Minors: Composite Mets Top 10 Prospects

December 18, 2007 at 14:42 pm · 88 comments

by Matthew Cerrone

JP Schwartz of Topp Prospect Report has released his Top 10 Mets Prospect List, which includes seven pitchers.

Here is general, composite ranking of the team’s Top 10 Prospects, considering how they stack up according to Baseball America, John Sickels, Project Prospect and Topp Prospect Report…

To research each player’s stats, check out MiLB.com.

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Joe
December 23, 2007 at 5:11 pm

{ 87 comments }

Vinnie December 18, 2007 at 2:46 pm

Our top 2 prospects are years away… ugh… just like our chances of winning a WS

Metsfan980 December 18, 2007 at 2:55 pm

This list shows where the Mets minor league talent lies.

The Mets top talent from a few years ago is in the majors right now (Reyes, Wright, Heilman and Kazmir). Their next batch of talent is attempting to secure a major league future right now (Pelfrey, Humber, Bannister, Petit, Milledge). Their current batch of talent is young and will be here within the next few seasons (Gomez, Guerra, Tejada, Martinez, Mulvey, Evans, Pena).

Yes, the Mets top prospects are working their way up the ranks right now, but that’s only because the prior top prospects have already made their way.

Once you’ve made it, you’re no longer a prospect.

points guy December 18, 2007 at 3:00 pm

thank you for the edu-ma-cation.

Vinnie December 18, 2007 at 3:05 pm

OK…

gowrightgo December 18, 2007 at 4:28 pm

I just checked over at the Yanks system report. If you think ours is bad…2 of their top 7 did not even play last year due to injury. Both had Tommy John surgery. You think our system sucks….how about that one

bonatom December 18, 2007 at 3:10 pm

I am sure they will all do very well on the Twins

ridethesnake December 18, 2007 at 3:23 pm

Exactly why I endorse the trade. If even a few of these guys becomes impact players, they are on the Twins, in the AL. Good luck to all of them. As long as Johan is a Met for 6-7 years and we reap the benefits of his greatness, it will still be a fair trade. Success can come to both sides from a trade, that’s the point.

I think eventually Omar has to do it, and replenish the young potential pitchers with a Prior, and away we go.

thrilledge 4 prez December 18, 2007 at 5:03 pm

If bunting was never introduced to the game, carlos gomez would be flipping burgers at BK.

Les Gomez December 18, 2007 at 2:47 pm

we’ll be lucky if one of those guys becomes an all-star……

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 2:50 pm

Twins get:
OF Fernando Martinez
RHP Deolis Guerra
OF Carlos Gomez
RHP Kevin Mulvey
RHP Eddie Kunz
RHP Philip Humber
LHP Jon Niese
1B Mike Carp
1B Nick Evans
RHP Joe Smith

Mets get:
Johan Santana

Fire Isiah!

points guy December 18, 2007 at 2:51 pm

+10

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:01 pm

Hmmm, I would think the Fire Isiah would be worth +20 alone. Do I really get -10 for that trade proposal?

points guy December 18, 2007 at 3:10 pm

oh sorry, i thought the “Fire Isiah!” was your signature.

Les Gomez December 18, 2007 at 2:51 pm

sad but true……

Hit The Weights Zeile December 18, 2007 at 2:53 pm

depressing

Vinnie December 18, 2007 at 2:52 pm

How about we trade Church and include those prospects too

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:02 pm

Or better yet, if Omar can figure out a way to just trade Church for Santana. Dare I bring up “trade lube” again?

gomets2008 December 18, 2007 at 3:04 pm

Reminds me of the scene in SUPERBAD outside the liquor store..too funny.

throatneedle December 18, 2007 at 3:23 pm

TRADE LUBE all the way!

Charlie December 18, 2007 at 3:07 pm

How about Omar just steal Santana? Literally. Just kidnap him and force him to pitch for the Mets.

Vinnie December 18, 2007 at 3:12 pm

Well that we work for the people who want to fire Omar. Maybe you can do that with Isiah also. Have him kidnap Onuka Brown and then he can go to jail too.

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:12 pm

I think that is a phenomenal idea!!! We can really test Mr. Met’s allegiance too. Is he willing to spend 10 years behind bars for kidnapping? I don’t know if I’d be willing to let him do it.

