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In a mailbag for MLB.com, A’s beat writer Mychael Urban suggests that, if the A’s are going to trade a starting pitcher, it will be RHP Rich Harden, not RHP Joe Blanton or RHP Dan Haren.
As Urban points out, Harden has missed roughly 60 percent of his starts over the last three seasons due to injury.
Of course, during his last 38 starts, Harden is 16–7 with a 2.95 ERA, having struck out 197 batters through 200 innings, while opponents have hit just .193 against him.
…tough one…very tough, considering it will cost at least Lastings Milledge…i mean, this guy stinks of Mark Prior, or Kerry Wood, i.e., great when healthy, but never healthy…that being said, Rick Peterson drafted harden in 2000, while with the A’s, and say what you will about rick, but he and Ray Ramirez have seemingly done a very good job of keeping their young pitchers healthy, which is supposedly one of rick’s strong suits…
By the way, at Gotham Baseball Magazine, Mark Healey has repeatedly written that if the Mets were to ever make a deal with the A’s, including Milledge, it will only be for Rich Harden or Dan Haren, not Blanton.
Last May, on the MetsBlog Podcast, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney talked about Oakland potentially trading Harden during the season, saying…
“I think they absolutely could pull the trigger…Now you have this great, young, talented pitcher, Rich Harden, who when he takes the mound, he’s definitely dominant, but…they don’t know if they can depend on him and right now he probably has a value where you could get two really good young players for him – and that’s the direction Oakland is going. I think if he gets five to seven good starts when he comes off the DL, and that will be in two weeks, and then I think, absolutely, they will put him out on the market and will try to get players who can help them with the rebuilding process, and I think that’s going to begin very soon.”
…of course, those comments were made in may, but i don’t know how the scenario changes just five months later, when more teams can be interested…
The 25–year-old Harden will earn $4.5 million in 2008, after which his contract contains a $7 million team option for 2009.
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Unfortunately in today’s environment this is really the only way to acquire young, top flight starting pitching…Considering we probably will not be able to get Santana (free agency notwithstanding), and the unlikelihood of the A’s moving Haren, this may be a move that Omar should strongly consider. Granted it was of a different nature, but Reyes was once a highly injury prone player as well. Assuming the A’s asking price is not outlandish, this is a move I’d make if I were Omar.
Haren, yes. Harden, no.
But Beane is going to want A LOT for Haren and Blanton has a lot of value as an innings guy. For the guy who says we need an ace, I don’t see one really on the Rockies. The Mets have Pedro anyway and Maine has the ace potential.
With the offense that the Mets have, they simply need consistency coming out of the pitching staff next season. Then, when we lose Pedro and Delgado after next season, we can open CitiField with a new superstar
yeah, but it makes it easier if you do have that ace to anchor your staff. i mean how many 2007 rockies teams are there out there? look at the sox theyve ridden on beckett to get them where they are. i think you get harden becasue if he is healthy, you have a dominating ace. if hes not, hes only costing you about $5 mil per season which isnt THAT much compared to other players. there are plenty of OF out there that can replace milledge. carlos gomez or fernando martinez anyone?
The thing is that the Mets are currently built a certain way that lends itself to a certai model. They have no ace, but they have a solid rotation of 3 #2 starters (Maine, Perez, Pedro-who should be considered a #2 at this point in his career) and a guy who I think should turn a corner this year in Pelfrey.
When you’ve got a solid up and down staff like that, it woud make more sense to solidify it with more solid pitchers and fortify it with offense, and take an ace when one becomes available than to go and trade other potentially key cogs in the wheel (like Milledge, or, as some have bizarrely suggested, Maine) for a prettier starting pitcher and tampering with the team’s identity.
I do agree with not giving up someone like a maine, but why not trade an OF when you have three young possible OF studs (beltran, gomez, martinez) if its for a pitcher who has been dominant in the AL. i cant even imagine him in the NL and in a pitchers park like shea. from what it seems the A’s are shoping him so i dont think they will be getting a ton in return like some other aces (santana, oswalt, etc). While pelfrey has potential, he hasnt shown a thing at any level of pro ball. but i also do see where youre coming from with the chemistry and make up of the team being priority #1
Gomez + Pelfrey. Do it.
Stitch Milledge stays.
I have the biggest man crush on Harden. He has got to be one of the most tantalizing guys in baseball. His stuff is so stinking good… but he teases because of his health issues. I’m always eager to see him perform just to see him pitch.
