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In a post to his blog for the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, John 
Hickey breaks down the market for O’s LHP Erik Bedard, and writes…
“The competition for Bedard may come down to the Mariners and the New York Mets. But the Mets have not pushed hard for Bedard, and the Mariners, while willing to trade Adam Jones, haven’t been willing to meet all the Baltimore demands.”
…first off, hickey is not quoting a source, he’s simply stating his opinion…by the way, it’s a very logical opinion, considering that the Mets are the only other team besides the M’s who are aggressively pursuing an ace in the trade market…
Last week, there had been talk of a potential swap between Baltimore and the Cubs, involving Bedard and 2B Brian Roberts. For more, read MLB Trade Rumors.
During December, the Mets offered Aaron Heilman, Carlos Gomez and Philip Humber to the O’s for Bedard, according to old reports from ESPN.com and MLB.com, among others, but it was rejected.
…as such, i hear lots of fans suggest that the Mets should just add a player like Fernando Martinez to get it done, much like with Johan Santana…the thing is, as i wrote during the Winter Meetings, i believe the O’s have been shopping bedard in hopes of getting back a very specific set of talent, and will just as soon start the season with him now, allowing more time to try and work on a contract extension, than trade him just to trade him for parts and pieces…in other words, if the O’s can not snag a player like M’s OF Adam Jones, Reds OF Jay Bruce or Dodgers OF Matt Kemp, et al, bedard will not be traded, since he is still two seasons away from being a free agent…
…for the Mets, i still believe it is santana or bust, which i truly hope is not the case…i mean, it’s amazing to me that the Mets off-season may be perceived as a total failure if they do not manage to trade for the best pitcher in baseball…that’s a lot to live up to, to say the least…
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So, what is it Matt, you want the Mets to have a back-up plan and the fans to lower their expectations? Are you implying that the Mets will not consider other options because the fans will be disappointed?
bedard is the most realistic option…great talent, not have to sacrifce as much to get him, and much cheaper than santana. can always waste 25mm/yr when he’s a free agent after ‘08. altho, i still find it absolutely ridic to pay a PITCHER that much money. but if he wants to be a Met THAT bad, like ya’ll say, good chance he’ll hold out to make it work next offseason…there could be a great chance at having both bedard and santana while sacrificing less lambs…and if we dont get santana, no big deal..its not like any other NL team will make the deal or free agent signing.
“it’s amazing to me that the Mets off-season will be considered a total failure if they do not manage to trade for the best pitcher in baseball…that’s a lot to live up to, to say the least…”
It’s only the case because they’ve done nothing else to address a team that didn’t even win 90 games last year.. forget the collapse at the end..
We’re minus 200 innings in the rotation, we’re midly bettter on defense with a full year of castillo, and we’re probably a little worse on offense with Church struggling against lefies, and schneider struggling against everyone..
The only bull pen help is a Rule V pickup and Matt Wise.. and we seem to be praying that Sanchez and Pedro 100% which is asking quite a bit..
They did this to themselves with 2 lack luster off seasons, and a huge season of disapointment… period.
Omar’s saving the $ for the Johan signing. There is no other answer.
Saving what money??? The Mets can afford whomever they want…
And if it is indeed Johan or bust, then they deserve to look like a failure if he doesn’t come here… that’s a pretty one sided and somewhat unrealisitic plan to fix this team.
You really think Church is not an upgrade over Green? Yikes.
Nope… and if it is.. it is marginal at best..
I think Green/Milledge puts up better numbers then Ryan Church..
And really.. Ryan Church?
Ryan, I hit .219 against lefties last year, Church? You really think that makes it a successfull off season? Yikes.. really.. Yikes.
well, if you are comparing a platoon to 1 guy, that isn’t fair. It should really be Church + whoever handles the RH ABs when he sits (same as with Green and Milledge).
Except Church wasn’t brought in to be a platoof OF.. he was brought in to start…
So my original post was talking about how we out offense is a little worse.. which is what I’m assuming “LetsgetMetsmerized” took exception too..
So I don’t think they plan to sit him against lefties? We don’t have a righty OF bat on the bench…
Factor in that you know Alou won’t play 162 games.. can’t afford for Church not to play the majority of games…
So my arguement is we’re worse on offense in 07 then we were in 06… and as far as I can see it still stands… based on the players we brought in..
If you wanna reason that Jose and Delgado will have better seasons and therefore we’ll be better.. well that’s not saying much about our off season either….
