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According to Joe Christensen in the Star-Tribune, “The Johan Santana trade discussions have reached a quiet but crucial stage.”
…to be honest, i’m no longer asking questions…for a long while it seemed i was the only person writing that the Mets even had a chance, let alone were involved in talks…now, things are quiet, just like christensen said…of course, don’t underestimate the current media cycle in new york, and how it impacts the way other local teams fight for news…
“The Twins know what they can get,” writes Christense, “And they realize none of the packages will appease their fans.”
On Friday, in an interview with MetsBlog, AaronGleeman.com’s Aaron Gleeman had the following to say, when asked how he and other Twins may react after a trade…
“I think it’s gonna be tough no matter what, even if they get Hughes back or well-known guys like that. It’s gonna be a huge PR-hit, I can already see that, it’s already building – especially with Torii Hunter already leaving…It’s gonna be a big PR-hit either way, but I think people will be fine with the Mets package.”
In a post to his blog for the Star-Tribune, La Velle E. Neal III asks himself, “How can the Twins deal with the Mets,” who are offering four or five prospects, and no major-league talent.
According Neal, “One MLB scout I spoke with Sunday feels that the Twins should throw a prospect into the deal to get the Mets to add Martinez.”
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Ok…..how about we add F-mart, they add Morneau :)
I kind of wonder why they even want Martinez, he projects to first base in the majors, and they already have Morneau.
Well I understand why they would want him, his bat, but why he would be the deal breaker. If they’re serious about wrapping Morneau up long term, which is supposedly one of the reasons they didn’t resign Hunter and aren’t resigning Santana, then where does Martinez fit in?
Gina, normally i agree with most your post but if you stop reading the scouts and actually see this kid play you’ll see a weak defensive center fielder with great instincts. I can see him at corner outfield mostly left field because of his arm strength. well, i guess if he never improves defensively they might eventually switch to first base but i doubt that’ll happen cuz with experience he’ll only get better
Yeah I can honestly say I’ve never seen him play, but if he really can be a solid corner out fielder then it makes sense.
And outfield of Martinez, Gomez and Young sounds pretty scary, even if it won’t debut till 010. I’m glad we’re not in the American League.
My personal opinion is that a deal will be done sometime between Thursday (24th) and Tuesday (29th)… My reasoning? Superbowl coverage is heavy now and will continue to be for a few days… then, it will slow down a bit as we must wait the 2 weeks before the bowl. It won’t pick up again until about half way through next week.
This time frame is a perfect opportunity for The Mets, The Twins and MLB to make some headlines right smack in the middle of the NFL’s spotlight!!
Makes perfect marketing sense as after the Giants win the big game, all sports media will start focusing on MLB. What better way to grab attention than to trade one of the biggest names in the sport!
Oh, and I think The Twins should add Joe Nathan if they want F-Mart… but either way this deal MUST be done!
I agree completly. No better time to make and announce the trade. Also agree that if we give up F-Mart they should throw in Nathan. Nathan ranked in top 5 of closers in latest Sporting News magazine. Actually top3 He sets up Wagner and we deal Heilman for prospects to replace those we lost or deal Heilman for an upgrade in outfield. I prefer (if we get Nathan only of course), that we deal Heilman for catcher and 1B prospect that we need in a year or two to replace Delagado and Schnieder. Thoughts?
i hope it happens today lol
I like the fact that Omar is playing hardball and trying to keep Martinez, and I would love nothing more than for that to happen. It seems like Omar feels he has a strong offer, and he’s waiting for the Twins to come to him. That could happen, but it’s a risky approach. It seems that the Twins are waiting for absolutely anything to push them over the top, so now might be the best time to make a push before we lose the opportunity.
If we wait, and the Yanks or the Sox wind up getting Santana, we will always feel that we were so close, and all we had to do was throw in Martinez and the deal would have been done. I can see this as being one of those things that came so close to happenning and us saying….”Man, if we had only thrown in Martinez, we could have had Santana”.
But the real nightmare scenario is that they don’t get Santana (and I doubt they will) and give in to pressure to rush Martinez to the Majors to appease the fans, thereby stunting his development. Extremely young, extremely talented players have had success before (Andruw Jones, Miguel Cabrera), but it’s always a longshot. They would be better served taking some time with him. This year, all year in AA. Next year, all year in AAA. If he debuts in ‘10, he’ll be what, 21?
I agree with that. But, if he has a huge year in AA (and is healthy), he could end up pulling a Wright and coming up sooner.
I would like to see all year in the minors, then 2009 will depend on ST, but ideally he starts in the minors and just plays his way up.
Okay, we throw in F-Mart, they throw in Liriano. :P
I think he ends up staying with the Twins. The new GM seems to be afraid to make the “wrong” move and take the PR sit. So the safe, CYA move? Keep Johan, and tell the fans they are making a run at the playoffs. And, offer him an extension.
So, if they already offered 4/80, bump it up to 5/100. If he takes it, it gives them a good feeling going into the new stadium. If he says no, they get the 2 picks, and blame Johan for turning down a huge contract and blowing off the fans.
Might not be the best LT interests of the team (winning in the future), but it is less risky for the GM.
And now I violated my embargo on talking about Santana. The whold situation has become ridiculous. Just let me know if something real happens.
Bill Smith CAN’T keep Santana into the season by plying him with ultimatums and hoping the fans blame him for turning down an offer WAY below market value. Why should he forego $25 million or more? Out of loyalty to the Twins? He’s shown true class throughout these proceedings, and for no fault of his own, he’s still with the club. Why exactly would the Twins be so pissed off at him that they’d turn him into an enemy.
Two draft picks may well end up being completely worthless or marginal.