With that said, he isn’t worth two of our top prospects (Milledge + pelfrey). I’d give Beane one top prospect + a lesser prospect, but definitely not two.
I’d say Gomez and Humber, but I’m certain beane would want more. So, to make a long story short, I agree with gomez + pelfrey. Now, to make that dream a reality…
The chances that Pelf becomes a #2 starter and Gomez becomes a quality OF while Harden continues to migrate in and out of the DL are too great for that.
Whatever your feelings on small ball verse money ball, I think we can agree that Gomez is exactly the type of player that Billy Beane would say is overrated: High speed, low on base percentage/walks. No way Beane takes Gomez instead of Milledge.
He may smell like Prior or Wood, but so did Josh Beckett when the Red Sox acquired him. I’d take it in a heartbeat.
eh beckett had blister problems, ill take that ove ra guy with elbow/shoulder issues. hes more like aj burnett. hes an interesting trade candidate but not worth milledge sorry thats just ridiculous. its kind of laughable that a guy who has missed more than half his starts has any sort of value.
Wouldn’t hiring Leo Mazzone to re-teach Pelfrey & Humber to scrap that off-speed ground ball emphasis and become born-again intelligent power pitchers be better than to once again trade our prospects to cater to Rick Peterson?
Humber was never a power pitcher. He lives off of his curveball, which is his best pitch. I think he tops out at 92mph.
Pelfrey, I can agree with you on.
Hey guys,
Pelfry throws a hard sinker like Webb and Wang, the guy HAS to be a groundball pitcher. That’s not Peterson’s influence that’s just looking at the kid’s tools and doing the best thing for him.
Ah yes, Rich Harden…the bane of all fantasy baseball owners foolish enough to waste a high round pick in hopes of him staying healthy. And yet, why do I once again feel compelled to give him another chance?
Haha, been there, done that! Feel your pain, man…
Every year I’ve wanted him…
Thankfully, I haven’t yet wasted a high pick on him yet. I keep waiting for him to fall to the 10th to 12th round, but it never happens.
well the cardinals took a chance on chris carpenter and he won a cy young and a WS for them (although it was really bc of weaver and suppan). but he has also missed 2 entire seasons for them.
From what I can gather, Harden is headed for rotator cuff surgery or Tommy John surgery, if not both.
What could the asking price be for someone who’s salary you’ll end up eating for a season?.
frankly thats what i dont understand, how does a guy like this have value to demand actual top prospects.
yeah u people are insane. Listen, Harden is top 3 pitchers IN THE GAME when HE”S HEALTHY. But he has yet to prove this. Why would u give up humber AND GOMEZ for a COMPLETE question mark when you could get Joe Blanton, who is cheap, durable, effective, and young to slide into our 3 or 4 rotation spot for YEARS to come..OR get chad cordero for that same price, to solidify our bullpen, which i think was a problem last year, right? And in 2 years when Wags is gone, we have our closer to take over, no searching…i’d take harden for like Deolis Guerra and a Mike Carp type…nothing more
Guerra/Carp for Harden isn’t a bad deal. The upside….
Anybody play lotto?
Blanton does not interest me. he’s a 3-4 pitcher at best. We need an ace.
Losing gomez and humber isn’t going to hurt us. There’s very little upside for us to keep them around because they’ll never really get a chance to develop in the majors. However, the potential reward of getting Harden is worth the risk, in my opinion.
Cordero is pretty good, but I don’t think he has as much value or upside as harden. And I hardly think he will be our closer for years to come, especially with his declining velocity and declining K/BB rate.
I hope we get him if for no other reason that to see the New York Post headlines when he dominates….”DICK HARDEN”
yeah, and then sign Kosuke Fuk – u – dome….need I go on?
It could get ugly at Shea…
no risks. 2008 is a must win year. again: this organization and its fans cannot stomach another 2007. the mets get 1 pass after a very good 2006. don’t play games with the unknown or risky players
i agree with the “no experiments” philosophy, id rather go after an oswalt type, but if harden can be had for say carp/mulvey or carp/guerra and a lower prospect i think its one of those things you cant pass up.
i’s make that trade too. it would be highway robbery. my concern is trading milledge, gomez, f-mart, pelfrey, humber for a guy who will be on the dl (for sure).
i doubt carp will do much. mulvey looks like he can pitch (bannister-type), but is worth trading just in-case harden stays healthy. that trade isn’t a risk though. the mets would still be able to trade for oswalt.
