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On Tuesday, MetsBlog asked if the Mets should trade Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra to the Twins for Johan Santana, who will also require a seven-year contract, and 58 percent of the 3,700 respondents said, ‘Yes, make the trade.’
…as i have said, the way i keep hearing it, the Twins want gomez and four pitchers…
Meanwhile, at his blog for the Daily News, Adam Rubin recalled a story he wrote while in Nashville that lists Aaron Heilman as the fourth 
pitcher in question.
So, yesterday, MetsBlog swapped out Guerra for Aaron Heilman, and 64 percent of the 4,200 respondents said, ‘Yes, make the trade.’
…which means either a) we would would rather keep guerra than heilman, which i have a hard time believing is the case, or b) most fans just want santana more now than earlier in the week, and are willing to do what’s necessary to get it done…
…as i have said, i think i’d pull the trigger on the pitcher-heavy package, while keeping fernando, and adding Johan Santana to John Maine and Oliver Perez for the next few seasons…i realize this will cripple the farm system, for now, while also creating a hole in the bullpen…but, if the Mets do not think pelfrey and humber can develop in to a pitcher like santana, who is only 29 years old, then they must pull the trigger since they will always be able to sign a back-end starter on the open market…it’s the ace they can’t find…
…added to by Mike Nichols…
…i agree with cerrone, but i wouldn’t have the hesitation to pull the trigger that he or Mets management do…adding santana at that cost is a no-brainer to me…yes, gomez and martinez, plus the additional pitching prospects is a very hefty price, but, seriously, you’ve got to believe gomez and martinez have more of a chance ending up like Preston Wilson and Alex Escobar than Darryl Strawberry and David Wright…sure, we could sit here and wait for the next few seasons for pelfrey, humber and mulvey to develop into the Mets next influx of pitching stars, but they could also turn out to be the next Generation K…
…if ever there was a time to pull the trigger, it’s now – and the Mets shouldn’t look back when doing it…
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itll sting at first but once that initial pain wears off i think we’ll all be happy come spring training.
Honestly, after watchin Heilman give up that HR to Molina in the playoffs last year… I’ve wanted him to be traded. He’s actually got some value and we are getting Duaner back for the 8th inning anyway. The rest of the mid-relief is a total crap shoot. Just invite a few extras to spring training and see who pans out
BRING IN JOHAN!!!
Especially since there will be some Yanks on this Mitchell report…. bring some positive media to NY
Mike Nichols is a very smart man.
Nichols did bring up a great point… “Gomez and Martinez have more of a chance ending up like Preston Wilson and Alex Escobar than Darryl Strawberry and David Wright”. I understand why people are scared off by unloading most of the chips in our farm system, but like Nichols mentioned what are the chances that these kids turn out to be truely special players like Santana? Do we want another case like Lastings Milledge, where we don’t unload a player at the right time and he looses his trade value?
Thats just it. Nobody wanted to trade Milledge. They still think he’s going to be a great player and that there was no right time to trade him. Martinez and Guerra arent even close to the trade value they will have in a few years so why would you want to add them in as a throw in, like Ollie and Maine was?
Just hoping Mr. Met is not on the list.
His head was that big before the steroids era and after the steroids era…..unlike some people we know in baseball.
I agree. Make the trade and know you are getting the best pitcher in the game. Restock the system by drafting to our needs and not because the commish wants you to draft a certain way. Don’t look back, just do it. Trades like this are always a risk, but in this case I’d do it.
Ditto! The trade has to be made! Minaya has to sell the farm…It’s a long term investment with high reward. DO IT! Then slowly rebuild the farm system little by little.
pettitee just named? omg this is going to be the best day ever.
sell the farm!!! we want johan!!!!
hahahaha
that good boy mormon was neg influenced by rocket.
All we need is the Johan trade to happen today and today could be almost as good as winning a World Series
We have a bunch of good draft picks this year that basically and create teh same hype that the guys we have now. Our team is set for the future but built to dominate at the present with a front line pitcher. I woudl ove to not rid ourselves of Heilmen but really he is gone next year anyway. Do it get Johan and keep on OF prospect…
That hype is making us use more prospects then we should be using. Shouldnt we be drafting better players then what we have? And if thats the case, why would we be giving away probably the best high end prospects that we’ve had in decades (F-Mart, Guerra) to draft inferior prospects, thinking those type of guys are a dime a dozen? They are just to young to use them as just throw ins.
