|
|
|
In yesterday’s Daily News, citing a baseball official, Anthony McCaron wrote that the Mets are pursuing a trade for LHP Johan Santana.
According to the official, “Maybe this week something will heat up. Nothing’s going on right now.”
…well, from what i understand, i wouldn’t say ‘nothing,’ though things are certainly at a slight pause - since, as i pointed out the other day, it’s santana who is in the driver’s seat, not the Twins, Mets, Sox or Yankees…
Nevertheless, in the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo writes…
“Two general managers told me they believe the Mets are the front-runners for Johan Santana. The reason? They need him most…Of course, both GMs also pointed out that the Yankees or Red Sox are only a phone call away from getting it done.”
According to last Friday’s New York Times, Santana’s agent recently told the Twins that his client would like to have this situation settled before spring training.
However, according to a more recent report from the Associated Press, citing the player’s agent, Santana has never made an official request to be traded before pitchers and catchers are set to meet.
…like i wrote on a few occasions last week, as i understand it, santana wants to know who he will be pitching for before pitchers and catchers report, especially if he’ll be switching leagues like he prefers to do - which is why i believe there will be a conclusion to this story before February, i.e., three weeks or so…nevertheless, i don’t think he’s the kind of guy who will make painful demands on the Twins, at least to the extent that it limits their ability to deal…i mean, he’ll certainly look out for his personal best interests, but there is also a sense of loyalty and respect there for the Twins, as well…
…nevertheless, the Mets have been keeping tabs on the santana situation for quite a while now, and, as i have been writing, they’re currently the only major, pro-active team left in the mix…of course, if the Yankees wake up and decide to make Phil Hughes available tomorrow, then the Yankees will slot in as the front runners…that has yet to happen, though…of course, as a Mets fan, every day that passes, to me, feels like another chance for the Yankees to ruin my day…
Not that I dislike being the frontrunner necessarily, but how exactly do we need him most — particularly over the Yankees. How Does Wang, Petite, Mussina and rooks constitute not-need vs. Maine, Ollie, Duke, etc.?
We collapsed pre-postseason instead of in the first round, duh!
And also the rooks are all already better than our proven guys.
For the Stankers, that is actually a potentially disaster of a rotation, that could easily blow out the bull pen big time.
Hopefully October will carry over for Wang, who knows about Petite, Mussina is shot, and then 2 very raw rookies?
And the Mets are the ones that really need him?
I am glad the prevailing thought is that the Yankees and Red Sox, don’t “need” Santana. That arrogance will keep them (hopefully) out of the Johan sweepstakes. I just hope the longer this whole process drags on, that the Mets could get snakebit by some other team.
while I agree that the Yanks kids may not be as great in 2008 as the Yanks seem to think, they have enough back up to get through the season with them.
Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba give them 6 starters, the odd man out can take innings away from the others, and fill in for the veterans when they get hurt.
Also they have Karstens, Chase Wright, and Igawa on the 40 man roster to shuttle back and forth from AAA, and they claimed Heath Phillips off waivers who has gone 26-12 the last two years at AAA. That should be more than enough to pick up the slack. They also have Humberto Sanchez coming back from elbow surgery…
Meanwhile the Mets will have Humber and Jason Vargas backing up thier rotation. All the more case to make the Santana deal.
Yawn…….
I agree with what you say about the Yankees being in need of him. But simply put, as stated in other responses, the Yankees made the playoffs. Without another starter, the Mets are likely in the same boat they were in for 2007 - a playoff miss. With Santana, they transform the rotation into a championship caliber one. It is crucial to make this move in my opinion. I am willing to pay the price for a couple of years if it means the Mets can be perrenial contenders from 2005-2012. I believe that of the two big prospects in Gomez and Martinez, one will truly make it. And assuming one makes it, will they be as good at their position as Santana is at his? Not likely.
+2
Yankees rooks (Hughes, Chamberlain) look a lot more like making it in the bigs than the Mets rooks (Pelfrey , Humber)
Plus Duque generally spends half the season on the treatment table.
