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Following his work writing the Mets Top 10 Prospects at Baseball America, John Manuel conducted a chat about the system, answering questions from readers for over an hour.
…i got three questions answered, so thanks, john… here are a few of his responses…
Regarding Francisco Pena, the 18–year-old catcher who the Mets signed out of the Dominican last summer for $750,000, Manuel writes:
“I decided to give him a mulligan but it was a brutal year. Ismael Cruz, the Mets’ int’l scouting director, told me that his father also signed Tony Pena and insists Tony Pena was build like Francisco at the same age, i.e., he had cankles and wasn’t looking like an athlete…He’s got to get in better shape to be a prospect though; I left him in the 11-20 range.”
On Fernado Martinez and possible overhyping, he writes:
“I don’t think we’re hyping him; we’re saying he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the system, but we consistently present his flaws as well…I thought he did very well offensively this year considering his age and league…Also, he had a hand problem. It sounds like I’m making excuses but I’m presenting the facts. Let’s see what he does healthy over a full year. I believe he’s going to resemble Carlos Lee more than anyone else; I know that’s an odd comp, but I saw Carlos in the Sally League in 1995, and he could run, he was a lithe athlete…now he’s a big league masher, and all his value is in his bat. F-Mart for me will be that kind of player.”
Lastly, on the system as a whole, Manuel writes:
“I’m a bit higher on the Mets than I thought I would be but that’s because I went hard after the younger Latin prospects in my research and reporting. They are probably in the 15-20 range because they have talent but it’s all quite far away.”
…a very, very informative chat… manuel covered the system top to bottom, discussing everyone from pelfrey and milledge to the new class of caribbean signings…
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Cankles.
You stole my comment. Cankles.
This is what I keep saying. Omar is getting crushed for not signing prospects, but that isn’t the case – he’s just signing prospects who are a lot younger than we’re used to. If you would normally give a general manager 2-3 years to see results out of the draft, we’ve gotta give Omar a little more time than that considering he’s signing 16 and 17 year olds who should still be in high school. In my mind there’s nothing wrong with signing the potential stars younger, and leaving the draft picks to guys who can help soon like Smith and Kunz.
We got a couple of great 11 year olds in Howard County Maryland.
LMAO
The problem is, buy signing 16 and 17 year olds, you are leaving yourself out there to make mistakes. Who knows how these kids will react when they actually face talent that can play. Same goes for a high school kid, just think about the number of them that fizzle out.
¿Que son “cankles”? No entiendo la palabra.
la palabra “cankles” se refiere a una persona que tiene los tobillos gordos. No es una palabra cientifico, mas vulgar. Se usa cuando una persona no tiene definicíon entre la pierna y el pie.
Translation: the word cankles refers to a person with fat ankles. it is not a scientific word, more slang. It is used when a person has no definition between the leg and foot.
Further translation: Peña is fat and needs to stop eating pasteles de guyaba. (guava pasteries).
You’re letting him off the hook metsdude… hes supposed to do BOTH..
No reason at all not sign a Matthew Efferson for example..
He better happily take the Braves 18th overall pick, and start flexing some dollars n the draft..
And spending your first few picks in a draft on guys who ALREADY project as nothing more then relievers, not even closers.. is just plain crazy..
Omar is in love with the Cordero/Smith/Kuntz player.. that much is obvious..
He’s also in love with big armed guys who he think can be taught to throw a strike.. Julio.. and now Burgos.. needs to take off his rose colored glasses some
Jordan good to see you posting this kind of stuff on Metsblog.. I think it def deserves some mention, esp now as we do nothing but read that we dont have the players to trade for elite talent
I disagree.
Drafting/signing young players is an extremely tricky business. It’s a delicate balance between signing high potential guys with a small likelihood of making it in the majors, and slightly lower potential guys more likely to help soon.
Omar is doing both. Guys like Pena, Guerra and Martinez are among the highest potential, and at the same time least likely to make it to the majors, of any prospects in the majors. Next season Martinez, who should have just have been drafted or be going to his Freshman year of college, will be among the most experienced players returning to AA ball.