What you suggest is the riskiest path of all for the GM.
Risky how? by the team not being as good 2-3 years from now, or for fan backlash for the move he made? My point is, keeping Johan (and trying to win in 2008) is the safest from a PR standpoint.
I never said to insult him, or make him into an enemy.
And, what is “market value”? I suggested offering him the biggest average salary per year LT deal ever for apitcher (5 years, 100,000,000). Not exactly insulting IMO.
If you mean 7 years, 160 million, that was a rumored request from his side, but there is no indication that any team will pay it.
If the Twins do make the 5/100 offer, he might take the home town discount, same as Zambrano, Peavey, etc. since it gives him secruity. What if he decides to play out hsi contract and blows out hsi elbow? Bye Bye big contract!
Yes from a PR standpoint holding Santana would be better. What you need to understand is teams should not let PR dictate what moves they make. Saying “Oh no the fans are going to be pissed so lets make a move that will hurt our team in the long run” is how losing franchises are run. The Mets have taken a bunch of PR hits in recent years and they still don’t think twice about it because if Omar thinks a move will help the team that is what he does regardless of what we would think.
Also if they hold him and end up with 2 draft picks in the long run that could end up being an even bigger PR nightmare as at that point you get not help from what Santana brought back until atleast 2012. Why wait that long when you can near immediate help now.
If Johan sticks with the Twins for one more year, and goes into free-agency (when teams will not be required to part with prospects) the bidding for him will be extremely spirited. A seven-year contract is a near-certainty. There may even be desperate eight-year offers. The annual tab will be over $20 million, and possibly as much as $25 million. I don’t know, since I can’t predict the future.
Whatever the final, winning bid turns out to be, the offers for his services will–barring injury–be FAR in excess of $100 million. Maybe $50 million more. And you still haven’t explained to me what the Twins have done to deserve (possibly) a $50 million favor from Johan.
The “insulting” part was suggesting that Johan should be seen as disloyal for accepting a deal that is ludicrously below market.
Johan’s been a trooper so far, but I think he’d like to leave for a team that’s hoping to compete for the pennant in 2008. His patience has been sorely tested. The Twins need to make their move soon.
correct.
That is why Johan would be silly to waive his no-trade midseason — once he starts with the Twins he might as well finish with them and cash in a few months later when the bidding war is legendary…. while Smith can start working on his draft board for the late 1st round picks he is awarded in 2009.
hey dj u forgot about when we got piazza that was because of p.r and us fans threatening to rip off freds toupee if we didnt get him
I’ve been saying this all along. Not that the Twins will keep Santana, but that they could if they really wanted to. They have the money. Smith knows this and has said on several occasions that resigning Santana would be his first choice. The 4 year 80 million dollar offer was low ball. Smith knew that whatever he offered would get rejected and used to up the price with someone else. And if the Twins did try to resign Santana, they would wind up bidding against themselves by making a higher first offer. Smith also knows what a huge PR fiasco he’ll have to face if he trades the best pitcher in the majors – no matter what he gets in return. Santana is a class act and is very well thought of in Minnesota. The fans love this guy almost as much as they loved Puckett.
At this point, it also has to be clear to Santana and his agent that they aren’t likely to get quite the deal they were hoping for from another team. Suddenly, that 4 year 80 million dollar offer doesn’t seem quite so unrealistic. I think all the Twins would have to do is add another year, maybe an option or two and some incentives and it would be a done deal.
At the same time, resigning Santana and tying up so much of the payroll in one player is a huge risk. They would have to be crazy not to put him out there and see what they could get. If somebody offers up a deal that completely wows them, they take it.
Ditto for Santana and his agent. A lot has been made about where Santana would like to play, but he has also said that he would like to stay in Minnesota. He is even building a house near the Twins spring training facility. That’s kind of a crazy thing to do in the last year of your contract if you’re unsure where you’ll be playing in 2009. Unless, of course, you don’t think you’ll be going anywhere for a while. At the same time he’d be crazy not to test the waters a bit and see what he might be able to get from a big market team. That’s why I don’t see him pulling out until the start of spring training at the earliest.
And that’s where we are at right now and have been at since the winter meetings. Smith is just waiting and listening to offers and saying, “wow me. Make me an offer I can’t pass up.” If nobody makes the right offer, oh well. He gets on the phone and reopens talks with Santana’s agent.
I think all the teams involved in this thing have been grossly overestimating the Twins desperation. They’ve been holding back and making offers based on the theory that Minnesota has to trade Santana and that getting anything in return is better then losing him to free agency in the fall. They feel they are only competing with the other teams interested in Santana. This is a huge error on their part. That is just not the case. Minnesota is still a huge player in this sweepstakes and as the only team that can talk deal to Santana, they are in the best position to sign him. You are not dealing with a desperate team that has to unload Santana for anything they can get, you are dealing with a team that doesn’t want to give him up and doesn’t have to.
A lot went wrong last year for them and they still spent most of the season only about five games out of first. They didn’t really start losing until they traded Castillo. That was a huge hit for them offensively and an even bigger hit defensively up the middle. Plus what it did to the overall moral of the team as well. It’s not a surprise that the Twins ERA’s started to bloat and the team really began to slide after that.
Smith has been quietly been making trades and picking up free agents to fill out the roster. Even without a replacement for Hunter the Twins are a much better team then they were in 2007 – or even 2006 when they won the division. Adding a CF to the current lineup would just be the icing on the cake. As is, this team will compete in 2008. If they resign Santana, they will compete beyond 2008 as well. They are just not going to do any trade that could potentially mess that up purely out of fear of loss. I don’t think they will wind up losing anything.
