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In a report for the New York Times, Ben Shpigel speculates that Omar Minaya may ‘seriously consider’ signing free-agent RHP Livan Hernandez, as he searches for an innings-eater.
The 32–year-old Hernandez has pitched in more than 200 innings during 
each of the last eight seasons. However, his total innings-pitched has dropped during each of the last four years.
Last year he was 11–11 with a 4.93 ERA in 33 starts for the D’Backs, during which opponents hit .308 against him.
…the buzz in baseball, for a while now, has been that livan and his brother, Orlando Hernandez, have been wanting to be on the same team for years now, hoping to reunite before one or both of them retire…
Orlando is a free agent after next season.
…i agree with ben, as it would not shock me at all if livan ends up pitching for the Mets…i keep getting a sense that the Mets are seeking one, maybe even two, durable, work-horse type starting pitchers, which, considering the cost of the league’s top options, leads me to believe they must be eying a trade for a guy like A’s RHP Joe Blanton and/or signing a free-agent like livan or Carlos Silva, because they all sort of meet that description, but that is all just logical speculation, of course…
For what it’s worth, in today’s Star-Ledger, in-the-know Dan Graziano lists the Mets as his ‘best guess’ for where Silva will sign.
…in short, i would be ‘comfortable’ entering next season with, say, blanton and livan, along with Pedro Martinez, John Maine and Oliver Perez, in the rotation, as it would also mean moving el duque to the bullpen…
…however, i hope minaya can score higher than this, though i fear that is up to the market more than him…
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Can they maybe afind a “durable, workhorse” pticher that doesn’t completely suck? Look at Livans numbers from last year, and the downward trend he is on, and honestly tell me you want that running out every fifth day?
He basically put up 200 innings of Dave Williamsesqu output.
He’s crap I tell you, crap!
Man, might as well have brought Glavine back!
At elast, with any of these crap #5 starters, keep it to real short (1, 2 year max) contracts.
Oh, and Pelfrey right now probably projects to have a better year than Silva, or Livan, or the rest of the poo poo platter guys.
I would hope if a trade was made for Blanton and a free agent starter was signed, I hope it would be Silva and not Livan. (If the choice has to be between the two)
Yeah Silva would cost more money, but he’s not declining. And I just don’t see anything good about signing a guy because “he and his brother want to play together”. The fact that El Duque wants to play with his brother should have nothing to do with anything. El Duque should worry about being healthy and on the field, when the team needs him.
Pass. His numbers last year were terrible. ANd he has been trending down the lst few years. His stuff is also below Glavine esue levels!
If it wasn’t for the magical 200 innings he pitched last year, there would be an uproar over signing him. Same basic uproar yo uwill hear next May when he has an ERA of 6+, and is getting pulled early every game, killing the pen!
Pelfrey has a better chance of pitching well next year, and just as likely to pitch longer in games.
If he does come on board (or anyone lkie him from the filler class) it better be for 1 year, 2 max.
Silva is better, not much though.
I would rather go for a risky guy with good stuff (prior? Jennings? whoever it is), hoping he gives you some decenti innings, and if he gets hurt, go with someone like Humber. Overall, you will get likely better production, and build for the future.
Better to go with a player fith potential to be good to great, and that has a future, than a retread on the downhill slide that has not chance to be better than mediocre.
“Pelfrey has a better chance of pitching well next year, and just as likely to pitch longer in games.”
How can you make that statement. 1 there is no way Pelfrey pitches 200 innings next year, even if he could there’s no way the Met’s let him. Hello arm trouble.
And what part of Pelfrey’s performance makes you think he could go from averaging 5.3 innings a start to over 6? His ERA may be comparable but not the durability and reliablility.
He is young, strong and developing/improving, instead of being old, shot and declining.
Pelfrey doesn’t have to leap frog over Livan, just make soem incremental progress while Livan slides back some more!
I also expect the Pelfrey will improve enough to add 2/3 – 1 inning per start to his average.
So, if they decide to hold his innings back, hopefully it is by giving him a break in September while some other young guy gets some experience (say, Mulvey), after the mets lock up the division of course!
Even better, spot El Duque in for 10 starts along the way, to go along with his long man from the pen role.
I would rather a young guy with a future pitches 170 innings with another yong guy gets the remaining 40 or so, instead of rolling out a decripit Livan H. for 200 crappy ones!
besides, his innings totals have been trending down, so who says he is some kind of lock to get 200? Either from staying healthy enough, or pitching well enough to not get yanked after 3 innings/8 ER!
