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MetsBlog reader, Brian, recently sent in the following email question…
“Any idea what Carlos Beltran’s numbers were the last two season after the 6th inning? I love him, but am afraid he is not clutch?”
…it’s odd, every so often this subject comes up and i don’t know if its because we still have this everlasting image of the 2006 season ending with beltran’s bat sticking to his shoulder with bases loaded or if Mets fans still have this feeling that beltran should be better than he is…
As you can see below, Beltran, from the seventh inning on, has been consistent with his run production over the past two years. In fact, his production is right in line with his career averages…
|
2006 |
7+ Inning |
2007 |
|
159 |
AB |
163 |
|
11 |
HR |
10 |
|
28 |
RBI |
36 |
|
39 |
K |
35 |
|
.283 |
AVG |
.270 |
|
.953 |
OPS |
.933 |
In addition to Beltran’s numbers from the seventh inning and later, here are his ‘clutch’ statistics (late and close and two out, runner in scoring position) from the past two seasons…
|
2006 |
Late & Close |
2007 |
|
77 |
AB |
57 |
|
4 |
HR |
1 |
|
15 |
RBI |
9 |
|
22 |
K |
16 |
|
.299 |
AVG |
.175 |
|
.943 |
OPS |
.627 |
‘Close and late’ is a player’s results in the seventh inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run on deck.
|
2006 |
2 Outs, RISP |
2007 |
|
42 |
AB |
67 |
|
5 |
HR |
3 |
|
28 |
RBI |
19 |
|
13 |
K |
19 |
|
.310 |
AVG |
.224 |
|
1.180 |
OPS |
.751 |
…even with those stats, it’s difficult to determine if beltran is or isn’t a clutch performer…i mean, we all have an idea of what ‘clutch’ is, but each of us define it differently…to some, clutch is exactly what those numbers represent, but to others, hitting a 1-2 pitch for an opposite field single to move a runner from first-to-third may be their definition of clutch…
…yes, you can look at those numbers and come to the conclusion that in 2007 beltran wasn’t as ‘clutch’ as he was in 2006, but in reality, i don’t think clutch can be defined by a players performance in late-innning situations, each situation is different and a key hit in the first inning that results in the game-winning run is just as clutch as one in bottom of the ninth…
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In conclusion: Beltran sucks when it matters most.
BTW, Matt, you really should use a different picture of Beltran from time to time.
And if we’re talking Clutch, how about the hill catch in Houston? That is Clutch. As were the two days in a row of smashing into the Center field fence last year.
And in September when everything was falling apart, he hit .282 with 8 homeruns and 27 RBIs in 28 games. Not too shabby.
the guy is a streaky hitter period! when he’s on he hits everything in any situation and when he’s off he looks clueless. i don’t think the guy gets rattled in any situation and if he’s swinging well he’s extremely clutch. its amazing how many mets fans bitch about this guy. with the exception of his 1st year he’s been worth every penny. we bitch how the wilpons never spend then they go out and spend on beltran and now met fans hang that contract over beltrans head and cut the guy zero slack its pathetic. can we just support the guys wearing our jersey and not act like the fake ass yankee fans out there. who cares how much a guy is makin as long as he’s helpin us win ballgames. besides the wilpons are paying him not us fans so enough
Let me see if I can simplify it for you then, .224 with 2 out and RISP is NOT clutch. Nor is a .175 close and late. Beltran’s numbers in 06 were very good while in 07 he was horrible!!!
Which perfectly illustrates the point that “clutch” stats fluctuate a whole lot from year to year, and there’s just not much that can be drawn from it.
how often did beltran hit a double or triple with a guy on 1st who scored in the late innings? with 2 outs? solo hr or hr with a guy on 1st? with 2 outs?
those are very clutch, but are not addressed in the stats.
Well I can see the Beltran haters have awoken from their off season slumber to grace this thread with their baseball knowledge.
But then again, any SANE baseball fan knows conclusions cannot be drawn from 67 At Bats.
Keep hating our all star, gold glove CF, don’t let reality stop you.
Haha…well said. We have the best centerfielder in NY, the National League and in the history of our franchise. Enjoy it while it lasts…
Beltran has not, is not, and will not be a problem on this team, as presently constructed. What we get/don’t get out of RF, 1B and our bullpen, particularly middle relief, will be what defines this team’s success.
Mike, you can’t look at his numbers in a vacuum…Comparing his performance against the league avg. would put things in perspective…If the league avg. with 2 outs and RISP is .200, than certainly .224 is above average, and ‘clutch’.
Eitherway, it is a small sample size-just over 10% of his AB’s per season…That explains the great fluctuations we see between ‘06 and ‘07. One more or one less hit makes a big difference…It may carry more weight if you were able to look at his performance in these scenarios during his career as a whole, because then you would have a viable sample set.
I see this analysis as inconclusive.
I wasn’t trying to compare his stats against the rest of the league. Just merely stating my opinion that those stats and the overall opinion of being a clutch player should not be defined by those situations alone.
It doesn’t look good, but decontextualized these stats mean nothing. What is the average of the rest of the team in the same situations? The rest of the league?
How many times does it need to be proven that these “clutchness” stats like “close-and-late” and “2 outs, RISP” are bunk? Every player who accumulates enough career at bats in those situations eventually winds up with stats very similar to their overall career performance.
