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Today in the Bergen Record, citing ‘Mets insiders,’ Steve Popper writes that the Mets can afford a $30–million-per year player, like free-agent 3B Alex Rodriguez.
…however, i’m starting to get the sense, having talked with people connected to the team, from media to employees, that a) Omar Minaya does not think it is wise to sign a-rod, due to the impact it could have on other needs, but b) he must meet with Scott Boras so he can c) give a well-researched recommendation to ownership, who will have the ultimate call, because if ever there is a decision that could impact this team as a business it is this…
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7 years / 210 million to play first base. Take it or leave it……Next topic, PITCHING
Sounds good to me.
Except not much pitching out there except for reclamation projects you have to trade for.
There’s no point in making that offer he won’t accept it. Let’s just leave him alone and go improve this team.
Well, you make the offer for a couple of reasons:
1) It shows you are trying
2) It gets closure so you can move on to plan B, and
3) most imortantly, he might accept it!
I’d actually argue that it shows you’re not trying. It’s a lowball offer that shows that you do not really want him but you want your fans to think you tried. It’s amateur-ish, and would be an embarassment to this organization. Either decide that you don’t want him, or want him and do what it takes to get him.
$30M/year for 7 years is “lowballing” on a 32 year old player? Crikey.
Yup, that’s the insanity we’re talking about here. Still want him?
OR, that could be the best offer he gets. No one knows. He can ask for the moon. It doesn’t mean he’s going to get it.
Haha…you still don’t realize how smart the Arod/Boras monster is…do you? They’re the smartest two people in baseball. They will get at least $280 million, and at least $30 million per year.
I don’t think its an either or with the two options being only- don’t even talk to him or do whatever it takes to get him..
Talking with Boras at least shows the Mets are somewhat intrigued, and that maybe they want to talk a bit to help them reach a decision. And if they decide to pursue him, they should definitely go in there with some kind of limit, for what they can reasonably pay without hurting the team long term. Deciding they want to pursue him is one thing and its good, deciding to give him anything and everything he wants no matter what, is pretty dumb.
Theres not point of going in if they’re not gonna meet Boras’ demands. He’s gonan get them. To go in without being willing to meet the demands just helps his cause and hurts other organizations, and thus hurts the Mets. Thus, don’t go in at all.
Sorry, but I disagree. When’s the last time Boras got all of his demands? Or even the first number he floated?
Probably Arod’s last contract.
Beltran took less than he origianlly asked for.
Damon didn’t get anywhere near the contract Boras was touting.
Maddux had to take an arbitration deal from a shocked Braves team.
Millwood, after all five “mystery” teams suddenly vanished, had to take a one-year deal.
GM’s are hip to Boras’ act. They’re not going to just throw buckets of money at him — especially if the Yanks and Red Sox are both out. The reason it got so high last time is because knucklehead Hicks was bidding against himself. That certainly won’t happen again.
This is all speculation at this point. You think it’s goint to get to the 30, maybe even 35 mil stage. I don’t. I’d be surprised if he gets 30, unless it’s for a shorter amount of time.
My guess? 28mil for 7 years.
We shall see. But either way, it’s not set in stone he’s goint to get 300+ million.
zito’s contract came in much larger than had been speculated.
5 years $120M. Take or leave.
5 years $120M. Take or leave.
is that your negotiation for Johan in 2009 as well?
Im sure Johan will command more than that..
Johan is worth it. We need the pitching. We don’t need a drastically overpayed 3rd baseman. We have a drastically underpayed one who is at 80% of his production (speaking conservatively) and improving.
so do you go say.. 200 over 7 for Johan?
remember .. you’re negotiating against 7 or 8 teams.. full dog bidding war..
“so do you go say.. 200 over 7 for Johan?
remember .. you’re negotiating against 7 or 8 teams.. full dog bidding war..”
There should be more than one pitching free agent available in ‘09. What I would do is give each of them successively higher offers and as soon as one bites, the other offers are off the table.
If that’s what it takes, then yes. No holds barred for the ace. But it won’t take that much. 150 over 6 should do it.
Not having ARod’s salary to deal with gives me that much more freedom, and with these types of pitchers, every ounce of leverage counts.
I think the mets could go 6 years at 25 per and have A rod as well.. i’d be tight..7 years is tougher for a 30 year old pitcher.. be fair with that..
And realistically.. I think A rod gets 252 over 9 and goes to the mets for less coin
his 350 quote to the Yankees was a big slap in The Steinbrenner Gestapo’s Face .. and I loved it.
I truly believe he hated it there and loves the NY region. He’ll play first base and be a model citizen..
Boras is licking his chops for the Tex auction. A Rod is the set up for it.
Yes, the Mets can afford A-Rod. The question is whether they can afford A-Rod, Santana (or other elite starter), plus other quality players down the road while not becoming the Evil Empire II and exceeding the Luxury Tax? The answer is no. I’m working up a hypothetical 2009 LT payroll to demonstrate why and I’ll post it here later.
oh deary dear….we dont want to exceed the luxury tax….oh my!
VCarver, you’ve been hammering home this point for a while now. My queston is: Don’t you think the Mets FO — who actualy keep the books — know what they can and can’t afford?
If THEY think they can do it, why should you think differently?
It has very little to do with keeping the books. It has everything to do with simply adding up the dollars. I didn’t say they couldn’t afford him. I said they couldn”t afford him plus Santana plus quality players at other positions without becoming the Evil Empire II.
I think the FO would agree with that statement.
Obviously some fans don’t care if the Mets spend like the Yankees. But I do.
And, BTW, the Wilpons have rarely exceeded the LT. So if A-Rod comes aboard and they stick to that, then say goodbye to Santana even if he is a FA.
You are assuming that Santana/other elite pitcher becomes available, which is an uncertainty. There is no guarantee that we will even have a chance to acquire Johan…And if he is free, you can bet that the Yankees will go after him, and they will have a loooot more money than us (Giambi/Mussina off the books) to spend on him. The current trend has been to lock up such pitchers before they can be bought by other teams.
Picking up A-Rod now however will indirectly improve the starting pitching by giving them a bit more slack. Omar can then focus on fortifying the bullpen, where talent is available, and you don’t have to overpay as you would for a Carlos Silva..
Everyone against A-Rod uses the need for starting pitching as an argument. While I agree that pitching is definitely a bigg need, where exactly are we getting that pitching from?! The best hope to acquiring top pitcher is hoping that Humber/Pelfrey develop
I know what you said. But what I said is if they think they can do it, why should you think otherwise? I don’t doubt that you’re a smart guy, but do you really think you’re in a better position to decide what the Mets can and can’t afford than the FO?
And just because the Wilpons have never done it before, doesn’t mean they’ll never do it. Perhaps they’ve never come across the right player to do it for.
I was never married before until I met my wife.
I think the starting pitching gets better by default simply because you will have Pedro for the full year (knock on wood) and the kids Humber and Pelfrey have a year under their belt, Humber a year further away from his TJ surgery. Also, hopefully we will get Padilla and Sanchez back to fortify the bullpen.
But, I think the best reason to get A-Rod is if you are using one of our chips on the left side of the infield to get the ACE you are looking for.
I love how everyone uses the fact that the Yankees will go after Santana with more money as a reason we can’t sign him and should sign Arod. OBVIOUSLY the Yankees will have more money if we sign Arod. The point is, that if we realy think that he is the guy who will turn this team around (which there is much more data to back up than for Arod), then we should not go after Arod and save our money to go after Santana at all costs. If the Mets have the money to go after Arod they should save it for Santana.
If the Mets decide they can go after Arod and Santana with the largest contract offers, then great, I’m all for it. But there is absolutely no historical evidence in the Wilpon reign to support this. More likely, if they go after Arod fully, they will make a half-hearted attempt at Santana and will not sign him. Thus, I am not questioning their ability to decide what they cannot afford, but rather their ability to pick the best player for their team. Santana is the better option for this team.
