…it appears that it will be, more or less, non-stop Johan Santana talk from now through the end of next week - and understandably so…
…first off, several people i have e-mailed asking about santana’s no-trade protection…from what i understand, he has full no-trade protection through the start of next season, but it does not extend in to 2008, because he did not finish in the top three during last year’s cy-young race…so, like several reports suggest, if he intends filibuster a trade by demanding a contract extension from his new team, it’s feasible that the Twins just wait, have him for opening day, then look to move at will during the middle of next season, i would think…
At any rate, over the weekend, according to Newsday, citing ‘a source,’ the Yankees plan to make a ‘good, strong offer,’ while they believe they have ‘more to offer the Twins in a trade than anybody else does.’
…well, that may be, but will they actually do it…i mean, i keep reading that the Yankees can offer Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera, but will they…personally, i still get no sense that they’ll trade away melky, and not because of any rumor or suggestion, but because they are unlikely to bet on Johnny Damon in center all season, and so who will play in his place…
Lastly, also over the weekend, ESPN.com’s Peter Gammons said that the Twins want Hughes, Cabrera and Austin Jackson, while Santana is seeking at least six years and $150 million.
However, at his blog for ESPN.com, Buster Olney writes:
“I’d be shocked if they seriously considered that trade…Even beyond the question of swapping promising young players like Hughes and Cabrera and Jackson, how much money does it save them to have cheap players on their roster? How much will it cost them to replace a Cabrera or Jackson? Without either Cabrera or Jackson, the Yankees might have to sign a veteran center fielder in his place in a year or two…And it’s possible that within three or four years, as Santana gets older and Hughes progresses, that Hughes might become something close to what Santana will be then. And you could say the same for Clay Buchholz.”
…exactly…on the other hand, i sense that the Mets are prepared to pull any trigger, not including David Wright or Jose Reyes in the gun…which is why i keep saying, it’s not so much about whether the Mets can top each team’s best package, it’s about who, besides the Mets, is willing to overpay in a trade to get him, knowing they can, but may not, re-sign santana to an extension…
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So lets see, you are supposed to to mortgage your entire teams future, including payroll, for a SP that is pushing 30, and can’t even finish in the top 3 in the Cy Young voting?
I hope the Yankees do get him, because this deal is quite likely to doom the Mets to missing the playoffs for years to come.
When they don’t have flexibility to add more payroll (yeah, I know about their “revenue streams”) since they do have a budget, even if the FA pool didn’t stink, and no players to call up or trade for other help, don’t complain to me!
Santana by himself isn’t going to be enough to acheive sustained (year after year success), and if they get him you can forget about any other moves, other than adding some cruddy SP like Livan or Garcia.
So first it was bad to get the best hitter in the game on our team. Now it’s a bad idea to have the best pitcher in the game on our team.
And that’s all because you’d rather hold onto a bunch of guys who may or may not become anything in the league?
I am not trying start an argument with you or anything, but it really seems like some of you guys want to be rooting for a small market team.
No, I wanted them to sign A Rod, since it was only Money (the one resource that the Mets really should have!), but largely because he would have made a big impact to the offense.
The issue with Santana that I was trying to raise was, if you give up a huge load of players 9as some people are suggesting), it pretty much limits what else you can do.
So, you end up with 1 SP, and the same holes/weaknesses you otherwise have, but with limited options for filling them.
The prospects aren’t held just because they will all becomre stars with the Mets, but also because they can be used to trade to fill other holes (and they supply depth).
The proposed Santana deals just seem like an awful lot of eggs in 1 basket that pitches every 5th day.
Now, if he was a FA and was looking for Zito + money (6/120), then yeah, fire up the old checkbook!
I would be surprised to see the mets offer more than gomez, pelfrey, carp & F-Mart…if that doesn’t get it done, then oh well, on to plan B… I mean plan A’s (Haren)
that most likely wont get it done, and frankly i dont care. we need an ace in the worst way but not THAT badly. its one thing to throw the farm at the guy but to throw the farm at someone and then NOT resign him talk about a franchise crippling move.
It doesn’t necessarily doom the team that “overpays” for talent. The Reds supposedly overpaid when they sent Dan Norman, Steve Henderson Doug Flynn and Pat Zachary to the Mets for Tom Seaver. It all depends on how the prospects pan out. The Hall of Famer usually delivers what he is expected to…..
Now in the case of Roberto Alomar………….
lol, I know thats why you said “usually”….
Good thing Alex Escobar sucked…..badly…..can’t miss…ya right
Injuries doomed Escobar.
God if the Yanks end up with Johan I’m gonna vomit all over myself..
And it sounds like they def might, esp if the Twins want to build a package around Cano.. the guy is super over rated…
Hopefully the Sox block the trade and get him instead.
Which does not mean i don’t want the Mets to get him.. I just don’t see it.
Here’s the most I would offer: Oliver Perez, Carlos Gomez, and Ruben Gotay. Three players, two of them ML-ready. The Twins replace Santana with Perez in the rotation (not a massive downgrade), and can console themselves with their leadoff hitter/gold glove CF of the future and a .295 bat at 2B with a little speed.
The Mets upgrade the consistency of the rotation substantially by replacing Perez with Santana, and it costs them no one they are counting on this year or in the future, as Gomez is blocked by Beltran, and Gotay by Castillo.
