In his blog for the Star-Tribune, La Velle E. Neal III writes that the Mariners are not in the running for LHP Johan Santana, concluding, “It’s the Mets, Yanks and Red Sox.”
In the comment’s section, he adds that the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox are the only teams being ‘taken seriously’ at this point.
In a post to Seth Speaks, a popular Twins blog, mostly about minor leaguers, Seth Stohs writes…
“If the Mets would offer Carlos Gomez, Mike Pelfrey OR Philip Humber, Kevin
Mulvey and one other prospect, I think that the Twins would have to consider it. If that prospect was Deolis Guerra, they would be silly to say no.”
…i have a feeling it will take one additional prospect, or maybe even a guy like Aaron Heilman as well…i mean, after all of that has been said and written, i just can’t see the Twins accepting a four-prospect package from the Mets, but that’s more opinion than fact…
…as of today, the only buzz i can pick up in new york is that the Red Sox, Mets and Yankees continue to take issue with dishing out a seven-year contract for any player, let alone santana, if for no other reason than the deal will never get insured…
…from the Sox and Yankees point of view, with insurance, plus the luxury tax and his salary, santana will technically cost roughly $30 million per season…
Similarly, at his blog for the Journal News, Peter Abraham writes, “There are no indications that the Yankees will suddenly get back into the mix for Johan Santana,” mostly because of financial reasons.
Lastly, In his recent article for SNY, Ted Berg argues against trading for Santana, while adding that any one of Pedro Martinez, John Maine or Oliver Perez could be the front-line starting pitcher the team is need of.
…sure, but santana will be that guy…and will be added to pedro, maine and perez…seriously, it’s hard to deny how significant the four of them could be…and while i’d miss a few of the youngsters needed in a deal, i’d get over it…
…again, the way i see it, unless the Mets are certain that one of pelfrey, humber or mulvey will eventually be as good as santana, who is not yet 30 years old, then, given how important this coming season is, minaya must pull the trigger…
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Same stuff, different year.
*chuckle*
This is my first post here, what a great website!
It may because i’m a Met’s fan, but, I truly believe that we will get Santana. I believe this because of the inactivity. I think that unless a secret team comes in the last minute, Santana will be a Met before the end of January!
The link to the Twins blog isn’t working :(
If Zito got 7, Santana will as well.
Well, if baseball was fair, and Zito got 7, shouldn’t Johan get a lifetime contract?
probably…
But my point is that a baseline has been established
I am baffled by Zito’s contract. Sometimes, contracts like that actually hurt players such as Johan, who clearly deserves at least double what Zito is worth.
Yet with a mistake contract such as Zito’s teams become gun shy.
Of course the topper would have been if Zito got hurt. If he blew out his shoulder, Johan’s looking at 5 yrs max.
I’d do that deal so fast….
Imagine if the Mets actually do get Santana…..To me it changes them from a team that could be in the running for a division title/wildcard (maybe 88-90 wins) to a clear cut NL favorite and a team with a realistic chance at winning it all. Big difference. Please just get him already. Please!
It would make us legitimate WS contenders along with only the Sox and the Skanks. Yet, some people are shy to pull the trigger.
Again, ladies and gentlemen, this is Johan Santana. The best pitcher in baseball entering the prime of his career. if he blows out his elbow, well hell, we gave it a shot. But don’t be scared of greatness.
You are absolutley right my friend. Someone making sense finally. Not like all those begging to keep our mediocre prospects and not pay Santana.
i havent posted in a couple of days but points guy you are preaching to the choir. this is johan santana, and hes in his prime. if we CAN get him you have to, no excuses.
Smitty, first of all these aren’t mediocre prospects. They’re very good or excellent. They only pale when compared to ML ready guys from only a few other organizations. That said those ” major league ready” guys could fail as well, they are “prospects” for now. Just don’t run down the Mets prospects, they’re actually as good as most.
Now about Johan; git er done! If we can trade for this guy with a package of minor leaguers that doesn’t wipe out our farm then DUH… get it done! We need a top leftie more than most competing teams. Let’s not give away
the farm though.
About Matt; stop chugging your own kool aid dude!!! ‘From all that’s been written’ you’d have thought they would need to trade more?! You need to consult a physicians desk reference about the side effects of kool aid man. Before the internet and blogs like yours went went crazy, nobody would have dreamed of trading six prospects for one pitcher who you’d have to pay like a free agent anyway.