Neither did the Mets have stadium naming rights income nor a regional sports network before. Increased revenue can afford us A-Rod, that’s what I think is being said here. VCarver, you’ve been slamming A-Rod since day one of us discussing the possibility of him coming over. You don’t want to spend like the Yankees? Don’t want to become Evil Empire II? Why?? Are you afraid that ticket prices will go up? Do you know what the difference between Yankee tickets and Mets tickets is? MINIMAL. I’d rather pay an extra $10-15 per game and come to the stadium knowing my team has a better chance of winning than losing. Yankees may be an evil empire and all, but they are ALWAYS in contention and ALWAYS in the playoffs. And no matter how “evil” they may be, their fan base currently exceeds the Mets fan base by a wide margin, little of which has to do with their historical figures and 26 world series titles, and much of which has to do with the fact that they put a quality product on the field day in, day out.
I’m not trying to say that the Mets cannot put a quality product on the field without A-Rod by any means, but your argument doesn’t make much sense here. I’ll bet that if you talk to the FO, he’ll tell you that the Mets can afford to have A-Rod, Santana, AND Teixeira in 2009 without losing ANY profits. Just do the math and see who’s coming off the books by then. Sure there are a lot of if’s or’s and but’s, however if you really think about it, A-Rod WILL make the Mets a better team, which will not necessarily provide more revenue for the Mets this year or next year, but down the road it will definitely prove to be a good business decision. I wouldn’t give A-Rod 10 years (and I don’t think any MLB team will) but I can see 8/250 being put on the table, of which 140 will be paid by Citi bank, so in reality the only change from the Mets of 2007 (without A-Rod and without Citi revenue) to the Mets of 2009 (with A-Rod and Citi revenue) will be 13.75 mil per year (which is what A-Rod’s contract will amount to) for the best player in the major leagues. I’m sure the FO will agree with that….
Maybe we should stop confusing everyone by using the word “afford.” Look, your math makes sense. However, this front office you talk about is not the one that has been running this team over the past 10 years. This team WILL have a budget, and I would be willing to bet that it is under the luxury cap, by a decent margin. There simply is no indication that the Mets will raise payroll by that much, regardless of whether or not they can afford it.
Magooley — see below for the numbers. They simply can’t fit A-Rod, Santana, plus quality players into their budget in the future without becoming like the Yankees.
zer09 — the more money the Mets make, the more of it goes into revenue sharing. So the profits are not as much as you think. And the issue is not really revenues or whether they can afford it or not. It’s whether or not they can sign A-Rod plus get the elite pitching they need plus quality players without becoming like the Yankees. I don’t think so.
Or, the Mets can buy one $20m/yr ace and one $10m/yr number 3 pitcher…
I think I prefer the pitching (if it’s available, of course).
It’s not available this year, that’s for sure. At least not without a trade.
” Omar Minaya does not think it is wise to sign a-rod,”
can omar actually be THAT stupid? we’ll see….
Hrm, bolster a position we need (SP)? or spend 350 million for a player we have no position for and shift our franchise players to unfamiliar positions. Tough decision….
hmmmm….acquire the best player in the mlb that benefits the team and peripherals more than any player on the planet? and dwright practices at 2B everyday….and said more than once that getting arod is a good move. hmmmmm….
I’ve seen this here before. How do you know D Wright is practicing at 2b every day? I’m not debating, just curious.
And perhaps more the point, why the hell was / is our young 3b who (gold glove aside) can’t throw the ball, taking so much practice at 2b instead of 3b? Perhaps more time at the hot corner could improve his throws…
I don’t think it’s a simple as that. There are NO legitimate ace pitchers on the market this year. There just aren’t. We could spend a boatload on marginal guys like Silva, but they aren’t really the answer.
Or, we could get a guy– while still at the top of his game– that is generally considered the best player in the sport — perhaps of his generation.
Would we have to move one of our conerstones to do it? Possibly. But that’s not without precident. Pujols has moved. Biggio has moved. Cabrera has moved. Rose moved. Yount moved. I’m not overly keen about possibly moving Wright to 2nd base because of the injury factors, but I’m sure he could handle 1st base just fine. And who knows, Arod might agree to play first and then the problem is solved.
I think the Mets are in a unique position this year — and perhaps this year only — with Arod. With the Yanks out of it, the Rangers out of it and most likely, the Red Sox out of it, I think we have a very good chance of landing him if we choose to. I know the Angels would like him, but I’m not sure they want to pay another player so much more than they are paying Vlad. The Dodgers would be the only other team I would be concerned with. We’ll see.
I agree I would like the pitching. But there’s none to be had. And I don’t believe we won’t be able to get it next year when it is available. Arod will certainly make the line-up stronger and after Delgado’s gone, we will need a middle-of-the-line-up prescence anyway. Let’s just get it this year, and next year we’ll get the stud pitcher. We’re going to need them both.
vcarver —
The question is whether they can afford A-Rod, Santana (or other elite starter), plus other quality players down
when we see your analysis, I hope your “other quality players down the road” doesn’t include Mark Tiexiera or another similar 20 million dollar projected player.
Otehrwise.. with the Mets cheap base controilled thru 2011 I think it all fits.
and remember your Definition of Evil Empire II is 20 – 30 million over the 162 million Luxury cap in 2009
While I’m not an advocate of getting A-Rod at the price Boras is demanding, I don’t know what would make the Mets more of an Evil Empire …. spending $175-$200M annually on payroll, or having that money through a new stadium, record ticket sales, a regional sports network and other avenues and NOT spending it. I could care less what our perception is to the rest of the league and how high our payroll is. As long as they are great quality players who fill our needs, what difference does it make? I’m going to have to pay premium dollar to keep up with this team in the near future anyway — I must as well get some bang for my buck.
exactly? Do you think Yankees fans feel bad that they had the highest payroll in baseball from 1996-2000? Do you think any of them are saying “yea, we won those 3 world series, but other teams and their fans really don’t like us. Man, I really wish the team would just spend a lot less money so we could become a mediocre franchise, that way other teams fans will like us again, and that way we can really get excited when the team makes a run for the playoffs once a decade or so!”
Seriously, I have NO problem with the Mets spending as much money as possible to win the World Series. I would LOVE for my team to be the “evil empire”….just once, I want to be the person rooting for the Yankees/Patriots/Lakers type team.
edit: 4 World Series, not 3.
I agree. I’m not advocating having a $250 million dollare payroll. However, I don’t think we should want for anything either. There is significant money coming off the books in the next few years. With our revenue streams as they are, I don’t want to hear that our budget won’t let us do this or that. I’m not saying we should go out and sign every big ticket free agent out there, but we should have no trouble spending for what we need.
While I can’t speak for everyone in the anti-A-Rod camp, I’m guessing many of those using payroll as a deterrent wouldn’t scoff at the idea of having Santana, Peavy and Sabathia all in our rotation in 2009. As far as I’m concerned, the Mets have the money for all these players. The question is A) are they willing to spend it (only they know that) and B) is who available help the team?
Let’s face the bottom line here — most people who don’t want A-Rod, don’t want the baggage but are afraid to use that as their sole-argument because the Fire Joe Morgan disciples and other around here will argue about A-Rod’s stats and WARP and so on. Personally, I don’t think any player is his 30s should get a 10-year deal, but even if Boras can be argued down to 8, I just don’t see a need for A-Rod unless they can move Delgado and A-Rod is willing to play first. Let the face of the franchise stay where he is and if A-Rod is so desperate for money and the spotlight, he’ll play wherever he’s needed to play.
It’s also a matter of opportunity cost.
Give a number X for the maximum amount of money you want the Mets to spend per year.
Is the team more effective with ARod eating up $30M or with others being payed reasonably close to their production value?
If you listen to Biggie, you’d think that there will never be another free agent, pitching or otherwise, as long as we all shall live, but non-sophists realize that this is not the case. There will be others available, if it’s not Santana it may be Peavy; if not Peavy then Tex, if not Tex, Orlando Hudson.
if you listen the Anti Arod Jihadists..
