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Vince Gennaro, the author of Diamond Dollars: The Economics of Winning in Baseball, provides an interesting economical perspective regarding a trade for Johan Santana and how it would impact the Yankees, Red Sox, or Mets if they made the deal.
In this special article to Yahoo! Sports, Gennaro writes…
“The discussions between the Twins and Mets may hold the most promise. Acquiring Santana and signing him to a long-term deal is economically viable for the Mets because they have a new stadium in the works, their revenue would spike if they reach the postseason and they could remain under the luxury tax threshold. Santana’s potential revenue value to the Mets would average an estimated $40 million per year and would exceed his cost by about $100 million over six years, assuming the Mets can stay under the luxury tax threshold. This justifies the Mets packaging a combination of prospects from the list of Philip Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, Kevin Mulvey and Fernando Martinez. If three of the five prospects materialize into a number three pitcher in the rotation, a starting outfielder and a solid relief pitcher, then the Twins and the Mets receive about the same value in the trade.”
…none of this is terribly earth-shattering as we know santana makes the most sense for the mets for a variety of reasons, but it’s an interesting article that gives a nice economical break down for all those interested in the dollars and cents of it all, as well as the economic value of some of the prospects invovled in discussions. certainly worth the read..
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I’m happy to see it broken down economically by an expert. Makes sense to me. So based on his calculations for it to be a fair deal most of the prospects we give up have to work out for the Twins. And if most of them dont work out we win the deal. All signs point to it being a no brainer for Omar. He needs to make the deal happen at this point for the sake of his fanbase. We have come to close for us not to get him now. I for one will be very disapointed and let down if Santana isnt on the mound opening day as a Met. Furious better describes it. Look at F-Mart’s numbers in the minors last year. Not impressive at all. He cant be the player that holds up this trade. Maybe if we give him up we can take out Gomez who can play RF for us with Church this year. If they would rather F-Mart let them have him. Gomez will be better in my opinion.
I totally agree BSMITTYFDNY.
Speaking of economic analysis…….
Lets say the Mets make the trade and sign Santana to a 20 million per year deal….
What impact does this have on resigning Pedro and/or Ollie, especially per chance, one or both have better years than Santana?
It has nothing to do with it…what I meant was we could lose them to free agency…ecspecially with Boras as Perez agent. Duqe will not be back, and who knows with pedro?
Fernando Martinez is 18 years old with two short seasons of professional ball under his belt and your only analysis of him is that his numbers last year were “Not impressive at all.” That’s some astute observatin’ there, buddy.
You know where you and I stand Slob. Remember? I am a fireman ripping off the system. Isnt that what you said? Well off to work now to rip you all off. See ya.
What does that have to do with your dopey analysis of Fernando Martinez?
How do firemen rip off the system? I find that comment disturbing if he really said that.
No. Of course I didn’t say that. I said he was milking the prestige of his job for all it was worth.
We don’t win the trade. The Mets as a business, as in the Wilpons, wins the trade because it’s netting them an 40 extra million a year. IMO, if the trade goes down, the only way The Mets the sports team & fans win is if we win the W.S this year. Since that’s essentially what we’re trading the prospects for seeing as that Santana will be a free agent in 09.
We arent doing the deal unless we sign him as well so he wont be a free agent after 2009.
The Twins only control him for the rest of 08, so we’re trading for the right to him in 08. The extension has nothing to do with the Twins.
Gina – that’s just a silly comment, using semantics to prove a inconsequential point.
We are trading for Santana for the next five to seven years. Since only the Twins can negotiate with santana now, we are actually trading for 08 Santana and three days worth of exclusive negotiating rights – something no one else in baseball currently enjoys.
To say we are trading for one of year of him is just silly.
Finally somebody who gets it. Its not like the Twins are saying … “Hey! Because we like you guys so much, you can have the wonderful oppurtunity to extend him before we finalize a deal!”
Its more like Santana saying…” I am not putting any deal through unless I get a huge extension bigger then any pitcher has ever gotten before, over 6 or more years.”
It is a burden having to sign him. Not a prize. And besides, like Gina said, we are only paying for one year of Santana, that is what the Twins are offering. Anything that happens after that is our business.
