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According to Bill Madden, in a report for the Daily News, “Almost every pitcher bestowed with a contract of five or more years has broken down and disappointed,” starting 
with Wayne Garland in 1977 through Kevin Brown in 1999, and so many others in between.
…madden gives a lot of interesting information, in support of being very, very afraid of the long-term deal…however, and i can only speak for myself, but i have a feeling this logic is totally wasted on fans…
…anyway, from what i can gather, this is as much of a roadblock in any deal for Johan Santana as any other element, not just for the Mets, but for the Yankees and Red Sox as well…and understandably so…and it’s not like these three teams are short on cash, yet they’re all still hesitant…
Multiple reports have suggested that Santana’s agent has leaked to teams that he is seeking at least a seven-year deal worth more than $140 million.
…however, the sense i get, having talked with people connected to santana, is that while this is clearly the preferred contract, if it means putting johan in to a situation he is happy to be part of, he’s willing to be creative with how a deal is structured…
oh..maybe that’s why my comment about this article with the link got blocked, cuz you were putting it up…good job..bill madden is excellent
I think this is really the point a lot of fans gloss over. I want Santana on the 2008 Mets as much as anyone, and if a deal could be struck involving four of our guys (Gomez/Martinez, Pelfrey, Mulvey, Heilman), I think the Mets should go for it — but history has shown that 7-year contract for a pitcher is nothing but trouble for whoever inherits it. I think all the 4-5 year deals being thrown around for mid-rotation guys the past two years is going to lead to a bubble-bursting effect around the league in a few years when these guys either get injured, or become grossly overpaid back-end starters.
Bottom line, I don’t blame these GMs for hesitating, and maybe ultimately backing away. I also wanted Mike Hampton on the 2001 Mets more than anyone (and he a year younger at that point in his career than Santana is now). Yes, Colorado killed Hampton’s numbers, but so did the myriad of injuries he’s suffered towards the back-end of his contract.
I don’t see how anyone can sit back and think with 100% confidence that Johan is automatically immune to the problems/injuries that have been levied to every other pitcher who has signed these huge multi-year contracts.
He’s not immune and it’s all about total contract value — you’re not really getting him for seven years — you’re paying him that much more for four or five. But thise four or five are, optimistcally, ace level years. Every year Santana is an ace is a year the Mets are in contention for championship, provided the rest of the team doesn’t dip from last year’s talent level.
Anyway, I still think he’s worth a bushel of minor leaguers, but I’m getting a bit more pessimistic about the Mets’ chances — I think the rest of the league thinks they’re desperate and waiting to overpay. Restraint might send a message.
So give him 5 years at 120M and options at the back end. We’re already paying more money for nothing… may as well have Santana on opening day. Raising ticket prices after the collapse last year and cutting payroll is egregious. I don’t care how much the front office has to spend or how much they pay the man to throw a baseball here.
here here
Just based on histroy, and statistics, of course it is probable that Johan won’t live up to the contract.
Usually on these long term FA deals (A Rod might be the exception) you are paying a premium for what the player did in the past, and overpaying for what he will do in the future. Especailly on a 5+ year deat for a pitcher!
If he gets traded now, he might have evenmore leverage, since the trading team will be under pressure to sign him. Who knows what the offers will be if he goes FA, and he won’t have the fallback (stay on the Twins) that he has now.
Say he does get traded. Maybe they weren’t “serious” about the 7 years? Or it was a smokescreen to set up negotiations (or weed out poor teams?)
Be creative. Guarantee 4 year extension (through the 2012 season), which is 5 years including his current deal for 2008. Anything beyond that is options (vesting or mutual).
Or up the money and shorten the years.
Just don’t guarantee 7 years at 20million+!
Except for his first year, I thought Carlos Beltran put up some decent numbers.
he is for all the grief we give him a true warrior man
If any pitcher can make it through a 7 year contract, I would think Johan Santana would be the guy. The Twins have treated his arm like Gold. He’s pretty much been on a pitch count his entire career. The Twins are very careful when handling their pitchers. As a Twins fan, I would like Johan to stay but as that will not happen, I would like for him to be traded to a NL team. Then we won’t have to face him a be reminded of what we used to have. Good Luck Mets on your pursuit.
