Well Hughes completely dominated every level till he arrived. He could be an ace sooner than later. Maine’s a solid pitcher, but his ceiling is probably more like a #2. I could see a Lester comp, and Maine’s more advanced than Lester, but I think a lot of AL teams are scared of his flyball nature. He gets away with some stuff playing in the NL East that he wouldn’t on AL Team, at least not as often. And I can’t see the Orioles buying him back at triple the cost of what they sold him as.

Billy Beane likes Maine though, I think he’s the only guy who would view Maine’s value in the same way that Omar should. Even with the innings, I like Maine better than Blanton, and Maine hasn’t even reached arbitration yet. But Haren might make sense. I’d hesitate for Santana even, because your adding so much payroll to make a marginal upgrade. But even with Haren, if someone like Sabathia, Bedard, even Santana manages to make it to FA in the next couple years the Mets can pounce, and with Pedro coming off the books (or at least his price going down if he sticks around) your right back where you started with payroll and have an awesome 1-2 punch top of the rotation. You can lock up Ollie for an eternity (if healthy) and still spend a ton of money on a new 1B/LF like Texiera or Dunn. Haren, Pedro, Ollie, Duque, Pelfrey looks like the best rotation in the NL East to me. Its a much more balanced rotation than 2007. You don’t have to rely on the back of the rotation to give you a ton of innings, you can get plenty from Haren and Ollie. Anytime Pedro and Duque make it to the 7th its just gravy, most of the bullpen had the previous night off. And if Pelf’s first few starts don’t go well and you wanna spell the pen you can just stretch Haren out.

I think we need to view 2007 as the Mets version of what happened to the Red Sox in 2006, when they had the lead going into the stretch and the Yankees won like 10 straight against them and Manny wimped out. The Sox made improvements, and were the best team in baseball the following season. Their prospects came up, and now they’re in a position to get even better.

I disagree. I think one of the remaining pitchers — Mulvey, Pelfrey or Humber can replicate Maine’s numbers eventually. And you’d still have Perez left. He’s schizophrenic, but he’s still an overall good pitcher who has excelled in the postseason.

I would offer up Maine in a heartbeat if it got us Santana.

then you dont value Maine highly..

But he was our best pitcher last year, he’s 26 and not even arb eligible and he has proven stones in the playoffs.

that is very very valuable.. he’s near as valuable to the Mets as Verlander is to Detroit.

To the contrary. I value Maine more than Perez. But neither is perfect. Maine loses focus too, is inconsistent, and has stamina issues. It’s anyone’s guess whether he will get to the next level. I would say 50-50.

Verlander has better stuff than Maine and has been a better major league performer who has reached 200 innings. Maine has never done that. Verlander is two years younger. He is valued more highly than Maine.

Saving money on a pitcher like Maine is less important than getting that bonafide ace.

if you read my post I said Maine is near as valuable TO THE METS as Verlander is to the Tigers.

I made no comparison of Maine to Verlander.

but Verlander threw 201.7 innings last year to Maine’s 191 - so its hardly a blow out comparison . I agree in the open market Verlander is surely more valuable than Maine.

But Maine is the Mets Verlander.

Young
Controllable
Playoff Stones
Regular Season stopper

If Maine continues to progress odds are good he’ll be an all star in 2008. he’s surely among the top young pitchers int he NL and could in fact be an Ace.

to give up Maine AND Gomez AND Heilman AND 20+ mil a year for 6 or more years is highway robbery

If Maine is not as good as Verlander, I don’t know how he can be as valuable to the Mets as Verlander is to the Tigers, especially since the Mets have another young accomplished starter and the Tigers don’t and the Mets are a big market team with fewer budgetary concerns. The fact that Perez will make probably $8 or $9 million more than Verlander over the next few years is peanuts for a big market team like the Mets.

Maine has the potential to get to the next level. But that is no sure thing. He could also regress or stagnate. It may be that he will never have the stamina to reach 200 innings consistently year after year. Even at his best, I don’t think he will ever be a bonafide ace. I predict at best he’ll be a solid #2 year after year which is still good. But not an ace like Santana. (That doesn’t mean Maine will never have ace-like years; just that they will be rare and the exception.)

I don’t think Maine + Gomez + Heilman is highway robbery at all. Not for Santana. You still have Perez, F-Mart, plus Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey left in the system.

Perez will make oddles more dough than Verlander and Maine over the next three years.. Verlander is locked up thru 2009 at 1 mil per year.. he is still a 0-3 pitcher like Maine is..