Say you know somebody with a leased car that needs to get rid of it because they cant afford it anymore, so you offer to pay some money for the car and pay the rest of the payments until the lease expires (I dont know if this is even legal, just using it for the sake of this arguement.). The car works out well for you, you really enjoy it, and decide to renew the lease and keep the car for another few years. Should the person you bought the car from expect more money now because you decided to keep what he sold you instead of giving it back when the contract was up? Its the same thing. One year of Santana is not worth Fernando Martinez alone in my opinion. I will take 6 years over F-Mart in the majors over one year of Santana, not even much to think about there for me, which is why it is mind boggling that only about 5 percent of the readers here share my opinion. And F-Mart is only one of the prospects. We still have to give up 4 more guys , 2 of whom have monster upside. No way, this is like a bad dream. All I keep hoping is that the Yankees swoop in and steal him at the last second.
How, unless the Twins trade him to another team, he’s a free agent in 09. If the rumors people have been posting around here are true, he wants to stay on the East Cost and he wants to be in the NL. We would be the the clear favorites to sign him, since we’re also one of the few teams who can afford him.
But more importantly with the way our team is configured we’re not going to be better in 09 than we will be in 08. There’s to much age and to many players on the downsides of their careers. Plus trading the farm, and giving Santana such a huge contract is going to limit what we can do in the off season in 09. If we can’t win a world series with him in 08 it’s not very likely we’d win it 09.
“To say we are trading for one of year of him is just silly.”
No, it is what we like to call, umm, a fact. If Santana is not traded, will we still be able to make a deal with the twins for Santana and his current contract one year from now? No. The Twins only control one year of him. And stop calling it the right to negotiate. It isnt the right to negotiate. There will be no negotiation involved. Either you offer Santana a humongous contract exactly how he wants it, or he kills the deal, and waits for a new deal, or to become a free agent. It is a burden, and a necessity, not a right. Please Yankees, send Hughes away for this guy and I will breathe much easier.
SIGN HIM !!! WE NEED HIM!!! Lets stop the song and dnace and get it done
seriously….anyone got their head on straight ? . i’m tired of reading the same old gossip. its not 100% METSBLOG.com’s fault, but what do they have to choose from….we all read/hear the same BS about the santana trade…. enough. is it going to get us some wins, yes…but fernando martinez is LEGIT. leave him be. we’re going to waste years of recruiting and the hard work we’ve established in the carribbean, for what? a pitcher….yes, a pitcher we’d pay $25mm+ / yr ???.. am i losing my mind ??… are you not putting you’re head around this ?? 25mm/yr?
people (wilpons) need to look in the mirror and realize that this isn’t just about 2008, but its about our franchise…that’s right, FRANCHISE.. a word that is not associated w/ the Mets and it NEEDS to be. there are some of us who will sit on hold, and keep dialing when its busy, even for spring training tix…., when these guys/players we worship are dead asleep. Do they understand ? does anyone ? sometimes (most times) i feel it goes unanswered. everyone wants a quick fix… MARTY NOBLE, i call you out too… its easy to hate on everyone’s emails, but they want answers….i’m sure you have a wisea$$ remark for this too. but if you can’t give them real feelings, dont shoot them down. you’re like a noose ready to be strung. how bout some solutions ??…stop defending the STATS… we all know heilman is NOT an athlete, yet a b-level pitcher….stop. dont show me his stats….i dont need to realize that he’s a LEMON… you are in a unique situation to speak your mind…. we need color. we need hope. we need life. we need…..something….anyting…enough making yourself feel better. how bout some baseball. whats your ideal team ? what makes them win ? … 90% of the questions that come in are elementary, and we all know it….but what makes you breathe..what makes you wake up and love that you’re a mets fan ? write something from the heat that would wake up the inner most deamons of us. let us know that the fire is there, and need to see it !
but its your choice…
something dignified would be appreciated…
The closer we get to spring training, the more likely Santana is staying on the Twins.
Think about it, if the Yankees are sincerely out of the race and Boston is just standing pat, how come the mets have not aquired him yet? I know i’ve read that the twins management are determining whether to go for major league ready players (Red Sox) and prospects (mets) but this is taking way too long.
If F-Mart is holding up the deal, that is ridiculous. I know he has a high ceiling, but he is a prospect. He could turn out to be Alex Escobar before he becomes a star. Hopefully Omar knows what he’s doing, but for the last two offseasons he hasn’t done a damn thing.