At the same time, if all you do is sign such players, you’re not going to have the rate of return that a successful team needs. A guy like Joe Smith or Kunz is just as valuable as Billy Wagner, because without them you can’t get the ball to Wagner. See: The Mets bullpen before and after Smith’s demise.
It used to be that the draft had to be used to sign high potential guys and guys more likely to make the majors. Now, that’s not necessary. Sure, if there’s a high potential, low risk guy in the draft Omar should jump and spend anything to get him. But given the fact that this isn’t usually the case, there’s nothing wrong with him spending the money for the potential in the Latin market, and using the draft to get guys to help soon.
In two years, Smith and Kunz could be integral 7th and 8th inning guys making the league minimum. Martinez could be a star outfielder, and Guerra could be a 21-year old phenom.
Obviously Omar has his faults. Blame him for liking Burgos all you want. But, in my opinion, it’s simply too early to rate the job he has done recruiting young talent. This team’s farm system is a lot better than a lot of people give it credit for.
I guess we agree to disagree.. there is not an impact bat to be found outside of F-Mart in the entire system..
And 7th and 8th inning guys are fine.. but seriously.. is that the best we can do in rounds 1-3??
Guerra is already being accused of not having a breaking ball.. so phenom status is a reach for sure.
The mets refusal to invest in the draft, is inexcusable as far as I can see..
Look at the WS teams this year.. riddled with home grown talent… esp the Sox who had the prospects to trade for Beckett, and STILL promote Papelbon, Lester, Bucholtz (our pick for Pedro) Pedoira, and now with Elsbury they can trade Crisp for even more depth.. to go along with guys like Hansen still in their system
The Rockies entire team was home grown, from Helton, to Holliday, Atkins, Francis, Corpas, and now they have Stewart on the way…
Even the Yanks the same with Joba, Hughes, Kennedy, Cano, Wang.. and more on the way in Tabata, Sanchez, etc
You keep saying guys to help us now.. outside of a season of Joe Smith, and mixed results from Gomez and Milledge, we didn’t get anything from the farm this year.
Humber and Vargas got shelled, Pelfrey had one great start (against Atlanta) Gotay did OK but obviously there wasnt enough confidence in him to keep him there… We gave away Pena to the Nationals in the Rule V draft.. A Hearn is still all glove no bat.. Carp can’t even perform well enough to get a cup of coffee..
It’s hard to defend our farm, when our 4th over all prospect projects as a back end starter… and we can’t fix any of our holes on the current team (starters, bullpen, 2b, catcher) from with in.
We are thin and un proven, and no help is coming soon.
Oh and I do blame him for Burgos.. I mean he gives away the 3rd best rooke in the AL (yes he finished a distant 3rd), for a guy who won’t even throw a pitch until 2009.. are we trying to win in 2009 or 2007?
All the 5th starters we ran out in 07 (Vargas, Humber, Pelfrey Dave Williams) we could of used Bannister big time.
We all know about Heath Bell for more peanuts..
This all makes me thing John Maine was a total fluke on his part, as he wanted Julio, since he went out AGAIN and got Julio in Burgos.
Other then spending the wilpon’s money, and getting Maine and Perez, Omar has not shown me anything.
You do understand that by signing guys like Pedro, Beltran, etc., we’ve been giving up high round draft picks right??
Omar has been signing players to help the team now, but in doing so, you have to give up draft picks. If you don’t HAVE the pick you CAN”T DRAFT the player. Omar has built the team, into a contender by the signings and trades he’s made. He’s improved the lower end of the farm by international signings, now, with the core in place in the Majors, coupled with the low A talent set to start coming up through the system, via the draft, he’ll be able to Draft the draft picks you’re looking for. But, do you remember this team four years ago? It’s far and away improved, and now that it’s a contender, and the low A farm is as good as it is, the AA and AAA farm will start improving over the next few years.
