whatever they become now that we’ve done so……….
I do think Pelf and Humber will become back end of the rotation guys…..I think Pelf was turning a corner a bit towards the end of the season…..
Milledge…I have no idea what to expect outta him until he stops airmailing the cutoff guy, and waving at low/outside junk
I think Milledge has turned himself around. He was definitely more effective in the majors this year than last. His value improved in 2007.
i agree jef, no one wanted to trade pelfrey,humber,gomez,milledge for haren last offseason because they were bonafide superstars without playing a mlb game! Most prospects are meant to be used as trade chips for established players! i’d take haren in a heartbeat for all of the prospects together
Reyes should have been the goat last year, along with Wright, after their play in the playoffs. Beltran took the brunt because he was the last thing we saw….it’s nice to see the fans taking off the blinders when it comes to their homegrown stars…
Reyes hit .250 in the second half. That’s lousy for a 8-hole hitter. If he does the same in the first half next year you won’t be able to get a bag of baseballs for the kid.
I doubt Reyes gets traded, but he needs to pull his head out of his ass. Watching him in the second half was reminiscent of Gooden & Straw when they got into drugs. I’m hoping there isn’t something wrong in Reyes’ personal life.
watching reyes in the 2nd half was like watching reyes in 04
…which is about the time Rickey Henderson became the 1B coach. Hmmmmm…
the only way my faith will be rewarded will be if they aquire a big name SP and big name number 5 type of hitter like a dunn
If you can get him signed to an extension…then I would consider it. Not for a rental.
And those out there that feel any of the mets “prospects” can get the deal done are just delusional. In the eyes of others….our “prospects” suck. Milledge, Heilman, Perez, Gomez, etc etc….don’t bother me w/ that….other teams can blow us out of the water with that.
That is WAY too much for Johann, as much as I want him in a Mets’ uniform. No way, no how!
better off dealing 2 of our 3 OF prospects (Milledge, FMart, Gomez)….Pelfrey OR Humber….and others…if that won’t get it done, you’ll have to pursue other avenues.
Reyes goes nowhere.
No way, Jose! If they can do a trade without Jose, fine. Otherwise just wait 1 more year and Santana should be a free agent a year from now. Get him then.
trading reyes, even for santtana, would be a collosal mistake, we’d instantly go to a team that loses 8 -6 games to a team that loses 4 – 3 games.
Reyes is not going anywhere, especially if you are talking about a player in the last year of his contract.
Would I do Gomez/Milledge (Hunter’s replacement), Pelfrey, Heilman (I think he’s still under our control) and another minor league player? Absolutely, but it may not be enough. I am sure they will ask for more major league ready players, and we don’t have that many…
How about Pelfrey, Milledge & FMart?
Not enough
you have to throw a proven pitcher into that offer for the Twins to even consider it.
Who says you have to throw a proven pitcher? For the most part guys like Santana who are 1 year rent a players do not bring back much major league ready talent. He is def leaving the Twins. They will take as many prospects as possible and if 1 or 2 pan out they will be happy because in the long run they would get nothing for him if they do not trade him.
Because, as others on this board have said, other teams have better prospects than the Mets do. If they’re going to give up Santana for some “top” Mets prospects, Omar will have to sweeten the deal a litte with a proven pitcher.
I posted this last night, but people seem to forget that the Red Sox trade Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr. (both still prospects at the time) for Pedro Martinez after the 1997 season (in which Pedro was far better than Johan this past season). They barely gave up anything. Other teams might have better prospects, but they also probably can’t afford to sign Johan, so why would they give up the prospects for him? The Mets have the best combination of money, people to trade, and willingness to make the trade. The Mets have proved they’ll overpay and overtrade for starting pitching, and Johan’s as good as it gets. I’d give up whatever the Twins want for him, and I have a strong feeling Minaya gets this deal done. It’s the only way to apologize to the fans for the disgrace of the past month.
Matt,
Who do you expect Omar to trade for Johan? Arizona, and both LA Clubs have MUCH more highly touted prospects, and many more of them then we do.
It was gonna cost us Carlos Gomez for Rauch or Cordero a few months ago, Pelfrey probably hurt his value this year, and we’re talking about the best pitcher on the planet.
I hate stories and fans saying things like, Omar is gonna go get Santana, that is the Yankee fan mentality.
