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In a recent chat at Baseball Prospectus, columnist Steven Goldman was asked if the Mets possess enough young talent to trade for a top-flight 
starting pitcher, to which Goldman responded…
“I suspect one of [Lastings Milledge, Fernando Martinez, and Carlos Gomez] will go, but I’m not sure how much value they’ll bring. Martinez is a heck of a prospect, but he’s far away and had an injury year. Gomez is a pinch-runner. He’s never going to hit well enough to play…Milledge has promise, but the Mets need him.”
…it all depends on the level of pitcher that is being targeted…if i’m comfortable trading gomez, as i am, it suggests that he is not as valuable as i would like to think he is…i also think it could be too early to trade fernando, because it’s hard to gauge what he is all about yet…i like milledge, and i want him to succeed in new york, and i believe he is a winner and has a bright future, but if he can be traded in a package for a top, young, hard-throwing starting pitcher, then milledge has to go…but, he can only go in a deal for a no-brainer acquisition…
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(to Matt: first, if I am logged in, why do I need to enter a Name and email…. isn’t that in my log-in information?)
Is it correct to regard Gomez as solely a pinch-runner? Is he really the reincarnation of Esix Snead? I thought he was better than that. His defense is top notch. I view his arm as Guerrro-esque. True is hitting was a disappointment, but does that mean he will not improve (he is only 21)?!
It is not correct. Gomez actually had a decent year at the plate with the Mets in AAA before injuries mandated him coming up to the big league level before he was ready where he predictably struggled. Goldman is way off base here.
He hit .286 at AAA last year, despite being called up/injuries/etc.
In ‘06, .281 in AA, 120 games.
In ‘05, ..275 in A, 120 games.
Looking at ages 19/20/21.
I don’t think he will ever challenge for a batting title, but with progression should be able to hit similar numbers in the major leagues imo. Much like Jose Reyes early in his career, he seems to loathe the walk (27 BB in 430 PA in 06), hopefully he can work on that, but he is still very young so no rush. Personally I’d give him one more year in AAA before I decided what to do with him if I was Omar, unless he could bring Santana back the other way.
But regardless, I’d take .280 45+ steals GG quality defense any day of the week in one of our OF spots.
Problem is, Reyes is an exception. Guys who significantly increase their plate discipline year by year are rare. But the fact that Goldman undervalues Gomez so severely is a sign that he must be kept unless we can deal him away in a no-brainer. His upside is too great to let him go for medioctity.
The nice thing is he’s got several backups in F-Mart and guys no one has heard about, like Maldonado. I say keep the outfield prospects since there is a good chance that out of these three one could be lights out; and unless we get an ace or a young bona-fide all star filling a need (C, 2B) in return, it’s not worth the risk of dealing the wrong one.
I agree that Milledge is needed. With Green likely gone and Alou around for only 1 more year (and not a full year at that), Milledge is the only outfielder from within who is MLB ready. Unless Omar is able to sign Aaron Rowand, then I don’t feel comfortable trading Milledge.
Adam Rowan had a career year last year. He is likely to be overpaid and underperform Milledge in ‘08, to say nothing of he future.
Another winter, another 4 months of Milledge rumors.
Goldman is not really assessing reality. He is throwing out his opinion based on a 21 yr olds inability to hit for the big club at the ML level. If I remember correctly, there are at least a few examples of major leaguers or actually hall of famers who came up too early and struggled mightily in this town.
Willie Mays started like 0-19 and was labeled as a loser
Mickey Mantle came up and had a similar experience and almost chose to quit baseball as a result.
Lets wait a bit on assessing what he can become.
I do not know if he will ever hit like Alex Rios or some other player but I see no reason and no evidence to suggest otherwise.
As to having the chips to get a deal done…..
We have em. It is just what combination would it take.
With the following players we have enough to get any deal for any player done:
Maine
Perez
Heilman
Joe Smith
Felciano
Gomez
Milledge
Mulvey
D. Guerra
F. Martinez
T. Pena
With that grouping, you could snare any player in the league. Add in Wright or Reyes and you could bring back multiple aces from any squad. I do not recommend throwing around Reyes or Wright in any deal just as a point of reference I bring it up because this schmuck can not see that we have enough chips.
The Knicks do not have enough to get Kobe but our squad has plenty to get Santana, Peavey, Webb, Oswalt, Bedard, etc
Pne problem I see with some of the trade “proposals” (your list made me think of it) is this. The cry is we need pitching, pitching, pitching, but some posters then throw out deals where we give up 3 pitchers!
