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In a post to the outstanding Baseball Musings, 
David Pinto takes a statistical look at the Mets offense, plugs in numbers to some fancy calculator, and predicts…
“New York remains a good offense. The interesting thing is that David Wright emerges as the only offensive superstar on the team. Every one else, with the exception of Brian Schneider, puts up good numbers…If the Mets want to move up offensively, however, they need Beltran or Delgado to perform at their highest levels…That would give the team a lot more oomph behind Wright.”
Beltran hit 41 HRs 2 years ago and 31 last year. He also steals over 20 bases, and led the team in RBI’s in 06.
How many runs does reyes score?
I think if Beltran stays healthy he could have a year like he did 2 seasons ago. If Delgado get his timing back, the same could happen.
If those guys get into full stride, the offense could be a powerhouse. As long as Reyes realizes that he is lead off man, then the Mets will score plenty of runs. Even enough to give Livan 12-13 wins.
I hope the Santana Saga ends soon. I check this website way too much. It is actually holding me back from purchasing weekend season passes.
I’m in the same boat. I check rumor sites every 5 minutes. I cant take it anymore. I bet my friend that santana would be a met by next friday. Minnesota has to make a friggin decision soon.
I already bought weekend tickets ha..
What’s the benefit of buying the weekend passes over buying them individually?
I cringe to watch how many times Schneider/Pitcher squelch rallies.
I keep dreaming about Rey Ordonez and despite he had a golden glove his bat was made of paper.
Schneider at best will be the second coming of Rey Ordonez. It makes be nervous and nauseated to think about it.
Lo Duca in a down year had .30 points on him in average.
Ugggg. I think I just thew up in my mouth.
why does everyone care about batting average so much? Most overrated statistic ever! Enough with it. Brian Schneider had a high OBP last year then Lo Duca, that means a lot more for a #8 hitter then batting average does. A hell of a lot more. And to add to that, Schneider will get on base no matter what, Lo Duca depends on his batting average, which is scary, because he sucks now. Either way, let’s be upset because we don’t have an all-star bat batting 8th!
he’s a catcher. it’s expected. we got lucky that we had a catcher that wasn’t a black hole.
oh, and by the way, schneider’s OBP was higher than lo duca’s last year. so i’d say paulie squelched more rallies than schneider did.
not to mention talent to not strike out, but hit into a double play instead!
BA isn’t everything. Lo Duca was just as bad a hitter as Schneider last year, and he’s likely to keep getting worse fast since he’s 36 years old. I don’t love Schneider, but catchers who can hit are the exception, not the rule.
I would guess that the Mets plan to use Schneider and Castro in a relatively standard platoon. Schneider is decent (not phenomenal) against righties, and Castro should rake against lefties. And as for the 8-9 hitters squelching rallies, we could be adding two of the best hitting pitchers in the majors (in LIvian and *knocks on wood* Santana).
Perhaps it’s just a consolation prize, but I’m pretty sure that Schneider will outdo even Ordonez’s best year in both OBP and SLG, which matter far more than BA.
Didn’t Lo Duca hurt his knee a few days a go at a Gym here? Its serious enough where he needs to get a MRI. There is a chance he will miss a good deal of time.
catcher is a position where I can live with a defensive guy who handles the pitching staff well.
I also don’t know why people liked lo duca so much. He was a single hitter who drove in a few runs a month. He didn’t score either because the pitcher, or millidge (also overrated) batted behind him
And Schneider still got on base at a higher clip.
That is why people who matter in baseball started using this category called on base percentage a long time ago. But keep evaluating guys on average. What are u going to tell me next, Juan Pierre is an all star?
All of a sudden Reyes is an afterthought? The MVP of the first half last season. Lots if question marks in the lineup, but come on, IF Alou can stay healthy the Mets have the best lineup in the NL.
I agree, if everyone stays healthy the Mets are an offensive juggernaut. Beltran Alou and Delgado are the keys to the Mets success this season. Wright and Reyes are going to get better each season.