Barry Zito will probably make through his 7 years without getting hurt, he is just horrible. And we just had a pitcher who made it through a lengthy stay and didnt get hurt once. And he is a lefty by the name Tom Glavine, so it does happen. Glavine, Zito and Santana have one thing in common other than being Lefties and that is they dont miss starts. So if I was to give a 7 year contract to someone it would be Santana.
u forgot tommyboy got a his teeth knocked out in that taxi accident
i wonder if hes giving smoltz the toothless b.j
if that comment wasn’t about the br*ves, i’d say it was inappropriate.
sorryitsmetsforme
just a lil blue humour
he probably is. what traitorous slime glavine is.
Well, it’s just me, but I’d try to get him and if a long term deal isn’t negotiated we have all season to do so.
Hell, he may love NY and love the Mets. But worse comes to worse we’ll sign him for 6-7 years.
No one would trade unless a deal is negotiated before hand. The “72-hour deadline” that has been talked about ad infinitum. If they traded the farm for a 1 year rental, even the biggest sympatizers on this site would go batty!!
Yes, yes yes, I understand. What people here would have to understand is that we can use the whole year to negotiate if nothing is done in this little window.
If nothing is done in the “little window”, there wouldn’t be a trade at all. Do you know how this works?
Yes, but I think Omar knows that he has all year, and if he gives in it isn’t so bad having Santana for 7 years. It’s not like the Mets’ payroll is through the roof. They aren’t paying luxury tax yet.
remember the window we had with hampton — then lowballed him at the begining and end of the season? look i know he came up craps with the rox and braves but call a spade a spade I do think if he stayed with the mets he woulda been a legend like a cone
Weren’t there reports that Santana wouldn’t approve a trade unless he gets an extension? Regardless, any team that trades for Santana without first locking him up to a long term deal, is taking a huge gamble and will hand all negotiating leverage over to Santana. He knows that if he hits free agency, $140 million might just be the starting point,
You don’t make a trade like this if you don’t get an extension. End of story, period, no argument. If Omar gets Santana and doesn’t have an immediate extension and says he has all year I will camp out front of Shea until they fire him. That would be the worst baseball decision ever. Santana may want to be on the Mets, but if he has the chance to get to free agency he will get more money on a team he wants to be on. If you don’t extend him before you get him you aren’t extending him.
I am fine with sitting tight. I initially wanted Santana, but the more this drags on, and the more I think about it, I think it’s better to just hang on to the kids, and let them develop.
We have 3 1st round picks this year, and should be able to reload the system pretty quickly. Today, he’s the best pitcher in the game, but 3 years from now, where will he be?
If the worst thing that happens this offseason is that we keep Pelfrey, Heilman, and F-Mart, then I think we’ll be ok.
3 years from now, he will still be one of the best pitchers in the game.
And why is keeping Heilman so smart? He is arbitration eligible and is in the last year in his contract. He is a reliever. He is one of 11 guys seriously in the running for an MLB relief spot on the New York. He wants to be a starter and would probably want lots of money as well. Remember guys, he’s turning 30. It’s time for us to move on from him. There is no one way to approach a bullpen, and if he is one of the players necessary to net, say, Johan Santana, it should be done. Aaron Heilman isn’t going to be a Met in 2009. Keeping him is just as short-sighted as trading prospects.
heilman will be gone next season belive u me he sees himself as a starter and he hass alluded on more than one occasion that hes not happy in the relief role
Heilman can’t leave just because he doesn’t to be a reliever. He is arbitration eligible after the season, not a free agent. If the Mets want him back in 2009, Heilman has no choice but to come back (or retire).
no hes a f/a next year man
Arbitration eligible this year, and free agent next. get your facts right.
I think Santana will be alot like Pedro in the way he will be able to win after he loses his fastball a little. They both have great command and they have a devastating change.