I don’t think you can trade a Maine or Perez at all. What is the point of trading a ML quality pitcher for a guy that probably won’t produce much different results, except they cost a ton more, and you give up extra prospects to boot?
And, if this is such a sellers market for pitching (i.e,, we have to give up the farm for a Blanton type), why undersell our guys?
If Joe B. is worth 3 top prospects, why not trade Maine for a package to fill in our position player holes (say a young C and 2B to shore up 2 weak spots in the organization?)
Anyway, I guess my rant is that other teams pitchers are deemed to be so valuable we have to give up anything for them, but our guys seem to have no value and get treated as worthless throw aways (or throw ins).
OK, off the soap box now.
Completely agree that it has not been easy for the Mets. But in the past few years alone, corner outfielders have hit the market that are of high qualtiy….Carlos Lee, Soriano are two that quickly come to mind. Others in the outifeld but CF are Beltran, Rowand, Andrew Jones. I am sure the list is much longer if I researched it.
Plus my comment was not that it was easy….just that it was easier than finding ace level pitching.
i like Alou by the way. Want him back.
My previous post here got lost. I clicked on a new reply to comment to a different post of yours below before posting it. The comments about the outfielders was meant for your post further down.
As to this post on possibly seeing what we could get back for a Maine or Perez…..I think there is some promise in that. But next year not this year. Next year when Santana and Webb and others hit the market, possibly we can retool by trading Maine or Perez and getting a stud 2nd basemen plus pitching prospects for a proven 15 – 17 game winner in either of these guys.
Doing it this year is foolhearty as we do not have the options to fill in.
I would trade Heilman plus Gomez for Willis if the market allowed for that deal. Willis stock is way down and can not get 3 top prospects like was discussed in the past. They could hold on to him but likely Cabrera or Willis is going this offseason. I for one would like to pry the pitcher away
Willis is way too risky to give up a damn thing.
willis is way too risky and even cabrera is risky that guy has DH written all over him, if the mets got him id be worred that as soon as he got that big extension he’d let himself go (yes even more than he already has), and it would hurt his production.
there are no “no brainer” pitchers just waiting to be traded for. Milledge needs to stay. He is the only ML ready OF prospect they have.
martinez is a tough call, but if he has the value, move him.
Gomez is the one to trade if he can bring a good enough return.
I don’t think Omar is willing to part with Gomez. I think right now he is more untouchable than Milledge. Just my gut there.
While it is hard to choose who should stay and who should go….we definitely know that finding a corner outfielder is easier than finding an ace level pitcher. I’d part with any of the three OF prospects. They could become perennial 25 hr 100 rbi guys or they could all become Ricky Ledee and show it for an instant but never recapture it.
The team has a real need for an ace level starter. While I could argue it makes more sense to keep all the chips and sign a decent guy like Livan Hernandez or move Heilman into the rotation and wait until next year when the crop of Free Agent pitchers is much better…I know that the NY fan base really can’t accept it and they should not. We can do better.
Given the Mets history, where did this “easy to find top corner OF” idea come from?
If it is so easy, how do we always seem to end up with an ALou and Green situation?
Since Straw left town, it hasn’t exactly ben a bumper crop of MVP candidates running around out there!
We really can’t. Yankee entitlement was one winning season away in ‘04. Yankee entitlement always kills us. And Mets fans deserve whatever they get.
Omar..please don’t move Milledge in any package unless it brings back a stud pitcher. My preference is to keep this kid and move the others. He gives the team some fire and some attitude that was severely lacking last year IMO and if he sticks around I think he’ll join Wright and Reyes as our linchpin players for years to come.
First off, Gomez is a stud. I know a lot of folks rip others in posting threads but this Goldman guy is seriously off base regarding Gomez.
Milledge is a stud too. And there is, IMO, a good chance FMart will pan out as well.
That leaves us in a tough position. It would be great to see Milledge and Gomez starting in L and R in 2009 and FMart maybe starting 1st? But we must deal from strength and package either Milledge of Gomez with a whole bunch of other prospects (and maybe Heilman too) for Johan. They want young guys right? Include Carp, Deolis, and AHern in the package.
Gomez is a stud? He has the tools and potential to be a stud maybe, but hitting .280 in AAA with no power hardly equates to a stud just yet. Sure he’s better than Goldman’s analysis, but he’s not a stud. Let’s see how he does in AAA in 2008.
