Lets say Silva is better than Humber because I hope that Pelfrey at least pitches 5th. How much better? $10M better? I doubt it. $10M for 5 years is too much to bet on Silva over Humber. (If they were boxers instead of pitchers, would you bet $10M on Silva?)

Will Silva’s advantage over Humber be the difference between winning and not winning the World Series in ‘08? I doubt it. If winning is the goal, then there is no short-term advantage to obtaining Silva. The long term reward scenario of giving experience to Pelfrey and Humber, however, is 4 years of very good young cheap starting pitching from at least one of them. If soeone gets hurt, you’ve got Duke and Mulvey.

Why waste your financial advantage in ‘09 on Silva when there are real impact players to be had?

Here’s a kicker: Even in the unlikely event that Humber and Pelfrey show no signs that they will be better than Carlos Silva (and given their upsides, if either become Carlos Silva, it is a bust), you can get a Silva any time–probably for less money–in a stronger market. And since we probably aren’t going anywhere in ‘08, there’s thus no reason not to go with upside, which Pelf and Humber have in spades while Silva has none.

If we get Silva for $10M, someone else rides the pine. Nobody will get that kind of money and not play. Humber, Duke, Wagner, Feliciano, Heilman, Sanchez, Smith, Muniz, Show, (a decent LOLOOGY) and Padilla = bullpen surplus. We have bullpen depth. The bullpen last year was hobbled by injuries and badly mismanaged (e.g. the Willie and Mota man crush/not bringing up capable guys like Muniz sooner and sticking with the same failed retreads). Someone will be traded. Do you trust Omar to make a good decision? What if the Silva signing precipitates a bad Omar move? That’s a real risk. Silva is not enough of a reward IMO, to take that risk. That + the money = don’t get Silva.

The one good thing about signing Silva is that if we don’t need him, he’s enough of a commodity that we could trade him without eating too much salary. If that’s the plan, than he might be a good (albeit exceedingly expensive) hedge against Pelf and Humber. I don’t really trust Omar to take this route.

At this point, I like him because he’s an innings-eater, and should get a boost. Matt Clement may well be the better FA option this year.

The worst that could happen is that Pelfrey and Humber suck in ‘08, a year where we probably won’t go anywhere anyway, and we regroup in ‘09. Chances of that happening I feel are small.

The worst case scenario with Silva is that either he sucks and we’re stuck with him, or he’s mediocre and Humber or Pelf get traded and become solid John Maine type pitchers elsewhere.

Think of it this way, given the upsides of Pelf and Humber, the chances of both being better than Silva by ‘09 are very high, and thus spending a ton of money on Silva is inadvisable when Silva will not even make a difference in ‘08. You’re essentially banking on the small probability that both Pelf and Humber will bust, for the sake of the small difference between Pelf or Humber and Silva in ‘08, and when either or both could be better than Silva even in ‘08.

15/3 sounds like too much for me but lets see if that actually is the price, if the deal gets done, and how the rest of the market plays out.

torreable will most likely be a below average hitter next year, but he will also be 29 next july, lo duca will also likely be a below average hitter and will turn 36 in april. if i have to pay more money for youth and defense in my catcher(s) its worth it.