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Earlier this week, in a report for the Boston Herald, Michael Silverman talked with Jim Callis and John Manuel from Baseball America about a variety of the prospects being mentioned in rumored deals for Johan Santana.
Regarding the Mets rumored five-player offer, which could include 19–year-old OF Fernando Martinez, Manuel said…
“(Martinez’s) offensive potential is significant.
(He’s) a special offensive player…he can do anything he wants offensively.”
However, yesterday, in a chat for ESPN.com, Callis was questioned by a reader as though he made the statement, not Manuel. Callis responded by saying…
“Wait a minute…I never said Martinez can do anything he wants offensively. In that article in the Boston Herald, I said the Mets’ offer potential could be the best — if it includes Martinez, Guerra and Gomez AND they all reach their potential. That’s a big IF, because there’s a significant gap between their present abilities and their ceilings. If someone wanted to gamble, that could be a big payoff. But you also could be left holding the bag if only one of those guys pans out as hoped. The problem with the Mets’ packages is that Humber and Pelfrey have diminished value, Mulvey is interesting but not a frontline pitcher and their best players lack a lot of polish because they’re so young.”
…for the exact reasons that callis believes the Twins should be hesitant, are the exact reasons why i would pull the trigger…
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Yeah I was the guy that asked Jim the quesion matt.. and I did check Metsblog for the quote not the actual article..
The original Metsblog post credits Callis with both quotes, while the article only the quote about the deal maybe being the best if the Twins are willing to gamble..
So I guess I should of checked the article before the question.. I just assume you guys are perfect :-)
Hope it didn’t cause you any problems…and certainly my apologieis if it did…
Does anyone realize how good this Santana thing, and especially the fact that it is dragging on forever is for Cerrone and this blog?
If say Santana was traded at the Winter meeting, even to the Mets, this site would have been nuts for the next week or so, celebrating, prognosticating, and the occasional complaining from those who inexplicably dont want to make the trade. Following that week, the Mets would really not have any more moves (of any significance to make) and I would imagine the site would go into hibernation until at least Spring Training. The way things have worked out however, really nothing has happened, but there have probably been over 100 posts about Santana, and thousands of replies and hits. At this point, what ever happens with Santana, the site will be on fire (either with celebration or despair) right up until Spring Training, and then it will continue to be hot right through the season.
So Matt, I know you are a true Met fan and like most of us want this deal to just get done already, but you have to realize how great it is for you that the deal has not gotten done……..yet.
I’m on the “keep the kids” band wagon. I think we’re hemmoraging the future by making a five for one trade
I am also against 5 for 1 at this point.
5 FOR 1 IS STEEP but if it is the only way to get this deal done i would have to go for it – Johan is “THAT GUY” that difference maker guy that doesnt come along often, and he fills the biggest need we have in order to put a chokehold on the NL East once again. I would like to see Omar try and substitute FMart for Gomez before letting them both go…but like i said this is a deal that needs to be closed upon by any means neccessary…PLUS we have 3 1st round picks in this years amature player draft which can instantly replensih the farm system with 18 year old players w/ high ceilings such as FMART….but I’m beginning to be pretty confidant in our chances of obtaining Santana – the dust seems to be settling and it looks as if we are in the forefront of the Santana competition…GET IT DONE
JOHAN
PEDRO
MAINE
PEREZ
DUQUE
NL EAST CHAMPS
Sign me up in 1 second for the 4 for 1 deal that does not include Martinez…
Actually, I wouldnt even have a problem with a 5 for 1 as long as F-Mart and Gomez weren’t both in the deal….so maybe a Carp or a Neise in one of their places and make it a 5 for 1…and I would be cool with it…
Basically…I think the Mets can do whatever it takes as long as they keep 1 of Gomez AND F-Mart…
Right. a 5 for 1 deal isn’t unheard of, the problem is when it includes your 5 best prospects.
usually there is 1 or 2 high end guys, and some combo of mid level or young but interesting semi-prospects filling out the deal.
Big difference if the 5 is Gomez, Mulvey, Humber, + 2 guys from farther down the list. That is, not Guerra and martinez.
Sign me up in 1 second for the 4 for 1 deal that does not include Martinez…
Of course you would. We would trade you Johan if you gave us Wright, Guerra, and Martinez in maybe, oh, half a second. :-)
Right, and Santana could blow out his arm. We’ve been over this. I think a lot of people are mistaking the Santana “derby” for a game — a contest between teams. We do not “win” if we get Santana and the Yankees don’t. We trade five minor leaguers, including two top-tier, AA-level prospects and give up $150M, for an ace pitcher who has been special, but had problems late last year, and the Yankees don’t. Time will tell.
At this point, if they want, essentially, our top five prospects, I tell the Twins to screw off and invest heavily in the farm system. Build a consistent winner, and stop consistenty taking two steps forward and three back. IF they come back and allow us to pull F-Mart, Gomez, or Guerra out of the deal, revisit it, but don’t give up all three.
I agree. With some talent in the minors and three top picks this year, we could have a pretty good farm soon. People with must-win-now attitudes too often find themselves not winning. The problem with mortgaging the farm for Santana is we lose Pedro and El Duque next year — two more arms to find. We lose Delgado. We lose Alou. Hopefully you could fill a gomez or f-mart in Alou’s place, a Guerra or Mulvey could take an El Duque spot, and then you have kids left over for other pitchers and a 1st basemen. If we trade the farm now, Santana takes Pedro’s spot, but we have all these other holes we’d have to fill in with free agents because there’d be nobody left to trade!
