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At Sabernomics.com, J.C. Bradbury explains why he believes Alex Rodriguez will opt out of his current contract and eventually sign a new seven-year, $244 million deal.
Additionally, Bradbury is soliciting your predictions, with the winner getting a free copy of his book, The Baseball Economist.
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whoa there! what’s this talk about arod? the mets have no need for his 140+ ribbys/yr, durability, hustle, name recognition, revenue generations, seat-filling, etc. save the money for another mo vaughn instead. so…enough of this ridiculous arod talk!
its not like we have a ton of money coming off the books after 08, we should definitely not try to get arod, we have moises alou for 23 games, and carlos delgado, i mean hes due for a bounce back, broken hand in the last game, look how well he did in 07 coming off a hand injury….why would we get a proven commodity when we can rely on old question marks. plus we need to save all that money for people who may not be free agents next offseason. besides offense isnt important, look at the teams in the WS, those teams cant hit. (this whole comment was sarcasm just in case anyone had doubts)
Yeah, the Mets would be completely foolish to at least look at the guy who is probably the best position player in the game. While anyone getting 7/$244m ($34.85m per season) is ridiculous, he is going to be a draw where ever he ends up, and in a few years when he’s closing in on *Bond’s* record, ESPN will be all over him, along with the rest of the bb world. $ in the bank.
Then you will have to endure Morgan and Miller on the ESPN games even more regularly. And then he’ll get the FOX games too and you have to deal with McCarver and Buck…even more reason not get A-Rod. =)
ill give it to you ny cuban, those are probably better reasons to not get arod than alot of the other ones given on this site.
i concur – no buck/morgan/miller and mccarver is worth millions. maybe billions. no sarcasm whatsoever
Am I the only person in America that thinks that there is no team on this planet that will offer A-Rod more than $25 million? I can’t see him getting better than a 7 yrs/$175 million ($25/year).
maybe 8 yrs at $25/26 million per……no more than that, I can’t see it!
When are owners and GMs going to get wise to the Bora$ hype machine? At least Scheurholz (sp?) had the brains to ignore his BS machine about Andruw Jones.
i dont think anyone is worth that, but will he get it? ill answer that with another questions, other than dice-k which is an exception since there was only 1 team to negotiate with, when has scott boras NOT gotten what he wanted?
Well, Damon didn’t get the 6 year deal he was looking for.
im not talking about length im talking about dollars per year.
Didn’t he initially float out a $200M/10 year deal for Beltran?
And he wanted free salted peanuts for Newhan, but Omar wouldn’t budge.
Damon didn’t get the years he wanted. Beltran also ended up with less than Boras originally floated and Kevin Millwood had to settle for a one-year deal after all five of those “mystery” teams suddenly vanished.
yes, lets all split hairs now everyone, im sorry for saying scott boras always gets his clients a ton of money.
No one’s splitting hairs. You asked for some examples, and I gave you some. i’m sure there are more. But I (as I’m sure everyone else would as well) agree with you that Boras always gets his clients a ton of money.
But does he always get what he asks for? No.
I don’t remember anyone talking about giving Arod $25 mil a season last time, until Hicks lost his mind. It’s generally agreed upon that he was bidding against himself. Boras, with his books and his graphs and his pie charts, is the king of bluster and trying to make GMs panic and back down. But sometimes, it doesn’t work. No one was going near Damon for 6 or 7 years (rightly so) and Millwood, well, that was a joke in itself. Now he HAS a preious commodity in Arod, but to pay a guy — even the best guy in the game — 10 to 12 million more than the next highest paid player is quite a feat. There’s no doubt Arod is going to get paid, I’m just not so sure it’s going to be as high as some people here think it is.
Yes – the next highest bigger for A-Rod back in 2000 bid $50 million less than Hicks. Bora$ played Hicks like a fiddle.
Up until last season with Sabean, it looked as if GMs were getting smart about dealing with Bora$.
erm “bidder” not “bigger”
fine than allow me to rephrase what i said….when was the last time scott boras didnt end up laughing all the way to the bank (not counting millwood bc like you said that was a total joke and God himself wouldnt have gotten him more than 1 yr)
hate to say it, but a-rod is worth $30m+. in a free market, teams are willing to pay him. he’ll bring in lots of revenue in terms of ticket sales, jersey sales, tv ratings, etc.
bottom-line: most people said his current contract was crazy. years later, a-rod will make million more each year. won a few mvp’s. will end up filling his homepark for years as he chases records.
within the next year (or two) delgado, alou, glavine, pedro, green, lo duca come off the books with a new stadium coming into play. the mets can sign him. it will help sny and team revenue along with helping this team for years.
i’m in favor of it. though the mets must address the pitching along with the signing especially the bullpen. the other problem is where to play wright. he already said he’d move for a-rod. 1st is occupied by delgado for 1 more year (can’t be traded with that contract). 2nd seems like a risk with a corner infielder.
the thing with delgado is, everyone says he cant be traded with that contract, so if we’re going to pay him either way in 08 why not just trade him and eat as much of it as we can and move eitehr arod or wright t 1st. youre telling me the tigers or angels wouldnt be willing to pay him say 6 mill next yr of his salary?
it would be shocking enough if they spent for a-rod. i can’t imagine that they’ll turn around and pay most of delgado’s contract. he is also coming off an injury so teams would be worried about even paying $6m.
delgado is on the books for $16m next year + $4m buyout for 2009 meaning next year is really $20m since there is no way he’s coming back in ‘09
and by “they” i mean the wilpons
The Marlins are paying us $4 million for Delgado
marlins are paying $7m over the life of the contract (2.3 last year) meaning it’s pro-rated.
it won’t help the wilpons with the 2008 or 2009 payroll. paying delgado $16m (08) and $4 (09) is big money even if you chop of $2m. $30m for a-rod and say $12m for a traded delgado =a $42m increase in 2008 without addressing the pitching
next year the mets need lots of cash for all those #1 level free agent pitchers. not to mention pedro and ollie will be up to.
it comes down to the wilpons will to win.
i really doubt a-rod is coming to the mets, but it’s an interesting thing to consider
it would obviously be very out of character for the wilpons to do what i originally suggested. Not to say it cant be done, just sad that it wont.
