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In the Journal News, John Delcos lists 10 things the Mets should do to upgrade their team and get back into the playoffs, including, among others, release Guillermo Mota, go after Chad Cordero, sign Adam Dunn and re-sign Tom Glavine, of which he writes…
“This isn’t a popular choice given how he finished the season, but in 16 of his 34 starts Glavine gave up two or fewer runs and was the only starter in the rotation with 200 innings. That’s not easily replaceable production, but they need this guy because of the durability questions surrounding Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez, and the uncertainty of youngsters Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber.”
No way. This is not emotions talking – Glavine may have had good numbers but he was eminently hittable much of the time – especially when facing good teams with good hitters – and terrible down the stretch.
Time to move on there. Period.
Jones is going to cost too much, especially if a NY team wants him. I would rather try to get Aaron Rowand from Philly, he’s younger, cheaper and still a great defensive OF with a plus bat. Also taking him away from the Phills would really hurt there team.
What about Shannon Stewart as a fouth OFer? I believe he is an FA this year.
Unless you can get him for really cheap, I say we stick with what we’ve got in outfield…Beltran, Alou, Milledge backed up by Endy, Marlon Anderson, and Gomez.
I agree the Mets need to re-sign Endy, Marlon and Moises. But as Moises will inevitably be on the DL at least once during the season, it would be good to get a back up. I bet someone like Stewart could be had for reasonable money.
As for Milledge and Gomez, I’m all for keeping them, but if one or both of them need to be traded for a decent pitching package, I could live with it.
i think we should get a shawn green type outfielder- a player who can platoon at first,play a bit of outfield if need be, and pinch hit. green and conine are both gone, so a backup first basemen is a must
that’s what we thought we had in newhan last year
I disagree with his suggestion to bring back Glavine, Alou and LoDuca. The Mets really need to start getting younger and healthier. I would even be satisfied using next season as a building year in order to find out more about the youngsters. Or at least get some free agents who are younger.
Notice how the teams left standing in the playoffs this year for the most part are the ones with the younger players? I do not think this is a coincidence. Experience didn’t give the older teams any advantage.
younger and healthier and more athletic. i can’t think of one good reason to re-sign tom glavine. after watching the yankees go down, you realize (once again) that the key to a good post season is have two strong aces. we don’t even have one. so the pitching staff needs to be changed, and we are already stuck with some of them. we don’t need and shouldn’t even consider another 40+ guy. and that doesn’t even address the fact that he has NEVER wanted to be a Met, and he contributed to our demise more than anyone else on the team.
I feel that while the Mets need to get younger, you cant expect them to start Milledge this year, for he is not ready, as with Gomez. A young outfielder who can fit a one year need and alos can be productive with the bat is about impossible to find, and as is a young catcher in this free agency. Glavine I disagree with because his success is usually based on who is umpiring. I do not like this. He is only successful if his changeup is.
the youngest catcher in teh free agency who can actually start is Yorvit Torrealba, age 30. I’d take Lo Duca over him.
Alou is worth $7.5 Million for a year. He is a great performer as well and wont ask for anything more than a year.
The only better guy for the job in my opinion is Adam Dunn, who will cost A LOT. He would probably end up being a first baseman for us anyway.
please sign adam dunn.
I hate dunn. His style of hitting does not mesh well with me… lots of homeruns and lots of strikeouts with a low batting average. I think he would be a repeat of Mo Vaughn here… tons of strikeouts… not much on defense (actually I don’t know much about his defense… I just assume it’s at most average). He would not hit as many homeruns here as well… so he’ll get less respect.. and less walks.
He’s more like the lefty Dave Kingman than Mo Vaughn.
To be fair, Adam Dunn walks 100 times per year. That separates him from Kingman and Vaughn. So as bad as the strikeouts are, he usually doesn’t swing at crap and get himself out, thus he is on base a lot. I much prefer that approach as opposed to Delgado who prefers to strike out on pitches behind his kneecaps instead of taking a walk.
he batted like 260 with 40 hrs 100 rbis he’d be a much much better upgrade over delgado. dunn is only 28 and still in his prime.
Dunn is very proficient at getting on base and driving in runs. He is actually rather quick, and is pretty good with the glove. He was a recruit at UTexas as a QB. He’s an athlete. did I mention that he’s 28?
Anyway should we sign Dunn we could put him at First and Alou in left, while platooning Milledge and Chavez in right.
I’ll pass on Dunn and his career .242 BA away from Cincy.
Dunn has good and bad.
Bad: His BA, defense, speed. pricetag, strikeouts Vulnerable against lefties.
Good: Obliterates RHP, his ops was 1.024 last year. Along with a .278 average.
I agree that if there is a better option out there we should take it. Dunn would not make me lose sleep at night though if he were the last middle of the order hitter we could add to our team.
I still see Dunn’s future as a DH in the AL though.
good and bad traits*
i would love Dunn but no way are the Reds not picking up his $13m club option.
Dunn is not a perfect player to his goods out weigh his minuses and then some.
im really getting sick of all these fans saying dunn is this a bad hitter bc he Ks or hes a rally killer….look at his 2007 numbers and look at ryan howards 2007 numbers they are virtually the same (dunn had 34 less K’s in 8 more games)….now, raise your hand if you would NOT want ryan howard on your team, thats what i thought…..do some research people.
????
Adam Dunn:
2006: .234, 40 HR, 92 RBI (BARISP: .221)
2007: .264, 40 HR, 106 RBI (BARISP: .242)
Ryan Howard:
2006: .313, 58 HR, 149 RBI (BARISP: .256)
2007: .268, 47HR, 136 RBI (BARISP: .282)
Dunn is not close to being the same hitter Howard is.
He’s not Ryan Howard. Who is?
2007 dunn: BA 264 OBP 386 slg 554
2007 howard: BA 268 OBP 392 slg 584
….rbis are a BS stat ryan howard had rollins, and utley ahead of him. theyre both 27 and their avg is basically the same while their OPS’s are 976 v 940 in howards favor, i dont know what stats youre looking at but these look pretty damn similar to me. and the biggest knock on dunn is Ks and he had 34 less than howard did and howard played in 8 more games. you want to split hairs fine, but adam dunn while playing 1st base is very similar to ryan howard.
*dunn played in 8 more games
whats the point of looking up BARISP? do you think thats going to tell you how well hes going to his next time he has runners on? its a smaller sample size of what his average is all the other times.
Dunn 2007 – 27 yo – 132OPS+ 7.8RC/G
Howard 2007 – 27 yo – 145OPS+ 8.2RC/G
he’s not quite howard but hes pretty close. and for as bad as dunn is in the OF howard is a far more pathetic joke at 1B.
but none of this matters because the reds have a club option that theyre picking up.
No interest in Dunn – again, this is not a lineup that needs a 40 HR, 180K guy. Further, we certainly don’t need his glove in the OF – it’s worse than Alou’s.
I’m fine w/ resigning Alou since we have plenty of young OF depth to cover him if he’s hurt. I would resign LoDuca as well unless a quality catcher somehow becomes available in the next few months. LoDuca was not great – but he’s intense, he’s usually quality, and I think he and Castro would perform well enough from the C position as well as the 7/8 hole in the lineup.
Just focus on getting some freaking pitching for crying out loud.
I agree, I’m not sure what the thinking is on not signing LoDuca. He’s getting older, sure, but it’s not like they have a Joe Mauer waiting in the minors and there’s not a lot available in FA as far as younger guys who provide the same value.
LoDuca had a down year, but the thing I like about him is that he wastes a lot of pitches. Even if he grounds out to short, he’ll make the pitcher work for 8-9 pitches for the out, and that’s a lot more valuable than a guy who’s going to hit a lazy fly ball to the outfield on the first pitch.
No more Glavine. I don’t care how many innings he’s pitched, he shot his wad this yea with the fans. I’d rather see Livan here as a 4-5th work horse starter. Even Freddie Garcia or Jamie Moyer is better at this point.
If we do sign Dunn I would try him out at first and move Delgado. He’s a terrible outfielder and in Shea he’d be exposed bigtime. is numbers in terms of BA and RBI are about the same as Delgados now with more power. I’d get him just to have that scary potential bat in the lineup.
I don’t like Castillo – feel he’s an accident waiting to happen and its just as likely he’s the cause of Reyes losing focus as is Rickey. He’s got to be the softest .300 hitter in the league and his knees are shot. I’d go after Hudson or Roberts or give Gotay a shot.