I didn’t know they gave out 1/2 season awards, but I guess you have to hang your hat on something. You can also put his LVP (Least valuable player) award for the 2nd half of last year on your empty 2007 award mantle.
Ill take a .270 BA and 30 HR’s each from Beltran and Delgado.
Beltran is every bit as good if not better then David Wright. beltran is 31, still in his prime baby. Mets take the division by 6 games easy.
No, Beltran is not better than Wright.
Beltran is a good hitter but david is better
I completely agree Beltran is a very good player lucky for me I have been at games where he has done amazing in cf and at the bat. I remember in the 06 season Beltran was at bat hit Homerun then Wright got to bat like right after Delgado and shoots one out of the ball park it was a amazing moment for all the Mets fan that were at the game. I think Beltran and Wright are two players that makes the Mets a team that just works so great together. But my guess is since David is so hott right now he will be even hotter at Beltrans age. And lets all hope he is still playing for the Mets. He said he would love to play his hole career with the Mets and I can totally see it happening. After all Jeter has played for the Scum Yanks his hole career and you don’t see them giving him up any time soon.
Its extremely naive to just say LoDuca’s average is 30 points higher and therefore the Mets will severe big time. If you look at the run production they are even. And once again don’t forget about the defense which doesn’t show up in any of the sexy stats but makes a huge difference. Get over the catching situation already.
Also, I like that Schneider is lefty, gives a better balance with Shrek!
well, schneider’s wife is pretty hot, so…
Why is Beltran not considered an offensive superstar?
Yeah, I’m wondering the same thing. Ditto for Reyes, even including his September. These guys hit at Shea Stadium, but apparently hitting 30 HR, driving in 100 runs, scoring 100 runs, and stealing 80 bases aren’t “superstar” numbers. And they aren’t depending on how you want to define the vague term “superstar.”
people still stuck in the roid paradigm… we’re going to have to get used to “superstars” with much lower HR totals over the next few years….
and the biggest off season move is. . .Livan Hernandez :(
this team is a joke.
big collapse, still raise tix prices, JOKE! JOKE! JOKE!
trade the PROSPECTS for the best pitcher in BASEBALL!
i really dont get it.
does omar no baseball?
all the great teams have an amazing stop ace,
who do we have? JOKE JOKE JOKE
I saw your comments on the johan post……..you said that if we dont get santana you will be rooting for the skankees……..but yet your a “die hard” met Fan? Youre the Joke Here.
Crybabies like you are a joke. You sound like yankee fans who think they are entitled to the best player at every position. Why dont you go root for the team in the bronx. Calling The mets a joke on this site shows exactly what kind of fair weather fan you are. Dry up and blow away.
Thank you Gil the Phil I agree they do from the very start sound like a scum bag Yankee fan!
You’re a front-running idiot. Go wear your Yankee hat, the colors match almost any outfit anyway.
It’s the return of mistermet aka firemetsmanagement. Where’ve you been troll? Checking out Skankee Stadium. Do you KNOW baseball? You really don’t get it, do you? (These are rhetorical questions, no need to reply). Tnx tool.
WOW ugbmets21 are you seriously kidding me? Are you really a Mets fan or are you even a baseball fan? I think like you said you really dont get it? Dont worry keep telling yourself that! The Mets are never have been or never will be a joke! Yes we choked at the end of the season but for God sakes move on everybody else has! We are ready for a hole new season with some of the great players that really make this team. You have no faith in your team if your really a fan do us all a favor and go find a team that needs a downer like you cause thats all you are if your going to call the Mets a Joke!
alou will be on the extended DL by June (it was may last year). greybeard delgado and drite will be slumpilicious. beltran will be delicate. reyes will excel. bottom line=not enough bat production. omar slept through arod and miggy. big mistake. santana wont be enough.
3RD PLACE
I will continue to post this until someone can even TRY to prove this point.
The phillies lose Rowand and still have questionable pitching, but MAYBE are still better..i’ll admit it…
The braves are now better too? Lose Jones and Rentaria, add Glavine..
and your an even bigger idiot, add Santana and were still Third..
please prove your point, until then your just another troll
go root for the Yankees
we need people like these to talk bad about the mets it will keep metsblog alive . and will keep us chatting more lol
Whiz Kid you might want to think of a new name cause you obiviously don’t know anything about the Mets and our bat production!