Even if you surrender your 1st round pick in FA signings outstanding talent that slips down due to contractual demands is available in the lower rounds. Unfortunately, Omar is not allowed to spend more than what’s slotted for a given pick by Selig’s lap dog, Mr. Fred Wilpon. This seems to be changing based on Omar’s recent comments.
Where are our Papelbons, Pefroias, and Lesters?
Why can’t Omar draft these types of players too?
Omar didnt sign Reyes, didnt draft Heilman, Milledge, or Wright.. so let’s be clear on the situation here..
I’m talking about Omar’s draft, the past two years.. in which hes done next to nothing dude.. he wouldn’t even pay for Efferson.. a hard throwing lefty with potential through the roof.. just plain crazy.
Even he admits being a “good citizien” hasn’t helped the mets… so maybe next year will be different, like I said take the Braves 18th round pick and run..
But drafting closers in the early rounds is really not paying dividens.. Joe Smith had what, half a season with the mets before he was completely ineffective?
No way he belongs in the class with Wright and Reyes… Heilman is a distant 3rd (another 1st round pick turned bullpen arm) and Joe Smith a VERY distant 4th..
You arguement is that Omar has done a good job drafting/signing international players and I just don’t see it… and it doesnt look like anyone else does since no teams want our prospects.
Many of the Red Sox home grown players who made an impact this year did so within 2-3 years of being drafted. The clock is ticking on Omar. He’s been GM and has had 3 drafts already. I think by the end of 2008 those drafts should start to produce some value.
If the latin prospect are very good then we should start to see them producing as well.
You’re willing to give Omar “a couple more years” but I’m not. I think 4 years is enough to start expecting some results.
OK, well I don’t know how you measure years but here’s where I am.
Omar signed in Winter 2004. His first draft was June 2005.
Thus, four years gives him until June 2009. I agree. If no one is panning out by then, there’s a problem. But that’s still 1.5 years away.
Also, it is completely unreasonable to expect a player signed as a 16 year old to take the same amount of time to develop as a 22 year old. Pedroia and Paplebon went to four years of high school and four years of college. Martinez had none. NONE.
Uggh
i really hope we get the braves draft pick maybe we can get someone to drop down to us due to money issues with smaller market teams.
We better hope we get that draft pick, because otherwise any decent player who drops with money issues will be taken with the Tigers pick (#21) before we get to pick (#22).
I think that Omar is in the process of rebuilding the organization after the Phillips-Duquette malaise. There have been very few good picks due to a lot of free agent signings. It is going to take awhile before anything pays off. It’s a vicious cycle because if you don’t sign free agents you get criticized for not improving the team and you lose picks and if you do sign them you get criticized for ruining your minor league system. I think getting these guys from the DR and (I hear he wants to do the same in South East Asia) wil reap benefits years from now.
This is consistent with what some of the more rational posters around here are saying …. this is a hard system to project because of the age. Now if Omar can get the Wilpons to open the purse-strings and go over-slot we’ll be set…. it would also be nice to get Atlanta’s pick for Glavine so we’re free to sign a pitcher in FA this year without losing a first-rounder….
How much longer are people going to give Omar to produce from the farm system? I think if by the end of 2008 the system continues to produce little then he deserves to be criticized. Blaming it on the Wilpons being cheap is a total cop out especially when those using that excuse can point to only one player from 2005 — Beato — who didn’t sign due to money issues. And Beato was a 17th round pick. It’s unclear whether any team has recently given a 17th round pick the money Beato was asking for. If not, the excuse is a totally bogus one.
Others can produce gems from the later rounds (past the 1st) so the excuse of losing first round picks also sounds hollow. And why is it that players the Mets don’t resign are not bringing back draft picks? That’s another question to ask. Either the Mets are not offering arbitration when they should be or they’re signing too many players who won’t return draft picks when they leave — ie, players who are bad, too old, or are retiring.
In any case, the lack of both pitching and positional player prospects of high value speaks to something wrong in the system, whether it’s drafting or developmental deficiencies.
Mets players haven’t been bringing back prospects because they haven’t had many A level players leave the past few years. Because they didn’t have many A level players a few years ago.