There’s no way the D-backs would give up Hudson easily. And Roberts is a favorite of Angelos, so he’s not gonna give him up without demanding the moon. I’d say the Mets chances of landing either are between slim and none.
I agree with Xavier, but there’s no one I think would plug into this team better than Dave Roberts…put him in the 2 hole in the field and the batting order…If we can’t get him, though, what about Marlon Anderson at 2B? He’s played there most of his career, and I definitely wouldn’t mind seeing him play every day.
I don’t think Marlon has the stamina to play every day. Plus it would would take away one of the Mets key bats off the bench.
I agree with bringing back Glavine. Everyone is making such a big deal about how bad his last 3 starts were. If Dontrelle’s batted ball does not hit first base and allude Conine’s mitt to go for a double, he probably does not have that 4 run inning in that game in Florida. Also, if Uggla’s ball is hit a little harder, it is a double play ball. Let’s face it, he will be tough to replace. I hate this mercenary as much as anyone. I still can’t believe that a “team leader” would look to play for the Braves and then have the nerve to come back. So is 2000’s baseball…
You are a moron Cerrone
Glavine??
Really
Why so he can pitch well in the regular season and suck again when its go time!
Have you seen Elduque in the final month of the season starting the past two years?
Did you watch the Yankee Cleveland series
What happened to the old man
done History retirement
Your a joke guy!!
Go back and delete that awful post of bring Glavine back
7 runs 1 out with the season on the line
and you want to bring him back
Erm, it was Matt who was suggesting that. He was quoting from the Delcos article.
correction: it wasn’t Matt who was suggesting that.
Matt didn’t write the article, he just quoted it.
Try re-reading the post, genius. Matt was quoting from Delcos’ blog.
Who is the moron? Work on your 3rd grade reading comp skills
I’d say about half of those suggestions are any good and they are exceedingly obvious (e.g, fix Reyes, re-sign Alou, dump Mota). But Adam Dunn is a headache they don’t need and if Glavine was pining for the Braves last offseason, then I say let him go this offseason – I’d rather the Mets spend some of those $10M getting a solid #4/5 pitcher who can eat some innings.
Someone in here said that Omar had a chance to get Cordero AND Rauch for Gomez before the trading deadline. If that was true and the offer is still available, I’d hope he reconsiders it.
Does anyone know what the “pitching package” was in exchange for Heilman and Milledge?
I sincerely doubt Rauch and Cordero could be had for Gomez. This is Bowden we are talking about. He will want Gomez and Humber and possibly another B level prospect minimum for that deal.
If Omar waits around for Billy Beane or Bowden to trade with him, then the Mets will be in the same place or worse than last year come April. He has to explore other trading partners, ones that will be reasonable.
I think the Mets should let Glavine go, even though you might be able to count on him for another 13 wins.
He’s definitely not a top of the rotation guy, and they need to do whatever they can to find such a player. Part of that process is giving the young pitchers every chance to develop, even if means that the team takes a step backward. I would rather let Pellfrey and Humber be given the chance to prove themselves.
Yo Joevvv…chill out. Watch the language. No need to get personal about it. And actually he was quoting the article genius. You’re lucky you even got your message posted.
I agree that they should let Glavine walk….considering he doesnt even want to be here!!!
I don’t care about strikeouts. Dunn rakes, and he’d be a welcome addition to the lineup. However, I agree with the majority here – it’s foolish to bring back Glavine. Yes, he had a very good season, but so much of his success depends on who’s calling the balls and strikes. Plus, you just need to look accross the river to see how perilous it is to rely on 40+ year old pitchers, especially down the stretch and in October. I think it’s time to let him go.
Some of the other suggestions are not very helpful. “Fix Reyes.” That’s a nice sentiment, but it’s a little easier said than done. I’m also kind of iffy on Chad Cordero. He’s a very good reliever, but I’m not convinced he’s good enough to merit trading for him. He’s not overpowering for a closer, and he puts too many runners on as well.
It should be easy to fix Reyes. He went from potentially best player in baseball to a problem child. And it is soooo true. He is the linchpin for this team. There is no single person for the team collapse but if you held a gun to my head as to why they collapsed…it is Jose Reyes. The first month of the season was like last year yet even more walks. After that…downhill.
They MUST fix Reyes and fix the bullpen.
With Reyes I think Willie needs to do a better job of resting the kid throughout the season. He hardly ever gets spelled and for the last 2 seasons it has turned out to hurt us at the end. Give Ahern a few games here and there and keep the kid fresh. I think he’s so high energy he just wears down and starts to press. It ain’t rocket science – he can play and doesn’t need “fixin”
So true. When Henderson was stealing 100 bases a year, he usually only played 145ish games a year. Jose played 160 this year, at a much more demanding defensive position. Give him an extra 2-3 days off a month (i.e. 145 games played) and I doubt very much he would have hit the wall as hard as he did. All these “problem child” speculations are just typical the ‘post hoc, ergo propter ego’ musings (garbage) of the media.
You SHOULD care about strikeouts. Remember that awesome lineup with Mo Vaugh and Jeromy Burnitz, man that was AWESOME.
An even when the Mets got rid of Mike Cameron and his K’s the lineup got a lot tighter.
Burnitz and Vaughn were terrible and contributed nothing else. Dunn hits 40 homers a year, walks 100+ times, and generally has a very high OBP. As mentioned elesewhere, guys like Howard K even more frequenrtly, but you’d be nuts to dismiss him out of hand. I think K’s are something to be mildly concerned about, but Dunn’s positive offensive constributions far outweigh those of guys like Burnitz.
I shudder to think that someone is actually paying John Delcos for his opinions, if they actually include bringing Tom Galvine back. I would much prefer we simply invest in a tee, and set it up and see how far the opposition can hit ot from a stationary position.
The next time I see Glavine I hope it is in a Brave’s uniform, because our chances of coming out with a W will be much better if he is on the bump for them instead of us.
Almost Useless Mets NLDS Home Game #2 tickets…… E*bay Item number: 170157200971
If Glavine doesn’t wantto be here, then he won’t be. But if he does, and I think he might, then I think it might be a good idea to bring him back. It all depends on how the whole staff works out. If they get a frontline starter, and take O. Hernandez out (either let him go or put him in the bullpen) that’s a big improvement. Ryan McConnell at the Always Amazing blog outlined the production from the #5 starters, it was shockingly awful. A rotation of Martinez, Santanna (wishful thinking), Maine, Glavine, Perez would be solid.
Anyone notice that the clutchest player of all time hit into 3 double plays the last 2 games in crucial situations? Oh and he also made an error in Game 3 (first inning, no E given because its Yankee stadium).
His post season averages now read .309 BA, .377 OBP and a .469 Slugging.
Career numbers
.317 BA .388 OBP .462 Slugging.
Clutch this!
One can see evidence of Jeter’s clutchness in the small differential between his career OPS and his postseason OPS. Most hitters have a significantly lower OPS in the postseason because of the superior pitching. That’s normal. A-Rod’s postseason OPS is about 100 points lower than what he does in the regular season. But Jeter’s career OPS is just points higher than his postseason one.
IOW, over the course of his career, Jeter has not been adversely affected by postseason pitching the way most hitters have been. I’d call this clutch.
Dude, I wont even try any more. We’ve been through this one way too many times. Ill stop it before we get any further. On this one we just disagree.
Dude, I have no clue who you are. You must have posted using a different name before.
If you want people to know who you are from previous posts, then don’t go changing your username.
No way on Glavine… Lets trade for another pitcher or sign an FA
No way on Dunn… Too many K’s and low Average…
average is overrated… it’s all about the OBP and SLG… the dude can hit, is going into his age 28 season, and could very well setup as the heir at first base once delgado is gone. for his career he only has 20 more homers at home than on the road (out of about 240)… dunn at age 28 for 4 or 5 years is a much better move than alou for 1 at age 42
agree with all points. people have K phobia around here. Ks are better than double plays. and dunn’s power wont suffer at shea because he hits massive bombs. and he is only 28. this is nto the second coming of mo vaughn.
unfortunately we’ll never get him since the reds have a club option. maybe next year.
agreed. and most likely you are right, though i wouldn’t be shocked if krivsky gets cold feet about the option in an effort to save some money… but if they do pick it up, then we just turn around and look at alex. (and if we do pursue rodriguez, i think we should make all efforts to give him a new start, including dumping that lousy, lazy nickname)
K’s are better than DP’s? What kind of logic is that?