Whoever gets Santana will have, if not the best, then one of the best pitching rotations in the majors (Twins included). They will greatly improve themselves and their chances at the post season. The team that lands Santana – if they can land Santana – will have to find a way to trade from their strengths to also make the Twins a better team in 2008 and beyond without Santana then they are right now with him. Otherwise, Smith goes back to the table and locks Santana up. I just can’t see why Smith would even consider doing anything less.
Whatever happens, Santana will not be a free agent this fall. Waiting around for that is not an option.
If Santana is resigned, Smith might go out and acquire a CF right away. Lofton is out there and I know he has had talks with Boston about a trade for Crisp that doesn’t involve Santana. Resigning Santana, then going out right away and filling your CF hole would be a huge PR bonanza for Smith and the Twins that would probably sell a lot of season tickets.
I suspect though, that Smith would hold pat and go into spring with what he has. There are going to be a lot of new faces in camp. I would think that they would like to see if any of their prospects are ready to step into the CF role. If not, then they make a trade for help.
That was a little winded, but that’s the way I see this thing.
I like, and agree with, your analysis.
I particularly like that you made me overly long analytical posts look short in comparison.
What ever I can do for the team!
Very Well thought out theory, question being why would the Twins even toy with the future of such a talented and respected individual? I know business is business but If the twins even thought they’d have the slightest chance of resigning Santana, then they shouldnt want to upset him with public rumors of a trade unless the #’s were so far off that there just simply wasnt a chance he remained on the roster.
Management should infact not initiate the rumors of such high profile players at such an early stage of negotiation.
Remember in AROD’s case, he himself or his representitive was the one who started the negotiation and threat of abandonment.
Johan advised the twins early if the intent was to trade him, he wouldnt be traded during midseason, so either contact up, or trade up now, or forever hold your peace.
Thats what one has to respect of a high profile player like Pedro, he’d never go for the song and dance. At least not initiated by management.
None of what the Twins are doing is sneaky or underhanded. Everything is above board and with Santana’s knowledge and approval. They had to go to Santana to find out if he would even consider waving his no trade clause. Both parties know exactly what the other is doing and why.
If Santana gets traded, it will be because both sides came out ahead on the deal. If he doesn’t and resigns with the Twins it will be because both sides feel that it is the best move for them. For Minnesota it means knowing there isn’t a better deal out there for them and for Santana it means getting close to market value and getting it now without the risk that comes with waiting until after next season. Whatever happens it will be the best thing for both sides and there will be little chance of any lingering resentment. That really sounds like a win win to me.
Take a look at the message that all the teams are sending to team Santana. Boston is willing to pay 50 million just for the right to negotiate with an untried Japanese pitcher with no guarantees that they could actually sign him. However, nobody involved will fork over that one extra prospect that will get this deal done.
I’ll bet Santana is just feelin’ the love.
This is what I stated earlier “I know business is business but If the twins even thought they’d have the slightest chance of resigning Santana, then they shouldnt want to upset him with public rumors of a trade unless the #’s were so far off that there just simply wasnt a chance he remained on the roster.”
Now I dont see how the twins taking a timeout to try and trade Santana and see what they can get in return would help negotiation leverage if the twins still wanted to sign him. They would only contact Johans agent and say yeah your right, we should give you the $ that you want.
I think when team Santana agreed to waive his no trade clause and let the Twins explore trade options, they thought everybody would be falling all over themselves to get the deal done. The Twins would get buried in prospects and the winner would bury Santana in cash. And everybody would live happily ever after. I think just about everybody thought that – I know I did.
Here it is, a month later and they are no closer to a deal then when they started. It’s still the same teams with the same deals and the Twins still saying no way. That has got to affect what team Santana could expect to get if they ever get to the point where they can negotiate a contract. If they won’t give the Twins one more measly prospect, how can they expect to get 7 years at 25 million per from the same teams?
If team Santana doesn’t think it can get as much as they thought they could, then the gap narrows and the Twins original offer starts looking better. Team Santana starts looking at that deal and starts thinking that maybe they can work something out with the Twins after all. And they start to factor in the risk of injury or a the possibility of another sub par season.
If Johan makes it through to free agency, he will get a HUGE payday. Much more than $100 million for 5 years.
Most teams are reluctant to part with BOTH prospects and money. There will be multiple suitors willing to pony up the cash to land Santana after the 2008 season. Nothing that has occurred so far indicates that GMs feel Santana is overvalued.
There is a small chance that JS will stay with the Twins for the 2008 season. If that happens, it will be because Bill Smith failed to get a face-saving package of prospects. Not because Johan has suddenly realized the error of his ways and wants to live in Minnesota for the rest of his playing days.
Nobody can really say what Santana will get if he makes it to free agency next fall. Everybody is so quick to assume that he will get all this money thrown at him.
When the Twins announced that they would consider a trade for Santana, is there one person out there that thought that deal would still be pending with spring just three weeks away. I sure didn’t.
You are putting way too much value on prospects. The real value of a prospect is not that they might be the next Santana or or A-rod. The chances of that are so remote that it’s not even on most teams radars. The real value of a prospect is that they might be able to come up and merely do the job and in the process save the team a butt load of money for five six or seven years.
So the real value of a prospect still comes back to money.
If Santana makes it to free agency, a seven year contract will be just as risky then as it is today. Maybe more so since Santana will be a year older as well. There will also be a number of other free agents out there besides Santana as well. Ad in the the luxury taxes on top of that and I think a lot of teams will have just as many second thoughts then as they are now.
Several things:
1. Why is it “clear” that Santana won’t get what he’s looking for (moneywise) from another team? He hasn’t gone out onto the FA market yet. We have no idea what he’ll fetch. Six years @ $150 million seems realistic if he makes it to free agency. The obstacle for teams so far hasn’t been money: it’s been prospects.
