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…well, here we go, folks…buckle up…
According to the Daily News, the Mets will meet with super-agent Scott Boras, who represents Alex Rodriguez, before the end of this week’s GM Meetings in Orlando.
In a recent report for SI.com, Jon Heyman leads a long column by writing…
“The Mets are rising from long-shot status in the Alex Rodriguez sweepstakes, and a lot of folks around baseball are saying they expect the team from Queens to make a significant run at the superstar free agent.”
According to Heyman, though Omar Minaya has yet to recommend signing Rodriguez to ownership, eventually he will, while using a ‘walkaway number,’ so to not get bogged down in a bidding war.
A high-ranking Mets executive, as quoted by Heyman…
“We’ve got to go for this guy.”
Heyman continues on to list nine reasons why a marriage between the Mets and Rodriguez will make perfect sense, such as, “The Mets already have done significant polling of fans to gauge their reaction to an A-Rod signing. They don’t do that just for kicks.”
According to a MetsBlog.com poll from last week, of more than 3,600 people, 46 percent of those polled wanted Rodriguez on the Mets, while 40 percent did not want him, leaving 14 percent undecided.
In a previous poll from late October, oddly enough, it was the other way around, meaning fans had changed their mind in less than one week, switching from not wanting A-Rod to wanting him.
…i will post the poll again later today to see where we’re all at…
Meanwhile, in today’s New York Post, Mark Hale explains why the feeling among executives in Orlando is that it wouldn’t be sensible to move David Wright, in favor of A-Rod.
An MLB team official, as quoted by Hale…
“Depending on David Wright’s true desire to move, I kind of wouldn’t mess with him.”
…that’s up to wright, though, i guess…the thing is, from what i can gather, whomever needs to be moved would like to know sooner than later, so the person can begin preparing now…it’s a lot to ask of a player to pick up a new position, on the other side of the infield, in the span of a few weeks in March, especially if the team intends to win a World Series…the problem, though, is that nobody expects a-rod to sign before the new year…
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Well, count me in… Lets get em! I dont want another boring offseason with hopes and expectations that dont bear any fruit in the end which makes me very pessimistic about the Mets signing A-Rod, but I’m putting my chips in this year hoping this doesnt turn into another Zito.
Yeah, I don’t want the big spash to be Silva and a .230-hitting catcher.
I know. Sound planning for the future is so booooring. It’s much more fun to get all the sexy free agents that are out there, without regard for prudence.
What could possibly be a better plan for the future than adding the best player in the game, statistically, to your team?
Exactly. And, A-Rod grew up a Mets fan. What a story.
By the way, the more likely it is that A-Rod comes to the Mets, the more Mets fans will support it.
When and if they announce the signing, 80% of Mets fans will be thrilled.
You mean overpaying drastically for a player who wants to make half again as much as players who are not far behind in production playing a position we don’t need and moving David Wright at risk of hurting his production, or hurting himself playing a dangerous position in which he is inexperienced and tying up their payroll with said player at the expense of getting what they need like pitching. Yeah, what could be better for the future?
Again, if you can get ARod at a reasonable price ($22M/yr for 5 years) and put ARod at 2nd, you have to do it. Otherwise, he will kill your team in the long run.
Please, Arod grew up a fan of money, not a fan of the Mets. If was really his lifelong dream to play for the Mets he had his chance and he blew it.
Having 1/4 of your payroll locked up in a 37-42 year old is hardly the best plan for the future. Arod might be the best player in the game, but if he makes over $30 million, he’s absolutely not the best player in the game per dollar earned. HUGE MISTAKE.
Just stop. The Mets can afford Arod AND other good players.
This is not Pittsburgh. The Mets are #3 in overall revenues.
They should use their hammer for once.
Oh great. . Let them become just like the Yankees. Spending gazilions extra for marginal returns. Hated around the leagues and mocked for buying titles. And paying through the nose every year in luxury taxes.
Hated around the league with 3 WS Trophies in 5 years?
Yeah…I’m okay with that.
If it was just being hated around the league, I ‘m okay with that too. The problem is that it’s that plus a whole lotta of other negatives.
Can someone wake me up after Thanksgiving when this is resolved?
its scott boras we could wake you up on new years and still be at the same point we’re at now.
No to AROD. The only reason to go after him would be to move Wright or Reyes to a different position. Reyes is gold glove at SS and it would be silly to move him again to 2b in favor of AROD who is slower and has less range. Moving Wright to 2b is dangerous and I think somewhat silly as the guy is a terrific at fielding his position at third. I will say however that if he made the move to 2b and he kept up his offensive production at the same level he is right now for 10 years….he would be guaranteed to go the hall of fame.
However, I will continue to advocate that pitching is what is needed not hitting for our team. Please find the gem of a deal that gets us quality pitching not quality hitters. There is no denying the greatness that AROD;s regular seasons have produced. There is a question clearly about the effect of his presence on the team. Clealy he is labeled as a guy who just by having the contract he has changes the clubhouse dynamic. But he can hit and field.
It comes down to what do the METS need. If there where a glaring hole at 3b or SS, he’d make sense. But there is not.
No. You’re wrong.
Reyes has not won a gold glove. Not one.
A-Rod, on the other hand, has won two. At shortstop.
A-Rod is not slow, nor does he have sub-par range.
And he will be considered for the 2007 AL Gold Glove at third.
Are you just making things up now?
It seems clear to me that A-Rod needs to go to the West Coast AND he and Boras are absolutely desperate to keep (use) the Mets in this in order to get their $300 mil number from the west coast. From A-Rod’s perspective I can’t see why he’d stay here and be subjected to the scrutiny. We all know the booing will not end when he comes to the Mets.
That said, for the Mets ever to consider such an acquisiation:
1) I need Wright (or Reyes) to be 110% on board with any position change and have a level of confidence he can handle it.
2) I need a significant level of confidence that A-Rods name will not appear in the Mitchell Report….what a PR disaster and embarrasment that would be here in NY and nationwide,
3) and the obvious, we cannot allow this contract to handcuff our future acquistion of pitching…today and 8 yrs from now.
Heyman is obviously practicing advocacy journalism. While the Mets may indeed make an offer for A-Rod, there is nothing in that article that says they will. And even if they do, I’ll be shocked if it’s 1) for close to $30 million a year and 2) anything over 6 years.
I still don’t want this egotistical player on the Mets. As Kim Jones said on the FAN this morning, he sucks the life out of the room whenever he’s in the clubhouse. And that’s when he’s already on a team full of millionaire superstars!
And say goodbye to Santana if they pay A-Rod anything close to what he wants.
I want NO part of A-Rod. He is horrible for a clubhouse and the Mets aren’t exactly the strongest clubhouse in the MLB anymore. With his contract, we won’t be able to afford any real pitchers. I don’t know if he can play SS anymore, I can’t picture D-Wright at 2B, even for 1 season. And A-Rod is a walking jinx. So what if he gets us into the playoffs, he shrivels in the spotlight and on the Mets, the entire spotlight would be on him in October. Go get some arms and let A-Rod go to the west coast. Maybe Torre can bat him eighth for the Dodgers.
Wow, we agree 1000%!
Of course you are absolutely correct on all your points! :smile:
You can’t be 1000% correct on all your points when they are 1000% speculation.
Carver, your anti-Arod stance is no less speculative than the stance for getting him. That doesn’t make your stance correct, just different.
Can you even read, CW? I said I was in agreement 1000%.
And you’re just wrong. There is not all speculation in the post I replied to. It’s a fact that the Mets clubhouse wan’t that strong this year. It was widely reported on.
And it’s not pure speculation to say that with his salary it’s very questionable whether they can afford Santana and stay under the luxury tax. It’s match.
And it’s not speculation that he’s shriveled int he spotlight in the postseason.
I wold say your side is much more speculative than those who don’t want A-Rod on the team.
That should read “It’s math.”
If spotlight shriveling and clubhouse strength were meaningful gauges of a player’s value, there would be statistics for them. But there aren’t. Because they are meaningless abstracts that have very little to do with actual baseball performance.
that’s right — the only things that have to do with “actual baseball performance” have statistics for them… not quite.
No Carver, I can’t read. Can you?
I could have cared less if you agreed 1000%. I asked how his points could have been 1000% correct when they are pure speculation, which they are.
Your whole argument against A-Rod is based on two things that you cannot possibly know anything about.
1) You are worried about what it is you think that the Mets can and can’t afford. You have no more clue as to what it is that the Mets want to spend than I do. All we can know is that if the Mets decide that they can’t afford A-Rod, then he won’t be here. They obviously are not worried that signing him takes them out of the running for other players, why in God’s name would you be?
2) Unless you are about to treat us to a big story right here on MetsBlog, you are not a player and have never been in the Met clubhouse.(Or the Mariners’, Rangers’, or Yankees’). How could you possibly know that A-Rod is bad for team chemistry? Outside of the fact that he played around on his wife, (none of anyone’s business), yelled in that 3B’s ear, and likes money, you offer no real concrete reasons to not want the guy on the team.
Give me something solid and you’d convince me. I don’t believe that having A-Rod is going to mean that the New York Mets cannot afford another major FA player. I don’t believe that he is anywhere near as bad a guy as you are trying to make him out to be. And I also don’t think that your plan to pass on A-Rod, eat Mota’s contract to sign mediocre relief pitchers, and hope for the best on Santana in 2009 is going to bridge the gap between the Mets and the postseason in 2008. The gap is too big, and the pitching we would otherwise pursue is just not there.
CW: I never said his points were 1000% correct. Can’t you read? I said I agreed 1000% with his points. Which is different.
And no, they are NOT pure speculation. I gave examples where they were not and if you have anything that says otherwise, state it. Otherwise my points stand.
And no, once again you fail to comprehend what I wrote.
1) I am not worried what the Mets can or cannot afford. I am worried about what the Mets spending levels will be in the future if they get A-Rod, quality pitching , and quality players at other positions. They can’t do that and remain at or near the LT level. And they can give lip service all they want to their supposed emphasis on pitching but when they sign Mota and penny pinch Bradford I have my doubts. And it is not speculation. This year they were already extremely close to the LT threshold. That’s a fact. The mets historically have been loathe to exceed this level. Even Heyman mentioned this in his article. FACT, not speculation.
2) Because the Texas Rangers gave him a derogatory nickname and he’s had reported tensions with his teammates on the Yankees. And of course I offered concrete reasons for not wanting him — a humongous salary, too many years, bad clubhouse chemistry, poor postseason performance, poor sportsmanlike behavior on and off the field … I don’t think I need any more reasons other than those.
I don’t care if you’re convinced or not. If you’re a fanboy like Biggie, you’ll never be convinced. To fans like you, it’s okay to root just for laundry. Never mind that the player is greedy, narcissistic, unsportsmanlike, insincere, and vain. Sorry, but these things matter to me too (in addition to the economic reasons and his unclutchness). And only a blind person would call these things speculative.
Read Lennon’s piece. He reiterated what some of us have been saying. You fanboys are over-reacting and barking up the wrong tree. It’s a fact that it was more the pitching that was the team’s downfall this year and yet you want to waste resources on a faulty bat with voluminous baggage.
No thanks.
Santana won’t be the only ace availiable after the next season. Let the Yankees spend 220 million on Santana while the Mets sign C.C.
Fine with me. Just improve the pitching with quality hurlers. Spend the money there. Not on a flawed hitter with tons of baggage.