I’d be slightly hesitant about giving up Martinez just because he’s the one really high-end talent in the system. Gomez, they can take. He looks like a taller Endy Chavez to me. Plenty useful, but not worth keeping over Johan Santana.
I agree with your approach — F-Mart could be the straw that breaks the proverbial proverbial. If they want F-Mart, the Mets should be a little less inclined to include so many B/B+ guys, or any major leaguers.
But, yeah, this is a rare golden opportunity to turn quantity into quality.
We have 3 picks before Round 2… If we pay above ’slot’ we will restock the farm system this year… In addition, with the signings at the Mets Domincan Baseball academy, we are restocking the farm system…
I think we will be able to restock the farm system this year if we make this deal for Santana.
Plus there are guys not on the Twins short list that might be better prospects
What does pay have to do with who we draft? You have a list of names in an order you’d like to draft them in. When your turn is up you grab the uppermost name on your list and so on. Money only comes into play when you go to sign them and yes they should pay whatever it is to get them to put there name on the paper. But the draft is like anything else, its a crapshoot and could be like this years freeagent market. Thin on talent. There is no guarantee on getting two players with the same upside as them.
I agree with Nichols. You have the chance to trade a bunch of IFs for the one of the most sure things in a long time. Even if the Mets weren’t built to win right now and were trying to be competitive 4 years from now I would STILL do this trade as Santana is only 29. I don’t know what the hold up is if thats all it will take to get the best pitcher in baseball in his prime.
I like your style Mr. Nichols, why aren’t we hearing from you more often?
Great article over at Metsgeek: http://www.metsgeek.com/articles/2007/12/13/de-mything-the-johan-negotiations/
Kind of makes me think we have a bit more leverage than we think.
that is a great article. there is a LOT more to this trade than just trading prospects for santana.
also, keith law called this during the GM meetings but i bet bedard, if he and santana both get dealt, gets as good if not a better package than santana.
Let’s not forget, when this new Twins GM was hired, it came out that he is known around baseball circles as a VERY meticulous and well-heeled negotiator. I think very early in the off-season, this was reported, and my first thought was that this guy was going to take his sweet @$$ time in dealing Santana….
I agree. While there is always the possibility of a dumb owner type making a bad decision and overbidding – the demand for Santana just isn’t there. The huge contract required. The FULL not trade clause. I think one top prospect and a couple of mid tier prospects.
Then the twins pick the ones the package they like-go to Johan AND HE CHOOSES.
Make this trade. If there was a ever a situation that would justify offering the bulk of your system, it’s this. Santana is the best pitcher in the game and he’s only 29 years old. To think what this guy would be in the National League is something beyond an ace.
There will be those who want to make the argument that starting pitchers only help you every 5 days and it’s just not worth it. To them I would simply say that you don’t sign these guys merely for what they give you during the regular season. They are there to solidify a rotation during a short series in the playoffs. That’s when a pitcher of Santana’s ability shows it’s worth.
P.S. If Heilman is in the deal, Otsuka has just been non-tendered and could be a solid late inning addition if his elbow is healed as reports suggest.
Also, grab Prior for the pen if he’s not in the Mitchell Report :)
I’m all for giving up Gomez, Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey, and Heilman for Johan. I would like to keep Delois Guerra and F-mart in the farm system. These are the Mets two young, under twenty studs and should be, I think, kept in the organization for the “future”. Guerra has been pegged as a future number two or three guy. That’s enough reason for me to keep him. At eighteen, he still has a few more years in the minors to season his skills. However if they dump all their current pitching prospects they would have no one left. Granted the draft can bring in more new talent but they won’t be ready either. Don’t get me wrong here. I’m all for dipping in the tank to get some gold but I just don’t like to drain the whole thing dry. By giving up Heilman, instead of Guerra, They rid themselves of a man who has been very vocal about his role on this team. Time for a new team Aaron! Hope you do well buddy. Maybe you can start in Minnesota? Pull the trigger Omar! Bring back the trust man!
Excellent blog today at Mets Geek regarding the Santana trade senario.
The basic premise is that the media has missed the boat on the key points namely that SANTANA HOLDS ALL THE POWER. He has a complete no trade agreement so he will choose his destination and not the Twins.
For example, the Red Sox or Yankees can “up the ante” and offer more players BUT Santana could decide that either he doesn’t want to go to that team OR he does want to go but is willing to wait until free agency because he feels the price in prospects is too much.