I’d be far more willing to trade Gomez than Milledge. Lastings at AAA in 2006 had a line of .277/.388/.440/.828 as a 21 year old in one of the most difficult parks in all of professional baseball to hit in. (Norfolk)
Gomez on the other hand, as a 21 year old went .286/.363/.414/.777 for New Orleans. It’s not bad for his age, but far less impressive when you consider ballpark and the general hitter friendly nature of the PCL.
Milledge really does have a chance to be a very, very good player for the Mets for years to come. The odds of him flaming out are smaller than Gomez because he’s farther along in his development and has shown more power and plate discipline than Gomez.
Now if Willie will just give him a real chance instead of worrying about how he celebrates….
not challenging you, just want to know your basis for saying that Norfolk is one of the most difficult hitters parks in pro ball.
I’m sure most of us never knew that.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/weighted_park_factors_2003_2005/
If the link doesn’t work for some reason, try googling “minor league park factors”
Conveniently, Norfolk and Shea are listed right next to each other. Norfolk deflates offensive stats even more than Shea does as crazy as that sounds. That’s what makes Milledge 2006 AAA season so impressive.
I could be wrong, but I get the sense Omar realizes how good Milledge is but Willie doesn’t. Otherwise, I’m guessing Milledge would have been traded for the likes of Joe Blanton or Javy Vasquez already.
thanks, brother.
As for my thoughts on MIlledge, I have a post below.
milledge has to play right field next year. is this even an issue? you just can’t trade him, there is nobody to take his spot. i would hang on to martinez, there might be something there. but gomez should go as soon as we can get anything that can help the team next year.
for some reason a lot of people think gomez is going to be great, and i’m afraid omar is one of those guys. I got a little sick that day he was in the booth talking about reyes and gomez being our leadoff hitters someday. it’s disturbing what a dumb idea that is. hopefully he’s just trying to build up trade value.
I don’t see what’s so promising. I know he’s young but i think we’re looking at the next nook logan here, guys. his plate discipline, at EVERY level, is terrible. and as far as his eye at the plate getting better with age, that’s not really how things work. jose reyes is the exception to this idea, not the rule. most guys that can take a walk can do it their whole lives, and guys that can’t will never be able to do it. you very rarely see the improvements/fluxuations you do in reyes
i just hope the mets can realize how overrated speed is and trade him for a decent reliever to an organization that hasn’t figured it out yet. try to get something out of the nats or dodgers. they’re way dumb. maybe even the pads, do they have somebody to replace cameron yet?
I am off the Gomez bandwagon myself. This guy has the makeup of an Alex Escobar or Alex Ochoa. I see little pop in his bat and horrible plate discipline. In fact, even Reyes had better K/BB stats in the minors.
Once he qualified after enough at bats last year, Gomez actually led the entire Majors in % of plate appearances with 0-2 counts. I liked his enthusiasm and electricity, but he ain’t reaching base too much. I hope I am wrong. But If I am right, I sure hope the Mets deal him for some value before I come to that realization.
But you have to admit….it sure is fun to watch him run.
Why is everyone so hell bent on plate discipline? Does Torii Hunter have plate discipline? Jimmy Rollins? Andruw Jones? Vlad Guerrero? Did Roberto Clemente? Willie Wilson? Or Willie Mays?
Anyone who is down on Carlos Gomez, let me ask if you would like to have Alex Rios right now. Then go and check Rios’ stats when he was aged 19-21. No power, no plate discipline — just raw talent. And his body type and tools are strikingly similar to Gomez, minus the speed.
Gomez may not have the “plate discipline” to be a leadoff hitter some day. So what? He could turn out to be a very nice #6 hitter with a Gold Glove and 50+ steals to boot (or do basestealers always have to bat first?).
And if I can get a strong relief pitcher/#4 rotation guy right now for a ‘potential’ Alex Rios, excellent. I’m all over it. b/c Milledge being ready right now, and Martinez being a lefty bat with more power, makes Gomez the most expendible of the 3.
That’s all I’m saying.
Amen to that, Matt.
Once again it becomes apparent the shelves in the Mets farm system are close to barren or at least not nearly as talent-laden as we would like or the Mets would like everyone to believe. Produce a decent second baseman already, how hard can that be?
If Lastings can be traded for a no-brianer upgrade to the rotation, so be it.
But otherwise, Lastings Milledge is the everyday RightFielder at Shea in ‘08. There is no debate. All you Shawn Green advocates can pipe down. I don’t want to hear about an Endy/Milledge platoon. And to anyone about to type the words “Adam Dunn”, may your keyboard spontaneously combust.
Aside from injecting some everyday enthusiasm into this team, Milledge also goes 20/20 next year. That gives us 4 bonafide 20/20 players in the starting lineup. That is Talent. That is Athleticism. Considering 3 of the 4 are under 25, that is Youth. That also happens to be the exact path this club needs to be on.