Santana will not pitch for the Twins this year. It makes zero sense for them to lose him for nothing at the end of the year, which is what would happen since no team would trade for him without an extension and he would be insane to take one a half season from free agency. His no-trade would block all trades and he’d command $160mil next winter.
If our deal and every other teams deal appears worse than 2 first round picks…I’d say the Twins are evaluating that worth and could decide the picks are more valuable to their teams future. Keeping Santana is probably the biggest obstacle we face actually since it appears the Sox and Yanks are really not in this thing
i don’t care what anyone says or thinks. but, for one feel that we shouldn’t trade all three of our prized outfielders(millegde, gomez, martinez) in the same offseason. plus who will play corner outfield after this season, church?, endy?, alou? will we try for another trade?, pay some guy big bucks? when all we had to do is just try to keep either martinez or gomez..
Also as much as i agree with BSMITTYFDNY, i think that F-MART will be a better player than Gomez just cuz martinez, 19, put up better numbers injured in AA than most AA kids who are much older.i would try to keep F-MART even if it means parting with heilman.
Maine Man I agree about who would replace alou in ‘09, but what about our rotation if we dont get Santana? Pedro, Perez, Hernandez could all potentially be gone next year. That would leave maine and pelfrey with a bunch of unproven guys (Humber, Mulvey,etc) The major reason for the collapse was our pitching. To get a bona fide ace like Santana for 5 unproven guys is a must.
I do agree about flipping Gomez for F-Mart, but the Twins need a CF next year, so i doubt they would do that. Then again, what do I know? All I know is I want Santana pitching against the Marlins Opening Day 2008 in a mets uni..I just don’t see it happening the longer this drags on..
Well then if we swap F-Mart and Gomez we can throw in major league ready Church to play CF for them and take out Guerra to keep (who I like).
Then we let Gomez play RF everyday with Endy getting some at bats, we keep Guerra in the minors to develop, and they get a CF who is ready at the major league level in Church. Win, win.
Sounds like your not too high on Church? lol
Honestly, as long as we get him and don’t have to lose major league players on our roster I am all for it.
Is it me or are we as mets fans the only one talking about this supposed trade between the twins and mets?
It has been in some papers but we are beating it to death. Hopefully Omar knows how bad we need him…
Why do people keep acting as though Ryan Church is some hot commodity that the Twins might accept back in a trade? That type of thinking approaches angel dust territory. He’s not a prospect. He’s a platoon player. He’s not worth a plug nickel on the trade market.
we let gomez play RF every day? you want 3 black holes in your lineup?!
The only place Gomez should play next year is in AAA.
i have been on santana bandwagon for 3 years now, i know what you mean, personally i would trade every guy not named wright, reyes, beltran to get him. but more i think about it, the more i feel giving 5 guys for one is too risky and giving up too much. of course all Omar has to do is get say, a throw in outfielder or first baseman who becomes a surprize player(not a superstar or an allstar but a good enough to produce) and i would make this trade.
My new offer to the Twims:
F-Mart
Humber
Mulvey
Church (their everyday CF)
Gotay (I love his stick but we have way too many 2B)
They get their needed 5 for one and we get the ace we so desperatly need while keeping Gomez, Guerra, and Pelfrey. I love it.
hmm, an A for creativity of the trade but twins have just as many infielders and they would definitely ask to include Guerra or Gomez.(they are better prospects)
Thats fine but then I would say Pelfrey instead of Gotay and we keep Guerra who I think will be a stud.
new offer, well Im sticken with my original realistic quality trade led by (john Main,or Perez with extension), Ryan Church, and Guerra. bottom line is no other team out there will let the current minor leauge package offer we have pass without substantially countering with a real offer that will ultimately lead to this trade. Plus we might have to wait for about a week past the superbowl.
I like this analysis. Interesting that Santana more than pays his own way. With Perez and Maine coming up to higher salaries in the future and the need for a first baseman to replace Delgado, we can see how the challenge for Omar is to stay under the luxury tax threshold in the future. He has to sign Maine and Perez and I think there is a chance Pedro will want a year or two if he is feeling and performing well. So guys like Church and Schneider are just right to keep the team salaries down and yet provide defense and timely hits. Hopefully, Pelfry can be a good #5 man in the rotation for a few years. We can’t be like the Yanks with everyone on the team making almost 8 mill average at least a year. Not an easy job being a General Manager these days in Baseball. In Omar we trust!
