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Over at Minor League Ball, prospects analyst and author John Sickels gives his Mets’ top 20 prospects list, ranked by his unique letter grading system.
Topping his list, with B+ grades, are OF Fernando Martinez and RHP Deolis Guerra, followed by OF Carlos Gomez and RHP Kevin Mulvey, both given B’s but with the potential to be bumped up to B+ in Sickels’ yearly prospect book, which is due out in February.
…note that because of service time accrued, OF Lastings Milledge and RHP Mike Pelfrey did not qualify for the list…
On the system as a whole, Sickels states:
“There is some nice pitching in this system, but depth in position players is very weak. Overall the system is better than it looks at first, but lack of hitting depth is a problem, and I hate the way they rush some of their prospects.”
…later this week, i’ll have an interview with sickels about his take on the Mets farm system…
…given the questions about the team’s lack of depth, the list is a lot more promising than one might initially anticipate…unlike Baseball America, sickels ranks 1B Nick Evans in the top ten…after evans’ strong year in the extreme-pitcher friendly Florida State League, i agree with sickels…
…as with all of these Mets lists, you get the feeling there will be significant upheaval and change in the next year or two, as the top-level guys such as Carlos Gomez and Phil Humber graduate for good (or are traded); the nearly ready 2007 draftees start seeing big-league time; and the big latin classes signed over the past two summers start to see significant time stateside…
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OK I have racked my brain for the past hour with a fellow co worker .. and we both feel that Santana is not coming to the Mets ..I however think an offer of Pelf,Humber,Gomez,Fmart,and Heilmann would do it….I mean we would be giving up a lot…but the Twins would probably not be interested anyways bcuz every writer in America thinks our prospects stink. My co-worker and I both believe Haren,Harden,Blanton, or Willis is the way to go ..while signing Livan, Colon, or Silva…..time will tell…but Im really hoping we get some answrs soon…as loyal die hard fans …and after the collapse….we deserve it.
IMO, Pelf,Humber,Gomez,Fmart,and Heilmann is too much to give up. Hurts the depth, and creates holes at the ML level.
But beyond that, the real comparision is, what could you get instead for this group?
Say you could get 2 guys like Garza, Blanton, + some other help. Is that worth more than just Santana?
That, to me, is the big problem with these “give everyone and their brother” deals. It pretty much means that is your only deal.
I would rather try to swing deals for Garza and either Haren or Bedard than to empty the cupboard for Santana. One big reason for this is that I really don’t like the idea of giving a six- or seven-year contract (at a monstrous yearly salary) to *any* pitcher. The risk of injury is there with any pitcher, and (though I’m not an expert) it seems that guys who throw a lot of changeups are susceptible.
Garza, Haren, and Bedard would all be under control for at least a couple of years.
Every year, prospects, especially lower level ones, have break out seasons and leap up these lists.
A year ago. Mulvey was no where to be found for instance.
SO quite possibly, some guys have big years and grow into their talent, and suddenly the system doesn’t look so bad.
This is especially true since the Mets have a lot of intriguing young players that could rocket up the prospect radar next year.
Lucas Duda, Nathan Vineyard, Ruben Tejada, Wilmer Flores, etc…
It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I think the Mets should sign Silva and then see what it takes to trade for Harden. With SIlva, the Mets would be getting an innings eater who will most likely put up numbers comparable or slightly better than Glavine. With Harden, if we could ever get him healthy for a season, he could be the legit #1 we need. I know it is a big if in keeping him healthy, but i think it might be worth taking a chance on him if we cant land santana or another #1 type
Silva stinks. I would rather take a flyer on Colon for a year, and would be happy to roll the dice with Pelfrey/Humber, etc. instead of Silva.
I honestl hope we avoid having to sign Silva…I would rather try and fix Dtrain…I mean the guy can rake at least……I highly doubt Santana dons orange and blue……I see him as a dodger or Yank..period….other then that ..I think we could land Dtrain and Haren maybe , but then we prob wont have Millz…but maybe we keep Gomez? Id be fine with this rotation goin in2 ST:
Haren
Pedro
Dtrain
Maine
OP
go get it done Omar!!