If you want Santana, ask yourself who is the player who you WOULDNT want to get rid of, and there you go, that’s what its going to take.
considering Omar got Castillo for AA prospects, it’s not out of the realm of possibiity that he could get Santana for a trade that does not include Reyes or Wright. Santana is unhappy with the Twins right now anyway.
It will cost some proven players (in addition to some prospects) but not necessarily any core players.
I want Santana.
You know who I’d give up?
George Washington, about $120 million of him… next year.
Try 200 of em…
at least….
Yeah, thanks Brian Sabean!
Here’s the stumbling block for me. Is this the ONLY way we can get Santana? Does he WANT a sign and trade? Because if we can just wait until next year, give up nothing and throw a ton of money at him as a FA, that would make more sense than trading Reyes.
except then the Mets are gonna suck next year. They need a change of direction, and Johan is that change of direction. Every Mets championship team has been built on starting pitching, and since they have been incapable of developing a decent starter for about 20 years now, they’re gonna have to go trade for the best.
You can’t compare what one team requested for x player to what another team would want for y player, especially when one of those teams is run by Jim Bowden.
That being said, the general thought of what it would take to net Santana is a MLB ready SP and OF, and a quality prospect, not at positions the Twins currently have youth.
Keep in mind, no team in baseball is going to trade multiple top tier prospects for essentially a rental player. Also, the Twins aren’t going to sell Santana and wait 3-4 years for the trade to even become worth it for them, so don’t think the Mets are at a huge disadvantage in comparison to a club with a better prospect pool, such as Arizona.
And who knows, the Twins might just keep him, hope Lirano is healthy next year and that is a hell of a 1-2 punch.
If you’re not giving up a Reyes, it’ll take:
Heilmann
Oliver Perez
Milledge
Pelfrey
Gomez
Not enough.
way too much.
What did the Braves have to give up to get Teixieria and Dotel? Saltimacchia (sp?) and a couple of prospects?
There is no quick fix to this team. We’re not 1 player away from a good rotation/bullpen.
Trading Reyes would be ludacris. Trading our entire farm system for one guy would be even worse.
As far as the rotation, in my opinion our best bet is to go out and find a few guys who aren’t going to LOSE the game for you. 6 innings of 3 run ball with the Mets lineup should be more than enough to win games.
With the bullpen, your guess is as good as mine.
My point is, we don’t need a fire sale with this team. That would be a definite step backwards.
Totally agree. What plagued us this year was not a “missing link” that would have taken us to the promised land.
We had a bunch of pitchers who couldn’t get out of the 5th or 6th inning, a burned-out sub-par bullpen, and a lackadaisical attitude down the stretch.
Hopefully Omar can bring in some half-way descent innings eaters in the off-season to replace our half-way descent 5-inning starters.
In an earlier post someone suggested Livan Hernandez and Silva from Minnesota.
Revamping the bullpen … I don’t envy Omar for having to deal with that one.
At the very least, don’t make knee-jerk decisions based on this collapse.
ugh…Livan Hernandez? You can’t be serious. You really think Livan Hernandez would have stopped the collapse this year? They need a stopper more than an innings eater. And how do you know the offense will be as good next year? They were worse this year than last, what if they regress again?
silva is horrible. that’d be like adding trachsel. let the phillies be stupid enough to bring back silva in their joke of a ballpark.
Either Omar gets Johan or he should go home
Because without a true stopper, this team will go nowhere.
I’m sure he won’t get Johan, he’ll bring in a few more 40+ retreads
Regardless of the price and whether Santana signs on beyond 2008?
No, I do assume that Omar won’t make the mistake the franchise made with Hampton, and would sign Johan to an extension ASAP
If Johan declares that he’s hell-bound to be a FA no matter what, then you have to stay away or pay a massively reduced price for him
Good point and thanks for letting me clarify
Follow up question – are you disappointed that Omar did not offer more than than Sabean (I think it was $118M/7) to get Zito last offseason?
I know you weren’t asking me, but I’m gonna answer anyway. My dad mentioned at the game on Sunday that “well, thank god we didn’t sign Zito. He only went 10-13 with an ERA over 4.”