Jose & Carlos B were definitely short changed if some writer calls them “good” offensively. Both are multi-tooled; only rollins & ramirez can try to match jose’s combination of offensive & defensive abilities as a SS. Actually Ramirez is more of a corner IF or OF; most agree Jeter sucks with the glove, doesnt steal and has less power than Jose. Carlos has battled injuries but still posts very good #’s.
Enough crying about Paulie Walnuts already. He sucks defensively & has no power. Schneider can help get the most out of the pitching staff and will drive in the same # of runs. If Paulie gets an additional 5 blooper singles per 100 AB it doesnt make up for his weaknesses.
Hopefully Santana doesnt have the impact of a Saberhagen, Viola, Zito, R.Johnson, K.Brown, etc ………………
since when are Beltran and Reyes not stars?
if we get Livan Hernandez, we are not getting Santana…mark my words!
agree
Maybe the whole Livan thing is a play by Omar to show the Twins that the Mets don’t “need” Santana,a nd to put the pressure back on them? If we don’t get Santana, then we have a decent innings eater for the back of our rotations and don’t have to rely on Pelfry turning the corner or Orlando staying healthy, and if we do end up with Johan, then if we already signed Livan, we have an extra starter, which is never a bad thing.
We shouldn’t question Omar until he is done dealing; we ended up with two gems (Maine and Perez) in his past deals, maybe he is a lot smarter than we are giving him credit for.
I honestly don’t think Livan hasn’t gotten anything to do with the Santana deal! They just want Livan to eat up innings and he would be a good pitcher for that but I still really hope when the Twins in the next ten days trade Santana he goes to us where we could use him! So don’t give up yet till its official!
just another excuse for omars lazines
Delgado is a POS and cannot be trusted to play a prominent role on this team.
By your name you have shown yourself to be seriously unwise. Delgado will bounce back and have a 130 OPS+ this year mark my words.
Do you think somebody that stupid even knows what OPS + means?
Now, let me see if I can follow all this highly sophisticated statistical analysis:
DW is a good hitter, but if Beltran and Delgado don’t hit, the Mets won’t score as many runs?
Wow, I wish I was smart like this!
Does he put these calculations in the obvious calculator?
I think that having D Wright and Beltran as our 3-4 for the entire year will increase our offensive capabilities quite a bit. Last year, once the two of them were solidified in their line up spots their production increased. now we just need to see if they can tear it up just as hard this year.
With all this mellow drama this offseason concerning Santana, the collapse, Omar & Willie, the Wilpons, etc. Isn’t nice that we have such a special player in David Wright that perhaps we should appreciate what we have instead of arguing what we could get? Oh by the way, I hate to contradict myself but GO GET SANTANA, theres my santana thread for the day.
DAY 412 OF THE METSBLOG HOSTAGE SITUATION:
Grown men clicking in every 5 seconds.
Week in and week out.
Same dribble; no real info.
On and on and on and on and on….
For the sake of all that is holy, man, set us free from this!
Freedom!
A few things…
Wright is the best hitter on the team. Hands down. No one is even close to him as far as the overall offensive threat he is. No one.
Reyes, Beltran, and Wright to me are all pretty exceptional offensive players. Delgado and Alou, at this point in their careers are not, but can be pretty good if they remain relatively healthy. The Mets offensive can be one of the best in the NL. Easily.
The Schneider whining is getting old. The Mets have been fortunate to have some pretty nice offensive catchers over the years, but have not had very good defensive catchers. Spoiled is all I can think of when certain Mets fans spout off on Schneider.
The biggest problem the Mets have on offense outside of Wright, is that all of their marquee offensive players are very streaky. That’s what kills them. It can be a very “all or nothing” kind of team when it comes to scoring runs and producing consistently.
Delgado, Reyes, and Beltran are beyond streaky. Reyes is such a volatile player that he is so very good when he’s right and just awful when he’s wrong. He will be the key to this Mets offense as long as he’s a Mets player.
