John Beamer of The Hardball Times takes at look at the value of eight free agents this season.
Among the free agents Beamer projects the values for include LHP Tom Glavine, C Jorge Posada and OF’s Adam Dunn, Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones.
Beamer projects the values by using the statistical measurement of Wins Above Average or WAA and Wins Above Replacement or WAR.
According to Beamer, Glavine is worth a one-year, $9 million deal, but doesn’t expect Glavine to remain in New York.
As for Posada, Beamer projects the 37-year old catcher will net a two-year deal worth $30 million.
Posada batted .338 with 20 HR and 90 RBI last season.
…woah, i figured posada would be an option for the Mets, but i certainly wouldn’t see Omar Minaya and company paying that much for an aging catcher, especially when they can just retain Paul Lo Duca, who is one-year younger, for much less…
As for the outfield trio of Dunn, Hunter and Jones, Beamer believe both Dunn and Jones could sign six-year deals worth $90 million and Hunter signing a ‘Johnny Damon-type’ deal of $55 million over four years.
…i like the idea of the Mets going after dunn…he could play a corner outfield position in ‘08 and slide on over to first base in ‘09 when Carlos Delgado’s contract expires…yes, his outfield play is atrocious and the Mets outfield would be certainly shaky with Moises Alou in left and dunn in right, but it might be worth it in the long run to have a young power hitting first baseman for 2009 and beyond…
Dunn, who has $13 million club option for 2008, with a $500,000 buyout, batted .265 with 40 HR and 106 RBI, while striking out 165 times in 522 at-bats this season.
{ 43 comments }
To say nothing of how much Adam Dunn looks like a Will Ferrell character.
forget about the offense what we need is pitching and i think if omar is smart he will try to get matt cain from the giants and jon rauch from the nats. That frees heilman back to rotation and then maybe a decent righty closer and the mets are back in business!
“especially when they can just retain Paul Lo Duca, who is one-year younger, for much less…”
yeah, except for the fact that loduca has a terrible arm, more injury prone, and cant come close to posada’s batting production. posada is durable, and has a gun.
please posada doesnt have anything near a gun. and the offensive season that he had was a result of the free agency that he knew was coming at the end of the season. while i think they should look to upgrade at catcher (ramon hernandez?) an elderly posada is not the answer. he had something to prove to the yankess (they didnt want to extend him in spring training) and to the rest of the league bcuz he knew he was an upcoming FA
Dunn is very similar to what we all complain about Delgado. He actually strikes out more than Delgado in the 140+ times per year range. I think he struck out more than 150 times last year.
We need to stop adding old players that aren’t going to get better to this team. That’s what got us in the mess we were in this year.
Of the players listed Posada is the most likely to help. But for all of his offense he plays lousy D.
The one move I would be intrigued by is putting Beltran in a trade to the Dodgers for James Loney (LA Times says the Dodgers might move him for veteran help) and then signing Torii Hunter. Loney will give near to better than the production of Beltran and Hunter is an improvement over Delgado.
its no sure thing that loney will continue to produce at beltran levels but i doubt the dodgers would do it because loney is pre-arbitration and cheap. and dunn has some negatives but he is in his prime and out hitting delgado who is declining.
I don’t get the whole Delgado is declining thing. Everyone is so quick to get rid of him. Can’t you chalk it up to an off year? Is Andruw Jones in decline too? He is 30.
I think most Mets fans loathe Delgado. Nothing would make me happier then to see him in a different uniform next year.
I’m just trying to figure out why. Was it the 38 HR he hit in 2006? Was it the big post season that he had? I understand that he can be abrasive, but he is a tremendous hitter who deserves the benefit of the doubt of an off year.
i dont hate delgado but he is 35 going on 36 and his OPS+ went 161, 134, 104 the last three years. it doesnt take a ’sabrematician’ to see whats going on. hopefully he can stay healthy next year and bounce back a bit but i suspect the 40HR mashing delgado is gone forever.
so you mean any old non-sabermatician knows that one down year by a 35 year old means he’s going downhill fast? Better tell that to Posada, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens among others …
he’s a first baseman; he had a bad year and still went 25/90…. the only area Dunn trumps him is in homers and Ks.
well for every bonds and clemens there are a lot more guys that follow trend of continuing the decline after 2 straight years of worse numbers by the age of 35. doesnt mean it cant happen but its rare, which makes bonds, clemens, et al so special. i hope delgado bounces back to but i wont put money on him getting back to his best years.
last year dunn was better than delgado offensively in just about every measurable way. he also struck out more but got on base more often so he’s still not giving anything up to delgado.
Also, besides very obviously being exceptions to the general rule, Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens both used steroids.
and to be fair to Delgado’s 25 90 numbers. Think of how many opportunties Delgado came up small In RBI situations. With a lineup that is potent as the Mets, with a .270 batting average he would have broken 110 RBIs perhaps or more.