2. You neglected to mention the spectacular improvements the Tigers have made in the off-season. With the Indians already a dominant team, Minny has very little chance of competing for the WC or the division.
3. GMs who can’t compete in the division and end up losing their valuable stars to free agency with only draft picks to show for their trouble don’t keep their jobs for very long.
4. Johan has said he wants to play for a contender. He’s angry at management for fielding a non-contending team. He won’t sign a long-term, sub-market deal with these people, unless he has a pretty astounding change of heart.
i agree mealticket i just wish johan would get a little bratty and force the twins to make a deal
1) It’s more about money then you want to believe. The owners may be balking at adding one more prospect, but that’s only because nobody else is giving them five. If one adds a fifth, they all will. You are placing way too much value on prospects.
2) I’m well aware of the Tigers and their moves. I’m also aware of Cleveland. A lot of things went wrong for the Twins last year and they still withing about five games of Cleveland until Castillo got traded. Minnesota has made moves that will improve them every bit as much as Detroit as improved their team, maybe more. If Minnesota keeps Santana, they will compete with these guys. If they resign him they will compete for several more years. Nobody can predict who will win, there are just too many variables, but they will compete and winning the division is certainly not out of the question.
3) Smith’s job is safe if for no other reason then he has shown that he knows how to keep the payroll down. Pohlad likes that in a GM. it’s the owner who fires the GM, not the fans.
4) Minnesota has won four of the last six central division titles.
I am so over this already….
Much derserved congrads to the Giants! How did the Giants get to the superbowl? They did it by aquiring Eli Manning! How did the Giants get Eli? They traded for the #1 first round pick just to acuire the rights to negotiate a contract. The Giants traded 2 slightly lower fisr round picks plus a 2nd or 3rd round pick just to obtain the negotiating rights with Eli which was criticized by almost everyone. The Giants went all in and morgaged their future by giving up 3 slightly lower top picks to get the edge. Do you see where Im going with this?
Yeah, but they might have been to the super bowl already if they had kept Rivers and the other guy that SD took in the same draft (2nd round?). So it isn’t quite so obvious.
ANd I am a Giants fan, but still realize they won a lot of games despite Eli, not because of him!
The Chargers got Rivers, NYG’s 2005 1rst round draft pick, used to select Shawne Merriman, and a 3rd and 5th rounder.
merriman -another steroid cheat
I just don’t get that while users in baseball get villified and black balled, users in the NFL make the Pro-Bowl (in the same season they get caught, no less) and are dubbed as consummate professionals…I don’t understand how the CBS announcers failed to mention the drug suspensions, while heaping praise on BOTH Harrison and Merriman
here here!
stickguy, if the giants had phillips rivers and shawn merriman theres no way they would be any better, id argue theyd be worse. they already led the league in sacks this year without merriman and have always had a good pass rush with strahan and recently with osi. Phillip rivers is not a game changing QB who can take over a game, eli is leading this team, when the chargers are playing well its LT and the D. look at the indy game rivers didnt even play in the 2nd half, and look at yesterday alone, no LT chargers rely on rivers and cant even get in the endzone while manning plays arguably his best game in below 0 weather on the road. manning is so much better than rivers and that trade has worked out. obviously different sports and not the best analogy but when you want someone and you need someone sometimes you have to over pay.
I totally agree with that sentiment and have a theory or two…
Baseball is a numbers game. It’s all about numbers. Batting averages, slugging percentages and so on. I don’t think you can have a real baseball conversation that doesn’t involve numbers on some level.
With baseball, certain numbers are sacred. They revered and looked at and admired by the fans with true awe. 56, 406, 60, 61, 300, 3000, 500, 715, 755 and so on down the line. Do I have to explain what those numbers are and why they are important to any baseball fan? No way Jose. When any player shows any sign of approaching any of those numbers it’s a BFD. The press goes nuts months in advance and hound the guy on a daily basis.
When a player achieves one of those numbers and is heralded as a hero only to be found to have done it in a dishonest way, the achievement is perceived as tainted and a stab in the back of every fan and every great player who ever played the game. The numbers will never be the same again. Barry Bonds hit more home runs then any player who ever lived, but he cheated and you can’t just take the old number back and pretend it never happened. That number is ruined forever, or at least until somebody can come along and top it.
In football, nobody really gives a hoot about numbers or records. The only number that matters is how many super bowls your team has won and/or do they have a shot at the playoffs (and thus, the super bowl) this year.
Are there any football numbers nearly as recognizable by football fans as those numbers I mentioned above are to baseball fans? Are there any milestone career numbers in football that mean as much as 300, 3000 or 500? I highly doubt it.
Rattle off some of the numbers that represent the greatest football achievements of all time like sacks records, touchdown catches and so on. I doubt the average football fan would even recognize them.
When a football player (or a player of any other sport for that matter) gets busted for steroids, nobody thinks the numbers are now tainted. There is never any talk of asterisks or anything like that. Nobody cares. The concern of the fans immediately turns to how it will affect their chances of making the playoffs. Bad for someone else may be good for us. The player does his suspension, then it’s business as usual. Because hey, maybe your team isn’t out of it yet.
Football (and just about every other sport for that matter) is also much more team oriented then baseball. In football an entire offense and an entire defense are involved in every play of every game. Success or failure depends on each player completing their assignment every play.
Baseball is still a team sport, but it is also a team sport that allows for personal achievement, actively monitors it via the stats, and rewards it accordingly. While baseball teams still win or lose games, within the context of each game one man still takes the mound and one man still steps up to the plate. All eyes are focused on them at that moment. The only thing I think even comes close to that in other sports is penalty shots and free throws.