I know – we can then go and get Russel Martin from the Dodgers for whichever of Guerra & Mulvey doesn’t get us Harden, combined with the best Met prospect from the AFL. That solves catching too.
Next,. for 2B, we can send a bag of balls to Baltimore for Brian Roberts. (Oh, wait – our old buddy Jim Duquette isn’t there anymore; make that 2 bags of balls.)
Then since Papelbon of Boston clearly isn’t working as a starting pitcher (how many times did he even throw 2 innings last year…geez!), let’s cut a deal with Boston where Steiner Sports promises never to sell another “Billy Buckner looking for Mookie’s grounder” picture again in exchange for Papelbon.
Huh?
What?
Yes, dear. I’m awake.
No, I wasn’t dreaming.
[rolleyes]
I think Beane’s willingness to deal may be an indication as to how severe the injury is.
Too iffy. You can’t discount (or ignore) the injury problems.
So, if they guy was reliably healthy, he is worth a bunch.
But, given his issues, and likelihood of breaking down and/or needing major surgery, you get .$25 on the dollar for him (or at least, that’s what you should offer the As).
If beane thinks he is really worth top talent, he would keep him. basically, he is damaged goods, but Beane will ask full retail for him.
So, lowball an offer at best, or just pass.
If the studs are not obtainable (at a cost even vaguely reasonable to pay), they Omar needs to figure out which guys, from the in-house ones , and the FAs/trades available, or likely to put in a solid year.
yes, that means looking at someone like jennings or Colon that had an off year, or maybe was held back a bit by an injury that should be healed by next year.
I’m stil comfortable with 4 holdovers (Pedro, Maine, perez and Pelfrey), as long as they can add a solid 5th guy that can give quality starts and pitch deep into games on a regular basis.
Not Glavine though! He doesn’t really qualify as going deep.
Note that I look at El Duqe out of the pen, long man, short man, spot starter, whatever guy. So basically a much better #6 starter in case they need a fill in. Humber would be the other emergency guy.
So, the last spot goes to ??. Lots of options. Big trade (Santana, oswalt), medium trade (Blanton, etc.), FA (Silva, jennings), an Omar special (one of the guys from the pirates? Someone no one else thought possible?).
maybe even a dark horse from in house (heilmann?), but that depends on pen pick ups).
However the do it, I expect that the 5 man rotation out of ST should be solid to potentially very (and better than last year). A big key, to me, is the back up plan (say the 6th and 7th starter).
In my scenerio, you have Humber on the farm (or in the pen) much more ready, and Hernandez in the Pen able to take an emergency start. No more parks or Lawrences.
And maybe some of the AAA (Vargas?) are actually more prepared
Are you done?
Maine & Perez are still green. They still have moments where they over analyze and get off the game plan. Adding Pelfrey is adding an even greener piece to the puzzle
Pedro is Pedro? God love him, he might come back and throw 200 innings, or he could show signs of age and have a couple short stints on the DL. I hope for the former, but you really need to plan for the latter.
I really feel the need to get two guys who have thrown 200 IP over a few seasons to make the rotation gel. A rested bullpen will carry this team through the last 60 games. A repeat of 2007 is inevitable if your starters consistently come up short. It really doesn’t matter who you add to the pen if they are overworked by the trade deadline.
I would rather not take a chance on Harden, unless the price is really low. The guy is nasty but never healthy. Someone made a comparison to AJ Burnett, that was perfect.
What I don’t understand is why some Met fans are giving up on Humber already? He’s very young, under 300 professional innings, has barely pitched for the Mets and is coming off TJ surgery (i think it was TJ surgery at least). Give Humber time. At least until spring 2009 before you decide to give up on him.
Humber can be a perfect fit in the rotation if he’s healthy. He brings such a profoundly different look to the Met pitching staff. Who’s the last curveball pitcher the Mets had that had a significant role? Hampton? I can’t think of one over the past 7 or 8 years. The Mets tend to focus on cutter/slider/sinker type pitchers. Humber is a guy that relies on his curveball as his #1 pitch.
Just thinking through the years.
Leiter, cutter
Reed, Trachsel control pitchers
Duque, Pedro total magicians can throw any pitch anywhere in any count
Wagner, Benitez, Sanchez fastball/slider pitchers
Glavine, Franco junkballer/changeup
Sosa, OP, Wendell, Feliciano Slider
Smith, Bradford sidearmers
Heilman, Mota fastball/changeup
Maine high/low fastball
I just think it would be nice to start bringing along different types of pitchers. I think a big part of the problems the Mets have with the bullpen is that all their pitchers are roughly the same. I know a big part of that is Peterson’s overall pitching philosophy but I think if you could show your opponent different types of pitchers, instead of rolling out guys with essentially the same assortment of pitches, you can have a much more effective pitching staff.