Whose side are you on anyways? “Dear Mets.com: lose this Mattie guy, he’s bad for your GM”
Santana is available? Wow, I need to keep up with the news better!
Too bad the Twin’s didn’t make Seth the GM. Gomez, Humber, Mulvey and 1 more guy (not Guerra?) Even Omar pulls the trigger on that one.
Gomez, 2 pitching prospects, and 1 more position guy (other than martinez) is more than the Twins will get if he walks. And not a bad haul for a very expensive rental.
The Mets do have some interesting younger position prospects, although some of them might not be tradable yet (2007 draftees). There must be someone that catches their eye as maybe the next big steal (like what’s his name from the Astros).
Maybe that’s why it’s taking so long. Those prospects can’t be traded until January 7, 2008. I have been saying all along we will wind up with Santana and have been wondering if that’s the reason why. There are about 4 or 5 that can’t be touched until then and some ranked pretty high on the list.
All those people quoted by Cerrone are idiots.
That being said, I don’t believe Omar offered any more than 3 solid prospects and a 4th garbage one. Meanwhile, we need to send them 5 solid prospects.
I’m growing more and more confident that Santana will be a Met. Hopefully, FMart will stay. If he is a deal breaker, I’d send him.
Omar has to go for it with 4 prospects or 5. The 7 year contract not being insurable is a real problem. Isn’t there a way to insure 5 years of the deal and self insure the other two? I do not know the principals of insurance but that might not be a bad deal if possible. This guy is a bonafide ACE and the Mets could have 3 great pitchers for the next 7 years (Santana, Perez and Maine) and Pedro for 3-4 years if he would sign another 2 year contract with an option for a third. Time enough to find a few stud prospects and develop them. Being able to keep FMart would also be a great plus.
In Omar we trust!!!!!!!
i dont really believe any of the bs from these socalled ‘experts’…that said i do enjoy reading all this speculation…the one thing that i like is that is seems that the # of prospects the mets would need to part with seems to be getting smaller…maybe time IS on our side…
I’ with you all the way. Omar is playing a good game of poker.
Omar’s not playing a good game. He lucked out b/c BoSox don’t really care for Johan and the Skanks exorbitant spending may have finally caught up to him.
So he could have only done it wrong. He does it right and he still was wrong.
Response to points guy:
If the Sox got Johan they’d be the best team in Major League Baseball, ahead of the currently stacked Tigers.
The fact is, if the get rid of both Ellsbury, Lester & Lowrie, age becomes an issue.
The Sox would be overloaded with guys above 30 and well past their prime, and when all you got is Pedroia, Papelbon, Beckett and Johan you still have to be very insecure about the future of your offense.
The insurance issue is a real one, but there are always creative solutions for the problem that can be found. Especially when the team in question has the financial resources the Mets do.
As much as I don’t like the Wilpons, I just don’t think the Mets are even players in this unless Mets ownership is willing to deal with Santana and his contract.
While the length of the deal, and the money, are reasons for possible hesitancy in handing over too many players in exchange for Santana, I just don’t think it’s the cash that is keeping a deal from getting done.
The Twins are trying to maximize their return here. And they probably feel their best chance of doing that is playing a patient waiting game as long as they can, or until they finally get offered some predetermined package they would accept.
For all we know the Mets made no real offer, or an enormous offer. The lack of a deal probably just has more to do with the Twins than the other parties.
+2
I think the Twins and the Twins fans are in shock over the offers they’ve received.
Can’t argue with that. Either way, the longer it takes , I believe, the Mets stand a good chance to pull this off.
Im overly sick of the Santana babble…plz Matt , move on….it will never happen. Omar needs to either pony up , or just get someone else in here…Im fine with Colon, and letting the kids go again…so plz find something more reading/comment worthy then the deja-vu dumb Santana gaaaarbage!!
Nothing news about Santana is frankly more interesting than any real news on Colon/Garcia/etc. That is why there continue to be posts about someone who happens to mention Santana while walking down the street. As sick as it is, I would probably rather see a post about 2 guys working on CITIFIELD discussing the implications of getting Santana over lunch than one officially stating that the Mets have signed Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse or any other non-difference maker.
Well 1st – God bless your tolerance…I only hope it works as well on high volumes of alcohol. And 2ndly – Im not sure how long u have been a member like some of us? If you have been here longer than 3 months u have to be somewaht tired of the Santana reposts.