3 years from now?! the guy is 28/29 years old right now. what do you mean where will he be 3 years from now?
here’s your answer: still one of the best if not the best pitchers in the game.
I agree. Let our kids come through the system. Santana isn’t worth all the Mets would have to give up. Let Boston or the Yukees have him. Good riddance.
Other than Kevin Brown, none of those guys were as good as Santana has been. One thing worth noting with Brown is he was given a 7 year deal at the age of 34. Santana would be given one at the age of 29. Don’t recall much about Brown, but Santana has never had any injuries and he doesn’t throw exceptionally hard (FB is 93 tops, his out pitch is his change).
I’ve seen Johan throw 96 with his fastball multiple times…
and his out pitch is most certainly his slider.
I would have to disagree there Santana’s out pitch is his change. He does have a great slider though which is why he is such a great pitcher. I hope if we get him he could help Ollie a little considering they are both lefties and Ollie has that nice slider.
When are we re-signing Ollie to a multi-year? He’ll be a free-agent next year!!!
No rush. We have to find out if he’s for real. Also, there might be some crazy mid season deal that gives us Cabrera and Dontrelle for Perez straight up!
;-)
He can probably throw it at 96. Most of the time it’s 93-94. The point is he doesn’t have a 97-99 fastball that would wear down his arm more. The fact that his 82-84 mph change is his outpitch has helped him stay free of significant injuries.
This is not Kevin Brown or Chan Ho Park, Freddie Coupons. This is a BIG pitcher, the ace you have been coveting since Dwight Gooden. Ante up. You are not the Pittsburgh Pirates.
I agree. For once.
Carlos Gomez
Kevin Mulvey
Deolis Guerra
Aaron Heilman
Ruben Gotay
for
Johan Santana.
Reasons to trade:
Carlos Gomez – I see so little in him. A huge risk reward guy, and with Church and Beltran not free agents for four years, he is literally competing with Fernando Martinez for an MLB spot. Martinez is certainly better, and the Twins are just about the only team comparing Gomez to Delmon Young and Jacoby Ellsbury. The Mets should take advantage of that.
Kevin Mulvey – Good all around pitcher. Twins fans compare him to Jon Garland. He is a very replaceable pitcher, especially with Jon Niese on the rise.The Twins Front Office values him very highly.
Deolis Guerra – Long way away, but Guerra is highly regarded and may be the top pitching prospect we need to bbe serious candidates for Johan.
Aaron Heilman – very good setup man, but he is 29 going on 30 and the Twins already have a solid relief corps, but the Twins may think that he helps them if they decide to trade Joe Nathan
Ruben Gotay- simply no room on the roster for him. Damion Easley and Marlon Anderson combined have played well over 10 times as many games at 2B than Gotay, and Gotay has played a total of 7 games on the left side of the infield, as opposed to Easley’s 363.
More reasons for Heilman:
- Arbitration eligible.
- Final year of contract
- Setup man in a bullpen that is looking to make like Curtis Mayfield and “Move On Up”
- Valuable trade piece that could really convince the Twins that the Mets have the best offer.
Yeah, thats what I want, a 38 year old guy playing on the left side of the infield, who’s already proven he doesnt have the range anymore at second so why would that range improve at short. Hey you guys want to get rid of Gotay who can run, field, and especially hit, then its fine by me. But you better come up with a better backup plan at short then Damien Easley. Whose premature signing by the way, has taken up a spot that that right-handed hitting platoon player you wanted to go with Church out in rightfield.
Oh and the reason Anderson and Easley have more games at second in the majors then Gotay could be that Easley has played 16 years in the majors and Anderson 10 where Gotay has played about a season and a half. So I guess your right there. I’d go with old-timers over youth any day as well.
1. Gotay can’t run and has a terrible glove.
2. Why does his age matter if he’s a scrub?
3. How many games have Reyes and Wright missed, anyway?
4. Gotay may have had a fluky year.
5. I don’t think age matters for a single year backup infielder. There are young guys like Castillo or Cantu available very year via free agency.
