|
|
|
In an article for Newsday, Ken Davidoff critiques what the Mets have done so far this off-season, and suggests what still needs to be done to improve the team.
Davidoff, on what has been done already…
“3. Exercised their 2008 option on Moises Alou. Thumbs down. At some point, the 41-year-old Alou is going to stop hitting. And even if he keeps hitting, he’s going to keep getting hurt, too.”
…on what still needs to be done…
“1. Trade Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge, Kevin Mulvey and a lower-level prospect to the A’s for Dan Haren.”
“The beauty of a Haren trade is that the Mets would be acquiring an ace for the price of a back-of-the-rotation starter. They would retain the payroll flexibility to go out and get Santana on the free-agent market a year from now, if Santana is still available, or Erik Bedard in two years.”
…davidoff has several valid points and this was an interesting read, but i actually liked keeping alou on for 2008…of course he’s a risk, but a risk worth taking…
…also, his trade proposal would most likely bring haren to the mets, but i’m still anxious to see which prospects, if any, minaya decides to deal…
 |
 |
 |
RSS 2.0 Both comments and pings are currently closed.
Who were you going to replace with Alou? He’s a good bat to have for 1 year and it’s only $8M. The injury to Alou was conceived to be bigger than it really was was because the whole starting OF and the replacements (Chavez and Milledge) were also injured.
we cant trade milledge for a starting pitcher becasue that will open up a huge hole in right field and we’ll have another hole in left field next year.
Gomez could be ready for next year, it’s not impossible that Martinez will be a major leaguer by 09 either.
There are guys in the free agency that the Mets can explore if Milledge leaves, such as Kosuke Fukudome, Eric Hinske and Milton Bradley.
The fact is, we don’t need Heilman in the long run, and he is on the last year of his contract, and he isn’t going to re-sign with us, because he still wants to start.
Fact is Heilman has been a good reliever each of the last 3 years. How many other relievers, who aren’t closers, can you say that about? How does our bullpen go from being a huge weakness to having one of their best relievers being easily expendable in the space of less than 2 months? Heilman only should be traded in a deal for a front of the rotation starter. He is a more important part of this team then most give him credit for.
And FYI, Heilman isn’t a FA for 3 more years, not one.
i’ve heard this rumor several times but still dont get one thing: what motivation do the a’s have for trading haren…? is he up for free agency? from what i thought he’s a young guy whose probably at least 2 yrs away from free agency, and he’s a bonafide ace, so why would the a’s be looking to deal him?
How can you not have alou here. He compared to others is coming at a cheap price. He hits and when he doesn’t hit which i doubt will occur you have endy and whoever remains post ace trade. Santana will be trade this year, I like haren but only if Santana is been traded elsewhere or twins resign him. But hey we have just as good a chance in getting santana because the red sox wouldn’t trade Ellsbury or Buchholz after a no hitter and postseason heroics. The yanks have their untouchables and cano wouldn’t be traded. The only one I fear is the dodgers/angels. One of them will get caberera and the loser may go the santana route. I just hope the mets get it done fast and early.
If the Yankees and the Red Sox think that the other will land Santana each teams untouchable prospects will miraculously become available.
So he would have the Mets go to war with an outfield of Carlos Beltran and…who? Endy Chavez and Carlos Gomez? Forget about having an imposing offense, I guess.
Acquiring Dan Haren? Good idea. Trading away Milledge and Heilman without a plan to replace them? Bad idea.
Seriously. Although I suspect he made his ‘future’ suggestions based on what was already done. Ex: The Alou signing.
PS: That Contreras trade would be awful, someone who put up a 5.57 ERA last year at what we think was his Age 35 season (Probably more likely 37 or 38). and you want to commit 15 million over the next 2 years for him? Please God no. If they want to eat maybe 12 of the 20 million, maybe I’d take the risk. But short of that, no chance in hell. If were spending that kind of money for a non-ace pitcher, just sign Silva. He’s way better.
Has everyone forgotten HOW MANY games Alou missed last year with a strained quad? I liked the 30 game it streak 200, but if he had played 20 or 30 more games, which was reasonable to expect, we are probably in the World Series. I have no objection to bringing him back, because Green is also gone. We are in a tough spot. But let’s not forget where he failed the team last year. And it could happen again.
Who’s going to replace Alou?
Who’s going to replace Heilman? Who was arguably our best reliever all year.
Sure Haren is a solid pitcher (4+ ERA post-ASB) but if we ship off the best part of our bullpen we’re not really fixing anything, just hiding where our problems are.