What baggage? His love of money? I have news for you…
and what will sabathia want if Santana get 220 mil?
there are pitchers to be had next year..and we’ll be in the market regardless of who we sign this year..
with Pedro more than likely retiring.. or taking a Schilling victory lap contract.. .. the $$ will be there..
why throw away 2008 for a pie in the sky?
CW: Do you really want me to recount all the personal issues A-Rod’s had the last few years? We’ve done that already in previous threads. Read them and get back to me if you still have questions.
Sabathia will want roughly what Santana goes for.
Being in the market for a pitcher isn’t the issue. Being able to purse one aggressively is. The Mets won’t be able to do so with Santana if they waste their $$ on A-Rod.
When Pedro retires, they not only need to pay for a replacement, but they need to pay Ollie and Maine as well. Neither will be as cheap as they are now. The $$ won’t be there.
Why piss away the future for an offensive player with tons of baggage?
When Pedro retires, they not only need to pay for a replacement, but they need to pay Ollie and Maine as well. Neither will be as cheap as they are now. The $$ won’t be there.
where do you get this from? Maine is a 3 year player..Ollie is a 5 year player..
.Maine isnt FA til 2011.. he’ll be comparatively cheap..
Pedro is an 11M pitcher in 2008 and comes off the books in 2009 — unless he signs for a discounted incentive laden Victory Lap like Schil did.. Delgado & Alou come off after 08… thats almost 20 MIl..
To say we wont have any money to spend in 09 is disingenuous.
Regardless.. if we spit the bit in 2008 no one will want our $$ unless we overpay..
Carver, please recount the baggage issues. I must have missed them. I am sure that they are nothing more than stupid things that you are blowing way out of proportion.
Baggage: Slap play. Fake play. His jealousy of Jeter and bashing his supposed friend publicly in a national magazine. His huge rep for saying what he doesn’t mean in every city he plays in. His vanity as expressed by his bi-racial and workout at 7 am comments. His rep as “the cooler” in TX. The outrageous perks he asked for in 2000. His ill-timed WS announcement. His agent bashing his a HOF teammate publicly on TV.
All these things have added up to give A-Rod one of the worst reps in baseball that I’ve ever seen. Everywhere he goes, he carries this baggage of poor unsportsmanlike behavior, insincerity, vanity and extreme greed with him.
If you think these are all stupid things, congratulations. You are as tone deaf as Boras and A-Rod. Maybe you should go work for his agency.
this is EXCELLENT news. mets mgmt appears SMART these days. as for “messing” with DW, SOMETHING has to be done about his throwing errors. also, he practices regularly at 2B, and he has already enthusiastically committed to moving for arod. dw is a TRUE team player.
Keep Wright at third, let Arod play first.
Just get rid of Delgado…A-Rod or no A-Rod.
I agree. A Rod has the size and is older, and would likely make a great 1B.
Moving Delgado and getting younger and more athletic at 1B will help also.
Wonder how many thrwoing erros Mex or Olerud would have saved DW from? At least A Rod is a big traget with a slick glove.
A-Rod is an excellent defensive player. I think either he or DWright could make the move to first, and either of them could benefit from it.
A-Rod is not the answer. Posada has quietly held that Yankee pitching staff together, and he would be the right fit for the Mets. Maybe the Mets can help drive up the price for A-Rod…to take teams out of the market for other free-agent players.
Let me get this straight. The best player in baseball is not the answer, but an aging catcher with a lifetime .277 batting average, a penchant for passed balls, and deteriorating defensive capabilities, is.
Seriously.
Where are the complaints about what THAT scheister wants in his next contract?
BRING ‘EM HOME OMAR!!
A-Rod has already proven that he can move positions without being affected at the plate. If he signs a 300-350 million deal with the knowledge that he is moving to first it should not be a problem.
Sign A-Rod for first, resign Castillo for 2nd, keep Reyes and Wrigt and then trade Delgado and Gomez to Texas for Saltamacchia to play catcher.
u know, that’s actually NOT a bad idea, the first NOT bad idea i heard in a while. You’d have to pay, i’d say, at LEAST 8 mil on Delgado’s contract, which i would in a heartbeat (probably 4 mil this year and the 4 mil buyout for next), and throw in a young pitcher cuz everyone knows Texas is always looking for pitching. BUt Salty would be a great fit. I don’t think Delgado is as bad as everyoe makes him out to be, and paying a nice chunk of his salary and throwing in 2 younger, mid level prospects would probably get it done. The only way i’d even CONSIDER adding A-Rod (which i’ve been adamant about NOT adding him) is if we can shed SOME payroll and add a few prospects by getting rid of Delgado and puttin Wright or A-Rod at first…
youd have to be insane to think texas will essentially trade saltalamacchia for carlos gomez and a “mid level prospect” pitcher. salty is a top flight prospect why would they trade top flight for mid level it makes absolutely no sense unless they believe in quantity over quality.
I agree about trying to get A-Rod to play first, but why in the world would Texas trade Salty for Delgado and Gomez?
Forget Saltalamacchia. Delgado, cash, and prospects to the Giants for Lincecum.
Do the Mets have to put a sign outside Shea that they are making a strong move for A ROD?
Heyman is AT THE MEETINGS>> HE’s talking to people and reporting.. thats what he does..
Clearly the front runner is now recognized..
After we land Arod - probably just after turkey day - we’ll deal with putting the chips together to land some pitching..
Instead of letting Boras drive the process, and effectively negotiating against themselves, why not have Omar take the initiative?
Formulate a stong offer, and give it to Boras as pretty much take it or leave it, with a time limit (either a fixed date, or until they make an alternative move?)
Spend the $$, but keep the term reasonable.
Say, 6 years/180 Million (30mm per). Maybe a couple of team, mutual or vesting options on top of that.
Normally you negotiate by starting low and giving room to work up, but Boras seems to be a master at turning that against you. Plus, he uses the other teams as a threat.
So, it takes a lot of his leverage away knowing that if he passes, he could lose the 2nd NY team too.
The key I guess is to make it a very strong (basically the best you are going to get final) offer. Just cut out the BS, since you know you are probably going to get to that anyway.
Kind of like a Buy it now! price on EBay.
If that happens, they get him locked up (hpefuly for 1B), and keep their draft pick, and best of all, still have all the trading chips. maybe they can then latch onto a young catcher via trade, bringing back Castillo won’t hurt, etc.
If they pull off A Rod, and sign Castillo (short term deal), they really just need to get a catcher (NOT POSADA!), and can spend the rest of the winter, and any trading chips, shoring up the pitching.
i agree omar cant let boras string him along for 4 months then slam the door in his face and the team is left with no significant upgrades as the time winds down on the offseason. the mets know their limit, just make your best offer and say here it is you want it or not, bc its not going any higher/longer. give him a deadline and move on. i as a fan would be happy with that bc then id know “we did our best and we kept the rest of the teams improvements in mind while doing so”.
Yeah, I’m with this plan. Big offer up front with negotiations only on potential option years.
I’d leave it up to the organization to work out who plays where defensively, but I wonder if ARod would be more attracted to the idea of First Base if he knew that his boyhood hero, Keith Hernandez, would be personally showing him the ropes.
Indeed, I would love to see the Mets use Mex and have him make a personal call to ARod to talk to him about becoming a Met, and the difference between being a Met and a Yankee. I think the idol worship, plus Mex’s great sense of humor would really help matters. Perhaps it’s already happening, but if we are making a push, using Mex given he’s under the Mets employ makes perfect sense to me.
SHEA ROD!
SHEA ROD!
SHEA ROD!
SHEA ROD!
I love how some bloggers write “He’s a cancer in the clubhouse” (which they have never set foot in), or that Posada “quietly holds the pitching staff together.”
What orifice are you guys pulling this out of?
A-Rod “sucks the life out of the room” whenever he’s in the clubhouse, said Kim Jones on the FAN this morning.
So it comes from the orifice of someone who has spent a lot of time around the Yankees this year.
Kim Jones is a Yankee shill..
pure sour grapes..
she would’ve blown A rod 6 months ago.
Kim Jones is hardly a Yankee shill. She never gets defensive about the Yankees like Kay or Waldman or Sterling. I don’t see it as sour grapes. She’d probably rather blow a cow than A-Rod.
everyone from the organization is poisoned by the the Steinbrenner gestapo’s kool aid
gee.. i wonder if she said something else whether she would continue as the locker room reporter?
Im sure the steinbrenners would gladly keep her on .. they sure LOVE impartial commentary on their Cabal..
Are you a YES employee as well?
that you defend and parrot these Yankee shills is just laughable.
What does “sucking the life out of the room” even mean? While “sucking the life out of the room” this year, Alex Rodriguez managed to contribute to his team’s success on a level surpassed only by Jeter ‘99, and Mantle ‘61 and ‘57. For other similar seasons in Yankee history you have to go back to the days of Ruth, Gehrig, and DiMaggio. Ruth sucked the life out of a hot dog stand. Mantle sucked the life out of a bottle of whiskey. But that didn’t seem to matter when it came down to the business of winning ballgames, which you do by putting the best players possible on the field.
She didn’t need to say anything at all. She’s not employed by the Yankees but I guess you don’t understand the distinctions.
Do you work for Boras?
From your school-girl gushing over a player with so much baggage, it certainly sounds like it.
Arod contributed so greatly to his team’s success this year because he team wasn’t successful. No one else thinks that its kinda strange that he had he best year when the Yankees had their worst? That’s what it means by sucking the life out of a room. When Arod succeeds, the team fails. The only thing that matters to Arod is Arod and Money.
“Sucking the life out of the room” means that everything in the clubhouse revolves around A-Rod. He’s like an elephant in the room. Because of his salary and expectations, everything that happens to him is magnified and he sucks out all the energy and attention that would normally be focused on the “team.” It’s all about A-Rod’s moods, his insecurities, his hangups.
That’s why the Rangers called him “the cooler.”
IM A METS FAN..
I Want the best player available on THE METS>. if A ROD wasnt Available id be looking for another way to get this team over the top…
Last year I .. like all other fans .. would booo Arod and call hiim GAY ROD>> ITS WANT FANS DO
but he’s available RIGHT NOW and helps this team get better in 2008 in a lot of ways..
I want Willie “Double Switch” Randolph to have the largest margin of error on offense to make up for his bumbling strategic moves..
I dont give a dam what his baggage is.. hes a monster in the lineup..
you offer no plan for 2008 other than replace a few bullpen arms and wait til 2009..
Hey, we’re all Mets fans here. We all want what we think is best for the team. I just happen to think A-Rod is BAD for the Mets in many respects.
I don’t care if you wanted to throw knives at A-Rod or blow him yourself this year. Just because he’s available at the moment does not make him a good option for now into the future.
He may be a monster in the lineup sometimes, but in the postseason he’s a minnie mouse.
Sure I offer a plan for 2008 and it includes saving resources when Santana and/or lots of other good pitchers will be available on the FA market. Save your resources for where it really counts.
You have to understand that some fans can think ahead.
Moods. Insecurities. Hang-ups. Sound like Reggie Jackson. Good thing the Mets never got him. They would have been even worse in the 70’s.
Reggie’s salary never took up 1/4 of the payroll.
He was never as unprofessional as A-Rod has been.
He never carried all that personal baggage that A-Rod carries with him to every team.
He also didn’t have 500 HR and 1500 RBI before the age of 32. I value those statistics a little higher than Baggage Quotient or Room-life Sucking Average. Hopefully, so does Omar.