But guess what, if we had signed Zito, we would have used him instead of Pelfrey, who went 3-8, and the replacements for Pelfrey, who went a combined 8-12 (I think. I checked the stats quickly). Put that together, and you get 11-20 from the #5 starter. If our number 5 starter had been 3 games under .500 (Zito) rather than 9, we win the division by 5 games. And, Zito’s record probably would have been a little better pitching with our offense, rather than pitching for the San Francisco Retirement Home. Also, Zito is an innings eater, and would have spared our bullpen a few innings over the course of the season. Was he worth the millions that San Fran overpaid him? Probably not, at least for them. But had we paid that money and made the playoffs, would anyone be complaining?
he would’ve been booed off the field in april. if beltran gets booed for all the production he gives do you honestly think zito would’ve gotten a pass? w/ a contract like that the fans would’ve expected more than a five-starters output. he would’ve been booed loudly and often and perhaps would’ve gone worse than he did in frisco this season. overpaying for zito would’ve been a huge mistake and handicapped the franchise for wanting to pay any other better players at a huge contract such as the santana-type.
i want santana as much as the next fan but what do we gain by giving up perez/maine? they both made tremendous progress this year and if we swap one for santana who is going to fill their spot? we had enough trouble this year finding a #5, i think santana can only be an addition to OP/JM, not a fill in.
if we HAVE to give up a starting pitcher to get him, i think we wait until he is a FA. we just dont have anyone to give.
I understand what you’re saying, but I disagree. Upgrading from either Maine or Perez to Santana is absolutely worth it. I love both Maine and Perez, and think they’re gonna continue to be pretty good pitchers, in the 13-16 wins a year category. Johan, however, is an 18-20 wins a year pitcher on a good team. He’s an absolute upgrade over either of them. Additionally, he’s only 2 years older than Maine, and 3 years older than Perez (I believe), so it’s not like you’re trading a 20 year old 15 game winner for a 35 year old former Cy Young pitcher. Johan is still in his prime!
Saying you wouldn’t want to give up Maine or Perez for Johan is like saying “sure Wagners a great closer, but Braden Looper is pretty good too. Why give him up to get Wagner?” (I know we didn’t trade Looper for Wagner, but we got rid of him so we could get Wagner, so the analogy stands)
I’m not so sure the analogy works. A team needs only one closer; a team needs five starters.
true, but again, it’s not like they’re trading a starter for a position player. They’d be trading a starter for a better starter. Sure, they’d still have to find a 5th starter, but their top 4 would be instantly better.
Geez, they want Wright too?
Beat it Minnesota.
Reyes shouldnt be traded, beaten with a Stick yes, but not traded. I think willie needs to go back to the way he was when he 1st took over the team. as much as i hated it , i think he needs to go back to the no facial Hair rule as a start, he needs to implement Discipline on this team.
As Far as getting Santana i think it is a major deal that needs to be explored, bu ti dont think they should trade away the future for him.
If it were a last resort i would say maybe trade Beltran, lets face it, Beltran did come through with somebig hits, but when it came down to the HUGE hits that were needed, his bat dissapeared. Other than last year, his mets career thus far has been Mediocre and Injury filled. Why not give Gomez a shot in CF or Fernando Martinez.
why not give them a shot? b/c you have to replace a gold glove CFer who led the team in homers and RBI’s. great idea.
Millege, Pelfrey, Humber, and Gomez are not even top prospects. If the Mets offered all 4 to the Twins, they would still turn it down.
Humber #3 overall pick – 4/5 starter at best
Pelfrey – #7 overall pick – 4/5 starter at best
Millege – #12 overall pick – 5′ 8″ outfielder, who no one likes
Nice drafting
hmmmm the Mets certainly need to hire you. You seem to have it down pat. Even the spelling.
3/4 of those players are in Baseball America’s top 100 prospects in the MLB (Milledge isn’t considered a prospect anymore)
But hey, what do they know? Someone give robmenna Omar’s number I’m sure he could pick the winners.
im gonna defend robmenna here, considering pelfrey and humber were top 10 draft picks and milledge was top 15 they are definitely not as good as they shouldve been, now at the time pelfrey was a cant miss pick so you CANT knock them for that. But I will say as much as we hate steve phillips the man drafted pretty well, he drafted wright, reyes, and kazmir.