“So guys like Church and Schneider are just right to keep the team salaries down and yet provide defense and timely hits.”
Itsa a good point, but unfortunately this blog doesnt have enough intelligence to think that “hmmm maybe my gm is getting some cheap at least league average parts so that we can spend huge dollarrs in bigger areas of need”. But no, Metsblog is made up of mostly moronic hypocrites.
“Look at F-Mart’s numbers in the minors last year. Not impressive at all.” I disagree with you BSMITTYFDNY.
If you look at his numbers last year, he spent time on the disabled list with a right hand contusion. If it wasn’t for that, I would bet that you would be looking at .290 and not .271. If you look at his numbers in 2006, he batted over .300 as a 17 year old. Keep in mind, this is an 18 year old kid who is still developing and growing – not 22 years old and the next coming of Vlad Guerrero. We’re talking about an 18 year old kid who held his own in Double-A batting .271 striking out only 51 times in 232 at-bats. How many 18 year olds have been force fed to play Double-A and at least come out unscathed? NONE until F-Mart. As far as your analysis goes, it is very short-sighted as well as inane. I for one, would compromise with the Twins to NOT include F-Mart in the deal. What they are getting is more than enough for a player who is entering his walk year, not a player who has three years left on a contract before he hits free agency.
I AGREE 100%
BSMITTY said that Fernando Martinez hit .271, I say that his BABIP(Batting average of balls in play) was .200.
That is ridiculously low! That means he was very, very unlucky. He was hitting balls right at people.
If his BABIP was around the median, he would have been hitting around .300(if not higher).
That doesn’t even factor in his hand problems.
All that considered for a guy playing in double A that should have been in high school.
There are only a handful of prospects with his ceiling.
Enough of this crap, forget about the money, forget about Martinez, MAKE THIS FREAKING DEAL!!!! You gotta give something to get something and we all know the Mets have the money (so please don’t try and get me to sympathize there). I also completely disagree with some people’s assumption that the Mets have any kind of bargaining power right now so they should play hardball, newsflash, the Twins don’t have to trade Santana to anyone!!! Between him, Liriano, Nathan, Mauer, and Morneau they can legitimately compete next season. So please Omar and Wilpon, try to do the right thing here, you owe it to Mets fans. To quote Apollo Creed: “There is no tomorrow!”
Of course there is a tomorrow. What kind of idiot are you?
If we make this deal, then there is no tomorrow, and 2009 and 2010 will probably have pretty bad, overpaid teams. Then you same idiots will be saying Omar is an idiot for trading Gomez and MArtinez.
Maybe you are used to mediocrity and accept it, but I want to win.
Carlos Gomez
Kevin Mulvey
Deolis Guerra
Aaron Heilman
Philip Humber
Nate Vineyard
or
Fernando Martinez
Kevin Mulvey
Deolis Guerra
Philip Humber
Nate Vineyard
for Senor Santana!
your first offer is too high but i will make the second offer in a heartbeat.
Gomez
Guerra
Mulvey
Humber
The Mets need to hold onto one of the two outfielders (Gomez,F-Mart) in this deal. No way do you trade them both. Add Heilman if needed to get it done.
new offer, well Im sticken with my original realistic quality trade led by (john Main,or Perez with extension), Ryan Church, and Guerra. bottom line is no other team out there (including phantom teams) will let the current minor leauge package offer we have pass without substantially countering with a real offer that will ultimately lead to this trade. Plus we might have to wait for about a week past the superbowl.
on Oliver Perez, look what Boras is countering with for arbitration this year, 6.5 mil, so if the twins negotiated an extension for this & beyond year as the mets intend to do with Santana, than Im thinking substantially less than Santana’s contract, maybe averaging 10 mil per for 4 years if negotiations went down now. Which would have twin fans and GM Smith jumping for joy with the talent brought back in this deal.
I can hear Omar now on after thoughts of the trade ” well Johan Santana is the greatest pitcher in MLB and to aquire a pitcher on that level, we were going to have to give up our future. I loved Oliver but sometimes your hand is forced and I think both teams involved made out very well”
(well guys Im just killing time while my girl cooks up dinner)
This is the same state we were in 1999 and we got Mike Hampton for that superstar Dotel and Mets fans whined then. The difference is that we won’t make the deal UNLESS we resign Santana and we have more than enough money.