“Wait til next year”
is what losers say
I’m all for building a solid base for years to come. The thing is, we already have that. Wright and Reyes. Signing A-Rod doesn’t send them out of town or inhibit our ability to re-sign them. It does allow us to keep guys like Milledge and Gomez, or trade them to other teams for other building blocks. I think it’s a better move for the future than trading for Santana, who will likely test the market anyway. I also believe on an open market Santana will go to the highest bidder, which WILL be the Yankees. So what it comes down to is either add the best player in baseball to your team now. Or lose prospects now AND the best pitcher in baseball later. I fail to see how the latter is “building for the future”.
Reggie had something that A-Rod will never have — a rep for being a difference maker in October. A rep for clutchness. That makes him more valuable than shrinking-violet-in-the-postseason.
I’m not advocating trading for Santana now unless they can get him for cheap. I believe when he’s a FA money will be a criteria but that he’s more thoughtful than A-Rod and so will choose based on other important factors. For this reason, I believe the Mets will have at least equal opportunity with every other moneyed team that pursues him. It won’t just come down to the Yankees and money.
And there will a wealth of other good pitchers available next year who the Mets should pursue. So even if Santana is gone, there will be others.
The choice is spend all your bullets now for a flawed player with lots of baggage … or save your resources for more important pitching.
That’s “building for the future” … not spending all your bullets now.
I believe when he’s a FA money will be a criteria but that he’s more thoughtful than A-Rod and so will choose based on other important factors.
like what??
by that time his best buddy Castillo will more than likely be a knee replacement candidate.. the mets collapsed historically in 2007 and - since they are relatively standing pat for 2008 in your plan — will most likely be an also ran in 2008.. thus making them the continued butt of every late night joke ..
So what “important factors” would sway Santana to come to the Mets for less money tahn he’d otehr wize get elsewhere?
And why would Fred and Omar give a pitcher who will be 30 when he throws his first pitch in 2009 a five year contract when they have a strict policy against this for pitchers?
Now we have NO Bullets but the cash in the coffers. With Arod we have additional “Bullets” in propsects and excess players on teh 24 man roster..
So we save everything.. come in at around 100 mil payroll iin 2008.. while the phils and braves and everyone else continues to improve.. and we sit home in October 2008 saying wait til next year>?
this is all such wishful thinking it borders on fantasy..
Its defeatist attitude that I hope doesnt represent the feelings of Mets management… by the posada talk.. as repulisive as it may seem .. I think the mets management sides with the (now) majority of mets fans in this forum.
I can’t believe for a second that you actually think individual postseason stats are a good way to judge a player’s overall value to a team. Barry Bonds, who otherwise contributed very little to his teams’ previous postseason performance, went 8 for 17 with 4 home runs in the ‘02 WS. Prior to that he had a label similar to A-Rod, postseason dud. Maybe I’m crazy but if I’m managing a team in the World Series, I’d rather have Bonds and A-Rod on my team than Bucky Dent and David Eckstein. It’s never a good idea to evaluate a player by the smallest possible sample size.
Also, spending money on A-Rod will not hamstring the Mets the same way it hamstrung the Rangers. While there may not be enough for both A-Rod and Santana, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t other pitchers out there that could solidify the staff. Long term, big money contracts for pitchers are always more of a gamble than they are for position players.
“And why would Fred and Omar give a pitcher who will be 30 when he throws his first pitch in 2009 a five year contract when they have a strict policy against this for pitchers?”
Since when do the Mets have a policy against signing pitchers that are 30 to five year deals? They didn’t want to go 5 years for pitchers in their mid 30’s like Pedro and Glavine, but they went four for them. Santana would be 35 when a 5 year contract ended - younger than Pedro was when we signed him. What are you talking about?
Someone else stated that Santana would go to the highest bidder, which would be the Yankees. While I agree he will go to the highest bidder, there is no reason this can’t be the Mets IF they don’t sign Arod. This is what we should be saving for.
Since when do the Mets have a policy against signing pitchers that are 30 to five year deals?
Do you recall the Barry Zito negotiations? and he was under 30.
would anyone dispute that singing a pitcher to contract of more than 5 years for their over 30 years is an incredibly high risk,,
ike what??
Like pitching in the NL. In a good pitchers park. And for a team that isn’t so uptight and corporate as Yankee teams of recent vintage have been. And for a team where he has some good friends.
And again, stop saying I’m advocating them standing pat. I am not. They need to fix the bullpen and they can if they allocate the resources to doing so. Which means eating Mota’s contract.
And who says the Mets will necessarily be outbid? If they sign A-Rod they probably will be. By a lot. But if they don’t wast their resources on A-Rod, they can bid aggressively.
And why would Fred and Omar give a pitcher who will be 30 when he throws his first pitch in 2009 a five year contract when they have a strict policy against this for pitchers?
Huh? They offered 5 to Zito. And he’s not even as good as Santana. Stop writing fiction!
And how does A-Rod give the Mets extra bullets?
And who said the payroll will be 100 million?
And who said the Phils and Braves will improve more than the Mets?
It’s obvious to me our post borders on fantasy!
And lets see what the Mets really do. Too early to see how much if at all the FO really agrees with the A-Rod fanboys.
I can’t believe for a second that you actually think individual postseason stats are a good way to judge a player’s overall value to a team.
It’s one of the things that goes into the mix when valuing a player. If you pay a player anywhere close to $30 million, you better consider all factors.
I can’t believe a GM wouldn’t consider this in the equation.
And I’d rather have Lowell, Manny or Ortiz than Bonds and A-Rod.
While there may not be enough for both A-Rod and Santana, that doesn’t mean that there aren’t other pitchers out there that could solidify the staff. Long term, big money contracts for pitchers are always more of a gamble than they are for position players.
That’s exactly my point. So you want to fill the team with second rate starters and relief pitchers in the future. Because that’s all they’ll be able to afford with A-Rod on the team.
Big money contracts for pitchers aren’t any more of a gamble than contracts that are twice as long for older position players not on steroids.
Like pitching in the NL. In a good pitchers park. And for a team that isn’t so uptight and corporate as Yankee teams of recent vintage have been. And for a team where he has some good friends.
Pitching in the NL? where he doesnt know any hitters? OK .. ill give you that.. what about the other NLteams?
Can Citifield be classified as a good pitchers park and a good hitters park???
Uptight and corporate? .. i thought he wanted to be on a WINNER??
And as for good friends.. do the mets have to be tied into Castillo and his balky knees for the length of a Santana contract? I hope not..
And how does A-Rod give the Mets extra bullets?
this is important.. you seem to have a hard time grasping it..
Whe we ADD A Rod we can MOVE other players and Prospects to IMPROVE PITCHING..
With out A Rod .. you need Milledge.. you NEED Delgado.. you have zero chips to get a quality pitcher in a trade. the FA Market for pitching this year sucks.
plain and simple.
And who said the Phils and Braves will improve more than the Mets?
Let’s see.. you advocate cutting Mota and adding a pitcher to replace Glavine and another arm.. that to me sounds like little to no significant improvement
It is a well known fact that the NL is a better pitchers league than the AL. Many pitchers, like Roger Clemens, Pettite, etc. have pitched much better in the NL, where they fact the opponents pitcher instead of their best hitter, and where most lineups are weaker. Plus, if anything, never having seen the hitters helps the pitchers and hurts the hitters.
Also, Citifield is being constructed with basically the same dimensions as Shea, making it a pitcher’s park.
Who exactly are you trading Delgado for? And if you’re trading prospects like Milledge for pitchers, that still involves taking on salary. With over $30 million locked up in Arod each and every year, the Mets won’t have a lot left to spend.
How can you possibly argue that it’s more of a risk to sign a 30 year old pitcher to a 5 year deal than a 33 year old to a 8-10 year deal. Not to mention the monetary differential.
No, pitching in the NL where there’s no DH. Where it’s generally agreed that the lineups are easier to get through and it’s easier to extend your career and maintain your stamina throughout the year.
They planned Citifield to maintain the advantage to pitchers that Shea has.
Everyone wants to be on a winner. But there are various ways to win. I guess you never watched teams like the ‘04 Red Sox or the ‘86 Mets? They were dramatically different than. the 2000 Yankees.
Santana is also very friendly with Reyes.
Whe we ADD A Rod we can MOVE other players and Prospects to IMPROVE PITCHING..
With out A Rod .. you need Milledge.. you NEED Delgado.. you have zero chips to get a quality pitcher in a trade. the FA Market for pitching this year sucks.
You seem to have a hard time grasping some realities: Moving Delgado will be almost impossible unless they want to eat maybe $8 million of his salary. Sure … you want them to pay A-Rod about $30+ million, then eat $8 million of Delgado’s salary? Are you nuts?
Without A-Rod they do not need Milledge. They can replace Lastings offense with someone like Fukudome. Then you can still trade Milledge.
It’s a big fallacy that you don’t have chips if you don’t get A-Rod. Hogwash.
However, with or without A-Rod, the Mets chips aren’t that great. This idea that they can get the quality pitching they need with the chips they have now is far-fetched.
Kosuke Fukudome is a solution??
what scares me about him other than his August Elbow surgery?
TAKE A GUESS
And Dome will command 4 years and 60 mil..
Christ.. I stil have nightmares about Kazuo.
and some pitchers prefer the AL because they dont have to bat..
Wow, what a reach! Surely you jest.
the point is you cant even THINK about moving anyone for a quality younger relatively cheap starter without adding a significant bat like A rod to the line up..
Sure you can. If you sign someone else to replace the production that someone like Milledge might produce.
the Mets WILL have money to spend.we are in the largest market with our own network
That isn’t the issue. The issue is whether or not they can stay under the luxury tax threshold and maintain a reasonable payroll. Also, the more revenues they pull in, the more they have to give back to MLB.
I think given A rods PHYSICAL makeup.. he is less of a risk to have serious injury or decline than any 30 year old pitcher ..
Disagree. Especially considering their respective ages at the end of the contracts they are likely to sign. A-Rod will be a bigger risk. And with hitters, it has a lot to do with diminished reflexes and bat speed. Things that physical conditioning can’t always fix.
and your front line pitcher will — by most accounts — command in excess of 22 million and maybe up to 25 million a year..for maybe up to Seven years.
Santana at the end of a 7-year contract will be younger than A-Rod at the end of his 10-year deal. Santana is much less risky.
Kosuke Fukudome is a solution??
Someone “like” Fukudome is a solution if you want to replace Milledge’s production.
what scares me about him other than his August Elbow surgery?
It was minor. And, at any rate he gets a medical before he signs.
And Dome will command 4 years and 60 mil..
You don’t know that. I’ve heard 3 years.
Christ.. I stil have nightmares about Kazuo.
Wow, so that’s a reason to close out the entire Japanese market. I’m sure many fans had nightmares about Benitez and Alomar. No reason to close out the Latin market because of them. Is there?
what scares me about him other than his August Elbow surgery?
It was minor. And, at any rate he gets a medical before he signs.
he had bone chips removed.. hardy “minor”
Delgado and Heilman had bone chips removed from their elbows this past winter. And they were physically fine come spring training.
At any rate, as I said, he gets a medical from any team that wants to sign him.
Delgado and Heilman had bone chips removed from their elbows this past winter. And they were physically fine come spring training.
and Delgado had a marvelous first half of the season post surgery.. he presumably past a physical as well..
Delgado didn’t have a great first half or second half. It’s called age. Not bone chips.