The down year for a great player argument is what I chalk it up to. He had a terrible year, and his HR or his RBI will not make a lick of difference to me because the writing is on the wall.
He has no plate discipline anymore and is compensating for a slow bat by pulling off the ball with his right leg. . If he does something that can change that in the offseason, expect a rebound year. If he doesn’t expect Delgado to be even worse than 2007. Dunn in a the Mets lineup would put him at over 120 RBI. Of course, this is just my opinion, and either way Dunn won’t be in a Mets uniform come April anyway.
i see what you mean about the frustration of someone that Ks alot but dunn is by no means old hes 27 and yea he Ks a ton but he also walks over 100 times a year and has hit 40+ every yr for the past 5 years or so if im not mistaken. and while he plays in a small park he hits absolute bombs that would be done in any stadium.
*done = gone
“…Hunter is an improvement over Delgado.”
Are you serious?
Absolutely. He strikes out less and has speed.
Hunter’s OPS has been increasing the past 3 years while Delgado’s is declining. Hunter had a better OPS last year.
I expanded on my thoughts about Delgado here:
http://www.metsblog.com/2007/10/14/note-marlins-like-lo-duca-again/
Question…how did it work out for the Mets the last time they had 2 CF’s in the outfield?
I would take Delgado on my team over Torii Hunter any day of the week. Let’s not forget, Hunter is no spring chicken either. 31? For the kind of money he is going to demand, not worth it in my opinion.
I understand looking at the numbers and trends, because they usually tell the story over a 162 game season. But, I think Delgado has way too much pride and ability to not bounce back. I think we’re looking at 35+ homers out of the 5 or 6 hole. You won’t sign up for that?
Leave Adam Dunn with Dusty Baker in Cincy.
Lastings Milledge is not pretty enough to be a cheerleader though. Maby he could be the clubhouse chef. Can he cook?
Dunn is overrated. I’d rather see that kind of money spent on pitching than a mediocre slugger.
Amen.
thirded!
thank you!
delgado will have a great year in 08
33hr .287avg 118 rbi
I’m no Delgado fan, but i’d rather gouge my eyes out rather than see Dunn strike out 175 times and play miserable defense.
And imagine a corner outfield of Alou and Dunn…..Beltran would be dead by Memorial Day.
Forget Dunn.
Please…..please….please….FORGET DUNN!
yeah, real overrated. OMG HE STRIKES OUT EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEKKKKKKKKKKKKK NOOOOOOOOOO
oh wait, he averages 40 home runs a year and his .381 OBP would’ve been top 5 on the mets this year.
That would be nice, but also consider a certain switch hitting, gold glove first baseman who is younger than Dunn, and will certainly be a free agent after the ‘08 season. Tex may be a bit more expensive, but we will also have Delgado’s salary off the books, plus with the impending move to Citi Field, the Wilpons may be more willing to spend some cash.
Of course the above is notwithstanding an aquisition of a certain Cy Young lefty ace…
the way i see it is we’re not getting tex and one of the stud pitchers in the same offseason itll be way too much money all at once for the wilpons, if dunn is available and he prob wont be so this is moot id say get him since hes cheaper than tex would be, decline alous option so thats about half the salary there then when delgado comes off the books along with other players use that money to guarantee one of the stud pitchers.
Pedro’s contract is gone in 09; Delgado is gone in ‘09, Duque and Mota gone in ‘09, LoDuca is hoefully gone now, Glavine gone and Alou wil be gone. That’s why we will be able to get both Tex and Santana with a little luck and some intelligence (and if the regulations allow it. Under certain conditions, no team can sign more than 1 perennial All-Star free agent.)
Posada may not be worth that money but if Paulie isn’t coming back then the next-best realistic option is … ????
If the free-agent route is where the 2008 backstop comes from, the Mets may be better off overpaying to get Posada on a 2 or 3 year deal than giving, say, Yorvit Torrealba an overbloated deal.
Sure we know he won’t hit .338 again, but it’s reasonable to expect .275-.280 with an OBP around .375 and slugging around .475. Those are numbers far and away from what LoDuca will sniff (and any other catcher on the market), and his defense is no worse than what we’ve seen in Flushing the past ten years.
Through the years, we have seen one Yankee free agent after another flirt with other teams. Only to then go back to the Yankees a month before Spring Training. If that happens and we end up with Mike DeFelice/Castro platoon….best of luck gentlemen. I wouldn’t hold my breath for Posada.
