So, I would say that they are seriously hoping to land Santana, but it will have to be within the bounds of what they are willing to pay for him.

They’d love to keep Johan and have offered him $80 mil for a 4 year extension, but that wasn’t enough. They don’t want to commit more payroll to one player, as they want to keep salaries at 50-55% of revenue. Revenue will go up in 2010 with the new park, and they’re in good shape this year after losing Torii Hunter.

Only Mauer has a long term contract. They will go after Morneau and Cuddyer once they know what’s going to happen with Santana. If they were ready to throw in the towel on Johan, they’d get Morneau extended before his price goes up. He said recently that his interest in a long term deal depends on how he views their competitiveness long term. So if they trade Johan and don’t get much back, they essentially forfeit Morneau in a few years!

If you were Billy Smith, what would you do? You really can’t take a lowball offer. You can try harder to re-sign Johan and hope you can afford him. If he gets too expensive in a few years, you trade him then, while he’s under contract. He’ll be expensive and you still have limited taker options. You’d rather he go to the NL, and he loves to hit (career .257 BA, pretty strong for a guy who only bats a few times each year).

You could also wait for a major injury to a contender’s ace, which might happen. Or see who really needs him by the trading deadline this summer. In any case, he never walks as a free agent (my opinion).

You might also bundle him. Joe Nathan is probably available for the right price – anyone want one of the best closers to go with their new ace? Rincon can be had, he’s getting too expensive. But forget about Neshek or the other good, low price pitchers – that’s what they want to keep.

The Twins started out trying to fill holes at CF and DH, and improve offense. Then they created a hole at SS when they got
Young. They filled that with the best defensive SS but a weak hitter. 3B and 2B are adequate but could be upgraded. Plenty of corner OF. Still need a CF and maybe DH, and they’d like a proven starter to match with the kids (especially since they lost Silva, if Santana goes).

If they can’t get the CF and SP, they have to get a great group of prospects – or lose Morneau. Then there’s not a lot left to rebuild on, expect a few young pitchers.

I won’t talk about the Mets needs and wants – you all know those. The real question is whether this is the year we have the best shot at winning it all. If yes, get Santana. Otherwise, keep the kids and try again in 5 years!

We already have Endy, and probably Pagan, to do that.

It depends on what you project them each to be.

If martinez’s potential is Manny production with better D and Gomez is Endy with a bit more pop (maybe he becomes Kotsay), which one do you want?

Now, you obviously think that Pedro and Duque won’t be there at year end. Certainly possible, at least for El Duque.

Probably more likely is one or both needs a mid year vacation, but are hopefully back for the finish and playoffs.

Also, if they lose someone for an extended period of time (the rest of the year), most likely Omar will make a move to pick up someone different. In recent years, Duque and Perez came in on deadline deals.

So, I doubt Sosa is in the rotation (for more than a few spot starts). I am OK if you swap Sosa for Pedro, and if the worst happens, Sosa for a mid season pick up.

This assumes, of course, that Humber goes to AAA and really gets his stuff working, and is ready to be called up!

Lets see, if Maine and Perez make 33 starts each, and Duque and Pedro 25, and Pelfrey 25, that is 141. Therefore, spot starters and injury replacements have to come up with 21 starts.

That is building in 4-6 weeks off for 3/5 of the rotation, and if they don’t do it at the same time, 1 guy like Humber really could pitch almost a full season as a “6th man”

Also why I think they need to add one more solid starter to the rotation (even if not an Ace).

I think I am saying that I just don’t find the pitching to be as dire of a problem as some others here. Of course guys need to stay reasonably healthy, but every team has that problem!