Delgado didn’t have a great first half or second half. It’s called age. Not bone chips.
his first half was an abomination.. his second half translated to a 30 HR year..
why was that?
Wow, Biggie, you really do have problems with numbers, don’t you. I suggest you just stay away from them in the future to prevent yourself from looking so foolish.
In the first half of 2007, Delagdo had 14 HRs and 49 RBIs. In the second half, he had just 10 HRs and 38 RBIs. So how exactly does that second half translate to 30 HRs a year??????
I’d like to hear this one.
he only played in 56 games in the second half genius.
Wow, so you’re even speculating on what he might have had if he played a full second half? Whereas his actual HRs in the first half were more?
LOL, ok even if I accept that flimsy speculative number for his second half, it would still only work out to 30 HRs vs. 28 HRs. Hardly a difference worth noting statistically. And certainly nothing a reasoned person would look at and suspect a difference in health from the beginning of the season to the end.
Wow, so you’re even speculating on what he might have had if he played a full second half? Whereas his actual HRs in the first half were more?
most of what you say is speculation..
of course I noticed you didnt bring up his OPS or OPS+ 1st half vs second half.. why would you when it doesnt support your point
Delgado was clearly a more comfortable hitter in the second half.. — did you even watch any games?
hopefully someone in the AL - like Toronto - will realize that and take his bored, protesting arse off our hands..
he was part and parcel to the apathetic nature of this team last year. he needs to go..get something for him now before the cancer of his attitude spreads..of course we cant do that with out a suitable replacement..(A Rod/Wright?)
LOL, because YOU are the one who brought up HRs first. I followed up on YOUR post using the same figures.
If you wanted to use OPS or OPS+ I would have been happy to discuss it. Why didn’t you? Be my guest.
And if what I said regarding this Delgado point is speculation — yours is even more so since it requires extrapolating partial half season stats into a full half season.
Did you even watch the games? He looked pretty bad in both the first half and second half.
And no one in the AL or NL will look at Delgado’s performance in ‘07 and think it is anything other than age decline. No one is going to take him unless the Mets pay a big chunk of his salary. Which isn’t going to happen.
Unlike the Yankees, the Mets just don’t throw money around to cover up their mistakes.
it’s soo obvious from watching the games that he under performed in the first half..
you wanna talk OPS and Delgado?
FIRST HALF
Apr/Mar 522
May 849
June 716
SECOND HALF
July 939
Aug 772
Sep/Oct 949
Career OPS 935
Now.. which half was more like his career?
No one is going to take him unless the Mets pay a big chunk of his salary. Which isn’t going to happen.
More speculation without thinking outside the box..
What about Toronto for Burnett? one of your “six elite pitchers possibly available in 2009″
It’s so obvious to anyone who watched the games that he underperformed all year long!
And anyone who bothered to look at his record would know that Delgado is traditionally a better performer in the 2nd half. In fact, the prior 2 years, his OPS in the second half rose by 148 points in 2005 and 123 points in 2006. This year his 2nd half OPS rose only 104 points!
If anything, this year he was more consistent in OPS between the 2 halves than he’s been in the recent past.
There is no indication that the bone chips hampered him in any way in the first half of 2007.
Regarding the 2009 LT payroll that I said I’d work up later today … do you agree or not about the parameters I outlined below at the end of this thread? The last thing I want to do is spend the time to put it together only to see you whine about minor points or 2008 numbers.
But as has been the case since the superstar opted out, they’re still viewed as a longshot in the A-Rod sweepstakes
…. so says Mark Hale about the Mets and A-Rod in today’s NY Post. Heyman obviously is spinning.
and the title of his article is OMAR IN A-ROD STAKES
Clearly the mets have moved up in the odds.. if only because other with the resources have droppped out..
So now that Shill is all but off the table.. what is the grand master plan for pitching pitching pitching in 2008??
I hear Glavine is available.. yeah right
Maybe we should shut it down..play the rooks and retreads.. and make a long shot run at Santana in 2009 .. sounds like a sound plan for failure… of course when we miss the playoffs Santana will be so turned off he’ll most certainly go elsewhere when .. or if.. he reaches Free agency.
You should know that the headline writers are separate and don’t even follow the team. They’re just headline writers.
What’s more important is what Hale says. And he’s closer to the team than Heyman.
The Mets have always been a contender because of their money. Whether they are a frontrunner is another story.
Yup, Schiling is off the table. Now according to you, he can suck for the Red Sox and impede their chances to make the playoffs. Because obviously Theo has no clue what he’s doing.
The grand plan is to improve the bullpen this year which was more of a problem than offense and then concentrate on pitching next year.
But if they overpay for A-Rod, forget about Santana. They won’t be able to bid aggressively for him or other pitchers on the market next year. And they lower their chances of ever winning a ring.
Why not? The Mets have revenues that can cover BOTH of them
PS- Johan never hits the FA market so forget it
No, they do not. Not without become the Evil Empire II which they will not do.
P.S. I bet he does.
Let me amend my reply. They have the resources to get both. But they don’t have room in the budget to get both if they want to maintain a reasonable one that doesn’t bring them into Evil Empire territory.
Sorry, but the talk of a “long shot run at Santana in ‘09″ is a line of crap that should not be repeated.
There are about 6 Cy Young caliber pitchers due to hit the market in ‘08. It is stupid to think that none of them will hit the market.
Letting our deadweight contracts expire and not tying up resources to get ARod will put us in the best position to get one of them.
Tying up resources with ARod will put us in a sub-optimal position.
We are essentially putting at risk what we need most for what we need least: a third baseman. Neither do we need more offense. Our offense was fine for the most part last year. More offense would just bring diminishing returns. More pitching would be highly valuable.
And quit talking as if ‘08 is the end of the world. There is nothing wrong with putting your run on hold for one confounded year for a better shot for the next 5-10 years after that.
Get those two things through the old noggin and then a real argument can be had. Until then it’s just transparent shilling and jive and the refutation thereof.
Our offense was fine for most of the season? What team were you watching? What were our numbers with RISP?
I don’t know about that…
Mets were 4th in the NL in BA w-RISP. Pretty good. Offense wasn’t their biggest problem. Pitching was. The bullpen was horrendous.
There are about 6 Cy Young caliber pitchers due to hit the market in ‘08. It is stupid to think that none of them will hit the market.
in 09 actually.. and that means it should be easier for us to add a significant pitcher in 2009
It will be harder to get any of them if they tie up and waster their resources on A-Rod. Especially Santana.
Carver-
The Mets had 402 hits with RISP in 1453 AB’s, good enough for sixth in the league behind the Rockies, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. We could have been better than that.
And as far as our pitching staff, Chicago and Arizona were the only two NL playoff teams that were ranked better than us at the end of the 2007 season.
Looks like we might have fared better had we been scoring more runs at the end of the year.
CW, are you nuts? No one ranks teams by sheer numbers of hits as teams all have different number of plate appearances. The fact is they were fourth in the league in BA w-RISP. FOURTH.
There’s not a lot of room for improvement there.
And I like how you make a proclamation about the Mets pitching and don’t even give a stat? No wonder. Because there is no main area of pitching that would place them where you think they rank.
Fact is, the Mets pitching staff was just 7th in the NL in ERA which is pretty poor considering the park they play in.
So once again your position is just wrong. Their bigger need was clearly pitching.
Please quit with the bogus line that Santana is such a longshot in ‘09.
There are about 6 Cy Young caliber pitchers available after ‘08. To think that none of them will file for free agency is plain dumb.
If we let our contracts expire in ‘08 and don’t get tied up in huge contracts, we will be in the best position to land one of those pitchers. If we get tied up with ARod, we put ourselves in a sub-optimal position. We are essentially putting at risk what we need most for what we need least: a third baseman. Neither do we need more offense. Our offense was fine for the most part last year. More offense would just bring diminishing returns. More pitching would be highly valuable.
And quit talking as if ‘08 is the end of the world. There is nothing wrong with putting your run on hold for one confounded year for a better shot for the next 5-10 years after that.
Get those two things through the old noggin and then a real argument can be had. Until then it’s just transparent shilling and jive and the refutation thereof.
After how 2007 ended you are prepared to disregard 2008, “put the run on hold” and shoot for 2009?????
NO thanks.. and I bet if you had a Fan Poll about that i’d be 100% against
What happens when pedro, Alou and Delgado are a year older? what happens when the mets are the laughing stock of late nite TV and NO Free Agents are wanting to come here?
What happens when seats are unfilled on opening day 2009 in Citifield?
Do we put 2009 on hold and wait til next year??
we did that in 2000 and look where it got us.. Seven years later we still have no hardware..
No one is saying to disregard 2008. The point is not to piss away the future by overpaying A-Rod this year.
Aiming for next year, then next year, then next year ad infinitum is a recipe for disaster every year. This is particularly true when our core is 24 years of age.
I underestimated your thickness. 2007 has nothing to do with 2008. It’s a sunk cost. Even if we had won a championship this year, the correct moves to make for the future would be the same as they are now.
2007 was disappointing, but not tragic. But the immaturity of someone still in knee-jerk mode over a month after the Collapse explains why you’re so high on ARod. The thinking behind your opinion, as I can now see is:
ARod hit ball hard. Must get!
As for future considerations, they simply don’t enter your mind.
What a creep you are. Someone disagrees, and you insult them: “knee-jerk” , “thick”, “immature”
God forbid anyone holds a different opinion anymore….
i don’t know what you were watching but 2007 was as tragic as it gets..
Hopefully it still sits in the craw of management, players and fans for a long time that standing pat and hoping for the best is a recipe for disaster.
A rod is simply the best PLAYER available TODAY.. Signing the best player available frees up other assets to make a strong pitching play..
Standing pat just means everyone else passes you by.
Those that don’t constantly strive to improve to the best of their ability atrophy and become irrelevant.
4joeorsulak, you shouldnt insult someone just bc they disagree with you on a topic that seems to have a very even amount of people on both sides of it. as for your statement of just going year by year and not thinking long term. yes that CAN be a disaster if you sign guys like mo vaughn or trade for roberto alomar. but when you are thinking about adding hands down the best all around player in major league baseball (some may argue EVER) its a little different. Plus, the idea of waiting till next year for better FA’s is just as much of a kiss of death as putting all your eggs in one basket now, bc if those FAs dont come, or get hurt before then, suddenly we have 2 straight offseasons of no impact players being added to the roster.
Plus, the idea of waiting till next year for better FA’s is just as much of a kiss of death as putting all your eggs in one basket now, bc if those FAs dont come, or get hurt before then, suddenly we have 2 straight offseasons of no impact players being added to the roster.
I disagree. A-Rod is almost surely a kiss of death for this franchise if they offer him close to what he wants. And for a longer term than simply waiting one year for the better players.
And next year there are so many quality free agent pitchers on the market that the Mets will be able to get some — if they don’t waste their money on A-Rod.
I have no problem with dissagreement, and have endured being called far worse and shrugged it off as rhetoric. My rhetoric was overheated and I apologize.
However, why my rhetoric was overheated is another matter. To still be wallowing in grief over 2007 is immature. There is no other word for it. Maturity involves not crying over what the inimitable Steve Somers calls “the toy department of life”.
To base your offseason moves of choice based on what happened in 2007 is in fact knee jerk. These are not insults, they are descriptive terms.
For the thick comment, I apologize without qualification.
Although I would not use the comment if I did not feel that Biggie was and remains disingenuous and evasive.
