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At FOXSports.com, Ken Rosenthal writes that the Mets ‘remain aggressive’ on free-agent RHP Livan Hernandez.
If you recall, earlier in the off-season, instead of trading for Johan Santana or Dan Haren, the majority of more than 3,200 voters at MetsBlog said they would instead sign free-agent RHP Carlos Silva to a four-year deal, while also trading for A’s RHP Joe Blanton.
…which is funny, because, as i wrote the other day, thanks to blogs like mine, newspapers and vague quotes by the team, my big concern is that fans will be painfully disappointed if the Mets only end up acquiring, say, blanton and livan or silva…which, though probably enough to help for next season, is not enough from a public relations perspective given the hype around santana and haren…in short, it’s like our collective expectations have been raised so high, that anything short of acquiring the best pitcher in baseball will be viewed as a colossal disappointment, which is crazy, yet totally understandable…
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Do we really want silva for 4-5 years at $10-11 per? No thank you. I think Livan would do 2 with an option for $8 per and give us sufficent innings out of the #5 spot.
I would do that.
Someone else on another thread mentioned that be doing something like this, it takes the “pressure” off of the trade situation.
If we sign Livan, I can see us then trading, without as much of a sting on the back of the rotation, Pelfrey, Gomez/Milledge, Heilman and a AA prospect for Haren. Beane would get 3 major league ready players (I think he wants 4, could probably bargain that down to 3 and a lower level guy.) Note– I would not do the same for Blanton.
Rotation then sets up–
Haren
Pedro
Maine
Ollie
Livan
(with El Duque and Humber as your backups in case of injury. By the way, I think that of all of the prospects, Humber is most undervalued now. I think he has great potential and we should keep him and pump up his value. He has great stuff and could actually help us this year….)
Then sign Dotel and maybe trade for another relief guy as a backup to Duaner and Padilla, either of whom will fill Heilman’s spot.
El Duque can’t pitch out of the bullpen. It’s just like Wagner piped off the other day. He can’t be relied upon to give you appearances on consecutive days.
Plus, isn’t Omar already on record as saying that El Duque will bein the starting rotation?
there is also Mulvey, Vargas and Adam Bostick who finished in the Arizona Fall League 2-0 with a sub 3.00 era with 23 Ks in 23 innings pitched. I’ve not read a scouting report and I’m not sure how he projects, but he’s a young lefty and his stats from teh AFL aren’t too shabby.
The anxiety that I’ve been feeling about the Mets not being able to make a big move to bolster their rotation has been entirely replaced by anxiety that they’ll throw too many young players at…Joe Blanton.
Our prospects are badly underrated by other teams. This is a terrible time for it to be true, but it’s true nonetheless, and the solution is not to accept the undervaluation and deal them all but exactly the opposite: hold onto them, and watch as some of them (I hope) far exceed expectations.
What to do about 08? Pick up two big-upside reclamation projects–such as Colon or Jennings or Clement–and hope for the best.
With some luck, we’ll get a big year out of Pedro (25 starts), continued progress by Maine and Perez, a dozen strong starts from Duque. The result COULD be impressive. Or it could be a perfect storm. But with our prospects still in the house, at least we have options at the deadline.
Not what I’d hoped to be writing on the eve of the Meetings.
I just was writing the same sentiment below…and I agree totally…if young pitching is at such a premium, let’s accept that we don’t HAVE to win the WS every year (ahem Spankee fans) and we can afford to develop the young pitching we have in house…see what pelfrey and humber develop into…give them the chance
Then why bother playing? Or watching them play?
The ultimate goal of every team is to win the WS.
And don’t say “ahem spankee fans” like it is a bad thing. Expecting your large market team to win every year is not out of line. When you have the best players, regardless of how you got them, you should be expected to win every year. Yankee fans without those expectations are either terrible fans or are just not paying attention.
