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In a column for Minnesota’s Free Press, Twins reporter Edward Thoma does his best Nostradamus impersonation, predicting how the Twins will act 
during this coming off-season.
Among other predictions, Thoma writes…
“Carlos Silva will get a four-year contract for at least $40 million. That deal will not come from the Twins. If the contract comes from a National League team in a pitcher’s park – San Francisco, San Diego, the Mets, Los Angeles – Silva will make that team’s general manager look smart. Otherwise, not so much.”
…silva is interesting…he’s this off-season’s version of the Gil Meche-level of starting pitchers, which we obsessed about during last off season…the concern surrounding silva is that he borders on allowing a home run at least once per start…nevertheless, the sense i get is that people see him like meche, i.e. a guy who is on the verge of getting it right, and that a four-year, $40 million deal could seem like a bargain in a few years…
In 259 career appearances, spanning six seasons, including 125 starts, the 28–year-old Silva is 55–46 with a 4.31 ERA, during which he has struck out two batters for every one he walked, while opponents are hitting .300 against him.
Lastly, Thoma writes…
“The Twins will trade a young pitcher – most likely Boof Bonser or Kevin Slowey – for a center fielder. Slowey should be the more valuable trading chip. Most likely trading partners: Mets, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Arizona.”
…mets…for whom, Lastings Milledge or Carlos Gomez…i mean, would they even want gomez right now…odd…
Slowey entered last season ranked third among Minnesota’s strong pitching prospects by Baseball America.
According to BA’s report…
“If he learns to use his secondary pitches effectively, his command could make him a frontline starter.”
In 11 starts for the Twins this season, the 23–year-old Slowey was 4–1 with a 4.60 ERA during his first-ever stint in the major leagues.
…as for bonser, he may be good, who knows, but i will never be able to take a person seriously who goes by the name boof – mostly because it makes me think of Teen Wolf…
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$40 million for Carlos Silva? Jeez.
Pelfrey and Humber really had better justify those #1 draft selections.
like all 1st round draft choices become #1 starters…
Both made it though our system with potential to be viable major league starters…
Hopefully one pans out to be a very good pitcher, but the fact that they made it here relatively quickly, while showing ability to be a good starter should be enough to justify the 1st round pick.
To be honest, I would probably trade Gomez for Slowey right now…we need a terrific young pitcher, and that is what Slowey looks like, I’ve actually seen him pitch…and since the Mets have an abundance of outfielders, I think I would trade Gomez for Slowey
Is it just me or does Slowey’s description sound just like Pelfrey? One good pitch, with mediocre secondary stuff.
If we’re going to trade a young outfield player/prospect like Milledge/Gomez I would hope we could get equal value in terms of a young middle infielder.
I’ve heard Barfield being bandied about. I think a Barfield for Gomez deal makes a ton of sense, though I’d want to know more about what happened to him in Cleveland this year.
I like SIlva. Sign him for 4/40.
Milledge for Bonser or Slowey? Pass.
Gomez for Bonser? No.
Gomez for Slowey? sure, we’ll be stocked at AAA
What does New Orleans’ outfield look like next year?
And I would try to sign Silva…from what I’ve seen from him, when right, he is a ground ball machine…I’m thinking at Shea Stadium, in the National League, and with Rick Peterson, Silva could turn out to be a 4 year, $40 million steal for the Mets
And he doesn’t walk anybody, which is a big plus
Silva doesn’t walk anybody, but he doesn’t strike out anybody and allows a buttload of hits and home runs. He had 1 good year and then got injured. He’s a pitcher than will guarantee you a 4+ ERA every year.
Great! He sounds like a 28 year old Steve Trachsel! Give him 4 years for $10 million a year!
Milledge for Slowey. Slowey’s got some pretty good speed and command, and hopefully he can master his off speed pitches with Peterson.
The guy is 23! He’s gonna be cheap and a great investment for the future.. Not to mention simplifying the corner outfield situation.
I’d like to think Milledge has more value than this. Slowey is the third best pitcher in their system and from the description, has one good pitch and not much else. Would you trade Milledge for Pelfrey because that’s pretty much what it sounds like to me.
