One thing I’ve always said is that everybody is overestimating the Twins desperation. I’ve always maintained that they aren’t a desperate team and that nothing they have said or done has given me any indication that they are desperate. I also have maintained that my reasoning has been that they were still a player in the sweepstakes and could still lock up Santana if they really wanted to. My take on the whole trade thing was that they were weighing ALL their options and would ultimately take the one that made the Twins a better team. My conclusion always was that in order for a team to land Santana, they would have to find a way to trade from their strengths to make the Twins a better team in 2008 and beyond without Santana, then the Twins are right now with him.

While I still see that as a basic truth, in light of everything that has happened since Friday morning, I no longer believe that is a complete truth. I think I’ve been putting the carriage before the horse.

Now, I believe it’s been the goal of Smith and Co. to lock up Santana all along and that a trade would only seriously be considered if keeping Santana beyond 2008 was no longer possible. I think it logically explains why everything has happened the way it has and why it has taken so long for the situation to get resolved. It also fits with a number of bits of info I’ve read from many of the key people involved.

I’ve also posted that I thought the Twins were using the Mets to up the Yankees’ and Sox’s offers. I don’t believe that is true any longer – though if it did happen and the Twins did wind up trading Santana, they would gladly accept more. I think the goal from the beginning has been to keep has many options open as possible and to do it for as long as possible. Keep listening to offers and keep everybody involved until you knew 100% for sure if a deal with Santana could be made or not.

The Twins locking up Santana would take a long time to pull off. First, Smith would have to sell the Pohlads on the idea, then they would have to start negotiating with Santana and his agent. There would have to be a lot of give and take on both sides and that would take time to play out. Team Santana would have to come to the conclusion that they probably won’t be able to get nearly as much as they thought they would – not now and not even after he was a free agent. And that’s if he stays healthy and has a great season. Waiting out the season would certainly have it’s risks as well.

On Friday the Twins announced they had extended Cuddyer and Morneau at the cost of 104 million dollars. Some have said the Twins have spent all their money and there was no more in the till to offer Santana. Others have said that they were just trying to save face for the inevitable departure of Santana. While both scenarios are certainly possible, I don’t think either are true.

If you are not a Twins fan, you can’t possibly understand what a huge precedent has just been set with those deals. These guys were both still tied to the Twins for a few more years. This is not the classic move of the Twins I have followed all these years. The Twins I’ve always rooted for would trade them off for prospects or let them walk, then pull out their empty pockets and shrug it off as the pitfalls of being a small market team.

This, in my mind, marks a clear cut change in the philosophy and approach of management. Pohlard’s son (and the Twins CEO) said as much when they announced the Morneau and Cuddyer deals. He made a comment about the efforts that the team would make to keep the homegrown core of players together in the future. In my mind, if anybody qualifies as part of a homegrown core of players, it would be Santana.

If the philosophy and approach of management has changed, then any established pattern of what the Twins would or wouldn’t do no longer applies. New rules are in effect and right now just about anything really is possible.

Since Friday, Hanky Panky announced that the Yanks were sticking with the kids. He also seemed quite miffed about it and implied in not so many words that Cashman’s job was at stake. Reading through it all, I get the feeling that he thinks he could of had the best player and and the best pitcher on his team and it has all just slipped though his fingers. At any rate, he’s mad and that has got to be a good thing for anybody who has never chanted 26 and counting, right?

Now, Len III announces that a deal will be announced by the end of the week. Kelly Thesier (she’s the MLB reporter who covers the Twins) has said the same thing in her Mailbag article at the Twins site on MLB.com. She also says that Smith won’t say if Santana is staying or going, much less who he would be going to if he is traded.

Thesier thinks that he will be traded and that the Mets will be the ones that nab him. While I agree that it is certainly possible providing there isn’t a mystery 4th team involved, I’m leaning toward the Twins keeping him.

My thinking is that the info is coming from Smith and the Twins. The deal is structured in such a way that the trade has to be agreed upon, then a separate extension has to be made with Santana by the team that gets him. In my mind, the team that gets him should be the ones to say anything to the press whoever that may be. At the very least it should be done jointly. What if the other team can’t make a deal and backs out at the last second?

The other thing that has me leaning toward the Twins locking him up is Livan. While a case can be made that if the Mets got Santana, they would still need Livan, I think a stronger case could be made for a Livan deal if a Santana trade was no longer possible.

While I’m leaning toward the Twins locking him up, I still think it could go either way. If the Twins do keep him, I don’t think it will be for lack of trying on Omar’s part or that he couldn’t put together a good enough package. I would see this completely as a Twins success and not a Mets failure. You have an excellent GM and he deserves every bit of praise and credit you can give. He gave it everything he had.

If it does go the other way, I believe with all my heart that Smith and the Twins management didn’t just let the guy go, they were right there until the bitter end trying to find that middle ground that Minnesota and Santana could both live with. In the end, they just couldn’t make it work and they had to let him go.

Now that we can all finally see the light at the end of the tunnel, I would like to say how much I appreciated Matt’s comments about checking in on the Twins sites (Len III’s in particular). I would also like to say how much I’ve enjoyed reading your thoughts and sharing my own with all of you at Metsblog. There are a lot of very knowledgeable and passionate baseball fans here. I certainly can’t say that about many of the Yankee and Sox sites I’ve been on.

Whatever happens, best of luck to you all and your beloved Mets.

–Sploorp

Santana is a MET

I won’t post PERIOD>

Anyone else heard this?

Yes World Series means more money but Santana does not mean World Series.

Winning team does not mean Extra money when you have a new stadium that is solds out for 3-5 years. The Mets might still win without Santana

Go back to school and learn business