Two steps forward, three steps back is precisely what happens when you trade the farm!
I guess you don’t figure Pelfrey is not in the deal. You don’t figure free agency which is how we got F-Mart to begin with. You also don’t figure 3 first round draft picks either.
You’re hinging our future on these kids, Tidewater. The imminent holes you speak of are the same things that make us a WIN-NOW team. What happens to the overall value of our club when Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, Moises Alou, Oliver Perez, Aaron Heilman, etc all leave for FA or retire? Even IF all those kids reach their potential (highly unlikely) they’re not going to be able to pick up the slack of those departing.
You speak of holes in the coming future. Glaring holes, I agree. Which, is why so many of us Mets fans are arguing FOR Santana. Do you really trust these kids to step up in time to fill these holes? Do you think Pelfrey will have solved all of his problems by the time El Duque walks? Will Mulvey, who is slated to be a MIDDLE of the rotation starter, vastly exceed his potential to take over for Pedro? Will Guerra, if and when he reaches the Majors, be a Fausto Carmona or an Alay Soler?
“?” – symbolic annecdote for “question mark.” There’s alot of them in your future plans…
That’s assuming these kids develop. I’m against the trade, but the more I think about it, the more I realize it’s very rare that our farm system produces top talent. Unless Omar can convince the Wilpons to invest seriously in the farm system, not just in paying above the slot but in actually developing players, we might as well do this trade, because none of these guys will ever max out their potential.
Invest in the farm system?!?! That’s crazy talk. You can’t build a team like that! You have to make impulsive trades and overpay for free agents because WIN NOW WIN NOW WIN NOW. I COULD GET HIT BY A BUS TOMORROW AND STILL NO CHAMPIONSHIP!!! GET IT DONE OMAR!
And when those prospects turn into the 2009 version of generation K and Santana goes on to win his 5th cy young you’ll be the first one saying ‘why didn’t we get Santana, cheap Mets” LET’S GO GET HIM ALREADY!!!!!
Go get Johan.. the odds all3 of those guy reach their ceilings are slim to none..
And if one does, it’s not like we’re getting nothing back.. we’re getting the best pitcher in the game today…
Can you imagine Johan and Ollie.. two lefties in the same rotation each of which will probably top 200Ks next year?
This is a no brainer, go get him Omar.. otherwise all your talk about win now is pure BS, and when we’er stuck middle of the pack in our own division, you have no one to blame but yourself
Sign Wells.
Pedro
Ollie
Maine
Wells
ElDuque
They get an extra breath early in the season when we have off days. Bring up Pelfrey & Humber up in June when they need to shut down for a while.
I guarantee 92 wins with this approach. Pedro, Wells & El Duque in a short series is pretty formidable.
Sign David Wells?
Sign ANOTEHR guy in his 40s who can’t do a sit up, to go along with two guys (El Duque and Pedro) who haven’t pithced 200 innings in a single season in years?
That is your answer?
I wish it would happen so I could take your bet.. the only thing singing david wells gets this team is 92 less donuts in the clubhouse.. certainly not 92 wins…
Wells isn’t exactly Lima time. He’ll make 20-25 starts, as will ElDuque, allowing Pelfrey & Humber to cut teeth on 10-12 starts a piece.
Wells is one guy can save your bullpen when he pitches. He’s extremely economical.
He was cut by 3 different teams last year, and is still a FA.. despite the fact everyone except Kyle Loshe has signed.. if he had ANYTHING left in the tank, other then a chili dawg.. he’d be on a roster by now…
wow terrible terrible idea to sign wells. worst solution to date.
I pray to God you’re not on some fast track for sports management of ANY kind…
Hold the barn door for a sec — if we don’t trade for Santana, we keep Mulvey — maybe a 3 or 4 innings eater. We keep Guerra — chance to be special. Martinez — chance to be special. Gomez — chance to be special. I’d imagine we can just as easily expect an all-star OF and two solid starters as we can a healthy Santana who pitches well for more than two or three years. And, with the $150M, we can get a Tex, or another FA. Granted, starters are being locked up, but never underestimate the drive for FA gold. Additionally, we do not need an “ace” if we have a solid rotation top-down, like the White Sox in ‘05, etc.
Horror story for Santana — look at Bartolo Colon. The last time he was healthy, he won a Cy Young. Now, he’s in the winter leagues strugging to maintain velocity. Obviously, Santana is a very different pitcher, but I think the cautionary tale is worth remembering. It’s not a sure thing vs. a chance — it’s two competing probabilities.
The Sox Rotation in 05 was outstanding… they had what 3 guys in the top of the Cy Young voting that year
Buhrerle and Cotnreas has career years.. Garcia hasn’t been the same since.. and they had their own version of k-rod when Jenks finally made it to the majors…
And what is this all star OF you speak of? F-mart is 19, Gomez could probably play this year, but as BA puts it “hitting will be his last tool to develop”
So yeah.. maybe 3 years from now we could have one or two all stars in the Outfield.. but let’s not think we can complete this year with this group…
I don’t care about “this year” if it means going through this same scramble every year for the next ten. The Pedro signing was supposed to give us a consistent ace. Instead, it’s justified now solely on “credibility” grounds, and here we are again, scrambling for an “ace.” Say we trade for Santana and are behind near the deadline? Scrape another layer off to get some deadline help? Are you that confident tha Santana= surefire trip to the postseason? I’m not. The Zito phenomenon is real.