I like Hughes stuff, but his numbers for the last 3 months of the season looked suspicously similar to Pelf’s. Same with Chamberlin, but his first 2 months were no more impressive than Joe Smith (but for the Skankee hype machine) — and the guy’s never started a big league game! Not to mention that the Yanks track record for patience with starters (and their educated fan base) usually lasts about 23 pitches.
excellent, EXCELLENT points bobby V
Bottom line is the Yankees prospects were more hyped, so their success no matter how marginal (cough Hughes) will be overblown when compared to a Joe Smith or Mike Pelfrey. If you remember there were a good two starts in a row last year where was outstanding.
Smith lost his countrol in the end of the year - lets hope it was just a fatigue thing and not mental - we don’t need Mark Wholers on this team.
Hughes and Chamberlain are both much better prospects than Pelfrey and Humber. Hughes is the real deal - he will most certainly be the staff ace within a year or 2 and could even be this year. Chamberlain I see more of as the closer in waiting when Mo leaves but I guess they like him starting. Either way I’d trade Pelf, Humber for Hughes in a heart beat
Hughes, if he stays healthy, could be good this year, but rookies his age will still have some growing pains, stamina issues, etc. What happens when he hits August/140 innings (think Maine last year).
Jaba? Who knows? A guy that had to have arm-babying rules last year, and had injuries issues in the past? Can he pitch 5+ innings every day without a problem?
I understand that Pedro might not hold together, but frankly, every pitcher in the league is one pitch away from a blown out elbow.
Joba had arm-babying rules because of Joe Torre not because he was an injury risk. Torre has been known to overuse players so they were protecting Joba from Torre not Joba from Joba. When he’s your only reliable set-up man, there’s no doubt that Torre would have called his number almost every night that they were in a close game.
From a public relations standpoint, I agree. Maybe from a clubhouse presence, grit standpoint, I can buy it. Getting Santana would be a huge difference maker; and we haven’t had a #1 like him in years.
But comparing one teams vs. anothers; The Yanks have twice the salary, new mgr.; Red Sox Worlds Series; Horrible Hank — and think they’re made in the shade with a Sinkerball pitcher who did a Glavine in the post-season; an beyond his primer HGHer, an even further beyond his prime Mussina — and rooks? This should be amusing.
“did a glavine” love it, with your permission I’ll reuse that idiom!
Use it as you wish.
Because Wang, Pettite, Mussina, Hughes, Kennedy (w/ Joba as a possibility) is a lot stronger then Pedro,Maine,O. Perez, El Duque & Pelfry.
Look at it this way, add Santana to the rotation, and it’s a whole new dynamic. Pedro will then be a dominant #2 starter, Maine would be the best #3 in the NL and Perez & Pelfry would be great back of the rotation guys and El Duque can be moved to long relief, so you can savehis arm and maybe he can be available at full strenght in the playoffs as a possible starter.
They also need him the most because of the way last season ended and they need something big and positive going into this season. Santana would absolutly be dominant in the NL, especially in a division that has the Marlins and Nats, add the fact he would be pitching in a pitchers park at Shea this season and Citi next.
The deal needs be be done, but if they can keep Fernando Martinez out of the deal it would be even better, but if it is a deal breaker I would include him.
I’d rather see Pelfrey develop some command and poise pitching out of the bullpen.
I’ll take Duque’s 3-ish ERA until he gets hurt in June for two months.
Right on.
PELFREY IN BULLPEN
me too on this one
Agreed. When healthy, he just might be their best SP (or at elast he was for stretches last year).
Since he is gone after 2008 (please!), they shold get every inning possible out of his arm.
Guess the question is, do you want to milk him along and bubble wrap him for October 9hasn’t worked yet…) or just use him normally and hope he makes it 1/2 way through the year?
If Pelfrey is in AAA working on his stuff and command, then ride Duque hard and call up Pelf when he breaks. Not sure what you do if they are both in the rotation.
Exactly. Many posters in here have just assumed El Duque can be/will be slotted to the pen in the event another starter (Santana or otherwise) is added to the Mets. Given how El Duque usually has his worst inning at the beginning of his start, I don’t see that as being a good idea necessarily.
Whatever happens in the next few weeks, I’d rather see El Duque in the starting rotating (ideally in the 5 spot) in April and Pelfry down in AAA. When El Duque goes on the DL in late May/early June, then Pelfry should be bumped up to the starting rotation.