I have to admit that I am all over the map commenting on trading for Bedard and Ramon Hernandez, trading for Blanton or Garza or Slowery or Cain or Lincecum and on and on.
in the end…if the Mets were to go with the scenario above where they signed to pretty decent pitchers who give you chances to be .500 or slightly higher pitchers and pitch 200 innings each, the team could do much worse.
Having a rotation of Pedro, Maine, Silva, Livan and Oliver Perez would be Ok. But would be better for what it would likely add to the pen. With these guys in the fold,, we could move Duque to the pen replacing the god awful Sele. We could move Pelfrey to the pen to compete with Mota for the 7th inning duty and in a pinch of injury….we could move either to the rotation which allows for better productivity out of the end of the rotation than what we got last year.
Bottom line, I would prefer a big move for a big time starter/ace but if that does not happen, signing both Livan and Silva would not be awful
Completely agree. Signing Silva and Livan early are the keys to this offseason. THEN you can go out and really try and upgrade your rotation or offense. If you want to package Maine, Milledge and Pelfrey for Santana then you can. If you want Haren, or others you have more chips to use.
Who says you can’t have your cake and eat it too?
The biggest difference that Omar has to make this year is to not get caught up with the big signings like he did last year with Zito and GET THE LITTLE THINGS DONE FIRST.
I did not think of that but that is actually a great strategy. Sign 2 free agents who can provide depth at the middle to back of the rotation. Then work to make the big trade to spin one of our other young starters(Maine or OP) to get Santana or Bedard or Peavy. We could even consider just a straight prospects heavy trade for a young pitcher if they go out on the market (Cain or Garza or Lincecum types)
It’s the “younger, more athletic” stupid.
Speaking of reuniting Cuban pitchers……why not consider trading a low level prospect for Contreras?
He has had success and pitched well when with El Duque in the past. He was terrible last year but is definitely a ML pitcher. If we traded them Vargas or Bostick for him….I’d do it
I could live with: Pedor, Blanton, Maine, Perez, Silva. As long as we get a top notch middle bull pen. Linebrink? Add Duque to the pen as the long man. I would rather spend the money on FA’s and stock pile the young talent for one more year to maximize trade value. I think that one more year of AAA from Pelfrey and Gomez, with some September big league time, could increase their value. OR, make them starter next season here.
Omar, Please stay away from Livan. His stuff has gotten worse every year, and is the type of pitcher we don’t need to add to the staff. Sure he can pitch past the 6th inning, but it’s not exactly like they are quality innings.
But are they more quality than Show, Mota, Pelfrey, Lawrence, Williams, Lima???????
Looking at his 5+ ERA, no, they’re not.
You need to look at the stats again. LIvan DID NOT have a 5+ ERA.
Mets #5 starters
38 starts (some of them believe it or not at the 4)
Record 11-19
Gave up 239 hits and 88 walks in 199.3 innings. WHIP 1.64
ERA 6.32
Livan
33 starts
204 innings
WHIP 1.6
ERA 4.93
Record 11-11
So in 5 less starts Livan pitched more innings and won just as many games.
IF Livan had been our #5 starter last year we would have made the playoffs.
Couple of misconceptions here. Signing Silva does not cost a 1st round draft pick. Signing Livan and Silva will give us more than just trading for Blanton.
Signing Silva and Livan does not mean that we can not still search for that hard to get ace.
My small moves to make the team better.
Sign Silva and Lian.
Sign Castillo
Sign Castro
Trade Gomez, Humber and Smith to Montreal for Rauch, Church, some young catcher that they have (the one that got away).
Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Alou, Delgado, Church/Milledge, Castro is not a bad line up at all. Church gives us the LH bat we need.
Rotation
Pedro, Maine, Perez, Silva, Livan
BP: Pelfrey, Elduque, Sosa, Feleciano, Show, Wagner, Sanchez, Heilman.
Bench
Gotay, Easley, Milledge/Church, Chavez.
you need to dump a BP guy and add Anderson to the bench.
Sorry, you are right, I forgot. Pelfrey to AAA or traded.
I like the part about Jon Rauch in AAA. ;)
Dang, you guys keep catching me.
I guess at that point Heilman can be traded, Show could be released or Sosa not resigned?
It is nice to have options though.
Livan, Silva and Blanton may all be innings eaters, but none of them are near being a top of the rotation type pitcher, which is what this team clearly lacks….Having a bunch of #2 #3 starters makes us no better than last year…At a minimum a Dan Haren or better yet a Santana or Peavy is where we need to go…It will cost us a boat load, but we need to get an ACE
Look we all know we need a top of the rotation pitcher but we can’t just sit around and hope it happens and then get stuck with a rotation of Pedro, Maine, Perez, Elduque and Pelfrey. The innings are just not there and there is no way our BP could substain such a rotation.