Personally, I think Selig really screwed up with the Mitchel investigation and making the findings public. I know that most might think that the public should know and that the guilty should be punished. But ultimately baseball and everybody who considers themselves a fan are ones who are going to get punished. And we are going to get punished over and over and over again by this thing. This stigma is going to hang over baseball until the youngest player mentioned in that report retires and becomes no longer hall eligible and the last record by set by these guys is broken by someone else. And that could be decades.
In the meantime, every time a player has a spectacular season people are going to wonder if he is juiced. And anytime one the guys on the list makes the Hall of Fame ballot, the steroids issue is going to rear it’s ugly head all over again.
I think Selig should have laid down the law with stiff penalties that were enforced and left it at that. Leave a little room for doubt in the minds of the press and the fans about who did what and when. This is going to suck big time for a long time. The only person that seems to be gaining anything by it is Jose Canseco. And that really sucks.
Ok stickguy so your simile would be to hold on to all the prospects, and watch our current slightly above average Met team remain slightly above average for a long time? The prospects are gonna take time to develope, by then are stars will have more faults,and even then its a high risk move. Johan is not even the player with potential that gets drafted. He’s not even a great MLB ready player. He’s a proven best of the best contributor. Im talking about having great players at various positions on the Met team at the same time and we’ll need to trade up to acomplish that.
We saw where you were going with it and it applies to the Mets, but Stickguy was expllaining that it didn’t work with the Giants because I’d still rather have Roethlisberger, Merriman and Kaeding that Eli, and so would the Giants.
rather have Roethlisberger, Merriman and Kaeding *than* Eli
anyway, your analogy was flawed. The Chargers got immediate help, not future unknowns like the Mets are giving.
of course you get the basic idea, and one of the players the Giants would of drafted wouldnt of been Roethlisberger, it would of been Rivers with their 1st 1st rounder, and who knows second as each team values picks according to need. And when all is said and done, football GM’s have a much more difficult job as MLB has no salary cap. Giants would of signed Rivers, another 1st and 2nd rounder, pay them top salary, and would be forced to cut other players they couldnt afford. NFL teams are forced to subtract every time they add. Just like myself who always tells the truth, even when I lie.
Thanks for your insight into what the Giants would have done, however I disagree and stand by the fact that your analogy is flawed. That situation has nothing to do with the Mets getting Santana for now and giving up on the future. I will agree that the NFL is different though (which only makes your analogy less impactful)
To Metsmerized, Im not mad at you and your quite welcome for my Giant insite, but to claim my analogy is flawed is absured. MLB and NFL, two different set of rules apply. With salary caps, a rookie signing could equal a FA signing. So draft picks of guys out of college is on the same monetary playing field as the big boy FA’s. A GM packaging quality draft picks together is quantity of quality young multi million $ players for 1 multi million $ player that a GM is gambling on to be better than the rest. So any player new or old are equal tradewise. At the begining of the season a team’s salary cap is close or equal to the rest.
I know you realize this and my analogy is simply based on risk involved in a professional trade. Sometimes high risk trades are the ones that bring you to the next level.
I have to agree, we NEED a great quarterback!
Rivers’s team was in the AFC Championship. Comparing how they played in the play-offs, if you switch Eli and Rivers and give River’s two, or even one, good knee, are the results that different? Eli is a god player but the difference between him and Rivers really isn’t big enough to justify the Giants giving up two first round picks plus all those other picks for him.
Also if you want to compare the situation to another sport, how about the Miami heat? They gave up Caron Butler. Lamar Odom and the first round pick the Lakers used to select Jordan Farmar, to get Shaq. And it got them that championship they wanted, but now they’re fans are probably going to have to sit through at least 2 maybe 3 more losing seasons before they can even be a fringe play-off team again.
Obviously Johan isn’t nearly as old as Shaq was and barring an injury won’t fall off that quickly but I think the situations are at least comparable.
Gina most NFL GM’s and Front Office would rather have Eli over Rivers. A lot of people are talking about how soft Rivers throws the ball. He doesn’t have nearly as good an arm as Eli. Also Merriman is a product of steroids. Look at his numbers last year compared to this year, he is a different player. Rivers looks like he is more successful because he had a rushing powerhouse in LT and decent pass protection now Eli has good pass protection and he was better this year.
I can’t stand Merriman but I’d say the difference between his numbers are partially because of the change in defensive coordinators. Contrell doesn’t seem to have any idea how to run a 3-4 defense and uses his personnel terribly. The Chargers defense as a whole had 19 fewer sacks than last year.
Eli has a stronger arm, but Rivers is more accurate and seems to play better in pressure situations. I’d rather have Eli than Rivers, I think Eli is more talented he just seems have huge confidence problems, but not for two top ten picks a 3rd rounder and a 5th rounder. Neither of them is that good.
The Giants could have taken Roethlisberger or Rivers, and gotten Merriman and two other picks. You would rather have Eli?
As I said Merriman is a product of steroids, Roethlisberger is a product of his system not of good skills. Rivers is a decent QB who has had early success because of a good defense and a great RB. Eli is better then both it just took him a little longer to develop.
If everyone thought Roethlisberger was so good why did over 10 teams pass on him?
Yes maybe they dealt a little more then needed but in the long run the QB is the guy who gets locked up long term and I would prefer the better QB over an ok QB and a good LB. Linebackers are more like OF’s in baseball. You can always sign a good one
Why did 30 teams pass on Tom Brady multiple times.
How is Roethlisberger a product of a system not skill? What has Manning done to be better than Roethlisberger? Ben has one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and a mediocre receiving core. A higher completion percentage, a much higher ypa, so it’s not like he was throwing high percentage passes, more tds, less interceptions, and he would have thrown for more yards except he sat out the last game. I don’t see how you can argue Manning is better than Ben. Manning turned it around at the end of the season but he was erratic through-out the season.