Is the problem who’s Omar is drafting or is it our coaches/trainers in the minor leagues? All three of those players were considered, perhaps safe, but very good picks at the time. But if the Mets don’t have the right personnel to cultivate these guys, then what difference does it make?
a) Reyes wasn’t a draft pick, he was a foreign player and was signed by the international scouting department (which, I believe, was still headed by Minaya at the time Reyes was signed, though I could be wrong, Minaya might have been with Montreal already)
b) True, Phillips drafted Wright and Kazmir, but he also spent a top 15 pick on Jason Tyner, a speedy but not blazing fast outfielder who hadn’t hit a homerun since little league.
c) Both Pelfrey and Milledge were top 3 prospects in their draft class who fell to the Mets for different concerns (all the small market teams were afraid of the bonus Pelfrey was gonna ask for, and Milledge had the whole statutory rape case thing), and the Mets manned up and drafted them anyway. Brilliant drafting, in my opinion
d) Humber was also a top 5 prospect. That was supposed to be a can’t miss draft class for pitchers, with 3 guys from Rice and a guy from Old Dominion. Of those guys, the only one who has already had success at the MLB level is Justin Verlander, who was taken with the 2nd pick, so it’s not like the Mets passed on him and took Humber. Humber is almost definitely gonna end up better than Wade Townsend, and could possibly still be better than Jeff Niemann.
The draft is such a crapshoot. Back in 2001, the Minnesota Twins had the top pick, and almost every baseball “expert” slammed them for not taking the best college pitcher since Tom Seaver with the #1 pick because of signability concerns, and instead going with a hometown high school catcher, who was not considered one of the top 5 prospects in the draft, and who most people thought was going to go to college to play football rather than stick with baseball. 7 years later, is there a single team in Major League Baseball who would rather have Mark Prior than Joe Mauer?
Keep Reyes…
Matt, I feel bad for you bc you are gonna waste so much time this winter writing about trade scenarios for the mets and santana only to see him go to a team with MUCH better prospects than us.
The Twins won’t trade Santana this offseason. Maybe at the trade deadline to a team with good prospects. Therefore, there is no way he is coming to the Mets.
They get nothing at the trade deadline for him. He is a 3 month rental at the trade deadline which diminishes his value greatly. They have to trade him now otherwise they get barely anything.
Sadly, this is the most accurate comment ever written here or on any Mets fan site :(
The only reason I’d be hesitant to move Reyes is his favorable contract. Well, that and the fact that absent an extension, Santana’s only a rental.
But Jose’s numbers — apart from the steals — are replacable. For example, a guy like Jack Wilson (who the Pirates are looking to dump on somebody) will be out there. Wilson finished 6th in the NL in RC/27 — that’s only one spot behind Reyes. Or there’s Renteria.
The fact is that Reyes doesn’t give you the type of production that Ramirez or — it pains me to say it — Rollins will give you. He’s basically a speedy leadoff hitter with slightly above average (maybe) power. You can find that on the market, albeit not necessarily at shortstop. Santana, on the other hand — well, I don’t think that needs to be explained.
Obviously it makes no sense if you can’t get the extension done. But if you can, you have to at least think about it. The free agent market for pitchers is pathetic this offseason.
(All that having been said, I don’t see the Mets trading Reyes — from a marketing perspective, he probably could not be replaced.)
Yeah, Jack Wilson and Edgar Renteria replace everything Jose Reyes gives you except for steals…
You have got to be kidding me.
I’m sorry. Steals and defense. Fair enough. What else? Reyes trailed both of those guys — who, I should make clear, are just examples — in OPS this season.
Obviously replacing Reyes will hurt the offense. But my point is that the step back there might be less than the leap forward in the rotation.
I’m sure you had no problem with Reyes last year, when he led all NL SS in that terrible statistic. But hey your boy Jack Wilson was the 3rd worst, they are comparable.
This is why true baseball purists will never respect sabermetics, because even comparing Jack Wilson and Jose Reyes as players is ludicrous.
I loved Reyes last year. Who didn’t? And hopefully he pans out to be closer to that player than what he showed in the second-half this year. But he doesn’t exactly have the track record that Santana does, nor does he show any sign of hitting HRs at the rate that Ramirez, Rollins, Tulowitzki do. So, in my mind, you can’t treat him as untouchable.
I hear you on the sabermetrics stuff — I don’t really buy into those numbers that much. But, in fairness, Reyes had a mediocre offensive year based on any offensive stat you throw out there. After April, he just did not produce runs with his bat.