Achilles400 December 18, 2007 at 2:50 pm

Sad and tired list.

Achilles400 December 18, 2007 at 2:51 pm

Besides, what is the relevance if not guaged against other teams’ systems? So Fernandez is the best Met prostpect. That is like being the tallest midget.

Peter December 18, 2007 at 2:56 pm

Best comparison of the year.

plasto December 18, 2007 at 3:09 pm

Think the World’s Tallest Midget, Gotay and Mulvey will land Johan?

Do it Omar!

Bench5urvivor December 18, 2007 at 3:16 pm

hell no, have you been paying attention to any of these “rumors” or discussions?

plasto December 18, 2007 at 3:45 pm

Yep. It was a joke.

throatneedle December 18, 2007 at 3:24 pm

sid fernandez retired years ago. dunno which prospect you’re talking about

Achilles400 December 18, 2007 at 3:34 pm

Oops, FMart, once I started typing F… just got distracted.

points guy December 18, 2007 at 2:53 pm

+5

FBones24 December 18, 2007 at 2:54 pm

Who is Dylan Owen? He has an impressive line even if it is in “Short-A” Ball. Anyone have any info on him?

gowrightgo December 18, 2007 at 3:13 pm

Brooklyn world beater. Not highly thought of before the draft but came on big obviously.

Vinnie December 18, 2007 at 2:56 pm

http://metsprospects.blogspot.com/2007/08/dylan-owen.html

Dylan Owen has been dominant for the Class A Short-Season Brooklyn Cyclones. In 11 games (10 starts) Owen is 7-1 with a stellar 1.82 era and has 53 strikeouts and only 11 walks in 54.1 innings. Dylan Owen was selected by the New York Mets in the 20th round of Major League Baseball’s 2007 First-Year Player Draft out of Francis Marion University.

The 21 year old was 10-1 with one save and a 1.14 earned run average for Division II Francis Marion. Owen struck out 121 batters in 102.1 innings pitched, walked only 19, and opponents hit just .208 against him, including a .178 figure by right-handed batters. He recorded three complete games, had six contests with double-figure strikeouts, and established a new PBC career record for strikeouts with 334. Of the 77 hits he allowed this season, only eight were for extra bases and he did not surrender a home run. He leads Division II in ERA and strikeouts. Owen was named the 2007 NCAA Division II national Pitcher of the Year by two different voting groups. He earned first-team Rawlings/American Baseball Coaches Association All-America honors each of the past two years. He was also selected as the Peach Belt Conference Pitcher of the Year for both 2006 and 2007.

gomets2008 December 18, 2007 at 3:01 pm

I can hear the Jefferson’s theme playing to this in my head..lmao.

MealTicket December 18, 2007 at 3:05 pm

Dylan Owen was also named short-season pitcher of the year, covering all short-season leagues, not just the NY-Penn League.

http://www.brooklyncyclones.com/news/?id=6204

Coolpapabell December 18, 2007 at 3:08 pm

This guy looks promising. I can’t wait to see what he does for teh B-Mets.

gowrightgo December 18, 2007 at 3:17 pm

Lets not rush him too fast like some of the others. he is still young and promising.

Part of why our prospects are not garnering more “value” is the test them young at high levels paradigm eschewed by Mets front office guys.

Would it not have been better to have Fernando Martinez and Gomez destroying A ball pitching rather than doing just pretty good in AA and AAA respectively?

Would it not have been better to have Pelfrey and Humber spend at least one full season in AA really making pitches and killing the competition?

Say Pelfrey last year was in AA going 14-2 with a 1.08 whip and 115 strikeouts in 107 innings. Regardless of the fact that he was 23 last year. Think he would be thought of more along the lines of the real deal then?

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:26 pm

What it tells me is they want to keep these guys around because they think very highly of them. So, in order to prep them to be in the majors ASAP, they really push them through the system. I’m definitely not opposed to that. Of course, that backfires when a guy like Santana comes on the market and the value in the farm is down.