We still have Humber, Pelfrey and Milledge. Milledge we need to play RF, Humber and Pelfrey can be chips toward another, less-expensive SP, or perhaps we give Pelf a shot at starting, while Humber finds his way to the majors through the pen. Heilman gets a shot at starting as well, and with Santana, Pedro and Maine anchoring the first 3 slots, the Mets can afford to try a few things with Heilman and Pelfrey. The bullpen looks like Feliciano, Schoenweiss, Humber, Sanchez, Wags and someone else (need one more RHer). Matt Lindstrom would look pretty good there now. I wonder what Jason Vargas is worth?
I think Omar will still make some kind of deal for a #4 starter, but I hope and pray it’s not a trade for Blanton including either Milledge or Heilman. We need both of those guys. Rather see Pelfrey go.
Sometimes I wonder how Pelfrey would pan out as an eigth inning specialist? He appears to through hard enough for an inning or two.
this doesn’t sound half bad. one of the more interesting proposals (and reasonable from both sides) I’ve read here.
the only problem is OP is a free agent at years end so essentially theyd get him as a rental so i dont know how that would fly with them. i mean hes certainly going to be a ton cheaper than johan so maybe theyll resign him but im not sure.
yup, the Twins would want Maine instead of Perez because he is under club control for three years instead of one.
Would you make that deal? Maine, Gomez, Gotay?
No.
I’d try to sell em on OP first, but if they wanted Maine…
For Santana (and assuming he signs)? Yes. Yes I would.
the point of getting an ace is to add him to our rotation of pedro maine and perez, not trading one of them for an ace.
If I could turn John Maine into Johan Santanna, I would do that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
“The Twins replace Santana with Perez in the rotation (not a massive downgrade),”
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Um…that WAS a joke, right?
There are only a handful of pitchers in baseball that aren’t a massive downgrade…I think he meant relative to other pitchers the Twins could get in trade. That’s how I took it, anyway.
ok, put it this way: OP on his best days isn’t a massive downgrade from Santana. (On his worst, he isn’t a massive downgrade from Alay Soler, but who’s counting?)
Hey, I’m just tryin’ to swing a deal here!
I’m glad you said it or I was going to have to. I hope that statement was a joke. My God.
No. Again…if you trade Ollie or Maine, it defeats the purpose of getting Santana. You don’t trade your no.1 (or 2) to get your no. 1. Three steps forward; two and a half back.
(And he wants to add to that package when Ollie, a younger budding ace for most teams, by himself would thrill them.)
I wouldn’t trade Milledge either. We are going to need a right fielder, and Milledge was league average at 22 while seeing sporadic time batting eighth. After getting used to major league pitching, I wouldn’t be surprised if he posted an OPS+ of 125 for a significant chunk of the season.
I would make Pelfrey the centerpiece of the deal; and I might add Gomez to that mix, plus filler. Either that or just pull off a straight Gomez for Garza and forget Santana. (I can only imagine the offer the Yankees will make next year.)
if he hits the free agent market, the yankees will not only sign santana but tiexeira as well.
giambi, mussina, farnsworth, abreau are all free agents after next year.
almost 60 million dollars right there
Why would you not trade your #1or #2 for someone else’s #1, when their #1 is arguably the best pitcher in the game?
Because you yourself say he’s arguably the best pitcher in the game.
Because you are setting yourself back almost as much as you are pushing yourself ahead. If you lose Maine and get Santana, how much better are you than last year? You are better not by a Santana, but by 1/4th of a Santana. He’ll net you 3 wins over what Maine will do next year.
Also, I don’t know how Maine, a flyball pitcher, will do in Minnesota.
Because of a huge money differential. Maine is under your control for 3 years. Santana will demand a huge contract in ‘09. If you don’t give it to hem, you have lost Maine for nothing.
Is that enough reasons? There are more.
First, as I said, I would only do it if Santana signs. What do you mean better by 1/4 of Santana? The number of wins he gets? Wins are probably the least telling stat in baseball…but anyway, the larger point: what is the advantage of being a “big-market” team if you don’t use the resources to improve your club? Any pitcher…any pitcher–is going to get crazy money until some drastic event resets the market.
Listen, I like JM, and think he’s a valuable pitcher (and also, as I said, I’d prefer it to be OP in this hypothetical trade). He is no where near the pitcher JS is/has consistently been. JS (barring injury) is HOF caliber, and Maine is a nice young pitcher.
Would you spend $26M on a pitcher who will give you 3-4 more wins than Pelfrey?
Well that’s the same as trading Maine/Ollie for Santana. You are essentially buying 3-4 wins for $26M, in addition to losing 3 years of pitching (the age difference between the two). I’m also assuming that Maine and Ollie improve slightly while Santana begins to decline.
I’m not arguing that wins are a great way of judging a pitcher’s value. I’m not even saying that Santana will get 3 more wins than Maine. I’m saying that upgrading from Maine to Santana will land the Mets no more than 3 to 4 wins overall and that, far from being a useless stat, is the entire point of any move you make…winning games.
Also, unless the Yankees get Santana in ‘08, it’s a good bet that he’s going to free agency in ‘09.
im with you on everything up until the last line.. Who ever pays through the nose for Santana in prospects will give him a blank check,
He recently said that he will only approve a trade to a team that will give him the LT bucks,.