Humber or one or two stretches (perhaps of the Mulvey/Carp variety) and I’ll do it for Harden or perhaps Dan Haren
Not a drop more. If Bean does not like it, tough. He can fleece someone else.
why would the A’s trade Haren? he’s a likely Cy Young winner in the AL this year
Dan Haren was an ace this past year; that’s true. So I guess you should accept a higher price for him.
This has been his best year by a considerable margin. Long-haul, I see him as similar to Maine, but slightly better because of his splitter and his superior endurance. (This is basically what he has been for his entire career).
The more I think about it why not try this. Sign Silva and Livan. That’s 400 innings in the middle of the rotation. They are not aces but they are above league average for a #4 and 5. Then Milledge can stay. Trade for some BP help (Pittsburg or Washington) resign Castillo and your done. A rotation of
Pedro Maine Perez Silva Livan could easily give us a top rotation and dramatically help our BP.
I want a dominant pitcher as well but not at Santana’s cost in a trade or the risk of Harden. Just be patient, see how Pelfrey and Humber do in the minors and if Perez and Maine continue to improve.
Not an awful plan. Silva is intriguing, he used to be a hot phillie prospect a few years ago, and Livan could be pretty effective in a park like Shea (big OF).
Maybe a move to the NL can help Silva improve his shaky #s?
How about taking a flier on a free agent like Matt Clement or Wade Miller or evn Matk Prior? I know they are ALWAYS hurt but they always were effective on the rare occasion they were healthy.
Good thought.
Anyone know if we are resigning Sosa as a reliever or if he will seek a starting role somewhere?
i agree, instead of giving up prospects for blanton why not just sign silva, it just costs money. theyre both very similar, he threw 202 innings, he doesnt strike out a lot of guys but he doesnt walk alot of guys either. His era would probably come down to about 3.8 or 3.9 moving out of minnesota to th NL.
Wow. Didn’t know you could just lump those Ps together, and classify them. You do know that at least 75%of all Ps rely on their fastball right?
I agree diversity on a pitching staff is essential, but it’s not that easy. Just because you can throw 99mph, doesn’t mean you are not gonna get hit. Young Ps try to throw it past you, experienced Ps make you hit their pitch.
For example, Kyle Farnsworth. Throws 97 consistant. Nobody wants him because it’s absolutely straight. You time it, you hit it. It’s all about location and movement. (and for some, a “kind” ump)
Must be talking about Glavine huh? Tom is a professional and I wouldn’t bash him, but the guy f’d us for how many years?
He f’d us when he was a Brave by getting a foot off the plate either way. He continued to f us when he came here because of Questec. Tom, you were a great pitcher, but good riddance.
GuruMets,
I totally understand that about Farnsworth. And believe me, I still give my janko fan friends crap about wasting all that money on Farnsworth. It actually makes me chuckle a little when I think back to when I heard about the signing.
Anyway, my point was that Humber seems to be a curveball specialist, it’s something the Mets don’t really have so why give up on him already? He hasn’t even had a chance to prove himself yet (under 300 pro innings).
Lastly, I understand that virtually all pitchers are FB/something types, I mean that’s pitching. But still, the Mets have really only developed and aquired guys that do not feature a curveball as anything more than a crappy 3rd or 4th pitch.
El Duque is more of a curveball pitcher than Humber. When I watched Humber pitch I saw that he had a decent curve, yes only decent. He can’t get it down enough in the zone and it doesn’t have enough to break to get there by itself, and even if he could it still is his 2nd or 3rd pitch just like everyone else. The only kind of pitcher who doesn’t have some sort of fastball [4-seam, 2-seam, cut, sinker] as their number one pitch is a knuckleball pitcher, so maybe we should go in that direction if you wan’t something different.
Someone suggested yesterday that the Mets should look at a package with the Pirates for Ian Snell/Ronnie Paulino – whom I feel the Mets will pursue for their catcher next year. The Pirates have shopped Snell before, and if I were the Mets I would strongly consider making a package of Gomez/Pelfry/Gotay for two young, cheap players with loads of talent and have already had some – albeit small – success in the Major Leagues. Snell and Paulino might not be the sexy name that is Harden or Santana or Willis, but I do think it would be a smart move.