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Really good point though.

wnymetsfan December 18, 2007 at 3:32 pm

What does it really prove if a guy is left at a level to just dominate it? You really do not find out about his ability to adjust, etc. Also he doesn’t learn anything. We could have put Pelfrey at A ball and let him just continue to blow away guys with his fastball like in college but he nevers develop. The point of challenging certain guys is that the organization feels they can handle it but also to challenge them to have to adjust to things just like in the majors.

I’m sure the Mets could have left Fernando in the Sally league in 2006 where he was mashing but what does that prove. The fact is the Mets had to move a 17 year old kid up to the FSL to even make him break a sweat which is why every team wants him from us. He battled injuries last year in AA as a 18 year old and still batted .270 ish. He did that against guys 4 to 5 years older than him who have been in the minors for a longer period of time. People within baseball know what kind of ability that shows as few if any guys have even played at that level so young let alone had even mild success. Fernando is the guy. Omar knows it and I doubt he goes anywhere unless Omar is blown away.

Gomez in 2006 struggled early in AA before adjusting and coming on strong in the 2nd half. Yes he could have had better stats lower in the minors but he learned a valuable tool for the majors which is making adjustments. To me that is more important than wow we have a guy batting 400 in a league which obviously is below his talent level. Plus the Mets do not do it with everyone only the select few they feel can handle it. Fernando, Deolis and Gomez seem to be handling it. Pena struggled which is why he will probably repeat the Sally league while Deolis and Fernando advance a level.

gowrightgo December 18, 2007 at 4:38 pm

I’ll jump back in on this one. I totally agree that if they are to become MLr’s…then they need to eventually be able to handle harder and tougher competition. But it is not entirely necessary to push them quite so hard. 21 is still very young for most positional prospects (Gomez). It is even younger for almost every pitching prospect as it is understood that pitching is a craft that takes time to get and master. Certainly it is agreed now that AA is the precursor spot to the bigs and most teams just glance their best prospects with a taste of AAA before moving them to the bigs. AAA has become a place to stash ready help in the form of former MLrs and lesser prospects who are getting too old for the lower levels.

There is no reason to test an 18 yr old in AA when conceivably he could still be at the level at 21 and be young for the development scale.

Fmart and Gomez and Pelfrey and Humber would all have benefited from slowing their progression through our system and their numbers would likely be better. Eventually they must graduate through the system but you do not have to take a brilliant 13 yr old in 8th grade and have him take the SAT and college level courses to see if he can be an average student but young for his grade or college career.

Let him gain the experience and keep his confidence all the while keeping or perhaps inflating his value.

at 25, you need to have graduated the sytem as a positional player. I’d say 26 for the pitchers. But not 18 – 19 or 21 – 23.

Patience may win the long battle and keep the trade possibilities alive

thrilledge 4 prez December 18, 2007 at 4:55 pm

all i know is that thrilledge mashed at every level!!!!these two guys are the spanish jay payton and gary mathews without juice.

MudvilleNine December 18, 2007 at 3:18 pm

13 starts
9 – 1
1.49 era
0.87 whip
12 earned runs
.197 BAA
72.1 innnings
51 hits
69 k’s
12 bb

MudvilleNine December 18, 2007 at 3:23 pm

Also he’ll probably be up to St. Lucie next season. Probably should have been moved up to Savannah midway last season but the Mets and Yanks have a little thing going in the NY-Penn league where they do anything to beat out the other. That includes keeping guys down of bringing guys down to accomplish that.

FBones24 December 18, 2007 at 3:37 pm

The ERA, K’s, and Record are great, however, the number that sticks out to me is the walks. It seems like this guy has had excellent control through college and in A-Ball. Very promising.

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:07 pm

Hey, being a Wichita State Shocker alum, don’t you think Pelfrey should try to develop a split finger? :-)

rogasm December 18, 2007 at 3:36 pm

Ha…Alum of Southwes Missouri State…I used to love when the Shockers would come to town, good times. Big fan of the Valley.

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:41 pm

MVC all the way buddy. Nothing like a little Indiana St. vs. Illinois St. on a cold winter day.

Follow it up with a little Drake vs. Creighton.