Dontrelle is done. He’s the new Zito, best days are past him.
Didn’t Willis derail the same year as Zito? How is he the new Zito?
Also, Willis is 26 and had a off year that can be fixed, while Zito was never as good as hyped — his WHIP actually went down this year from last.
I shouldn’t say never, I meant Zito fell off the map years ago and was overpriced this year — I think it’s a bit too early to say Willis is done.
The depth in pitching and lack of depth in position prospects is news to me. The former is good news, at least and in terms of position prospects, I think we’re OK without serious SS or 3B prospects for a while. I guess you’d like to have outfielders to fill in for the soon to be departing Milledge (and maybe Gomez), but with F-Mart down there, we at least have star potential in the AA range. Would be very, very nice to have a legitimate catching prospect. I guess we have to wait and see w/ Pena.
I wouldnt mind looking into Dtrain, but the Marlins are still looking at him as a #1 type pitcher and i dont want to see us use our best prospects on a pitcher with over a 5.50 era last year. I just dont see us finding a number 1, so why not just look at a proven innings eater who will just cost us money, not prospects (silva) and try to take a chance on a cheaper project ie Harden, Colon, Jennings type who could pay off?
I can’t help but think that Haren won’t cost much more than Harden but is waaay better. So why not just go for it- the A’s want Milledge so we’re gonna have to give him up for either.
No team will pay the “Number 1″ price for Willis off that year. Further, it is not just last years performance but a trend over the past 3 years of less wins, higher WHIP, and worse ERA. I would not trade John Maine for Dontrelle straight up.
Willis has value but not anywhere near his past. Plus, all his cheap years have been used up already. He gets a $10M payday this year in his last arbitration eligible year.
To me…I’d trade them only Mulvey straight up for him. Otherwise, you can keep that headcase
1) Willis is not being traded to the Mets!
2)Bedard and Garza are not being traded at all!
3)IF Beanes trades Haren,IT WILL be costly.
4)IF Blanton is avail, just sign Silva –same guy/wont cost
players.
5)Stop wainting/wanting Mulvey!, Having seen him,hes
not even Pelphrey or Humber. A kid named Parnell
actually looks like a better prospect.
6)Word out of Philly today is that Colon is talking seriously w/ the illes on a multi-yr deal.
Just a matter of time before Omar the Great jumps in with
both feet. Lord knows he’d wait for someone else to come in and compete to push up the price on an over-
the-hill, out of shape Dominican home-boy so we
can sign him for more years.
Mulvey and Gotay….I heard if they move Cabrera Uggla is moving to 3rd….Mulvey and Gotay for Dtrain ..then Gomez and Joe Smith for Garza. Keeping Millz and Heilmann
“Keeping Millz and Heilmann”
I like the sound of that!
I think losing Heilman would be a big deal. I mean, who would replace him?
http://www.mlbfleecefactor.com
El Duque.
Gomez and Smith for Garza is just plain stupid. The Twins wouldn’t even spit at that offer. We should have offered Mota for Santana when we still had him instead of wasting him on Estrada. Maybe we can get Pujols for Anderson Hernandez. Let’s trade Vargas for Chase Utley. I know, how about Ben Johnson straight up for Matt Holiday?
hey, ben johnson was an all american, throw in jeff francis and ill think about it.
That list seems accurate, I would have had Carp a little higher, but still a good list.
On a completely unrelated note, I think that the Mets should get Robinson Tejeda from the Rangers and put him in the bullpen.
He is only 25 years old and is coming off a sub-par year, but before that two solid years of service for the Phillies, in a hitters park no-less. I think he would come relatively cheap.
He wouldn’t be a bad candidate for the rotation either.
Some good stuff on fleecefactor (and a link to the Heyman article on SI)
Didn’t like this on though:
Milledge/Estrada for Cordero/Schneider? Thoughts? Too much of a fleece for the Mets?
ALso mentioned Omar being hot for Livan. If he picks up that stiff, with his BP fastball (makes Glavine look like a hard thrower), than he should be canned.