It’s hard to hit into a DP in a 2out RISP situation. So I would prefer to have a player put the ball in play than K in that, or anyother situation. We saw Delgado do this all year, and we don’t need 2 of them in the lineup. Dunn K’s 1/3 of the time with 2 outs. That is horrible. He is the last thing this team needs.
K’s are not smart and are as unproductive as it gets. This is like debating whether or not the sky is blue.
i dont follow you. A DP is worse than a K because a DP is 2 outs and a K is only one. that seems pretty obvious to me. sure, a K doesnt advance a runner or give you an opportunity for an error but you also dont have the possibility of a guy lo duca grounding into a rally killing double play. Also pop ups are probably as bad as Ks when you consider a pop up is dropped probably as often as someone reaches first on a dropped swinging 3rd strike.
if you can walk, which dunn does, than you negate a major problem a lot of bigger sluggers have, ie they dont get on base if they dont hit a HR. but since dunn’s OBP is up, who cares if his BA sucks?
so like i said, i must be either missing something else from your argument or looking up at green skys here.
Adam Dunn is window-dressing for a third-place team. You can have him.
While I wasn’t a big Trachsel fan, I always felt he pitched well enough to merit a 5th spot in the rotation. Regardless, he shown the door in 2006…perhaps rightfully so, although if I had my pick between Brian Lawrence and Steve Trachsel, well….
Anhow, I thought I would compile Trachsel’s numbers and compare them Glavine’s numbers accordingly.
Glavine played 5 seasons with the Mets, compiling the following:
61 Wins – 56 Losses – 516Ks – 3.98ERA
Trachsel played 6 seasons with the Mets, however 2005 was a lost season for him as he was out with an injury. He compiled the following:
66 Wins – 59 Losses – 580Ks – 4.12ERA
Trachsel made approximately 24.5 Million during his tenure with the Mets. Glavine, an easy 50+ Million.
Just a bit of info for those who want Glavine back…
Great post.
Mets score 4.96 runs per game. Glavine’s ERA was 4.45.
2006 Mets score 5.15 runs per game. Trachsel’s ERA was 4.97.
You know what this shows?
That these guys were the beneficiaries of a playing on a team that scores runs.
If you want to replace these “average” pitchers look at small market teams with mid 4 ERAs and dont pay them 12 Million dollars like you were paying Tom.
Save that 12 Million for next year for Mr. Santana.
Glavine was paid 10.5 this year.
Plus a $3M option.
His salary this year is $7.5. His buyout is 3.0 million:
7.5 + 3.0 = 10.5
I don’t mean that to be sarcastic, it’s just that I don’t understand what’s so hard to figure out about his compensation for this year.
Sorry – I got confused with his 2008 player option, which would have been up to $13M in total had he accepted it.
No problem, it seems lots of fans are confusing Glavine’s 2007 salary including BackattheWall (or whatever his username of the day is).
I don’t want Glavine back but your statistics are not very revealing. Wins are one of the worst ways to judge a pitcher, especially when talking about Glavine or any Met who has suffered from lousy run support.
To compare him to Trachsel if also ridiculous as Trax was both inconsistent and not as healthy as Glavine.
A better way to judge Glavine is quality starts. Every year he’s been a Met, except for maybe one, he’s led the staff in quality starts. This year he was 9th in the majors in quality starts, ahead of Pettitte, Webb, Santana, and Oswalt.
I think he’s too old to bring back as his stamina over the course of a season is highly questionable, but I wouldn’t undervalue his worth to the Mets by comparing him to Trachsel.
I was using Wins, Losses and ERA because they were the metrics the user above was using.
You are correct in stating that there are better metrics to measure pitcher efficiency like WHIP (walks and hits) and QS (measure of pitcher’s consistency).
I was not trying to say Tom Glavine is as bad as Stevie.
I was just arguing that it is unwise to spend 10.5 million dollars on him.
I don’t think making the comparison is ridiculous. We’re not comparing vintage Glavine with Trachsel, we’re comparing an older pitcher with another pitcher during a particular strech of time. Not career vs. career.
I agree, while wins are poor indicators of pitching performance, strike-outs and ERA are. If you look again, their numbers were very comparible.
Ask again, was Glavine worth that much more for numbers that were not substantially better than Trachsel’s…to some extent inferior?
Dude you cannot argue with VCarver. He is very righteous. You’ll see this quickly. See my above post. Agree to disagree.
lol
BMF, I was comparing Glavine’s years with the Mets with Trachsel’s time with the Mets. I was NOT using anyone’s career numbers.
It’s really an insult to compare Glavine to Trachsel as Glavine was way more consistent than Trachsel from game to game. You knew you could count on Glavine to take the mound every five days, last for about 6 innings, and for the majority of his starts, limit the opposition to 3 runs or less. There was no other pitcher on the Mets since 2003 who you could say the same thing about. Not Pedro, El Duque, Trachsel or anyone else.
Strike outs and ERA are still inferior to quality starts as a measure of contribution. Strike outs are nice but don’t necessarily get a team a win as we see too often with pitchers like Ollie. ERA says nothing about production.
Yes, Glavine was worth much more than Trachsel because the numbers that count were so much better. And you only have to look at last year’s NLDS and NLCS to see why Glavine was worth more.
Actually his statistics reveal quite a bit.
I found this while browsing Wikipedia.
An early criticism of the statistic, made by Moss Klein, writing in The Sporting News, is that a pitcher could conceivably meet the minimum requirements for a quality start and record a 4.50 ERA, seen as undesirable at the time. Bill James addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare amongst starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through analysis of quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91.[3]
4.50 ERA sound familiar. Glavine’s 2007 ERA was 4.45.
BS? Well, Stache, what exactly does that mean? Nothing you are right. But I did some digging.
Most quality starts by pitcher and their corresponding ERA
Peavy 2.54, Haren 3.07, Smoltz 3.11, Penny 3.33, Carmona 3.06, Hudson 3.33, Sabathia 3.21,Lackey 3.01, Glavine 4.45 , Meche 3.67, Pettite 4.05, Arroyo 4.23 Webb 3.01, Snell 3.76.
The only 3 of this top 20 bunch are Glavine, Petitte, and Arroyo. Arroyo plays in a joke stadium and Pettite has the Yankee offense behind him.
Yes, the quality start is a good statistic to judge a pitcher by. However, in this case I would bet Glavine is fitting that 3 runs over 6 inning (4.50 ERA) bill to just meet the minimum criteria most of the time judging by his 4.45 ERA.
Don’t be so quick to dismiss some numbers. Yes Glavine is not Trachsel, but he is not leaps and bounds above him at this point in his career either.
only 3 of this top 20 bunch with an ERA above 4*
Sorry that was alot of typing
Crap. I forgot the rest of the 20. Cain 3.65, Halladay 3.71, Garland 4.23, Santana, 3.33, Oswalt 3.18, Bedard 3.16.
That Wikipedia information on Quality Starts has been posted here many times before, including by me. It’s nothing new.
There can be two different ways to get a 4.50 ERA or higher and have a high number of quality starts.
1) The pitcher had a high number of quality starts where he pitched better than the minimum standard but he also had a few ghastly starts that skewed his overall ERA higher.
2) The pitcher, as you suggest for Glavine, simply pitched to the minimum or thereabouts in most of his starts.
From Delcos: “…in 16 of his 34 starts Glavine gave up two or fewer runs and was the only starter in the rotation with 200 innings.”
Therefore, it appears your scenario is wrong.
I wasn’t addressing whether at this point in their careers Glavine or Trachsel would be a better option over the other. In fact, I clearly stated I don’t want Glavine back as I think he’s too old now to pitch a full season. I was addressing who had the better years for the Mets. All things considered, I think Glavine was heads and shoulders above Trachsel.
Great Post Stache.
Perhaps you put it in better words…Glavine is not “leaps and bounds above him at this point…”
VCarver,
Fundamentally, we’re on the same page. Yes, Glavine is a better overall pitcher. However, performance results dictates, not the sidebar metrics we’ve learned to assess.
Trachsel was a problem throughout his Met career. Nonetheless, he managed some rather decent years and perhaps performed above expectations.
