that lineup isnt realistic, probably no Texeira, probably not FMart and gomez, and Francisco Pena might not work out. plus who says humber and mulvey will work out, humber hasnt proved a thing yet and mulvey has upside but not much else. But defidently your lists are best case scenarios.

What makes you think we can get Santana and somehow keep Mulvey, Humber, Gomez, and FMart?

I believe magic00700magic was trying to convey the idea that the Yanks and Sox want that deal to happen as a trade, and not as a free agent signing next off-season. His lineup he listed in his post was a possible future Mets lineup based on keeping all our current prospects because we signed Santana as a free agent instead of acquiring him via trade.

There is no way that Castillo is a starting 2B in 2010. If he is above league average in 2008 I will be shocked.

You certainly may not be the only person who holds that belief, but I strongly disagree. If the Twins wait until the trade deadline, even if the Mets/Yanks/Red Sox need him to have a chance at overcoming the Phils/Braves/Red Sox/Yanks, the Twins won’t get nearly as much as they would get now because Santana will be 3 months away from free agency and would have no incentive to sign a contract in July when he can let a bidding war happen 3 months later? With that having been said, no team in their right mind would trade the same package for 7 years of Johan that they would trade for 3 months of Johan… yes, more teams might be involved in the bidding because they won’t have to pay him yet, but it’ll be at a far reduced price. Unless of course, Johan signs an extension in July… but that doesn’t seem likely right now. Bill Smith knows he needs to trade Johan soon or convince ownership to pony up some dough.

Plus, what if he gets hurt? Who’s going to trade for a hurt pitcher down the stretch? An injury is also on the mind of Johan. He wants to get traded before ST and eventually will have to make a stand soon. An injury could cost him a few millions. He’ll get a ton of money but not as much as he would get injury free.

I dont think the new ownership of the yankees cares that much about what the mets do anymore. that kind of thinking went out with george.

I agree with gowrightgo. The Yanks know (as does everyone in baseball) that the only teams with a real shot at Santana are them, the Mets, and the bosox. No other teams have shown interest.

Now, if the Yanks don’t want him, the best alternative for them is that he goes to the Mets. Sure, they would prefer him to go somewhere else, but they know that’s not going to happen. The only other alternative right now is Boston.

So floating the Mets as front-runners will only energize the Yanks if they really want him. Which it seems they don’t unless they can get him for a song.

The only other thing that would motivate the Yanks would be the bosox upping their package. And now there are rumors that they doing the opposite.

I disagree again to be honest — we are all assuming that the only player that the Twins are interested in from the Yanks is Phil Hughes. You guys don’t think it’s possible that the Twins are trying to get the Yanks to create a package of their best high-ceiling prospects (remember, they haven’t been drafting based on their slot like the Mets have, so they have guys like Austin Jackson to include in a trade, whereas the Mets farm system takes a HUGE hit after the big 4 of F-Mart, Gomez, Pelfrey, and Guerra). So lets say the Yanks don’t want Santana going to the Red Sox or the Mets, like I believe, but don’t want to give up Hughes… you guys honestly don’t think the Yanks can compete with the Mets package without giving up Hughes?

C’mon, I know we’re all Mets fans here, but lets be realistic for one second. You’re crazy to think that a package of Ian Kennedy along with Jackson, Tabata, and another high-ceiling Yankees farmhand isn’t better than the Mets package of Gomez, Guerra, Mulvey, and Humber. Absolutely crazy.

What I’m trying to say is that I agree that the Yanks won’t include Phil Hughes just to keep Santana from going to the Mets - to that end, Hughes is a Yank up until the second that the headline, “Red Sox-Twins agree in principle to a deal for Santana” appears on the bottomline. However, I don’t think the apple falls far from the tree — Hank doesn’t want Santana on the Mets — and if he can compete with the Mets’ package and not give up Hughes, I think he will.

Jeremy,

You still haven’t explained why the Yanks would be energized because they want to see Santana in Texas or Seattle. Would they bid higher to get those teams involved?