In the end, though, my opinion of Reyes has shifted largely for reasons having nothing to do with his stats — he just seemed to be dogging it for the entire final month. Making silly mistakes in the field, mailing in ABs, etc. That was his “X-factor” in 2006 — he always played hard, and inspired the team (and the fans) to do the same with his attitude. But we didn’t get that this season.
Looks like Reyes is getting the same treatment Alfonso Soriano got when he hugely underperformed in the playoffs.
I absolutely love Reyes and would be very annoyed if he is included in any trade for whomever. One month does not make a players career, especially at 24. I am guessing he will have a HUGE bounce back year next year.
yea but if this were 2005 and the mets could trade reyes pretty much straight up for arod like the yanks did id do it in a HEARTBEAT.
HELL NO or better yet ‘NO WAY JOSE’.
If you think the Twins will get nothing at the trade deadline for Johan Santana then you are pretty smart. Some team will be desperate enough to give up 3 type A prospects if it means getting the best pitcher in baseball for 3 months (D backs)
This would rank up there on the list of bad trades with the Nolan Ryan deal, the Kazmir deal, and the Chris Young deal. For the sake of humanity, Reyes can not be touched. Trading the most influential player in baseball for the best pitcher in baseball is stupid. Reyes plays every day and affects the outcome EVERYDAY. Santana will only do that once every 5 days. Reyes is the scariest guy for any pitcher to face. A basic automatic stolen base. Santana is great no question about that but he does not and will not bring the same fire, passion, excitiement, and fear that Reyes brings every day.
“Reyes is the scariest guy for any pitcher to face.”
Really?
Yes, cause any mistake can lead to a stolen base. I forgot which pitcher said it, but he when asked who doesnt he want to face, his response was Reyes.
when was he asked that question? 2006?
You might want to check that with your “most influential” designation. Reyes only bats once for every 9 guys that comes up to bat. Even then, he won’t get on base at least 60% of the time (unless he dramatically increases his OBP – currently at 35%). Statistically speaking, he will only at best positively “influence” once every 2.5 ABs or twice a game on average. Multiply that by 5 games and you’ll get him to positively influence 10 times.
Meanwhile, even though an ace only starts every 5 day, he influences every batter he faces over that start. And assuming he goes 6 innings every starts, that’s at least 18 times he will have an influence.
Of course, this does not take into consideration of outside influences such as when Reyes comes to bat (ie # of outs) or who bats behind him.
With that said, I’m still NOT for trading Reyes for Santana simply because A) Santana is a one-year rental and B) pitchers carries a bigger injury risk.
Johan Santana is not agreeing to a sign-and-trade. Why would he? He’s the best starter in baseball, he’s going to a new team in a new market in a new league. He can name his price on the open market, why would he settle for a sign and trade?
Dontrell Willis makes more sense, since he’s locked up for a few more years, and is still only 25. But he’s sucked for the past 2 years, so how much are you willing to give up for him?
If the Mets could somehow secure Santana then I think they’d make a deal with him for top dollar, long years and just hope he can stay healthy and dominant. Its the type of thing Omar has avoided in his tenure as Mets GM but to me this was Omar’s biggest mistake. Anyway, the Mets will not pay the price in terms of personnel to get him.
It was absurd for Omar to go into the season with El Duque and Glavine as his top two pitchers, hoping that Pedro would return to form. El Duque should be a swing pitcher not a rotation guy. He’s still great, but totally unreliable.
What are you smoking? The collapse had nothing to do with going into this season with Glavine and El Duque as the top 2 pitchers on this team. The team Omar came into the season with held a 7 game lead with 17 to play! Please watch some of the games (not the last 17) before making unbased comments like that.
but wasn’t it Glavine and El Duque that precipitated the collapse at the end of the season? El Duque got hurt forcing us to start Brian Lawrence, Mike Pelfrey, and Phillips Humber in multiple crunch-time games and Glavine’s arm seemed to fall of at the end of the season, and he directly caused us to lose game 162. If the Mets didn’t rely on those 2 pitchers so much and instead had, say, Barry Zito (or Johan), they probably would have had a much better chance of holding on at the end.
not to mention that a sign and trade is a basketball ploy used to circumvent the salary cap. i dont believe ive ever seen it used in baseball.
I know what you’re saying, but I think the poster meant trade w/ extension as a condition of the trade….just worded it incorrectly.