The “slight pause” in this story is a cause for concern for me. There seemed to be an increasing drum best of attention and comments in the media the end of last week on the Mets moving closer to a deal for Santana….even though Matt kept saying not to get too excited. That said, the Mets are still in it and the Yanks have not publicily changed their mind. From what I gather from Matt now is that if the Yanks decide to include Hughes they may get Santana. I do not think so. I think if the Mets put of the five prospects and agree to a long term contract with Santana , the deal will get done.
I Omar I trust.
I felt the same way.
I do believe the Mets are the front-runners as they are the only ones pro-actively pursuing Santana, but that could all change if Hank decides Hughes could be dealt. If that happens, the Red Sox will slightly increase their offer (I don’t think they’ll include Lester and Ellsbury together, though) and Omar will be forced to include Fernando Martinez. This is what Bill Smith is hoping for but might not get. Let’s all hope the Twins are forced to accept our current offer.
“current offer”
Whatever that may actually be!
Somebody kill me please.
/stabs Agee’s Catch
Hi guys, I’m Bill Murray and this is Groundhog Day.
lol
We’d better get going if we’re going to stay ahead of the weather.
Bill Murray is a god…
This seems to be when the final push is starting (Hitler marching on Moscow? Given the amount of coverage, it seems like it!)
So, if any team was waiting back with their big offer (Yanks or Sox, or Mets too), it is just about time.
But, we should also know soon if their is a mystery team lying in the weeds, waiting to swoop in at the last minute. No idea who. Angels? Dodgers? Someone shocking like the Phils or Braves (Braves maybe..).
As a general rule, if “everyone” in the sports media says something is certain, it probably isn’t. And way too many people have made this a 3 team race
Just please, get this over with soon so we can move on with our lives!
I bet the person enjoying this the most is Beane. You know he is just sitting there waiting for Santana to go so he can swoop in and try to rob a team that missed Johan by selling them Blanton for nearly the same price.
Hey, psychologically the GM already decided to give up a group of players, so maybe they will just send them to Oakland instead (or at least it works like that in baneland).
Good points.
Let’s just hope it doesn’t lead to that.
Joe Blanton is no way, shape or form comparable to a pitcher like Johan Santana.
No, but sometimes desperate GMs do stupid things.
Just look at Isaih!
In fairness to all the desperate/stupid GMs out there, Isaiah is in a class by himself.
Isiah makes Phillips look like Scheurholz (sp?)
FIRE ISIAH!
we should throw in F-Mart and Heilman and ask them to throw in Nathan. THen when they balk, we can say “well now you know how we feel about throwing in a FIFTH “untouchable” prospect, so just lets hammer this out NOW and be done with it so the fellow Metsbloggers can get back to reading nonsense about John Maine’s Dress, and David Wright buying hot dogs from that softball b*tch”
I’ve said it already a few times….I don’t want Santana. My thoughts are he is on the decline. He is not the reigning Cy Young from the AL and his WHIP and ERA have risen pretty steadily in the last 3 years while his win totals have begun to shrink from the guaranteed 19 - 20 to now 15 last year with 13 losses. He also is starting to give up the long ball pretty regularly.
While he is still better than any pitcher on the Mets roster and better than many in the NL…he is no longer the top pitcher in the game. With Haren, Webb, Peavy clearly all his equal and others like Hamels, Cain, Lincecum, etc on the rise….I can see buying and paying him a kings ransom coming back to bite us both in the short and long term.
The problem is the alternatives seem too expensive also in terms of talent. Yet…I think we should spend 2/3rds of the 5 players discussed and get Snell, Lincecum, Cain, or Kazmir and at least we will have pitchers who are rising on the ace charts and are still young enough to grow into their careers.
Santana has peaked already and while still terrific, he is no longer the best pitcher in either league and is about to get the most money ever paid to a pitcher in the history of the game. Seeing as we are trading for the most expensive pitcher in the game who is no longer the best pitcher in the game….only the best in the NL east, I would pass or at least reduce the trade package from its current iteration. Take out Guerra and Fmart, deliver them Gomez, Pelfrey, Humber and Mulvey. If they need a 5th guy….think guys like Niese or Vineyard rather than Guerra and Fmart.