6. RUBEN GOTAY IS NOT A SHORTSTOP! HE PLAYED THERE TWICE 2 YEARS AGO!
and 5 times at third base.
and Easley has had productivity from the bench for MULTIPLE years.
LOL. I shouldnt argue with a guy that has no credibility after that statement. Gotay cant run? LOL Has a terrible glove? Meanwhile a lot of baseball people were saying that he fields well enough to play the position, that if a Castillo wasnt there they would be fine with him there. Age matters when you want someone playing the position that can actually get to the ball. As for Wright and Reyes, well everyone agrees that they needed more rest last year then what they got and willie has already said they’ll be given more time to rest this coming season. Someone has to play there when that happens. Fluky year, maybe, but Easley’s sudden resurgence with the bat last year may also have been fluky. As for the FA backup, name one from this year they could have signed? No one I can think of. By the way, Gotay has played short in the minors several times as well as thirdbase so its not like he hasnt played there and he was the backup at those positions last year. Easley played third twice and zero times at short last year. Gotay played third twice and short 5 times last year. Easleys production from the bench is suppose to be as a pinch hitter, but here is his averages (I know nobody likes avgs.): 2000- .259, 2001- .250, 2002- .224, 2003- .187, 2004- .238, 2005- .240, 2006- .233, then finally the resurgence which sure looks fluky to me: 2007- .280. The guy is 38. No manager or GM would put him in a position to have to play short anymore. I asked for another option and you still give me the geriatric one. As of right now Gotay is considered as the backup at short and third, and he had even taken over second from Easley before they got Castillo so I dont see where your arguement is even coming from.
Right now, the Mets offer is Carlos Gomez, Aaron Heilman, Kevin Mulvey/Mike Pelfrey & Philip Humber for Johan Santana.
It might have a fighting chance. All I’m really suggesting is add Guerra, keep Humber and add Gotay, who is now a scrub.
thats super scrub to u
scrub is the funniest word in regards to an athlete. ahaha.
I’m willing to gamble on the youngsters. All we need are a couple more who pan out that we can control and have at youngster prices (like we did with Wright and Reyes), then we have a really solid core and money to burn in the future on free agents we need to fill the gaps. Let the kids play!
Here Here!
For once? you clown. Name one thing that I’ve said that has been outlandish or out of line. I simply expect this team to raise their payroll in exchange for the way we’ve been gauged on ticket prices…and also expect this team to make up for the collapse and for 2 consecutive bad/lifeless offseasons by upstaging the Yankees for ONCE and getting what is the last and only big pitcher on the market- a once in a lifetime type pitcher.
Preach on!
Putting all your eggs in one basket…
-25
/with apologies to Points Guy
hey firemm
u know the mets renegged on the promise to carry over us guys that have partial plans to citifield next season? now thats corporate greed at its finest screw the little guy that can only go to 3,7,or 13 games a season
You told us to trade John Maine or some crap?
Or was that someone else?
Whatever. The fact remains that you have been constantly been preaching the removal of Omar for trading Milledge and getting both Church and Schneider, when Church alone holds more ground in baseball than Milledge. The Nationals GM Jim Bowden simply is in love with toolsy minor league outfielders. You also have discredited Omar and the Wilpon ownership before any Johan deal has been done.
i never said to trade maine! thats heressy!!!! scott schoenweiss now thats another barrel of gefelte fish lol
I was talkin to FMM.
Madden is ignoring a number of deals in order to make his point. Just off the top of my head, Randy Johnson won 4 straight Cy Youngs after signing with the Diamondbacks, Pedro Martinez’s deal with the Red Sox worked out pretty darn well for them, and Greg Maddux signed a 4 year deal with the Braves, and then a 5 year, and won close to 200 games (if someone wants to do the exact math, cool). I’m not saying that a long term deal isn’t a risk, but that it isn’t a lock to be a bust. It depends more on the pitcher than the deal. Those are all hall of fame pitchers, and for Santana to be worth the amounts to the general public that are being tossed around, he’d have to be approaching the hall too. So it could be argued that the odds of this contract working out are the same as the odds as Santana making the hall, but I think that’s taking it a bit far.
the wilpon’s will probably insists on a health component like they tried do w/ valdie, how did that work out. the wilpon’s are scared of success, and i am tired of it.
uhhh jersey are you forgeting mo (the thing that ate the east coast) vaughn??
