Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus, in this case writing for Sports Illustrated, and Todd Behrendt of Fox Sports both ranked the greatest collapses in baseball history in the wake of the 2007 Mets.
Silver put the 2007 Mets at No. 5 and the 2004 Yankees at No. 7.
Behrent tied the 2007 Mets and the 1964 Phillies at No. 4, with the 2004 Yankees at No. 1.
Silver’s criteria was based primarily on probability, though he said he also looked at each collapse subjectively. He found that the 2007 Mets had a 499-to-1 chance of missing the playoffs.
Behrendt did not specifically state his criteria.
…perhaps the 2004 yankees statistically had a better chance of losing in the alcs than the 2007 mets did of missing the playoffs, but this is one situation where the numbers are not telling…
…the collapse of the 2004 yankees was so much more epic…against their greatest rival in the greatest rivarly in the game, the yankees allow a team to come all the way back from a 3-0 deficit for the first time in baseball history and lose the pennant, opening the door for boston’s curse-breaking title…
…i have a baseball prospectus subscription, i’m not going after sabermetrics, but this is a case where using the numbers skews reality…
…i might agree that the 1951 dodgers were an even greater collapse than the 2004 yanks, but the 2007 mets ahead of the 2004 yankees?…no way…behrendt had that part right…
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