Odds are if the Dodgers or Yanks or Mets or whoever get him they’ll sign him. not a good bet for FA in 09
how in the world do you arrive at the conclusion that Santana will give the team 3-4 wins more than Mike Pelfrey?
Yes, winning games isthe whole point…so, ok, let’s say the Mets win 3 more games than they otherwise would have. Last season, for instance, that puts us in the post season. Is a shot at the World Series worth 26 million more a year? I think so.
I don’t know where you’re pulling your estimates from, but I think your logic is baffling. If you’re willing to spend the money on him in FA…I just don’t get it. Someone walks up to you and says “hey, I can turn three cheap years of John Maine into 4 expensive years of Johan Santana in his prime, plus a couple more years where he may or may not be quite that good” and you don’t do it.
Ok, different philosophies, I guess. I think you’re overthinking it. This would be like getting Tom Seaver back, though. (in fact, PECOTA has his top three comps as Sandy Koufax, Seaver, and Steve Carlton. But hey, Maine’s cheaper, so…)
how in the world do you arrive at the conclusion that Santana will give the team 3-4 wins more than Mike Pelfrey?
You’re missing my point.
My point is that you are basically paying $26M and giving up 3 years of pitching for 3-4 more wins. This is the difference between Maine/Ollie and Santana.
You of course trade Pelfrey and Maine for Santana,, because Santana could very well net you 8 more wins than Pelfrey. He will, however only net you 3 or so more wins than Maine/Ollie (assuming they continue to improve, which I think they will.)
So the effect is the same as trading Mike Pelfrey for a pitcher who is going to net you 3 more wins than Mike Pelfrey, except he is 3 years older and costs $26M more. Would you do that?
People overestimate the difference between the “best pitcher in the game” and an excellent pitcher. Santana>Maine, but not overwhelmingly. The real difference lies in the playoffs, where a great pitcher could net you two wins over a merely excellent pitcher. But if you’re no.3 (Perez) towers above any no.3 in the league (which he should), you neutralize the no.1 discrepancy.
If you pull off Gomez and change for Garza, either Garza or Perez could become a no.4, and you keep Milledge. Once you make some other additions like signing Tex, your team would have such dominating pitching depth and such dangerous hitting, that your supposed disadvantage in the no. 1 pitching slot is of little consequence.
I am absolutely missing your point.
I equate neither Maine nor Perez with “excellent pitcher”. Maybe they will eventually become excellent, but they are not. JM=pretty good, OP=hit or miss. And I still don’t know what you mean by “losing three years of pitching”. From what account is that theoretical loss drawn? Because Johan will be 29 and JM will be 27? I’ve said twice already I do this deal only if JS signs.
I wonder if you understand the value of wins. (not the counting stat for pitchers that I thought you were speaking of before, but of actual wins) You speak dismissively of “only” 3-4 wins. JS has been worth about 9 wins per over the last 4 years (last year being a “down” year of only about 6), and moving to the NL should offset any decline, at least over the life of this theoretical contract. Last year JM was worth about 3 wins. A difference in performance of 3 wins is huge. It’s the dif between Ted Lilly and Jake Peavy.
A difference in performance of 3 wins is huge. It’s the dif between Ted Lilly and Jake Peavy.
You have a point, but wins have economic value as well.
Set a baseline differential of 3 wins between Maine and Santana (based on Maine’s stellar 1st half last year and Santana’s nearing the end of his prime, I would say it’s reasonable). That’s at most $12M worth of pitching. Paying the Santana premium however, would put the price tag at about $8M per win. Even in the free agent market, the value is generally about $4M/win. You also don’t add depth to the rotation. And you lose 3 years worth of wins for the life of the contract.
Players at the top of the food chain always cost a premium, while a guy like Maine, who remains under the radar despite his general excellence (his stats are skewed by his post all-star break swoon) you can get at value.
However, pulling off a Gomez for Garza-like deal, or any other deal that does not cost you Maine or Ollie and gets you at least 3 wins in return will cost nothing, and you add depth to the rotation, and you will probably get more than 3 cost controlled wins from it. (Of course, then the issue becomes how many wins Gomez would have been worth.)
I’m for signing Santana because it means we will get Santana’s full worth (i.e. that 4-5 of his wins aren’t dumped in opportunity cost). That would be netting wins at around the going free agent rate of $4M per and keeping your depth. This rotation’s character is one of a depth rotation, and it’s better to play to your strengths than it is to change your identity.
And if you trade Maine for Santana, that’s all you trade for him.
But again, you have a point.
I understand that simply signing JS as a FA is the most desirable option. No one, except seemingly you, thinks that option will be available. All of teh reportage has said, in so many words, that no team will pay as high a price as the Twins are asking for a one year rental, and JS himself (or his ‘camp’) has said he wants an immediate, long term deal before he’ll agree to any trade.
I do not see rotation depth, I see five guys who–much of the time–struggle to get through the sixth inning and/or miss 3or 4 starts in a row. Again, I guess this is just a philosophical difference. I have no problem changing the identity of the staff if A. I can financially support it, and B. it leads to more wins. JM–>JS fits both those criteria.
From where are you assigning these costs? Where do you get “$12 mil worth of pitching”? And you keep referring to “losing three years of pitching”…? I don’t understand your accounting. Please clarify that.