Keep em coming.
I’m loving the Santana posts from Matt. Always a new little tidbit in them. Combined with the fact that nothing has actually happened ,it keeps our hopes alive. Patience seems to be working for Omar here or maybe its hesitation by the Twins. Either way we have a chance to land the best pitcher in baseball and its fun to be in the chase. For years we weren’t while the Yanks always were.
Wow, I didn’t realize I was a “member” of Metsblog…I guess membership has its priveleges.
You’re not a member your a tool. lmao..jk
I know there is a post everyday, but how is that worse than there not being a post. I am also frustrated that nothing is happening, but its not like it gets my hopes up everytime I see a Santana post. By now I know it means nothing. Having said that, I maintain that there is no harm in reading and discussing Santana possibilities.
Do it.
Trade lube.
OWNERSHIP IS NOT WILLING TO PAY SANTANA.
It’s really that simple. The prospects are not the issue. In fact, they are blatantly a smokescreen.
I would love to see a reporter put a mic in Omar’s, or even better, Jeff’s face and point blank ask what they would be willing to pay Santana.
The Mets are in the sweepstakes. They’ve met with and exchanged offers with the Twins already. I hardly think Omar goes through such an exercise if he is not serious about signing him and gotten some sort of an OK from the Wilpons regarding financial parameters. Basically, that’s what you’re saying he’s doing. Acting.
The worst thing the Mets could do would be to have Smith accept a trade offer and then the Mets not being able to meet Santana’s price. Everyone knows what that price basically is already so they couldn’t claim it was a surprise. If they know they won’t meet it, they should just bow out instead of just teasing the fans.
Can’t – it’s tampering and they’d get fined.
Mets wouldn’t even be in this if money was a factor. They are clearly willing to pay Johan. If he were a free agent, he would have been a Met already.
Hey, at least it looks like its either Santana (and lose the farm) or Colon (and keep the farm)…either one of which I can live with…I guess. I’m grateful that the Livan (guaranteed to SUCK) and Silva (guaranteed to suck in a Trachsel-ian way for FOUR years) are, Thank the Lord, off the table
What happened to firemetsmanagement? I am concerned about his disappearance…unless he has just gone DORMANT, like this MICKEY MOUSE FRANCHISE (which is DEAD TO ME) etc etc etc
…two straight dormant offseasons sandwiched around a disasterous collapse…
could be he’s just on vacation and unable to post here five times an hour like when he’s at work….
Not to mention that they failed to play Vlad Guerrero, raising ticket prices 20 percent, Ante up, Freddie, etc, etc…
Conclusions drawn from offseason as a whole:
1) The Yankees are very arrogant about their prospects, but just don’t want Santana on the Sox
2) The Sox want Santana, because they’d be the team to beat, no doubt. However, they Ellsbury. When Ramirez and Ortiz get old, the Sox need to be prepared. They won’t budge from Lowrie, Lester, Crisp & Masterson. It would take the same offer minus Crisp and plus Ellsbury to get Santana.
3) The Mets want Santana. The Twins would love him in the NL. Santana wants to pitch in the NL. The Mets current offer consists of Carlos Gomez, Aaron Heilman, and two prospects, probably Philip Humber and a pitcher like Kevin Mulvey, Mike Pelfrey, Deolis Guerra or Jon Niese. With another prospect the Mets may have the most competitive offer.
4) All 3 teams have problems with the long term deal that it may take to lock up Santana long term.
5) It would be complete idiocy and lunacy for the Twins to keep Johan Santana after Opening Day and to keep Joe Nathan past the trade deadline. Even with them, they have a small shot at the playoffs.
We only need 1, maybe 2 things.
1: An innings eater like Blanton.
and/or
2: We need for Willy/Peterson to be more patient when a starter has a shutout going, or, has allowed 1 run after 6 – 7 innings.
Our starters were removed 27 times last year with 1 or no runs allowed after 6 – 7 innings.
Bogus stat. Could have been removed in the 7th or 8th with the bases loaded and nobody out, winning 2-1 or losing 1-0.
Oliver Perez was removed 6 times — though once he gave up 5 unearned runs. He was 5-0 in the other 5 games.
John Maine was removed 9 times — he was 8-0 with just one no decision. The Mets won the game.
Pedro once — pitch count
Glavine was removed 11 times. 9-0 with two no decisions. The Mets lost one of those two.
There are your 27. Mets were 26-1 in those games.