As for Glavine, I can’t help but believe he performed below expectations. He was brought in as a number 1, he pitched more like a number 3.
Glavine is still a servicable pitcher. He’ll get you double digit wins. However, is that worth a boat load of money going forward? I don’t think so.
This is why I made the pitching comparison, just to give an idea of how “big name” compares to “no name”. I did the same comparison last year when Suppan was a free agent and everyone was screaming for the Mets to sign him. Suppan gets 10mil a year for essectially being the same pitcher Trachsel has been for the last few years.
Anyhow, I’ll agree to disagree.
Correct me if I’m wrong, Stache, but isn’t the point of you including that article from Wikipedia to show that Glavine had an ERA close to 4.5 in his quality starts? I checked and in his 23 quality starts this year his ERA was 2.27 and in only 4 of them did he go exactly 6 innings and give up exactly 3 runs. In more than half (12) he gave up 1 run or fewer and in 5 only gave up 2 runs.
I think in this case Glavine’s ERA was so close to 4.5 because he had a few starts (Dodgers game) where he gave up a whole lot of runs in very few innings pitched.
I haven’t even decided whether or not I want him back, but assuming (and hoping) that pedro, maine and perez will all be better than him next year, you could do a lot worse for a number 4 starter or even a number 5 if they get someone else.
However, performance results dictates, not the sidebar metrics we’ve learned to assess.
BMF, what are you saying here? Are you agreeing with me that how the pitcher performs in terms of runs allowed per game, and how many quality outings he gives his team per year, are the most important stats of all? If so, we are on the same page here.
I am only going to judge Trachsel right now in relation to Glavine. I’ll say that relative to Glavine, he was less healthy, less available to start games, less consistent, and less likely to produce a quality start. He was also less of a team leader, it appeared.
I don’t believe most fans at the time Glavine came to the Mets really thought of him as a #1. Not in the sense of a Santana or Halladay. And there were many other pitchers being paid more than him at the time. I thought of him as a #2. If you had higher expectations, well then that’s just you and a portion of Mets fans.
I never said Glavine should be brought back. But you did set up a comparison between him and Trachsel, basically saying they were the same pitchers over their time with the Mets. That’s what I had the issue with. They were not.
You seem to undervalue the ability of a pitcher to be consistent and stay healthy. Glavine was both during his Mets tenure, much more so than Trachsel. In terms of quality starts, he was better than Trachsel by leaps and bounds.
As for Suppan, look at his record during this September. If just one Mets starter pitched that way down the stretch, we might be talking about the Mets in game 1 of the NLCS vs. the D-Backs instead of Glavine and Trachsel. Just one!
From Stache and Baseball Reference In 24 of Glavine’s 34 starts we went less than 7 innings.
You are so black and white it astonishes me.
That sounds pretty bare minimum to me.
He almost made it through 8 innings 3 times this season.
He has made it into the 7th inning in only 9 of his 23 quality starts.
I can split hairs as well.
reyesnwright, thanks for doing the number crunching. You have shown that stache is indeed wrong. And just as I thought, Glavine’s ERA was high due more to a handful of exceptionally horrid starts than to merely meeting the minimum standard for a QS in most of his games.
In addition to the Dodger game, there was a really bad start in Detroit and of course the last one of the year. They skewed his ERA really high.
No ReyesnWright, I just wanted to attempt to demonstrate that Glavine had a high number of quality starts, but he pitched the minimum amount of innings to do it in most cases. I wanted to show that while most pitchers with many quality starts have low ERAs there is also the exception when some starters have many quality starts but are doing the approx 3 ER over approx. 6 innings more than going 0 or 1 runs over 7 or 8.
I am not advocating Glavine or dismissing him. I believe VCarver is too black and white with telling people they are wrong. I wanted to show th eother argument while maybe not the winning side also had merit. Some on this board dismiss others way too easily.
stache, if you want to look at who’s black and white, then look in the mirror. Do you really think the ability of any other met starter to go over 6 innings was significantly better? If so you are wrong about that one too.
What you were implying in your post was that Glavine gave up 3 ERs in the majority or most of his quality starts. He did not. Reyesnwright showed you were wrong.
I am not the one telling people their statistics arent revealing and throwing there argument out the window because they did not consider one stat, quality starts. Remember this wasn’t my argument to begin with. I made an assumption that upon further investigation I see that he did not do the 3ER over 6 in most situations. He did not pitch deep into those quality starts either. Like I said to begin with, you dismiss some stats too easily and blindly liveby others. Don’t even get me started on your situational stats > BA and OPS. That is a gleaming example. I do not care about other Mets pitchers and their ability to go long. I was comparing Glavine to the other members of the quality start list. I make assumptions because I do not have all day here to look up every stat.
What I demonstrated I felt was meaningful in qualifying Glavine’s quality starts. We can disagree. Goodday Sir.
Guranteed VCarver posts another argumentative response and repeats that you are wrong. But he has never been wrong…what’s that, his argument about Jeter’s postseason “clutchness” looks pretty bad now? Of course VCarver will argue he is still clutch despite the fact that his postseason numbers are now below his regular season numbers because they are still close and are a result of facing superior pitching. Never mind that this was his argument when Jeter’s postseason numbers were the same before this Indians series, and have now dropped (how many GIDPs did he have?). Now an objective person would believe that while VCarver may be right, it seems more likely that given the increasing number of plate appearances for his in the postseason, he is regressing to numbers that more accurately represent his ability to hit in the postseason (which now shows a modest inferiority to his regular season numbers, which may likely be due to superior pitching or any other number of factors). But no one ever accused VCarver of being objective.
I see that he did not do the 3ER over 6 in most situations.
But he did do it in ALL his quality starts. That’s the only issue here — were his quality starts valid or not? Did he just meet the minimum in them or did he do better than the minimum. You suggested he just did the minimum. ReyesnWright showed that is wrong.
He did not pitch deep into those quality starts either.
Many of the top leaders in QS did not go deep into all their games either. Here are averages based on all starts this year:
Penny – 6.3
Meche – 6.3
Pettitte – 6.3
Arroyo – 6.2
Glavine – 5.9
So for this group, you’re talking at most a difference of .4 innings/start. That’s peanuts and unless you can show that Glavine in his quality starts pitched significantly less innings/start than the other leaders, then you haven’t shown anything.
I’m assuming his IPs/start in quality starts was comparable to all the other leaders.
Haha, see. Let’s agree to disagree so VCarver can believe he is master of the universe!
Of course Metsfan1981 has resorted to strawman arguments to try to make a point about Jeter.
The gist of my previous arguments on Metsblog concerning Jeter, especially in regards to a player like A-Rod, has always been that Jeter’s differential between his regular season OPS and postseason one was much smaller than that of most other players. It’s true. A-Rod just can’t compare to him.
Further, I have stated many times that postseason stats, while critical, are only a small way to judge clutchness. An ideal way would be to include high-leverage games within a season.
And, no, I would argue that Jeter is still clutch because just like you can’t look at only Beltran’s 2005 season and conclude he is a bad/average centerfielder, you can’t just look at one postseason series and say a player is or isn’t clutch. Ever hear of small sample size?
But, hey, don’t let the facts get in the way of an ad hominem attack.
I stated that upon further investigation Glavine did not do what I expected he did. I was admitting a flaw in my line of thinking. You, however, argue for the sake of arguing and blew right past it.
You make me laugh VCarver. MetsFan1981 makes a good point that I know as well. You are impossible to argue with. Every argument must end with you being 100% unconditiionally right. Keep living in your fantasy world where you are always right.
Yawn…ad hominem, whatever you say. You are the guy who talks down to everyone you disagree with constantly. Now you look foolish. You argued Jeter was clutch and pointed to his postseason stats. I actually agree with you (huh?) that your study idea would be superior for judging whether a player can truly be “clutch” or just sometimes come up big in clutch situations in small samples sizes. But the fact of the matter is, there is no evidence that suggests Jeter is clutch and this postseason, while a small sample size merely adds to the number of Jeter’s postseason plate appearances that reveal no special clutchness. Now look at ARod: his numbers are much lower in the postseason. Look at the difference in plate appearances – between that and his average season: kind of revealing huh? Also, look, at the 2004 to 2006 years that skewed his numbers down terribly. But don’t let facts get in the way of your stubborn dismissive opinions.