1.) $12M = 3(the real win differential between Maine and Santana) * $4M (the cost per win in the current free agent market). Santana should cost Maine + $12M. He will cost Maine + over $24M until 2011 (I believe) when Maine hits free agency.
2.) The 3 years (it’s actually 2) age differential is actually trivial.
3.) I guess it is a philosophical difference. Here’s how I see it.
Anytime you add a pitcher, it’s an upgrade over the 5th starter, because he’s the Opportunity Cost (OC). Trading Maine for a pitcher makes our best (aside from Pedro) pitcher the OC.
So let’s say you add/trade for a low-cost no. 2 (Gomez and change for Garza would have been perfect). Your added pitching production is (we’ll call him Garza for simplicity) Garza – Humber, at a low price. If you do Santana for Maine, you get Santana – Maine at a very high price. You get more production (probably) at a much cheaper cost the second way. You can use the money (because we are budget constrained) for hitting or for more pitching in the future (maybe even Santana!) to further offset the loss of not having him.
Even if you are making it hard on yourself to beat the ace in a playoff series, you make it harder on their no. 2,3,and4 guys to beat Maine, Garza, and Ollie, in whatever order.
So I would say that the advantages of fortifying Maine and Ollie are greater than those of upgrading over them, when, in my view, there’s really not an overwhelming amount of room for upgrade.
And there is still a decent shot that either the Mets can get a better deal for Santana or he hits free agency. It depends on how much the Yankees are willing to overpay and how much the Twins want to press their luck. It would take a perfect storm; but it’s possible.
I’ll give ‘em Gomez and Pelfrey and change. Milledge and F-Mart for me are untouchable. If the Yanks are not willing to part with Joba or Cano, that’s as good as any other deal the Twins will see. Gomez>Melky.
well, though I disagree, that’s an interesting point of view. I actually believe the win dif would be closer to 5: giving JM a (generous) improvement of 2 wins, and expecting JS to return to form (if he moved to the NL, and probably just as a matter of course). But anyway,
I appreciate that you explained your position without condescension or acrimony.
curious as to how the value “4 mil per win” is derived.
I am with you on that Garza idea. I would rather give up less prospects for Garza, whom I think will pan out to be as good as Santana down the road. We keep Milledge for RF and Pelfrey, Humber, F-Mart, and Carp, and Mulvey. I like it. Gomez and Gotay for Garza. Get it done Omar!
This is the most sensible trade i have seen yet for Santana. Its not so much that i like giving up OIlie, because i do love his left handed stuff when he is on his game, but you got to give to get and he is expendable if you add Santana. Not only is Gomez blocked by Beltran, but he is also blocked by Milledge and chased down hard by F. Mart. Gotay is a prospect that I am not sure about what he can do yet and second base is set for most likely two years(can’t trust Castillo’s knees for four). Offer it, dont amend it by overpaying, and if worse comes to worse play the kids. I am definitely not advocating small market for our Mets, as evidenced by the fact i am ready to pay Andruw Jones in a second, but i think that losing several top prospects, 150+ million IF we can sign him long term, and then only having him every fifth day barring any arm breakdowns is just too much to give. A hitter hits every day of the year, pitchers every fifth day. Load the lineup to the gills, get pitching but keep reliable backups aplenty, and spend wisely so you can spend whenever necessary.
Cabrera is an AVERAGE player, okay. I am sick of people talking about him as if he has some value. He is average, and in the Twins lineup, his offense would decline. He is a decent fielder with a very good arm. Case closed. It is nice to see how the Yankees have so many writers working for them, pumping up their players all the time.. If the Twins took Cabrera and Hughes for Santana, they would be laughing stocks. It will be Cano and Hughes. MInimum. I would demand Chamberlain and Cano. Or Kemp and Billingsley. From the mets I would ask for Reyes and someone. Anything less and they are turkeys. This is the second best pitcher in the game
Any team that trades for Santana is taking the risk that he signs somewhere else as a free-agent after ‘08 (which after all is why the Twins are having to entertain offers for him in the first place). So the packages they will receive for him aren’t as great as they would be if he were under control for a few years. Reyes would be severely overpaying for Santana. He along with DW is the face of the Mets brand the Wilpons are building.
whatever team trades for him will give the Twins their best package and Johan a blank check.. .. signing with the new team is not an issue… he’s not seeing free agency in 2009 face it.
Why do so many Mets fans want to trade Oliver Perez? The kid is 25 and going to only get better. I don’t think we trade Perez in any deal unless someone is blowing us away. I would be more inclined to trade Pelfrey, Humber or Mulvey, who haven’t proven anything yet. I like Gomez and Milledge, but if we can get Santana but I prefer Haren myself, considering and age and money. No matter what we do I think we are going to have to get a free agent for right field, because I don’t think there is anyway we don’t trade Milledge and Gomez this winter…What would be nice is if Omar went less expensive and trade for Haren and Willis, which would probably take most of our prospects, then we could sign someone like Fukudome or Andruw Jones for RF…….don’t forget we still have to sign a couple RP
Twins want proven ML talent for Santana. Pelfrey, Humber or Mulvey don’t fit the bill. Perez does. He’s got a million dollar arm and a 10 cent brain. If Twins take that package we are insane not to do it.