The key questions are:
1. Where does Santana want to go.
2. Does he want to test the market to determine his value or negotate w/only one team.
3. What is the value to the Twins of holding on to Santana for 1 year vs THE PACKAGE FROM SANTANA’s CHOSEN TEAM.
This is NOT an open market. The Twins can’t simply take the “BEST” package of propects because Santana can VETO any trade.
Also, the Mets, Red Sox, Yankees don’t need to overpay in prospects because this is not an auction.
SO STOP the idiocy. If Santana wants to be a Met then he will be a Met. The Mets will offer him the contract he wants – they couldn’t survive the fallout if Santana went public and said: “I wanted the Mets but they didn’t want me.”
Also, don’t expect the Mets to “empty the farm” to get him because they won’t have to do this. They will have to give the Twins fair value (a one year rental fee plus the future value of 2 high draft choices).
Correct. Hopefully others will read the article and stop suggesting trades like ” everyone except Martinez.” It won’t take that much. When and if this gets done – it will not be anything like what has been suggested on this site. Not even close.
hey, someone else read the metsgeek article! i also think the ‘winning’ team for johan will get ‘raped’ during negotiations. and by ‘raped’ i mean ‘bent over a barrel and widened several inches in circumference’. and by that i mean the contract will probably look bad in hindsight by the time it is finished.
Make the d4mn trade already. We have no MVP/perennial AS/Cy Youngs in our farm system. Get it done. Give the guy 30 million. He’s worth every penny.
NICHOLS FOR GM
just get it over with i say pelfrey will become a number 3 humber will never be mroe then a ok number 4 mulvey a number 3 and gomez will b aaron rowand with less hrs nd more stolen bases
For what it is worth….I would prefer to have 2 number 3’s and a number 4 plus an everyday useful outfielder than one great pitcher.
As Great as Johan will be….he will win not more than 20 games in a season.
We have 2 guys who are #3’s in most peoples eyes who just won 15 each.
If we could actually say that Humber Pelfrey and Mulvey would all be parts of our rotation in 2009 (not next yr) and they would win collectively between them 40 games. Would that be better than getting just the 20 we would earn with Santana and the 30 from Maine and Perez plus maybe another 20 with 2 guys like Livan or Colon or Jennings or Benson?
Plus what to make of the winshares provided by Heilman and Gomez?
You do have to weigh the value of the whole package
A couple of things here. First, I’m not sure that we can assume that Guerra is more valued than Heilman, but I’ll take that up too. It could be that fans, like me when I voted, wanted to save one high up pitching prospect. And also on that note, Heilman has had some excellent moments, but his ride has been a bit bumpy too and like in politics, sometimes the guy that we haven’t seen struggle whether he’s better or not is more alluring.
Secondly, a lot of this, as I’ve written before, has to do with how the Mets and Met fans and media treat Santana. Look at Zito and look at Beltran and Piazza’s Met first seasons. They all struggled. ZIto maybe from switching teams and deliveries and Beltran and Piazza I think felt the heavy pressure from NY fans and media. And then there is Gooden, who besides the obvious other problems, had “genius” pitching coach Stottlemyre trying to teach him a changeup after Doc’s 85 season for the ages. Hands off, Mr. Jacket.
I see your point but Piazza had a great 1st year:
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA
394 67 137 33 0 23 76 1 0 47 53 .348
Mike Nichols, you summed up my feelings perfectly. Now, if only we could get Omar to see things that way….
Metsgeek was right on.
This whole 6 best prospects including all the ML ready 9or close to it) pitching is a recipe for disaster.
Plus, as noted, it should not be required. If Omar can make a reaonable deal, then great, get him. If not, move on. He has the responsibility to develop a team for beyond today.
Frankly, some of the “dump the farm” deals might even make it less likely they will go far in 2008. As last year showed, you need to have some back ups to call up when injuries or innefectiveness hits.
Finally, please STOP PENCILLING OLLIE INTO THE ROTATION FOR YEARS TO COME. He is a FA after 2008, and I would bet quite likely to jomp ship for a monster deal. Unless Omar signs him to an extension, you just can’t plan on having him beyond next year.
It has been hard to do much this offseason. Imagine next off season when you have to fill 2 (at least) SP spots, some pen spots (as always) and need a new 1B and LF. And god forbid C or 2B goes down.
And you just traded the bulk of the close talent so the farm is pretty bare on the top end.
SO in conclusion, Omar does have leverage (yo uthink the Twins want to deal with the fall out either f not getting a good package as have been bandied about?)
