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At ESPN.com, Buster Olney breaks down the Open-Ended Questions that Face Every Team at the start of spring training.
For the Mets, Olney asks:
“Who will take the ball at the front end of the Mets’ rotation, and is that good enough to overcome the Phillies, Braves and the mental ghosts of last September?”
…i can answer this one, if the Mets get Johan Santana…everything else else is irrelevant...
As for the rest of the National League East, Olney inquires:
“Braves: Can John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton take the ball for 85-90 starts?
“Phillies: Will Brad Lidge be dominant Brad Lidge, or will he give the Philly fans reason to boo him?
“Marlins: Can the stable of injured young starters bounce back?
“Nationals: How will their new ballpark play, and how will it affect the current group of players?”
…added to by Matthew Cerrone…
…brandon is right…and this is exactly why i am so eager for this santana story to end…
…it’s just so hard to start analyzing the Mets and 2008, because with one swift move the entire dynamic could change…
Yeah — Omar’s offseason goes from stagnant (perceived or otherwise) to brilliant with one move.
If he uses Church in the deal it even makes up for his one misstep too.
*misstep also perceived or otherwise :)
Their was this guy on the subway when I passed shea today. He yelled out of nowhere ” Omar you better get Santana or I’ll tear down Shea and the Mets will play in Citi field as it is” and he did a fist pump too. I think he meant it.
Haha, that’s awesome. Gotta love random slice of life stuff on the subway.
I understand they are just trying to fill space, but shouldn’t journalists wait to put out articles like this until just before the season starts? Like when, I dunno, teams are actually set and games are ready to be played? Seems kind of futile to do this sort of thing in mid- to late-January.
Seriously… someone tell me how he keeps his moves close to the vest again please?
Santana and a healthy Sanchez completely changes the look of the NL East and the NL. The Phils and Braves won’t be able to compete.
Well in effect it would be getting Johan Santana and Brian Schneider for Milledge, Church, Mulvey, Guerra, and Martinez.
Technically Church doesn’t count in that equation. You need to balance what the Mets had in ‘07 with what they will (might) have in ‘08. So the Mets would be giving up Milledge, Mulvey, Guerra, and Martinez for Santana and Schneider.
This is a dumb time to comment on a team that clearly isn’t done yet…
I think Olney, like the rest of us cynics, believe that the rosters are already set for next season….miserably. Here’s a question for everyone… Why would Wilpon issue the highest pitching contract ever when his team suffered the worst collapse in the history of the sport and people are still falling over themselves to send in money for next season despite a 20% rise in ticket prices? Furthermore, you can guarantee that the entire 2009 season will be sold out for every game by virtue of the new stadium. Does it make sense to add that money to the payroll when the public is already sending in their money after this abyssmal offseason? I certainly hope that I am wrong, but it doesn’t make financial sense for him to do it.. He can’t sell more tickets to a sold out arena… why take on the expense.. to make the fans happy? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
just to respond, you are correct..the stadium will be sold out but Santana will bring millions in revenue due to jerseys, advertising, etc. They would be making a lot more money than they would be giving Santana.
OK, prove what you said.
How much profit per Santana jersey?
How many people don’t buy a different Met jersey b/c they buy a Santana jersey?
Why will advertisers pay more?
Aren’t the major spots already taken under long-term deals? What incremental revenue will there be?
What is the “etc” revenue? Can you name something other than incremental TV viewership? How much incremental TV viewership do you need to earn $20mm more?
{ROLLEYES}
to answer olneys question about the mets
with santana: johan will and it will definitely be enough to win the division.
without santana: whoever is healthy and the division will be the phillies’ to lose.
I agree.
Matt’s saying that Johann solves the problem doesn’t answer Olney’s question. At this point, it’s anybody’s guess whether he’ll stay with the Twins, go to the Yanks- BoSox-Mets, or go to some other dark horse team (remember, nobody was seeing the Tigers in the mix for Cabrera or Willis, much less both of them). In my mind, getting him is still a long shot. So, how would you answer Olney’s question if we don’t?
please guys why do overate the phillies so much on this site.. we act like were scared of them.we lost the division to nat and marlins at the end… and the phils took advantage of that with a timely hot streak and flamed out quick in the playoffs.next pat burrell will never have a second half like that again they lost aaron rowand,brad lidge will give up a ton of homers and saves in the philly bandbox…and im still waiting for jroll to to put up those ridiculous numbers because he was never even close to that good before and we nor the phils have any reason to expect him to.i could keep going and going but heres to a rebound year from delgado and 120 games out of alou and the division…
I don’t understand why everyone thinks Santana would be the great equalizer, but then says the team is fine without him. Either they need a big gun to try to overtake the Phillies (and Braves) or they don’t. Do people really think THIS team is a 90 game winner without Santana? ‘ Cause that’s instanity.
it was an 88 game winner without him last year and if we only need two more wins for the division they can keep johan but although im not entirely for the trade in the long run it may take more than an extra two games with how we get killed every year in interleague while the phils get to play the royals and the other bottom of the al teams
88 wins last year.