Is one excellent season enough to even qualify Haren as a bonafide ace? His ‘07 played out much the same way John Maine’s did (great first half, came down to Earth somewhat in the second). But is he worth the kind of package we would consider sending the Twins for Santana?
Santana for Milledge Heilman and Mulvey? You must be crazy.
Sorry. I have never forgiven Heilman for giving up a season deciding homer to a major chump like Molina. I say he is soft and he will just fail us again in a big spot. Get what you can.
I wouldn’t judge Heilman based on one hot post season batter, but he is on the last year of his contract, he is certainly replaceable, and he won’t resing unless he’s starting, so I say let him sign a big time contract somewhere else and let’s get something in return.
I really think that if Milledge has more trade value than Gomez, we should go for Garza. Garza has beautiful stuff and would be a nice young arm to add to Perez, Maine and Pelfrey in our rotation.
However, knowing Minaya, he’ll find a deal to let go of Pelfrey and Gomez and come back with an ace caliber pitcher.
(What I consider ace is Halladay, Beckett, Wang, Bedard, Santana, Verlander, Bonderman, Sabbathia, Lackey, Weaver, F Hernandez, Haren, Lowe, Peavy, Webb, Oswalt, Carpenter, Zambrano, Harang, Hudson, Willis, Hamels.)
Replace Lowe with Penny
The Mets beat writer at Newsday is David Lennon and I would take whatever he writes a lot more serious than what Davidoff writes. Usually the beat writers are a lot more knowledgeable about the team’s organizational talent than columnists. But generally when it comes to assessing a team’s young talent it seems that the media is clueless. Perception and hype usually replace honest assessments by scouts. BTW if the Mets trade young talent and they go on to blossom into stars the same writers that pushed for the trade will then criticize the Mets for making it.
I’m not sure that Milledge, Mulvey, Heilman and another prospect will get you a “back of the rotation starter”, but nevertheless, Haren and Blanton will come relatively cheap.
I think it’s a good alternative to Santana, who’s going to cost us an arm and a leg and, frankly, is just not worth it.
I think that the one topic you bring up is not being talked about at all. That being everyones willingness to invest the entire farm system and a significant amount of payroll into one player(Santana). Please take note of the other team in town and how their high priced pitching investments have worked out recently, to the point where they are unwilling to part with prospects because they come so much cheaper and if they get hurt, oh well! Honestly no one knows what our prospects can do at the major league level but I am in favor of giving them a shot. I dont know where this win now at all costs or die attitude came from but I dont like it. Lets be an organization to be proud of, not just a one hit wonder. Alot more people look up to the Beatles than they do to Tony Basil.
gmoney 45 ,, YES, well said
Good point, Davidoff isn’t the best source. His opinion is merely speculation.
I can see replacing Heilman, but not Alou. I think we can ride the Alou train for one more year.
“Aaron Heilman, Lastings Milledge, Kevin Mulvey and a lower-level prospect ” …. is that really the cost of a back of the rotation starter these days? Wow, that seems like a lot for a 4 or 5 considering that Heilman could be a 4 or 5 and Milledge is going to be at least league average for low money in the outfield. Feels like maybe Billy Beane wrote that line.
I think he means in how much Haren would cost in money, but I also think he’s kinda wrong about that….
not a back of the rotation starter…haren is an ace at the cost of a back of the rotation starter hes making like 3 or 4 mil for the next 2 yrs or so.
Completely agree 7-Train…
The “price” referred to in the article is the money Haren is due in the next few years, not the cost in players to trade for him. And Davidoff does not regard Haren as a back-of-the-rotation starter; though he’s priced like one.
I had to read it twice, too.
Mulvey is projecting to perform higher then a lot of scouts initially believed and is likely our best pitching prospect at the moment.
I don’t understand this idea of “you need to fix the bullpen but it doesn’t matter who you put in there”. I mean I understand that shoring up the rotation will put less stress on the bullpen, you have to find some quality arms to put in the pen. Otherwise we’ll have a repeat of last year.
Middle relievers are, almost by definition, marginal pitchers. It’s more important to stockpile live arms than to spend money on big contracts and wind up hamstrung because you’re unwilling to cut your losses on a guy like Mota. You need the flexibility to shake things up in case of a freak occurrence like last year, when every single guy in the bullpen fell apart in the second half.
exactly….go to baseballreference.com, and just take a look at the top non-closer relief pitchers from year to year. With very few exceptions, it changes drastically every year, and even the best middle-relievers rarely have more than 2 or 3 good seasons in a row. That’s why it’s ridiculous to throw lots of money at guys who have been good the last few years (see: Mike Stanton) and is much better strategy to pick up a lot of arms and see which ones stick.