Twins wont take OP.. he is too close to Free agency and makes too much monet. they want young CONTROLLABLE MLB talent.
in two years OP gets to test free agency if he doesnt sign long term.
I dont think people are looking to get rid of him, rather optimize his value. He is in the final year of his service time and will be a free agent, so trading him now makes a lot of sense to most teams. Since the Mets aren’t most teams, I dont think we’ll see him traded (unless the Mets totally tank in ‘08) or resigned when he hits the market. Someone will give him an AJ Burnett like contract and the Mets wont match it.
Just for some perspective… in his supposed off year he had a 1.073 WHIP! Guys, this is no Dan Haren… we need to give everyone and our mother to get him. Yes he gave up way too many homers last year, but in Shea you would think that would be somewhat neutralized. I mean, those are Pedro-in-his-prime type ridiculous numbers. Focus!
Year IP W L K’s BB HA ERA WHIP
2007 219.0 15 13 235 52 183 3.329 1.073
2006 233.2 19 6 245 47 186 2.779 0.999
2005 231.2 16 7 238 45 180 2.881 0.973
2004 228.0 20 6 265 54 156 2.605 0.921
2003 158.1 12 3 169 47 127 3.074 1.101
2002 108.1 8 6 137 49 84 2.997 1.230
thanks for this…I think in the void of baseball inactivity people tend to outthink themselves. Santana is Grade-A Prime Bonafide Number 1 Ace. Period.
unload BELTRAN
have to unload that no-trade clause we gave him first.
Your moniker doesn’t really suit you, does it?
It makes sense once your realize genius is from bizarro world.
If I’m the Yankees, I pay what I’ve got to pay in players and money and get him. After all, this isn’t Burnett we’re talking about here, it’s Santana. Of course, he could get injured or go into decline like anyone else, but if there ever is a guy to get, it is him.
As far as the Mets are concerned, it’s the same story, at least as far as the prospects are concerned pretty much. I have stated before that if we could have gotten A-ROD, then Reyes would have been our straight-up chip. I wouldn’t do a deal for Santana for very much without being able to sign him longterm. Otherwise, our best chance would be Maine or Perez, F Martinez, Gomez or Milledge and either Pelfrey, Humber or Mulvey – and maybe having to throw in Carp, too.
Why not throw in Mr. Met, the HR APple, and Fred’s parking spot too?
Carp has no value as a throw-in for a guy like Santana. He actually has no meaningful value in any deal, but especially in this kind of trade. He’s not even worth mentioning in the same paragraph.
1. trade milledge, heilman & a lower level prospect for haren
2. sign livan to anchor the back end of the rotation (cheaper option and he wants to pitch for us)
3. platoon gomez & chavez in RF while gomez gets accustomed to playing @ the MLB level
SP: haren, pedro, maine, ollie, livan, el duque (yes we need 6)
RP: pelfrey, feliciano, smith, sosa, scho (dangit!), sanchez (crosses fingers), wagner
The position players are obvious by now
Maybe sign Fukodome for RF and trade Gomez + for Garza, then we can forget about Livan eating innings and chicken wings
feel free to tell me I’m wrong, but I think it would be the smartest organizational move to steer clear of Johan only because it would cost too much depth
Haren is cheaper and under contract for 3 more years
then our organization still has some youth on the farm w/ potential: mulvey, F-Mart, guerra, humber
granted Johan is great, nothing short of incredible, but we can’t mortgage the organization for him to pitch every 5th day
I pretty much agree with your ideas, about mortgaging the future, keeping some depth, etc. Especially when talking about 1 SP.
One thing that worries me though is, is Haren really going to be that stud/Ace/Horse tht he is considered to be? He really hasn’t put together a full dominant year, and was somewhat iffy in the 2nd half of 2007.
But, that could be a product of his age. If he has the tools, he is approaching the age (25-29) where he could really put together his peak stretch of pitching. Same with Maine and Perez, and basically what Santana just finished.
Given the cost in players now + payroll over the next 5 years, the question becomes, do you want a cheaper (theoreticlaly!) Dan Haran for the next 5 years of his prime (26-30), or Santana for much more, in his post-prime, starting to decline period (29-35).
if you want an established ace, you have to overpay (i.e. Santana); whereas if you trade for haren who has ace potential (solid), then you can pay less overall…in a perfect world, we would have 5 aces (like some people on this site would like), but reality is you have to take chances, and I feel as though Haren is a calculated chance that he will succeed…remember, the AL has a tougher road for pitchers Haren would be protected a little more in the NL and as he progresses, as you suggest above, he can round into that ace form
I am not sure that really holds up for Haren. He pitches in the AL West, which is full of weak offenses, He also pitches his home games in Oakland, which is an extreme pitcher’s park.
While the move to the NL will probably help his numbers a little, I am not sold that it will be a dramatic difference.
He’s still a frontline guy either way, however. I would just be wary of an extreme overpayment.
Dan Haren is a swing and miss guy with Ace potential. I think we should make a move and get him. Santana is too expensive….in terms of prospects.
1. Milledge + Heilman = too much for Haren.
2. Livan would be a good signing for the Mets.
3. Gomez and Chavez in RF is the weakest hitting corner OF in baseball. That is a punch and judy show. If your RF is your #8 hitter, you have a power shortage.