Delgado just need to come to work from April to September instead of going on hiatus for 3 months and then coming back. He killed the middle of the lineup last season. Absolutely killed it.
I’m not really that worried about the offense though. It’s the pitching that can go either way as there are question marks are each spot in the rotation. I am in the minority for sure, but Santana is not going to make or break the Mets. I’ll pass on him until FA, if that’s still an option next year. If not, oh well.
The problem at the end of the year wasn’t the offense.Even though
Reyes was in a slump at the end the mets still scored enough to win,despite Delgados miserable year.
It is the Bull pen that is the key-If Sanchez comes back we can be in good shape.Now for that one starter.
I do agree the mets were offensively spoiled with Piazza at catcher but I’d rather have this team with a jerry Grote type catcher to make the staff better
JM
are you kidding me? Santana will make or break the mets… period
GO GET HIM OMAR. btw your hair is getting gray.
Are you one of those fans that is bye polor cause didnt you just in one of your comments call the Mets a big joke and now you want Omar to get Santana ? Care to explain your postion on you being a Mets fan?
No, I’m not kidding.
The overreaction to this whole Santana sweepstakes is absurd. Santana doesn’t play in 162 games. He pitches 32-33 times per year.
Pitching is extremely important, but it’s better to be well balanced in the rotation. The money and prospects it will cost for Santana to be on the Mets starting this season is not worth it.
I have no problem with taking risks, but 6 or 7 years/150 million dollars and 4 or 5 prospects is too steep for a guy whose arm could fall off any minute. I am not talking about past health or current health either because he’s been healthy.
He is approaching 30, however, and for all of the constant criticisms about “small” pitchers and longevity, it’s funny how people forget that Santana is about 6′ 200lbs. He fits the mold of the modern day pitcher that can break down any minute.
I think way too much stock is being put in Santana. Way too much.
I tend to agree with ya, Big Al.
I been calling for Omar to start Plan B.
Because our starting rotation needs a 5th wheel and has huge question marks.
But I am attacked and slandered for not wanting to sell the farm and invest 150M in one guy.
One crack head told me to think before I post.
Exactly!
WTF?
Well. I agree with the both of you.
My concern is Delgado. I’m afraid that he will have a worse year this year than he did last year. What do we do if he continues to decline?
My Pedro Martinez 2008 season Prediction:
http://www.metsprospectus.blogspot.com/2008/01/2008-player-predictions-pedro-martinez.html
These are the questions to which the answers will determine the outcome of the 2008 season:
1. How good will Pedro be and for how long will he stay healthy?
2. Will Pelfrey step up and be the no. 3 or 4 starter that he can be in his first full season?
3. How many games will El Duque start?
4. Can Ryan Church duplicate his 2007?
5. Will Maine and Perez learn to pitch six effective innings each start?
6. If Livan is signed, can he be that anchor at the back of the rotation?
7. Will Alou play more than 100 games?
8. Will Delgado rebound or continue his decline?
9. Will Reyes get his head straightened out?
10. Will Duaner Sanchez be the setup man he was before taxi cabs and Dominican food in the Miami night?
11. Does Willie work the bullpen efficiently?
A lot of questions, a lot.
You can come up with questions like this for every team in the majors.
METSBLOG NEEDS A FORUM!
Yes, but, this is a blog for the METS. So, I think it’s more than appropriate to ask these questions, here.
Forums are for amatuer blogs, dude.
and Penthouse
My answers to your questions you posted above:
1) Pedro = 15-8 with 2 DL stints and 3.50 ERA
2) Pelfrey will spend most of year in AAA since we will have Santana and Livan and no space for him but he will be called up about 3 times to start for injured pitchers. He will have great year in AAA and start for us in 2009.