Hey its you again. Your back spouting off incorrect facts again, huh? For the 50th time the Mets did not lose 200 innings from last years rotation. I guess the only way you could look at it that way is not looking at the total picture. The Mets lost 200 Glavine innings and replaced it with 150ish Pedro innings. That means we lost around 50 innings. Considering the trash that we had pitching the 5 spot last year and at times even the 4 as well as normal progression for Maine and Perez then we actually have more innings on paper than we did last year.
And to look at Church as just a hitter against LH is complete twisting of the facts as well. How many dominant LH pitchers do we even face? He was a doubles machine last year hitting in the middle of the order, he will be fine in the 7th spot. Obviously you forget to mention how many runs he may save us on defense or the fact that he can play CF if needed.
I understand you are pesimistic right now but at least say things how they are.
Ha.. how did we go from Pedro being nothing to count on last year.. to say that we’re getting 150 or anything form him in 08?
You want to count on Pedro.. fine… but he hasn’t topped your 150 innings mark since 2005… he got to 130 in 2006.. missed all of 2007.. and now he’s suppose dot be fine?
How many dominant LHs do we face? gee I dunno? The Nats played pretty much teh same schedule as us.. and against those LHs, he hit .219.. enjoy the 6th inning of every big game when they bring in a lefty to face Church and he grounds out or pops out..
That is the fact… and do we really need another defensive minded OF? Chavez or Gomez could do that right now!
Why can’t we have an OF who can play defense AND hit.. what a concept!
Way not to let stats get in the way of a good arguement. Green was worse against LHP than Church was. He hit a great line of .195 AVG, .264OBP and .288 SLG. Church’s was .229, .316, .339.
How exactly is that not an improvement?
Again, that does not even mention defensively. Also, Easley can play OF if needed and hits LHP very well.
And Maine was terrible in the 2nd half sans his last start… Ollie was is usual Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde self with Mr. Hyde showing up more often..
Face it.. this team is not better on offene in 07 then they were in 06.. maybe slighty better on defense with a full year of Castillo..
And the pitching staff is hoping for two guys to have great seaons, when neither one has pitched a full season since 20065..
That is EXACTLY how it is.. there is no denying it
Wow .195 to .229… That ougha bring us the divison.. are you freaking kidding me?
Ryan Church is a 4th OF.. he’s been called that by everyone from Keith Law to Jim Callis.. if he’s an upgarde.. he’s marignal at best..
I bet Milledge puts up better numbers then Ryan Church this year..
Damon Easley? Oh plase.. short of two good weeks the guy was either hurt or un productive..
Face facts dude.. this team is not improved in 08 at this point…
How many innings do you expect Pedro to pitch, none? If we can’t count on him at all why even pitch him?
Lets go by your stats
Pedro 100
Maine 205 (surely you expect Maine to give us 15 more innings?)
Perez 200 (again normal progression and no injuries)
Elduque 150(same as last year)
Pelfrey/Humber/new guy 150
That’s 805 innings
Last year’s rotation
Glavine 200
Maine 191
Perez 177
Elduque 150
Pelfrey 67
That’s 785 innings
????????????????????
Again, injuries happen but even if we don’t get a Glavine replacement, as it stands right now we have just as many or more innings in our rotation than we did last year.
Why should I face it based on the stats. Show me one area besides Loduca’s offense that we went down this year?
And you are going to believe the media that Church is a 4th OF but you are willing to bet that Milledge would have put up as good of numbers here at Shea this year as Church? Based on what? Media hype.
Milledge will most likely be better than Church in a couple of years, not this year.
It does not matter that Church’s offensive numbers are a marginal upgrade, they are an upgrade none the less.
As for Easley you do know that he hit .280 with an .824 OPS in 200 AB’s last year. He also had 10 HR in those 200 AB’s while hitting .375 with a 1.052 OPS vs. LHP last year. I bet there are plenty of bench players that would love to get all that done in “Two weeks”
I have no doubts we’ll have bodies to pitch us through the games..
Just tell me how we’re better thanks to our off season.. that’s how this whole thread started….
So… Pedro may pitch between 100-200.. this has nothing to do without our offseason…
Ollie/Maine may pitch another 200.. again.. nothing to do with out off season…
And yes a collection of farm guys and El Duque will round out the rest…
How are we better? If I were to tell you Pedro was gonna win 13 games this year.. would you be pretty happy with that?
If he does that he just equals Glavine’s totals from last year…
If you wanna go into the arguement that Pedro/Sanchez starting the year on the active roster… Jose/Delgado will be better in 08.. and that some young guy from the pile of Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey will put together a solid season.. that’s one arguement..
