Comments on: Buzz: Mets, Front-Runners for Santana? http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/ MetsBlog.com features the latest Mets rumors, player movement, and news circulating around the Internet, as well as Mets related insights and opinions by Matthew Cerrone and his team of guest bloggers. Sun, 08 Nov 2009 14:21:25 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: gowrightgo http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-80070 gowrightgo Mon, 14 Jan 2008 23:06:15 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-80070 I can say definitively that none of the pitching prospects will have a career like santana has to date. Only a dozen or so in the last 2 decades have had his past 4 seasons (please dont ask me who since I pulled that out of my arse). But I can say that they may have careers similar to Oliver Perez or John Maine...maybe better. They may also never make it. As to the position players...they can possibly be the next Reyes and Wright or Pujols and Hanley Ramirez or they may not make it either. It is all an educated guess. But as prospects...they all appear to have potential that if reached could mean... FMART - 30 hr 120 rbi 1b Gomez - 25 hr, 100 rbi 50 SB, 120 runs scored RF Mulvey - #3 type...think John Maine humber - #4 type - think Steve Trachsel who won 14 games with 10 losses..not the miracle year he won 20 with the cubs. Pelfrey - #2 type - capable of winning 16 - 18 per year..Think Justin Verlander of 2 yrs ago Guerra - Possible Ace.....Thiink along the lines of John Smoltz but bigger. I am not saying this is what they will become. In fact....you can bank on it that they will not all become that. But even if 2 of the 6 do make it to their talked about potential...that is alot to give up. In the end i hear you on the need. We do need a pitcher. But it is not necessary to dump so much talent for this one great but possibly a bit past his prime talent. Plus if I am right and he is sliding....what the hell will he be 5 years into this deal? I can say definitively that none of the pitching prospects will have a career like santana has to date. Only a dozen or so in the last 2 decades have had his past 4 seasons (please dont ask me who since I pulled that out of my arse).

But I can say that they may have careers similar to Oliver Perez or John Maine…maybe better. They may also never make it. As to the position players…they can possibly be the next Reyes and Wright or Pujols and Hanley Ramirez or they may not make it either.

It is all an educated guess. But as prospects…they all appear to have potential that if reached could mean…

FMART – 30 hr 120 rbi 1b
Gomez – 25 hr, 100 rbi 50 SB, 120 runs scored RF
Mulvey – #3 type…think John Maine
humber – #4 type – think Steve Trachsel who won 14 games with 10 losses..not the miracle year he won 20 with the cubs.
Pelfrey – #2 type – capable of winning 16 – 18 per year..Think Justin Verlander of 2 yrs ago
Guerra – Possible Ace…..Thiink along the lines of John Smoltz but bigger.

I am not saying this is what they will become. In fact….you can bank on it that they will not all become that. But even if 2 of the 6 do make it to their talked about potential…that is alot to give up.

In the end i hear you on the need. We do need a pitcher. But it is not necessary to dump so much talent for this one great but possibly a bit past his prime talent. Plus if I am right and he is sliding….what the hell will he be 5 years into this deal?

]]> By: Big Lou http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-80044 Big Lou Mon, 14 Jan 2008 21:20:38 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-80044 I understand what you're saying. But tell me that by the end of the contract he'll still be the highest paid pitcher. No matter how you look at it he is still better than ANYONE on our staff, and when you have a GLARING NEED to go along with high revenue other teams will make you overpay.If you can honestly tell me ANY single one of these kids will play to the level Johan has i would say don't make the trade but there is no way anyone can say that. I seriously doubt most would even earn a full time spot on a team with the exception of F-Mart. I have seen too many of our young "prospects" go nowhere when it's time to put up. I understand what you’re saying. But tell me that by the end of the contract he’ll still be the highest paid pitcher. No matter how you look at it he is still better than ANYONE on our staff, and when you have a GLARING NEED to go along with high revenue other teams will make you overpay.If you can honestly tell me ANY single one of these kids will play to the level Johan has i would say don’t make the trade but there is no way anyone can say that. I seriously doubt most would even earn a full time spot on a team with the exception of F-Mart. I have seen too many of our young “prospects” go nowhere when it’s time to put up.

]]> By: gowrightgo http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-79907 gowrightgo Mon, 14 Jan 2008 18:12:16 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-79907 Agreed stick Agreed stick

]]> By: gowrightgo http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-79902 gowrightgo Mon, 14 Jan 2008 18:10:09 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-79902 Thanks for the education. You can cherry pick the stats all you want WHIP leading the league etc. He is still a great pitcher. I said the best on our team and still amongst the best in the league. But not the clear runaway best. And it is not because the league is catching up to him. He is declining to the league rather than the league improving their numbers to his level. Sorry I must have failed your class Thanks for the education.

You can cherry pick the stats all you want WHIP leading the league etc. He is still a great pitcher. I said the best on our team and still amongst the best in the league. But not the clear runaway best. And it is not because the league is catching up to him. He is declining to the league rather than the league improving their numbers to his level.