THIRD BEST TO MATT GARZA AND FRANCISCO LIRIANO!!!!!
The Twins have a stock of young arms similar to that of the Devil Rays with young hitters.
And yes, I would trade Milledge for Pelfrey in a second.
Liriano is definitely not in their system. He is injured, he still pitched in the majors for an extended period of time, he isn’t a rookie anymore.
I actually forgot that it isn’t liriano, but another top prospect in Glen Perkins.
One teams trash can be another’s treasure.
Look at Slowey’s AAA numbers and tell me you wouldn’t take him for Milledge in a second.
$10 million a year for Carlos Silva? Wow. Yeah, he is a decent pitcher, though he can’t strike anyone out to save his life – unlike Meche, who has a good strikeout rate. He probably could get that in the open market, but it tells you a lot about the market that a guy like Silva could actually demand that amount.
Again, wow.
no thanks on a BAA of .300 –too bobby jonesish for me.
Matt,
Am I wrong, or have you soured quite a bit on Gomez?
The kid is not even 22 yet. I still believe he has a lot of potential and have a hard time believing he doesn’t have quite a bit of trade value.
Lastly, what say we freshen things up and have these writers do Edgar Cayce impressions for awhile. :-)
i know he is young but he almost never hits the ball hard. good hitters make hard contact. their outs even look good sometime. gomez, on the other hand, gets ugly hits.
Andruw Jones was in the majors at age 19, enough said. 22 is young but it isn’t young enough. We can’t have him major league ready at 25. He still needs time to adjust which will take around 3 years. We don’t need players just getting the hang of the majors when they are 28. Beltran is what 29? He has been a consistent producer for a good 5 or 6 years already.
Silva is horrible. If you want to scatter 10 hits over 5 innings, he’s your man. To mention him in the same breath as Meche is an insult to Meche. If you want another Trachsel, sure sign Silva. I’ll puke if the Mets were to sign Silva. Let him go to the Phillies so he can team up w/ Adam Eaton and they can have a combined ERA over 10.
Let us think for a moment, are you capable of that? He has an average ERA yes, in the AL, in a hitters park and he is a groundball pitcher and his homefield is turf. Every one of those factors could easily bring his ERA down .5 making him an extremely good pitcher. Pull your head out of your ass.
Have you ever actually watched the guy pitch? He’s horrible. What purpose would he serve on the Mets? We need a top of the line starter not another 4 or 5 starter which we’re already loaded with. You can sign Silva on your team juunit and I’m positive your team would suck. When teams give 40 mil to a guy hitters hit .300 off of, something’s wrong. Let another team make that mistake, not the Mets.
i dont see silva to the mets because look at who the organization has targeted for SP: almost always the fly ball type. Shea and Citi are pitchers parks that knock down fly balls and management has tried hard to utilize that strength. silva is a good pitcher, but hes a sinker baller/ground ball pitcher, which would mean he wouldnt be using shea’s greatest strength.
Silva fills the need for an inning eater, without sacrficing talent. If you can get Slowey for Gomez and another lesser chip, it is more ammo for getting Haren or Blanton.
Wouldn’t the A’s want an outfielder for Haren or Blanton? How would trading Gomez and getting a young pitcher help with that?
On the other hand- If we somehow keep Pelfry and Humber this offseason and get Slowey, throw in Vargas (maybe) and we have a nice little collection of potential. Someones gotta pan out right?. Right???
Ugh. You said the V-word.
Forget about Vargas. Humber’s career with the Mets could rely on this year. In my opinion, this is going to be a great year for Pelfrey. Plus Mulvey, hopefully Slowey, Perez and Maine.
I actually think that if the Mets were to get Slowey, and Pelfrey and Mulvey pan out as supposed to Humber may become a bullpen man, much like Heilman.
Sorry about the V-word…I can’t help but hope something works out from that deal….