Now, in the past, I’ve made the case FOR Santana, so I know the argument. I just think that the probabilities begin to speak against the trade when you’re talking about all three of our top tier prospects in addition to the albatross contract.
SANTANA AND ZITO ARE NOT ON THE SAME LEVEL GUY. YOU HAVE THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL AND THEN YOU HAVE A GUY WHO MAYBE MAKES IT IN THE TOP 20 BUT PROBABLY NOT EVEN THAT.
HEY CAPSLOCK GUY, would you have said that after Zito won the Cy Young? WOULD YOU?!?!!?
ZITO HASNT HAD AN ERA UNDER 3.5 SINCE 03 GUY…AND AN ERA IN THE MID 4′S WITH A JUMP TO THE NL WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO HELP HIS ERA – HIS CY YOUNG YEAR WAS A WHILE AGO NOW AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR ME LATLEY GAME – - MO VAUGHN WON AN MVP WAS THAT A GOOD SIGNING – PLAYED GREATLY BY OMAR TO LAY OF ZITO AND HIS HUGE CONTRACT – BUT ZITO IS THE TRUTH
MEANT JOHAN IS THE TRUTH
So was Pat Hentgen at one point. The whole point is that it’s not a sure thing. Signign Zito right after his Cy Young season would have acquired — as you point out — a lot of medicority. But, at the time, I’m sure he was considered “the truth.” Sorry, but an all caps “JOHAN IS THE TRUTH” is not going to sway anyone, “guy.”
WELL HOWEVER YOU WOULD LIKE TO REFER TO THE BEST PICHER IN BASEBALL GO AHEAD – I CHOSE TO GO W/ THE TRUTH – I DONT KNOW ABOUT YOU BUT I DONT WANT TO SIT THRU ANOTHER 162 GAME SEASON SO WAIT FOR ‘09 AGAIN – AND W/O JOHAN ADDED TO THE ROTATION IM SKEPTICAL THAT A PEDRO, MAINE, PEREZ, DUQUE, PELFREY ROTATION COULD GET IT DONE – AND ADDING COLON WOULD NOT PUSH US OVER THE TOP…I WAS UNDER THE IMPRESSION WE WERE ON THE SAME SIDE “GUY” U WANNA WIN OR WHAT????
I want to win now and in the future. I think it’s a close call depending on the deal, but the 5 for 1 is too much. If the Mets give up F-Mart, they should make a play to keep Gomez, at least, and maybe Guerra, too. I’m just pointing out that even the best pitchers’ success can be fleeting. Santana looks like he has good mechanics and a fluid motion, but who knows? Even he could fall off from his peak performance rapidly. He’s more of a guarantee than any prospect, of course, but as you start adding prospect after prospect to one side of the deal, the balance starts to tip. I think the 5 + $150M for 1 isn’t favorable for the Mets anymore. Depending on the 4+1, it’s closer to balanced.
Talking a 4 for 1 trade for Santana is a moot point. The Sox and the Skanks both also have 4 player trades offered for the guy and both packages include major league ready players.
The odds of TWO of these kids reaching/exceeding their potential is astronomical.
People need to realize the long odds involved when talking in regards to prospects. 70% of them DON’T EVEN REACH THE MAJORS.
70% of prospects as talented as F-Mart? I have to disagree. There is NO WAY he doesn’t at least make a run at the Majors unless he gets hurt.
This is the exact thoughts when Ricky Ledee and Eric Duncan were coming up in the Minors (two players I COULD see Martinez end up being).
We can all run through the horror stories. Just remember that there are horror stories about inking pitchers to long term deals, too. It’s a roll of the dice no matter what.
For 25 Million, I’ll enter the Tex sweepstakes
What and give up our first round pick? That pick’s gonna be special.. could be a AA prospect… no way.. just play the kids
Sarcasm…frowned upon by the Metsblog police
I’m with Matt on this. Omar should do the deal instead of waiting around three years to see if these guys are the real deal. The team is a win now team and Santana can put them over the top. I thought this deal and the trade was lost a few days ago. I hope Omar pulls the trigger this time. 5 for 1…..DO IT!
Gomez & Humber will see Shea again in 2008.
Mulvey will get a September nod
FMart in 2009
Guerra? No clue.
3 years? I think that is a gross overestimation
Making the ML team, and being a solid regular, let alone an all start will take some time.. so 3 years for those guys to contribute on a playoff caliber team is certainly not unreasonable
tommy, fmart won’t see the majors until 2010 Best Case
with my eyes, saw this kid struggle BEFORE his injuries.
He hit 270 on athletic ability alone. He’s no baseball player yet. Unlike Gomez he doesn’t have notable speed.
Doesn’t have a large frame,is about 5′11/6′ and 180.
