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In a column for 
, Sunil Joshi takes a closer look Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra - the four prospects who were traded to the Twins for Johan Santana.
…added to by Jordan Zakarin…
…i spoke to Baseball Prospectus prospect guru Kevin Goldstein, who was just a week away from releasing his Mets Top 11 
Prospects List, to learn more about the players who will be leaving the Mets for Minnesota…
Kevin Goldstein: They’re giving up, like you say, four guys who were all among their top prospects. Then again, this is the Mets system we’re talking about, so their top prospects aren’t equal to other teams top prospects. There’s nobody on that list of four who is some kind of guaranteed stud — it’s a crazy great deal for New York.
Jordan Zakarin: Who will they miss the most of that lot?
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think any of them had any sort of immediate impact potential with the Mets, as Gomez was blocked. After that, guys like Humber and Mulvey had fill-in chances, but they just added a starter to their mix — a pretty good one at that.
Jordan Zakarin: Given that you have to do a new top 11, and will be looking at some of the lower level guys, what are the chances the mets can replenish this prospect depth in-house, from recent draftees or international signings?
Kevin Goldstein: It was a bad system before, and it’s obviously a much worse, borderline horrible system now. But that’s okay.
A minor league system serves two purposes: One, create talent for the big league team. Two, create talent to get other players for the big league team.
The system just filled purpose No. 2 quite well.
Jordan Zakarin: I think the darkhorse here was Deolis Guerra, in terms of potential, and fans not knowing so much about him. He probably has the highest ceiling of the pitchers traded. But, the Mets have recently been bragging about a strong low minor league, recently drafted corps of pitchers. Do you see any potential top prospects there, that could replenish the farm and make up for these losses?
Kevin Goldstein: Not really. Every system has high upside guys at the lower levels who COULD become top prospects, but few do, and I was argue that the Mets actually have far fewer of that type of player than most teams. I like Guerra plenty, but he was no sure thing, either.
Jordan Zakarin: How lucky are the Mets to have kept Fernando Martinez? It’s seemingly a dumb question, but basically I’m asking how good of a prospect is he, and are you surprised they got Santana without him?
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t like ‘lucky’, it’s just a good trade. I’m not surprise Martinez isn’t in the deal — I’m downright shocked. To me here’s clearly the Mets’ best prospect, and I have no idea how the Twins can make that trade without getting him.
Jordan Zakarin: I’ll let your scouting report coming out soon speak for itself, but do you think there’s a clear gulf between Martinez and Gomez, and do you think Minnesota may have chosen Gomez because he can play center field?
Kevin Goldstein: I think Gomez’s CF ability definitely plays into that. The have a wide open hole there right now that needs to be filled, so Gomez will compete with Jason Pridie and Denard Span.
Jordan Zakarin: Does Mike Pelfrey not being in the deal reflect more on the Mets still liking him, or baseball people elsewhere being down on him?
Kevin Goldstein: We don’t know that, unfortunately. We don’t know if he was offered, and we don’t know how the Twins feel about him. In general, from talking to other people in the industry, Pelfrey’s stock was pretty down after 2007.
Jordan Zakarin: Do people see him more as a reliever now, and do you think he can still crack the Mets rotation?
Kevin Goldstein: People are mixed on that question. He’ll be given a shot in spring training, but he’ll have to earn it.
Jordan Zakarin: Finally, how do you think this offer compares to the Red Sox offer, and do you have any idea how the Mets were able to pull this off?
Kevin Goldstein: I think what we’ve learned here is that we probably never really knew what the Red Sox offer was. Because what was rumored is a far greater package than this. Same goes for the Yankees.
…big thanks to kevin, who did this interview at the spur of the moment…i forward to your new Mets Top 11 Prospects List at Baseball Prospectus, which should be interesting…though this trade probably make your life a lot harder…
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Hey, have you guys heard? The Mets prospects suck, their system is horrible, and they could never match Yankee or Red Sox talent in a trade offer.
Pretty sad huh? Guess we’ll never be able to do anything with these prospects.
Oh wait….
guys the mets farm sucks and did suck before this trade
PLEASE DO NOT THINK THE METS HAD A BETTER PACKAGE THEN THE SOX OR YANKS BOTH OF THOSE TEAMS OFFERED NOTHING, BUT IF THEY HAD THEY HAD MORE TO OFFER THAN THE METS….AND THAT IS A FACT, STOP TRYING TO ARGUE IT.
BEST TRADE IN METS HISTORY EVEN IF SANTANA SUCKS CAUSE WE GAVE UP ABSOLUTELY NOTHING.
Doesn’t matter if it sucked, so long as it got us what we wanted in the end. Anything else is just hot air.
precisely. This is one of those situations where perception is more important than reality.
Bingo. And I, for one, will relish seeing Gomez, Humber and the like dog the Red Sox and Yankees for years to come. For the record, I can’t imagine anyone laughing off Gomez as a marginal prospect, and note that Goldstein didn’t say that — he merely said he wouldn’t contribute to the Mets immediately because he was “blocked” (by Beltran, at his natural position). . . .
I keep trying to tell people we paid a fair price, but can’t do it with a straight face. I wonder how much of our indivdual estimation of the guys we gave was inflated by the subconcious fear that we wouldn’t get Johan, but it was ok because we’d rather have these great prospects anyway. I said something like that (that I’d be ok either way), but now that it’s actually happening, I can’t believe how we made out.