ONe thing that scares me is Omar’s motivation. It was either this article, or the one by Stark on ESPN right now, that harps on the idea that Omar needs to make a “big splash”.
That usually translates into wildly overpaying for a big name, just because they are a big name, with no regard to the big picture health of the team (current year + the future).
ALso usually the domain of a GM that doesn’t expect to be around to care about future years, unless their gamble pays off.
Kind of like the guy that lost most of the rent money at the track, so they bet their last $100 on a long shot to win it all back, or their wife will kill ‘em!
ALso unlike what Omar earned his genius tag from, which was avoiding stupid moves that cripple the team, and looking to get value, even if it wasn’t the sexiest name. Production over hype.
So, if he is not going to shoot the wad on a big splash trade just to say he got an Ace, then the team is in trouble. Steve Philips, V. 2.0
The Omar we used to know and love would have crunched the numbers and his scout instincts, and determined that, say, Garza was likely to out perform Haren in 2008, and try to get him for 1/2 the price.
you mean the Omar that ignored all warning signs and signed Pedro and Beltran so he could “restore credibility” to the Mets?
haren’s looking more and more appealing to me. I’m thinking Bedard too. I just have this feeling Santana will either go nowhere, or not be worth it if he does. But that’s probably just rationalization because he’ll likely end up somewhere else. 7 years and that money plus all those prospects though? meh.
I like the Alou signing…it’s tough not to really. I say keep L-Millz too and then the outfield is full. Fill the bullpen with Pelf and Humber and maybe some other couldn’t-make-it-as-a-starter kind of guys.
*yawn* the hot stove is already starting to bore me, how many days to pitchers and catchers??
You can’t assume Omar said that we are getting a “Frontline starter” this offseason and Milledge and Heilman won’t be on the bus into another state.
What the Mets do, relies heavily on the Dodgers.
The Angels are apparently close to a deal with the Angels for Cabrera.
If the Dodgers go for Johan Santana, Dan Haren, Joe Blanton, or Miguel Tejada, then the Mets can feel free to go for Erik Bedard.
But the Mets are going to trade Milledge and Heilman. The real question is, to what team? Milledge, Heilman, Mulvey and Gotay could be sent to the A’s for Haren, but the O’s will want more, like Milledge, Heilman, Pelfrey and Gotay.
With Omar, I wouldn’t be surprised that he convinces a team to part with their big name pitcher for Gomez, Heilman, Pelfrey and someone else.
Ho, forgot one point. Omar’s big splashes, to date, have only cost $$. Beltran, Pedro, etc. were major peices added to the team, but it didn’t require creating gaping holes elsewhere on the team, or clear cutting the farm system.
ok didn’t see this comment before I commented on your other comment. Comment.
I agree with you somewhat, but at the same time, there’s nobody out there on the free agent market that Omar can pick up that will really upgrade the team. After the way last season ended, are you really comfortable with the team that is currently assembled going into next season? It’s basically the same team, only without their most reliable starter (in terms of innings pitched, anyway), with a possible downgrade at catcher, and other pitchers and players who are just a year older. If Minaya doesn’t make some moves this offseason, there’s no reason to believe this team is anything better than a 3rd place team.
Heilman, Milledge, and Mulvey would be the going rate for a back of the rotation starter?!
If that’s the case, Livan Hernandez ain’t looking so bad.
On second thought, why not just slot Heilman into that role and hang on to Mulvey and Milledge? At least, theoretically, it would only cost you half that to trade for a reliever to fill in at Heilman’s current spot in the bullpen.
I have a trade how about reyes,main,pelfrey and joe smith for kazmir and crawford
Even assuming we’d want to take that deal, Tampa affords Reyes how exactly?
Haren is a back of the rotation starter? Get real. He’s very good and would only benefit by coming to the NL.
Haren would win 20 games next year and have a 3.00 ERA on the Mets. But I guess Heilman and his two pitches could do the same thing…….
Lol.
Who even mentioned Haren?
Exactly, CW. As long as everyone seems to be so willing to give up Heilman, whether you use him in a deal or move him to the 5th spot, either way you will need to replace him in the pen as the set up guy. So I like CW’s suggestion.