But it also shows we didn’t really improve in the off season.. that’s my only point here…
Church’s stats for a corner OF are far from impressive…
I mean really… .229 against Lefties?
That’s the best we can do for a corner OF..
He’s a 4th OF.. the FA pool was littered with with guys who are better players then Church, and yet we give up young talent to get him…
Easely we’ll see.. I don’t think he’s a platoon OF either…
And yes in 76 Games Easly hit .280.. whoopty friggen do…
Again.. how are we better?
Cause Easly and Church are playing Right instead of Milledge and Church?
Yeah that will bring us the division.. good job Omar..
RF – Upgrade (small or large, it’s still an upgrade. Green was a nightmare in Left)
CF – Same
LF – Same
1B – Same
2B – Upgrade (Full year)
SS- Same
3B – Same
C- Upgrade defensively (and not that much of a downgrade offensively)
SP – About the same (Pedro takes over as Glavine)
BP – Upgrade (No Mota and Duaner is back)
make that a nightmare in right for Green
just saw letsgetmarrried’s post. Great minds think alike
a total failure might be a bit strong (except for a few of the more vocal Mets bloggers!).
Let’s say that if they don’t get Johan, but add someone else to upgrade the rotation (say Snell or Blanton level), then the off season would have to be considered successful since they addressed there needs and put together a solid team. it would only be disappointing if you had your heart set on Santana.
If they do absolutely nothing else (or maybe add a Livan type, then that could be considered a poor offseason.
Just my opinion, but I just don’t see Omar going into the season without any more moves on the pitching staff.
By “bust” I assume they mean getting someone else to replace Glavine. Until Santana is settled, why would Omar go to plan B when he is the frontrunner to get Santana? If it falls through, he looks to Bedard, then Blanton, or Snell, or who knows. But Glavine will be replaced.
Ok so you guys want to trade away a key piece of our bullpen that will leave an enormous hole for a guy that has been injured ? Brilliant move. I hope omar takes Heilman off the table.
I hope that, if they don’t add another SP, that the pen options kick butt in ST, so that they have a shortage of spots. That frees up Heilman for the rotation.
He earned the job 2 years ago by out pitching Bannister, so why not let him have another shot? Up until 2 years ago he was always a SP, so he should remember how to do it!
when did Heilman win ther job in spring training? he lost out to Bannister…and Tyler Yates before it…and Jae Seo…do you really think multiple managers and pitching coaches have overlooked him and he really is the best option?
NO. Willie/Rick will put out the guy who is the best and Heilman has never been the best option, one good start doesnt mean squat and no one in baseball thinks this guy has any shot of being more than a mediocre #5, if they did people would be trying to pry this guy away for years and no one’s come calling.
Matt Cerrone was great on the hot stove last night. just recently commenting on this blog, I didnt realize the influence comments might create. I mean Matt and his bolg information, or quite simply just Matt alone interviewed on the hot stove, the same hot stove that interviews ML baseball players, Willie, and Omar tells me that some input from this site might hold some weight, or at least Omar or someone behind the sceens might browse through it once in awhile. Keep up the good work Matt!
“…i mean, it’s amazing to me that the Mets off-season will be considered a total failure if they do not manage to trade for the best pitcher in baseball…that’s a lot to live up to, to say the least…”
Here comes the excuses because these “rumors” were just that. THEY have hunged their whole off season on getting Santana and when it doesn’t happen this season will be a big fat bust, just like last year. Oh, but everyone will be able (and will) say they were “in” on the Santana talks. Sure…
Anyone who thinks the mets offseason has been a total failure if they dont sign Santana is a fool. Dont listen to the media they are talking heads who need a headline each day to get paid. they are all full if ####. The mets improved because MOTA and Glavine are gone, PEDRO is back and Sanchez is 100% healthyand in great shape according to Rick Peterson. Peterson also said Pedro is 100% back and on schedule. Duque is the only ? and I would give the ball to Mulvet anyday if he goes down, have you guys seen Mulveys stats last year in binghamton and new orleans? hes killing them in super hitting friendly parks baby, leading the leagues. OH YEAH!!!!!!
Sanchez hasn’t pitched a full season since 2005.. yes 2005… he never finished 2006, missed all of 2007.. and now you’re expecting him to be as good as he was, for a little more then half of 2006? That’s asking just a bit much..
Pedro also hasn’t pitched 200 innings since 2005.. again asking him to do that for the first time in 3 years is asking a bit much…
Yes Glavine had the worst game of his life to end the season, but he also pitched 200 innings and won 13 games..
Suree Mota sucks.. but who did we add to the bull pen, for a unit that clearly struggled for the 2nd half of the season?