I, like Carver, do not advocate standing pat. There are some moves in the bullpen to be made this year, although I feel he’s more interested in ‘08 than I am.
If the Mets get ARod and win in 2008, I’ll eat my shorts.
If the Mets get ARod and don’t win in ‘08 and lose on the pitching sweepstakes in ‘09 and thereby hurt their chances of winning for the next 5 years, because that, according to Biggie, is what “winners” do, which is what I think will happen if they get him, what will Biggie do?
Biggie was and remains disingenuous and evasive
Agree with Joe. If that’s what precipitated his comments I can understand why he made them.
Biggie has repeatedly mischaracterized my position, and was arguing a point over and over gain about the Luxury Tax when it ended up he had misconceptions about how it even worked. Yet there was never an admission as to when he was wrong. Whereas when I had his position wrong in one post I apologized and admitted my error.
My thesis regarding the LT Situation still stands.. you choose to quibble over a few percentage points here and there.. which is the sign of someone without a position other than Arod Sucks.
And Orsuluk..
and IF Every Mets employee and fan doesnt still sting because of last year then you represent the minority of fans
and Im sorry.. but i view cutting Mota and adding a few retread bullpen arms and replacing Glavine with a similar player as standing pat..
Anti-Arod Jihadists.. why dont you look at my post at the bootm regarding my quick analysis of the Mets LT situation and tell me How the mets will eb hopelessless over the Lux Tax like the Yankees when 2009 comes around..
IF you cant do that than step aside and find another debate..
And regarding last year.. listen to the franchise player David Wright.. IT STINGS>> he has nightmares..
Hey Metsblog
. why dont we have a poll..
DOES LAST YEAR STILL STING FOR YOU?>
4JoeOrsulak - I didn’t take too much offense in your name calling - it is usually the sign of someone loosing a debate.
Contrary to your belief, no one is sitting around crying over last years spilt milk.. But I think we do a great disservice to ourselves and the Mets universe if we do not remember our past and vow not to repeat it.. For if we do not .. we will indeed spill the milk again.
.My support of obtaining Arod now is not a knee jerk reaction. In my view the team of 2007 was flawed in a lot of ways.
Starting Pitching, Bull Pen, Hitting, Age, Managerial Competance and Player Indifference.
The pitching options in the market today - and I havent heard you offer one yet — are clearly sub par.
This lineup needs another big bat.
We have an aged group of veterans and a young core and a group of prospects that will not return the type of pitcher that will make a difference in 2008.
We have the financial resources and the GM to make a bold move. But a Manager that has very little margin for error in strategy.
The Bull Pen - I believe - is a hit or miss proposition. One years star is another years rock on the ground.
All these problems need to be solved.
You are perfectly within your rights to shrug off last year as just another in a long line of disappointments. But when our admitted leader and franchise player goes on interviews saying he still has night mares about it the events of September 2007 I think we should all recognize that what happened has deeply affected the fan base, the management, the owners and the players and should not be repeated.
Yes this is all sport and in the scheme of life really means very little - but there are lessons to be learned that apply to every day life.
And in response to your inquiry about what I would do if we signed Arod, lost in 08 and then subsequently lost out on one of the pitchers who may or may not be available in 2009…
As a fan I would live to fight another day and I would hope the Management of the New York Mets would do everything within their powers , including trades and payroll additions, to bring a title to the Mets in 2009.
This would involve thinking out of the box and trying to improve the team as it stood AFTER THE 2008 SEASON.. NOT providing band aids to the failed team of 2008 and hoping for the best in 2009..
Ive been a mets fan since 1971 and have lived through numerous disappointments. And while 2007 is not the most glaring, it clearly has historic significance.
Winners learn from their failures and work as hard as they can not to repeat them. Its that simple.
Your thesis for the LT rested on the assumption that this year’s LT payroll was approximately $115 million,. You clearly misunderstood how the LT works or you would not have rested your thesis on the actual payroll numbers instead of the LT payroll. Since your base number was wrong, then your whole thesis is wrong.
I did not quibble over a few percentage points. Try over 15 million dollars in regards to your LT theory. Your distilling my arguments to quibbling over a few percentage points when that has never been a main point in any of my posts shows you have no logic and reasoning to your arguments. It is also further proof of your continuing to mischaracterize my posts and positions and an indication of your desperation to find counter-arguments when you have none.
I would tend to agree with David Lennon whose blog post Matt highlighted this afternoon and who correctly called the response of many Mets fans to the collapse and A-Rod’s availability as “over reaction.” His prescription for the Mets pretty much jives with what fans like me and Joe are advocating. A more reasoned and approach with an eye toward the future.
I think a fundamental difference must exist between parts of the fan base as you do seem strangely traumatized by the ending of the 2007 season calling it “historic.” LOL, I honestly don’t see anything historic about 2007 except for Glavine’s 300th win. Other than that, 2007 was just another disappointing year.
I hope you get over your trauma soon and that it doesn’t require something as drastic as overpaying for A-Rod to ease your pain.
why dont we ask Susyn Waldman.. there’s another impartial Yankees Entertainment and Sports employee what she feels..
why dont we run up to Sterling and ask him whether this is an AAAAABOMB.. or maybe Fransessa on the Fan.wants to chime in as another impartial source. jeezz..
the Anti-A rod jihad is falling so flat.. I cant believe you are resorting to parroting Kim Jones quotes.
So it comes from the orifice of someone who has spent a lot of time around the Yankees this year
it comes from an orifice that is otherwise securely around the Yankees Global Enterprise teet.
BiggieSmalls: that was BRILLIANT!
So Everybody wants ARod on the Mets.Well who do you think will be paying for his contract.We will,the fans.The cost of watching the Mets will go up in price.From your cable bill to the cost of going to the ballpark.It will be beyond expensive to go to a game at CITI Field.all to line pockets of Arod and Boros.We don’t need Arod we need
Pitching-Bullpen-remember them???
catching
2nd base
get a grip
JM
Guess what? Prices are going up anyway because we’re paying them. We will pay them when A-Rod signs, too.
However, we will have a better team for our buck.
A Rod belongs in a Met uniform PERIOD!!!!! It makes all the sense in the world…
A-rod is a childhood Met fan who rooted for straw and Carter just like us 30+ Met Fans.
Had it not been for Steve Phillips(Jerk passes on a-rod but signs MO Vaughn)…A-rod would have been a MET scince 2000 and we would have never fell off after reaching the subway series the year before.
We passed on him once Godforbid that happens again. We need him on the Mets..I can see him breaking Barrys homerun record in citi feild now and After last years collapse we need a shake up in the line up. Whatever it takes,whoever has to go? Omar do what you have to do to bring this Met fan to our team!!!!!!
arent the ticket prices for next year already higher? arod or not we’ll still be paying through the nose. so that argument is as concrete as the “hes not good bc he doesnt have a ring” comments.
Of course you’re right. Throwing big money at a player who “sucks the life out of a room” will be one of the biggest mistakes this organization can make. They’ll regret it deeply.
THere is no life to Willies room to suck out anyway, so maybe it will somehow work in reverse and add some!
There was in 2005. Maybe the problem is with some of the players, which is why you don’t bring a player like A-Rod with so much baggage into the clubhouse. It will likely make things worse.
I believe there are many great memories to be made with wright at third and reyes at short. let the mets be the mets. A-rod is not a winner in the bigger picture.
In addition to Rodriguez, Boras also represents David Newhan. Maybe Omar’s negotiating to bring Newhan back?
Kidding- the logical alternative might be Boras client Julian Tavares, whom Omar might REALLY be interested in, and Maddux and Lowe, who may garner a look from Minaya.
A-Rod will definitely be discussed, but he’s probably not Omar’s prime motivation for speaking with Boras.
Don’t mind me- I’m working off of next year’s list. Boras’ free agent clients this year include Rodrigo Lopez (ehh), Brad Wilkerson (only interested after any potential trades for Blanton, Harden, Haren or Santana), or Ron Villone (bleh).
So A-Rod will be the prime topic of conversation.
This team is going down down down.
It will be hard to be a Mets fan next year if they sign some of these guys they’re talking about.
I don’t care what team they are on, I WILL boo Posada and Arod if they are on the Mets next year. From the first time they come to bat until they strike out to end a failure of the regular season.
I really thought this team finally had management who knew how to win. Guess not.
You gotta believe…I guess.
Mets dude -You are buggin out!!! We dont need you as a MET fan then…A-ROD belongs with the METS( a childhood MetFAN)
Lets see you boo him when he hits 50 plus home runs for us and 110plus rbis year in and year out.Lets see you boo when he breaks the homerun recordi n citi feild. Omar knows show to win and getting AROD will give us the most dangerous lineup in baseball!!!
You need to becaome a STankee fan cause WE dont need your bad Karma DUDE!!!!
Wait..so I should become a Yankee because I don’t want to spend rediculous amounts of money on an individual player with no respect to the team? Oh..ok if you say so.
I will boo him when he hits 50 hr and 110 for us. I will boo him when our inept pitchers let up more runs than our “dangerous lineup” can score. This team will never win with Arod.
And finally, if you think my karma is bad, wait till you see how Arod reacts in the clubhouse after a win OR loss. I’ve seen it. It’s disgusting. Goes something like this:
Win, no hits for Arod = Arod sulking and no talking with media
Loss, many hits for Arod = Arod happy, joking, teamates looking pissed.
Win, many hits for Arod…..oh wait that never happens cause Arod’s teams never win.
And sorry, but I’m not gonna become a Yankees fan. I’m a Mets fan for life. Although, if you really want to cheer for guys like Arod and Posada, the Yankes are probably a good place for you.
In 1997, the Mariners lost to the Orioles in the ALDS mainly because Randy Johnson had an ERA over 5 and Ken Griffey Jr. batted .133. The 21 year old A-Rod went 5 for 16, batting .313.
In 2000, the Mariners lost to the Yankees in the ALCS. A-Rod went 9 for 22, batting .409. Jose Mesa and Arthur Rhodes scuttled the team’s chances with abysmal relief appearances.
From 2001 to 2003 the Rangers failed to make the playoffs despite being in the top five in team runs every year. This might have something to do with the fact that during these years their staff ERA was at or near the bottom of the AL.
From 2004 to 2007, the Yankees made the postseason every year. That they didn’t win a World Series every year is a function of the fact that A) anything can happen in a short series. B) Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown, Roger Clemens, and Mike Mussina weren’t as good as they had been years prior. C) Jaret Wright and Jose Contreras stunk, and D) Wang completed crapped out in ‘07
It is impossible to make the case that A-Rod is to blame for any one teams postseason failures. It is erroneous to state that A-Rod ’s salary is the reason why the Rangers pitching staff stunk. That burden lies squarely on the shoulders of Chan Ho Park, who gave them absolutely nothing in return for 75 million dollars.
so instead of getting arod to make our offense better to counteract our “inept pitchers” we should go sign some more sup par arms to go out there and let up 5 runs through 6? great idea. im sure if we sign arod we cant trade some chips for a starter right? no thats impossible, scott boras will probably put it in the contract as to not distract any media attention away from his client.
That they didn’t win a World Series every year is a function of the fact that …
Wow, lol. Way to be biased. You’d have more credibility if you at least mentioned A-Rod among the reasons. He’s been dismal since 2004.
It is impossible to make the case that A-Rod is to blame for any one teams postseason failures.
But if he’s not a difference maker in the postseason, why even pay someone that type of money? The Yankees were going to the postseason every year before A-Rod got there. And they went further in the postseason pre-A-Rod as well. So what is the point of paying one player so much?