I also am not sold on trading Heilman – he did give up some bloopers but so did everyone else and he was the most reliable reliver for us in the long run next to Wags. Why use him to get Haren – that is like robbing Peter to pay Paul.
How about Haren and Landon Powell for Millegde Heilman and Humber
Ladon Powell is a AA Catcher for the A’s and he hit .292 with 14 hrs…the year before he hit .264 with 16 hrs so we could see maybe another power hitting catcher
Sounds good to me.. we could throw in Johnathan Neise too.
Good Luck, Billy Beane is trading away someone like Haren only to get promising prospects and cut costs. Powell a (for now..) cheap, young talent and trading him would oppose Beane’s entire direction and cause a hole in their system at catcher. I’d like him to be a met too though. If that trade was available, as a Met’s fan I’d take it in an instant.
If we’re looking to benefit from a trade, we need to ignore the Athletics.
Beane is too bright.
Beane knows what he wants. It’s remarkably similar to what any team would want from the Mets:
Milledge, Heilman, and prospects. Bill Beane is smart, but he isn’t God.
A good reliever means next to nothing compared to a starting pitcher…..Anyone who is afraid of dealing Heilman in order to secure starting pitching is a FOOL….Relief pitchers dont win you the division….YES, the Bosox pen was outstanding in the playoffs, but it was because they were used appropriately, due to excellent starting pitching…..It STARTS with the starters, PERIOD…..My opinion is shocking perhaps, but Id deal Gomez and Humber for Garza, AND do milledge, heilman, gotay, and Pelfrey for Haren…..In the meanwhile, Id sign Andruw Jones……When the Red sox dealt Hanley, they were dealing their future, “oh dreaded no dealing your future away!” And what it did was got them a W.S. championship…..Id rather have a World Series Ring NEXT year, than the possibility of getting close in 5 years.
No one on the market has shown the ability to dominate in October like Beckett did with the Marlins.
No offense to Santana, but until he’s turned into Koufax in October, Beckett is on another level.
I said nothing of Santana…..And it is irrelevant to my point, which is that if you DO get solid starting pitching, they improve your bullpen DRAMATICALLY, not the other way around…..Its trickle down pitchenomics……..Just b/c someone may not be as dominant as beckett in october doesnt negate the principle of strong starting pitching = stronger pen.
Did you watch down the stretch when our bullpen blew game after game of solid starts?
You need good starting pitching AND a good bullpen, sacrificing your pen to improve your starters does not improve your team as a whole.
Oh, and the Boston bullpen isn’t good because of starting pitching, it’s good because it’s built properly and loaded with talent. In case you haven’t noticed, starters who go the distance are a thing of the past, and bullpens are getting more popular every year, without a good bullpen it doesn’t matter who started, period.
Just look at Glavine’s first bid for 300 in Milwaukee, lots of good that great starting pitching did for us.
When you constantly have to bring guys in during the 5,6,7,8 and 9th innings, you destroy your bullpen….This is what happened to us….Also, it got in their heads that the game would be dependent on them NOT giving up a run, and what do you know, theyd come in and do just that, b/c they were overworked and put in tough spots…..And about glavine, it was his miserable starting pitching that ended our season….What if that game is Santana, Dan Haren, or Bedard?
Finally, when you rely on basically a 3-man rotation for most of the year, you spread everything thin, and create a pressure on the bullpen that is not necessary…..Forget the bullpen, for now….The more important issue is STARTING pitching, do you agree???
3-man rotation?
I don’t know where you get some of this stuff. No one’s arguing starting pitching isn’t important, but you need a balance between the two, it’s not cut and dry like you think it is. This isn’t the middle of the 1900’s, pitchers are lucky to go 6 or 7 innings, a bullpen is just as important as starting if not more.
id def have to agree with you…i think the bullpen is more valuable that you suggest bc we showed that in 2006 but id def package heilman for haren and id love to get garza as well…i dont see why the twins would really do that being that theyre gonna have to get rid of santana but if for some reason they did so be it. Even if we had to put a guy like shawn green in right again and rely on sanchez and padilla coming back healthy. A rotation of pedro haren maine ollie and garza is rediculous and then you can have el duque in the pen who atleast for 1 yr i think can do just as good as heilman did which wasnt that good to begin with… His era looked good but if you watchd every game you know that heilman cost us a bunch of games.
Milledge, Heilman, Mulvey and Gotay for Haren.
Sign Miguel Cairo and Kosuke Fukudome or a less big time solution like Milton Bradley or Eric Hinske
You must really want that 49-44 career starter.