Doesn’t surprise me Rusty….this team will not get one red cent from me until they do something to make up for the collapse- something to excite their fanbase. Firing Randolph would have been one way to do that, but I guess you have to give people of color a pass. I did not know that they renegged on their promise to the partial season ticket holders. Wilpon is the Grinch and will always be Freddie Coupons to me and anybody else who “gets it.” And yes..haha…how did all of the “medical concern” regarding Guerrero work out? That was a complete joke. You could have had him for 5 years, 70 million guaranteed…which would have been a STEAL. But the Wilpons weren’t interested, as usual. They are afraid of success, you are right. Guerrero would get 7 years/150 million on the open market today. Screw the Wilpons. Sell the team.
i disagree about with you about willie i mean yeah he tends to manage with his gut way too much buti think he was is uttershock over the collapse too (do u think his gut lost his subway endorsement??) and u know what ffm i did reup my tix i am fisrt and foremost a fan – since the day i was born ive seen the kevin kobels, charlie puleos, bruce boclairs joel youngbloods etc and i was like u back in the early part of this decade with art (were battling) howe maybe im a fool but i do hope the cupons do throw us a bone and do something for us partial plan fans. ffm i admire your fire – even though u are off base every so often but abandoning the tea isnt gonna make us happy either – except in the case of the knicks ( fire isiah!!!!!!!!!)
Willie Randolph is a competent manager who was forced to work with an oft-injured lineup (really nobody’s fault, in the end) and a pitching staff which refused to work in multiple roles.
“Firing Randolph would have been one way to do that, but I guess you have to give people of color a pass.”
There is no need for that.
hey did u notice the 2 guys we got for pagan were white?? viva l*s mets
(just a wee hint of sarcasm)
one problem….. randolph wasnt the problem
I think nobody is considering that contracts over 5 yrs are uninsureable (sp?) i would offer the same 140 mil from the 7 yr contract and make it for 5 yrs. (team opt for 2 more for minimal $ or whatever…u get the idea…give himwhat he wants, just for 5 yrs.) if u are the mets you HAVE to do this deal. we MAY, in fact, be able to get to the playoffs without JS next year, and in the future but this deal is about once we are in the playoffs!!! as it is now, or with a middle of the road SP we lose in the first round(ala the skankees) this deal enables the Mets to have the pitching matchup advantage in game 1 of ANY series as well as slotting all our other SP’s to face a lesser opponent. ie. Pedro against a teams #2 Maine vs. #3 etc. Do you have any idea the extra revenue which would result from Just advancing to the second round of the playoffs? I am scared to even imagine. (JS could poss. make up the equiv. of his whole contract in just 1 year!!
bb ur partially right willie wasn’t the only suspect in the collapse – omar buying into his uber gm hype by making weak trades and some weaker signings (see vargas and chan “hidey” ho park along with the injuries and by the end the general apathy and breakdown in the teams mechanics is what did the team in – i wont blame ricky h for jose but u know he does have a rep for being a lazy trouble maker hopefully omar will rehire rick down and put hojo back as 1b coach
If I am the manager of a business, and my employees stop showing up for work… and on my watch, the entire store was robbed and burned to the ground, I don’t think I would keep my job for very long afterwards.
touchee
grow up and dont be dumb please. no one was robbed, nothing burned, everyone showed up. AND everyone worked. some just didnt perform as well as we may have expected. I am not an apologist. the opposite in fact. We just missed the playoffs thats all! the franchise is in fine shape. I agree that some ppl should have lost their jobs, just not for the collapse in and of itself. Willie should have gone b/c he could not get the best out of his players for half a season for WHATEVER reason. that is his job: to put his players is the best position to succeed. He did that poorly. Omar has made some rough trades and bad judgement calls to put it mildly but unless we know fully the restraints/circumstances, we kinda have to see some more things play out. so he, IMHO gets a reprieve. (NOT A PASS) just a little more time. So, to close, It is never as bad…or good as many may make it all out to be!