You all forget how bad this organization was a few years ago. Omar had to start from rock bottom, and that meant sacrificing the minors for a couple of years to help the big league team.
Yes, and that’s exactly my point. Why is Omar not bringing on board A level players? I think part of the reason is his fascination with older players who can no longer preform up to the level that will make them Type A free agents. This is a problem.
And while the parent club was a mess when Omar took over, the minor leagues were not in bad shape. They had just produced Reyes and Wright ,and there were quite a few good prospects that Omar was able to turn around for needed players. The problem is he turned them around for players like Lo Duca who have faded so badly he is not a type A free agent. Or they fade so badly he will not offer them arbitration to be able to get the draft picks back.
Is you patience limitless? Are you going to give Omar a pass forever? When will you start to question things if the minors continue to turn up very little?
Players that have left via free agency over the past three season were mostly players that were not signed by Omar. They’re guys expiring from the pre-Omar days. It’s not his fault there was no talent there.
I understand that the minors weren’t that bad WHEN Omar took over. But Omar was forced to trade guys for major league players to appease the fans and keep his job. He had to put a winner out immediately. In doing so, he sacrificed the farm system. Do you blame this on him? Is it hisfault the team was so weak and the NY fans demanded immediate results?
Since then, Omar has been doing his best to help the farm system without hurting the big club’s chances. The best way to do that is in the international market, where you can sign anyone regardless of what major league free agents you sign. Those guys are there, they’re just young. Give them a couple of years.
I’m talking about the players acquired by Omar.
Alou, Delgado, Lo Duca, Valentin, El Duque.
Omar acquired all these, and perhaps only Delgado will bring back a type A free agent when he leaves but then will the Mets even offer him arbitration?
Castillo and Glavine?? Will the Mets offer both of them arbitration?
That’s 7 players and the Mets will likely get high draft picks from no mare than 2 of them. That’s what I’m talking about.
VCarver,
Apparently you do not grasp the idea about Draft Pick compensation. Several different posters have been trying to explain it to you, apparently with no results.
In order for us to have aquired Beltran (he made our team much better regardless of what many say about him) we had to give up a high level draft pick. Same goes for Pedro, Wagner, etc.
Four years ago, the Major League team, was in NO WAY in the same class that our team over the last two years has been.
Having the contending team is great, but to do so, it required sacrificing Draft Picks. This team is not the Yankees or Red Sox who’ve had type A players coming and going for years. The Yankee’s lose draft picks with their type A free agent signings, but they also gain high level draft picks when a type A player becomes a free agent and signs with another team.
I’m sorry if you can’t grasp this, but Omar couldn’t have drafted the players you’re complaining he hasn’t because of this rule in Baseball. It’s a confusing rule, but necessary to keep other teams financially alive.
IMO, Omar has compensated for losing the draft pick by putting resources into international signings, which will take longer to come to fruition, but can possibly be much more rewarding within the next two or three years, especially once we have reached the position where type A free agents are coming off the books as often as we’re signing them and continuing to have the high level draft picks you feel we’re missing.
Imagine having the best Single A team in the minors, and constantly feeding new talent into that team. That talent will start flowing up through the system and make the entire system better, but that can’t happen in only three years.
Finally someone gets it. Basically, it was a never ending cycle that Omar has somehow finally managed to end.
When Omar came here, the Mets didn’t have players, so he had to sign free agents. When he did so he lost draft picks. Most teams that lose draft picks also gain when their players sign elsewhere. However, once gain, the Mets didn’t have players. So no compensation was gained. Thus, to help the minor league team, he signed international free agents. These guys take longer since they are signed younger, but they are there in the system. Eventually, they will come to the majors and succeed, or they will be traded for players who will stay with the Mets and help the team or will leave and get us draft picks. Also, some of the players we signed will eventually become free agents and will get us draft picks.
Any GM will tell you that it is virtually impossible to improve a minor league and major league system at the same time. Any GM will tell you that in 3 seasons Omar has made tremendous strides. No one could have done a better job, or will continue to do a better job.