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Jonathan Mayo, prospect guru over at MiLB.com, has posted his organization-by-organization report on the Mets farm system.
Overall, Mayo isn’t bullish on the team’s system, noting the dearth of high minor-league talent that has so far left them frustrated in their efforts to acquire a top-line starting pitcher.
Mayo places the team’s prospects in a number of categories based on their 2007 performances, including “climbed the ladder”, “kept their footing”, and “dropped a rung”.
Interestingly, he lists OF Fernando Martinez, the team’s top prospect, in “dropped a rung” category, despite his decent performance as an 18-year old at Double-A Binghamton.
Mayo names RHP Kevin Mulvey, the Mets’ top pick in 2006 who spent nearly the entire year at Binghamton, their organizational pitcher of the year; the team bestowed the same honor upon the Parlin, NJ native in October.
He awarded the organizational position player of the year award to 1B Brett Harper, who at 26 was finally healthy and had a bounce back season with Binghamton.
…mayo paints a bit of a grim picture, and is especially hard on youngsters martinez and Deolis Guerra, who put up a 4.01 ERA as an 18-year old in the FSL… we’ve heard all off-season how weak the Mets system is, though that talk has seemed to have subsided a bit recently…
…as matt cerrone posted yesterday, the mets realize they need to change their draft approach, using their considerable financial muscle to buck mlb’s slot guidelines and sign talent that has fallen due to bonus demands… given their two first rounders, and a first round supplemental this upcoming draft, nows the time to make the change…
…in addition, there has been a large influx of latin talent signed over the last two years… some will make their united states debuts, while some will make it to full season leagues…that could also prove a major boon to the farm system this time next year…
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Who cares what any of these guys think about the Mets prospects? The whole article’s content is a snapshot that will change as soon as these guys get back on the field in the spring. Except for the rare cases, how can anyone gauge an 18 yr old’s ability to advance through the Minor League ladder. The competition is uneven and bodies mature differently.
Having said that it seems very sad that a 26 year old is considered by anyone to be the organization’s best position prospect.
Unfortunalely all the other GM’s are going to care (or pretend to care) when we try to make a trade and they say “oh that player dropped a rung. We want more”. Minnesota’s GM is practicing this in the mirror as we speak….
Thanks Jonathan Mayo……ahole.
Thanks Jonathan Mayo……ahole
Yeah…..because it’s his job to write glowing articles about our crummy prospects to help Omar’s ability to make a trade!
I’d have given it to Gomez after his AAA performance, or even Duda after his terrific season.
I don’t know why people don’t see this guy as a great prospect. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end up succeeding in AA at the end of this year.
also, Duda was huge in the Hawaiian league…you’d think that would give him a nice boost
Someone else on this blog responded to a similar comment I made by suggesting that Duda may be a Piazza-esque first baseman.
I watched him in Brooklyn this past year. We were already on that song. “Who’s gonna drive in the first run…..Duda, Duda!”
Hell, just spin off Martinez, Heilman, Pelfrey and Humber somewhere and get a bona fide eace in return. Then sign Freddy Garcia, So Taguchi & Octavio Dotel for 2 years and wait for Opening Day.
ugh please no so taguchi id rather sign kevin mench
Mench may go for a full time starting job, unfortunately.
he might, but i just dislike so taguchi too much i dont want to have to root for that little twerp.
What’s wrong with Tsuyoshi… I mean So Taguchi? ;-)
Shinjo, part 2…ugh.
Why in hell would anyone want So Taguchi on their favorite baseball team?
To hit righty?
He did it with Duncan.
Church/Taguchi in right field is certainly good defensively. That combo with get around 20-25 HR, hit .280 and drive in a buttload of runs.
If they play to their career averages, they combine for 21 home runs. Oh wait. That’s if they BOTH play 162 games.
I really have a good feeling about Gomez; and there’s no reason to believe FMart won’t continue to progress.
As for the pitchers, well . . .
I love hearing about the farm system and the progress some are making. The dominance of the pitching at the lower levels may be normal…I am not sure. But we have some guys who pitched for Brooklyn that just killed the competition. BAA of under .220. Era’s in the 2.25 or less range, more than a k per inning stuff. One guy was the short season pitcher of the league (dylan Owen).
i have no idea how they will become but its nice to see some success somewhere.