I completely agree although .275 sounds a bit on the low side. Probably closer to .295 or so but you never know anything could happen. However, a 2 year deal is not the way to go. Try signing him to a 1 year deal for similar annual cash and if he doesn’t bite just go back to Lo Duca for another year and see what options we can get through trading or free agency next year. It’s not like we aren’t used to poorly armed catchers. And as for getting rid of Delgado for Dunn… that is just crazy. Delgado is a veteran presence and will likely bounce back. I’m not saying he is gonna win the batting title as Keith always exclaims he will but remember even with a .265 BA in ‘06 he hit over 100 RBI and that is what matters. Dunn consistently strikes out alot every year while Delgado had one bad year so give the guy a break already he is a great player and deserves another chance. The big problem this year was the pitching not the offense so there is no need to worry about Delgado, let him go one more year unless you can get an A-rod of Miguel Cabrera, we don’t need a Dan Uggla all or nothing type player.
i wish people would do research before spouting off on players. dunn struck out more than delgado, but he also walked 50 more times. he also AVERAGES 40 home runs a year. he’s also 27.
P.S.
rbi is a function of people getting on in front of you. i don’t get why people continue to cite such a worthless statistic. it tells you nothing about a player’s performance.
I completely agree regarding the RBI comment. Dunn would solidify the middle of the lineup and might even push Delgado down to your 7 hitter. How sick of a lineup is that?
There is no reason why the Mets shouldn’t be able to sign a Dunn should he be available AND get some pitching help.
Posada had a once in a lifetime year; He normally peaks about mid-August and falls flatter at season’s end than this year’s Mets. He’s barely an improvement over Piazza in throwing runner’s out and he seems to have made an art in the area of passed balls. Worse, he’s a “true” Yankee — and the transition from Yankee Stadium to Shea has got to be .25 points on your average and 5HR minimum.
Leave him to the Yanks to resign for big money so they can cry in their milk when he goes on the DL next year and finishes with 15/60 .275 and .15 at throwing runners out — as they amass a $300MM salary and still lose in the opening round, maybe this time to the Seattle Mariners.
Bobby V,
That was hilarious. Very true too. I would rather take LoDuca back for one year with a club option. I hear so much about this kid Francisco Pena (Tony Pena’s 18-yr old son) that’s in our farm system. They say he is Tony Pena, with a bat. Give him one or two more years to get himself ready, then in 2010 you can hand over the full time reigns and put him in the 8-hole.
Metsftw,
RBI is a function of people getting on base in front of you, but it’s also a function of 2-out hits, and hits with RISP. Delgado over his career has been an RBI machine. Don’t know how many people would agree with your assessment of it worthless.
I think there’s at least a 50-50 chance that Posada’s contract quickly turns into a nightmare, an albatross for whatever team that signs him. I bet his offense takes a big dive next year and stays low, and he’s a lousy offensive catcher to begin with. He’s also had problems working with Yankee pitchers who have often asked for their own personal catchers. No thanks.
I’d rather they bring back Lo Duca or use Castro in a platoon than take a big risk with Posada.
Even at $11-12 million next year, Posada will be overpaid.
you mean lousy defensive catcher, right? Because even the most delusional Mets fans have to agree that the guy has been a pretty good hitter over his career. He’s never been Mike Piazza, but he’s been one of the 3 or 4 best offensive catchers in the league the past decade.
pass on posada, get a young catcher to platoon with castro or bring back lo duca, either way you should never be relying on your catcher for offense we were spoiled with piazza. If you improve the offense elsewhere then you just take whatever you get out of your catcher.
Ooops. Yes, I meant to say he is a lousy defensive catcher.
As for his offense, sure, it’s been good. But he’s always hit in stacked Yankee lineups. And with his advanced age, it’s just a matter of time before his offensive production falls off a cliff. I can see it happening next year.
Regarding Carlos Delgado, Down believes the first baseman’s talent is simply starting to decline, and, according to Down, Delgado is aware of it. “If you notice his lower half,” Down explained, “Delgado is just late.”
That quote, along with his declining statistics, convinces me Delgado won’t get any better and might get worse.
I’d absolutely love to replace Delgado with Dunn this year. I just don’t see how it can be done. If he becomes a free agent, there’s no way we can add his salary and get rid of Delgado. Getting rid of Delgado would require eating most or all of his salary. There’s no way we can eat $12 million AND pay Dunn another $15 million. My hope is that Cincy will re-up Dunn so that he becomes a FA in the winter of 2008-09 and we can sign him then, barring a better first base solution.
We’re going to have to get used to the idea of dealing with a league-average-hitting Delgado again this year. This team is going to have to import a big bat for the middle of the lineup from somewhere. Personally, I think this is an underdiscussed problem. In 2006, Delgado was a monster in the middle of the order, and anchored the lineup. To my mind, he was the biggest difference between the 2005 and 2006 teams. We scored 30 fewer runs in 2007 than in 2006 despite the addition of Moises Alou. Not good.
Players have down years. It happens.
Before we ride Carlos out of here, let’s take a deep breath and give the guy another chance.
Comments on this entry are closed.