It’s just silly. Reyes isn’t going anywhere. Reyes and Wright are the untouchables. It’s like saying that the Phils still need pitching, so they should think about trading Utley to get Santana because they won without him when he was hurt.
Silly.
I think Willis needs a change of scenery just like Beckett needed one. He still has good stuff. It must really suck playing in front of 500 fans for half the season
I dont like Willis for the Mets. He’s not a sure thing. He has good stuff and a good head but he relies too much on a deceptive delivery for me to consider him a surefire top of the rotation guy for whom I’d trade my top prospects.
Dontrelle is gonna be the next Nomo: all motion, nothing else.
like ive said before no thanks on willis we already have an oliver perez on our team dont need another lefty with no mechanical discipline. not to mention he used to be a guy that threw 94-95 with a nasty slider now hes throwing 89-90. no thanks this guy is damaged goods and is on the way down, sad bc hes still so young.
last thing we’d need is 2 Perez’s on the staff, id pass on willis
jose reyes is a rally killer! he is not a good hitter and cant hit with RISP. He cost the team a few wins this year but i agree u dont trade him for a 1 year rental
Remember, the Marlins got Ramirez + for Beckett. The price is set and if you want Santana, you have to be ready to move good players.
Ramirez was not yet established and not even the Marlins knew he was going to be that good.
This package the Mets would supposedly give up is OCEANS more than what the Red Sox gave up at the time for Beckett. They are not even comparable.
ramirez was in the minors and was the red sox best prospect (and he panned out), so its not the same as giving up reyes it wouldve been like giving up reyes back in 04.
If Santana is going to be traded at all, it will be this off season. Minny knows that his value is reduced with a mid-season trade because he becomes a true rental.
We all know that other teams have more prospects, but the Mets certainly do have major league-ready ones. Milledge or Gomez are young but have MLB experience; Pelfrey looks like he’s turned the corner to me (I am actually excited to put him in the rotation full-time next year). The Twins will need a CF and Milledge or Gomez will give it to them. Give them Pelfrey and Heilman on top of that, with a few other minor leaguers, and we could have the makings of something, although it might take more. At some point, however, you have to say “Stop” and think it’s too much. Omar’s been pretty judicious about the really valuable players, so we’ll see how much he’ll play into it.
If the Marlins called and said you could have Willis for Gomez, Heilman and Willie Collazo, would you do that?
Our only shot at Santana is the free agent market. We have to hope he wants to test the market, and he should. This is a conversation for 2009. Money we have, and a new Stadium, too, but we don’t have the expendable talent to trade for him. I know the conversation will go on, but that’s really the long and short of it.
Give it up guys. Even if you put reyes in the mix, we dont have the prospects to make the deal. Think about it this way: the marlins wanted wright for willis. (which was a frggin joke then adn an even bigger joke now) santana is more of a sure thing than willis. therefore twins will want more.
as for FA…the twins either (a) wont wait that long and will trade him this off-season to get something out of it or (b) the yanks, angels or some other team will outbid us for 09. why? look at what zito got. santana is worth a helluva lot more than zito. will paris wilpon open up his entire wallet for one of the most dominant pitchers in the game to open our new ballpark? we hope so but I dont know if its happening.
omar may be good but he pissed off zito in negotiations, he pissed off delgado the year before. Omar before get off his high horse and pound the pavement. gotta git er dun. how do you do that…figure out what we REALLY have on the farm. How do we get better AND replenish the farm. some of u keep talking about mike carp, mike friggin carp? chip ambres? these guys are CAREER MINOR LEAGUERS!!! pelfrey, gomex, humber and martinez are the chips. ya give something to get something. stop playing fantasy baseball and get real.
Are you suggesting that even if the Mets put Reyes in the deal, that would not be enough to get Santana?
You loco.
Has anyone considered the possibility that Reyes may have had personal issues–perhaps a sick family member, or problems with his partner or their kids. That could explain his dismal last few months of the season, and if that’s the case, hopefully it will resolve itself and he’ll be back to normal next season. When Reyes is at the top of his game, he’s a unique talent who is so much fun to watch. No way he should be moved.
And now I’ll really shake things up: wonder what it would take to get Kazmir back???
the D-Rays aren’t dumb enough to trade him. They have a TON of young talent, and are just waiting for their pitching to develop and catch up with their hitting. I predict the D-Rays will finish ahead of the Yankees or Red Sox within 2 years.