Mulvey gave up 147 hits in 158 innings between AA and AAA last year.. far from “killing” anyone
what to expect:
1b should be better
2b 162 games instead of 50 and backups
ss should improve
3b same
lf same
cf same
rf upgrade from green
c upgrade defense slight downgrade offense (maybe)
sp1 pedro 25 starts (misses 7ish) instead of 5 starts and lawrence types guys filling in
sp2 ?? instead of glavine
sp3, 4 same
sp 5 pelfrey will improve
swing duque replaces sele
pen duaner returns, wise replaces mota
closer same
bench chavez healthier? gotay yr older, stauche not starting
Are you really going to tell me that losing Milledge as the backup corner is that dramatic a loss as the righty platoon mate for the lefty RFer? To me it comes down to who replaces Glavine. So yes, if it is Santana it is a HUGE offseason, if it is Livan it is a downgrade from Glavine. If it is someone inbetween in the Blanton range, I think it will be a wash (Glavine had his faults but admit that he was solid #2 most times), and a wash would mean they upgraded the team overall.
Again, as of now the team is upgraded, and if the returning players do in fact bounce back and play with hunger lacking last year, they should be in the low 90s in wins, which should have them right there with the other good teams in the NL. Johan would put them as the clear favorites.
Glavine wasn’t a 2. He was a 5. He rarely made it into the 7th inning and always seem to leave the game giving up 4 runs. He was reliable to make his starts and not go to the swing man early, but number 2 starters don’t do that. A number 5 starter does. We tend to think of a number five as Dave Williams or Chan Ho Park because we our number 2 pitcher was a number 5 and we filled the 5-slot with guys that were not legitimate major league pitchers.
Also, although I respected Glavine, I don’t think he helped the team last year. As a number 2 pitcher he constantly saw the bullpen coming in for three plus innings. That wore out our bullpen down the stretch. A number 2 pitcher should be able to go 7 every time and have his team near winning. Smoltz, Buehrle and Harang are number 2s.
Glavine will be better for the Braves because he won’t be slotted so high and others will play the number two role for them, thus hurting them less.
No I do not expect Sanchez to be as good as he was. He needs to only be ok. Theres a small hole in the pen to fill yet. I think the Show will be much better this year then last. Peterson said he leg is healed fine on the mets hot stove.
Oh year I forgot to say that Matt you were looking a tad chunky on SNY last night. married life has agreed with you dude. Just a hint, get a suit so you fit in better and look more respectable.
ouch
I am the same height and weight as I was ten years ago, let alone since I got married.
Thanks for your concern, though.
HATER!!!! Get a life…
As others have said, this off season would be a complete failure because a non-playoff team that is still pretty old did nothing to improve its team, address its glaring needs, didn’t replace Glavine, AND didn’t hold anyone responsible for an epic collapse.
How could anyone possibly think that this was a good off season (unless you are a big fan of old second basemen)?
Because the off-season is not over and the frontline pitching market has yet to move.
just remember everyone not much needs to be done…we were one game away from the playoffs and lost 5-10 wins in the late months just due to Reyes sucking at all things baseball…at this point this team is one player away and that player is a SP who can replace Glavine…the prob is there are either SP’s that are far superior (Santana) or ones who are far worse (Lohse), Silva was the only one who could replace the ERA/innings combo of Glavine….he gone now.
our pen could be better but there is no realistic way to make it better without sending off prospects for middle relief…stupid.
Here’s to hoping we get Santana and push Humber and Pelfrey into the pen or AAA and thats it.
Lastly, at this point Bedard should return much more than Santana in terms of prospects as the Orioles don’t need to trade Bedard until the end of 09
I think the value of Bedard is an exaggeration. Otherwise they wouldn’t have offered Bedard/Roberts to the Cubs for 4/5 prospects according to Phil Rogers..
Now unless the baseball community is suggesting that the Cubs prospects are much hotter than the Mets prospects? (I think potentially Pelfrey is just as good as Hill) it seems Bedard isn’t as wanted as some would suggest.
We are not talking about Bruce’s level of ability.
I think the O’s turned down a 7/2 deal from what I have read.
Thats what I read as well. But if we ignore the quantity and look at the quality, is it so much better than the initial Mets offer? (the Cubs deal also includes Roberts).
I don’t think so. I honestly believe the Mets prospects are better.
From what I have read the deal was vetoed by Angelos but had been agreed at the GM level. Thats why I think Santana was always the primary target and if it falls through it won’t be that difficult acquiring another quality pitcher. Whatever happens the Mets prospects are now being taken more seriously by all GMs.