Wow, sorry stache if I missed your 10-word retraction amidst the 6,000 or so words you spent trying to make a case that Glavine’s QSs were rubbish!
In fact, I went back over your posts and did not see where you retracted anything.
And stache, if you don’t like what I have to say, ignore me instead of throwing around personal insults. That’s the sign of a beaten man.
Edit: I meant ABs, not plate appearnces.
Stache, you must offer an official retraction to VCarver and vow to never question his superior baseball acumen again (also, bowing before his posts wouldn’t hurt either). Aww, is this an ad hominem attack? Haha, so what?
Metsfan1981, first of all, who are you? I know I had this Jeter discussion with a few others before, but I’m almost positive no one by your name was one of them.
And what’s with all these people changing their usernames and then referencing past discussions without clarifying who they are? Someone else above did the same thing. Dang, even when people keep the same name it’s hard to keep track of who said what, but if you keep changing your name, it’s impossible. IAt least say who you are/were before re-engaging in a discussion!
For the record, my discussions about Jeter concerned:
1) His ability to come up clutch in big games during the season — intgerleague games with the Mets, games against the Red Sox, and key games down the stretch.
2) His ability to perform well in the postseason relative to most other players. As a way to support that opinion, I pointed out that the differential between his regular and postseason OPS numbers was smaller than for most other players that had a decent sample size.
And I’ve always been consistent saying you had to look at all the numbers available. Some wanted to pick and choose certain postseason series for A-Rod, lol. But any stats person worth his salt would say that’s nonsense. Pure rubbish.
It’s you who look foolish metsman … not only changing your name but mischaracterizing my position so you can carry out an ad hominem attack. Plus, wanting to use a small sample size when a larger one exists. That’s ridiculous.
If I and others ignored you, how would others realize that VCarver’s words were not Gospel? I hope others have realized it now too because of it.
You talk down to everyone, including myself. Yes you did read my retraction because you quoted it in your post. You just have bad reading comprehension when you are angry.
I will ignore you now and all the other trolls.
Aww, is this an ad hominem attack? Haha, so what?
It’s usually the sign of immaturity or of someone who has run out of anything intelligent or constructive to add to a discussion,
If my reasoning were so faulty you have nothing to fear about others taking it seriously, hence no need to start food fights, stache. Just ignore me in the future. Grow up.
And, no. I still do not see what you retracted. Maybe it’s your writing skills that are the problem.
“It’s usually the sign of immaturity or of someone who has run out of anything intelligent or constructive to add to a discussion”
I already showed you were wrong, which you will never admit. So, why not throw in an ad hominem attack when it accurately reflects on the nature of a poster.
Also, I never changed my name. Remember, you called me a liar in one of your posts and I took offense. Now you accuse me of purposely changing my name to avoid revealing myself. Haha, no one is scared of you. Now show me where Jeter has performed in the clutch career-wise (not in one series) in the playoffs. Show me evidence that his difference in splits is not in line with the differences ofother players who have had similar numbers of postseason ABs. You can’t. I will not accept meaningless subjective memories. I have argued my point persuasively with numbers, whereas you make claims which don’t even look to other players for context.
“Plus, wanting to use a small sample size when a larger one exists. That’s ridiculous.”
Umm, not only does this show you have poor reading comprehension skills, but it also demonstrates just what a hypocrite you are.
I am done with you.
No, metsman, you did not show I was wrong. Everything I have said about Jeter in the past is still true. I still stand by it. I’m pretty sure you were not in the original Jeter discussions. And I have no recollection of you from any other discussion either.
But I know one thing. You are either a bald liar (now), saying I said things I never did … or you have serious memory problems. I may not remember everyone I come across at Metsblog, but I certainly don’t go around making up things about what others say.
And this shows just how unintelligent you are and proof of your tendency to make things up — I never once said someone was changing names to avoid revealing their identity. Or because they were scared of me. Are you insane? I never offered up a reason. I just said it was damn confusing for someone to reference past discussions when you have a new username and you don’t identify yourself. I suspect you and others who do it just forgot that you were using a different name in the past. That’s your problem.
Also, if you think I have had anything more than a brief exchange of short remarks with YOU in the past, give a link to it. I know you can’t because it doesn’t exist. Or, as I said, you were using a different name.
Umm, not only does this show you have poor reading comprehension skills, but it also demonstrates just what a hypocrite you are.
Uh, no. You pointed to the 2004 and 2006 seasons as an excuse for A-Rod’s relatively poor postseason numbers. I’ve been consistent in saying you have to look at everything there is. Good and bad. Trying to say someone is clutch IF you don’t look at his bad years. is utter nonsense.
As for your arguing your point with numbers, where?
Your asking me to supply is proof of your problem with memory. Because I’m positive I gave them in past discussions with others. But here are a few:
OPS differential career vs. postseason:
Ortiz +.074
Jeter -.004
A-Rod -.123
Giambi -.038
And before you go around making up additional things I never said, here is more of my position on Jeter and clutchness, for the record:
Is he the most clutch player ever? No. Just one of the best.
Are there other good clutch postseason performers? You betcha. Beltran is one of them. Ortiz another. But A-Rod isn’t no matter how hard you protest..
Is Jeter a great player? Debatable. He’s clutch. But his defense is lousy. He’s also benefit from being on stacked Yankee teams.
Do I like Jeter? No. But I respect him.
Is he HOF material. Probably but debatable.
Does a good way to measure clutchness exist? Nothing that is close to ideal. Situational stats during the season are not a great way to measure it. Or can only be considered a minor element in a more comprehensive approach to measuring it.
Are all clutch players great players? Not necessarily. Some are. Some aren’t.
More differentials:
Chipper -.079
Andruw -.043
Soriano -.246 :!:
So who’s clutch? Jeter, Ortiz, Bernie Williams, Beltran. Who’s not? A-Rod and Soriano.
OK, the elephant in the room — let’s say A-Rod opts out of his contract with the Yankees. Is there anyone here who would not pursue him as a 2B (or, alternatively, 3B, which would involve moving Wright to first or OF – which, incidentally, he’s said he would do if it involved getting A-Rod)?
Assuming the Mets have the money to do that and pursue a pitching upgrade — which they should, given the new stadium and SNY — I would be in favor of going full-bore after A-Rod if he opts out.
Thoughts?
The only question for this move is how much are you paying him? It is fair to say A-rod is better than any player you are currently fielding on any major league team.
But if you tie up your entire payroll on this one man then no it is not worth it.
Yes – this absolutely should be considered. Arod is the best player in the game, and will be had for cash, not prospects which makes him even more attractive. The fact is with the network and the new stadium, and some of the salaries that would be shed, it is financially doable. This also allows the moving of Delgado and at least part of his contract, probably to an American league team….
Almost Useless Mets NLDS Home Game #2 tickets…… E*bay Item number: 170157200971
The only potential former Yankee I think is worth going after is Jorge Posada…even if his BA falls back down, he’s still a consistent 20 hr, 90 rbi player.
i woudl love to have arod here and i love how wright did reference moving positions for him, however it is not worth it bc we ALL know that even if the miracle of the wilpons forking the dough over to arod happened that would mean when guys like peavy, penny, and santana become free agents we will be sitting back and watching them go to teams like the cubs or red sox or yankees or angels and helping them probably go farther than us while we confirm to the rest of the league that pitching not offense wins championships.
Stop wasting your breath (keystrokes!). A-Rod is not leaving the Yankees only to stay in NY. One of the reasons he may leave the Yankees is to get out of NY. Signing with the Mets won’t help.
Besides, I don’t want him on the team. Too much of the team’s resources will go to 1 player is he’s here and he’s not conducive to a winning team chemistry. I said this last week and I’ll repeat it again — A-Rod will never win a WS ring.
As for Posada, forget it. He’s too old to give a multi-year contract to. Besides, his game-calling and defense are both weak or highly suspect.
I wouldn’t dismiss A-Rod coming here, but I wouldn’t say it’s likely either. From what I remember in 2000, A-Rod was a Met fan growing up, and all the pieces lined up for him to come here in 2000 (until Steve Phillips 24-1 comment). I think part of the problem he experienced was a “Yankee” problem (his reception in the clubhouse, guys not having his back, etc.), rather than a “New York” problem. I could certainly see him signing with the Mets as an “F-U” to Steinbrenner and the Yanks, assuming the money is right.