What is necessary is that level of dominance in AA. You get it there….you can start to trade for all the big names….or you wait and keep em for yourself.
you have a good feeling because he batted a whopping .270 in the minors? Atleast thrillz could beat up on minor league pitching (.342)
Gomez just turned 22, he’s 6′4″, runs like the wind and plays defense as well as anyone. Once his plate discipline improves, he’ll be a very good major leaguer.
LMillz will be lucky to see 30 if he demands that everyone ‘bend ya kneez’ ya boyeeeee!
LMAO…
Whatever the NY Mets do they better not trade the next Scott Kazmir – RHP Dylan Owen
Jordan- They also brought over a few kids from the Netherlands this year…I believe one of whom was a 3b?
for all the gm’s around the league who don’t like the mets system or prospects, you would have done well trading for the mets mediocre prospects last year:
very good starter: bannister
excellent 8th inning reliever: bell
good middle reliever: lindstrom
good (considering he went from single a to majors) catcher: flores
not saying the system is great, but it can’t be that bad considering what these decent prospects did last year. from what i’ve read and seen:
f-mart is a real deal hitter with major league power, gomez is at worst serviceable outfielder considering he’d play center on other teams with gold=glove defense, pelfrey will likely end up in the pen as a lindstrom-type (lower-than his expected ceiling), humber a 5th starter or decent middle reliever, milledge will definately hit, but will also be a head-ache for the nats, mulvey will be better than expected as he seems like a pitcher not a power-arm…in other words he pitchers with the big head.
just my opinion, of course.
why do you rate Humber as a starter and Pelf as a reliever?
pelfrey has excellent movement on his fastball and a pretty good sinker. i can see him dominating 1 or 2 innings, but not 6 or 7 w/o a quality curve or slider. he can learn one, but i doubt it will be good at this stage. considering the importance of relief pitchers, i’d take him as a future 8th inning guy.
humber doesn’t impress me. there is so little good pitching in the majors that, if healthy, he will probably get a bunch of chances at the back-of-the-rotation or middle relief for a lesser team. he has a nice curve and good control, but the fastball doesn’t have much movement. if he can develop a change up humber has a shot to be more successful, but his current stuff looks just okay.
just my opinion, of course
Actually, Pelf has no movement on his fb, that’s one of his biggest problems. No movement + 95 tops = disaster.
you can’t be serious. pelfrey’s fastball has a lot of movement.
did you see him pitch last year? it’s controlling where it goes that’s the problem. too often over the middle of the plate instead of on corners or just off the plate
Saw him pitch every game. Maine has a fastball that moves. Pelfrey’s does nothing.
Middle of the plate? Yea, b/c it has no movement.
if you can’t see the movement on pelfrey’s pitches consider investing in hdtv :)
Pelfrey’s fastball has excellent movement. In fact, it’s all he has, and that’s why his development is stalled. If he were ever able to figure out how to control his curve and throw his change-up for strikes, he’d be a pretty dominant pitcher. At this point I think the odds are slim that he’ll figure it out as starter. If he can’t do it soon, he should be relegated to a bullpen role, where I think he’ll excel.
If he had a fastball that moved, he could make a living off of it, ala Mariano. It doesn’t move. It goes straight. And we all know anyone can hit a straight fastball. Either way, the guy needs to develop his other pitches and get some moxy.
To be honest….the review actually spiked my excitement. Sounds like the best of our talent are young but that they appear to be seriously killing their levels.
Moviel, Rustich, Vineyard, Dylan Owen. all small samples but all appear to be slaying it.
Can’t wait to watch em come along.
We need a terrific year out of some of the youger ones.. Guys like Guerra, Fmart, Pena…they need to step up and develop. i hope they do.
Omar may be doing it in the draft and intl market and it just has not yet made it on the radar screen
Anyone get the feeling from reading the article that the Mets have a tendency to rush their prospects thru the system a bit too much?
It does, but I have no way to compare, since I pay no attention to what other teams do.
So maybe that doesn’t help with these reviews, but the Mets must think it is better in the LT for their development.
Yes!!!