SHould have grabbed COlon early. 1 year, pad the contract with relatively easily attainable incentives, and cross your fingers.
Hire him a personal trainer too.
If we’re losing one or more of the OF prospects, a starting pitcher has to come back.
Not beating a dead horse or anything, but if you traded for CHad Cordero, then Heilmann could easily be moved into the 5th hole, and be a lot better, and cheaper, than Livan!
Man, if they picked up Chad, and somehow Sanchez came back strong, that would be a seriously strong back end of the pen.
Get some decent 7 inning starts, and it would be lock down time!
Yeah but Schnieder…I don’t think I could look at that dumb hockey mask all summer…
I love the idea of Heilman as a starter . . . but I wouldn’t want to count on him, and I’m not at all confident he’d be as good as Livan. He could be better, but it might take some time, and it’s not a sure thing.
I wouldn’t do Milledge by himself for Cordero and Schneider. Seriously, why on earth would we do this?
We need to come off this infatuation with overpaying to rebuild the bullpen. Kevin Towers and Billy Beane have shown that you can build a very effective bullpen by making shrewd moves. Essentially turning someone else’s trash into our treasure.
Just wait until free agency shakes itself out and then scoop up some leftover starters and convert them to relievers. This has worked time and time again. We saw it with Darren Oliver. Cal Eldred did it with St. Louis. Eric Gagne was a failed starter.
It’s a complete waste of resources to trade our best chip for a setup man and a weak hitting catcher.
So was Sele…
But I actually totally agree with you. A releif pitcher isn’t worth Milledge and I’m pretty sure Estrada and Schneider are the same player.
Sele actually should have gotten more of a chance to pitch in a real relief role rather than once every 30 games. He was actually better than Mota this season. I know, not saying much, but every little bit could have helped.
one thing i think we’re overlooking is that considering haren is “available” and young and cheap (salary wise) and NOT a free agent after 08 there could likely be more teams seeking a trade for him than for santana. teams like say the cardinals or diamondbacks that normally wouldnt shell out the 20+ per year extension to a santana would probably love to get a guy like haren for the bargain basement contract he has before he reaches free agency. So simply saying “lets just get haren for less than santana” is alot easier said than done.
Anyone notice that neither Vargas nor Bostick are anywhere near this list?
Disappointing that we traded for nothing essentially
Vargas isn’t eligible. He has more service time than Pelfrey.
I’m sure the O’s are saying the same thing about Maine…
Was Bannister ever on the list? Serious question — not snarky
(I agree about Vargas and Bostick, though)
Bannister was a very good prospect. He will be a good major league pitcher. He knows how to pitch; ie, an understanding of location and changing speeds. He has a very good curveball that for some reason he never much used when he was pitching for the Mets (at the major league level).
I regret his loss.
Amen !, A Bannister instead of a Burgos would have
meant a playoff berth. Oh, and a solid Pitcher for next
year Not a hope and a prayer for the future.
Thanks again Omar !
Bannister was never used because he blew out his hamstring.
Bannister is – at best – a crafty pitcher getting by on a pedigree and smarts. While in hidsight the Burgos Deal looks bad right now. HE has a TON of talent and is still very young.
When the deal went down we were dealing from strength to shore up a weakness with a power arm that has a ton of potential. Bannister is infinitely replaceable. He is nothing special.
You write as if ’smarts’ is not a commodity in a pitcher. I wonder if Greg Maddux would agree. Last year proves that Bannister – unfinished as he is – is not so easily replaced as you say.
last year Bannister just got the chance to perform under no pressure for his first full year in the majors.. and incidentally, only got 27 starts in for 165 innings… his Batting average on balls in play was 258 which is incredibly lucky
When he strings 20 years of smarts together we can compare him to Greg Maddox.
Johan is currently 28. Haren turns 28 during next season.
Haren, born in Monterey CA was born 9/17/80
Johan, born in Tovar Venezuala was born 3/13/79
So who’s birth certificate would you be more likely to believe?
Incidentally, Santana was signed in 1995 when he was supposedly 16 years old.
Haren was drafted in 2001 out of College.