That said, I don’t think it’s likely that he come here. Reyes (+) would probably land Santana, and putting A-Rod at SS would fill the hole, but it would be costly, and I don’t know if being on the fringe of a World Series will be enough to get Freddie to open the check book up THAT much.
A-Rod hates the Page Six scrutiny and the way the NY fans have booed him even when he was having a decent year (though underperforming relative to his salary). That has nothing to do with clubhouse chemistry or politics.
That’s why I doubt he’ll ever come to the Mets. That probably a preference to stay in the AL.
Personally, I hope Freddie doesn’t open up the checkbook for A-Rod. His salary would take up too much of the budget and he’s self-centered. Any team he’s on will be all about him. That’s his teams can’t win it all and why A-Rod will never win a Ring.
Need more coffee … should have read:
That’s why I doubt he’ll ever come to the Mets. That and probably a preference to stay in the AL.
Personally, I hope Freddie doesn’t open up the checkbook for A-Rod. His salary would take up too much of the budget and he’s self-centered. Any team he’s on will be all about him. That’s why his teams can’t win it all and why A-Rod will never win a Ring.
I am one of the AROD bashers. I just don’t like him for some reason. He is all world no doubt as a talent but just seems so full of crap all the time. Cliche Cliche Cliche come out of his mouth constantly. Always measuring his words. I just don’ think it is real.
Regardless of all that, he is exactly what the Mets need from an offensive standpoint. They need a true lockdown hitter to take the 4 hole. Beltran is very good but not AROD good. Delgado is slipping and Wright is a terrific 3 hole hitter and should not move from that spot.. If they could get him, that is …..if he actually opts out of his contract and is free to go anywhere, they should consider opening up the wallets and spending big money on him and big prospects to land us a Bedard or Peavy or Willis or Santana.
Here are the top 4 starters:
Pedro,
Santana/Peavey/Bedard/Willis
Maine
Perez
Here is your batting order and position for top 8
Reyes – SS
Loduca – Ca
Wright – 2b
Arod – 3b
Beltran -CF
Delgado – 1b
Alou – LF
any rightfielder left
Trade Milledge Pelfrey or Humber and Heilman for your starter
assuming you can make the money work (minus contracts of alou, glavine it becomes feasible)… you HAVE to make an effort. Wright already went on record saying he’d move to second. I don’t know how I feel about that, but any chance you have to add a hitter like that, you do it.
A hitter like what? Like we’ve seen in the post-season? He’s won how many post-season series?
that’s silly. you have to get to the postseason first. i understand you can’t live in a vacuum and pretend his postseason record so far doesn’t exist, but you also can’t act like the rest of his career doesn’t either…
I respect the guys a player and can hit but he’s proven over and over and over again that he can;t deliver in the clutch and when it matters – how much more to we need to see? You really want to pay this guy $30-35 million a year?
take a look at his late and close career numbers in the career splits in baseball reference, and his overall postseason numbers… i really think that his bad numbers with the yankees the last few playoffs can be argued away by the team and environment… the yankees haven’t been as good as they looked on paper in a long time. and he’s been the obvious fall guy since they traded for him.
AAAAAAAAA no.
I’m not as concerned about the money issues as I am about team chemistry. I want to see a team that’s winning and having fun. Watching the Yankees highlites, even during their comeback stretch, there wasn’t any excitement.
Give me guys like Eric Byrnes. Paul LoDuca or Craig Biggio over A-Rod, at least I know and can see they want to win more than anything.
With all due respect…
This “Fix Reyes” notion is ridiculous. The kid had his 2nd best season. Yes, he tapered off towards the end of the season..but he still ended up with a .280 average, lead the majors in SB, scored over 100 runs, etc…all from a SS position.
This would be a moot issue had the Mets made it into the post season. While his slump coincided with the Mets disasterous slide, he surely was not the cause…at least not alone. The Mets collapse was caused by a collective failure of its players. With the exception of Wright and Alou, the entire team played mediocre baseball. The bullpen including Wagner was horrendous. The starting pitching (Maine, Perez, Glavine) were performing way below average.
Keep in mind, there’s a crossown team who’s fanbase is known for this type of finger-pointing of a player…
Reyes’ September: 117 AB, 8 RBI, 5 SB (4 CS), .205 BA, .279 OBP
Though I agree with you that we shouldn’t start finger pointing, that’s a really bad month down the stretch for one of the best hitters in the league (and I do believe that he is one of the best hitters in the league)…so yes, there’s a good chance he needs some kind of “fixing”.
Yup, but the still scored a bunch of runs, and regularly put up 4-5 run leads that the pitching staff couldn’t hold.
I agree in part…if the fixing consists of a better conditioning plan, perhaps steal less bases in order to keep his legs fresh, then fine…I’m all for that. But the bashing I’m hearing these days…
-Reyes caused this collapse:
because of his nightlife;
because he dances too much after a HR;
because he smiles too much;
because Luis Castillo has been a bad influence on him;
because he was mad at Willie Randolph…
so on and so on.
It’s sensationlism at its best. The kid put up great numbers, he tapered off. So did Wagner, Maine, Glavine, etc.
i think the SB attempts can definitely be efficiently decreased. i think we’d all be more than happy with 55 sb, with say 10 or less caught stealings as opposed to 80 sb with 20-25 caught stealing. the missing wear and tear of those extra 30-40 attempts would definitely be beneficial
Forget that Glavine was on the Mets last year. Now, he is just a free agent.
So, compare his overall package to the rest of the FA or easily available starters. Were his numbers much better? Is is stuff pretty well shot? Any reason to expect a rebound year at age 42?
If the answer is overall “no”, is he worth paying a bunch of money to, especially considering the baggage he will bring 9with the fans).
Now, if he wanted to take a small money deal (or heavy on the incentives), that is a different story.
All a moot point unless Atl. blows him off. Even then, he might go elsewhere if there is an option (Wash?) Or maybe, since he rejected the option, it is the Braves or retire?
I would also take Dunn, assuming he was pencilled in to 1B.
A Rod? Sure isn’t going to hurt the offense. And DW would instantly become a top 2 hitting 2B in the league! Although I think 1B might be a better home.
He certainly has the speed to play the OF though.
I would not, however, release Mota now. Wait until ST to make sure that replacements are on hand 1st. Besides, it is actually possible that they could trade him, since he would be only a 1 year contract at reasonable cost.
dear stickguy,
take your rational thinking and well developed arguments elsewhere. we have no need for them or you.
sincerely,
bored and angry blog-reading mets fans
seriously though, you are right on all accounts. now i don’t think we really have the means to go after dunn AND alex, i think if they were both to become available, you at least make more than a cursory inquiry. and if only one is available, you go after them 100%.
I think w Glavine, it comes down to how we feel about the health of Pedro and el Duque, the continuing progress of Maine and Ollie, and the likelihood of ascension of the ranks of Pelfrey, Humber and maybe Vargas. If you have a doubt on any of those, you at least kick the tires on Glavine again. Indifferent a-hole or not.
What is Mota’s contract for next year?
But What about all his quality starts?
they should never sign both alou and dunn, and keep delgado, Delcos must be kidding…Dunn in right field? Has he lost his mind? No way can Dunn be a Met, we don’t need to add a 190+ strikeout guy to our line-up who contributes nothing defensively, will even hurt them defensively, and with the Mets pitching staff the way it is, Perez being a fly ball pitcher, etc., we kind of need to focus a little on defense….look at Rowand instead of Dunn, cause he can contribute 20 Homers at the plate, and is a very solid outfielder
Do you want to pitch around Wright or Beltran with Dunn on Deck? you would slide Alou to six and Delgado to 7th. 7th! A guy who hit 24/87 batting 7th!
Mota has $2.5 million coming to him in 2008, which is the last year of his 2 year deal, so it would cost the Mets some money to release him, but that would be money well spent in my opinion, addition by subtraction…
U R crazy. This guy has great stuff, the jacket needs to earn his keep and get nice production from this guy.
Also, because this is a contract year for Mota, and he will have spring training this year (remember he was suspended for the 1st 50 games), expect Mota to have a nice bounce back. Also, use him against lefties more, he is clearly better against them than he is against righties. Put him in positions where he can succeed.
Let Mota go. One less thing to worry about
Let Glavine go. Bad Karma
Send Heilman to winterball to start a few games and build up his arm. We’re running out of reasons to keep him in the pen.