Would it be fair to say that our prospects would be worth more now, if they stayed in minors all year last year? Look above for the correct answer.
This snippet was interesting:
held opponents to a .183 average in 42 2/3 post-break innings
That would be Humber, doing that in a pitchers league. But of course, everyone knows he is “trash” that will never amount to anything.
I bet there are other teams where the fans would be excited to have a former college stud that was able to do that at 24 (after missing 1.5 years for TJ), and led the PCL in Ks (that right?) wand was in the top couple in WHIP. They might even be looking forward to having him compete for a spot in the rotation.
But no, the posters here all seem to want to trade him for a used rosin bag because he didn’t throw a no hitter in his first ML start, after sitting idle for 2 weeks+!
there were some promising kids in that list. I really like Duda, he might move fast. Rustich and Kunz could also fast track.
And they were all in the 2006 draft class, which goes to show that the fortunes of the farm can yo yo quickly after a few call ups, trades, signings or a good draft.
He did that in a “hitters league” not a pitchers league. I realize it was a quick typo error Stick. And he lead the league in WHIP and K’s as you pointed out.
He is ready.
I have been saying it on this blog since it was clear we were not getting Bedard. F-Santana. Get em next season as afree agent. Let Humber and Pelfrey pitch this year (though Pelf may need a bit more seasoning).
Mulvey needs AAA this year but is coming on.
The A’s get their pitchers to produce by allowing it to happen. We don’t. 13 ML starts for Pelfrey in 2 years is not a ton. 1 Ml start for Humber does not qualify as much.
Let the guys get 15 starts each to begin the season and assess where they are then. Move Duque to the pen and stash Sosa in AAA. Both could be called upon to salvage the starting rotation some if both fail.
But seriously…how terrific will it feel if they both hold their own and pitch to a .500 or so record and a 4.00 era with big upside.
I say let em pitch. Its time to let our picks develop some ML experience. Itll be better for us in the long run!
I completely understand.
But, if you want to talk AAA, than Fernando Tatis, Andy Tracy and Anderson Hernandez will be great!
At this point, I’d rather start Mel Rojas, put Satiro Komiyama in in the 7th, Jaime Cerda in the 8th, and close it with Braden Looper, than start Humber right now.
An ace would be very beneficial for this team. Pitchers that are good last for very long times. I think Bedard could be good for the next 4-5 years, and Santana could have a Clemens-like career.
They are sure-bets to help us get dominant. I understand what you want, but there will be other prospects. Remember, the whole point of prospects is to hope that
they end up like Bedard or Santana.
Martinez, Heilman, Pelfrey & Gotay over to Minny or ‘more.
Still got Humber & Mulvey, Gomez, Smith, Kunz, Sanchez, Reyes, Wright, Maine, Perez, Beltran, Church and all that jazz, not to mention Guerra, Niese and all the guys that are further away.
BTW, if Guerra is a sticking point in a deal for Santana or Bedard then include him.
I get your point “til”, but at some point is there no logic in trying to put your youthful pitching into the rotation. Take the yankers as an example. next season they will have petite, wang mussina and 2 kids in the rotation. maybe their 2 project better but they are still kids. Joba and Hughes are not yet 23.
Yet they are about to be entrusted with a $200m team with aging vets in a division where their “Braves” the sox have just won the division and 2 of the last 4 world series.
Aces are great. In a perfect world…i’d take em over what humber and pelfrey can be. but they are not available without giving up most of the close youth we have.
I simply think we are good to go with our Ace in Pedro, 2 pretty good options to follow in Maine and Perez who should both have less trouble getting in the 34 starts and 200 innings that we need them to. The back end of the rotation could be alot worse than Humber and Pelfrey. And who knows…they might suprise big time and be the next Haren and Blanton.
You blame the fans but you blame the wrong people. The fans can only respond to what they read and hear. What can the fans conclude from Willie’s reluctance to use Humber after he was called up? If Humber had been moved to the bullpen and pitched well while others were failing the Mets fans as well as the media might look at Humber in a different light.
Exactly. Humber had a strong, consistent season in a hitter’s mecca last season, at the highest minor league level. But because he isnt the type of pitcher with electric stuff, people just pass him off.