Milledge is going to be a contributor. And Willie has got to embrace that.
Finally someone with brains regarding Dunn. He is awful, and yeah his OBP is high in relation to his BA but his BA is awful so it would be similar to what Milledge should achieve this year of around .365 give or take +/- .020. Although unless we can get someone at the same level as Santana for Milledge I would say no to the trade. Milledge for Blanton? No way.
if you think adam dunn is a bad baseball player, you lack a fundamental understanding of what a good baseball player is. adam dunn is awesome, and this is not up for debate. if you think he stinks, you’re just plain wrong. try learning something about baseball somewhere other than the newspaper and hack tv analysts.
this team would be very lucky to have dunn. unfortunately he’s probably not going to be available. milledge is good, i’m not saying that, i like him in right. but you’d be nuts to take dunn over alou
If you think Adam Dunn is awesome, than I would love to field a team against your ‘awesome’ roster everyday. Hell…make it a doubleheader.
Adam Dunn is obviousy a good ballplayer, but he is far from awesome and probably the last thing the Mets need. We already have an Adam Dunn, his name is Carlos Delgado. I would consider swaping him for Delgado, but that isn’t happening. And a lineup featuring two slow one-dimensional players who have a propensity to not put the ball in play and play very suspect defense is not an improvement.
Stop with the arrogance, presumptions of our source of knowledge, and personal attacks. It displays your juvenile ignorance far more than your elite baseball knowledge.
could either of you honestly explain why BA is more important than OBP?
dunn gets on base and he has huge power. those are the two most important things baseball hitters can do. should we really be concerned about getting guys in the 20/20 club?
I think having 20/20 players is a measure of a team’s athleticism. I am all about fielding a team of great multi-tool athletes. Those teams, as history proves, are usually playoff teams. That is my only point.
Teams with an overload of Adam Dunn-types are hit or miss (literally and figuratively). After watching 5+ years of Adam Dunn, I can honestly say that he has maybe beaten us once. I don’t fear Adam Dunn. Compare that to Brandon Phillips (multi-tool athlete), who has beaten us on the field, at the plate, or on the basepaths probably 4 times in just the past 2 seasons. That’s a very narrow and precise example, but I can name another 10 right off the top of my head.
You can jerk off to OBP and Bill James all you want. But it is plain and simple that an athletically superior and talented team is a winning team.
you lose arguments when you start to treat OBP as just another tool a guy can have. it is, without a doubt, the single most important stat for determing a players offensive value.
Twenty stolen bases is meaningless, especially when you’re not considering success rate. a guy like dunn makes up for not stealing bases in his slugging. you are nuts if you’d take 20/20 over 40/0.
This is not about winning or losing arguments. It’s a forum for expressing views or opinions. If you want to be competitve on a blog, that’s your source of pride. I’d rather lace up the spikes and do so out on the playing field. B/C that is where the results are less subjective.
OBP is an essential measurement of plate discipline and control of the strike zone. 20/20 players typically already have that, or at least pretty damn close to the .380 Adam Dunn level. So yes, I would take a young athletic 20/20 player over the one-dimensional 40/0 Adam Dunn everytime.
Dunn, who does not produce well with RISP and plays most of his games in the bandboxes of the NL Central, will not be the same power hitter at Shea. He is also often criticized for taking too many walks, not swinging the bat enough, and not producing. His low RBI in is not to be blamed on the players hitting ahead of him. In fact, he has one of the lowest contact ratios in the entire Majors. When he swings, he more often misses. How would you want that garbage on this team?
And if nuts is taking a 20/20 player over a 40/0 player, than I guess you should’ve put me in a straight jacket for preferring David Wright over Dunn prior to last year. Tell you what…you bring your 8 Adam Dunn’s to the ball field, I’ll bring my 8 David WrightsGrady Sizemores….and let’s just have a good old time.
20/20 what? Eyesight?
He needs to get to 10/10 first.
Though, he did once hit 13 HRs and steal 23 bases in the South Atlantic League back in 2004. That’s something.
Project last years stats over another 330 ABs, and you get very close to a 20/20 ballplayer.
I wonder what Steve Goldman thought of Lou Brock when he first game up.
Better yet — did he have an opinion of Alex Rios three years ago?
I have to say one thing. Milledge is untouchable unless its for a Santana, peavy, oswalt or bedard type of pitcher. Blanton who i really like is a tier below, but instantly replaces glavines production and has much better stuff.