No question, but do you try to win every year with a 1B team who has a slight chance of winning a championship, or do you retrench and align your players (internal and free agents) so that you can have a 1A team playing for 3-4 consecutive years with a solid shot at winning it all.
i agree. sign Livian as our #5 starter and put Pelfrey in the pen.
don’t trade him. keep Humber and Mulvey at AAA and let them gain experience.
Pelfrey can be a spot starter when Pedro/Livian or El Duque need to skip a turn or 2 or 3.
Give the RF job to milledge and see how he does. Save Gomez ( put him in AAA and let him gain experience) and FMat for the futre ( post Alou).
Draft ptiching with our first 3 picks in the draft.
Consider signing Dotel for the bullpen.
I have no interest in trading the majority of our propects. I certainly have no interest in trading FMart.
You’re a smart man. Why are we even thinking about selling these prospects low? If their value is diminished to such a point that they won’t net a frontline starter, then wait it out. They’ll probably do more good filling roles themselves than bringing pieces back in trade. My understanding is that Pelfrey and Humber are having trouble mixing in their third pitches effectively, and this is why their success as starters has been limited. It’s the same problem Heilman had and he turned out to be a pretty effective reliever. Try it with Pelfrey and Heilman. Give the 5th spot to Livan. He may not provide dominance but he will provide innings. Our offense should be able to keep him afloat. A rotation of Pedro, Perez, Maine, Duque, and Livan isn’t really going to scare anyone, but throwing 3 decent prospects away for a guy like Blanton isn’t going to make the big difference we’re all looking for. And for all the dumb fans who are dazzled by Eckstein’s World Series rings, remember, Livan has one of those as well, in addition to a 6-3 postseason record (as if that means anything).
Mr Slob, I know you are smart based on the way you referred to said player, and I totally get your drift, but for the sake of all right thinking denizens of Shea, please never again mention Eckstein’s name in any connection whatsoever with the NY Mets. Leave that to the bloviating sportswriters. He is a horrible baseball player. And that goes for everyone else too, not just Mr Slob :>
And by the way, the notion of “he’s got rings” is abosolutely meaningless is a team game. It’s an invented meme from the aforementioned bloviating sprortswriters.
Cheers.
its like deja vu all over again….and with that post i have officially given up any hope on anything drastic being done. I wouldnt mind livan but im not considering that drastic. Note to Omar: not all prospects pan out, it is your job as GM (and supposed talent scout wiz) along with the job of your head scouts to figure out who you can trade and who youd rather hold on to, thats what good GMs do. good gms trade the alex escobars of the world while their stock is up. i mean between our 3 OFers at least 1 wont pan out. please omar change this team for the better or 08 is going to be a rough one.
Omar needed to make this “rhetorical shift”, as the buzz was getting so negative on the Mets’ prospects that there was no chance he’d be able to make a deal getting back anything approaching value. Omar’s best trades have always been the ones we didn’t see coming; i.e. those he made not out of necessity. When Omar’s back is to the wall, like anyone else, he can overpay.
Good trades are the ones that meet specific needs for both teams, not ones where one team gets ripped off–that makes the team less willing to ever do another deal with you unless they can re-balance the scales, so to speak. Perhaps the downgrading of the Mets’ prospects is the result of less-than-expectations performances last season, but also I think due in part to the fact they’ve been floated in so many trade proposals, and maybe even some “behind-the-scenes whispering” by rival GMs hoping to stampede Omar into a bad trade for one of their starters.
Whatever the case, Omar has lost a lot of his leverage at the moment, but the good news is he appears to have realized this, and is taking steps to remediate the situation. While I’d love me some Haren this winter, I do not want more than 2-3 prospects leaving town in exchange. Bad trades last year by Omar have left our cupboard a little more barren than our competitors’, so the last thing the team can afford is for Omar to clean things out completely because he feels backed into a corner and without other options.
Livan ugh…he’s such an OLD 32 (if that’s his real age)…yes, i’d rather 4 years of silva…he’s shaky, but as our 4th or 5th starter, i’ll definitely take him. He’s just entering his “prime” and could be a steal.