The Mets would be better off trading Gomez in a package for Santana than Milledge for Haren. We need Mills for RF now, whereas Gomez has no position here. Trading Heilman creates a crater in our already bombed out bullpen. Haren has one good year under his belt, and gives up more homers than Heilman, yet everyone throws Aaron into that deal as an afterthought. Heilman has better peripherals than Haren over the last three years.
milledge is good, don’t get me wrong, but remember, gomez is 21 and can improve, but all those supposed rules of where power is supposed to come from on the field, where does it say that your CF should hit 35-40 hr? isn’t that what the corner OF should produce? so then one replaces another, plus, maybe we can sign fukodome for power
vinluvr, i totally agree with wha youre saying about heilman. i feel alot of fans undervalue him as a pitcher bc hes ‘just a middle reliever’. in my opinion hes been the most consistent pitcher on our entire staff for the past 2 years. and hes one of if not the best set up guys in he NL. consistent relievers are not very common, so if youre going to trade one it better be worth it.
True, except that with Alou certain to be injured for some time this coming year, your 5th outfielder (Gomez) is really your 4th1/2 outfielder.
That said, if he can bring back Garza, Blanton, or Haren, let him go.
poonjabee
I totally agree
Prospects: Santana and Haren will most likely cost us similar packages. Beane likes Milledge, Twins like Gomez, but in the end the value is going to be the same.
I would not pull the trigger unless I can sign Santana. Any trade requires a window, or no deal.
Haren is under control for what, 3 years? A much better option
IMO, I think if you threw them each 30 starts, the Mets would win 20 games. Who really is more valuable?
If you can get either without sacrficing Pelfrey or Humber, then I’d be willing to let one of them have the fifth spot.
I’m prepare to give up this package for the Twins’ southpaw:
1) Rick Aguilera
2) David West
3) Kevin Tapani
4) Jack Savage
5) Tim Drummond
Guys, is 5 young pitchers too much?
that Sweet Music trade worked out really well for the Mets huh?
Twins win the WS in 1991 .
Viola gets Tommy John Surgery.
Mets doomed to 10 years of mediocrity..
But but but we needed a BONA FIDE ACE!!!
The Mets are not going to trade for Johan Santana, as much as they would like to. They just don’t have the chips to trade.
Their only shot at getting Santana is one year from now as a free agent. They have to hope that he doesn’t sign with anyone until then, and then hope that they can offer him enough money to make him choose the Mets over more glamorous offers from the Yankees and Red Sox.
The way I see it, this guy is never going to wear a Mets uniform in all likelihood. This story ends one way or the other with Santana in pinstripes or in Beantown. Omar should take his best shot and do everything in his power to try and get Santana, but realistically, we should be trying to acquire someone more realistic, like Dontrelle Willis.
Willis?
I’m wondering if a fellow blogger was right: Willis has grown into manhood and it’s messed with his mechanics. Have you ever seen a figure skater get taller? I remember when Irina Slutskaya was 14. She was a Pixie. As she got taller, she became awkward. It took her years to figure out how to skate in an adult body (I’m aware she was sick, too). Willis is going to have to learn to be effective wi9th out some of the gyrations he had when he was younger. I’ll pass.
I prefer Haren. Can live with Blanton, but please don’t try to sell me on a project.
How about someone realistic that actualy can still pitch?
Pretty weird that Willis now a 25 YO, LHP, former Cy young winning reclamation project, that hasn’t even suffered a catastrophic injury!
Frankly, I would be happy to see Omar make some more reasonable moves to pick up guys that aren’t on the short list 9Santana, haran, etc.) that you have to drop you shorts for, but can come close in performance (or do better).
Willis should fall into this catagory, although Fla. seems to think he is still interchangeable with Santana!
Hopefully Omar will zag while the other teams are zigging, and snap up someone like Snell from the Pirates. Or garza from the Twins.
Wouldn’t say gomez + Humber + Carp for Snell make this team a whole lot better, while keeping the cream of the prospects that can help right now?
Of course, I haven’t fully researched Snell, and have no idea if this package is exactly what is needed to get the deal done, I am just using him as an example of a young, emergining potential ace/top line starter, that may be gettable for way less than the cost of a Santana.
Someone to build into the rotation as a foundation piece for years to come. With any luck, Pelfrey joins them soon.
Man, a core of Maine, Perez, Pelfrey (if he puts it together) + Snell/Garza/mystery man SP, to go along with Pedro, and whoever they can land next year in FA (top guys, not stiffs) could be awesome for years to come.
That would be just like Omar, since Willis stinks
Dontrell. Willis. Has. Sucked. Badly. For. Some. Time.
Pelfrey is a better bet than Willis, at this point, particularly for the money
As I hear it, Sanatana does have full no-trade protection. If so, it’s going to be awfully hard for the Twins to deal him on their own terms. The winning bidder will have to:
a. possess and be willing to deal the best package of prospects,
b. be acceptable to Santana (and who really knows what his priorities are?), and
c. have the resources AND the payroll flexibility to make an immense long-term offer to Johan.
If any one of those conditions is not met, there’s no deal.
Johan is in the driver’s seat.
So this smells like he either stays with the twins until at least the trade deadline (IIRC, his No trade doesn’t extend past opening day), or he goes to the Yankees.