He’s got a LONG way to go before he’s cashing an MLB
check. I Like Gomez but watching both in the Minors
and at Shea, he keeps making me think–roberto kelly.
tonylett
fmart is 6′1″ and 195lbs
and he’s only 18!!!!!!
add another inch and 10-15 lbs of muscle and you have a good build. I advise everyone to check out pictures of fmart online. HIS FOREARMS ARE ALREADY BIGGER THAN WRIGHT’S! This kid will mash and be our starting 1B in 2009
mark your calenders
This is the right kind of debate. We need info on exactly what we think we have with F-Mart. Is he really special, or is he Richard Hidalgo? Obviously you can only get to a certain level of certainty, but what I hear makes it sound as if he has a great frame and held his own at AA against older competition at age 18, when most players are struggling to learn the art of the wooden bat in short season rookie ball. That’s great natural talent that adapted to increased competition. That bodes well.
So what happens if we get Santana and we don’t win a championship, are we still in win now mode in 09?
I wouldn’t trade five for one, because its also a gamble that Santana could get hurt in the first or second year and isn’t the same pitcher for the rest of his career. I rather keep the five and figure that either FMart. Gomez or Guerra will become a stud and one of the other two will be a very good player. Just hope that Santana doesn’t get trade and sign him next winter, because I really don’t think that the yankees and red sox wants him that badly anyway.
Obviously, that would be optimal for all parties, involved EXCEPT the Twins (who currently control Santana). Bill Smith would get crucified should the Twins flop this season and they end up with 2 draft picks that are even more uncertain than the ones we’re proposing in a trade (Gomez, Guerra, Humber and Mulvey).
Each new Santana post brings us closer and closer to where we all were at the conclusion of last season…nowhere.
It has been hashed literally 100 times since the conclusion of the season. 5 for 1, 4 for 1, do it if no gomez or no Guera or no Fmart. Do it with all 5 in there they will be nothing anyway. Its not Kazmir all over again. We are a win now team. We are not a win now team…..
Can we continue to do this for another 4 weeks until pitchers and catchers report???
I guess we have no choice since we are all die hard in the wool fans here. It would be nice to end this already however…Up or down on the move…
I’d like to conclude this chapter of the offseason and either get him and know he is here or simply move on to our plan b if there is one (other than play the kids). 2.5 months of this is enough already. The GM in Minn needs to decide this and get the rest of baseball back to business
the 2009 METS are an interesting quesiton right?
We have the following guys locked up through 2009 from this roster…
CF – Beltran
RF – Church
2b – Castillo, Gotay
SS – Reyes
3b – Wright
Ca – Schneider and Castro
SP – Maine
SP – Pelfrey
RP – Wagner
RP – Feliciano
RP – Heilman
RP – Sanchez
RP – Sosa
RP – Wise
I think we will need a LF and a 1b of serious merit to replace the 150 – 170 RBI we will get out of alou and Delgado.
Tex is a good start. ANy heads up on the LF situation on the FA front in 2009?
Someone post the list of FA outfielders that was longer then Britney Spear’s STD list…
Corner OFs can always be had….
If we’re looking future, I’d rather look to 2010.
In a couple of years Beltran will need to move to a corner; Gomez will take over CF then. F-Mart will stay in the OF only if the Mets dont get a stud 1B (like Tex). How does this lineup look 1-6, for 2010:
SS – Reyes
CF – Gomez
3B – Wright
1B – Tex
LF – Beltran
RF – F Mart
2B – Castillo
C – Tomorrow
SP: Perez – Maine – Guerra – Mulvey – Innings Eater.
BP: Sanchez – Kunz – Smith – Feliciano – 3 veterans
looks pretty interesting…
Love the “Who’s on first” reference !
Looks horrible
CF – Gomez (?)
RF – F-Mart (???)
SP – Guerra (????)
SP – Mulvey (??)
RP – Kunz (???)
I love how people think each and every prospect we have are DESTINED to be Major League All-Stars.
Jason Bay has been rumored of being shopped, and also if Holliday is locked up long term in Colordo he’d look nice in blue and orange –
SIDENOTE –
I would like to see Omar finnaly get his wish and invite Slammy Sosa to spring training – If he works out it adds some pop off the bench and a possible platoon in rightfield with Church against lefties.
Adding Johan gives us a nice starting 5, but we know at least one of Pedro or El Dq will be out for a good while. Can either be counted on for 170 IP, I doubt it…. It is more realistic to expect 120 out of each. Both may need to replaced next year, unless Pedro converts to the Julio Franco longevity diet. We will also need to replace Moises next year. Since we wont have any notable minor leaguers to bring up, what we will do, dole out $100 million to 3 crappy FA’s ? Do we hope that Endy and Angel are suddenly every day corner slugging OFr’s ? What if Johan becomes Fwankie V. the 2nd, giving us 2 good years and a sudden I cant pitch anymore ? You have to include young affordable talent to make the payroll workable. The Yankees had their run thanks to several home grown pieces; most of the expensive FA additions bombed; but with salaries continuing upward, contracts like Hampton, Neagle, Brown, Johnson, Pavano will be more and more paralyzing to a franchise.
Wait!, we’re trying to trade for Johan Santana of the Twins??
When did he become available?, he’s good,right?
We should be glad Pelfrey was awful last year or they would want him. Pull the trigger and be glad Pelfrey is not included. I mean wwe have Beltran for four more years. No place to put F-mart, centerfielders don’t share. I respect Mets for trying to lowball and I can waint a few more weeks but if Santana does not become a Met I will call for a riot.
I’ve heard Carlos Santana is lined up for International week.
Here is the trade
Twins get: Gomez, Martinez, Heilman, Mulvey, Smith, B prospect like Neise.
Mets get: Santana, Cuddyer, Rincon
Twins get both OF and and quality pitching for the rotation and pen.