PLUSES:
– Full year of Pedro, instead of only 5 games, is better than a full year of Glavine last year.
– #5 starter this year can’t be any worse than #5s were last year.
– Sanchez is back; Mota/Sele are gone. Pen is better.
– Castillo is an upgrade over Valentin/Easley at 2B.
– Church is an upgrade over Shawn Green in RF.
NEUTRALS:
– Delgado can’t get worse — maybe he’s Comeback POTY?
– Schneider is a wash vs LoDuca 2007 edition.
– Reyes, Wright & Beltran probably don’t change much.
– Alou missed half of 2007, probably can’t get worse.
– Maine & Perez may not repeat, but they may.
MINUSES:
– #4 starter (Duque 2008 vs Duque 2007) is a downgrade.
– With no real backup 1B, Delgado is there no matter what.
So, unless the current top 3 starters crash, or Pelfrey flops, this team is as good as last year if not better. If Willie gets better w/the pen, that alone could make 2 or 3 games’ difference.
my thoughts exactly
“If the Mets get Johan Santana, all else is irrelevant”
This is such obvious b******t, that it’s a wonder that the writer could have even pulled off saying the words, let alone writing them.
Church will have a better year then Milledge.
I’ll take that bet for one.. and two.. that’s not the point.. Milledge could of brought in many players who will better years then them to use your arguement…
And he did not
i agree, and extrawhitemeat, you once again disagree just for the sake of being contentious. You consistently make contradicting points and somehow you make both arguments sound poor.
Please tell me who Omar could HAVE (not of) gotten for Milledge, because you seem to know. Keeping him was one option but he decided to sell and we don’t know yet if he is a player in decline… the point is: what three players do you think were coming here for Milledge? Not naming anyone specifically is what I expect, you have no knowledge and I am sure you will disagree again with nothing to back it up.
How am I being contradictory? And I’m entitled to my opinion, just cause I don’t drink the mets kool aid…
I am a little ashamed of myself that I’m even allowing myself to argue the point that Ryan Church will be included in a deal for Santana, if you want to fault me for anything, it’s allowing myslef to believe the latest rumor on the internet, when the 50 before this one led us nowhhere..
But since I’m in too deep… I will once again tell you I’m not pretending to know who was out there for Milledge.. but if Ryan Church and Brian Schneider are the best there was, then you don’t make the deal… period…
Keith Law who is quoted weekly on this site called it a “serious mis management of assets” and in his chat TODAY called Ryan Church a ” fourth outfielder who’s spent a lot of time in the trainer’s room.”
Read ANY article you want on the off season, it is listed as one of the worst of the off season….
So the original post said that trade becomes a good one because Chruch is one of 4 or 5 guys who nets us Santana..
And my answer was no it doesn’t…. because we could of gotten players better then Church or Milledge.. or someone the Twins like better..
So grow up dude, I’m allowed to my opinion.. not my fault if you can’t understand it, or refuse to believe anything that the Mets want you too.
Here is the EXACT Keith Law Quote since I have “nothing to back it up” as you say:
“The only way this deal doesn’t turn out to be a disaster for the Mets — second in this decade only to the Victor Zambrano-Scott Kazmir deal — is if Milledge doesn’t pan out as a hitter, and the smart money is that he will. This is a heist for Washington, and a serious mismanagement of assets for the Mets.”
So there ya go.. my OPINION was that incuding Church in a deal for Santna, which is going to be built around guys like F-mart and Guerra anyway, doesn’t undo the one-sidedness of this trade…
That’s all I said… and again my apologies if you can’t understand it, or refuse to try and believe it.
I think the main component in the milledge deal was bringing in a defensive minded catcher who kept a pitching staff of unknowns in Washington at a reasonable level. Schneider has been given a lot of credit for the way he handles pitchers and calls games. If his defense and pitch selection helps out all of our pitchers lower their era than thats fine with me, everyone wants 20-30 HR guys at every position and they don’t think about how a great defense makes every pitcher better. Milledge’s value was dropping and was much lower than last year so Omar pulled the trigger on what he felt was a good trade to help the overall defense of this team. Milledge was horrid in the OF trying to catch easy flyballs and was a head case, church might not put up the numbers offensively that milledge might have but his defense will be solid. There’s no way to say if we kept Milledge that he would have grown into his potential. What if his value keeps going down and we ended up with nothing for him aka Victor Diaz!
isn’t that Keith Law backing up his own opinion?
I still think that deal is going to be a steal, but not for Washington, because I don’t think Milledge is going to amount to anything. And if his trade value was so great, where are the other teams that were clamoring for him? Oh, wait there weren’t any….
The time to trade Milledge was 2005 when he could have gotten us Manny Ramirez. People want to keep making the Gary Sheffield comparisons when it comes to Milledge, I highly doubt he’s even going to come close.