And if we can get blanton WITHOUT giving up L-Millz, that’s a great deal, and we have 5 SOLID starters, with Duque in the ‘pen, with a returning dirty sanchez, and some young arms in our minors to help out, and maybe even Juan Padilla…a full season of Milledge in RF, a full season of Castillo at 2B AND betting 2nd, a full season of Pedro, and hopefully HALF a season of Alou and we’re LIGHT YEARS ahead of the 07 Mets
I didn’t realize he was 32. I thought he was 36/37 and El Duque was 42.
Better, yes. Good enough to WIN, I dunno. Compare that with the Phils SP’s and are you really that confident?…Hamels, Myers, Moyer……
I’m trying to stay positive here. I am…..but I dont look at the Mets as an isolated object. I try to look at them in the context of the league, and certainly the NL East. If the Sox or Yanks get Santana….along with a strong Phils team and an improving Braves team and I worried that we may just not be able to do enough to put us over the top and give us the one acceptable result to the season, a championship.
I’ll put Maine, Pedro and Perez up against those three in any series.
I think it is really time to acknowledge that maybe we should sign livan for 2 yrs, and develop players like pelfrey because the reality is, why should we overpay for a blanton (who is good but nothing great) just to say we did something? if the move doesn’t make sense, then don’t do it…we want an ace, why should we temper our expectations in order to trot out a different face? Yes, I understand that we need to get some new blood in here, some players that will invigorate our team, not continue to refer to last season’s collapse as “ours” but still, starting the season w/ pedro, ollie, maine, livan and pelfrey isn’t THAT bad…we should be considering to use our chips on improving and revamping our bullpen a little more…maybe try to get cordero and rauch from the nats? I would be interested in trading for dontrelle but I just don’t see the marlins wanting to trade him within the division
Beane regards Blanton to have the same value as Haren? Come on. I kinda see Kevin Appier in Blanton.
I know he was older when got here, but Appier was a disaster.
What the hell is going on this offseason?
I thought one of the problems last year was that our aging rotation let us down? Yet we are looking at mediocre pitchers with mucho mileage on their arms? Carlos Silva sucks. He’s a Venezuelan Steve Trachsel.
I wish the aliens would stop fooling around and switch back the real Omar Minaya, because the one we’ve got running things this offseason is scaring me.
Carlos Silva sucks. He’s a Venezuelan Steve Trachsel.
hahahahahahahaha
Yea, I want no part of Silva.
i really think we need to sign another OFer even if we dont trade millz or gomez, alou is going to get hurt for a long period of time again and we cant have endy playing everyday or gomez playing before hes ready again. im fine with livan as the 4th or 5th starter hes way ahead of chan ho/lawrence/vargas. but i think we need an OFer that can play for the injured alou and to rest him when hes healthy. geoff jenkins or brad wilkerson, not exactly world beaters but certainly good enough to play the rest day for alou and fill in when hes hurt. plus niether will cost anything more than money and niether would cost a draft pick. since the big splash is probably not happening its time we focus on the little moves.
Imagine if Omar listened to the fans, made a deal for PR sake, and opened the vault for Zito last year…Put these deals in perspective.
We should not trade to make a trade. Go with what we have or sign Silva for 4 or Livan for 1+option and let’s get to Spring Training already. I hate the off-season.
Did the fans want Zito?
I for one was vehemently against it, unless we get him cheap. And we weren’t getting him cheap.
Look out, Dontrelle = new Zito. Best years are behind him.
Dontrelle needs a change of scenery and to lose some serious weight. Darling showed some images of his wind-up during his Cy Young run and then this season. Pretty significant change that he attributed to lack of flexibility due to weight gain.
If his value is low now and the Marlins are willing to move him, I go get him. I just don’t think the marlins want to sell him low. He’s probably the only stadium draw they have.