You need control guys that are consistent, too. Tom Glavine never really had great stuff, but he managed to win 300 games by being a great control pitcher who could be consistent. Humber is that type of pitcher, although probably more like a Moyer or a Trachsel than a Glavine. He’ll be a good consistent workhorse #3, and that is always valuable to have.
off topic, but the most innings bedard has ever pitched in a season is 196? how can he be an ace when he hasn’t even pitched 200 innings? forget about him.
yup, his track record shows two pretty good years.
I’ve been saying, since Bedard/Haren salaries are more manageable, O’s & A’s want same prospects for them as Twinks want for Santana. That is where people think, “Ok, same prospects, must mean same talent.”
Santana
Bedard/Haren
The perception of the Mets organization after the “collapse” seems to be consistently negative. I read that report and I dont put too much stock in the article. It seems to be basing every evaluation on the momentum and the reputation of the organization.
People in the media get paid to write these articles which are rarely based on sound evidence, but purely the trend of the times. Thats what keeps all of these writers safely paid.
In my mind, you cant put much stock in that report. The Mets farm isnt the most deep system in the league but it has some good talent. It’s far from awful as the report seems to indicate.
I felt very encouraged by the article. Sounds like good stuff comingour way. Rush? Phooey. Let the kids play!
After the big boys choked last September, I say bring them all up and see some fire in the bellies.
Now here’s an idea!
Fire Willie Randolf tonight.
Hire a MLB manager.
Our players will immediately look more successful;
because they will be!
A manager…very interesting proposal, Doctor!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ycv4-8xx3c
Reboxetine edronax….
Reboxetine….
Duda and Martinez both have really sweet swings. go to MiLB.com and look at the top prospect list, find Martinez and you can see a video.
Take it from me, the guys that are really special are Duda, Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, Carr & Niese.
You left F Martinez off of your list of the ‘really special.’ May I ask why?
I thought he asked good and somewhat pressing questions… questions that people on YES wouldn’t dare to ask Cashman
Sorry but he Has to ask Omar’s opinion on that poll. Even though Omar would gibberish his way through a vague answer it has to be asked anyway. The truth is this team as it is now constituted will finish 3rd or maybe 4th in the division. Again, sorry but true.
Implied.
3rd or 4th? come on.
Now that’s just collapse-induced brain trauma. We finished one game behind the Phillies who played out of their mind in September. Are you saying we have gone backwards by losing Glavine to the Braves? Or maybe you’re thinking the Milledge-LoDuca Nats rise up and pass the Mets. I might agree if you say we might finish 2nd, but 4th??? no way.
thats ridiculous, I realize the collapse was big, but you’re going to judge an entire season’s worth of games on 2 weeks? Now we’re suddenly going to finish in 3rd of 4th? No team in this division has done anything substantial to be THAT much better. I could see saying finishing in 2nd, POSSIBLY, 3rd if you were on the pessimistic side, but 4th? That’s crazy talk. We didn’t play very well last year and we still had the division easily in our grasp. Of course we gave it up, but thats just ridiculous. 4th? People are taking the emotion felt by the way we played that last stretch, coupled with the perceived notion that we NEED a top notch pitcher, OR ELSE!!! I mean, are Mets fans ever going to be realistic? I realize it’ll be a fight, but we still have the talent to get this thing done next year. Also, coupled with our horrible play down the stretch was the fact that the Phillies played our of their minds, don’t forget that (of course that’s all fans like you remember probably…)
enjoy
You speak of being realistic.
The real, is, that the 2006 Mets were a Championship caliber baseball team.
The real, is, that that team is gone and what remains of a veteran team is 2 years older.
The real, is, that Omar arrived with a plan; and that plan suddenly stopped lasr winter and was never seen again.
Each offseason, the GM must tinker and upgrade. Now, next winter we need to find what, 3 starting pitchers; a firstbaseman, a set of corner outfielders?
What the hell is going on!
Get real indeed!
Since it appears we are parading the same roster of chokers out again this year; with Church and Schneider as our upgrade.
other than the 1/4 if the roster that is already gone, and who knows how much more to follow.
Glavine, LoDuca, Green, Milledge, Mota, Sele already gone.