Manning has had 5 straight decent games. He is now better than all of them. Ignore the fact that at one point this season his head was called for by fans and media (Lorenzen was not a better option luckily for Giants), that was all seasoning.
How could any of u ppl diss Big Ben. Hes 25 years old, hes the one actually going to the Pro Bowel with his 104 passer rating, 32 TD passes, weak Line, and not to Mention he is the Youngest QB in history to win a ring. Every sports Analyst in teh country would agree Roethlisberger is the Better QB.
so again, no trade, no championship, but the team’s halfway decent players make the team slightly above average but still with no championship title, and the team remains slightly above average for years to come.
I’m not saying no trade, at all. I just feel like there’s smarter ways more efficient ways to build a contender than going into win now mode. The heat got one championship and now they’re the laughing stock of the league. The Spurs have 4, what big trades have they made? They just draft and build efficiently so that they’re team is always a contender. Maybe rather than trading the whole farm for Santana we try and trade fewer players for a guy like Ian Snell?
True there are smarter ways, ans Santana is not the only solution, but he is the solution I’d want to hear. Snell would be nice but hes not the answer. what about a guy like Kazmir? A Billingsly or Lowery. Besides we already have a repaired Pedro. Pedro was pitching with his elbow problem for years and still dominated the leauge. The Mets knew about it when we signed him, and Theo Epstien knew about it when he didnt sign him.
I don’t know what to think about this talk about the Mets building a contender. I know I really hyped up the Twins chances in an earlier post when I talked about what they could possibly achieve if they resign Santana. I also think the Mets are right there as well. I couldn’t possibly imagine discussing the best teams in the NL and not mentioning the Mets.
My point is, the Mets aren’t building anything anymore. They are already there. They have stepped into that elite circle of teams that have a legitimate chance of making it to post. At some point, you have to take a hard cold honest look at the other teams and see how you stack up. Are there teams in your division that might give you a run for it? And what about the rest of the league?
I think Santana would make you the team to beat in the NL. You can talk about all the cheaper alternatives all you want, but nobody out there is going to put the fear in the hearts of other teams like this guy will. Nobody else will elevate the perceived strength of your pitching staff like this guy will. He is pure throw in the towel value and worth every penny of the 20+ million a year he will command.
Now true draft picks can not be traded in MLB, however MLB rookies get paid a set amount, NFL rookies get multi million dollar contracts so the comparison may not be fair, but wake up people! We must do whatever it takes to gat Johan.
Many past arguments have said trade the farm, everyone, to get this guy because we can reload with our 3 first round draft picks this year. Well, aren’t the Twins the masters of scouting and player development? Would they have any interest in a first round pick being added to the package instead of Martinez? That may put the Mets over the hump.
Just a thought.
What we don’t want to do is panic if he hits .230 this year in AA. He might need some time. If he hits .340, we can probably boost him to AAA early and accelerate the schedule, but that’s really getting ahead of ourselves. Unless he mashes at a historic pace, he should stick to plan, work on defense, baserunning, etc.
Oops — sorry — this response was meant to agree with stickguy, above. As to your post, I had thought draft picks could not be traded, but perhaps I’m wrong.
they can’t be traded. You can’t even trade guys for a full year after they get drafted.
Can we trade one of our player development coaches to the Twins?
I asked the same question a while ago, you can’t trade draft picks.
Its sort of a sticky thing–you can trade draft picks outright, but you can trade them after the draft—as the “player to be named later”…they are named after a year in the minors.
I think I’ve mentioned before that I would like to see the Mets throw in Martinez, Helman and more, if necessary and get Nathan and Santana and sign them both up longterm.
What if instead of asking for guys like Nathan and Morneau, we look for two diamond in the rough pitchers (like John Maine was) and hope that Rick can turn them around.
If the Twins have a higher caliber catching prospect who is blocked by Mauer at the AA or AAA level, I would consider adding F-Mart into the equation if they add the catching prospect.
Forget that…..you have to go to their Rookie league before you find any catching prospects. They have Drew Butera who they got from the Mets for Luis Castillo slated to start at AA New Britain.
the twins do have a catching prospect being blocked by mauer
Eventhough Omar would love to take full credit for scouting out John Main in the minors, truth be told Baltimore brought him up to MLB for quite a few starts where John was a quality SP with a very promising future. Ask Omar what he thought of Main’s 1st Met game as SP? I think it was against the pirates or the nationals. I was there and it wasnt a pretty performance.
actually, with the Orioles, Maine was Pelfrey. Hot shot top prospect that they brought up probably too early. He then pitched like crap and got sent down. I think he was up and down a couple of times without great results.
The Orioles then gave up on him too early (24/25 at the time) and the Mets reaped the benefit of their impatience.
just shows u what type of moron duquette is
thankfully this worked out in our favor i say ban the charbroiled duqette from the hot stove report
Yup, but I bet Omar follows the Mets closely enough to, you know, spell Maine’s name correctly…unlike the Captain. No worries, he’s only our number 2 pitcher.
lol,,,,,lol,lol,lol,,,,,,lol
If i’m not mistaken, they have a catching prospect and a first base prospect that are blocked by Mauer and Morneau
They also have an outfield prospect named Spann that is also very fast like Gomez.
oops sorry big lou didnt see your post
They also have Pridie as a CF prospect.
OP will be a free agent just like Santana. why doesn’t anyone talk about what to do with him?
I think he will sign with a west coast team (close to home)
Pedro very well could retire and El Duque will as well.
our rotation in our new stadium could be Maine and 4 unknowns.