If your point was that the bullpen was hurt by overuse, you could also say that the starting pitching was so good because of the pitch counts, and that the Mets 26-1 record in those games could have been worse if they left their starters in too long.
Glavine removes himself basically. Mets fans should know that by now. He let Peterson and Willie know when he was done.
I think danny’s point is that just because they were removed when they had given up few runs, doesn’t mean they weren’t struggling at that point or even for the last few innings.
They go by pitch counts. No need to get excessive there. You could ruin a few arms that way.
They need to make sure the bullpen doesn’t have 3 black holes at the backend of it like they did last year. The lack of length on the part of starters is exacerbated by a lousy bullpen.
That just might be the scariest stat (yet obviously true) that I’ve seen in a long time….
OK, so who is Santana going to replace in the lineup?
How many more wins will he get than who he replaced?
And how much of the future are you willing to trade?
And how much salary are you willing to pay?
This guy is too expensive, that’s why all the other teams
are not in contention.
1. Glavine
2. Probably about 8 more wins. It should be noted that its not all about the difference in wins or homers between the incumbent and the replacement. You have to consider the trickle down effect that Santana will have. He makes Pedro a 2, Maine a 3, Perez a 4. He is also a stopper (unlike Glavine who stops losing streaks and can dominate short playoff series). Even if he finishes with the same amount of wins as Glavine, he has more value because of what he does for the rest of the team.
3. Just about all of it as long as they are primarily minor leaguers and could end up doing nothing.
4. Whatever it takes (they should have the money based on where they play, CITI field, SNY, 3.8 mil fans last year.
5. Other teams are not in contention because they cant afford him like the Mets can.
What’s my score?
+1000
rM teM.
Santana produces more innings, exponentially more efficient innings, and will do so for many years.
Hypothetical: Gomez, Heilman, Pelf, Mulv, Humb for Santana.
Still got Martinez & Guerra and 3… count ‘em… 3 first round draft picks (thank you tom).
Answers to your questions:
1) Santana replaces no one he is an ACE with 20 wins
2)Pedro replaces Glavine. with 15 wins.Maine and Perez win 15 again each. Colon or Sosa replace the number 5 rotation man wins next year.
3)4 to 5 prospects , mostly pitchers Pelfry, Humber, etc, and Gomez.
4) 7 years 150 million dollars without having to pay the payroll tax that the Yanks and Red Sox would have to pay with Santana on board.
We can make this happen, strengethen the bull pen and win the World Series next year. How’s that for “BELIEVIN”?
We all know the players, the teams, and the uncertainty of a rookie GM in Minny. What we don’t know is when. So let’s pick a day. I say Santana finally gets traded Jan. 24th.
And what if he blows his shoulder out in the
first spring training game? I know I’m in a
very small minority, maybe alone and too
conservative, but I’m afraid of putting so many
eggs in this one basket. How many guy’s come
to NY and become a big bust?
What decent options are you referring to exactly? Colon, Livan Hernandez?
Well, it isn’t an either/or (Trade or washed up FA). Their is a thrid choice, which is go with what they have.
Right now, the rotation is full. Pedro, maine, perez, Duque and Pelfrey.
A washed up FA doesn’t really make it any better, just different, but it does address the big problem of depth.
If you get Santana, you are also going to get some more washed up reclamation projects, since there won’t be any depth left in the system to cover for injuries. This is assuming the the ML ready talent such as Pelfrey is traded away.
Now, if they keep Pelfrey, then you have a solid 6 man rotation.
I doubt Dotel would help “immensely” next year – he’s been pretty horrible the past few seasons.
Nady would help, but I doubt the Pirates would part with him cheaply. If Omar could manage to package something together for him and Snell, that would address a lot of problems.
Colon is definitely worth taking a flyer on, if he’s willing to do a one-year deal.
What makes you think this is all he is focusing on? If it was all he was focusing on it wold be foolish, but I think it’s more foolish to believe that to be the case.
You actually bring up the fragile nature of trading away your farm for a pitcher when your farm system is thin. People keep pontificating about the inherent danger in depending on prospects but generally ignore the dangers of trading a veritable cornucopia of your best prospects for one pitcher, albeit the best one in baseball. Suppose that pitcher is injured or worse yet blows his arm out. Where does that leave you and the future of the franchise? Over a long season having depth is as important as any other issue. And baseball has a way of exposing weaknesses.
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