If Santana wants the Mets, the Twins want to move him, and Omar wants him, then a reaslistic package of players + contract can get done. maybe something creative like Gomez + Mulvey + Gotay + carp/Harper.
Probably a fair return, since you are not trading for Santana’s 2004-2007 output. You are trading for 1 year rental, + the privlege of signing him to a huge deal. That is not worth any where near as much.
I agree with you but it appears that we are in a small minority here.
which means either a) we would would rather keep guerra than heilman, which i have a hard time believing is the case,
all Matt has to do is read the comments from yesterday to know that this is clearly the case.
Fans understand that a young pitcher with Ace potential is not worth giving up
If we get to keep Guerra and Martinez AND Church…
DO IT!!
Sign Otsuka, Let the BP play out in Spring…
every year BP studs come out of nowhere…then disappear the next.
Then sign Colon on an incentive laden contract.
Cripes, if he panned out to be 75% of what he was…
we’d have three (3) Cy Yound award winners in our rotation…plus Oliie and Maine.
Dammit Omar…if this is true…GET on the phone.
(sorry for the re-post…it showed up way up top B4)
Acquiring Santana will make the collapse less painful to many Mets fans. Some will probably even forget it ever happened after we win the 08 WS
:-D
Mike Nichols for Mets GM!
I read on metsblog.com that the Mets turned down an offer of Gomez, Martinez and 3 pitchers for Santana and i’m wondering why don’t we already him then. What are the Mets waiting for? They held on to Milledge until he had no trade value and for all we know Gomez and Martinez could turn out to be another pair of Jay Payton or that minny Manny we had here. Every time i hear the 3 pithers is too much all i can think of is geration k. Santana is already a proven player that we desperatley need! What are we waiting for? JUST DO IT!!!!
My guess is that this isn’t done because 1) these rumors of this particular offer reported on this site are false or 2) Matt was correct in saying that the deal is being held up because the Mets don’t really want to give Santana a seven-year deal.
Mets should do the deal but only if some other meaningful reliever or desirable pitching prospect at A level is brought back to us.
Simply can not rip our best reliever and our 3 best and closest pitching prospects plus our closest remaining blue chip outfield prospect and have just one guy to show for it….regardless of how good he is
You got a source on that?
DO – IT…..
I’d rather have one of the outfileders as opposed to none….
Gomez is a STUD but Santana is a CY……
DO – IT….
+5
gotta agree, give us some warm bodies in addition. That’s all. Just warm bodies.
something in return would be nice, but like I said in the past, you can’t just sit around and wait on certain “prospects” when you have a chance to get a proven CY in your rotation.
Just pull the F’n Trigger, Back the truck up and unload it. Our farm is crap to everyone else but Mets fans.
I live in Houston and all the fans here are moaning over giving up their “blue chips” to get Tejada.
Take a look at the list of what they gave up (5 players) Do any of you think they are blue chips?? BUT in Houston they do. My analogy is that everywhere else our “blue chips” aren’t so hot and if the twins are willing to take em then let it go. This is a young proven ACE and in the MLB these days the fact that we can actually name on one hand the amount of true Ace pitchers means that its a special pitcher.
GO GET JOHAN
The Twins are known for outstanding scouting and are excellent at evaluating talent. If the Twins think these guys are top prospects then they most probably are.
And maybe they aren’t. Maybe they need to unload a pitcher that they don’t beleive they can sign.
But if they don’t think the prospects are any good then they might as well keep Santana for the year and see if they can compete for a post season spot and take the draft picks for losing him to FA where they might get a better prospect or two? OTOH if they can get Hughes from the Yankees then why not make that deal since Hughes was widely regarded last year as one of the very best pitching prospects in all of baseball.
sb aren’t any good
Ignore my correction. :)
Out of curiosity, what makes you say Gomez is a stud? He’s never shown any power, and only really has had one good season with the bat. What makes him more studly than, say, Endy Chavez?
If we get to keep Guerra and Martinez AND Church…
DO IT!!
Sign Otsuka, Let the BP play out in Spring…
every year BP studs come out of nowhere…then disappear the next.
Then sign Colon on an incentive laden contract.
Cripes, if he panned out to be 75% of what he was…
we’d have three (3) Cy Yound award winners in our rotation…plus Oliie and Maine.
Dammit Omar…if this is true…GET on the phone.
Gomez is not a stud. As for the pitchers, I believe that Santana will win more major league games than all three combined for at least the next two years. So make the trade. What do I care about prospects? Santana is at worst the second best pitcher in all of baseball.
Who would you say is better?