Perez is 2nd time arb eligible this year and is set to be a FA in 2009 and he has Boras as an Agent. (mike Fisclin who is part of Boras’s Agency)

Twins have Bonderman who has similar tenure as Perez and can be considered the same level of pitcher in terms of Age and accomplishment.

Temas dont value an Oliver Perez as high as a John Maine because of his tenure and free agency date (not to mention his inconsistency)

So you too would trade a solid number two pitcher who is controllable for 5 more years, your best set up man (or potentially another teams lock down stopper) and your most ready and arguably your best positional prospect for the priviledge of paying ONE PITCHER 22 plus million a year for 6 years (five of which he will be over 30)?

Id rather take my chances with Maine

Agreed, but not if it costs us F-mart & Gomez as well. Plus Maine is RHP, and we need at least two lefties in our Rotation which is why you can’t give up Ollie. I like Maine too, but if you can get Johan I can’t see how you don’t make that move. Then you fill the gaps with a Livan/Silva/Colon/Pelfry

If Minaya is going to offer Maine, he better do it fast for Johan. I don’t deal Maine for anyone except him. I don’t trade him for Bedard/Haren.

Personally, I prefer to keep Maine as he’s not as wild and inconsistent as Perez. But give them the choice. And you have to offer up at least Gomez or F-Mart too. Again give them the choice. It would be 3 players:

*Maine (or Perez)
*Gomez (or F-Mart)
*Heilman (or Mulvey, Pelfrey or Humber)

That sounds very fair to me. I wonder if Omar has even offered them Maine and Perez yet.

id honestly rather do Reyes straight up for Santana than include maine in another package of Major jeague talent and top prospects.

I wouldnt trade Reyes with any package under any circumstances.

Maine should be as near untouchable as Wright at this point

I wouldn’t trade Reyes straight up for any pitcher and few position players.

what position player besides Jimmy Rollins?

just kidding

much as I love reyes.. you can win a world series with an average shortstop..

id trade him for five current starting pitchers and maybe five other position players..

no one should be untouchable

Reyes should be an untouchable, even given his 2nd half slide.

Wow, I’d love to see those 5 pitchers.

How are you getting on me for wanting to trade Maine for Santana, when you want to deal Reyes?

You can win a rotation with a mediocre rotation: see ‘06 Cardinals. You can also win a WS with a solid overall rotation: see Late 90’s Yanks & ‘05 White Sox.

Baseball 101, you do not trade everyday players for pitchers.

for a lot of reasons off the field and to the fans you are probably right.

what if he his 270 this year with 10 homers and 55 SB while slugging 750?

he suddenly doesnt look like a top 10 ML shortstop/.

Right. I can play this game too. What if Maine goes out and goes 10-9 with a 4.50 ERA?

This has nothing to do with off the field or Reyes being a Met or whatever other nonsense the front office considers.

This is a pure baseball analysis. You do not trade 24 year old All Star shortstops who have done nothing but improve in each season of his big league career. The second half of last season will be viewed as a hiccup on this kid’s Hall of Fame plaque.

Not to mention that hitters are much more predictable than pitchers and contribute daily.

you know reyes making the AS team had everything to do with playing in NY and very little to do with his on field play.

And he regressed last year. If not for his April/May everyone would be saying what happened to Jose Reyes..his attitude in the second half puts him on notice with me.

I hope you are right about his Hall of Fame plaque but I hope this isnt another case of NY Fans and Media overvaluing their players..

What are you talking about? He most certainly did make the team for his on field play. It had nothing to do with him being in NY.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=2872977

I am just completely at a loss how you can say we’re overvaluing him. He’s 24 years old! Look at his stats! He improves every year! Ok, he had a bad second half… so now we want to deal him?

Riddle me this… if he duplicated his first half, are you trading Reyes?

article was written in May of 2007 after he hit like 350 for Arpril..

Reyes is a top 5 NL Shortstop when he is on his game and performing at his best.. when he is performing like he did in the 2nd half he is not a top ten.

Im not hot to deal him.. Im just saying.. if he hit 330 all year stole 100 bases and won the MVP then of course he’s more valuable.. but he didnt. he hit 280 and showed some bad habits in the second half. not just September but the WHOLE second half.

Look, I like Reyes.. dont get me wrong. But if the Twins came to me ans said Johan for Reyes straight up id have to consider.

I think Maine, Humber, Gomez is a much higher price than Reyes alone. Shortstops and leadoff hitters you can find.. lock down starters (esp. those that are young and controllable) are not.