Mets get Santana, Cuddyer (who can play RF, 1B, 2B, and 3B and is RH that’s a perfect fit) and Rincon a reliever that had a terrible year last year but was under 2.70 for the 2 years before.
If the Twins want Gomez and Martinez then they have to give back. They would have no need for the 2 players that we are taking but they would fill huge roles for us.
now that deal I do.
What is going on, we have been agreeing with each other way too much lately. Is this the “real stickguy”.
Sounds good, but the twins wouldn’t get a ML ready OFer to replace Cuddy. Plus, they already have a Rookie in Young playing OF.
Would be nice though, OF of Beltran, Alou, Cuddyer, Church, and Pagan.
I thought of that too but they already have Monroe signed in CF and Kubel who they just resigned is good enough for them. I would expect Gomez to be up for them early in the year, especially if they are not contending.
Twins get: Gomez, Martinez, Heilman, Mulvey, Smith, B prospect like Neise.
Mets get: Santana, Cuddyer, Rincon
This might come as a shock, but the chances of F Mart becoming more than Cuddyer are slim. The Twins are not going to put a non-competitve team on the field if they can help it. They are moving into a new stadium, and they will ensure the team is very competitive from here on. Right now, they can’t afford to lose fans; they need to keep the momentum of the new stadium going.
Trading Santana would hurt that enough, they aren’t going to trade another media darling (here).
remember Rincon was juicing when he put up those great numbers from the pen….
Dose of reality here – I think it might be better to let Santana become a FA and sign him then give up 4 to 5 guys who can help big time within two years. I really think the Mets are just being used here – and face it – letting the media insert them into rumors just to appease the fan base.
Oy. I work in Philly, and some guy in my office just returned from a Phillies Season Ticket Holder meet and greet with Pat Gillick. Somebody asked him if he was worried about the Mets getting Santana, and he said “Don’t worry, they are not getting him.”
Agreed. Francessa yesterday gave the Mets a 10% chance of landing Santana. 15 % tops. We do not have the horses. Period. End of story.
Can we please move on?
yeah!, and he knows!?, he’s “the sports doctor”!
SO, we move on!
Here’s your dose of reality. Delgado and Moises are under contract for one year. Pedro and El Duque are getting older. Pont is team is built for now. If Santanta goes FA we’d have to pay premium IF got him. Also we lose a good draft picks for signing an FA so it hurts farm system either way. Second dose of reality: baseball is all about pitching do I need to say more. Also screw Francessa and Gillick, nothing agaist them but thier opinion matters about 0% on this issue. I am absolutly drooling to get this guy. He is worth at least two Manny Ramierezes. 2 CY youngs and under thirty and we keep Reyes and Wright, this is a steal. we are already drove the price down by keeping Reyes and
Wright. Don’t be greedy.
lulz
huston street received $3.3 in arbitration from the a’s. perhaps that’s starting to push their budget in their rebuilding. he’d be a nice upgrade in the bullpen. still like nathan from the twins too.
It comes down to this:
Would you trade Guerra, Gomez, and Fmart for Johan?
I do not care about Mulvey, Humber, or Gomez.
Mulvey and Humber are no better than #5 starters. Maybe Mulvey a #4. Humber is garbage.
Gomez I would love to send off right now because of his high value. He is young but he doesnt impress me much. He doesnt excite me like Reyes or Wright did when they were coming up.
It comes down to giving up both your legit prospects for Johan.
I am torn on this. I am willing to give up Guerra in the deal because although he is a stud prospect, he is still far away. Plus we really wouldnt need him because we would have Johan, Maine, Olly,and Pelfrey for the next 4+ yrs
As for Fmart. It would really be hard for me to include him in the trade. I see him as our future first basemen. Which is going to be a glaring need in a yr or 2. OF are easily obtainaible but 1b arent. Not big time ones atleast.
So I dont think I would do it if I had to give him up. Its hard to say but I just dont think i can pull the trigger on that one. Although I dont like Gomez, if Minn take Gomez out of the deal and include both Guerra and Fmart then I might pull the trigger. Only because it would be some sort of consolation.
Omar has a tough choice but he has to find a way to land Johan. We need an ace
So a power 1B is just as important as an ace starter? The answer is no, even if the 1B guy was proven. This proven ace for 18 year old. Stupid people please stop commenting.
for arguments sake. Lets say Fmart and Guerra turn out to be:
Nick Markakis and lets say a Carmona type
Would you trade those 2 for Johan?
Now that Im thinking about it. If it came down to Fmart I prob would pull the trigger
I think a lot of people are thinking that Santana = World Series, which is not the case with the Mets (not that it is for the Yankees, either). What if they give up 4/5 guys, sign him for $18 million a year and it only gets you 1 division title over the next 3 years? Is it worth it? I say it’s not, that just as effective pieces can he had for less without giving up the farm, that’s all.
Yes it is!–Atleast having the best pitcher in baseball we’ll
have a chance to compete for a championship during the next 3 years.
please name just as effective pieces.
also there is nothing that “= World Series” – not an acceptable debate tool.
The Yankees think offense wins World Series. The last 7 years has made them realize you have to have pitching to advance in the playoffs. In addition, they have a MUCH harder league to go through to even reach the Series. (Bos, Det, Cle, Ana)
With Santana the Mets will have the most integral component in piecing together a championship run ——— STARTING PITCHING. With Johan as our ace, we will have arguably the best rotation in the Majors the most formidable 4-man rotation in October (Santana, Martinez, Maine, Perez).