Wow…MVC alum. That’s awesome.

metties1 December 18, 2007 at 3:16 pm

I just came across this headline. Its funny how we put so much into rumors when noone know what they are talking about.. This still doesn’t compare to Peter Gammons completely contradicting himself 3 hours after posting his report during the Winter meetings…

In a mailbag for MLB.com, A’s beat writer Mychael Urban suggests that, if the A’s are going to trade a starting pitcher, it will be RHP Rich Harden, not RHP Joe Blanton or RHP Dan Haren.

zen December 18, 2007 at 3:20 pm

lastings milledge, 2008

31hr 101rbi .285avg

new nationals stadium = better dimensions than rfk

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:22 pm

If he puts up those numbers (which I think he has potential to do….maybe 25HR though), we’ll have to call this merchant to make up some shirts (useless tidbit – I already own one that I bought 1.5 yrs ago, in white):

http://www.zazzle.com/fire_isiah_shirt-235018879727043715

throatneedle December 18, 2007 at 3:26 pm

more like .265 17hr 56rbi

points guy December 18, 2007 at 3:34 pm

I think he can easily put up 285-25-80, maybe more considering the chip on his shoulder and playing in an empty stadium.

throatneedle December 18, 2007 at 3:38 pm

sounds like you’re bitter over trading that thug malcontent. i bet you still wished we signed lo duca and traded for snell and nady (so he can platoon w/ church)

-100

points guy December 18, 2007 at 3:52 pm

i’m having a nice day. thanks for asking! how are you?

thrilledge 4 prez December 18, 2007 at 4:58 pm

are those church’s numbers?

wnymetsfan December 18, 2007 at 3:34 pm

Not unless the NL forgets how to throw an outside offspeed pitch because he struggles against them.

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:43 pm

Alfonso Soriano struggles with that pitch too, but it doesn’t usually affect his numbers…does it?

zen December 18, 2007 at 3:47 pm

as does david wright

Hit The Weights Zeile December 18, 2007 at 3:44 pm

heres my question, will OUR pitchers throw those outside offspeed pitches? if he sees an inside fastball at all next year that pitcher should be removed from the game immediately (unless its wagner).

gowrightgo December 18, 2007 at 4:40 pm

LAstings is going to be very good. I don’t care that he has too little plate discipline right now. He can hit. YOu can see it. It is plain as day. Plus he can field and throw. His speed has been overestimated. Seems very good speedwise in the field but on the bases…not so much.

I hate that we dumped him in favor of the win now approach. Further….I hate that we sold him so low on his value scale when we ended up with decent but only slightly better than average players at the positions.

ridethesnake December 18, 2007 at 3:31 pm

I’m not sure if it means anything, but I have never seen the top 9 guys play in the majors enough to know how well they project based on scouts opinions who have actually watched them play, other than maybe Gomez, and I can see the raw talent behind his ranking.

My point is that the guy ranked below all of them at #10, since he still qualifies for this list, has shown us all what he can do in the majors, and he didn’t give up a run in his first 17 games, a longer stretch than Joba went — and even after tiring out he still was impressive overall.

So the experts that have seen the other 9 play extensively enough to rank them, think they have more potential than Joe Smith, even after his impressive year. I know they are all not as close to the majors as Smith, and the further you are the harder to judge, but this means something I would think, no?

zen December 18, 2007 at 3:33 pm

milledge was ranked as a top 10 prospect for years. not mets. major league. he’d be #1 on the list above if he was in the organization w/o any experience.

at 22 years old he had with crazy attention by the media and problems with teammates:

7hr 21rbi .272avg

which projects to (playing full-time w/o improving or maturing):

21hr 87rbi .272

ridethesnake December 18, 2007 at 3:36 pm

what does it project to with deteriorating and not maturing

zen December 18, 2007 at 3:38 pm

w/o = without

ridethesnake December 18, 2007 at 3:41 pm

with = with

ridethesnake December 18, 2007 at 3:41 pm

in other words, without improving is different than with deteriorating.

zen December 18, 2007 at 3:46 pm

he hasn’t played enough to deteriorate. that going from better to worse. he still has to prove he’s good.

i projected based on a small sample and the high ranking milledge received over the years from various scouts (baseball america, scout.com, etc)

higher rankings than any current mets players (minor league)

Hit The Weights Zeile December 18, 2007 at 3:46 pm

you guys are splitting hairs, isnt not maturing the same as w/o maturing?

wnymetsfan December 18, 2007 at 3:38 pm

You also have to assume his production stays level throughout which while possibly is not likely due to the small volume of work. I’m not saying he will not be good to great but he struggled against righties and the offspeed pitch. With the Mets they could spot start him to get the best production without having to have him face the tougher pitchers consistently. The Nats I do not feel have that luxury and I think that for at least year he may struggle a little more.