Dunn will love Citi Field.
Jones – see Glavine
Rickey should go back to special instructor
Castillo will slowly decline. I much prefer Gotay, though not in the # 2 slot.
Trade some chips for an inning eater. There are guys not named Haren, Blanton, and Santana who are young and threw 200 IP. Pitrates had 2 guys who did. The Giants had one also. It can be done. It may cost less.
I don’t have a clue who should catch. It seemed like the least of our worries
right on peaches, if i see another joe blanton, dan haren BS billy beane rumor i may go insane. i really hope omar doesnt get tunnel vision this offseason, there are plenty of guys out there and theyre on teams whos gms arent named beane or bowden. We dont need a sexy name to be an innings eater just a healthy young arm that can give us 200 IP to replace glavine, then you can go focus on the big name dudes. this offseason is going to be a big test for omar. im a little worried but im getting the feeling the wilpons may open the checkbook a little more than we would normally expect…..or maybe ive become so dillusional that ive convinced myself of that to stay sane.
Ian Snell threw 200 innings this year and i think is heading to his first year of arbitration.
Gorzelany is still cheap.
In SF, Matt Cain was 7-16, but that 3.65 ERA could translate to 14-9 in NY. He’ll be cheap this year, I think, so SF may be reluctant to trade him.
Unfortunately I don’t see those guys being traded. They’re still cheap, and I think the teams want to build around them. But I think you’re spot on in the direction the Mets should go. We’ve theoretically got our ace – Pedro – and then a soild 2-3 behind him in Maine and Perez. We’re going to need an innings-eating, #3 or 4 type pitcher.
well lincecaum is probably untouchable in SF but between lowry and cain i think one will be traded, and i think guys like carlos gomez are what theyd look for to get younger in that OF. theres more to the trade than just that obviously but i think cain could maybe be had for a package possibly centered around gomez and say kevin mulvey.
I’d definitely try to get Cain over Lowry. Lowry’s K/BB rate stinks. He’s a bit too much like Silva in that regard – just way too hittable. Granted, we don’t necessarily need a fireballer out there in that role, and maybe we can get by with a Lowry type getting out of trouble every inning, but I’d definitely prefer Cain. And you might be right – he might be gettable. I think Snell and Gorzellany are staying put, though.
Pretty good post…
Although, I think Castillo would be a good stop-gap while Gotay matures a bit more. Notwithstanding his personal accomplishments, I think Rickey should go. He’ll forever be remembered as the card playing malcontent. Unfortunately, his clubhouse contributions will come with a heavy dose of controversy.
I’m inclined to keep Mota…he’s a cheap arm that can be used in situational match-ups.
Catcher – Great question. I think LoDuca is gone. Castro is great, but not sure he’s everyday material. Then there’s Pudge…while his numbers are waaaaaaayyyy down from his heyday, he can contribute otherwise…perhaps in a Girardi type manner. Mentor the younger pitchers, be a clubhouse leader and still get decent numbers. An option at best for now.
Keep Mota, trade Heilman. Get a guy like Haren or Blanton for him and Milledge.
Catcher is not that important if you get great production elsewhere. Defelice didn’t kill us last year and neither did Alomar. I’d keep that trifecta (with Castro) going until Tony Pena’s kid gets here in a couple of years.
Of course if you can someone like Ramon Hernandez affordably (in terms of prospects), go for it.
I’ve got nothing against Hernandez. I wanted him a few years back. Maybe he’ll bounce back in the NL.
That made me laugh.
Just throw Haren’s name out there like it is equivalent to Blanton(who would be one of the better starters on this staff still) Danny Haren of the 3.07 ERA and of Cy Young consideration? For AARON HEILMAN? Heilman, Milledge, Gomez might have gotten it done last year. Definitely not this year.
I think you’re right. We would have a better chance of snaring a guy like Ian Snell or Matt Cain. I think both teams could use some OF help and we do have some decent OF prospects.
I’ve also heard that Jason Bay may be on the market due to financial considerations. Milledge, Peflrey, Gotay might be the start of a balanced trade. It could be bigger if you add in Paulino. We might have to add in Mulvey or Carp, plus other mid level prospects.
Ian Snell, Jason Bay and Ronnie Paulino for Pelfrey, Mulvey, Gotay & Milledge. Who would balk? The Mets or Pirates?
Delgado – 118 Ks in 538 Abs, only 52 walks
Dunn – 165 Ks in 522 ABs, 101 walks
I do not like Dunn, but if you can trade Delgado since he has 1 year left on his contract and sign Dunn to play first, it might not be such a bad idea. He is a legitimate threat for the long ball everytime up.
Dunn v. Delgado, you gain 50 Ks but also gain 50 walks and more home runs.
I doubt the Reds will pick up his option. They have a lot of young players they want to get in there.
And lets also be honest. No pitcher was afraid of Carlos Delgado this year. They went after him every time he came up.
Delgado was hurt the whole season, who says he won’t be hurt next season too. But, I think he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. Besides, even in a BAD season, he still hit 24HR and drove in 85RBI. And he missed a considerable amount of time.
If the Angels can’t get ARod, they might be in the market for a DH. I’m not asking for much beyond salary relief. Scott Shields? Darren Oliver?
i think its possible delgado could have somewhat of a bounceback year, but this team cant rely on injured guys to come back healthy, we did that last yr with sanchez and padilla and to an extent alou. trade delgado to the AL im sure someone will take him and part of his salary. this is probably only in the case that dunn is let go and we can sign him otherwise you probably need delgado since theres no one else really out there that improves this team offensively at 1B.
No Glavine. I do not care. Yes, this is emotion talking, but if he’s here, I’m not buying tickets. Period.
As for Dunn, I love Dunn but he’d be bad here. He’s not the fit.
Pick up some solid MR and 1 or 2 second tier FA pitchers (ala Lilly last season) and most important- add 1 guy with fire and leadership. Too bad the Backs signed Byrnes, he’s the perfect guy. I’d take him over all but 3 Mets players that’s for sure
I’m not sure what guy is a good fit. Dunn has legitimate power and is always a threat. That works for me.
Even though I think the Mets should go after Dunn if he becomes a free agent, I can see the reservation. I think you have to consider how the lineup is shaped. Dunn’s strikeout propensity doesn’t really bother me, but you do have to make a judgement as to whether that type of player fits in with the rest of the lineup. In other words, can you carry a bunch of high power, low average, high strikout guys? You might wind up with Dunn and Delgado hitting back-to-back, and it’s a legit concern that you’re stockpiling guys who don’t put the ball in play and make productive outs when they do make outs.
The positives outweigh the negatives with Dunn, but it’s not a n-brainer that we should acquire him.
Just want to point out that a lot of people were afraid at giving 10 million a year to Ted Lilly and Gil Meche last off-season.
How many people would go back and offer a 5 year 50 million deal to those 2 pitchers.
It looks like a better decision to give the money to the up and coming player rather than the veteran
Also, Torrealba and Barrett are free agent catchers that would not be a bad option. Loretta and Iguchi are FAs for second base
Damion Easley could do the same as both Loretta and Iguchi. Barrett is a clubhouse cancer.
Here is the best solution to fix the mets for 2008:
Trade Jose Reyes, Aaron Heilman, and Lastings Milledge to Minnesota for Johan Santana and middle relief pitching prospect.
Sign ARod to play Shortstop for whatever he asks for
Sign every reliever available that has a pulse and then sort them out in Spring Training
If the Mets want to come back slightly better next year then they should do this. If they want to actually really want to improve the team they should file Delcos’ suggestions under “ignore”.
-Jose Reyes doesn’t need to be fixed anymore than David Wright did last year or this year in April. Remember all those doomsday-ers who said he had plateaued as a 20 home run 3B?
-Glavine is a 4th starter at this point. The Mets should give thekids a chance- it will cost them 10 million dollars less which can be spent elsewhere.
-Mota should be released, if only to save the team from Willie’s obsession with using him.
-The Nats overvalue their relievers. No thanks to overpaying good prospects for okay pitchers who’s numbers are inflated by ballpark.
-Give the kids a chance. Humber’s numbers aren’t so bad when you consider he was in the PCL.
-Heilman was the Mets only consistent reliever this year not named Billy Wagner. They’d be dumb to trade him.