You are right…Our rotation really was fine for the year, except for the blackhoe we had as the 5th starter…Only got 3 wins in that slot all year, all coming in September!! A cabable 5th guy (dare I say trachsel) woul dhave made the difference. If we can’t get the Ace caliber guy, so be it…at least it wasn’t due to lack of effort. In that case, I’d like to have a solid rotation 1-5…Right now we have Pedro, Ollie, and Maine…
It’ll be interesting to see a healthy Pedro, and if he is able to display the form we saw in ‘05, prior to his injury in ‘06, or at the end of last season, that will be great.
Then we have Maine and Perez, two 15 game winners, continuing to improve…last season was Johnny boy’s first full season in the bigs, and he was great until he got fatigued. Hopefully he will have gained some stamina, and can keep up the performance over 180-200IP…Ollie is inconsistent, yes, but if he can repeat (if not improve upon) last season, he is a 2/3 starter. If Omar can swing a guy like Blanton, that would be fantastic in the 3-4 slot…otherwise looking at guys like a Livan or Colon or Garcia etc. wouldn’t be bad for the back of the rotation.
Omar shouldn’t force a deal, and he doesnt need to…If the right one comes up, great, go for it. Otherwise, just put together a solid 1-5 staff, and supplement the bullpen. There is no need for a radical change..It was a great team for most of the year, until a massive teamwide slump. If they guys we have already play to their capabilities (i.e. Delgado) than we are easily among the top 2-3 teams in the league
Yupper. No giving away the farm for one pitcher at this point. Get some do-able arms, we’ll score runs, and our defense is solid. If the market is so screwed up that Cordero gets more than Mariano then stay away until it cools down. It will. Might be a mid-season trade that gets us the big arm we need. Patience, patience.
If the price for for Aces is out of cobtro, I’d rather forgo a starter and use a Chip to get a great bullpen guy. If Joe nathan is available, I’d consider an outfield prospect and perhaps Heilman and bring in Nathan to be the set-up guy for Wagner. A Juan Padilla/Duaner Sanchez/Joe Nathan trio in the pen is deep and gives Willie alot of flexbillity.
GIVE ME DONTRELLE!
you CANNOT be serious dude!
Not only does elster up there have it right in that D-Train is no where near what he was, do you know how much Florida would want for him? ESPECIALLY if our prospects are “undervalued” right now.
He’s Done-trelle.
BTW, what is it with Marlins players having weight problems? I know that Jeff Loria can’t be bothered to invest in his team, but not having a training staff that gets the guys in ballplaying shape is just embarrassing.
I also think that we sign Hernandez for 2 years and go for it with a committee approach.
Pedro, Perez, Maine, Hernandez and whomever steps up from El Duque, Pelfrey, Sosa, Humber and even Mulvey. Hopefully our prospects play well enough that if we need a deadline deal we can get something at a “reasonable” rate.
The Sun said the O’s rejected an offer of Gomez, Heilman and another player believed to be Humber for Bedard. it will take the addition of FMart and Pelfrey to get their attention which is a ton.
Maybe, but that offer was made before the contract talks with Bedard stalled. Next week, they may feel differently.
why is it so hard to see that Livan has nothing left? His stuff stinks now.
I would actually bet that he won’t get much more than 170 innings, assuming he stays healthy, but maybe less since he will be cruising along with an ERA of 5+ and getting yanked early.
El Duque couldn’t even crack the rotation in Arizona, and he flourished here. I think Peterson should be given a shot to turn Livan around.
The poll being referred to was taken before Santana made signing with the team he is traded to a condition of the pre-season trade. All those who suggested saving the trade chips did so with the idea that we’d simply blow Santana away with a money offer next year and save the prospects.
At this point, it’s an entirely different ballgame. If Santana is traded, he’s gone for good.
If the mets can go out and trad 3 of the following group (milledge, gomez, humber, pelfry, mulvery) and get haren back then it needs to be done. The guy is a clear No. 1 guy and will be for a long time. The only minor league guy that I think is untouchable is FMart and that is strictly because of his age and the relative success the guy has had compared to great players in MLB at that age. If Omar can’t be Haren go get silva and livan and a reliever, it doesn’t matter who as long as they add an arm or two because relivers are the most unpredictable spot in baseball, and just let the young kids mature and hope their value increases due to actual performance and not just scouting reports.