This Santana stuff is giving me a headache. Remember, any pitcher is a major risk, the way arms blow out, and he does have a lot of miles on that arm.
Yes, he is good, but only starts every 5 days. That has to be worth less than a top positional player.
I suppose you can trade every prospect for him 9as some posters want). But, that is putting all your eggs in one basket.
there is also the idea of opportunity cost, for players and $$. Assuming you have a budget still, if they have to lay out $25million for johan, that is money that won’t be spent elsewhere.
If they trade 4 top prospects (or ML ready guys), for 1 pitcher, well that is prospects that can’t be used for anoy other deal (if not on you own team).
So sure, everyone wants Santana. But, could you use the huge salary better, and could you trade all those players elsewhere and get more bang for your buck?
I know the FA pool is supposed to be weak, but is there anyone at all worth (over)paying for?
For trades, what if you could turn those prospects into a nice catcher of the future, 2B prospect, or something else you really need?
Anyway, teams (unless you have unlimited money to spend, and even then it is iffy) normally blow it trying to trade it all for an “ace”. They really need to be developed internally.
Heck, Johan was a rule 5 draftee, right? So I guess you can’t tell everything you need to know about a prospect when they are 20!
Maybe guerra(sp?) is the next coming of Santana. Who knows?
Plus, it loooks like we already got our “ace” for next year, with Pedro back!
Sign Dunn just for laughs, He can be the RH part of the 1B platoon, and take some of the load off of Alou! And hit the ball really far, and it will be scary if he ever learns to control his power, and cut down on the Ks a bit.
I would do Willis and Kevin Gregg for Gomez, Heilman and Collazo
How stupid can we get.
Trade Reyes and try to sell tickets next year. We may be sore at him for his “Post Rickey” swoon – but he is OURS, just like Wright is OURS and we go to battle with these guys because they are the heart and soul of this team.
More importantly I think that to clean the prospect closet for any pitcher, including Santana would be a horrible, unmitigated disaster and a sign of panic. One of things Omar did best last year was to avoid over-paying for Zito, and I hope he stays in his shoes this off-season as well.
If you want to go crazy with cash for a worthwhile position player, have at it, but don’t mortgage our entire future on a SP who is a Tommy John away from sinking the ship.
BTW – Almost Useless Mets NLDS Home Game #2 tickets are still on sale…… E*Bay Item number: 170154949319
Damn you Cerrone! Why are you making us all type this!!
The mets are NOT getting Santana, and if we do we’ll have given up so much that half of you will be PISSED
This is just smoke screen to make us forget this weekend, and that’s what beer is for!
How about Reyes & prospects for Santana
A-Rod signed for SS
now youre talkin, that would be ridiculous though bc then wed have like 50 mill maybe more going to just 2 players….we’re talkin about the wilpons here.
can we trade most of the fans instead of reyes?
ill sacrifice myself if it means we get a true ace.
how about trading Beltran, and Delgado + for Santana, and trading for CoCo crisp (whom boston is trading this winter). Shawn Green at first, (who I have really grown to like at first, maybe not against tough lefties)
I have had it with the Carloses, Dont like the big market, Minnesota is perfect.
Trade Milledge and Heilman, ( I know Cerrone has a man crush on thrilledge, I cant stand him) + for Alex Rios
I would love to see Carlos Gomez every day
where you gonna make up the 60+ homers and 200rbi’s you lose w/ trading the carloses. use your head.
Minnesota does not have the money to sign Torri Hunter so do you think the Twins would want to take on 100 million in Beltran and Delgado.
And I’m sure the Blue Jays would get rid of Alex Rios who is awesome.
beltran for roy halladay, sign hunter
are you kidding me? have you ever heard of vernon wells. yea the bluejays are gonna trade their ace for a guy at a position they don’t need to fill. you better be kidding or nobody should ever take anything you ever post again w/ any validity.
While he is no Santana, I think the Mets should look into a trade for the SF Giants LHP Noah Lowry. With the Giants looking to add young, position players they would probably be willing to deal Lowry (since their strength is their rotation of Zito, Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum) for two major league ready position players. I would strongly consider a package of Milledge and Ruben Gotay (to replace Ray Durham) for Lowry. Lowry is 28, under contract for a few more years, and would join Pedro, Maine, Perez, and potentially Pelfrey in a rotation. That would mean 4/5 of the rotation would be under 30 and Lowry would not cost you as much as Santana would in terms of players and money. It seems like a good fit.