Offenses can get you to October. You need pitching to survive that month…
I think you’re over estimating the effectiveness of that 4 man rotation after Santana a bit much.
Ok. So you think F-Mart, Gomez and Guerra will bring a World Series? I’d be surprised if ONE of them ever sees an All-Star game. Santana personifies All-Star and is the closest thing to a World Series we will ever see in the next 5 years.
Ok I have been mentioning this for a while. If we can get Santana then do so, give them the prospects they want but ask for some extra parts back in return.
If you can not get Santana I would get Lowry or Snell. Both could be middle of the roation starters. I would even go as far to say that you could get both for the cost of Santana?
Pedro, Maine, Perez, Snell, Lowry would be a nice rotation that would have 4 young starters in it.
Something like
Pirates: Fmart, Mulvey, Humber
Giants: Gomez, Heilman, Smith
A couple of B prospects here or there, maybe even try and get Nady with Snell. That would work for me, assuming no Santana.
It would be great to get back even younger guys who can pan out, yes, but I don’t think the Mets will get anywhere in a counter offer where they ask for prospects back. Just my two cents.
What do you guys think about Chris Capuano, he had a terrible year last year but I see him as an Oliver Perez type. He’s lefty and under 30 and has a decent SO/9 ratio. Before last year his ERA was around 4.00. He could prob. be had for cheap as they have 8 starters right now.
Maybe Mulvey for Capuano straight up. It gives the Brewers a pitcher that has an upside that they can store away until they actually need it?
You’re on fire today. Trading with the brewskies for one of their many SPs would be a good thing. I’d want to do it even if we do trade for Johan. Can’t have enough ML ready pitchers for when the oldies get hurt.
Will you join riot if we don’t get Santana?
Riot will consist of knocking down globe from world’s fair and rolling it into shea stadium.
Post Yes or No and (if yes) how many rioters you can bring with you.
Yes, I will riot. I will bring my dog.
I appreciate all the Santana talk. It makes a Twins fan and blogger happy to be reading about his favorite pitcher. I’m very much a prospect hound, too, and it’s interesting to hear the various perspectives on selling your top ones for the right to Santana.
I do have some insight into what the Twins are thinking and perhaps where the Mets stand. It might be nothing new, but for those of you thinking your future might be ruined with a trade or worried about an injury or wondering what the Twins are thinking with Boston and/or NYY, I can provide a new perspective, maybe.
I’ll be here until about 3:30 your time, so feel free to ask away
Make that 4:30, sorry!
What exactly are the Twins thinking with Boston or the Yanks…I’d assume that they would rather trade with them to get Ellbury or Hughes but it doesn’t look to happen.
I am pretty sure the Twins do not want to give up Santana for less than a “sure” thing. Ellsbury is good, but they’re not sure he’s going to be a star, and I don’t think they want to deal with Scott Boras. They love Hughes, but there is nothing else to really like about the “offer” if there is one anymore.
And this is why it’s a longshot with the Mets, and why the Mets will have to give up the farm (lol).
OK. Confirm this. the yanks and sox are bluffing; as long as neither gets santana they are both out, right? Mets are only option for Twins ( or Twins keep him and make a run for it), right?
What is up with Nathan, trade possibilities? How about Heilman for Nathan.
Heliman will never get Nathan. The Twins liked him, obviously, but they would rather get a boatload of prospects near the deadline. They will hold onto him until June or July.
I think you’d be surprised by whom might be there in the end. The one thing about the Twins is that they do everything in silence. If not for the Sox or Yanks or Mets needing publicity, you’d never have heard of any offers for Santana.
Watch out for the Angels.
Hank Steinbrenner is getting awfully frustrated by the Twins. Not because they wouldn’t pull the trigger, but because the Twins are demanding it all stays out of the media. The Hank machinations are mostly about this and partially about the “fact” that Cashman and others don’t want to give up Hughes.
By the way, that’s basically saying they don’t want Santana.
The Twins offered Santana 4yrs, $80 million as an extension. It’s not that big of a leap to extend that to 6yrs, $120 million. If some team wants Santana, they will have to pony up.
I think the Twins would do this (disregarding minor prospects):
1. Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie
2. Hughes, Cabrera, Kennedy
3. Reyes, Gomez, Pelfrey/Mulvey
Because Reyes is the only established player, they might throw something back (nothing that would make you happy), but those are the deals that Bill Smith would pull the trigger on now. He can easily sign Santana, but he’s looking for efficiency in this market.
Reyes is the surest thing in the names above, but he’s full of flaws, including his contract situation, which is a big deal for the Twins. The rest of the names aren’t free agents until after 2013.
So you can put any talk about getting Santana without giving up F Mart to bed. It just wouldn’t happen in a million years. You could offer up your top 10 prospects according to BA, and the Twins wouldn’t be comfortable. But you should. Those prospects mean nothing compared to the pitcher you’d be getting.
I’m sorry but Reyes AND Gomez and Pelfrey??
That’s a joke, right?
Hughes has a high ceiling sure. Lester and Ellsbury project to be solid ML’ers but JOSE REYES??