Have any of you seen Livan’s stats? He had a 4.93 era and a 90/79 k/bb ratio in over 200 innings. He’s basically Steve Trachsel now. I don’t want an ‘innings eater’ if he’s pitching poorly during the innings he’s ‘eating’.
I think it would be more crazy for a team in a NY market that had a “collapse” the way the Mets did not to try to get the best pitcher in baseball, which could have been had by getting the best player in baseball (A-ROD) and trading Reyes to get Santana. I’m sorry I’m still harping on this, but I believe it was the key and will alter Met and baseball history forever. Either the Wilpons just want to be competitive and make a ton and wouldn’t give the green light financially or Omar just messed up – or both. I know the thought of Reyes being traded is foolhardy now, but if it was Reyes and a boatload of cash for A-ROD and Santana, that’s different. Now, the Mets are back to their mediocre ways. So are we crazy to expect more? Yes, Omar brought us out of the duldrums and to near greatness. We are now down from near-greatness to mediocrity, which is definitely no place for us to be. Signing Livan and not finding a way to get better than that would be somewhere between disappointment and disgrace. I already gave my proposal weeks ago – that ship has sailed. Noow it’s for Omar who gets paid to do this to make it happen.
Omar was never in a postition to negotiate numbers to sign him. A-Rod came crawling back to the Yankees the day before GMs could negotaite with other team’s free agents. No one in the Mets front office ‘messed up’ nor were the Wilpons cheap. The Mets never had the opportunity to negotiate with A-Rod to being with.
Does anyone else have the idea that the Mets will make the move nobody is talking about?….Omar never makes the move people expect….
Expect the unexpected with him…Everything that’s in the papers generally turns out wrong or misinformed.
Exactly! Did anyone -either in here or paid sports commentators – see the Mota-for-Estrada deal coming? It’s like we’re all sitting around talking about gorgonzola when it’s clearly brie time baby!
Omar may yet pull some rabbit out of his hat.
I’m really surprised the Yankees can afford Santana. They just added $7 million a year with A-Rod and $2-3 each for Mariano and Posada (all above their contracts last year). Now they’ll have to pay Santana’s salary this year ($16?) and resign him for $25 per? They’ll have to pay an addition $30 million in penalties alone for these guys next season in addition to their salaries. ,
…and then they have to be thinking about Teixiera next year (although losing fat Giambi and his bloated contract may help them out there).
Has everyone forgotten the fact that what blew it for us last year was our BULLPEN!
The starter frenzy is all hype and we are going to shoot ourselves in the foot. Hell, Glavine would have won 18 games for us last year if our bullpen didn’t crash and burn.
We need to dix our bullpen and not surrender the farm, metaphorically and literally, for and extra 4-5 wins a year, which is what even Santana would only give us. We can make up 10-15 with a bullpen that can hold it together.
It’s true staters can make the difference in short series in the playoffs, but we didn’t even make it to playoff this year because of the damn bullpen.
I think Minaya and co. are too busy listen to the press, and us, and are trying to make a Yankee-like splash, and need I remind everyone, the yanks haven’t won it since 2000.
Lets not distract ourselves (Except from work with baseball blogs).
Paz
I agree partially. It was our bullpen that was a major problem, but if you have starters than can pitch deeper into a game (Livian and Haren can both do this) there is less reliance on the back end of a bullpen.
I was initially against signing Livian but I hate to say it, he is on par or better than any #5 pitcher out there. And yes, he eats innings which could give the bullpen a much needed rest. If Haren is aquired then we could have a rotation of Pedro, Haren, Maine, Perez, Livian. That’s not bad. That would keep us in the race. Be mindful that the bullpen was a major culprit in what did us in. If they are not overused (hopefully Maine and Perez will be another year more mature and can pitch at least 7 a game) then they’ll be more effective.