If you ask any general manager they would all take a rotation full of 2-3’s instead of the normal junk that teams have at the 5.
You say we would be no better than last year? Check out our #5 starter stats and then tell me we would not have made the playoffs if Livan had been our #5 last year.
For 2008 Livan would be replacing Glavines innings from last year, and if you look at their 2007 records, Glavine had better numbers. You can’t add to what happen last year, because by that logic, if any pitcher who won just 2 games were added, we would have made the playoffs….
No Silva would be replacing Glavine. Livan would be replacing the rotation of junk that was our #5 last year.
Silva and Livan > Glavine Pelfrey/other junk.
Actually the expectation is that Pedro takes Glavines innings and win totals into next year and then our new pitcher/pitchers take the 5 role and possibly Duque’s role. Pelfrey either goes to pen or AAA
Silva isn’t an inning eater. And he’s mediocre. And Livan is an inning eater to the tune of 7 IP 5 ER.
Silva and Livan pitched more innings than anyone on our team last year.
Getting a Haren at the top and then adding a Silva or Livan for #5 would be ok, but not both of them…..Seriously, Silva and Livan are not better than Pedro, Maine or Perez which makes them #4’s at best
Right but whats wrong with having reliable #4, and 5’s. I for one can not figure out how a large market team ends up with Jose Lima, Williams, Lawrence, Park, Gonzalez, Vargas and others filling in for the #4’s and 5’s. We have money, who says we can’t trade Maine for Haren once Livan and Silva are signed? Worst case we go out and make a package trade for Haren that does not include Maine and then go with a 6 man rotation subing out Pedro and Livan. You know that someone will get injured. Imagine if your fall back guys are Livan then Elduque? NO more Brian Lawrence’s.
That’s not true. We have two guys coming off 15-win seasons, and a hopefully rejuvenated Pedro, though you don’t want to count on that. Yeah, we need an ace, but what could have also made a big difference last year was having one or more arms in the rotation to throw 200 innings. The closest we got was Glavine, with 190-something.
More innings by the starters takes pressure off the pen, which was so terrible down the stretch last year mainly because of overwork. If we have two starters who are consistently pitching 6 and 7 innings, both with an ERA in the 4-4.50 range, that makes us so much better over the course of a season, regardless of individual statistics. In the absence of an available ace, this is the best move we can make for the rotation. As an earlier poster mentioned, even having only one of Silva or Livan in the 5 spot is a HUGE upgrade over Pelfrey/Lawrence/whatever other crap we had out there last year. And make no mistake, Pelfrey would be best served in middle relief next year so he can develop with a little less pressure.
We’re not signing Silva or Livan to be an ace. As fans we should stop being ignorant and uninformed and recognize these moves for what they are – effectively down-roster moves. Not everything you do in the offseason has to be about making a big splash.
Oh boy…..the homerism is back.
How can you be even remotely “comfortable” with Livan. Guy is a right-handed version of Glavine essentially at this point of his career.
But you sweat Glavine, so it makes sense that you’d want Livan.
You guys amaze me, you don’t think that Matt and every other rational Mets fan wants an ace? Its just we can’t rely on it. It may or may not happen. Thus if it does not, Livan is a good option for #5.
Imagine some of the deals that can get done if we sign Livan and Silva.
Trade Maine, Gomez and Pelfrey for Santana.
Trade Maine and Milledge for Haren.
Trade Perez (who is in his last year of arbitration) and Milledge to SD for Peavy.
Trade Milledge, Maine, for Burnett and Rios.
Trade Milledge, Delgado, Pelfrey for Ervin Santana and Chone Figgins.
Trade Gomez, Pelfrey, Gotay for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Montero (nice young catcher).
There are so many moves that we can make but still not be left in a bind if they don’t happen. Priority #1 sign innings eaters, #2 fix the pen, #3 find a catcher and 2nd base. If you get those things done early then you can spend the entire offseason looking to upgrade.
This has to be plan Z. Has anyone watched this guy pitch the last couple of years? Did anyone watch Colorado light him up last year? Geez, if this is what we have to watch next year, I may just cancel cable.