I vote Yankees. They do have the players to give up ( a big advantage to them of signing A Rod to provide offense). They also need him, bad.
Think about the Yankees vs. the Mets, and the yankees need an established SP way more than the Mets (and yes, I am aware that the Mets need Aces! Aces! Aces!).
The Mets have Pedro, a wild card, as a veteran vs. Mussina who is shot.
Beyond that, the Mets at least have 2 guys that, while sometimes inconsistant, at least have established themselves as legit upper-rotation ML starters (maine and OP). Then a touted but un proven rookie, and El Duque is still an effective starter.
The Yankees, beyond Mussina, have what, 4 rookies? Joba, with a Prior-esqu injury history? Anyone think he will hold together for 30+ starts? Hughes has stuff, but again, can he handle the load (see Maine last year). And Kennedy is average at best (probably no better than Humber).
THey still have Pavano for the 5th spot?
So, the Evil Empire has some highly regarded prospects, and a rotation with an old shot guy, 3 rookies, and a rehab special? Don’t think so.
I’m sure the Yankees can afford to let Cano go and will pick up someone serviceable, or go with a young glove guy (no idea if they have that prospect or not).
So, Hughes + Cano + something for Santana? Yeah, the Yankees can do that, and it will make them better. Plus they will sign up for 6/150 without batting an eyelash.
Unless you count Milledge, the mets don’t have a young, cheap, controllable ML player right now to trade, unless you gut the rotation, which really can’t happen.
You can’t talk about Yank pitching and leave Wang out.
Oops. Forgot him. Mussina is so bad, he is in the Livan Hernandez catagory (but gets paid like Santana!).
Wang is their only legit starter then, so it isn’t quite so bad.
Still, Wang, 3 rookies and Mussina? Still nto happening.
Correct. The Yanks have the offensive power to trade offense for Santana without getting seriously hurt. They might not trade Cano, but Abreu or Matsui plus cash, plus Hughes + filler is a possibility.
The Mets need all the offense they can get right now, and Milledge has too much potential to let him go. Fukodome will be 20 times as expensive, older (thus less upside) and possibly league average. With Delgado as a question mark and Alou out for half the year, they’ve got Beltran, Reyes, and Wright period; and Reyes now is a bit of a question mark as well.
The Yanks, besides Wang, have no established pitching. But they have several excellent prospects to trade.
The Mets have Pedro, Maine, and Ollie as established pitchers who are untradeable, even if the latter two are a bit inconsistent, they both won as many games last year as Santana. that’s worth something. They, however, have 2 prospects to trade, and both of them are questionable, meaning that they have to be tested to see if they can hit their ceilings.
Santana is a perfect fit for the Yanks, who will almost certainly offer him $25M+ per year to stay with them.
One can hope that Santana tests the market anyway–which remains a good possibility–and that Sabathia hits the market as well. Otherwise, Santana is IMHO as good as a Yankee, and the evil empire’s payroll will hover around $250M
rolling over to hit snooze button.
what, the rehashing of the same conversation for the 400th time doesn’t keep you awake?
Any discussions of what it would take to land Santana or Haren have to be approached very differently. The A’s still control Haren for a few more years at a very reasonable price and look like they may be in full rebuilding mode with no particular chance to win their division in the immediate future. They can very well keep Haren if they want to and get lots of good value from him- the only reason they might trade him now is that the relatively thin SP market might mean a better return for him this off-season than next, when there will be more attractive options available to other teams. Getting Haren means offering the A’s a package that gives them long-term value greater than that of Haren himself being affordable for the next few seasons.
Trading for Santana is totally different- now that he’s rejected their long-term offer, they need to trade him now or at the deadline in order to get any value for him at all, and they have a pretty good team with some young stars and a new stadium on the way. They’re not rebuilding and they are forced to take whatever the best offer for Santana is whether they get equal talent in return or not. The question with Santana isn’t what they consider an even trade, it’s just reliant on what other teams are offering. If the Yanks only offer talent like Cabrera, the Mets might be able to get him with just Gomez and Mulvey-types. If they’re really offering one of their “big three” pitching prospects, we’d have to go much higher (or possibly just start looking elsewhere). We just have to offer more than other teams and keep in mind that the Twins have greater need for MLB-ready prospects than the A’s given their relative hopes for the near future.
Good analysis, but the key point is that, if the Yanks don’t bite, the Twins won’t likely accept Gomez + Mulvey types. They will keep Santana, look to win in 2008, and either trade him at the deadline, but more likely ride it out and take the draft picks.
Remember, there is a new GM in Minn., the new stadium coming, etc. So they are likely to be very sensitive to the impression they are giving by moving Santana
They really will have to be offered an overwhelming package that they can legitimately claim will make them a better team in 2008 then they would be with Johan. And that means ML experienced guys to plug right in.
I agree that if they can’t get what they want now they’ll wait until the deadline, but I can’t imagine that they’ll just take the draft picks. The difference between what they could get in mid-season- especially when there will be several teams in desperate need of immediate help and Santana no longer has a no-trade clause- and what they will get with a first-round and a sandwich pick would just be too much to turn down. As I said earlier, however, they certainly will need MLB-ready guys they can play right away, which the Mets may have more of by mid-season depending on how the first half goes for us and our young players…
why not Haren AND Santana?