Remember, the #5 starter is just a guy who trots out there and needs to keep a team in a game. Most teams are thankful if they can get 5 innings out of this guy. Livian can give us more and may be revitalized if he’s with the Mets. It’s a contender and he would get to pitch with his brother.
El Duque is not going in the pen. His arm can’t take it.
You’re looking at:
Pedro
Maine
OP
Hernadez
Hernandez
As a Met fan, I’m deeply disappointed by not making the playoffs last year. I understand that this organization made a monumental mistake by trading Kazmir similar to the mistake the Giants made trading Liriano and Nathan. However, it was delusional to think that Met team was a single player away and that Victor Zambrano was the player they needed.
I can accept trading the farm this time. This Mets team is one player away from a championship. That player is Santana.
Right now it looks like the Mets are on the outside looking in like the little kid at the toy store window. He is as close to a lock as there is, although even these deals aren’t “sure things.” Remember Viola and Saberhagen?
This will be long, painful, and ugly. My money is on the Yankees “blinking” and overpaying in prospects for Santana and signing him to a 7 year deal. They have holes and they are used to overpaying. It’s in their DNA.
I don’t believe that Boston can afford Santana. I think they are just driving up the price. It’s the Yankees and the Mets. And let’s face it, the Mets have never won one of these pissing matches.
Not with Mussina, not with Cone, not even with Posada.
Forget what the media writes about Met prospects (how much of the NY media gets whispers from the Yankee brass anyway). The question is: “do the Mets want to win or just appear to be trying.”
It’s time to put up or shut up. If they don’t want to trade Reyes, fine. Figure out a way to get Minnesota a real player (not a prospect) as part of a 3 way deal that does make sense.
.
What does adding Blanton, Livan, or Silva do? Well, it gives up 3 more AVERAGE pitchers. Why do we want these guys? Shouldn’t our goal be to try and win the World Series? The team is close – all it needs is an ace (and some bullpen help too but that’s another story). If you were playing the Mets in a playoff series – would a rotation of Pedro, Maine, Perez, Silva, and Livan scare you? Not a chance. The Mets need an ace to slot ahead of Pedro and move everyone else down a spot. If you get a Johan, Haren or Bedard, El Duque can move to the Darren Oliver role and you now how your ace followed by Pedro at 2, Maine/Perez at 3 & 4, then you can sign an innings eater at 5 who will save the bullpen in the regular season but not start in the playoffs.
Did the Rockies staff last year scare you? They got to the WS. How about the Cards the year before? They won it. There are plenty of examples of teams with just “solid” starting pitching that have made and or won the World Series.
Would it help to have the “Ace”? Of course, but you can still win without one.
Honestly, once you get to the playoffs, it’s all a crap shoot.
Question- you all seem to think a #5 starter should just eat innings and keep the team in the game. Why couldn’t Pelfrey or Humber do that again? What makes you think Livan is an upgrade? Again, have you all seen his stats? Do you want to block a promising youngster with a 32 year old (or older) declining veteran? He’s pretty bad now.
It’s a crapshoot, yeah, but often the most balanced teams do win it. For example, this year the Red Sox were the best team on paper, and they won it. They basically dominated the Rockies. There are flukes like the Cardinals, but this year the Rockies really may have been the best team in the NL postseason. So that wasn’t a fluke. With the White Sox being the only exception, the last 10 world series winners (probably beyond) have had aces to anchor their staff. Having a real ace in front of Pedro, Maine, Perez, and El Duque would be amazing for both locking up a playoff berth AND doing well in the playoffs.
Omar no longer gets a pass! He sucks……he must go out and get haren or blanton or bedard etc….I don’t want to get Livan Hernandez……If the only thing he does this off season for pitching is add Livan Hernandez, he should be fired…..this will be a disgrace to mets fans looking to improve this team of under achievers…….we suffered enough last year…I hope the wilpons wake up……
What is clarinex-d….
Can you take benadryl with clarinex….