It is erroneous to state that A-Rod ’s salary is the reason why the Rangers pitching staff stunk. That burden lies squarely on the shoulders of Chan Ho Park, who gave them absolutely nothing in return for 75 million dollars.
Why? They didn’t have the resources to spend on other pitching with a-Rod taking up so much of their budget. And it was A-Rod who lobbied the Rangers to sign Park, a Boras client.
we should go sign some more sup par arms to go out there and let up 5 runs through 6
Who’s advocating that???
:?:
Hey Slob, you pretty much just repeated what I said and tried to turn around the meaning.
When Arod hits well, his teams don’t win because they have so much money locked up in him that they can’t afford the pitching they need. And yes, that is his fault. We’re not talking $15-20 million here, we’re talking more than $30.
When Arod doesn’t hit well, again, his teams don’t win because they depend so much on him. Again, see: ridiculous contract.
I actually don’t think one player can ever be more responsible for a team’s failure than Arod. Not only was he making $25 million a year with Texas, he basically forced them to sign Chan Ho Park, another Boras contract. Look forward to the Mets being forced into contracts like this
If the Mets sign Arod, the cannot just go out and trade prospects for pitching. Pitchers who get traded for prospects make a lot of money. The Mets will not have this money to spend, and thus won’t be able to make these trades.
No one is advocating signing bad pitchers. Sometimes the best way to spend money is not to spend it. Save up, and make a run at Johan Santana, whether in a trade this July with a negotiation window, or in the free agent market. Let some of your younger pitchers develop. Explore trade possibilities for guys like Willis and Oswalt.
Arod ruins teams. Thanks for giving all the historical background for how he does so. Really saved me a lot of time.
The smaller the sample size, the less accurate the analysis.
What does that mean? That’s his entire career. He’s never won in his entire career. That’s not a sample, that’s all the data.
Your point is fundamentally asinine. Tom Hicks was the guy who decided to rely on Rick Helling, Doug Davis, Darren Oliver, Rob Bell, Aaron Myette, Ryan Glynn, Dave Burba, Hideki Irabu, Ismael Valdez, Colby Lewis and Ryan Drese. A-Rod didn’t sign any of those guys. A-Rod isn’t responsible for the Rangers not drafting well from 96 to 02. A-Rod’s contract, coupled with declining fan interest (due to years of mismanagement), may have kept Tom Hicks from signing big ticket pitchers, but A-Rod himself is not responsible for that. His production was the only thing that kept those teams from losing 100 games. Also, what big pitcher would Texas have been able to sign if they had the money? Mike Hampton? David Wells? The Rangers inability to acquire frontline pitchers had just as much to do with market conditions and poor organizational management as financial conditions. If Tom Hicks knew anything about baseball he wouldn’t have signed Chan Ho Park. Therefore, the problem isn’t A-Rod, but Tom Hicks.
By your logic, Chad Curtis is a winner. We don’t measure a player’s value by how many rings he has. We measure it by tangible statistics.
“His production was the only thing that kept those teams from losing 100 games.”
The Rangers have won more games every year since Arod left than they did in any year with Arod. So how exactly was he the only thing keeping them from losing 100 games? Clearly Arod didn’t have EVERYTHING to do with the Rangers sucking, but he didn’t help, did he?
Players aren’t measured by World Series rings. Players that are paid more than many teams are worth over the course of their contract are. Because if I’m gonna pay one player more than double anyone else on my team, I want to know that my investment will pay off.
The only way Arod is worth the money we are talking about is if he is “more” than a player. That’s what Scott Boras will be telling teams over the next couple of months. And if he’s more than a player, he has more responsibility than a player.
By the way many Yankees fans will argue that Chad Curtis is a winner. Actually, he is. Isn’t the point of the game to win World Series? Or am I missing somethign here.
You’re definitely missing something here. You take your Chad Curtis - David Eckstein - Jim Leyritz - Bucky Dent - Miguel Cairo dream team and put it up against a team led by A-Rod and Bond, both notorious postseason duds, along with Vlad Guerrero who is 3 for his last 30 postseason at-bats. I’ll take Ernie Banks and Ted Williams, who both sucked because they have no rings. We’ll see which team is better in the end.
Well I’m assuming since you’re spending all your money on hitting, I get my pick of pitchers? I’ll take Johan, Kofax, Ryan, Randy Johnson and Maddox.
Now which team is better. Because THAT is the point. Obviously a $200 million payroll team could beat a team of scrubs.
I’ll take Jim Bunning, Gaylord Perry, Walter Johnson, Robin Roberts, Ferguson Jenkins, and Juan Marichal, who have a grand total of 1 World Series Rings among them.
how about adding in Bob Feller?
He played 20 years and pitched one WS Game with a 5.02 ERA
He sucked. not clutch
No, now you’re totally missing the point. I already told you that all players aren’t judged on WS rings. Obviously. Only Yankees fans think they are.
The point is that a player that my team is paying $300 million dollars SHOULD be judged on WS rings. If he can’t bring you the ring, why is he worth double anyone else on my team? What’s the point of paying that if he can’t accomplish the goal. THAT’s the point.
my mistake.. Feller pitched in TWO GAMES in 1948 against boston.. lost both and walked 5 guys in 14 innings.gave up 10 hits too..
dont want him on my team.. ha ha
I’ll take him. Not for $35 million a year though.
Biggie - I actually had Feller in the list until I found Jenkins. And there are plenty of HOF and near-HOF pitchers who have 1 ring. Pete Alexander is one.
metsdude - No. YOU’RE missing the point. The point is that the sum total of postseason statistics for ANY particular player is in no way an accurate representation of his value to a team. If I were paying a guy 300 million dollars, I’d be looking at his actual performance, and not unmeasurable, abstract, gut-instinct junk like “clutch” whatever.
Here’s the line on A-Rod in the ALCS:
54 AB 4 HR, 10 RBI .315/ .413/ .611
What a choker.
Here’s another player’s ALCS line
168 AB 5 HR 20 RBI .262 /.339/.405
Wanna guess who it belongs to?
Slob–
you really make a critical fantastic point regarding post season performance.. its inherently small samples..
Any one scrub or superstar and bomb or bloom in any one post season..
Id much rather put my money on the historically great in season performer to perform in any given future post season contest..
it seems so simple except tot he anti-arod jihadists.
The point is that a player that my team is paying $300 million dollars SHOULD be judged on WS rings. If he can’t bring you the ring, why is he worth double anyone else on my team? What’s the point of paying that if he can’t accomplish the goal. THAT’s the point.
I agree. There is no point in paying a player that much money if he can’t be a difference maker in the postseason.
The point is that the sum total of postseason statistics for ANY particular player is in no way an accurate representation of his value to a team.
Nonsense. It represents PART of his value to a team. If the player only has a postseason or two, then I might tend to say the sample size is too small. But once they’ve started to accumulate multiple postseason appearances, then the sample size becomes valid for judging things like clutchness.
And slob, talking about small sample size, why the heck are you cherry picking A-Rod’s ALCS stats? That’s the most bogus use of sample sets.
Is it any more or less bogus than using his ALDS stats?
Both are bogus. That’s cherry picking when a fuller sample size exists. Use the entire postseason that exists for a player or don’t use anything at all.
[...] Orlando and many, many rumors always begin flying around this time of year. MetsBlog says that the New York Mets are going to make a serious play for Alex Rodriguez this off-season. And the first sit down will be this week in [...]
A-ROD we be a totaly differnt player come playoff time for the METS!! His heart has always been with the METS..we need a MVP season type player in our organization…When you have the money and the opportunity to get a Special player like A-ROD You get him !!! no matter what…i dont care for that what have you done for me in the post season crap!!! Let us deal with that when we are in the post season!!! GET A ROD!!!!!
“His heart has always been with the Mets.”
Are you kidding me? Don’t believe everything that you read about A-Rod or anything that he has said. The guy is a phony and a fraud. On February 19, 2007, A-Rod said “I want to be a Yankee and I understand my contract and I understand my options. My goal is to go in with Derek and Mo and open the new Yankee Stadium. It’s pretty clear.”
So spare us the he grew up a Mets fan garbage and stick to the only real argument for acquiring A-Rod which is that he is the best player in the game. Just don’t be one of the people who boo A-Rod unmercifully if he slumps next April or fails to deliver a clutch hit next September.
His heart has always been with the METS
Must be nice to have selective amnesia.
After the 2003 season, he and Boras ruled the Mets out as landing places when they planned their Texas escape. To refresh your memory, the Mets stunk at the time.
Keep in mind that A Rod is also now in the legacy part of his career. Sure the money is important, but he is getting that anyway.
What he should be looking at now is, where does he want to play to finsih out his career, how important is getting to the WS, and where do you want to be when records start falling?
For all intents and purposes, this should be his last “real” contract. Sure, he might play when he is 42 (and a shell of his former greatness), but you gotta figure that the 6-8-10 year deal he is about to sign will be the last huge one, and the one that he makes the HR and other record run onder.
You must assume that when they signed with Texas, that was all about the money, and they knew that he was probably going to be a FA this year anyway, so he could pile up $4 and stats in Texas, then go someplace else to break the records and wind it down.
If anything, getting traded to the Yankees screwed up their plan! If he hadn’t been, he would probably have better numbers overall (piled up in Texas) and none of the PS baggage and drama.
All this, of course, would have set him up for coming to NY as the huge $$ hero to lead a franchise to glory, since it would all be about winning rings and breaking the big records.
Oops. Guess the 4 year detour to the Bronx screwed that plan up!
Coming to NY was about improving his value for his upcoming contract. That is all that Arod/Boras ever think about. He came to NY, got the press, became the biggest star in the game, and is now talking about over $300 million. And we all laughed at the out clause - saying no one would ever opt out of a quarter of a billion dollar contract. Guess who’s laughing now.
Personally, it would be incredibly hard to root for a player like A-Rod. Yes, he’s the best player in the game today .. but he, along with Bonds, are probably the two most self-centered individuals in baseball. We have the makings of a dynamic team already with young All-Stars in Wright and Reyes manning 3B and SS. I cannot believe that people actually are advocating possibly disrupting their future development for a guy who merely used us as financial leverage 7 years ago. Also, just the thought of moving either one of them is complete madness. There are simply way too many risks involved.
Our priority needs to be shoring up the bullpen and inquiring on potential trades for pitchers. Resign Castillo, and figure out what to do at catcher.
Going after Arod with a “walkaway” number means they’re not getting him.
So rather than waste time, Omar should get it out of the way on day 1 they can discuss money, then get onto other things
i agree, once i saw walkaway i could read the writing on the walls. i just hope its not a lowball offer. if its something around 8 yrs, 27-30 mill thats a ton of money and if he rejects that then eff him and look to pitching/the trade market.
That’s a good call, except I would shorten up to 5 yrs $24M, because in my view, that represents his value to the team, and he’ll decline swiftly after age 37.
Which means we’ll be outbid, which is fine by me. ARod is worth more to a poor offensive team with several pitchers under their control. They might be able to afford him.
am i the only one who thinks heyman is making up this BS? he just spoke to omar, and omar only said he was looking around, but yet he spoke to someone in the organization saying “We’ve got to go for this guy.” why would he speak to some nobody, when he just heard from the guy who is making the moves.
olney,rosenthal,and heyman, and all these writers make up these fairy tales.
I have one question that no one seems to want to answer.