Heilman, Milledge, and Mulvey to the A’s for Haren
Maine, Gomez, and Gotey (or FMart if they insist) to the Twins for Santana.
This gives the teams the proven young players they want, and lets the Mets keep thier prospects who lost value last year (Pelfrey)
2008 rotation: Santana, Haren, Perez, Pedro/Pelfrey/Duque
of course these moves would completely empty the farm system of good prospects, and Heilman is harder to replace than people realize, and Santana, Perez, and Pedro would all be free agents after 2008. But with a chance to have those two starters at the front of your rotation for years to come, I think you have to go for it.
opinions?
At least it is interesting. Might even make sense, in the “stand pat or go all the way” mode. That could also be a devastating rotation.
But, can the rest of the team hold together, and will they be able to fill any holes (or do you pray for no injuries).
You will need to sign a FA RF. And they payroll will take a hit, especially if you bring back OP and Pedro.
But, with Santana, Haran, OP (who IMO will put it all together in 2008) and Pedro (assuming he stays healthy), you will win a lot of games.
And, Pelf and El Duque can hadnle the 5 hole, so no need for a Livan type.
If you did these moves, and say signed Fukudome for RF, and somehow filled the holes in the pen (Sanchez healthy would be a key), then hope like heck the team stays ehalthy, they should be OK.
Oh, and assuming Pedro stays healthy and Pelf. takes a step up, there should be a lot less strain on the BP!
Really no fall back though for injuries, and who knows how they fill holes in LF and 1B in 2009 (or 2008, when Delgado and Alou get hurt!)
No more Santana.
Make a couple of small trades.
Trade for Harden, yes the injury plagued Harden. When healthy he is a true Ace. He should not cost much as the A’s are guessing they will go without him. Heilman and Mulvey should do it.
Trade for Garza or Snell with a package of Gomez, Pelfrey and a prospect.
Sign Garcia or Colon.
Then your SR
Pedro
Harden
Maine
Perez
Garza
If Harden is healthy, that rotation is dominant. If not then Elduque comes back into the rotation or Garcia/ Colon move into the rotation.
This does not lock you up long term and allows you to keep Milledge while adding 2 quality pitchers to the rotation.
Not a bad approach. But I’d be concerned about having three starters (Harden, Duque, and Colon/Garcia) who are serious injury risks.
It’s true that they could back one another up, and the the odds are small that all three would go down at once. But I think there’s a psycholgical and motivational toll on the whole team when you have so many fragile starting pitchers.
I think with us still having Pelfrey, Humber and or Mulvey that we could survive an injury. It also gives us depth incase Pedro goes down as well. I am just trying to think of options that does not deplete the entire farm.
I meant one of the 3 young pitchers. I have no idea what it would take to get Harden. Maybe even Heilman and Gotay type prospect?
Colon = fat, untalented, gutless slob. He would fit right in with our team. Get him, Omar.
Again he would just be a cheap insurance policy similar to Sosa. He would not pitch unless someone got injured and would still be better than Brian Lawrence.
Somebody on this blog (VCarver?) once observed that the Mets played unispired baseball whenever Moises Alou was on the DL. The implication is that the team didn’t really see itself as “complete” without Moises and was coasting until he came back.
Don’t know if there’s any truth to this, but it’s an intriuging consideration and might give a GM pause before taking on too many injury risks in the rotation.
I think its different for a rotation guy. When you go out everyday and the lineup is missing the protection of Alou its not the same as Elduque coming in for an injured Harden.
I think we should sign Silva and Garcia or Colon. Then trade a lesser package for Harden. I know Harden is an injury risk but I would think that with Elduque, Pelfrey , Mulvey and Humber still in the system and signing an innings eater would alow us to take that risk. He is absolutely dominant when healthy and just might be the ace we are looking for. If not then we look to make a trade midseason. How about Heilman and a prospect?
With Sanchez improving and Elduque moving to the pen that would give room for Heilman to be traded.
A rotation of
Pedro, Maine, Perez, Harden, Silva would not be bad at all. Then if Harden is injured you still have Pelfrey, Humber, Colon/Garcia and Elduque.
We would still have all of our main prospects to trade midseason if needed.
The A’s may be intrested in unloading Swisher’s contract. He would be a good fit for the team as a back up 1B and OF. A trade of Gomez and Heilman for Harden, Swisher and a prospect would have to be intriguing for Beane. Gets rid of 10 million in salary for cheap MLB ready players.
Mets get to add Swisher to the line up and the potential of Harden.
this is intriguing. I like the out of the box thinking.
Omar just said that he was going to get a front line starter.
he never said it had to be one of the ultra-expensive, marquee guys!
I might do Gomez for Garza instead of Harden though. maybe not quite the potential (although he might have it), but way less risk!
I agree I would rather have Garza as well. That is all depending on Santana, however. If he stays then Garza is available. If not then no Garza.
I would do both.
Gomez and prospect for Garza
Heilman and prospect for Harden.
What I despise the most is these so called experts saying that the Yankees won’t do this because in 3-4 years Hughes might be just as good as Santana. What in the past 10 years shows that the Yankees care about this? They will pay up the nose for whomever they feel will do the job. And if in 3-4 years Hughes is great then they’ll go and buy him back. They lose nothing.
I agree 100%.
Forget it. We are not getting Santana. Not worth the price.
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