The bottom line is that we need to go into the season with at least six at least semi-legitimate SPs unless we want to go through Lima Time, Park, or Lawrence starters every time someone goes down or needs a rest. Even if we pull off a trade for a #1 or #2 type starter, we would currently have a rotation built around that new SP, Maine and Ollie, neither of whom have shown that they have developed their arm to the point that they can pitch effectively through a full season, and Pedro and Duque, who will be fortunate to combine for the innings of a single average starter even if relatively (given their respective medical situations) healthy throughout the season. You’re still missing a ton of SP innings here- at least two more solid SPs worth if you want to go into the season comfortably. I’m all for giving Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey their shots, but if we trade for a top-level SP, at least one of them will be gone, and even if you slot one in the rotation out of spring training, none are physically an option for a full season SP workload. They all pitched a little over 150 innings last season- the same as Maine in 2006- and will not, even in the best case scenario, be able to start effectively all year. We simply need more horses here, and if it’s the Silvas and Livans who are the only ones available for that, you need to ask yourself if that’s a better option than, say, picking up Brett Tomko in June, and I don’t see how it’s not.
Someone who understands baseball, a rarity.
Innings coming back
Pedro 180? (I would consider that a blessing).
Maine low 200’s assuming normal increase.
Perez low 200’s.
Elduque who knows but you can’t expect more than 150.
Pelfrey 175 at the most.
You really have to have one pitcher that baring health issues will give you 200+ innings. Right now if you think of this, the Mets have 162 games and a playoff team needs to average at least 6 innings a start. That is 162×6=972. Even best case we are about 65 innings short. That may not seem like much but that’s 65 innings added to a bullpen. That’s a huge deal.
There’s one simple move that the Mets could make to save the wear & tear on the bullpen:
Give up on any game where they’re down by 5 or more in the 7th, and let the mop-up man from the bullpen pitch until his arm falls off if necessary. That was the mistake Willie made with Sele in 2007 – not letting him pitch the lost causes.
Sele was in 34 games. In 5 of them he pitched for either 1/3 or 2/3 of an inning, and 10 of them he pitched 1.0 innings. Weird that the “long man” made nearly half of his appearances for an inning or less. And, most of those appearances were not the 9th inning, so that meant that someone else had to mop up after Sele (how embarrassing!).
By the way, before you say that he was pulled because he stunk, of the 5 short appearances, in 3 of 5 he allowed no hits/walks/runs, in another (7/4 – COL 17 NYM 7) he gave up 1H & 1BB but no R or inherited runners scored, and the 5th was the weird game in PIT (8/15 – NYM 10 PIT 8) where the Mets scored 5 in the 1st & 5 in the 9th, but Sele’s 4 in 0.1 in the bot 9 make it close. So 1 dog of those 5. In the 10 inning-long appearances, no runs in 6 of 10, and in the other 4 he allowed 1 run each.
Consider Livan Hernandez? Consider Omar being fired…..
Dont think livan is the answer….Not sure what makes Silva or Livan better options than Sosa, who btw Im not making a case for, just stating that I don’t think you need to worry about your bottom end of the rotation when everyone gets bumped by an ace or by a dominant #2…..In other words, if you got a kazmir type, youd have pedro as #1, the kazmir, then maine, the op….then you really only have to worry bout your #5 slot, which there are SCORES of options ranging from letting pelfrey in already, keeping el duque there, bringing heilman to the rotation, trading for a #4 or #5, trading for another young monster like lincecum or cain, etc. etc. I do think that they should spend all effort right now on aquiring a young young #2 type with KILLING stuff, who could blossom into your ace, and then spend money next year on santana or sabbathia or whomever is a FA…..Getting a Cain or Lincecum or Kazmir type solves your #4-#5 slot issues believe it or not since you bump everyone down….
Problem is what happens when you don’t get that killer #2? That’s what happen last year and why we ended up with junk for #5. Any time you turn below average results into average results it improves your team.
Obviously, a new top of the rotation guy slides everyone down, but this only “solves” the 4-5 problem if you want to count on Pedro to pitch a full season and nobody else to get hurt…which isn’t a realistic gamble.
What you fail to realize, edwindrewes, is that your entire point is based on the assumption that it would be easy for the Mets to acquire a “young monster” like a Lincecum, or a Kazmir. It’s not that easy. Those guys aren’t coming easy, if at all, so it’s not a bad – scratch that – it’s an extraordinarily good idea to shore up the back end of your rotation in the likely event that you don’t sign someone to “bump everyone down.” Signing Silva (which I favor) or Livan gives us more flexibility so we might later pursue that ace without being hamstrung going into the season if that doesn’t work out.