You have to add F mart to the deal so we at least have Santana and Maine in the rotation. Throw in pelfrey( hopefully) and we can sign a couple arms.
We need to draft ptichers with our top 3 picks.
Perez has Boras as an agent and will surely test the free agent waters no matter how much money we throw at him…..Drafting 3 pitchers will not help because they will need time to develop.
o.p is going free agent no matter what boras doesn’t do home team discounts btw who was the scouts in the 70’s that found doc floyd youmans darling etc thats the guy we need for talent evaluations
I think the guy who scouted out Doc Gooden was a dectective watching drug deals from a window on the 10th floor in the projects with binoculars. …….(im sorry couldnt help it)
to quote my favorite philosipher homer “d’oh !!)
I will be shocked if Oliver Perez resigns with the Mets, especially with Boras’ penchant for taking his clients into the free agent market. I’m sure Boras is salivating Matt Holliday hitting the market in 2 years. I hope it all backfires on him! Now if the Twins want and insist on Martinez, then here is something they can think about:
Fernando Martinez
Aaron Heilman
Carlos Gomez
Phil Humber
Kevin Mulvey
Deolis Guerra
Give us:
Johan Santana
Kevin Slowey (P)
Chris Parmalee (OF)
Otherwise they should stop harping on Martinez and just make the friggin trade! Quite frankly, I do not want F-Mart dealt PERIOD! However if you want him – give us your top two, 72 hours to negotiate a contract with Santana and we’ll call it even.
then what can us mets fans look foward to bitch about lol
As for the first three picks the Mets have (18th courtesy of Atlanta, 22nd pick and 33rd pick courtesy of Atlanta), I’d go in this order: Hitter and two pitchers.
Just hope that a bunch falls through the cracks because of signability issues and the Mets (like the Tigers last year with Rick Porcello, take advantage of the opportunity). According to Baseball American, the 2008 draft class has the potential to be equal or better than the 2007 draft class.
i would do catcher ,1st baseman, pitcher. We need depth at those positions.
Gomez, F Mart, Guerra, Mulvey, Humber, Delgado for Santana and Morneau
That would give the Twins plenty of outfield and pitching depth and give the Mets and Ace and a number 4 hitter
uh wright what makes u think the twinkees is gonna take delgado and his 14 mil this year?? whatever u r on id like to take a toke
Makes 2 of us!!!
Question, if Shawn Green gets signed, do the mets get a 1st round draft pick in return from the team that signs him? And another question, if the Mets trade a Gomez or a Church, why wouldnt we just sign Green again for a few Mil? He wast that bad of a player, just not big $ worthy.
no draft picks the kosher kid i think was a c level f/a btw is pt st lucie newhere near orlando? i might be goin there in june figured id try to catch a game
I believe Port St. Lucie is right outside of Tampa, but I could be wrong
you are wrong. It is on the East coast. No idea how far from Orlando, but I would guess at least 2 hours?
damn i feel like that met rook that was buster with the bong in those pics what was his name now (too much weed fried my mind lol)
guys i say we try to jam the mets switchboard with our demands for doing the santana deal now make a catch phrase like “no johan no peace!” or 2,4,6,8 omars gotta loose some weight!!
As a twin’s fan I would say the chances of us “throwing in” either Morneau or Nathan just to add F-Mart to the deal is stupid, Let’s look at it this was Morneau (2006 MVP) Nathan one of the top closers in baseball (top 2 or 3) for a guy who hasn’t stepped foot on a Major League ball field. The twin’s would probably give you Nathan if you put in Reyes (which I know you won’t do). Santana would look good in a Met’s Uniform but you have to give quality players to get quality players.
Well you cant expect F-Mart to be thrown in to the already offered 4 for 1 deal. You may be right about Morneau and Nathan not being included because its not fair but we cant just throw in our top OF prospect either. Mulvey, Humber, Guerra, and Gomez is more than fair for one year of Johan. And yes it is only one year of him because the extension is on us. Its not like the Twins are dealing us an already signed Santana. He is going to cost 4 top prospects PLUS a long term big money deal. Smith better put the pipe down and stop trying to fleece us. If he doesnt want our guys then good luck to him getting Hughes from Hank and the Skanks. Omar needs to make his final offer and get a yes or no in 24 hours and move on. Other options are dwindling as time goes by. I really want Santana but I cant take the waiting game anymore.
Sorry if I came off as a jerk to the above Twin fan. Guess I kind of took my frustration with your GM and ours out on you but I really cant take the suspense anymore. Hopes of getting Johan are going up and down, and up and down. Enough! What is the hold up? And the more I think about it, what significant source has really said we have a good chance of landing him anyway. What reliable source is more like it? I am beginning to think we have created this false hope of a deal on our own as fans of the Mets and this blog. Obviously if Smith liked our 4 prospects enough a deal would be done by now. Hank isnt giving up Hughes and the BoSox dont want to make a deal unless the Yanks might. So what team is still out there waiting to snag Johan? Cubs? Dodgers? Dont know myself. Are we the only team Smith has left to make a deal with but he is holding firm on getting F-Mart too? A game of who blinks first? Too many whats and ifs for me. Please make it stop! Ok I will go take my meds now. LOL.
Maybe the press has been reading Metsblog.
Exactly. This blog seems to be the only source of Santana to the Mets rumors. If it were true there would be articles in NY papers everyday giving progress of the deal. The only good side to that is usually Omar doesnt negotiate through the press but rather makes deals that come out of LF. I sure hope thats the case here and we are surprised to have Santana as a NY Met very soon. Please God!
I think that was meant to be a joke.