If we sign the best player available this year for 30 mil a year we will never have another opportunity to add another quality player to our team again.
And we will be resigned to a non competitive position until 2018
Its simply not true.
OBVIOUSL the Mets can afford ARod..they can afford 3 ARods…why must Freddie Coupons ALWAYS act like the Mets are a small market team? This team’s revenue streams have been SKYROCKETING and they are only going to get larger and larger with the new Stadium, SNY, etc…There is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON why the Mets cannot have a payroll in the 150 million plus range, or higher, if need be and if the right players are out there. The only team in all of MLB baseball that (arguably) should be able to outspend the Mets is the Yankees. The Angels, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, etc.- the Mets should be able to outspend any of these teams- but the question is if Freddie Coupons wants to open up the wallet. The time is come to have a bigger payroll and to step up and “godforbid” go over the luxury tax. I think it’s ridiculous how everyone perceives the Mets to be these “big spenders” because they went out and signed Beltran, Martinez, Wager, etc…- this is not true. The Mets did not significantly increase their payroll with these moves- they paired off other payroll in the process of adding Beltran, Martinez, etc., in order to keep the TOTAL payroll pretty much the same (aka 110-115 million)…and it remains at this level today- a level that is roughly HALF of what the Yankee payroll is…The time has come to have a payroll that is more than half of the Yankees, if we need it to be- and it needs to be more in order to add ARod. Plus you are losing Glavine’s salary this year, which is like 13 million. Seriously I am don’t want to hear one person tell me again that “The Mets might not be able to afford ARod.” That is absolute garbage- the Mets can afford to pay him 55 million per year if that’s what it takes, with their gigantic revenue streams- and so the question is not whether the Mets can “afford” ARod…it’s whether Freddie Coupons wants to open up his wallet and start acting like a big market team that should be able to outspend anybody for any player if they do indeed want that player. And you would think they would want to do something to get back in the good graces of fans like me who they lost after the collapse- to me, the worst part of the collapse was not the collapse in itself- the worst part was the fact that nobody was held accountable or lost their job for it. Absolutely inexcusable- no way Randolph or Peterson or Rickey Henderson, for God’s sake, should have a job! And signing Arod, honestly, is one of the only ways that this team can earn back my fandom.
See, now you had me at hello, and I fell in love at Freddie Coupons, but when you blame Ricky Henderson and Willie for the collapse … Well, I think we have grown apart and need space.
Though I agree that making a huge splash before Spring Training will go a long way to helping people forget the end of last season.
LOL
I agree that the Wilpons are extremely frustrating with how they spend money. However, this is not something that is going to be changed. I’m not arguing that Wilpson shouldnt’ open his wallet so that the Mets can sign Arod and Santana and other good pitchers. I’m not stupid enough to argue that I hope the Mets don’t become the Evil Empie II and go over the luxury tax. Of course I do. The Evil Empire wins a lot of the time.
However, this simply is not going to happen. Based on all of the evidence that we have from the Wilpon years, they are not simply suddenly going to tell Omar he can sign anyone at any price.
Given this payroll budget, I would rather the Mets not sign Arod. The Mets have many pressing needs, such as an ace, and a bullpen. In a recent poll on Metsblog, about almost 90% of readers said that these were the Mets pressing issues.
Given that, I don’t understand how 50% of the same people could say that the Mets should sign Arod, when all signs point to this being the only big move the Mets would make. It’s simply not realistic to think that they money would still be there after spending the money on Arod.
Just because an ace is not availible at this instance is no reason to sign a player who in all likelihood would prevent us from acquiring that ace at any point over the next five years. If the Mets have a fixed amount of money to spend on players, which they always have in the past, this does not mean they must spend it immediately on the best player availible now. They can wait, so that when the player who best helps this team becomes availible, they can pounce.
I hope as much as anyone that the Wilpons open their wallets. I would love for the Mets to sign Arod, Santana, Torii Hunter and Francisco Cordero.
But, in the real world, this isn’t going to happen. Thus, in the real world, it just does not make sense for the Mets to spend their money on Arod.
However, this simply is not going to happen. Based on all of the evidence that we have from the Wilpon years, they are not simply suddenly going to tell Omar he can sign anyone at any price.
I think you are confusing the Omar Minaya led NY Mets with the Steve Phillips and Jimmy Duquette led NY Mets.
Clearly Wilpon trusts Omar more than the past group of clowns that have run this organization.
Right, which is why I think he’d be able to spend $30 million on Arod, or $25 on Santana. But there’s still a budget.
Nope, I think the reason Wilpon was cheap in the beginning was because he owed Nelson Doubleday and had to pay him off, leaving him less money for payroll. After that he tied his money up in getting SNY off the ground, and breaking ground at CitiField.
But, now with all those components out of the way, he needs to improve his product to sell airtime on his new network and to put fannies in his new luxury boxes.
Also, figuring the raises for current Mets next year = 15 mil (MetsGeek’s estimate), the current salary according to ESPN is 116, and the salaries dumped (including C & 2B) = 36 mil, the Mets payroll before anymore signings will be at $95 million!!! Alot to you and me, but not much when the Yankees are usually sitting at more than double that.
So the money is there, but more importantly the PROFIT MARGIN is there.
a few people have mentioned that they didn’t want the mets to be the “evil empire 2.” that title has already gone to the world series champion (again) boston red sox.
i’d be glad to call the mets the evil empire 3
How? Their LT payroll is under or just slightly over the LT threshold. The Yankees spend $70-80 million more in payroll. So how are the Red Sox being the Evil Empire?
$143m+ payroll this year for the sox more than the bottom 4 teams combined. $50m+ to talk to dice-k. they have the only $20m-a-year player under contract: manny. he is also the only player other than a-rod to receive a $20m+ per year contract over 5+ years.
they have been #2 in payroll for the last 4 year spending $20m+ more than the wealthy mets.
it’s not just about luxury tax.
by only $20m dollar player i mean life of contract not just 1 season
The Red Sox’ actual payroll is just $27 mill more than the Mets this year. Their LT payroll is actually almost equal to the Mets. So if the Red Sox are the Evil Empire, then the Mets must already be as well. Right?
The Mets were also about to spend $40 million just to talk to Matsuzaka. The Red Sox are much closer to the Mets in their spending than they are to the Yankees. It’s a fact.
If you want to call them the Evil Empire OK. But then the Mets are also the Evil Empire too. .
“just $27m more than the Mets.” is that it? that’s a lot of money, no? 11 teams are below $70m total payroll. in fact, that # is about enough to sign a-rod or a top-level starter next year.
it’s also a fact that when the yankees won their 4 world titles from 1996-2000 that their payroll wasn’t anywhere near where it has been since. it was a few million more than the closest team. in 1998, the yanks were #2 in payroll.
how can the yanks be the evil empire if when they were winning world series they were basically spending the same as the rest of the top 10 teams?
you can argue that the red sox titles are more tainted by the crazy payroll differences of the last 5 years.
i’m okay with the mets being evil. as long as they win championships. they can’t be evil. they haven’t won anything.
The Yankees have had the highest payroll in the majors every year since 1996 except for that one year.
But regardless, they didn’t get their name “Evil Empire” until after 2000 when their payroll started exceeding its closest competitors by huge amounts. That’s when they got their name. And that’s what it means to be the Evil Empire.
And you really have to use the Luxury Tax payrolls to compare teams because the Mets have a lot of backloaded contracts whereas the Red Sox don’t. If you look at their average annual salaries, the Mets and Red Sox payrolls are extremely close. Less than $10 mill difference.
Evil Empire doesn’t mean winning titles. The Marlins and White Sox certainly weren’t evil. Evil Empire means bloated payrolls that exceed your closest competitor by leaps and bounds. That describes the Yankees. It does not describe the Red Sox. It means buying titles.