Of course it’s possible the Yanks could get Santana without offering Hughes. The question is: do they want to? The Yanks would have to pay at least another $10M in luxury tax on top of what they are already paying as the most expensive team in baseball. Plus maybe $25M for his salary. Is it worth it for them to pay another $35M/yr for one player plus give up many promising and cheap prospects for the privelege of keeping him from the Mets who will have little bearing on their pennant race?

This reminds me of when Omar was going after Beltran and ppl were saying the Yanks (who had shown little interest) were going to swoop in and top the Mets offer because they didn’t want the Mets to have him.

Crooked Numbers,

I think you misunderstood my point. Of course it would make literally zero sense for the Yankees to bid higher to get Seattle and Texas involved — if anything, that would further eliminate them from contention — my point is that Seattle and Texas have no chance at landing Johan because they can’t pay the contract, and when the price-tag on a guy is high, the only profits to be had are in big markets. So do I think it’s worth it financially for the Yankees to keep Johan Santana from Mets and Red Soxx, the answer is a resounding yes. In terms of the Red Sox, the answer is obvious, because as you correctly note, the Red Sox do have a bearing on the Yanks’ pennant race. In terms of the Mets, the better the Mets become, the less money there is to be made in the market for the Yankees because we share the same market. Even outside of personal vendettas that the Steinbrenners (whether it be George, Hank, Hal, or all of them), the Yankees DO have a vested interest in seeing Santana not go to the Mets, and since he CAN’T go to another team (like Seattle, Texas, and apparently the Angels if Rotoworld is right — they said the Twins tried to get LA involved recently but they wouldn’t bite), their best move might be to steal him at a reduced price, while keeping Hughes. I hope this clarifies my argument.

Jeremy
May I ask where the Yankees will lose money in the NY market if the Mets get Santana? Other than Santana jerseys, I’m not seeing where.

It’s exponential from a fan-base theory perspective. The better the Mets do (in a less competitive league, mind you), the more people in New York root for the Mets. The more people who root for the Mets, the more games people decide to attend at Shea/Citi Field instead of Yankee Stadium, the more hot dogs they buy at Shea, and the more Mets jerseys (not only Santana) these fans buy. One fan who decides that he’d prefer to root for a team that has a better chance at winning the NL (with Santana) than the Yanks have at winning the AL (without Santana) is an exponential increase in dollars for the Mets, and dollars away from the Yanks.

Excuse me, he or she. Plus the kids of the new fans. Etc.

Personally, I dont see Yankee fans turning around and going to Mets games just because they have Santana. Thats a rediculous comment. A very casual fan would be the only one who goes by who’s better and how many of those are out there? A hundred or two? That is not a big enough number to cause ny headaches for either team. Hot dogs? Jerseys? I think you over estimate their significance. The only increase in jerseys would be for the name Santana on back. People are going to buy jerseys and hats and t-shirts no matter who is on the teams. The Yankees will still out sell the Mets whichever team Santana goes on. The numbers will not be that significant for the Yankees. I doubt their revenues will drop at all. The Mets of course would show an increase, but nothing that would scare the Yankees.

Still not sold that Duque should be in the pen. He is also, when healthy, possibly their best SP.

Maybe Livan can go to the pen? He isn’t nearly as good as Duque at this point.

And, that should take care of the happy family feelings, if Livan shows up and bumps Duque to the pen!

Agreed. When El Duque was on the field his numbers were better than Perez/Maine/Glavine. Lower WHIP than all three and the same number of quality starts as Maine/Perez, but with much fewer appearances. He may not have the no-hitter upside that Maine/Perez have on any given day, but I don’t see El Duque imploding against the Marlins the last weekend like Ollie Perez. Maybe El Duque’s reliability makes him a nice fit for the pen, but he certainly doesn’t deserve to be there because of poor performance. And doesn’t El Duque take forever to get ready? Several hours of stretching and throwing and running and all that?