This doesn’t truly measure whether he is clutch or not. We have no stat for how he has protected whoever is in the lineup ahead of him and what about the games he has saved with his glove?
Looking at those charts, Beltran was more clutch in 2006 than last year…look what happened to the team:
2006 97-65, best record in MLB, made it to Game 7 of NLCS
2007 88-74 one of the great collapses in sports history
tsk tsk I;d be interested in seeing the other players on the team as well, in both 2006 and 2007 to compare
I’m pretty sure yahoo sports & ESPN have those stats listed for each player. I’d post them but it would be kind of tedious.
Not to mention that sometimes the “clutch” AB comes in the 2nd inning when he works the pitcher and comes up with a 2 out double that extends the inning for Alou/Delgado.
if you’ve seen beltran is the playoffs. when it matters most. he is one of the best of all-time:
#1 ops in the history of mlb
#2 slugging in the history of mlb
#6 on-base % in the history of mlb
if you don’t think he’s clutch: you’re not that bright
baseball-reference.com/postseason/leaders_career_bat.shtml
Except for that one time against the Cardinals.
gm 1 when his hr was the only run in a 1-0 win?
gm 4 when he had 4r 2hr 2 rbi (on base all 5 times for a mets win?
oh. you mean the one ab. that’s how mlb works!
here: $$$$ buy a clue.
My fault, he is Mr. Clutch. I’ll just erase the memory of him striking out looking from my brain.
i would like to see the stats for how many times he K’s looking w/ RISP. personally i think he is not clutch and a bit of a primadonna, ohhh no i don’t to give a curtin call to fans who have booed me before. get out.
no. beltran is a delicate flower.
It’s hard to gauge whether a player is clutch, esp by looking at that data. I tend to agree with Matt at the differing opinions of what the word clutch essentially means.
Those stats don’t take into account the situational variances.
Some people tend to treat him like ARod because of his contract. Is he overpaid? Yes. Is he the best CFer in the game? Again, yes.
Beltran is a great player, a great and ESSENTIAL part of this team, and I love the fact that he roams the center of Shea for the Mets. He’s very talented, and capable of carrying a team on his back for stretches at a time.
Is he clutch? Ask any Astro fan that… They’d call any Met fan that even broached the subject idiotic, ignorant, and stupid… and I wouldn’t disagree.
Well, obviously he was clutch in 2006, and somehow lost his clutchness in the off season?
Or maybe the outcome of that small a number of ABs is really somewhat random from year to year?
I agree that over time, for most players, their stats will end up close to their overall stats in these catagories. And having performed in the post season is a good indicator too (1 AB not withstanding).
He was “pressing” because everybody in the lineup were having their issues from time to time except for DWright, plus that mole on his head was diverting much needed blood meant for his brain.
Repeat after me: “There is no such thing as clutch. There is no such thing as clutch. There is no such thing as clutch.”
Seriously people.
I just read some of the other comments on here. Good god people, learn some math!
“Let me see if I can simplify it for you then, .224 with 2 out and RISP is NOT clutch. Nor is a .175 close and late. Beltran’s numbers in 06 were very good while in 07 he was horrible!!!”
We are talking about 57 and 67 at bats respectively. Talk about a small sample size. .224 means he had 15 hits I think? If he had 20 hits he is batting .298 over the same period.
5 hits is one or two bad/good games. You can not draw a conclusion over such a small sample size. The difference between 2007 and 2006 is better explained by random variation then anything else.
Well I agree with Mike Nichols that simply comparing lifetime situational stats with his overall career stats is not a good way to define clutch and that each person does define it a little differently. What that fails to do is properly value times when a late inning close-and-late RBI is more important than at other times — like a game in September during a pennant race vs. one in April. Further, I think most people would agree that postseason performance, where it exists, is a good indicator of clutchness.
Having said that, it is interesting to note that Beltran’s lifetime OPS for many so called “clutch” situations is higher than his overall numbers. That includes hitting with Runners On, RISP, RISP w-2 outs, bases loaded, Men on 2-outs, and Man on 3rd <2 outs. It is also interesting to note that in both years he appeared in the postseason, his OPS was higher than his career OPS. So no matter how you define clutch, it’s hard to say Beltran is not clutch. However, I think it would be valuable to see him over a few more postseasons and stretch drives in order to make a more definitive judgment. But so far, so good.
if Beltran is what people are complaining about, then as fans, we have some serious problems…
The yahoos calling to trade everyone in the farm for J. Santana are the same people who will destroy him if he ever got here. As soon as the Mets sign or trade for a guy with a bloated contract they become a target, right or wrong. Beltran is streaky and when he is going bad he is hard to watch. When he is going good he is absolutly lights out, and clutch. Get off the one at bat in the NLCS game. Chances are if theMets maned-up and got their sorry a$$es in theplayoffs #15 would have redeemed himself.
By the way…..what happened to all the Eli bashers? Same PITA’s as the Beltran bashers. Trade Jose because he had a bad month. Mike Piazza haters, same fans.
I love these discussions. These are the type that bring out the reasonable Mets fans that weren’t sleeping in their high school statistics classes. Yes, this sample is entirely to small! Comparing his stats to the league average was a good suggestion. Or maybe we can compare his “clutch” stats for the three years he’s been a Met or why not his career?
May I suggest those Beltran haters compare his overall stats to that of the league average before booing him.