You can’t compare a 24 yr. old SS whose already garnered 2 All-Star games, stolen over 80 bases, hit .300, hit 18 HR (as a 23 yr. old), hit over 80 RBI (as a 23yr.old) and scores OVER 120+ runs. In addition, he’s projected to win MULTIPLE Gold Gloves…
Please don’t put Jose Reyes in the same sentence as Phil Hughes and Ellsbury+Lester…
Agreed. What a pile of BS. He does realize his star pitcher has one year left on his contract, right?
Also, F-Mart is not some middling OF prospect. He is one of top prospects in baseball — a kid who could be a phenom. Sure, he could flame out. So could Santana. Now, you want Reyes, too? Keep dreaming. Want a Reyes? Trade for Gomez and wait with fingers crossed — maybe teach him to play shortstop.
Here’s a big mistake you all are making. Santana for you does not have one year left on his contract. He will not accept a trade without a major extension, so to say he has one year left is simply incorrect…from your point of view.
I don’t believe I ever mentioned Reyes and F Mart together.
But it matters to the Twins. They’ve got to let him go or risk getting zilch.
The Twins can sign Santana. It would be a mistake for any team really wanting Santana to think the Twins can’t do this.
Not only can the Twins sign Santana, but Smith has said that it would be his first choice on several occasions.
I don’t know how many times I have said it before, but I’m going to say it again. You are not dealing with a desperate team. This is not a fire sale.
Signing Santana is an option for the Twins. They do have the money. Looking at what other teams would be willing to offer are also options.
Smith is looking at all his options and will take the one that will make the most sense in 2008 and beyond.
Four for one isn’t going to get it done. Not with the players the mets have in their package.
I’m just saying what Bill Smith would do for sure. I’m not saying it would happen or even that’s it a good deal for the Mets (well, yes, it would be).
You don’t know what Bill Smith would do. Bill Smith doesn’t know what Bill Smith would do. And if you think giving up Reyes in a deal for a pitcher demanding a seven year contract would somehow be a good deal for the Mets, keep the dream alive. That’s moronic. Face it — your favorite team is in a bad spot and has to deal your favorite player. They cannot get every item on the wish list.
Yeah, that’s not true. The Twins do not have to deal Santana. Maybe that mindset is why the big market team fans think they don’t have to give much. The Twins can afford Santana, and he’s an extremely rare commodity. No matter what you read from “experts” I’ll guarantee the Twins can pay Santana enough to keep him happy for a long time. Whether they should is another question. They don’t have money to burn.
Sorry, Cabrera is a free agent after 2011, but he’s just filler in the Yanks deal.
Bill Smith would pull the trigger on a Reyes deal, but it would take more. That’s all I’m saying. If Gomez and Mulvey are not the right names, so be it. But from the Twins point of view, none of your prospects is especially appealiing, unless you talk F Mart or Guerra. And I’ll be very surprised if those guys together with all your other prospects will sway the Twins. It would be close, but it wouldn’t compare to either the Red Sox or Yanks adding that last little piece.
Again, this is not a deal for a one-year Santana. This is a deal for at least the next seven years of Santana at what is going to be a pretty fair price. He’s far and away the best pitcher in baseball, and there isn’t a team out there that doesn’t know it.
He’s past his injury nexus, and his downturn in numbers at the end of this past year, while it may be just normal variation, has more to do with his reluctance to throw his terrific slider after the Twins seemed out of the race. He was very uncomfortable with Liriano’s injury last year, which was mostly blamed on his reliance on the slider and Liriano’s motion when throwing it.
Seven years at a reasonable price? Rare is the pitcher that will put up ace numbers for four years of the seven. The reasonable price is the richest contract in history for a pitcher. And we are NOT talking about 1998 Pedro here. He’s great — maybe the best — but don’t get ahead of yourself.
In addition, to sign this “free agent” for seven years at said “reasonable price,” we have to scrape our farm system down to the bone while we’re at it. This for a guy who doesn’t want to throw his best pitch because the Twins are “out of it” and he doesn’t want to cost himself money with an injury? Great team guy.
Good comments, toomany. I will say that Santana has one year left (at $13.5) and will demand at least $20 for six more years. Is he better than Pedro? He’s different. He’s not overpowering, and he doesn’t have that wicked break, but he also has a smoother motion, and he’s very unlikely to go down with an injury because of his delivery.
As for Santana’s competitiveness, that’s not a problem. His slider is only his 3rd or 4th best pitch, but he needs to throw it every once in a while. Hitters are trying to wait on his change up, and at times that’s very successful. The slider is the pitch that messes the hitter up when he’s trying to do that.
It’s a tough decision. Your team is out of the race. You know your contract is probably going to get extended over the offseason. Your ace compadre isn’t allowed to lift his arm because he was throwing the slider too often.
Santana is a bulldog. You will never have to worry about him.
Santana also had some blister problems on his index and middle finger in the second have. Instead of taking a seat and letting them heal, he chose to pitch. It was kept quiet for obvious reasons.
The Twins also traded Castillo to the Mets just before the trade deadline. That was a serious piece of defense up the middle they lost. The rookie that filled in just couldn’t cut it. Lots of stupid mental errors that cost runs. Santana wasn’t the only Twins pitcher to see their ERA bloat at the end of last season. I think they all started getting hammered pretty hard there for a while.
By the way, I do appreciate your feelings on the value of Reyes. He’s quite a player. I know Twins fans would feel the same way about my statement if the players were reversed. It comes down to who is better, Santana or Reyes? Who is once in a generation (playing generation) type of player?