-Paul Lo Duca is below replacement level. He had a .689 OPS , a .313 OBP and plays below average defense. The Mets would be better off with Castro and another low salaried player. Lo Duca should be nowhere NEAR Shea next year.
-Alou is fine because they’re paying him pennies compared to what his bat is worth.
-You don’t need both Easley and Castillo. One or the other. I’m in favor of an Easley/Gotay platoon, since Easley rakes against lefties.
-Dunn is useless in the OF because his bat won’t be worth his awful defense. (Awful probably is being too kind) At first base, he’d be better than Delgado. But will the Mets be willing to eat a contract that is absurdly backloaded in order to get Carlos out of here? I doubt it.
The biggest thing the Mets can do next year is give Milledge, Humber and Pelfrey another chance, while teaching their manager how to read lefty/righty splits when using bullpen arms. Most of what Delcos suggests here is anything but bringing in an expensive veteran question mark/downgrade when the Mets can roll the dice with cheaper young players who have considerable more upside.
Good thing Delcos is not a GM and a lousy baseball analyst. Good writer, though.
A-Rod WILL be starting @ SS for the Giants come opening day!
Delgado should bounce back as he’ll be in his walk year AND
He’ll be in line for his Last big contract.
Leave Reyes alone, He’s still a kid. He’s goin’ no-where.
Let Alou go some place else if he won’t retire.–You just can’t go
into next year hoping that at best you get 80/90 games/ 300 ABs
out of a middle of the order guy!
Let Glavine go back to atl. like Alou, at his age ANYTHING you get
out of him is a plus AND it makes NO sense spending $$ on ??
Omar should have 35 to 45 Million $ to spend This off-season
Let’s hope he does it wisely!
Arizonas,Colorados and Cleveland have all shown that IF you
allow your young Prospects play, Good things can/will happen.
Either Omar trusts his scouting staff or he doesn’t.
I’ve got questions about all ours but unless you can package
for a Santana type pitcher i.e. innings eater/ #1 or 2 guy You’ve
got to let some of them compete for spots while reaching out
to Free Agents who it makes sense to pay. AGAIN, not broken-
DOWN, past-prime players who demand top $$.
Be careful w/ Castillo, Always liked him BUT it’s clear his knees
are shot in addition to a major hip operation he had a couple of
years ago. He’s not the same player! Plus he’s 40 lbs. heavier
than he was 3/4 years ago!
AND who knows about his affect on Reyes?, Omar Didn’t
know what I’m sayin’
I dont think A-Rod will go somewhere that isnt championship-ready – somewhere like the Angels or Cubs.
Also, I think Delgado is done. It happens.
No chance the Mets bring Glavine back so get it out of your heads. Not after that last outing. We never accepted him as a Met. He will always be a Brave. There are better options. Ownership will not want to push away anymore of their fanbase by bringing that tool back. His post game comments showed he didnt give a crap. Good ridances.
Here are some better ones:
1) Trade for Johan Santana
2) Release/trade Guillermo Mota
3) Sign Scott Linebrink
4) Sign Kosuke Fukudome
5) Sign Luis Vizcaino
6) STAY AWAY FROM LIVAN HERNANDEZ
Livan Hernandez has nothing. I dont understand how he gets anyone out.
“innings eater” :rolleyes: I would not go after Liv. I’m sure if he has a good post-season for the Diamondbacks, that’ll help him in the FA market.
Well, I think we all can agree with the G’Mota exit.
I’d love to get Cordero.
I’m not a Glavine hater, so I wouldn’t hate him coming back. He did pitch some big games for us.
Adam Dunn? Eh.
First priority is to get Santana at almost all costs. No other move would compare. Anything less is a failure for Omar. The free agent list is pretty pathetic except for some decent relief pitchers. Linebrink and Riske would be terrific additions. Our offense needs some tweaking but isnt our biggest issue. Santana, Linebrink, Riske, and maybe Cordero and our team is a thousand times better. All agree?
“Heilman did not have a good season and his heart isn’t in the bullpen. ”
Was he watching the Mets play? He had a very solid season.
Santana, Linebrink, Riske, and maybe Cordero and our team is a thousand times better. All agree?
Indeed. Also add Holliday,Fielder, A-Rod, K-Rod, and Peavy and they’d be even better.
Omar – Get it done!
I sense the sarcasm. Why is getting Santana in a trade, Cordero in a trade, and signing Linebrink and Riske such a crazy idea? It is very feesible. I didnt ask for ARod, Peavy, KRod, etc. How can you compare the two ideas? What I suggested can be done.
*Heilman, Milledge, Pelfrey, and F. Martinez for Santana
*Gomez and Mulvey for Cordero
*2 yrs at 4.5 for Riske
*3 yrs at 5 per for Linebrink
*1 yr at 6mil for Livan Hernandez as a fifth starter
*Resign Castillo for 2nd base with Gotay as back-up
*Bring Alou back
*Bring LoDuca back
*Sign Rowand
Line-up=
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Beltran
Alou
Delgado
Rowand
LoDuca
Pitcher
Starters=
Santana
Maine
Perez
Pedro
Hernandez/El Duque
Bullpen=
Wagner
Cordero
Linebrink
Riske
Feliciano
The “Show”
Joe Smith
Sosa (longman)
Bench=
Gotay
Endy Chavez
Marlon Anderson
Ramon Castro
Carp (need Back-up 1rst baseman)
All very feesible moves. Offense gets some tweaking, bench solid, starting rotation has ace it needs and inning eaters, and bullpen significantly improved and solid.
Rowand and LoDuca give the clubhouse leadership and hardnosed play.
Mets wish List:
1) Trade for Santana
2) Sign Arod
3) Resurrect Ted Willaims
I love how everyone thinks that the Mets are the only team in the majors that can just go out and get players. THERE ARE 29 OTHER TEAMS OUT THERE!
No we are not the only team out there but we can at least be aggresive and try to make good moves. When the Yankees want a player nothing stands in their way of getting him. Why cant we be more like them? We have our own network now and a new ballpark coming so we cant let the owners cry poverty. With the prices we pay we are allowed to expect them to get the players we want regardless of cost. Whats wrong with wanting Santana? I agree other teams will try to get him but we should make our best attempt. If we dont get him then nothing should stop us from signing him the following year as a free agent. Money should not be a factor when it comes to the best pitcher in the game. I will not stop posting about Santana until either we trade for him or another team does. Sorry but I dont think it is asking for much.
No.
You don’t trade away your entire farm for Santana even when all other considerations are equal.
You DEFINITELY do not do so when Santana AND LIKE 10 OTHER ALL-STAR PITCHERS will be free agents in ‘09.
And you don’t play fantasy GM putting together teams of high-priced all stars for all your prospects. That is a very expensive way to finish 2nd, as the Yankees might have learned this year. There are several reasons why this is the case. Youth gives your team flexibility and identity. It costs less. It gives you something to build around. It allows you to get that one piece of the puzzle you really need; like a Santana when he comes around.
Who are these 10 All Star Pitchers you claim will be available and are any of them as good as Santana? Also, of all of our prospects who do you think will realy develop into a player of the same caliber as Santana? If you can I hope you are right but I doubt it. Its not about getting all all stars, I agree, but rather getting the right players that mix well. The Yankees have made the playoffs every year for 13 years and won the division 12 of those years with 4 rings. I hope the Mets can have that success and I think that begins with getting an ace or two like Santana even if it means trading away guys like Gomez and Milledge who may turn out to be the next Alex Ochoa.
2009 Pitching Free Agents
A.J. Burnett TOR
Rich Harden * OAK
JOHN LACKEY * LAA
JAKE PEAVY * SD
BRAD PENNY * LAD
MARK PRYOR CHC
C.C. SABATHIA CLE
JOHAN SANTANA MIN
BEN SHEETS MIL
JOHN SMOLTZ* ATL
There is every reason to think that Lastings is going to be GOOD, and Gomez has a huge upside. I’d give Pelfrey and Humber more of a chance and sign one of these guys in ‘09.
(Delgado and Teixeira are both FA in ‘09 also)
Thus, by ‘09, my hope is to have Tex and any one of the above pitchers (save for Smoltz) in addition to our other high priced FA (Beltran) and fill the other holes with our guys. That seems reasonable.
And the Yanks got where they got with Bernie Williams and Jeter and Rivera and Pettite and Posada and getting the right free agents (Martinez, O’Niel) behind them. We are not up to that point yet. We need the base first.