“Evil Empire doesn’t mean winning titles.”
“It means buying titles.”
you contridicted yourself.
Evil Empire definately is tied to winning world series titles. Who cares if you spend $200m on payroll then lose? Are the Knicks the Evil Empire?
the yankees haven’t bought a title per se. not based on their payroll from 1996-2000 when it was similar to the other top 10 teams.
the wilpons could have spent like the yanks over the years. they chose not to. that’s their right since they bought the mets. unfortunately.
you contridicted yourself.
Evil Empire definately is tied to winning world series titles. Who cares if you spend $200m on payroll then lose? Are the Knicks the Evil Empire?
How? Winning titles when you don’t outspend all your competitors is not being an Evil Empire. If that were the case the Marlins would be one. But when you continually outspend every single one of your competitors by a significant margin to gain a competitive advantage and then win them, of course you’re going to be accused of buying them. Because it remains to be seen if that team can win them otherwise.
And no, Evil Empire is not tied to winning world series titles. Maybe if you want to say it’s tied to the attempt to win them, OK. But the mere act of winning them does not make one an Evil Empire.
In case you don’t know, the term was first used to describe the Yankees by the new Red Sox owners after 2000! And it was used solely in relation to the Yankees throwing around their money to outbid everyone else. It had nothing to do with actually winning a title. Just their attempt to do so.
the yankees haven’t bought a title per se. not based on their payroll from 1996-2000 when it was similar to the other top 10 teams.
Actually, it depends on how you interpret “similar.” Their payrolls were usually at least 10% higher than the next closest team in their league. In 2000 it was 12% higher. A case can be made that they bought that title in 2000.
And when you think about it, the Red Sox won 2 titles despite their closest competitor spending tremendously more than they did. The Yankees can’t say this about their recent titles.
Division titles. LCS titles. They still get accused of buying everything because their payroll towers over everyone else’s.
the other thing regarding this mythical “Elite Pitcher” we MUST have in 2009..
1 – Pedro says he’s coming back after his contract.. certainly he’ll sign back on for less than 10 mil like Schil and be the crafty playoff pitcher we missed in 2006
2. Ollie has a crush on Rick P. and Omar for turning his game around, while he is FA in 09 .. why wouldnt he sign here for a discount.. he’s clearly a gamer based on 06
3. Maine COULD BE That Ace in the Hole.. IF his career continues to progress and he may throw 210 innings next year with say 17 Wins.. no doubt he can pitch in the post season
4. Humber? The guy was a #3 draft pick.. Im sure he’ll be a factor in 08 and is on the upside of his career..
5. ? Say we get Arod..I would think we’d wheel DelGado and/or Milledge for a quality arm..(Come on AJ Burnett?)
6. Pelf.. I havent lost hope yet for his 97 MPH Fastball.. Guy seems coachable and certainly has potential.
7. Dozens of other mid level starters out there to fill out the rotation and eat innings..
So unless someone has a man-crush on a 30 year old Johan Santana and needs him in flushing.. I see no reason why the Mets cant have a quality staff in 2009.. Considering with A Rod they’ll be putting up 950+ Runs per Year.
Maine is always left out of the Ace conversation. He has consistently improved over the last couple of years and has shown the ability to go further in games, and longer in the season before tiring out. I’d love to see him become a top 10 pitcher in MLB.
Humber was a #3 as you mentioned and is coming off his 2nd year from Tmmy John, which is the make or break year for a pitcher. The only exception to the 2 year rule was John Smoltz who was unhittible the year after coming back. I would hope this year he can develop.
Lastly, who is going to take Delgado at this point? A 35 year old at the end of his career who can’t keep up with fastballs anymore, and couldnt hit a curveball for his life. I really can’t think of many teams that would go for him. If anything we’d have to dump him for mid-level prospects, or trade him to a contender who needs a middle of the lineup lefty.
Lastly, who is going to take Delgado at this point?
someone in the AL to play DH and 1B.
he had a good experience in Toronto.. and they have a potential Ace who makes decent $$, can opt out after next year and could use a session with Professor Rick.
.. oh.. his name is AJ Burnett and he was originally drafted by the Mets and given to FLA for Senator Al Leiter
I contend that if the Mets add A-Rod, plus Santana, plus quality players at other positions, then in 2009, there will be no way they can avoid becoming like the Evil Empire II. They will be worse than the Red Sox (depending of course on whether Henry goes wild with the $$ or not).
Below is a projected 2009 Luxury Tax payroll that demonstrates why. Including salaries for A-Rod, Santana, committed contracts, and money for equivalent replacements for the type of players the Mets had this year, this projected 2009 LT payroll comes to $183.43 million and exceeds the threshold of $162 million by 21.36 million. When you add in money for mid-season improvements which all teams like to include in their budget, you’re talking an additional $5 to $10 million or more. With this mid-season expense, say $10 million, you’re talking about exceeding the threshold by $31 million.
5.81 — Reyes
5.00 – (2nd base)
9.17 — Wright
32.00 — A-Rod
17.00 — Beltran
10.00 – (LF)
0.40 — Milledge
6.00 – (catcher)
25.00 — Santana
13.25 – Martinez (or equivalent)
8.00 — Perez
5.00 — Maine
1.31 — Pelfrey
10.75 — Wagner
2.00 — Heilman
1.85 — Sanchez
0.85 — J. Smith
2.00 — Feliciano
1.00 – (Mota)
3.60 — Schoeneweis
1.00 — Sele
1.25 — Sosa
1.25 — Williams
0.40 — Vargas
0.40 — Muniz
0.40 — Collazo
0.84 — Humber
0.40 — Padilla
1.73 — Chavez
1.10 — Franco
1.00 — Castro
1.10 — M. Anderson
0.95 — Easley
0.40 — C. Gomez
0.40 — Hernandez, A
0.40 — Gotay
0.40 — DiFelice
0.40 — Alomar
0.40 — B. Johnson
0.60 — Newhan
8.55 — Benefits
Total Projected 2009 LT Payroll 183.35 million (193.35 with $10 million added for mid-season additions)
Some of you don’t mind spending like the Yankees. Or being told by other fans how “your team buys titles.” But I don’t want to become like the Yankees. And as I said, the Wilpons have shown no inclination in the past to exceed the luxury tax. So it’s questionable whether they would ever spend the money it would take to add Santana if they already had A-Rod.
What are benefits? I have your numbers projecting out to 174 million and some of your figures are off. Franco is off the team, LF at 10 mil, we have Alou at 7.5. And unless we get Posada/Lo Duca, I don’t envision us spending 6 mil on another catcher. I think 165 to 168 mil is more reasonable and completely doable and might I add even necessary giving our competition in NY.
This isn’t a small market town guys.
The Luxury Tax payroll includes benefits for ALL Teams. I got the figures from here:
http://russells.freeshell.org/ddollars/team.php?team=mets&name=Mets
Note that the owner of this site has not updated it for about a year.
The LT is based on the 40-man roster. If you have Franco off the team, then you’re going to have an equivalent player to replace him. It doesn’t matter who it is. Just put in any name.
Ditto for Alou. You’re going to need someone to replace him in ‘09. I don’t want to cheap out at that position either.
And who are the Mets going to get for catcher?? Name someone. He won’t come for free.
Castro, Defelice.
Oh wait you already have them on the list.
BTW, LoDuca was hurt and not that good as a result, Castro was great when he played and Defelice was servicable. The catcher’s spot did not kill us. Starting pitching did. Why do we need to spend 6 mil on a Catcher?
In fact you want to spend 30 mil on LF, C and a #2, but don’t want to spend 55 on the #1 pitcher and #1 hitter in ALL OF BASEBALL!!!!! Hello!
I must be missing something here.
This year, Castro, LoDuca, DiFelice, and Alomar will ALL count toward the Mets’ LT payroll. That’s how it works. Anyone who was on the 40-man roster is included.