Supposing they did get Slowey (and I know nothing about him) but just knowing what I do about the mets farm and the Twins farm- I’d bet on Slowey working out over Pelfrey.
how often does throwing 4 years/$40m at a mediocre starter work?
i’d prefer if omar uses the mets budget (approx. $110-$115m) to sign or trade for good or superior pitching/players. there will be a lot of top level pitchers available in 2009. use that $10m per toward one of them.
i don’t really want glavine back, but i’s prefer 1 year at $10-13m for glavine over 4 years for silva.
I have mixed feelings about Glavine
He’s not worth the money or rotation spot, but he gave us 200 innings and was solid for most of the season, but between the money, the full time rotation spot and his September performance discourages me.
F Glavine.
I dont think he’d even want to come back. And i doubt Omar wants him back.
Silva is NO Trachsel ! He works fast and throws
strikes. He pitches to contact BUT doesn’t allow
many HRs. He IS one of the best control Pitchers
in Baseball AND a couple of years ago threw a complete game shutout w/ only 67 pitches.
Tracks is just painful to watch both as a fan and I’m
sure as a teammate.
It is CRAZY but 4/40mil sounds about right in this day
and age for a 4th starter but Hey, options ARE limited.
I’d like to see us sign him AND I think you’ll see
numbers like 33 GS/ 13-10 / 4 ERA BUT most
important 220 IP.
We’d still be playing if a another starter gave us 200+innings this season.
P.S. Everyone calm down w/ Mulvey !
Saw him pitch twice this season in person.
His stuff is NOT electric AND He really reminded me of Bobby Jones. Solid NOT Great ! Best case 4th
starter.—ALSO—Fernando Martinez, If ever is atleast
3/3 1/2 seasons away! He was overmatched @ AA
in the 5 games I saw. He does look to have a quick
bat BUT he’s not real fleet afoot AND didn’t show
any real power. BUT he is REAL young.
Mike Carp is not going to be an everyday MLBer,
in fact I don’t think there was a live position prospect
on the B-Mets roster whos not years away
220 innings from silva? you expect him to do something he has never done. it seems that 185-200 inning is more reasonable from silva. even though nl line-ups are weaker, starters are often taken out earlier b/c managers pinch-hit for the pitcher.
13-10 4era is a reasonable guess though. 4 years is too long for an okay pitcher.
A. Not only does Carlos Silva average around 1 home run per start, he allowed 35 in 2006. I hope you haven’t forgotten his 5.94 ERA in that year.
B. Fernando MArtinez was an 18 year old in AA, of course he was overmatched.
C. What games did you see Mulvey pitching in? He throws 91-93 with the ability to keep the ball down, has 4 good pitches to work with and last time I checked, in every league he has been in they haven’t hit him well. He’s going to be a AAA starter at age 22.
Averaging Silva’s total career #s, he pitches 167.1 innings, goes 9-8, has a 4.31 ERA, has a WHIP of 1.36, and strikes out 69.
Averaging Trach’s career #s: he pitches 203.1 Innings, goes 11-12, has a 4.32 ERA, has a WHIP of 1.40, and strikes out 130
I actually think that Trachsel wins!!!!
Alright 200 IP, I thought it was 220 in “04 but i was
wrong it was 213 incl. post-season.
I think this type of guy as Insurance to Pedro,Duque,
Pelphrey and Humber would be a great help.
We can only count on/ hope on Maine and Perez
in the ‘08 rotation and for the sake of the PEN CAN”T
have any Limas,Solers,Gonzalezs,Lawrances or Seles starting ANY games next year.
If you sign a Silva or even LIvan to center the staff and
eat (mostly) quality innings, you CAN have Maine and
Perez on one side and a combo of Pedro/Duque—
Pelphrey/Humber on the other side w/some depth
pending of course what else Omar can do om a larger scale.
Know what I’m Sayin’
Right, you put Silva as the #3 between Perez & Main and Pedro & El Duque and hope that he gets the bullpen a break.
F Glavine
Slowney sounds pretty much like Pelfrey at this point. Yeah he seems to have potential, and could be more useful than GOmez this year, but that might be going just a bit heavy on the young guys still looking to put it together.
Of all the young guys, Gomez I think is the one real diamond.