Sorry I must have failed your class

]]> By: gowrightgo http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-79899 gowrightgo Mon, 14 Jan 2008 18:07:18 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-79899 The thing is Lou...I win either way. If he does come here and win 20 with a sub 3 era...I lose the argument this year but win cause my team has its ace. If he stinks up the joint and puts up a slightly better than Oliver Perez line of 16 wins 9 losses 3.4 era (in a pitchers park and no DH etc) I will have won this argument again. Regardless of who is right and wrong...It is not a slam dunk no matter what you guys are saying. Picture a Bell Curve (for all you econ guys out there). Starts at the bottom left then climbs to its peak and then starts to slide back to the bottom on the right side of the graph. My fear is we are just on the other side of the peak here with Santana and the numbers clearly show it to be true. Can he turn around the slide and go back the top of the graph...maybe. But you better be damn sure if you are the GM of this team and both dumping the top 5 guys in the system plus spending $120 - $150M over the next 6 - 7 years Glad I am not making this decision. If I were...I'd pass abd spend 2/3rd of the farm on Snell, Cain, Lincecum, or Kazmir and hope to catch an ace on the climb rather than one on the decline even if it is just a little bit of a decline right now. The thing is Lou…I win either way. If he does come here and win 20 with a sub 3 era…I lose the argument this year but win cause my team has its ace.

If he stinks up the joint and puts up a slightly better than Oliver Perez line of 16 wins 9 losses 3.4 era (in a pitchers park and no DH etc) I will have won this argument again.

Regardless of who is right and wrong…It is not a slam dunk no matter what you guys are saying. Picture a Bell Curve (for all you econ guys out there). Starts at the bottom left then climbs to its peak and then starts to slide back to the bottom on the right side of the graph. My fear is we are just on the other side of the peak here with Santana and the numbers clearly show it to be true. Can he turn around the slide and go back the top of the graph…maybe. But you better be damn sure if you are the GM of this team and both dumping the top 5 guys in the system plus spending $120 – $150M over the next 6 – 7 years

Glad I am not making this decision. If I were…I’d pass abd spend 2/3rd of the farm on Snell, Cain, Lincecum, or Kazmir and hope to catch an ace on the climb rather than one on the decline even if it is just a little bit of a decline right now.

]]> By: m00kie http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-79895 m00kie Mon, 14 Jan 2008 18:03:13 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-79895 to be fair, matt almost always links to another story, which actually spurs the post .. granted they're driving by advertising hits too, but that's the game. to be fair, matt almost always links to another story, which actually spurs the post .. granted they’re driving by advertising hits too, but that’s the game.

]]> By: m00kie http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-79892 m00kie Mon, 14 Jan 2008 18:01:23 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-79892 I think you're right, there would be quite an air of that about him .. Pedro's spotlight would certainly help deflect it a little, but you know we'll hang on his every pitch, expecting perfect games and cy youngs, and will be very unforgiving if they don't come. I think you’re right, there would be quite an air of that about him .. Pedro’s spotlight would certainly help deflect it a little, but you know we’ll hang on his every pitch, expecting perfect games and cy youngs, and will be very unforgiving if they don’t come.

]]> By: m00kie http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-79890 m00kie Mon, 14 Jan 2008 17:59:51 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-79890 most definitely a reason for caution.. I'm not so quick to throw every prospect plus the whole budget at this guy, an unproven commodity in NYC, in a big market, making this trade could easily tarnish Omar's resume as much as it could bolster it. I still lean towards making it happen, if you can do it w/ 4 guys (5 is insane unless you get a bonus throw in back--young catcher?) along with a 5 years plus options/incentive to 6-7 years. Option years based on innings or wins don't hurt anyone and I think in this case a creative deal could work quite well..that way if the guy completely bricks in NY, the Mets can move him without too much of an albatross following him around most definitely a reason for caution.. I’m not so quick to throw every prospect plus the whole budget at this guy, an unproven commodity in NYC, in a big market, making this trade could easily tarnish Omar’s resume as much as it could bolster it. I still lean towards making it happen, if you can do it w/ 4 guys (5 is insane unless you get a bonus throw in back–young catcher?) along with a 5 years plus options/incentive to 6-7 years. Option years based on innings or wins don’t hurt anyone and I think in this case a creative deal could work quite well..that way if the guy completely bricks in NY, the Mets can move him without too much of an albatross following him around

]]> By: Cousinjoey http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-79889 Cousinjoey Mon, 14 Jan 2008 17:59:25 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-79889 I would argue that he is being asked to be the savior. We are trading top talent and are paying max dollars for him. The fans and media expect him to be. Plus, after last years collapse, none of us are confident that the current team, can get back to there 2006 form. So we are expecting Johan to bring us back to prominence. I would argue that he is being asked to be the savior. We are trading top talent and are paying max dollars for him. The fans and media expect him to be.

Plus, after last years collapse, none of us are confident that the current team, can get back to there 2006 form. So we are expecting Johan to bring us back to prominence.

]]> By: stickguy http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-johan-santana/#comment-79886 stickguy Mon, 14 Jan 2008 17:53:57 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/01/14/buzz-mets-front-runners-for-santana/#comment-79886 Contract baggage, yes. But he isn't being asked to be the savior of the franchise. This isn't 1993 anymore. He would be expected to prop up and solidfy the rotation (basically, just pitch like Johan!) And if he can't handle that, i sure don't want this trade to go down! Contract baggage, yes. But he isn’t being asked to be the savior of the franchise. This isn’t 1993 anymore.

He would be expected to prop up and solidfy the rotation (basically, just pitch like Johan!) And if he can’t handle that, i sure don’t want this trade to go down!

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