I’m not advocating any particular catcher for 2009. I am merely giving projected expenses for the team based on the players and expenses they had this year.
I highly doubt they will cheap out on all the catchers for 2009. In fact, they may be inclined to spend more than what I listed. What happens if they trade for Ramon Hernandez? Well he makes more than $6 million a year.
And no, you have my priorities wrong. I absolutely want to spend for Santana. What I don’t want to do is spend on A-Rod because I doubt the Wilpons will then agree to go crazy on Santana for the reasons I listed here.
am I missing something? Franco 1.10???
Yes, you are missing something. You neglected to read my entire post. If you did you would know that I was using the 2007 payroll to fill in the blanks for the projected 2009 LT payroll. They will have equivalent players in 2009, of course, meaning a bench player or players with roughly the same salaries.
I am not saying Franco will be on the team in 2009.
i just realized…I’m gonna save myself a lot of stupid arguments and just stop paying attention to VCarver
Pretty good summary. I think a couple of your numbers are a little off, Wright will make 7.5 in 09, I can’t see Pedro getting more than his 08 base salary, possibly with incentives, 10 for a LF with that lineup is a little shaky but your 2B and C are a tad lower than what I would expect so it evens out, and a couple of the bench guys will either not come back or making a bit more than I think, unless you were just using it as comparison for the future.
Either way, I think it’s a valid point you are making, but my biggest problem is the expectation of Santana hitting the open market. J
ust a idea on my part:
Alright, here’s my absolute worse case scenario of 09. In 08, we essentially go with the same guys. Bring back Lo Duca and Castro for 2 years each, probably 6 mil per combined. Castillo for 2-3 years for 5 per, which is what his last year was. Pitching wise, we add a David Riske or a decent MR guy, 2-3 years 3-4 per. SP, we take a chance on someone, probably Jennings, 4-5 mil with a club option.
So 09, we have holes at 1B, LF, SP. Tex gets signed by Atlanta, Yankees, or Baltimore. Santana sticks with the Twins or is dealt to the Yankees, who can offer far more than us, along with 4-5 other teams. Sabethia stays in Cleveland as they win another Div title in 08. Peavy remains in plush SD. Pedro decides to walk or retire. Suddenly, the best SP available is probably Burnett, followed by Looper, Sheets, and Garland. LF, we are looking at Dunn, Abreu, Pat Burrel. 1B is where it gets really exciting, as we might have a shot at Giambi, Sexson, or Nomar. I guess we go with a Gomez in LF, hope Mulvey is ready to fill those 3 rotation slots with Humber/Pelfrey/etc all, and Carp at 1B?
So we would be looking at a lineup of:
Reyes
Castillo
Wright
Beltran
Milledge
Gomez
Lo Duca/Castro
Carp
Maine
Perez
Pelfrey
Humber
Mulvey
Obviously this is worst case, but my point is this: They can’t make moves this year based off what they hope will happen next year. If they decide to pass on A-Rod, realize Silva isn’t worth the 14 mil, and pretty much say, well 07 was a fluke, same guys different year, if things fall in the wrong place, this team could just fall into suck-ville yet again.
Creating a lineup based off free agency is going to become more and more difficult. Teams aren’t going to be releasing those aces or stud position players into free agency anymore, everything is so over-analyzed now you are going to have to trade for a guy or have to pay him 4x his actual value to get him on the market.
What if Santana actually hits the market, but the price for him rises to 30-35 mil per, as every team on the planet would want him. Would the Mets pass if it brought them into the LT zone in the near future?
This was a pretty long rant, but I just wanted to make some points. I said this before, but I’ll make the same point again: Back in 2000, the Mets were coming off 2 pretty successful years that both ended in pretty disappointing fashion, however the talent was there and most people felt like with 1-2 guys this team could pretty much be the elite NL team and dominate like they did in 80’s. However, rather then going after the big name and making him fit, maybe overshadowing Piazza, moving some guys around, etc, they went after guys who had upside, could bounce back from a injury, or were low risk-high reward. Back to today, they want to pass again on the big name because it doesn’t automatically fit the team, don’t want to step on Wright/Pedro/etc, the current stars, and are looking at a 2B coming off knee surgery, a couple of oft-injured catchers, and Jason Jennings or Carlos Silva. Seems pretty parallel to me.
RT, the Luxury Tax payroll is based on a player’s average annual salary (the guaranteed portion). For Wright, the number I have here is correct.
i disagree with a fgew of your asumptions
1. — 10 mil for left
2. — 5 mil for 2B
3. — Franco, Sele, Williams and Sosa
4. — Martinez at 13.5 (s/b 8 like your boy Schill)
thats 25 mil right there.. and ive been chasing the dogs around the woods for an hour so i havent looked too closely
But of course adding 57 mil in Salary to the 2007 payroll will put the LT payroll over 160 mil
There are other moves that could be made in 08 (i know you hate to hear about 08) that would reallocate salaries..
Most of these other commenters are on it though..
1 – they pay 7.5 mill now. Why do you think it will be cheaper in 2 years? Who do you propose they put in LF in ‘09?
2 – Who is going to play at 2b? 5 mil is cheap. If they sign Castillo, it will be about 5 mill or more.
3 – What do you disagree with about Williams, Sele, Franco and Sosa? You do realize I am not advocating them for the team in 2009. I am just saying they will have costs equivalent to the players they had in 2007.
4 — Schill’s contract is actually worth $13 mill with incentives. But the fact is Marinez is younger than Schill and will probably pitch more innings than him in 2008. He will therefore command a higher salary. And if it isn’t Pedro,it might be one of the other starters on the market who will cost a lot.
Sure you can shave 25 mill or more by going el cheapo — but as I said that’s exactly why signing A-Rod is a bad idea. Because you have to go dirt cheap in positions where they spend now. I don’t ‘want to do that. If you do that’s our choice. I don’t. And I’ve always been specific about that.
And why are you talking about the 2007 payroll? This is NOT about the 2007 payroll.
My payroll was already low in many areas. if you think it could be lower be specific. Where would you cut and how? Who would you put in their place? I’ll believe it when I see it.
Bringing on Arod allows the Mets to spend LESS At other positions.. its not being “El Cheapo” — its allocating resources.. getting Arod doesnt happen in a vacuum.
And why are you talking about the 2007 payroll? This is NOT about the 2007 payroll..
you are basing your assumptions off the 2007 payroll..
you are basing your assumptions off the 2007 payroll..
Right. And at almost every position, it’s a barebones salary or modest one. And where it’s not, you are advocating going cheap. Minimum salary. Scrubs.
What you advocate is junk or inexperience at almost every position that isn’t committed for ‘09. No thanks. That’s exactly why I said A-Rod + Santana + “quality” players at other positions won’t fit into a reasonable payroll.
You have proven my point.
Whether we pay A-Rod 30 mil a year or not, someone will. This will change the market in such a way that 3 years from now, $22m average salaries will be commonplace for players of far less value than A-Rod. Sooner or later the team will have to be paying one or likely more of these players to play for them. For the extra money, you might as well have the best player in the game.
Yup, because soon after Manny and A-Rod signed their 20+ million multi-year contracts everyone was getting them. Right? :roll:
I didn’t say 30m. I said 20. When A-Rod and Manny got 20m per, all of a sudden players who would have gotten only 7-10m were now getting 10-14m. :roll:
Like who?
And the fact is, since Manny and A-Rod, not 1 player has signed a multi-year deal for over $20 mill a year.
Thankfully their contracts did not distort the salaries in the broader marketplace.
Oh and by the way, in 1998 Sheffield and Albert Belle were the first players to crack 10m. Care to take a guess how many players were making 10m+ three years later?
But we’re not talking about $10 million salaries. We’re talking about outrageous salaries of $25+ million. I’m sure Sheff’s salary at that time was much closer to prevailing ones than A-Rod’s $250 million contract was.