3) El Duque will be in the pen and spot start maybe 5 games unless they want to use Pelfrey from minors instead of messing up his schedule
4) Church wont be a Met by the spring because he will be dealt to Twins
5) Maine and Perez will have tremendous years and both will be locked up mid season by Omar to long term deals
6) Livan will be the Mets fifth starter and will be the 200 + innings eater we need ( I say 13-11 and 3.95 ERA)
7) Alou will play 90 games meaning whoever we keep of F-Mart or Gomez will get alot of work along with Endy Chavez (hope I am wrong)
8) Delgado will have very good year earning him a last big contract but with a AL club as a DH/1B
9) Reyes will have a tremendous season making us all forget his late season slump of 2007. Think .305, 25 HR, 95 RBI, 125 Runs, 75 SB and competing with Wright for NL MVP award.
10) Duaner Sanchez will compete for Comeback Player of the Year Award and will own the 8th inning spot by years end.
11) Willie will learn that the bullpen needs established roles and they will all get plenty of rest the days Santana, Perez, Maine, and Livan pitch proving that the Santana deal was worth it on many levels.
Overall Analysis: Mets win NL East with 98-64 record and go on to beat the RedSox in game six with Pedro getting the win in Fenway really pissing off Sox Nation. Wright edges Reyes in close MVP race. Santana goes 21-7 with 2.60 ERA and wins NL Cy Young. Randolph wins Manager of the Year Award and silences his critics. Minaya and Randolph get contract extensions. Mets sign Texiera to play 1B. Mets win World Series 3 straight years proving Santana was worth every prospect given up. Hank Steinbrenner spotted crying, chain smoking, and screaming “Daddy!” as he runs up and down the hallways of Yankee offices.
Wow. I think I fell asleep for a few minutes and dreamt this all up. Just having fun and some wishful, crazy thinking. But wouldnt this all be something if it came true?
LETS GO METS!
certainly rose colored glasses you have on.
But, there is not 1 individual item (maybe the3.95 era for Livan!) that couldn’t happen.
So, this could be the way it plays out.
I’m sure someone has probably brought this up by now but isnt this Delgado’s last year of his contract? To me this could be a really good or a really bad thing. Normally when a player is playing for his next contract he will try harder to put up great numbers which would benefit our team if he does. BUT some of these last year players press too hard and wind up having bad years (see Andruw Jones). My hope is that Delgado is able to put up great numbers in the hope of getting one last big contract. If he does I wouldnt want Omar to resign him though, but I could see him wanting to keep him if price is right. Next offseason the new debate on this blog will be should we pay out the butt for Texiera to play 1B or look elsewhere. I cant wait!
if this article is to be believed it will be “look elsewhere.”
realestalker.blogspot.com/2008/01/mark-teixeira.html
Typed in site you wrote gravedigger and get “page cant be found”. Can you sum up the jist of it for us please?
add the characters that you normally find to the left of the 3 w’s in your browser and you’ll get there, metsblog wouldn’t allow me to post the full address.
The gist is Texeira is rumored (no concrete evidence) to be buying a home in Atlanta. If you get to the site, you’ll get to see pics of Texeira’s current home which is on the market, as well as read some “dandy” comments below.
here’s the first paragraph:
SELLER: Mark Teixeira
LOCATION: King Fisher Drive, Westlake, TX
PRICE: $5,750,000
SIZE: 6,986 square feet, 4 bedrooms, 4 full and 4 half bathrooms
DESCRIPTION: Built in 2005 on 1.1 acres in the Vaquero Develop. Tuscan inspired home has a gracious dwnstrs master ste, & 3 bedrms upstairs & a gmrm. One of the many highlights of thi hm is the outside space consisting of cvrd terraces, fps, outdoor kit & a Zen like garden. Additionally there is a negative edge pool. There are frml & infrml din rms, great rm with a vaulted ceiling, a 2 story lib-off with a fp, several wet bars & a chef’s kitchen.
and this is the last paragraph including the “rumor:”
We hear from Mister Plum that Tex and Missus Tex have relocated to a suburb north of Atlanta, but we’ve yet to be able to identify any property they have purchased. Perhaps they’re waiting to unload this place before they take their next residential plunge. Whatever the case, Your Mama hopes with all our heart that they at least try to inject a little color into whatever big ass suburban mansion in a gated golf course community they buy next.