If we drop our top 3 most ready pitcher into the deal…..we will need to trade again or possibly look to snare a FA flier on Colon, Jennings or Lohse to give us some support for the obvious DL issues we will have with Duque and likely Pedro in his siesta
Would we not still have Pelfrey?
My revised trade proposal was…..
“I would pass or at least reduce the trade package from its current iteration. Take out Guerra and Fmart, deliver them Gomez, Pelfrey, Humber and Mulvey. If they need a 5th guy….think guys like Niese or Vineyard rather than Guerra and Fmart.”
Hence…no Pelfrey but we would have Guerra and Fmart who may be the jewels of the system now that some have graduated (Pelfrey…or left via trade…Millz)
take out Pelfrey too and add some 2nd tier prospects.
Gomez, Mulvey are a solid core 2, Humber if they want him I can live with, but the rest needs to exclude Pelf, Guerra and F Mart.
“I’ve said it already a few times….I don’t want Santana. My thoughts are he is on the decline. He is not the reigning Cy Young from the AL and his WHIP and ERA have risen pretty steadily in the last 3 years while his win totals have begun to shrink from the guaranteed 19 - 20 to now 15 last year with 13 losses. He also is starting to give up the long ball pretty regularly.”
First of all, it hasn’t ‘risen steadily’ for 3 straight years. His ERA went down to 2.77 in 2006 when he won the Cy Young for the Second Time. His ERA only went up last year, partially because of an ERA of 4.94 in the month of September, which can pretty easily be explained by the uncertainty around his future. At the same time, his Strikeouts / 9 Innings increased each of the last 3 seasons, indicating that his stuff is still as good as it was during his Cy Young years.
The decrease in wins has almost entirely to do with that he was on a team that was 26th in Runs Scored in the league. You can’t win many games if you’re offense doesn’t score you runs. 11 of his 13 loses were in games where the Twins scored 3 runs or less ( And the other two they managed 4 runs each :rolleyes: ) . Put him with the Mets Offense behind him and that won’t happen.
While he has pitched alot of innings, his arm has not been abused. For his career, he only averages 99 pitches in a game where he has started and has thrown over 120 pitches in a game only twice in his entire career. The reason he throws so many innings is because he is able to work through an inning with a low pitch count, not because his arm has been abused.
In my take, he is very much still a Cy Young caliber pitcher and significantly better then those other names you named and will likely continue to be that guy until his Mid 30’s. Think of this as an opportunity to get Pedro in his prime like Boston did in the Late 90’s.
I worry about this deal. Santana has had a nice career but it is not a slam dunk that he continues at a high level.
Was last yr a fluke? Was the incremental decline in 2006 also a fluke?
Last 4 yrs of WHIP was
.92
.97
1.00
1.07
Last 4 yrs of BA against was
.192
.210
.216
.225
Last 4 yrs in HR given up was
24
22
24
33
ERA
2.61
2.87
2.77
3.33
Question is are we at the top of his career best chart and starting to slide back down or are we just in a periodic dip that will go back to what it was.
this why GMS get paid to make huge decisions like this. This is a $150M decision. THis is a destroy the farm decision. It has to be a slam dunk for us to do it.
Is it? Is it really a slam dunk? I have doubts
When he wins 22 games for the Mets(hopefully we get him) i want to see what you have to say then.
The thing is Lou…I win either way. If he does come here and win 20 with a sub 3 era…I lose the argument this year but win cause my team has its ace.
If he stinks up the joint and puts up a slightly better than Oliver Perez line of 16 wins 9 losses 3.4 era (in a pitchers park and no DH etc) I will have won this argument again.
Regardless of who is right and wrong…It is not a slam dunk no matter what you guys are saying. Picture a Bell Curve (for all you econ guys out there). Starts at the bottom left then climbs to its peak and then starts to slide back to the bottom on the right side of the graph. My fear is we are just on the other side of the peak here with Santana and the numbers clearly show it to be true. Can he turn around the slide and go back the top of the graph…maybe. But you better be damn sure if you are the GM of this team and both dumping the top 5 guys in the system plus spending $120 - $150M over the next 6 - 7 years
Glad I am not making this decision. If I were…I’d pass abd spend 2/3rd of the farm on Snell, Cain, Lincecum, or Kazmir and hope to catch an ace on the climb rather than one on the decline even if it is just a little bit of a decline right now.