If Arod is so good for his teams, why did the Rangers pay so much to get rid of him? And why have they won more games every year since he left than they ever did with him on the team.
How does this guy help?
he doesn’t help. has anyone learned anything from the rangers? you can’t buy championships, why would give a guy who more money and more at years 32, than he had at 25? and he is a me guy.he’s probably a decent person, but for him its about money, everything he does is about money, and he is full of drama. some of you fans just dumb in general, and get sucked in by the media and by boras.
They paid so much to get rid of him because Tom Hicks is a moron. They’ve done better since then because they replaced his production in the lineup with Soriano, Blalock, and Teixeira. Kenny Rogers, Vicente Padilla, Chris Young, Kevin Millwood, and Francisco Cordero all performed far better than the pitchers on their staff from 01 through 03. Then again, how much better are they, really? One winning season. A few 3rd place finishes in a 4 team division? Come on. Losing A-Rod didn’t help them.
Didn’t hurt them.
And they (Texas) were able to do that because they got rid of a good chunk of ARod’s salary. Otherwise, it would have been impossible to get those players.
You could very well get Tex and Orlando Hudson next year-or Hudson’s equivalent if he’s not available…there are a ton of great middle infielders due in ‘08–for ARod money. Both of these would fill positions of need in ‘09 and no one has to be moved. What’s more valuable?
Furthermore, I would like some of the pro-ARod people to give their limit on how much he is worth: that is, how expensive does he have to be before you pass?
Mine is $22M 5 yrs, admittedly low, but again, I don’t think he’s be that valuable, and Boras is inflating his cost severely.
He’s looking for a sucker folks, do you want the Mets to be that sucker?
I come on this site alot and all I keep reading is how people do not want A-rod. Wheter its because of money or whatever other negative factor. However, the Mets are in control of this situation. They don’t need him so if he commands to much they won’t get him and if he is willing to take what he’ll come here. All i know its worth a shot to get him if he decides he wants 350 million trillion dollars he can go somewhere else.
He’s already decided that, it’s not part of the discussion. I don’t think that anyone here is arguing that he will come to the Mets for less money than anywhere else. He turned down $30 million a year from the Yankees, so start from there.
Obviously we’d all want him for $20-25 million. That’s not his price. Thus, like you said, he can go somewhere else.
I’m just scared the Mets are getting ready to give him whatever he wants.
I dont believe this myth that the Mets will have no room in 2009 to add a Top Pitcher.. so heres my numbers …
in 2007 the mets had a Payroll of 116 Mil with a Lux cap payroll of 136 Mil on a LUX CAP of 148 Mil
Lets say the mets sign Arod for 33 mil..just say..
if the mets Dump Castillo, Valentin, Glavine and Greene their 2008 payroll is estimated at 140 Mil (with Arod) with a cap number of 142 Mil..and the LUXURY CAP LEVEL is 162 Mil. — — even if they DONT DUIMP Delgado and save 12 mil..
they are STILL 20 MIL unde the 2008 CAP
So in 2009 .. when all these starters are expected to be available.. and Alou and Martinex come off..
They’ll have somewhere around 115 Mil in Payroll and a 120 MIL CAp number with a LUXURY CAP LEVEL of 171 MILLION,, thats assuming they KEEP Perez at 10 mil and Maine is still under control at around 3 mil.
So VCarter and all the other Anti Arod jihadists..
where exactly is the shortage of Funds in 2009 to compete for a starting Pitcher??
where is the evil empire 2 future of luxury tax payments? or are we now to say wait to the near after next year?
In your scenario, you lose Glavine in 2008 and don’t replace him. You lose Castillo and don’t replace him. And you don’t have a catcher. You also do nothing to help the bullpen.
In 2009, you lose Pedro and Alou, so now you don’t have a LF. Still haven’t done anything about your bullpen.
Obviously it could be done, with major cuts to other positions. That’s what the Rangers did. It didn’t work. Signing Arod and Santana is great if you have a team around them. Otherwise it just doesn’t work. The money just doesn’t work out.
In your scenario, you lose Glavine in 2008 and don’t replace him. You lose Castillo and don’t replace him. And you don’t have a catcher.
NO.. in my scenario you KEEP LoDuca, KEEP GOTAY, Hernandez to play second and let Glavine Go — to be replaced with a quality young cheap arm that you trade for….
in 2009 you got Gomez to play left and certainly Arod picks up any offensive slack you lose with Alou’s 80 Games played.
read carefully.. it works.. the anti - Arod jihad contends the Mets with Arod would be Evil Empire 2 (hopelessly 30 mil over the cap with endless luxury tax payments) .. show me how it doesnt work out or move on..
you also keep Castrro at a reasonable price..
More fear mongering from the ant-Arod jihad.
As for the Bull pen.. its a season disorder.. players have good seasons and bad.. with Sanchex and Padillo coming back and the Rooks we signed.. we have plenty of arms.. not to mention Pelfrey and Humber and YES even Mota -with the right drugs.
Matter of fact.. you have Soo many arms you could package Heilman and his pouty face with milledge to get your 3 million dollar workhorse in Lowry or Blanton or whoever you want..
it doesnt matter at this point.. the discussion is Arod gives you the chips to make other moves and doesnt hopelessly cap out the team ad ininitum.. thats a myth perpetuated by the Anti Arod Jihad
diont forget Joe Smith and WIllie Collazo in the BP..
Numbers:
The Met’s lux tax payroll in ‘09 assuming they get ARod and a top-flight pitcher is about $145M.
This is with Milledge and Gomez playing left and right field.
This is with Castro catching and a $1M backup.
This is with a rookie at 1st base.
This is with pitching as follows. Top Flight/Maine/Perez/Pelfrey/Humber.
If you want Tex, or any other star in case Gomez doesn’t work out, just one will cost at least $16M. Let’s assume that they have to get one.
So chalk it up to a $161M Luxury tax payroll in ‘09.
The cheapest route, if Milledge, Gomez, Humber and Pelfrey do well (and I like prospects, but even I’m not that optimistic) is $145M. Otherwise, it’s $161M+.
Wait, there’s more.
Let’s say we want a non-rookie at 1st base. A decent hitter will cost $10M.
Let’s say either Pelf or Humber don’t work out.
A replacement pitcher might cost another $10M
That puts us very close to the cap at $165.
Will the Wilpons pay it?
Just take ARod out of that equation and we have a $140M team in ‘09 at most.
NICE TRY .
IN 2009 you have WRIGHT OR AROD at first base .. NOT A ROOKIE>>
and the model Assumes LDuca is the catcher at 5.5 Mil per year thru 2009
And At 142 the Mets are STILL 30 Mil under the Cap.. So AGAIN.. HOW are the METS capped out and paying luxury tax in 2009 at a 162 Lux Tax level with plently of room to add a top flight pitcher??
and I was off by a Year.. the LTL is 155 in 2008 and 162 in 2009 and 171 in 2010..
And At 142 the Mets are STILL 30 Mil under the Cap..
should read 20 mil under the cap in 2009
Biggie, you must know that if I posited a rookie 1st baseman, I must have assumed ARod playing in 2nd. As it is, now we trade our rookie 1st baseman for a Gotay type at 2nd. Whoopte-do.
Also, as I said before, our LT payroll in ‘09 if we get ARod is at least $145M with various assumptions.
(
I will reiterate these assumptions:
1) Scrub at 1st or 2nd
2) Gomez in LF
3) Milledge in RF
4) Pelfrey our 4th starter
5) Humber our 5th starter.
6) Scrub backing up Castro
(I actually agree with your assessment about the bullpen. Collazo, Muniz, Sanchez, and Smith should be able to compliment Heilman, Feliciano, and Wagner to form a good bullpen. (I’m even hoping that Sanchez and Muniz are good enough to make Wagner redundant, since we could get real value for him, and he–like ARod–is a choke artist.)
Note that this is what $145 million is buying you. Think of the opportunity cost of what $145M could get you if $30 isn’t tied up in ARod.
If any of this does not work, i.e. If any of Pelfrey, Humber, Milledge, Gotay, Castro, or Gomez do not pan out, well, add $10M to the payroll for each one who fizzles, cuz that’s what it will cost to fill those positions with good players.
Let’s say 3 of the 6 pan out. That is a reasonable projection for prospects. I wish to keep our prospects thinking that half will flourish, which will be plenty worth it. Well, that means three fail. That’s an extra $30M, which puts our ‘09 at $175M. Well above the Lux Tax.
We would have a very expensive and top heavy team with little depth behind our big 4, Reyes, Beltran, Wright, ARod, and our big 3–Santana, Ollie, and Maine–for $175M.
n 2007 the mets had a Payroll of 116 Mil with a Lux cap payroll of 136 Mil on a LUX CAP of 148 Mil
Biggie, I see that you now admit your previous attempt to use the 115 mill figure was wrong and you appear to now have a clearer understanding of the LT.
But unfortunately, you still don’t understand it all that well. Their LT payroll in 2007 is actually closer to 144 mil.
I still maintain there is no way to sign A-Rod, sign Santana, keep quality players in the bullpen, rotation, and at other positions and not exceed the LT threshold.
to say the collapse of 2007 was not historic is simply not true.
Im not going to quibble over yesterdays debate..I quoted teh mets PAYROLL as 115 MILLION… if you read my post completely .. rather than the first line.. you wouldve seen my point clearly.
Th fact remains, my 2008 payroll of 140 Mil WITH ARod is comfortably below the 155 LT Level.. NOT Evil Empire Territory.
Name 2008 SAL CAP
AROD 33 33
BELTRAN 18.5 17
DELGADO 16 13
MARTINEZ 11 13.25
WAGNER 10.5 10.75
ALOU 7.5 7.5
DUQUE 6.5 5
LODUCA 5.2 5.2
PEREZ 5 5
WRIGHT 5 9.16
REYES 4 5.8125
SCHOENEWEISS 3.6 3.6
MOTA 3.2 2.5
CHAVEZ 2.25 2.25
PELFREY 1.3125 1.3125
FELICIANO 1.25 1.25
CASTRO 1.1 1.1
D EASLEY 0.95 0.95
M ANDERSON 0.925 0.925
D. SANCHEZ 0.85 0.85
HUMBER 0.84 0.84
HEILMAN 0.75 0.75
MAINE 0.625 0.625
J SMITH 0.427 0.427
GOTAY 0.425 0.425
2008 payroll 140 mil
LT PAyroll 142
LT Level 155
Biggie, yes, you quoted the Mets 2007 actual payroll (115 million) in a post about current and near-term LT payrolls, and as the premise of your post. But that figure is irrelevant as actual payrolls are not used in LT computations. It was clear from your attempted use of the 115 million figure the other day that you didn’t understand how the LT payroll works. I’m glad you now understand it better. I mean why did you even bring it up and give a link to it? What relevance did it have?
As for the 2008 LT payroll, if you’ve been paying attention, that has never been the issue with me and I don’t believe others either. The issue is with the LT payroll that had both A-Rod and Santana in it — in other words, 2009 going forward. That has been the basis of my objection to A-Rod. So for you to focus on the 2008 LT payroll instead, like you seemed to do just above, is senseless.
Now I didn’t read every word of every post immediately above and only noticed that you and Joe were discussing this topic down here just late last night. So if your discussion of the LT 2008 payroll arose out of something you and Joe were debating, then pardon me.