u could draw comparisons between the mets f/o and the bush administration. remember what good ol georgie boy said after the valarie plame leak? “we will find and firewhoever leaked her identity” was scooter or karl fired (ha) ? nope scooter was pardoned!!! was riccio or bernazard or ne1 from scouting terminated or demoted? no ididnt think so
btw guys i hear our “old timers day” promotion will be honoring the 78 mets with special honors going to felix millian ( theyre going to give out gloves with holes in em lol
Isn’t 7 years his demand? And isn’t that negotiable? Maybe we can get him for 5 years plus a mutual option for a 6th and 7th. Or something like that.
Any mention of how many of those pitchers brought in a WS Championship before they tanked? To me that will supersede longevity. Kinda like the Piazza deal. They knew the end of the deal was a bust but look what he did in his prime.
If you’re going to be scared off pitchers because of contract demands, you damn well better develop them yourself- or not deal them, away for garbage. Two things the Mets have not been able to do.
So for now, if you want to try to win, pay Johan for the 3-5 ace level years you’re going to get, and suffer through the 3 mediocre years you’ll get, when the market dictates that whatever he’s making will probably not be a back breaker because of the way these things go up.
Remember the Meche contract? All the whining about it? That deal is bacially a bargain now.
“…yet, minaya is being tempted to decimate his farm system, again, to acquire one pitcher: Johan Santana…
…as i have said, at this point, given the pressure to win and the desire to field a popular team for the debut of Citi Field, i would give up this club’s best young pitchers to get santana, who will almost certainly always be better than Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey”,
The nice thing about quoting Cerrone is that the ellipses are already put in place for you.
He is basically saying that trading the farm for Santana is probably a stupid move, given how tenuous the Mets’ farm system is, but Cerrone would do it anyway, for purely political reasons in spite of the fact that even he admits it would hurt the team. One wonders if one should give him credit for being so straightforward about being an unmitigated shill for the Mets’ organization, or, in case it was inadvertent, stand in awe of how thick one must be not to have realized that this was what he was doing.
On the bright side, either alternative–his being honest or really dumb, bodes well for readers, as it means that some revealing things will be blurted out on occasion. And our three pitchers for Santana is not actually crazy, although two and a B-level prospect might get that done. It’s the principle of what he said though:–that he would “decimate” the farm for reasons of “pressure to win” and Citi Field.
I can’t wait to gloat over toomanyuniforms when Milledge has his breakout year, though!
What you don’t understand is that Johan brings stability to our rotation and guarantees us a few more wins.
Minaya’s offer consists of (partly speculation) Gomez, Mulvey, Heilman & Humber. Heilman is in fact older than Santana and is taking up a bullpen spot that could be given to, say, Joe Smith or Eddie Kunz or Steve Register.
The Mets have around 9-10 guys who can bloom into top prospects as soon as next year, and 3 first round draft picks. Even adding Deolis Guerra to their current offer wouldn’t be that bad, and it’d be a lock to nab Santana.
All you mets fans drive me insane. This Blog is nothing but a bunch of Whining A**H****. Willie Sux, Omar Sux, Pelfrey Sux,…Blah..Blah..Blah…Blah…. I can’t take it anymore. Yeah I’m dissapointed about last season, but come on Move on…..don’t live in the past. You’re just like the Skankee fans. Jesus Christ! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m not whining. I’m whining at those who are whining. Which actually means I’m whining.
I think that the team we have now would’ve won 90-91 games last year. But that’s speculation. Landing Johan for the long term gives us more security. And more wins.
I can’t imagine that Johan wouldn’t take $125M for 5 years, with a team option for years 6 and 7. If he is still healthy and productive during those years, then he will still get his money.
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