“With Haren, Webb, Peavy clearly all his equal” ……..Well, i really wouldn’t want any of them as a Mets player either.GEEZ, And if Johan truly is on decline like you say well then i guess moving to the N.L. in a pitchers park should take care of that problem.
I am going to educate you a little bit about your claims about Johan being past his prime that you some how think.
In the AL he posted a 3.33 era good enough for 7th. Not his best season by any means but still a good season for most. Dan Haren has only one time had a better era and he is one year younger.
His Whip Lead the League it was a 1.07. You must be kidding me if you think that that is not top stuff. I mean sorry that he didnt lead the NL too like he did last year even though they dont have a DH.
He did finish 2nd in Ks this year i mean what a slacker right. Come on use your head.
BAA was a whole 4 points high than his career average must mean that he is showing signs of a second rate pitcher. A bad year for him still good enough for 3 in the AL. Again against a DH.
So i must say that your claims of him being on a steady decline are well just wrong. He is a season away from winning the Cy young. One season. If he does go to the NL we will dominate that league. He did every year in inter-league play oh and i remember the fading star toss a complete game shut out against an all star line up that choked down the strech team last season a four hitter.
Thanks for the education.
You can cherry pick the stats all you want WHIP leading the league etc. He is still a great pitcher. I said the best on our team and still amongst the best in the league. But not the clear runaway best. And it is not because the league is catching up to him. He is declining to the league rather than the league improving their numbers to his level.
Sorry I must have failed your class
One thing about money. Just by the nature of the FA system, you almost always overpay for top talent. That is, they probably had their best years for their old team, and you pay them like they are still the best even when they have slid a bit.
The exceptions are usually guys like A Rod that came up and where great at a very young age (and quickly based on years).
It is just the nature of the system that these guys are often 29-30 by the time they hit FA.
Agreed stick
I understand what you’re saying. But tell me that by the end of the contract he’ll still be the highest paid pitcher. No matter how you look at it he is still better than ANYONE on our staff, and when you have a GLARING NEED to go along with high revenue other teams will make you overpay.If you can honestly tell me ANY single one of these kids will play to the level Johan has i would say don’t make the trade but there is no way anyone can say that. I seriously doubt most would even earn a full time spot on a team with the exception of F-Mart. I have seen too many of our young “prospects” go nowhere when it’s time to put up.
I can say definitively that none of the pitching prospects will have a career like santana has to date. Only a dozen or so in the last 2 decades have had his past 4 seasons (please dont ask me who since I pulled that out of my arse).
But I can say that they may have careers similar to Oliver Perez or John Maine…maybe better. They may also never make it. As to the position players…they can possibly be the next Reyes and Wright or Pujols and Hanley Ramirez or they may not make it either.
It is all an educated guess. But as prospects…they all appear to have potential that if reached could mean…
FMART - 30 hr 120 rbi 1b
Gomez - 25 hr, 100 rbi 50 SB, 120 runs scored RF
Mulvey - #3 type…think John Maine
humber - #4 type - think Steve Trachsel who won 14 games with 10 losses..not the miracle year he won 20 with the cubs.
Pelfrey - #2 type - capable of winning 16 - 18 per year..Think Justin Verlander of 2 yrs ago
Guerra - Possible Ace…..Thiink along the lines of John Smoltz but bigger.
I am not saying this is what they will become. In fact….you can bank on it that they will not all become that. But even if 2 of the 6 do make it to their talked about potential…that is alot to give up.
In the end i hear you on the need. We do need a pitcher. But it is not necessary to dump so much talent for this one great but possibly a bit past his prime talent. Plus if I am right and he is sliding….what the hell will he be 5 years into this deal?
Who is this Johan guy, and where can I find out about him? Why hasn’t anyone mentioned him before?
This is geting aggravating.
Kinda getting tired of these posts. Let me know when he signs somewhere.