You must really want that 15-13 starter in Santana.
My point: Wins and losses don’t mean anything for a pitcher.
ERA, K/BB rate, WHIP and IP, however, matter very much.
Haren had a post-ASB ERA of 4.15 and BAA of .298.
He’s never had a dominant year from start to finish.
You trade
Milledge, Heilman, Humber, Muniz/Gotay
for
Haren
then you sign jason jennings put el duque in heilmans spot and sign dotel for 1 yr + option and randolph has to gain more faith in smith!!!!!
Rotation/Bullpen
Haren
Pedro
Maine
Perez
Jennings
Wagner
Sanchez
El Duque
Dotel
Schoeneweis
Feliciano
Smith
One will be injured either starter or releiver so then u use Pelfrey
Dotel is looking for a multiyear deal. And the sad thing is, he’ll get it.
I like the Jason Jennings signing. Everything i have been reading about him is saying bounce back year for sure and he did have good numbers before injury. Don’t trade away the farm system its not smart. I watched Mulvey pitch several times this past season and he is a solid 4 starter for us. Pelphrey has number one stuff and if we cant fix his head someone else will. Humber is also a battler and can work into this rotation as well. We need milledge because as of now none of the other outfielders have proven they can hit major league pitching. Last but not least, please remember that this team fell apart last season. It took the largest collapse ever to knock us out of the playoffs. Meaning we have talent, we just might need a little infusion of toughness.
You are giving up too much for Haren.
Jason Jennings is crap.
I’d rather start Pelfrey. They’re both 5 ERA pitchers to date aren’t they?
I’d rather just put Sosa in the bullpen than Dotel.
In what world does Philip Humber have any trade value whatsoever? The Mets will probably have to part with Mulvey or Pelfrey to get Dan Haren. Muniz has no value, just put Gotay there and that package could get you Haren.
I’m still sold on hoping the Dodgers land Santana. Then we can set our sights on Bedard.
Oh-so because he’s a sports writer everything he writes is what the mets should do?These guys love making stuff up and feeding it to us.The Mets should have picked up the option on Alou.
Chances are this is not going to be the year he stops hitting and he’ll get injured again before he stops hitting.
I believe the trade is going to come out of nowhere for a pitcher and all of this Santana talk is just that talk.
There is no way the Mets ever trade Reyes unless they have someone better to take his place.
JM
Very rarely do aces get traded out of nowhere.
The fact is, knowing Billy Beane, the cost of Haren is going to be around 4 solid young players. But that’s only if the Dodgers are thinking Bedard.
If the Dodgers are thinking Santana or Haren, then we are the front runners for Bedard.
davidoff is a yankees fan….he’s just part of the media’ anti milledge bias
Come on. Whats wrong with doing….
Pelfrey, Gomez and Milledge for Haren
then
Humber and Deolis Guerra for Josh Hamilton
Look at the Mets Lineup:
1. Reyes
2. Castillo
3. Wright
4. Beltran
5. Delgado
6. Alou
7. Hamilton
8. Estrada
1. Haren
2. Ollie
3. Pedro
4. The Duke
5. Maine
And then next year we have 2 empty rotation spots, 2 empty outfield spots because Hamilton is trash, an empty first base spot, and an empty catchers spot, and our second baseman will only have infield singles, but we’ll have no 2 hitter to replace him.
That’s why not. I don’t see why you would do the same deal but take away Heilman, who is on the last year of his contract and will demand $$ or a starting spot, neither of which we will give him, and of course you want to give Pelfrey and keep Mulvey.
We’d be overpaying by a whole lot for both Hamilton and Haren.
Ollie has improved in 07… but him before Pedro? where is the justification?
Love the 1st 2 paragraphs of the article. Basically says he’s only bothering to write about the Mets because it’s a slow time.
Yet more evidence of the laughingstock-afterthought status Omar has allowed this team to descend back into
now where are we on d-triain at this piont?
That we could get a much better pitcher in the free agenct or via trade.
There’s an irony in the article about being the team to pick up a Heath Bell rather than the team to give one up, but at the same time, he advocates giving up Muniz for Contrera..
These should be Omar’s priorities and in this order:
1. Acquiring a stud-ace-lockdown-lights-out starter
2. Improving the bullpen
3. Reversing Jose Reyes’ rectal-cranial inversion problem
I like all, except for the Alou comment. It was a good move, given what the other options are.
Never delete any Cap’n. Must be the site.