Not a sexy move, but one that should be considered. I really don’t know why the Pirates would move Snell, but if he’s available… hey think they’d move Nady as well? As long as it doesn’t cost 2 of those mentioned, it’d be worth it. I’d rather keep Gotay than Gomez, as he could play 2B. Gomez seems like Endy circa Expos. More of a pinch-runner, 5th OF kind of player. If he develops into Endy, that’s fine because that will be in 5-6 years from now.
I love the idea of the Mets trading for Paulino. He’s a much better hitter then his stats indicate. I know it was stated in the press this summer that the Mets are planning a winter trade for Paulino as their catcher.
Guys, I’ve done a bit of scouting on possible Japanese players worth considering. The 33 year old, left handed closer from the Chunichi Dragons, Hitoki Iwase may be a viable option for the pen next year. He also is a free agent on his own terms, which means the Mets would not need to go through a posting process. He holds the Japanese record for most saves in a single season with 46 and his slider and fastball have been compared to Akinori Otsuka’s. He enters next year with a career earned run average of just 1.97 in Japan, and during 2007 he had only 9 walks in 59 innings of work. Not to mention, 3 of those 9 came from intentional passes too. He supposedly kept a close eye on how Hideki Okajima would fare in the MLB as well, because him and Okajima share a similar delivery.
If you would like to take a look for yourself, I have found this video of him pitching an inning in Japan:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKnWxXxFzkI&NR=1
Kind of funny how a year after Trachsel gets run out of town for his bad start in the playoffs, the majority of the Mets fanbase is happily suggesting high-ERA, workhorse type pitchers of the Trachsel variety. Sure, both Silva and Livan Hernandez, the most commonly suggested solutions, had more innings than Trachsel the last two years, but in some instances had higher ERAs… and Steve’s last year with the Mets was his first after missing almost an entire season with injury and he still logged about 165 innings, if I remember, 15 wins and a high 4.00s ERA. I’m not going to get on some high horse and say Steve was the answer to all our problems, but I think its safe to say that his veteran presence, his ability to go deep into games and his occasional brilliant games would have made a huge difference for the Mets last year… I always thought that letting him go, particularly at that point in time for the franchise, was a stupid decision… it sounds from a lot of these pitcher suggestions that I’m hearing that a lot of people agree with me.
Silva would be a great option here for the following reasons. More innings than Trachsel and less walks. His ERA would come down alot moving to the NL and Shea. He is a groundball pitcher playing on turf which hurts his numbers. Then obviously the transistion to the NL should bring down the ERA as well and he is 28, just going into his prime years and getting better if anything. He would probably come out with around 13 wins and an ERA of 3.8 or so if he pitched for the Mets, similar to what Blanton would achieve except Silva is in better shape, again the moving to natural grass would change his numbers alot and he would only cost money, and a set amount at that. Blanton would be going into arbitration soon.
I’d say Silva would be an OK addition, but as nothing more than a #4 guy. I know the recent emphasis is to acquire and innings eater, but we all have to admit, Pedro is a strong #2 now, not an ace. If we could find another solid #2 then we could make it work, but going after lower-rotation pitchers is just putting us back where we were last year. Too many #3 type pitchers. While I would love to see Maine elevate his game to a #1 level, don’t think that’s going to happen next year. Same with Perez, if he can harness that noggin of his, he could be a solid #2.
BTW, does everybody hate the Fox broadcast crew like I do? Friggin Buck and McCarver are awful. The only one who is worse is Joe Morgan. And Buck never shuts the f**k up! It’s no longer safe to listen to anything on TV unless it’s the SNY crew, and even Keith has his wtf moments…
[...] deciphered from a recent Oakland A’s Mailbag that Rich Harden would be traded before Danny Haren or Joe Blanton. However, after reading the A’s Mailbag, it appears to me that trading Harden is the opinion [...]
shush
Stop… just stop.
Harden doesn’t need to be “fixed” he just needs to stay healthy. He is the young power arm the mets need…and I think Gomez + Pelfrey would be a steal for us, if he stays healthy. Get off the Santana thing…he’s not going to be a Met…unless we trade Reyes or Wright (which isn’t happening)
Get real
Ssssh. If we don’t say anything, maybe it’ll go away. Trolls are silly like that.
***”…in San Diego DIDN’T”…
LMFAO