Sheffield $14,936,667
Next highest – Maddux $9,600,000
1.5x
Uh, no. Sheffield’s average annual salary from ‘98 to ‘03 was just 10.15 million.
Nice try.
Stop the idiocy about payroll. People who think the Mets aren’t/won’t spend money don’t pay attention. Revenue is rising incredibly fast (as noted above) and ever since Doubleday convinced Wilpon to go for Piazza, Wilpon has spent $$$$.
Too often the Mets have spent money poorly but they have spent money. Teams like the Orioles and Dodgers also have spent money poorly.
Fact: The Mets have the highest payroll in the NL and #3 in MLB.
Fact: The Mets made the second highest bid on Dice-K ($36M that when taken with his likely annual salary) would have increased outlays for payroll by $18-20M last year
Fact: The Mets outbid all team for Beltran, Martinez, and Delgado (he signed with Florida for less $$$)
Now that “the Boss” is no longer calling the shots, it’s unlikely ANY team will exceed the luxury tax. It’s designed to be a punishment to a francise. The Mets will consistently spend “up to the tax.” Spending more is bad business.
I’m willing to be called the “Evil Empire II” so long as I can attend the parade again (’86 Mets were universally hated but I loved them).
DOING SANTANA AND AROD FOR UNDER LUXURY TAX IN 2009
Regular Position PLayers (8) $ 71.03 mil
5.81 — Reyes SS
0.65 — Gotay 2B
9.17 — Wright 3B
32.00 — A-Rod 1B
17.00 — Beltran CF
0.70 — C. Gomez LF
0.70 — Milledge RF
5.00 – LoDuca C
Starting Pitchers (5) $ 47.81 mil
25.00 — Santana
10.5 – Martinez
8.00 — Perez
3.00 — Maine
1.31 — Pelfrey
Relief Pitchers (7) $ 21.54 mil
10.75 — Wagner
3.60 — Schoeneweis
2.00 — Feliciano
2.00 — Heilman
1.50 — Sanchez
0.85 — J. Smith
0.84 — Humber
Bench (5) $5.38 mil
1.73 — Chavez
1.00 — Castro
1.10 — M. Anderson
0.95 — Easley
0.60 — Newhan
40 Man Fodder (15) $6.0 mil
0.40 — 40 Man PLayer
0.40 — 40 Man PLayer
0.40 — 40 Man PLayer
0.40 — 40 Man PLayer
0.40 – 40 Man PLayer
0.40 – 40 Man PLayer
0.40 – 40 Man PLayer
0.40 – 40 Man PLayer
0.40 – 40 Man PLayer
0.40 — 40 Man Player
0.40 — 40 Man Player
0.40 — 40 Man Player
0.40 — 40 Man Player
0.40 — 40 Man Player
8.55 — Benefits
total LT payroll 160.31
LUXURY TAX 162 mil
1 — If a player gets hurt, then there is no room in your budget to trade for an experienced player to take his place.
2 — There is no room in that budget to acquire trade deadline players to help down the stretch.
3 — Your allocation for the rotation is especially cheap. They are not going to be able to build a championship caliber pitching staff by limiting their #2 pitcher to 10.5 mill. I doubt Pedro will even go for that.
4 — You’re spending even less on catching than they did this year. Again, cheaping out.
5 — The idea that a team can realistically fill out the rest of its 40-man roster with all players at minimum wage is preposterous. The Mets have never done this in their history. I don’t think any team has ever done this in its history including the barebones TB Devil Rays. Omar would probably have to raid the roster of the LI Ducks to do something like that.
6 — You proved my point that the Mets can’t get A-Rod + Santana + quality players at other positions where they have them now, and still remain close to the LT threshold. It’s like overspending lavishly for dinner at a fancy restaurant and then cheaping out at McDonalds the rest of the week because you’ve overspent for one meal.
That’s a terrible way to build a team. No thanks.
1. That was not a requirement of the hypothetical
2.That was not a requirement of the hypothetical
3. 10.5 vs your 13.5 for pedro .pedro is a term player and will sign up for less.. and I think 3 mil is a more likely number for Maine in 2009.
4. loduca has said in public he will accept less than he made in 2007 .. i signed him 2 yr 10 mm contract based on that
5. the 2007 40 man roster – your base for the hypothetical – had 15 minimum compensation players.. so does the 2009
6. its building a team to win a championship in 2009 based on your theoretical team with Santana and Arod and staying under the cap.. Its just as valid as yours.. except it doesn’t prove YOUR point.. I have confidence that Gomez will be a player in 2009 otherwise he wouldnt be on the team.
That’s a terrible way to build a team. No thanks.
says you.. its a hypothetical . you CAN add Santana and Arod and vbe under the Cap AND Compete for a championship.
News says Donald Trump is buying the Cubs, sure wish he would buy the Mets!
1. Yes it was. I put it in my hypothetical payroll
2. Again, read my entire post of my hypothetical 2009 LT payroll. And in the previous thread where I laid out parameters, one of them was to base the 2009 LT payroll on expenditures for the “same players they had in 2007″ (with arbitration and FA considerations thrown in). That would include additional players added throughout the year like Marlon and Conine whose salaries were in addition to players like Franco who they still had to pay. Not instead of.
3. What is a term player? And no, I don’t believe Pedro will sign for less. Especially if he has a good 2008. And if they don’t sign Pedro, 10.5 won’t get you much on the FA market when they try to replace him.
4. You can’t assume they are going to even bring back LoDuca. Again, my parameters included allocating at least as much money as they spent on equivalent players in 2007.
5. No. It had 11 minimum salaried players. And by the way I had to guess at a few of these – like Alomar and Difelice — and I’m sure out of those I had to guess at, some of them made more than minimum. So I suspect it’s even less.
6. No. It’s not using my theoretical team. It’s a cheaped out bargain bin version of my theoretical team. With absolutely no leeway to add additional parts for a pennant drive. And you cut corners drastically at both 2nd base, LF and the #2 starter as well as some of the reserves
It may be valid to you. But not to me. And yes, it does prove my point. The only way you could do it was to cut corners on positons where they spent in 2007, while leaving no room in the budget for emergencies and mid-season improvements. And I’ve always been clear that one of the parameters was being able to maintain the quality that they had on their team in 2007.
I like Gomez a lot and actually want him to get a chance in 2008. But if he doesn’t pan out, then there’s no room in your budget to get anyone else. I guess it’s back to Ricky Ledee.
You have failed to show how you can get A-Rod, Santana, plus the same level of additional talent they had this year, while remaining under the threshold.
base the 2009 LT payroll on expenditures for the “same players they had in 2007″
thats silly.. they wont have to spend the same for players in 2009 as 2007 with A rod.. thats just not even close to reality.
thats why you cant just “Skip” 2008
Getting A Rod enables other moves that are not possible without having such a dominant bat in the middle of the lineup..It also allows up to use our top prospects in our lineup and not have the pressure on them to lead the team — just be complimentary players.
You just have a closed mind programmed to say to “Dont get A Rod.. Get Santana in 2009″ that you fail to recognize we are not doomed to have the same group of entitled, bored players that failed to perform in 2007.
A rod is not the ONLY move .. it is the FIRST move.
thats OK .. you’re entitled to your opinion. but just because you keep typing it doesn’t make it right/.
they wont have to spend the same for players in 2009 as 2007 with A rod.. thats just not even close to reality.
They may have to spend more! … If they trade for Ramon Hernandez, for example, he actually costs more than what Loduca did. A-Rod’s presence does not mean you need a strong catcher any less or a strong #2 pitcher any less.
There is no reality yet for 2009. It’s in the future. The point is you’re cutting corners on other areas of the team to fit both A-Rod and Santana in.
thats why you cant just “Skip” 2008
I don’t see how 2008 will make a difference. If you think it will, then don’t skip it. Do up a 2008 LT payroll. Or at least explain why you think it will make a difference. Tell us.
Getting A Rod enables other moves that are not possible without having such a dominant bat in the middle of the lineup..