Yeah, why keep updating the same things over and over with no new news to report?
Cant….Take…..Much….More….
the first paragraph of this post is HILARIOUS
“In yesterday’s Daily News, citing a baseball official, Anthony McCaron wrote that the Mets are pursuing a trade for LHP Johan Santana”
wow! are we REALLY? This is news to me
Haha I was thinking the exact same thing. I don’t think we need a link and reference to the Daily New for that breaking news.
I was going to post the same thing. I sure hope Anthony McCaron did not spend a lot of time digging up that top secret information.
Why is this even posted??? I love this blog, but why all these posts with nothing new to report?
The Mets are pursuing Johan Santana? Stop the Press!!! Not exactly new info.
When there is some actual NEWS, this could become interesting, but at this point, none of us need to know that one more newspaper is reporting what we’ve already known for weeks.
I have to disagree.
By the time there is “actual” news, this blog will no longer be as interesting regarding this topic because EVERY news source will be reporting and analyzing the trade.
Until “actual” news, Matt is doing exactly what I want him to do…keep the conversation going.
In other news, Abraham Lincoln is still dead.
Could he pitch?
This is taking WAY too long, and to think it may go on for another few weeks is disturbing to say the least.
The Twins need to do something soon otherwise all they get is one more year of Santana and then NOTHING.
So the choise is clear, trade now and get something or get one last year of Santana before he files for free agency.
Santana needs to drop the hammer on these guys, because this is getting ridiculous.
ESPN is reporting Yanks out (again) in quest for Santana:
“For the second time this offseason, the Yankees have pulled their Phil Hughes-centered trade offer for Johan Santana off the table.”
I am not sure if it has been discussed before, but I wonder how Johan will handle playing in New York. I know he has intimated that he wants to play for the Mets, but most guys that are looking for a big contract say things like that.
Johan has pitched in a small market his whole career. He has never faced the daily barrage of media (like in New York or Boston).
Assuming we can make the deal for him, he will be asked to be the savior of the franchise, he will have to face the media every single day and he will have to live up to a historic contract. That’s alot of pressure. See Carlos Beltan.
Johan is a notorious slow starter. How will he handle the boos, if he gets lit up against the Braves (come April)?
I wonder if this has been discussed before.
Contract baggage, yes. But he isn’t being asked to be the savior of the franchise. This isn’t 1993 anymore.
He would be expected to prop up and solidfy the rotation (basically, just pitch like Johan!) And if he can’t handle that, i sure don’t want this trade to go down!
I would argue that he is being asked to be the savior. We are trading top talent and are paying max dollars for him. The fans and media expect him to be.
Plus, after last years collapse, none of us are confident that the current team, can get back to there 2006 form. So we are expecting Johan to bring us back to prominence.
I think you’re right, there would be quite an air of that about him .. Pedro’s spotlight would certainly help deflect it a little, but you know we’ll hang on his every pitch, expecting perfect games and cy youngs, and will be very unforgiving if they don’t come.
most definitely a reason for caution.. I’m not so quick to throw every prospect plus the whole budget at this guy, an unproven commodity in NYC, in a big market, making this trade could easily tarnish Omar’s resume as much as it could bolster it. I still lean towards making it happen, if you can do it w/ 4 guys (5 is insane unless you get a bonus throw in back–young catcher?) along with a 5 years plus options/incentive to 6-7 years. Option years based on innings or wins don’t hurt anyone and I think in this case a creative deal could work quite well..that way if the guy completely bricks in NY, the Mets can move him without too much of an albatross following him around
Marketing, that is why he keeps posting Santana rumors even though there is nothing new to report. Matt puts up Santana, we all log on, he gets his “hits on the website” total way up there, thereby being able to charge more for the advertising. The more hits to the site, the more money he can generate. The more hits to the site, the higher his site goes on the search engine, thereby creating even more hits to the casual fan searching for Mets news.
All of you guys are who are complaining that there is nothing new to report, why do you keep logging on? For the same reason I do, to see if there is something new.
Keep ‘em coming, Matt. I can’t get enough.
to be fair, matt almost always links to another story, which actually spurs the post .. granted they’re driving by advertising hits too, but that’s the game.