This kid should have AND would have played the entire
season down AAA if not for all the OF injuries.
He’s just a kid and may never hit .300 BUT in a couple years
will hit 20/25 HRs, steal 50/60 bases and is already a real-
good OFer w/ a Cannon of an arm. I could see him easily as
a Mike Cameron w/ a better arm.
Moving Millage still scares as he could be a star BUT there
are questions.
Pelphrey IS NOT impressive And doesn’t have Papelbon or
Chamberlin stuff but who knows what he might be if he ever
learns how to pitch.
It’s looking more and more like Humber was a first-round
mistake. there were plenty of already ther MLBers taken
after him 3 years ago and frankly if hes not ready this
spring after an entire year @AAA when will he be?
trading an OF prospect for a SP prospect is one thing.
carlos silva has been a mediocre pitcher — at best. there is no reason to sign a guy like that and be forced to put him in the rotation because of the contract he gets. all that does is take a spot in the rotation away from a young pitcher that is deserving of a shot.
what young pitcher is” deserving” of a spot along side
Pedro, Duque,Maine and Perez ?
Pelphrey? Humber? based on what? track record?Stuff?
The trick about getting a guy like Silva for 4 years is that we don’t know if Citi is going to be a pitchers park the way Shea is. Its dimensions are big, but will the back wall being closed affect the winds and fog that have hampered batters at Shea for years?
I don’t think Rick Peterson is the genius he claims to be, but Carlos Silva is a guy I think he could make better. The $10 mil per year is the money you save by Glavine leaving and Silva will likely be a 7 inning pitcher in the NL. Worth a shot.
talent. stuff. youth.
if there needs to be another project in the rotation then id rather it be from one of the guys in the organization — or a guy brought over in a trade like slowey or boof.
but signing a carlos silva and hoping he is a diamond in the rough (at $10 mil per) is just not worth it to me. and if the mets dont think any of these guys are ready for the rotation this year then id rather bring back tom glavine for that same $$ for just one year and know what im getting than be locked into silva for multiple years and hope he pans out.
aaron heilman is another guy id rather see get a shot in the rotation than to bring in a free agent like silva.
Heilman had a whole lot of shots. The only guy who has had more is that guy who lives in the bar.
God Please–No More Glavine! —Heilmann IS the 8th Inning
guy and will be unless traded. He’s not going to be returned
to the rotation whether HE likes it or not.
Not to mke this guy out to be more than he is BUT again,
an innings eater who can/will win 12-14 games IS just what
this teams needs! You hope Maine and Perez repeat, Pedro
is even 2/3S Pedro think 30GS/ 200IP/15Wins/3.5 ERA AND
slot a Silva or a Livan into the next spot THEN you can have
a Duque,Pelphrey,Humber and maybe Mulvey in the 5th and 6th
spots and not have to worry about : A) The Brian Lawrances of
the word AND B) blowing out Wagner, Heilmann and Feliciano
again.
I saw Slowey pitch a few times for AAA Rochester and was very impressed. Reminded me a little of John Maine.
Looked to have more control and composure than Pelfrey has.
I would take him as a 4 or 5 starter in a minute.
Then it’s a deal. Gomez plus Carp for Slowey.
Next, sign A-Rod, DW to first.
I’d trade Milledge, not Gomez. Gomez seems to unique to pass up on.
Signing A-Rod is a stretch. I doubt Minaya will want to do something that drastic.
Moving Wright to first is also a strech. That’s a whole lot of money down the drain spent in giving A-Rod years and $ until he’s 43 and Delgado for another while.
You dont trade gomez for anything other then a #1or2 SP
and A-Rods not coming back to NY. He wants NO part of
the “pressure”! Plus is Omar gonna sink a quarter of the
teams payroll into ANY one player? Plus,Plus, are we gonna
start again w/ this moving players from their natural positions?
Look, A-Rod IS who he is , Great track numbers REAL small
in big spots! His contracts make it impossible to surround him
w/ a balanced team. See Texas, the anskeeys and soon the
giants,dodgers or angels.