Of course I also believe the Mets NEED to back up a young rotation like this with a pitcher who can provide a Darren Oliver-2006 type season as a long man. Perhaps that guy is El Duque. It’s an intriguing thought. I know Lowry isn’t the sexy name that Santana or Willis is – and I do think that the Mets should look into what it would take to acquire them, but Lowry is intriguing. Of course, he could be Shawn Estes Part Deux.
The Mets aren’t getting Santana. We look at “our” guys a whole lot better than everybody else does ( I think). Minnesota will trade him, but they want good, young and cheap. Looking at our farm system and who we had available this year, there is not much there ready to step into the majors. If we got Santana, Reyes would have to be included because Wright isn’t going anywhere, and frankly , the rest of these guys aren’t that good.
If you want to talk about a blockbuster centered around Santana and Reyes, here’s one that actually works:
Mets send: Reyes, Maine, Heilman, their choice of Milledge/Gomez and their choice of Pelfrey/Humber/Mulvey
Twins send: Santana, Mauer and Bartlett, contingent on Santana signing an extension with the Mets.
The Mauer contract goes from $6mm+ in 08 to $10mm+ in 09 and $12mm+ in ‘10, so that’s a big chunk of change the Twins are dumping. For us, it solves the catcher position for 3 years, at affordable (in NY) dollars, with a young star to replace Reyes on the roster (if not in our hearts).
Santana for 5 years/$100mm is a market contract too, and he keeps the catcher he likes.
The Mets need to re-sign Castillo and exercise Alou’s option to make this work, but it gives them this lineup for 08:
Castillo – 2B
Bartlett – SS
Mauer – C
Wright – 3B
Beltran – CF
Alou – LF
Delgado – 1B
Free Agent – RF (if Minn. takes Milledge; if they take Gomez, Milledge hits 2nd and Bartlett hits 8th)
If Milledge goes (which makes sense, his upside is huge and he’s ready now), the RF could be any one of a group of FAs (Hinske, Trot Nixon, Matt Stairs, Reggie Sanders), a low-cost trade, or even a new 1-year deal with Shawn Green to platoon. Gomez is then available as a mid-season callup if he has a great year in AAA, or in 2009 when Alou is really done.
Mauer is an idol in minnesota. he’s every girl’s wet dream out there. he’s not going anywhere yet.
True about mauer, but this deal I would do. It seems to make sense. Of course, that means it either doesn’t, or has no point being on this blog!
ok, Im as much of a Santana homer as they come, but that’s just ridiculous. There is absolutely no way the twins would give up Mauer. He is their David Wright. Plus, he’s actually from Minnesota. Johan asked out, so they’ll consider trading him, but Mauer is staying put for a long time.
Well thought out proposal…..
I’m sure it’s about to be ripped to shreds……lol
Seriously though, I think you put a ton of thought into it….and it works IMO. Noone will like it….but oh well.
Once again I think my trade proposal for the Mets is at least REALISTIC as oppose to these many, many ridiculous blockbuster trades I am hearing. I am curious what fellow Met fans have to say, here is my original post:
While he is no Santana, I think the Mets should look into a trade for the SF Giants LHP Noah Lowry. With the Giants looking to add young, position players they would probably be willing to deal Lowry (since their strength is their rotation of Zito, Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum) for two major league ready position players. I would strongly consider a package of Milledge and Ruben Gotay (to replace Ray Durham) for Lowry. Lowry is 28, under contract for a few more years, and would join Pedro, Maine, Perez, and potentially Pelfrey in a rotation. That would mean 4/5 of the rotation would be under 30 and Lowry would not cost you as much as Santana would in terms of players and money. It seems like a good fit.
Of course I also believe the Mets NEED to back up a young rotation like this with a pitcher who can provide a Darren Oliver-2006 type season as a long man. Perhaps that guy is El Duque. It’s an intriguing thought. I know Lowry isn’t the sexy name that Santana or Willis is – and I do think that the Mets should look into what it would take to acquire them, but Lowry is intriguing. Of course, he could be Shawn Estes Part Deux.
Trade the farm for Santana? Well the Mets tried that approach in 1989 when they acquired Frank Viola. That deal produced 0 post season appearances for the Mets.
vpkskpov…
vpkskpov…