So… what are they???? Lets see if they make any sense.
It also allows up to use our top prospects in our lineup and not have the pressure on them to lead the team — just be complimentary players.
Oh? There will be no pressure on Gotay and Gomez? They can just be black holes offensively in the lineup and Mets fans will be OK with it? I doubt it. And what about defense? You get a second baseman for more than offense. As well as a catcher. And is A-Rod going to pitch too in case Pedro won’t come back for just $10.5?
you fail to recognize we are not doomed to have the same group of entitled, bored players that failed to perform in 2007.
Who says they are doomed? It is you, lol, who thinks so. And I think you fail to realize Delgado will not be easy to move for 2008 without eating up about $8 million of his salary. You think the Wilpons will let Omar do that?
A rod is not the ONLY move .. it is the FIRST move.
Oh, and I suppose the second move is eating that $8 mill so they can dump Delgado? Brilliant! But that still doesn’t solve 2009 and beyond.
but just because you keep typing it doesn’t make it right
Yeah. Same with you too.
Ramon Hernandez is an $8 player in 2009 . I dont think he comes here..If you think he does whats the Deal?
LoDuca has publically said he will come to NY for less than the 6.X he made in 2007 .. why is it unrealistic that he accepts 10 mil for 2 years?..
They can just be black holes offensively in the lineup and Mets fans will be OK with it?
remember we are talking about 2009 which is a FULL Season from now… IF Gomex is not ready in 2009 after playing in the ML in 2007 then when will he be? do you Suggest he sit in the minors while your mythical 10 million dollar left fielder plays?
Same with Gotay and Hernandez.. neither should be “black holes” in 2009 ..18 months from now..
Delgado can be moved.. there are plenty of AL teams that could use a man of his skills.. and if Omar is as creative as he has shown it wont cost much..
For instance.,. Why cant we move him to Toronto where he LOVED playing? include Heilman .as well. and maybe get back AJ Burnett and some prospect if it matches.. or include a prospect on our side.. the $$ is a close match and Burnett has certainly worn out his welcome in canada.. and can opt out in 2009..
But if we do that we dont need your savior Johan.. so you’ll poo poo it… but Burnett is on your list of Elite pitchers available in 2009..
Im sure there are other matches.. point is none of this is possible with out adding Arod.
If we get Arod maybe we can package Milledge and some other pieces to the A’s for an innings eater that can help in 2008 .. but who cares about 2008.. the goal is to get Johan in 2009.. i forgot.
The orioles may be looking to dump RH. and so he may come cheaply. It doesn’t matter what LoDuca says or is willing to do. We keep hearing that they may be reluctant to bring him back because of issues with his temper and the way he works with the pitchers.
IF Gomex is not ready in 2009 after playing in the ML in 2007 then when will he be? do you Suggest he sit in the minors while your mythical 10 million dollar left fielder plays?
Huh? That made no sense at all. Why would playing in 2007 be relevant to his readiness to play in 2009? Especially when his 2007 season was cut short by injury? If he struggles in 2008 then he definitely should be sent down to the minors. Not to sit. But to play. And no. I do not want a mythical leftfielder. I would like a real one, thank you.
As for Gotay and AH, why do you think just playing 1 year in the majors will result in success? That’s another bizarre thought of yours. If they fail, the mets might need to get costlier replacements.
Sure Delgado can be moved. If you eat plenty of his salary. It’s amazing how the A-Rod fanboys gloss over inconvenient details.
I don’t think where Delgado likes playing is the issue. The issue is whether any GM will like him for their team. I can’t see it for anything more than $10 million dollars. So the question still remains — who’s going to eat that salary?????
And Burnett isn’t being shopped. Ricciardi just clarified that today. They can get him for just money when he opts out. And if they don’t waste their money on A-Rod, they could afford BOTH Santana and Burnett.
The problem is, trading Delgado just isn’t a very plausible scenario.
And if they package Milledge, who’s going to play RF in 2008?
You still haven’t been able to show how there are things that can be done in 2008 that will solve issues with 2009.
There are 2 things wrong with Biggie’s projections.
1.) It assumes the Mets will go with Gomez, Milledge, Gotay, and LoDuca, when in reality three of the four could suck. LoDuca will almost definitely suck in 2 years, Milz will almost definitely not suck and the rest are up in the air.
2) It is totally preposterous to think that your no. 2 man and Pedro’s replacement will only make $10M and that Perez will sign for $8M in ‘09. If Perez can be signed in ‘09 for $8M, that means that he must have sucked so ferociously in ‘08 that he’s not worth keeping.
You are really looking at Santana (or equvalent) making $25M, Ollie making at least $15M, Maine making $3M, and Pelfrey and Humber rounding out the rotation. This leaves now 2 pitching question marks in addition to 3 hitting question marks.
(And I’m being generous; many still call Ollie a question mark, inexplicably.)
So add another question mark or add another $15M each for
-a real no. 2 pitcher
-a real second baseman -should we need one
-a real left fielder – should we need one.
That’s a legit shot at a $205M payroll folks. Welcome to Yankeeland.
1) If the team had A-Rod, I’m sure you could go with those 4 guys and still have a above average offense. I agree with your Milledge and Lo Duca projections, but as long as Gotay/Gomez could hit .275 or better, I don’t see why they couldn’t be effective as 6/7/8 hitters.
2) What’s stopping them from giving Perez a 3-4 year deal right now and avoiding arbitration? He had a good year, but his bad ones have been recent. I could see him getting 3yrs/21 mil this offseason, probably even less. It’s less than market value but how many teams would have given this guy a shot 2 years ago? You have to think he feels as if he owes the team and coaches a little bit.
Also, a real #2 pitcher? Look how Perez and Maine compare to the rest of the NL. They are top 15 in a majority of the meaningful pitching stats, ERA, WHIP, etc. Neither of these guys are aces, but people need to give credit where credit is due.
I agree with people not giving credit to our aces. See my next post. I love Maine and Perez. I was just referring to Boras’ guerilla marketer and chief’s mythical $10M no.2 starter. We crossed that bridge a while ago.
Perez will be a free agent after next season. You think he will forgo that opportunity to sign for $7 mill a year? I highly doubt it.
Why wouldn’t you want two #1 pitchers actually? Get the best you can. It’s pitching that wins in the postseason. That’s not the place to cut corners. And god knows A-Rod certainly isn’t the key to postseason glory.
You think he will forgo that opportunity to sign for $7 mill a year? I
why not? according to you the only person that goes for the most money is A rod.
I never said that. If you think I did, give the exact quote and the link.
I may have double counted Pedro’s 10 million. Make it $190M. What’s $15M between fans?
Also note that the only reason why the Mets can even begin to think of going this route is that somehow, the Mets got young and very inexpensive and talented pitching in John Maine and Ollie Perez, and also got Reyes and Wright to sign for waaay below market value, and have young talent in Milledge. If Omar hadn’t made one bonehead move, we would also have a young and inexpensive Keppinger (perfect #2 hitter) and we would not even be talking about ARod.
What would we have done if Biggie were running the team? Would we be overflowing with deadweight contract and prima-donnas?
Think of what got us to the point where we can afford even a Santana to complete the team , much less an ARod and Santana.
1 – who do you offer instead? they COULD suck too. Gotay or Hernendez wont be relied upon for offence.. Gomez can play D fense and steam 40 bases and hit 240 for all i care.. and L Duca will just handle the pitchers like he’s done before.. who is your alternative?
With Arod in the lineup we can afford to have defensive players at 2nd and left field.
2. Pedro is set to make 11M in 2008 .. he wants to come back in 2009.. assuming we make a strong run.. or even — heaven forbid — WIN in 2008.. he will most certainly come back for a discount.. or a 10 mil payday/./ look at Schiling ..
Perez will sign with us because he loves RP & NY and wants to win.. besides your bud VCARVER gave him 8 mil as well..
take another look at your next point and tell me what you are missing? initials are PM.