As I said last week, all things considered equal, in a choice between Pelfrey and Livan, you obviously start Pelfrey because of his upside. But if Pelfrey is used in a trade for a better starter like a Blanton, Livan then becomes a very attractive option for the 5th slot because quite honestly I just don’t think Humber has the goods. Granted he was sitting for the better part of a month, but I don’t think I saw a single swing and miss in his start against the Nats in September. That’s not good…. maybe we should consider Humber in the bullpen where he can air it out a bit more….
Problem with starting Pelfrey as the # 5 at the begining of the season is that he will hit a huge wall at 150 innings and force us to trade for a #5 at the deadline. If you start him in AAA (assuming he does not get traded) he can keep his innings down and alow Livan to start the season then when Pedro gets hurt or you want to go to a 6 man rotation Pelfrey is fresh and ready. You have to maximize the 150 innings Pelfrey will give you and you can’t do that if he starts the season as the #5. Bad teams can do this because they can rest them all they want and allow them to grind through the 150 inning wall, a team with playoff desires can not.
i can’t wait to sign livan and hear omar talk about how he’s a Proven Veteran with Postseason Experience and all the other garbage to justify bring another 57 year old man on board
At this point I would still rather have Livan than Glavine. I know his numbers are not better but I would have no doubt he wanted to be here. Plus if Glavine were here then we would be obligated to making him the #2, Livan would be the #5. Big difference. It means no more Glavine vs. Smotlz match ups, it would be Maine or Perez instead.
I’m really surprised at the number of people who want Livan on this team. You can scream all you want about the magical number of 200 IP, but to make an argument for the Mets to sign Livan is basically turning a blind eye to every other indicator of how you expect a pitcher to perform.
In the past 4 years Livan Hernandez has had progressively worse stats in every major pitching category. Every single one. His ERA has increased steadily, along with his WHIP and BAA. Meanwhile his IP have steadily declined in the same time period. If you haven’t taken the time to look this up, just look at it now.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/h/hernali01.shtml
All of this adds up to Livan Hernandez being a not so great option next year. I’m very aware of the Mets’ need for an inning eater. But there has to be a component of quality to those innings. And all objective evidence points to Livan Hernandez being incapable of providing that for this team. I would actually be surprised if he even reached 200 IP next year based on his downward spiral as a pitcher.
Bringing him here would be a mistake.
People constantly think about the things of lesser importance…..For example worrying about the catcher position instead of focusing on pitching and getting the best player alive….Or getting an innings eater #5 starter….Those things come in time, and can be filled up, but to make your first move spending money on a garbage player so you can fill some small aspect of need is just being nitpicky….
Does anyone else aside from me see trading Maine orPerez as a huge mistake?? They are young pitchers that we need to build AROUND. sure we can use them as trading chips now, but what happens next year when Pedro presumably leaves? We are stuck in the same situation with only Pelfrey/Humber to trade if need be.
Maine and Perez should be built around. yes we need an ace, i agree. yes we need some inning eaters. but the mets needs these two guys, they are the future of the pitching aspect of the organization much as reyes and wright are the future of the rest of the team.
thoughts??
I haven’t heard perez and Maine’s name come up much in trade rumors. i think Omar values them as much as you. Unless you are trading them in a package for a true ace like Santana or Haren I don’t see either of these guys moving given their age and distance from free agency, and the true upside both showed last year.
Throwing truckloads of money at Livan Hernandez? Jorge Posada? Carlos Silva, who has the worst K/9 of any pitcher in the history of MLB? As if Minaya hasn’t run this team into the ground enough already…He should be dismissed, and I have zero confidence in him.
Or in the direction of this mickey mouse franchise!
trading for blanton, signing silva, and signing linebrink/riske would be da bomb and it won’t be hard to do.
[...] an interesting post today on Buzz: Consider Livan HernandezHere’s a quick [...]
I certainly agree that many of our pitching problems last year had to do with poor managerial decisions, but telling a young pitcher who has never thrown over 150 innings or so in a season that the team now has the “confidence” in him to count on him for 200 quality innings is nothing short of Dusty Baker-style abuse and the best way to insure that your young starter will not only fail down the stretch but blow his arm out doing it. Yes, pitchers used to pitch longer and more often, but they were trained to do so from the beginning. Darling, for instance, pitched 205 innings in his first full season in 1984 _because_ he pitched 195 innings the year before between Tidewater and five mlb starts. Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, or any other young pitcher is simply not capable of suddenly increasing their season workload by over 30%. It would be like asking the ‘84 Darling to pitch 260 innings, which certainly would have blown his arm out too. And Pedro hasn’t thrown even close to a full season since 2005, so to expect him to go from last season’s 28 mlb innings to a full season’s worth of SP innings, no matter how he’s managed, just isn’t close to physically possible.