Who care about any of the “prospects”?
In 2000, Hampton pitched us too the World Series and Santana immediately makes us the NL favorite to get to the World Series.
I don’t care if FMart turns into Beltran in 3-4 years and Gomez as well. By that time, Dwright and Reyes will be free agents and Beltran will be 3 years older.
The time to strike is NOW.
The days of the Mets being a ‘team on the cheap” are over….
Mets, with a new stadium and new network will have to sign free agents to win divisions and World Series, not only now, but in the following years.
This year it’s Santana…next year, we go after Texiera and/or a corer outfielder.
Trading Mulvey , Guerra , Martinez, Humber, and Gomez for Santana is over paying . Martinez and Guerra should not be included in the same deals. Why strip the farm system? Martinez is only 19 years old and Guerra is only 18 with unlimited potential. Santana would be nice but at what price?
I think if they could get him for a package centered around Pelfrey, Humber , Heilman ,Gomez and Gotay then do it but anything more would be too high of a price for the Mets to pay in the future. ….. I do like the Maine or Perez proposal. With Mulvey and Gomez could give the Twins major league ready quality players.
Here is what I would offer:
Deolis Guerra (P) – Baseball America Rated #2
Carlos Gomez (OF) – Baseball America Rated #3
Kevin Mulvey (P) – Baseball America Rated #4
Phil Humber (P) – Baseball America Rated #7
And if they insist on a 5th player, I would compromise on any of the following names:
Aaron Heilman (P)
Nathan Vineyard (P) – Baseball America Rated #9
Brant Rustich (P) – Baseball America Rated #6
Robert Parnell (P) – Baseball America Rated #10
Dan Murphy (3B, St. Lucie, A Ball)
D.J. Wabick (OF, Savannah, A Ball)
Brahiam Maldonado (OF, A Ball, Savannah)
Kevin Tomasiewicz (P, A Ball, St. Lucie).
Eddie Kunz (Baseball America Rated #5) is not eligible because he was drafted in 2007. However, if the Twins want him instead, then I guess he can be the Player to be Named Later and deal him around May when he becomes eligible. Again, dealing Fernando Martinez DOES NOT warrant this because Santana is in his walk year. He does not have the same deal as Haren because Haren has 3 years left (2008-2010) before he hits the market. So Minaya, DO NOT deal Fernando Martinez!!
Baseball America Article:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265152.html
deolis guerra the best pitcher in the mets aa and fernando martinez is the mets best batter in aa and gomez is the best in aaa and mulvey and humber in aaa come on now that should be a little to much or just right come on
Still no Johan, oh well, hello Kyle Loshe! Lets go GIANTS!!
I am warming up to the idea of a replacement #5 at this point. Is Lohse the answer? Who knows, but he adds depth and development time for the prospects.
A snell level guy for a more manageable set of prospects would work nicely too.
Just please, get this season started, already? I have never been so tired of an offseason before!
i really don’t understand what everyone is getting all crazy about…get your facts straight people!!! I am in a neutral zone as far as this trade goes i can’t figure if the mets shoudl trade for him let me break it down:
1. dont trade f-mart he will be a star the kid is 18 he is still a work in progress
2. its ok to trade the farm…the mets have 3 first round draft picks this year if the mets change there drafting style then they will prob get some star potienal players
3. Johan Santana is going to sign long term with the mets or any team aquires him. He has a no trade claus and he will reject any trade unless he gets a 5-6 year plus contract teams already know and assume this going in to discussion with the Twins
please omar just do something pull the trigger or say no im tired of all this Johan this, Johan that stuff circling around
Speaking of economics and pitching; what’s the deal with Oliver Perez and his contract?
i don’t see why the Mets don’t lock Ollie up with a long term, big money contract, like they did with Wright and Reyes. I would hate to lose OP to free agency.
Pedro
Santana
Maine
Perez
Pelfrey
thats nasty
The general consensus seems to be that Boras won’t let Perez sign a contract before seeing his value in free agency.
As much as i would love Santana to be a Met, I don’t think i could do it for what I consider a one year rental. Yes…. I understand we would gain the signing rights but I dont think I would want to be the team that gives up the players and the money. If everybody would hold tight, which Santana would prefer…… he could be had for $ not more. Just a thought….. t