DOnt you anti-arod jihadists realize that with Arod and his production we can then afford to make other moves, play rookies out of the spotlight and have a defensive focus on 2nd base (Hernandez) and left field.. its really not that difficult to understand.
Reyes/Beltran/Wright/ARod/Milledge/Gomez/Castro/Gotay
Santana/Maine/Perez/Pelf./Humber (I won’t entertain Pdro signing for $8M.)
for $160M+
Take ARod’s money and turn it into Orlando Hudson or Tex etc. and Peavy. (It might take a bit more.)
Reyes/Hudson(or Beltran)/Wright/Beltran (or Tex)/Milz/ Gomez/ Castro/Gotay
Santana/Peavy/Maine/Perez/Pelfrey
What’s better for your $160M?
so what is Tiexiera going to sign for?
with Boras as an Agent?
Im sure he’ll come to the Mets for an under market deal like you all are fantasizing Santana will
And Peavy.. he’ll come here for what 15 mil?
Do you REALLY think Peavy and Tex will make a combined 30 mil in 2009 or is this more anti – arod rhetoric.?
Mostly rhetoric, but you get my drift.
Tex is a first baseman, and produces less than ARod at a less valuable position, so he’ll go for about $20M.
If we have 1 Cy Younger, we won’t need another; we could, depending on Pelfrey and Humber’s performances in ‘08, get a $15M 2nd baseman (say-Orlando Hudson) or a $10M no. 5 starter.
That’s much better than ARod, and you are only spending about $5M more, all else being equal.
I gave Perez 8 mill because I gave 2nd base 5 and catcher 6. IOW, if you don’t need it at one position, you can put it toward another. But when you cut corners virtually everywhere to begin with like you have, there is no opportunity to reallocate resources. Almost every spot is bargain bin to begin with.
Don’t you fanboys realize that last year A-Rod only had 5 more RBIs than Beltran, Delgado, and Wright? And that 2 years before he had just 105? So how in hell is he going to make up for offensive holes if he reverts to the player he’s been 2 out of the last 4 years??? And how are they going to fix those holes when there’s no money left in the budget? I guess they’ll just have to settle for mediocrity. How wonderful.
if you don’t need it at one position, you can put it toward another.
so its perfectly OK for you to have this strategy but it cant apply to A Rod?
And what if Santo de Johan blows out his elbow in year 2 of his long term deal with the Mets.. as long as we’re entertaining hypotheticals.
Huh? What are you talking about? If you pay A-Rod $30 mill then there will a ton less money to reallocate. That’s the point.
You’re not making sense.
The idea is to initially allocate money throughout your roster so you can reallocate it where necessary. You can’t do that when it is tied up in one player. Get it?
If Johan gets hurt, then he gets hurt. That’s the risk you have with any player. A-Rod could blow out something in his legs in the first year of his contract. Or worse, just start to suck in year 3 of a terribly long and wasteful 10-year contract. It could end up to be the worst contract in major league history..
Did you not insist on the need for a $10 million left fielder and a 5 million dollar Second baseman?
I love people who think that because they get the last word in on a debate their position is automatically correct
Get it? Thats Just plain wrong. Period.
That’s probably the best and simplest point of all.
Why not ARod for $30M/yr for 7+yrs?
because he’s not worth $30M/yr for 7+ yrs, particularly at his age.
It’s that simple.
If Boras and his guerilla marketing staff would offer a fair price for ARod, it might make sense, but the Mets would not get him then, because his value as a second baseman or 1st baseman, or his value along with the risk of Wright at 2ndwhich is what he would be for the Mets is far less than his value at short or at 3rd for another team.
Furthermore, his value will be greater for a team that needs offense more than the Mets do, particularly from their Left Side.
He is worth $22M at 5 yrs for the Mets. Another team would probably find him more valuable. They can have him. The Mets should spend their money on something they need.
Is there any price that Biggie won’t pay? Is there any salary for ARod that Biggie will consider disproportionate compared to his contribution? Too much burden for too little benefit?
He is worth $22M at 5 yrs for the Mets
I agree. And not a penny or a day more. Even at that price, I have reservations about the baggage he brings.
I gave my prediction up top somewhere..
Its my feeling that Omar is the birdie in Boras’s ear for the opt out..
A Rod wants to stick it to the Yanks.
the F**K YOU shirt his wife wore in the stands.. all the BS politics..
The working relationship..the past history from 2000
Fred and his SNY Network and new stadium
I truly see value in the pure home run chase and getting Gambling Pete out of the record books.. and I think Fred does too… he’s old school.
what would be the highest I’d really go and maintain my insanity..
320 over 10 .
. but he’s practically gift wrapped for the Mets at below that number.. he NEEDS this marraige for his legacy.as much as Fred and Omar need it for their reasons.
and if you think they’re not thinking about that you underestimate them both
DelGado is as good as Gone.. Heilman too.. Milledge may go as well.. I think there is a big shake up coming.. LoDuca is on the outs as well.. although i dont think so..
And I dont think Fred cares about the Cap for the next 5 years.. He’ll go over and pay happily.. not Evil Empire 2 but he’ll go over..
I think Fred has BIG BIG Plans for Queens and the development around the stadium.. this is MUCH MUCH Bigger than the Mets Fellas.
Did you not insist on the need for a $10 million left fielder and a 5 million dollar Second baseman?
Yes, I put that in my budget. Not that the $5 million would necessarily be used for a 2nd basemen. But since it’s in the budget you can allocate it toward a #2 starter for example or the LFer. So you might have an $18.5 million #2, a . $.4 mill 2nd baseman, and a $10 mill leftfielder. Or a $13.5 million #2,a $.4 mill 2nd baseman, and a $15 million LFer. Or a $13.5 mill #2, A $15 million 2nd baseman, and a $.4 million LFer. Etc, etc. You allocate according to your real needs.
The problem with A-Rod, is you can’t build that flexibility into your budget and stay under the threshold. Because in order to fit him in, you’ve cut corners with your LFer, your #2 starter, and your 2nd basemen. You’ve taken all that flexibility away.
Maintaining that flexibility is the reason you stay away from A-Rod.
I love people who think that because they get the last word in on a debate their position is automatically correct
Get it? Thats Just plain wrong. Period.
Yeah, I get it. You’re saying you love yourself. I guess you’re as vain as A-Rod. I agree, it’s just plain wrong to be so vain. So why don’t you change your behavior?
Staying away from A-Rod is a way to preserve that flexibility while staying at or near the threshold.
Its my feeling that Omar is the birdie in Boras’s ear for the opt out..
Biggie, if you honestly believe this now, then I feel sorry for you. Because it appears you’ve constructed this alternate reality which fits your desire for A-Rod. It’s one thing to want him. It’s quite another to start fantasizing about your team’s interest in this player.
I think at this point it’s nothing more than kicking the tires and covering their asses with the fan base.
I also feel bad for you because it appears you were really traumatized by the collapse at the end of the year. I think it’s coloring your thinking.
Its is my Feeling that you have such a vitriolic hatred for A rod that is clouding your perception of reality.
I truly feel sorry that you can hate one person so much that your eyes are wide shut to the events that are so clear to the majority of the Mets fanbase.
Maybe some day you will get over your Santana man crush and enjoy the 2008 season.
I have said before It doesn’t have to be Santana. I would honestly be happy with Sabathia or most any elite pitcher. As the saying goes, it’s the pitching, stupid. Not the player.
You OTOH seem totally obsessed and smitten by A-Rod like a little school girl with a crush. Get over it.
The chances of him ending up a Met are very small if you read the papers today. Most are saying the Mets are just observers at this point — peripheral players — with only a mild interest. They are not in hot pursuit of A-Rod the way Klaptrap and some of you fanboys and fangirls are hallucinating about.
I will enjoy the 2008 season from the first day of spring training as long as they don’t piss away the future by overpaying for 1 player or disrupting the young cornerstone players on the team.