LetsGetMetsmerized ……bringing back common sense since 2008
Get your facts straight!
Schneider=LoDuca
Church=Green
Pedro=Glavine
Register=Mota
Castillo=not old. He’s 32.
Johan=ace
Bedard=possible future ace
Valentin=good bench signing
Heilman=not a starter
So far we are basically the same team as last year. Omar is correct in waiting for Johan as long as possible. I think it is correct not to panic and be patient. Worse case scenario is that we don’t get a starter. Then our rotation will be Pedro, Maine, Perez, El Duque, Pelfrey/Humber/Mulvey. I’d rather have Johan but I can live with that.
The difference maker in 2008 is going to come down pride and wanting to correct the collapse of 2007.
PS-Why hasn’t anyone mentioned signing Shawn Green as a bench player/backup 1B?
just Be happy OMar re-signed marlin anderson for the bench
Church=Green? On what planet? When was the last time Green hit 43 doubles, thats more then DW hit last year and would have led the mets. Church is well beyond Green defensively.
Pedro = Glavine hahahahahhaahahahahhahahaha
Castillo- Ill take an old 32 year old that hits 300 behind Reyes anyday of the week. Where do you com up with this stuff.
Bedard- The orioles are not trading bedard, they are just assessing the value they can get for him. They have repeatedly turned down all offers. He has 2 more years under arbitration, he will be traded next year.
Johan might be an Ace now but he has alot of innings on his arm the last 4 years. Check out his stats after that 17K game last year when he went in the bucket. 4 times teams scored 4 er againts him, 1 time 6er. Be weary very weary.
As far as your strategy goes I agree wait on Santana . I for one am not worried if we dont get him. this mets team out classed the rest of the NL east until the last month. With several guys having pretty bad seasons because of injury ( delgado) or just sucking down the stretch( Mota, Reyes) That wont happen again, they are angry and will be up for proving everyone wrong last year.
Valentin is in AAA unless someone gets hurt Period.
Its too bad we signed castillo so that we can’t persue roberts and bedard. If both were included I would trade F-mart and gomez.
I’d still rather have santana, but Bedard is an ace and Omar should definitely persue him
I am not sure we have the prospects to get Bedard much less both.
Blah! Bedard, Haren…. Haren had one good half year and Bedard had two good years. Oliver Perez had two years comparable to Bedard. Is anyone offering their entire farm system for him. These days one dominant season creates an “ace.” In that case, we have Pedro, Maine, and OP…three aces. We should dominate the NL.
The only pitcher worth trading for is Santana as he is proven and has at least 4 good years left in the NL assuming he does not get injured.
Bedard has 1 year where h pitched a full year and 3 where he has 28, 26 and 24 starts. Last year being 28 starts shows hes still not totally healthy. Bedard did not pitch in Sept, why were they holding him out?
Lets see, if Maine and Perez make 33 starts each, and Duque and Pedro 25, and Pelfrey 25, that is 141. Therefore, spot starters and injury replacements have to come up with 21 starts.
That is building in 4-6 weeks off for 3/5 of the rotation, and if they don’t do it at the same time, 1 guy like Humber really could pitch almost a full season as a “6th man” And if Pelfrey doesn’t get hurt, he could pitch more games, I was just being conservative with his innings.
Humber wouldn’t get all those starts unless he was pitching lights out at AAA and really had his stuff working. If not him, darned if I know who it would be (Sosa, Mulvey, someone picked up when needed)
This is also why I think they need to add one more solid starter to the rotation (even if not an Ace).
I think I am saying that I just don’t find the pitching to be as dire of a problem as some others here. Of course guys need to stay reasonably healthy, but every team has that problem!
Not guaranteeing anything, but you can reasonably project the Mets to have one of the best rotations in the league to start the season, without making rediculous assumptions (I don’t consider Pedro making 25 generally good starts ridiculous).
Since this is a Bedard thread, there is just as high a probability that he breaks down as any of the Met starters do!
Instead of adding F-Mart to either Bedard or Santana trades, Wouldn’t they deserve a major league ready player instead. perhaps adding church, a proven capable player, Then Hiellman with the prospects including burgos and take out f-mart would make more sense for both teams. Signing colon and have Duque and Mulvey and others as back ups to pedro,colon,bedard.
1.Pedro
2.Bedard
3.maine
4.Ollie
5.colon
Backups:
Pelfrey
Mulvey
Duque and others
We keep fmart and guerro if we get Bedard instead of santana
platoon easley when lefties pitch with Endy in rf or pick up someone.