Both are entering their prime ages for their respective positions. One is more costly at the moment, though the numbers we’re talking per year for Santana will be what Boof Bonser gets in free agency five years from now. Silva just got $12 million, after all, for each of the next four years. That’s why the Twins can afford him, and that’s why some team is going to have to pony up.
It is my belief that Santana will destroy the NL. If the Mets’ bats are above average, he can win 25 games and maybe average 22 wins throughout his contract. That’s how good he is. You might also want to note he’s pretty nifty with the bat, too. He would have averaged that for the Twins had they had any offense. He’s entering his prime (28 now). The Mets would get his best years.
My personal hope is that the Twins simply sign him to 5-6 more years at $20 million. That’s the alternative to making a mediocre trade. So to think that asking for Reyes plus is too much is to be a fan of your players, and I think I’d feel like that, too.
Take Pelfrey/Mulvey, whichever. Can the Mets not replace him with a mediocre established pitcher via free agency? And Gomez, how good will he be, really. For the Mets, they’ll replace Gomez easily. For the Twins, he’s a cheap CF platoon with the possibility he’ll blossom into an everyday player.
I think 22 wins, averaged, for the length of the contract is about as pie-in-the-sky as saying Fernando Martinez is a surefire future MVP candidate — maybe moreso. He’s going to be the best pitcher in modern history with the Mets?? I’d love it to be true, but whoa — slow down there.
Actually, definitely moreso. Maddux won exactly 20 games all of twice. Pedro has done it two or three times. Slow down there, Tex. He’s an ace, but aces can go 16-8 and still be aces.
It might be. What isn’t too pie in the sky? I’ll guarantee whatever that number is.
Actually the Twins picked up a pretty decent CF in Pridie. Pridie was the player that never seems to get mentioned in the Garza/Young trade with the Rays.
Take a look at Gomez’s minot league stats, then compare them with Pridie’s. Pridie looks like he has more upside then Gomez.
Sorry, I’m replying to some of your comments, so they are displaying up above.
This has been fun. I’ve been really wanting to make a couple points to the great Mets fans out there. The clueless ones are few, and besides you know who they are by what they post. It’s a smaller share than what we have, though we’re not a horrible lot here. I just wanted to share some of the thinking, especially about whether the Twins *have* to trade Santana, why he may have dipped at the end of the year (worst case, normal variation), and what we’re looking for.
If the Twins make a deal with Mets without Reyes or Wright (that we’d do straight up!), I’d be surprised, but I will guarantee it will have a return of:
1. F Mart
2. Guerra
3. Gomez
4. Two close pitchers
Be assured, the Twins like Hughes better than that bunch combined, but the problem is that they can’t afford to end up with nothing in the deal, and an injury to a still-young, pre-injury-nexus Hughes is way too risky. Hence, the Kennedy demand.
You also should realize that Hughes and Kennedy (and filler Cabrera) is a far superior package (for the Twins) to anything the Mets can offer unless they start with Reyes.
A lot of Twins fans would have loved Milledge, but my guess is that such a trade couldn’t have happened. The Twins are really careful about bad apples. Too careful, if you ask me.
I will say, it’s easy to pass on Santana when he’s not on your team. But a few years down the road you might be kicking yourselves. Meanwhile, I’m pretty sure the Twins will guarantee they won’t be kicking themselves. They’ll have Santana locked up, or they’ll have some real good players in his place.
Finally a voice of reason.. post of the year!
The holdup is $150M and the chance of ligament surgery. Now, I don’t want to start rumors — I have heard NOTHING about Santana being hurt except that 4th tier speculation by Buster Olney, just desperately trying to get attention. But, any pitcher can hurt his arm at any time.
Finally , someone who actually gets it.
What’s the hold up here? two back end starters, a kid that’s 22 and can’t hit, and two long term shots who are 18-19.
Get it done already.
We have three 1st rounders, and can restock quickly, try and restock Johan Santana…
The future is now for the Mets not 2011 for gods sake.
It’s difficult to understand the alternative way of thinking. The Mets system is not especially strong, and these prospects are middling when you consider either their ceiling or the fact they are so young or far away.
The best bet is that the best of these prospects will end up being a good player, and that’s the type of player the Mets can easily replace via free agency.
When you lose Santana, you don’t replace him.
Oh man come on.. you gotta come with something better then that..
What do you care if the Mets spend 150 million on Johan? Do you have any idea how much money this team makes?
They just raised ticket prices 20% after one of the most painful seasons in recenet memory.. I’d rather Johan every 5th day if I’m paying 20% to go to a game..
And wait.. you mean atheletes can get hurt? Hmm.. let’s not sign any pitcher then..
Give me a break..
Pitchers get hurt with frequency — they are very hard to predict.
I don’t care how much money the Mets have or don’t have. That’s not what this is about. I know, however, that, like it or not, giving Santana $150M is $150M that won’t go to other players. They’re not just going to let the payroll balloon because you want them to. I don’t think they’re going for the Yankees’ business model anytime soon — even the Yankees are backing away from it.
What did we give Pedro to pitch not even half of his contract?
What did we pay Mo Vaugh to retire?
The list goes on and on and on
He is THE BEST pitcher in the game today, period.
You go get him and roll the dice, end of story
Hold on — this is an argument FOR doing the deal?
.Me too Big Lou