Zen,
I think your math is a little off here. We wouldn’t be adding both Arod and Delgado’s salary. Delgado’s salary is already included in our payroll. It would just be Arod. We just wouldn’t be subtracting Delgado’s salary (at least not all of it, only what the other team picked up.)
If our payroll is $115 mil (or thereabouts) and we add $30 for Arod it would be $145 mil. Then we trade Delgado to Team X and they pay only $2 mil of his salary. That $2 mil would actually come off our $145 million dollar payroll, making it about $28 mil we would be taking on by signing Arod.
fair enough, i shouldn’t have used the word “increase” . i just can’t see the wilpons paying the 2 players $40m+ next year with only 1 producing for the team.
The yankees are being very smart here. By saying they will not be in the running for A-Rod if he opts out, the market for his services will be lower (in theory). With the yankees out of it, other teams will not have to “outbid” the yankees. This should be a very interesting off season.
heres the thing though, they can say that, have boras conduct his negotiations with whomever, then before he signs the deal the yanks come in and offer just enough more and basically end up getting him for cheaper than if they were in it all along.
although they won’t be getting any money from the Rangers if A-Rod opts out.
thats true, but i mean come on when has money ever stopped the yankees. i just cant see them risking the mets, angels, or even red sox (barring some fancy roster moves) landing arod.
The truth is AROD pays for himself multiple times over for his teams. In Texas, John Hicks got $500M in a FOX cable contract and 2 stadium endorsements soon after inking AROD. Forbes had the Rangers leaping from near bottom into the top 5 of valued MLB franchises. We all know how the Yankees attendance and YES profits have leapt into the stratosphere the past few years.
If I’m Fred Wilpon, and I’m getting paid $20M/year by Citicorp for stadium naming rights, I hand that over to AROD and tack on the balance out of pocket, because that ringless “24+1″ bastid is going to jump the Mets franchise from Big Apple 2nd banana into the Google zone of profits.
Five years from now, when the Mets are still in that zone with Arod, Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Milledge et al still cranking it bigtime, Steinbrenner will be spinning you know where while his kids run that franchise into the ground like a Cleveland shipbuilding company.
Ouch.
A-Rod is not going to come to Shea, or Citi Field. Freddie will not pay what he is asking for, and 7 years @ $25m a season is $175m, not $125m. $25m per is what he makes now, that would not be a raise, it would be a contract length extension. That is not what A-Rod/Boras are looking for. They want both.
don’t we have a third baseman already?
Wright won’t be moving to second base or first base.
Plus I doubt that Arod would want to stay in NY with the Mets.
It’s the Yanks or the west coast. L.A. is the perfect fit. They have cheap, young talent to surround him with and they can dump Nomar/Gonzo and put Kent right behind him for some insurance.
If I’m Arod i get out of NY and the media and settle in to Bel Air.
arod will go where scott boras tells him to go.
There ain’t nobody but the Yankees that can afford a contract like that…
If the Wilpons are realistic I think they will pony up the money for Arod.
Look, Omar has done some pretty good things with this team. But in reality Reyes and Wright were drafted by Steve Phillips. Beltran, Pedro and Wagner would have gone anywhere including Japan for the money they were offered and Omar is batting about .500 on trades.
There is a good chance Omar screws this team up going into the new stadium and you have a repeat of this year or god forbid the 2002-2004 years.
Signing Arod virtually guarantees that along with Wright, Reyes and Beltran this team makes the playoffs the next 4 or 5 years. They may never win anything, but with that supporting class Arod’s monster stats should be enough to win this division or at least make the wild card.
Wow, what revisionist history! What lengths some will go to in order to hype the most overpaid player in baseball.
Fact is, Hicks signed his Fox broadcast deal way before A-Rod was even a blip on his radar screen. Fact is attendance didn’t rise when A-Rod was a Ranger. Nor did their road attendance. A-Rod is not a big draw around the country despite his performance.
And fact is, A-Rod’s 162-game seasonal average output is just 128 RBIs, exceeded by Ramirez!
A-Rod is the most overrated and overpaid player in baseball who is unclutch and can’t carry a team to a championship because any team he’s on has its focus and budget skewed by him and his contract.
I hope the Wilpons don’t even consider going after him this winter.
It’s a business/entertainment industry…
Hell, the members of Seinfeld and friends each got $1 million per episode…So, $25 million for 162 games doesn’t seem all that bad…plus they never sold seinfeld shirts/hats (just dvd sets)
I find it difficult to pay someone to play a game that amount of money, but if someone’s making your company/business much more profitable than their salary…you pay them.
The thing is, it’s always been hard to make a case that A-Rod makes teams much more profitable. In fact, the opposite could be said of his time with the Rangers when payroll went up but attendance didn’t.