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:45 pm

e=mc^2

Fire Isiah!

pochemunyet December 18, 2007 at 4:27 pm

Teach Isiah to spell his name right!

Then fire him!

hotrodkanehl December 18, 2007 at 3:36 pm

If I remember one of Matt’s entries of last week, it sounds like the Twins insist on Reyes as the centerpoint of any trade for Santana. Unless they back down on that, there will be no Mets trade for Santana. We also don’t have enought to get Bedard.

So, the choice is: (a) package several of these guys for Blanton, in the hopes that a solid #3+ starter with 200+ innings may shore up our sagging rotation enough to let our lineup make a genuine run in 2008, or (b) go with Pedro, El Duque, Maine, Perez, and whichever of Sosa, Pelfrey, Vargas, Retread-to-be-Named-Later does the least harm in the #5 spot. In my mind, choice (b) makes 2008 a transition year while we see if one or more of Pelfrey, Humber or Mulvey can become a reliable mlb starter by 2009 and hope that Gomez, FMart and Guerroa are for real and mlb-ready within the next two years. But for all the angst over giving up too many high-end prospects, our top 10 list looks very pedestrian except for FMart, Guerroa and maybe Gomez.

tinathemetsgrl December 18, 2007 at 3:37 pm

fire isiah, fire isiah!

i wish stephen a was on today so i could hear some good old knicks trash talk. the fan is boring me today.

though i do agree with danny b. trade them all and we get johan. he’s gotta be a met! some reason i still have faith.

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:52 pm

That’s right Tina.

Before he got here, this team wasn’t going to be good for 5 years. Now they won’t be good for 5 more. Time for a change.

I think we should sign Silva at a discount (sell him on playing for a winner in NY), then trade him back to Minnesota for Santana.

tinathemetsgrl December 18, 2007 at 3:39 pm

hahaha ap reporting that clemens is saying he never took any banned substances

ooh this is funny.

ridethesnake December 18, 2007 at 3:43 pm

I think Clemens is clean.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5iqpb6L7pY

tinathemetsgrl December 18, 2007 at 3:48 pm

OMG LOL That is the most hilarious/scariest thing I’ve seen in weeks.

Yup, he’s definitely clean.

points guy December 18, 2007 at 3:50 pm

are you for real? a girl who listens to wfan?

tinathemetsgrl December 18, 2007 at 3:52 pm

LOL! I love it! I know, I’m a dork! I was actually on last night during the Steve Somers’s show haha

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:54 pm

Ah, was that the infamous 6:20-6:40 spot? Or was it the 10:20-Midnight variety?

Schmooze is the best. He was brought down by the Sweater. Free Somers!!! We want Captain Midnight back!!!

tinathemetsgrl December 18, 2007 at 3:56 pm

He was on after midnight, I think I called around 1:30. Then I was listening to a little bit of Tony Paige before I fell asleep lol

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 3:59 pm

Tony Paige is good for 5 of those a week.

I think that spot should be reserved for Benigno or Somers. All the way.

Fire Isiah!!!! Fire Isiah!!!!

tinathemetsgrl December 18, 2007 at 4:01 pm

yeah, Paige is pretty good.

Fire Isiah!! Fire Isiah!! The 20 straight misses last night was really funny.

ooh wfan said we just signed matt wise!! the signing we’ve all been waiting for!!!!!!

dannyb December 18, 2007 at 4:03 pm

Like my friend Borat would say, “Eh, that was a Wise signing NOT.”

“That was a Wise signing pause not.”

icedrake523 December 18, 2007 at 3:40 pm

About 2 of those 10 guys will have a small amount of success, at best. Trade them all for Santana. He’ll be worth more over 5 years than all of those guys, combined, over 10.

mad_mike December 18, 2007 at 3:43 pm

Note to Omar – invest more in the draft.

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