But otherwise, it has little relevance to the position I’ve been repeating for days now regarding A-Rod as even if the Mets were to trade for Santana for 2008, he won’t be paid what it will cost to lock him up in an extension or as a free agent for years 2009 and onward.
Also, in my post late last night, I referenced your incorrect figure for the 2007 LT payroll, which also makes it puzzling why you responded with 2008 LT figures in your post. Did you even read my post before replied?
I mean I was talking about years 2007 (last last night) and 2009 (for the last few days), and you reply about 2008? :?:
2007 is over.. the payroll was around 115 and the lux cap payroll was (at least 10 mil .. maybe 15 mill) below the 148 level..
there is over 25 mil coming off the payroll in 2008
these are very simple concepts.
I know 2007 is over. But you referenced the 2007 LT payroll incorrectly in your post the other day as well as above when you say it was 136 million. It was higher than that. It was about 143 million.
And again, the issue in my position has always been year 2009. So why are you obsessing about 2008?
Also, as I just mentioned in my other post, your LT figures even for 2008 are wrong.
And about the 2007 collapse, can you say why you think it is historic? From a probability perspective, it wasn’t very historic at all.
interesting spin.. how many other teams lost a 7 game lead with 17 to go?
If you understand math, you would know that the probability of losing a lead of 6-1/2 with 12 to go is substantially smaller. Substantially.
One more thing, Biggie. LT payrolls are based on 40-man rosters and include benefits. Your failure to include figures for a 40-man roster or benefits in your 2008 LT list above shows you still have a poor understanding of how the LT works. If included, the LT payroll for 2008 would be at or above the threshold. But again, 2008 is NOT the issue. It is years 2009 and onward.
stop obfuscating the point.. the bottom 15 on the roster is maybe 4 mil total..
again..if you refuse to address the issue and focus on dotting Is and crossing Ts I dont think I can continue this debate.
you comments that adding Arod would mean the mets are hopelessly capped out in the future and destined to luxury tax payments is completely unsubstantiated..
LOL,how can you argue the LT payroll when your first set of figures for 2007 the other day was about $30 million off, and your current set of figures are about 8 million off?
I know I can’t continue the debate if you insist that $8 million and $30 million errors are just a matter of dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s.
LOL, 30 million would pay for A-Rod. That is quibbling?
And no, my comments that A-Rod and Santana would force the Mets to exceed the LT tax in the near future are based on fact — math. Apparently you don’t like math as you have little understanding of it and think $30 million and $8 million errors are nothing to sneeze at!
As further proof of your inability to comprehend numbers, you think 6-1/2 with 12 to play represents longer odds than 7 with 17 to play.
Meant to say “represents shorter odds” above.
again. my comment the other day where that the PAYROLL was 115.. that you admittedly dint read the rest of the post and made your own conclusions is not my problem.
No, I did read the rest of your post. I didn’t argue the rest of it in my reply since your premise on which it rested — figures for the 2007 LT payroll — was completely wrong. So the rest of your post was invalid.
And BTW, if you read back to that thread, I offered then to work up a detailed LT payroll. But you basically said never mind. Then you pop up in this thread last night and come up with a new one for yourself but it is still off, missing critical costs.
So I was willing to give a detailed accounting of my numbers back then, but you didn’t want to see it. I guess you just want to live with your own numbers and in fantasyland.
i bailed on that thread after your refusal to address the core of the analysis..
the basis is thus:
the LT level for 2008 is 155
the LT level for 2009 is 162
adding a 30 mil player in 08 does not put the team in a position where it cant spend on a top flight pitcher and the team will not be in “the evil empire territory of 20 - 30 mil over the cap” and “hopelessly capped out and destined to a future of luxury tax payments” –or “destined to a rotation of brian lawrence and other fodder.
you can reply as much as you want .. but that is simply has not been substantiated by you with ANY math what so ever.
No, that whole post was about Luxury Tax legroom and rested on this statement of yours to begin your post, and I quote:
FACT> Mets payroll last year was 115 Mil..agreed?
From this incorrect assumption and misconception of yours, you drew further assumptions as to how much room the Mets had to work with regarding future LT thresholds. If your initial numbers are wrong, then your subsequent assumptions regarding how much room there is to work with are wrong. So my response was to point it out, offer to work up a detailed LT payroll so we had some correct numbers to start out with, and then proceed from there. But you bailed out as you admit.
So now you come up with your revised numbers but they are still wrong. At least $8 milion dollars wrong in regards to the 2007 LT payroll.
And I know what the future LT thresholds are. That has never been an issue of contention.
I offered a few days ago to give you my math. You didn’t want it then. But now you are whining about it?
So, do you want it or not? I’ll be more than happy to give it to you. Can we agree on the years? Can we agree on certain parameters too? It will substantiate my position.
if you’d like to back up your apocalyptic projections with actual numbers and put some substance behind your rhetoric that is entirely up to you..
ill stay subscribed to the thread and Ill be sure to check very decimal point of your analysis.
the years in question have always been 2008 and 2009..
Now that you are open to looking at real numbers, I’ll take me time to work it up and post it today.
Can we agree on some parameters? Like doing the 2009 LT payroll (not 2008) based partly on expenditures made in 2007 for the same players they had in 2007 (ie Heilman and OP) but using things like arbitration and free agent numbers where applicable?
Can we agree that we will include all category of costs that MLB uses to compute LT taxes?
Also, before I work it up, why is 2008 in question for you when it is not at the crux of my objections to A-Rod? LOL. I don’t want to do 2009 and then see you putting up a big stink about 2008 numbers which you seem to be obsessed with them, but they are not even central to my anti-A-Rod position?
i would consider Heilman as trade bait..but he’s still not FA for a few years.
OP is probably an $8 million pitcher in 2009 // 2.39 in 2007 and probably 4 or 5 in 08
put it together.. and we’ll take a look.. far be it from ME to whine about “minor points”
Heilman is arbitration eligible this winter which means his salary goes up considerably. I think he’ll be a free agent by ‘09 but I’m not sure. At any rate I’ll just an arb # for him for ‘09.
Heilman is under control until 2010.
he made 453K in 2007. Feliciano made 602K
they both have the same service time.. both completed their third year of service in 07.
with Sanchez coming back and Joe Smith lurking and some good relief arms in the system I dont think Heilman will last on the team past 2008 . . .
Id call them both on the fence.. def. under 2mm a year a piece in 2009 — if they’re both around. odds are feliciano will be around and heilman gone in a SP package.
neither will get shoenweiss/ mota money as NO middle reliever should.
I disagree that no middle reliever should get Mota/Show money. If you take that stand, then be prepared to have a sub-par bullpen.
Mota and Show don’t deserve Mota/Show money.
But Bradford deserves Mota/Show money. I think Riske deserves Mota/Show money. And he will get it or close to it. There are others too.
I put Show and Mota in different categories just for the reason of the commitment in years.. although they both sucked it to the same degree.
While they both come in around 3 mil 2008 — Mota is for JUST 2008 (3.2) while Show is at the trough for two more years (2007 - 2009 ) at 3.6 per..
3+ mil for two years I can stomach for a guy with a history of success.. but three years..with these middle/setup guys you are just as likely to get two bad and one good as two good and one bad..and with the competitive environment in FA relief pitchers vs the odds of RP uncovering some forgotten jewel.. id much rather take my chances with the joe smiths and willie collazos of the world .. even a jorge sosa project has merits for one year in the pen.
ChadBrad certainly didnt set the world on fire this year.. and he’s locked up with the O’s for another 2 yrs at over 3 mil a year.
Its a fickle breed.. these BP guys
As for Riske.. given that he had a good 2007 in KC he had less pressure situations than a toll booth attendant…And while he did OK with Cleveland in 05 his 06 wasn’t exactly a revelation. same deal with 03 vs 04
Again. these middle guys go in and out like the tide.so its more a three year aversion that a 3+ mil aversion..
Save for your closer.. I wouldn’t commit more than 12-14 mil to the back of the pen.. including the setup role… id rather spend the dough on a guy that can actually go 7 innings.
Sure, $3+ million for a pitcher whose back of his baseball card is primarily bad numbers is a bad deal. For a pitcher like Bradford though, whose baseball card sports predominantly good numbers, then it’s a good risk.
This idea that all middle relievers are a cr@pshoot is total cr@p. I know some like to spout that, but it doesn’t make sense when there are many relievers around who are consistently good.
If you get 2 out of 3 good years from a middle reliever like Bradford, then it’s a successful contract. That’s about what you’re going to get with most starters and most closers anyway.
Smith as we saw couldn’t even make it through the whole season. If I had to choose between him and Bradford this year, it’s Bradford all the way. And Collazo hasn’t done anything yet in the majors.
Of course I’d like to give the Smiths and Collazos opportunities. But they also need to have relievers who can be more of a sure thing as well. That doesn’t mean Mota or Show. They are two of Omar’s worst signings since he became GM.
This idea that all middle relievers are a cr@pshoot is total cr@p. I know some like to spout that, but it doesn’t make sense when there are many relievers around who are consistently good.
Name TEN that are CONSISTENTLY GOOD
A- Not A Closer
B - Currently in the League
C - His last three years had A WHIP at or below 1.35
D- has not had an injury in the past three years.
Your injury criteria is nonsense. If GMs avoided giving multi-year contracts to any player who has had an injury over the previous 3 yeasr, almost every player in the majors would be on 1 year contracts!
Bradford
Riske
Mahay
Heilman
Sanchez
Feliciano
Howry
Linebrink (when younger)
Qualls
Rauch
Bradford — 1.41. and 1.438 WHIP in 05/07
Riske — ill give you him
Mahay — 1.76 and 1.44 WHIP in 05/06
Heilman — OK.. want him off the team but OK
Sanchez — Duaner? i expect him back in 08
Feliciano -pitched in Japan in 05 -
Howry — good player
Linebrink (when younger) — hasnt been bad
Qualls — good young pitcher
Rauch — good..
three of your picks were Mets in 2007
you are making my point that the BP wasnt that bad
Although Duaner hasnt pitched in over a year..
nice.. didnt think you’d get that many.. more the exception than the rule.
I’m not buying into your WHIP criteria because fact is Bradford’s WHIP has been under 1.300 for 7 out of his 10 years. That fits my cirteria of bing good at least 2 out of 3 years. So Bradford counts.
And Mahay pitched most of his career in severe hitters parks. So of course his WHIP is gong to be higher. He also fits my criteria of 2 out 3 years being good in terms of ERA and WHIP.
Feliciano also fits since all but one of his years was good (I’m excluding his first year when he only pitched 6 innings).
While 3 of those mentioned were mets in ‘07, only two of them pitched this year. So, no, the Mets bullpen was NOT good this year and if you think so then maybe you were not watching the games very carefully.
So that’s 10 pitchers that I came up with in just minutes. There are undoubtedly more. The point still stands, it’s utter cr@p that all middle relievers are a cr@pshoot. They clearly are not.
BTW, I did the 2009 LT payroll. I posted it in a newer thread from today because the topic was relevant. It is here:
http://www.metsblog.com/2007/11/06/buzz-mets-to-make-significant-run-for-a-rod/#comment-37278
i see im .. im burying this thread.. catching up on the other one.
wow i agree with you in principle but 12 yrs 400? youll be paying him 33+ million when hes 44?! i dont think so, boras may look like a fool for rejecting that but we’d look like fools for offering that.
Ask Tom Hicks how getting Arod without a walkaway number worked out for him. Boy, he sure couldn’t seem to wait to rid himself of that mistake. Interesting….