Congrat’s to the Gints, however, Re: Eli vs. Rivers, I would have to agree that we overpaid in the number of picks we gave up for Eli. He is NOT a gamechanging QB. It is a relief when the # of interceptions per game is less than two. Eli was drafted with the hopes that he would produce on a similar level to Peyton. Hopefully he is on his way to coming closer to Peyton’s success, however he is no way near averaging 400 yds a game or 40 td’s a season. Can anyone say they wouldnt accept a trade of rivers, merriman & the other picks in exchange for eli this off season ? QB’s that throw for 200 yds a game are not superstars. It’s great to limit the giveaways but it not the same as single handedly winning the game.
Wow!!! Malazan08 watch what you say, we might have some young Met fans in the room that cant take the heat.
Now you do have a valid point. And there is no excuse for 20% hikes this year, or maybe the Wilpons are factoring in the increase cost of gas&electric utilities, but seriously, the Mets are gonna have to pay someone, so I cant see why they wouldnt pay a little more for the real thing in Santana. This deal is taking too much time because this trade’s going past thw winter meetings? Well when’s the last time the Mets came through on a big trade during these winter meetings? The fact remains that as long as Santana’s a Twin, the Mets have a chance.
Then in that case, neither did the Skankees front office nor Red Sox front office right?
What I don’t understand in your logic is, what are the other moves they aren’t making, since you say they are trying to hide an offseason of inactivity?
Is Santana the only possible move that can be made? If not, and they really don”t intend to get him, why wouldn’t Omar just make some other moves instead?
Or are you saying that they don’t really want Johan, but also don’t want to do anything else so it is a big shell game? Omar really doesn’t want to improve the team if he can?
Last I checked, they still have about the highest payroll in the NL, and they did make a huge (37mill?) bid on Dice K last year. I don’e exactly see where they won’t spend any money.
Tickets were hiked to pay for the excesses that “win now” fans practically forced on the team in the past, and to meet demand.
Also, how a failed, drawn-out negotiation is supposed to be a clandestine marketing strategy is beyond me. They look better pretending to go for Santana than saying the price is too high and not getting involved? Maybe fans who prefer the offseason “action” to play on the field want to have some sense that the Mets are “involved”, but frankly, in the eyes of most fans, this flirtation is getting old and not making the Mets look particularly good.
Its funny because there is a lot of talk that all the Mets talk is being released by the Twins to get the Yankees and Red Sox back into the mix. Are you saying the Mets are releasing this info? Because the only guy with known ties to Omar is Francesca and he has been saying 10% chance the Mets get Santana. Wouldn’t the Mets use Francesca to boost what you are talking about? Also why not mention that the Yankees raised ticket prices 50%. Is that justified because they won 1 post season game?
So they shy away from the big name players because they do not want to pay them so I guess Pedro and Beltran were simply scrubs no one wanted? I hate to mention Glavine but he was a scrub also right? They went above and beyond to get these guys to make this team a winner.
I don’t get these so called fans who hate and are so skeptical of the ownership yet they continue to devote so much time to the team. If I was sick of the ownership and thought they didn’t want to win I would stop caring about this team. That would make them frauds. The goal of nearly every organization is to win the World Series. If you say the team is so set on simply making money isn’t winning the World Series the ultimate payout? In glory and cash the World Series drives up a teams revenue and brings in more fans which equals even more money.
firemetsmanagement??is that u?
malazan08 must = firemetsmanagement.
Just when you think it is safe to comment on Metsblog again…..
I also think that the Met front office is not using fernado Martinez as an excuse not to make this trade but they’re using Maritinez as a final negotiating piece so they dont have to include anymore prospects besides Martinez.
In my eyes the Twins are the ones not looking good just for the fact that their trying to drain a team of as many players possible and no one is blinking. So they either take what is offered or settle for 2 draft picks at the end of the year, unless they can get a team to drain their system for 2 months of Johan which i don’t see happening.
Correct. If you don’t draw a line you never stop adding players. So you draw the line at F-Mart and when push comes to shove, you give him up, as you would have anyway in the first place.
So the Mets draw this line, question for LetsGetMetsmerized, does that batch of prospects G,G, M, M, H get this deal done?
the logic comes from the collapse. Once Willie was not fired there was an unwritten explanation that other changes would take place instead. Now while upgrading at each position so far — and waiting on who will take over for Glavine is the last step — seems great on paper, replacing Ryan Church for Shawn Green and resigning Castillo to play 162 games instead of 50, and Pedro and Duaner health, etc is not the headline changes we expected as fans.
I am in the (small) camp of believing that this team can work with a Glavine-esque innings eater who can compete, as the team is better than last year — HOWEVER, I also think that the mindset for change that was created by the collapse is far stronger than any other year, and therefore I think we must mortgage some of the future to appease that organizational void cause by that collapse. They have to make the “wrong” move on paper and get Johan and sign him for zillions — then they can go back to doing the right, Omar-esque little things within the organization that build winners.
dj ive been a mets fan for longer than id like to rememeber and all i got to say its hard not to be skeptical about the f/o look at 90 with strawberry 92 with cone 2000 w/ arod gurrerro colon in 03 etc i give them credit with pedro beltran wagner etc but i feel they did those trades to get back some credibility . look i will bleed orange & blue til the day i die but i do hate the way this team runs their day to day buisness practices and their p.r & promotions dept (xcept u jay horowitz) are extremely bush league
Talk will come from the Twins side regardless, because Omar has always played these things very close to vest…You’ll generally never see Met front office leaks with regards to trade talks
du du du dudududududududu
knock knock – who’s there?
mets snark
Which is the exact same thing the Mets, Yanks and Sox are trying to do to the Twins in reverse. There are no good guys or bad guys here. It’s just business as usual.
Firemetsmanagement is back in the house!