What are the chances of this deal not going through, does anybody know?
It all depends on Santana, he can demand what he wants, but if they can’t come to an agreement, he goes back the AL and the Twins and will have to deal with everything all over again. I don’t think he is the kind of guy to turn down a 130M contract at 22M per year.
Not only that, but I doubt the Mets would let the deal fall through. If Santana refuses 6 years and threatens to go back to the AL, I’d bet the Mets would cave and throw in the 7th year. There’s no way they can afford to lose him now.
We MUST sign Santana… Now that the media and exprts have spoken, we would never be able to revisit this deal again…
We have to get it done!
i advise everyone to go to espn.com and read jayson stark’s RIDICULOUS chat going on right now. how is that guy paid?
don’t have time, what is he saying?
he is one upping every answer in absolute bad analysis. with nuggets, like this:
Jayson Stark: Of course not. I don’t forget ANYTHING. But it’s a good excuse to list the “big-name” players both teams lost:
METS – Tom Glavine, Shawn Green, Lastings Milledge, Paul Loduca and (ahem) Guillermo Mota.
PHILLIES – Rowand, Michael Bourn, Tadahito Iguchi, (ahem) Geoff Geary, (ahem) Freddy Garcia and (ahem) Jon Lieber.
Again, I’d say advantage Phillies. Victorino will be as good defensively in center as Rowand was. And I’d bet Jenkins/Werth will basically supply equivalent offense. And they’ll get more offense from Feliz, all that hacking notwithstanding, than they got from that platoon last year.
or this one:
“Lidge is tougher to figure. His stuff is still great. The guy struck out 31 percent of all the hitters he faced last year. Mariano Rivera was only at 25 percent.”
this is just bad baseball analysis. and the entire talk is this.
the ridiculousness is that he says that the Mets are the favorites then says:
He likes the phillies core of Rollins Howard and Utley better than Reyes Wright and Beltran.
He thinks that Hamels and Santana are comparable (in terms of wins) but that Meyers is better than Pedro just because he will likely pitch 60 more innings.
“The Phillies catch the ball better” – although he wrote that in the heading and didn’t answer any questions.
He basically said that the Mets are the favorites, but he likes the Phillies just as much (BIG surprise).
that part about ‘catching the ball better’ really got me…outside of third, who and where are the Phillies definsively better?
I agree jamie. Maybe a small upgrade defensively at 3B for the Phillies, but I think that the Mets are better at 2B (Castillo turns better), 1B (Howard is a disaster), RF (Church over Worth/Jenkins) and little/no difference at CF, SS, and LF (although I think Alou might be a little better and Endy is certainly a defensive upgrade when he plays). I don’t really know enough about either catcher to judge them. To me that makes it pretty hard to make the statement that the Phillies catch the ball better.
yea i dont get that, just go position by position:
C-schneider
1B-delgado by default
2b- castillo
SS- ill give it to rollins even though i think its a wash
3B- Feliz
LF- whoever we put out there bc burrell is a statue
CF- Beltran
RF- Church
oh yea and johan santana won the GG for AL pitchers so thats another 1 when hes out there.
little/no difference in CF? You’re joking. Beltran has the best CF range in the league, and a great arm. Victorino has decent range, but not as good of an arm. Beltran wins that no doubt.
Victorino has a rocket. Its close. I think Beltran’s better overall because he has reads the ball better, but Victorino is certainly faster – so the range is similar and so are the arms. In making an argument about overall team defense I don’t think you can give a huge checkmark either way on center.
yeah I vaguely recall seeing Victorino throw a runner out at third (from RF) that I thought would already be standing up and dusting himself off but was instead out by 3 steps. Little dude, big arm.
For example:
Cheez Whit (Philly): Reyes Wright Belran vs. Rollins Utley Howard?? I’ll take the Mets.
Jayson Stark: You could win a World Series with either one of them. But I disagree. I’ll take that Phillies group. Sorry.
I don’t think Stark is being absurd at all (Phillies DO have 2 MVPs in that group, Mets none). Mets have more speed, Phillies have more power / rbi’s. You can’t go wrong with either trio. (Personally, I’d go Reyes/Wright/Beltran but I’m a Mets fan)
In 5 years, when Wright and Reyes are in their primes and the Phillies group will be in decline, he won’t be saying that. But right now, It’s not totally out of the question to favor the Phillies core.
fair points
I just read it too, and it’s absurd.
Stark is a complete moron… What is he saying…
The most eye-opening aspect was that in his “preamble” he compared the Phils’ and Mets’ numbers WITHOUT MENTIONING THE RESPECTIVE BALLPARKS. When a questioner (immediately) pointed out that little shortcoming, Stark replied “it’s a fair point.”
Ya think?
It’s one thing if this was a generalist or fan, but he is paid by “BS”PN (quite a lot I’m sure) to think about and write about baseball ONLY. How you can compare Met and Phillie numbers without acknowleding the vastly different ballparks is beyond me. Ryan Howard would have fewer HR at Shea, but would still mash. Switch, say, Rollins and Reyes, though, and all of a sudden Jose is hitting 35 HR and winning MVPs, and Rollins is all but forgotten.
The guys schtick is the same as every other national journalist, minimize the negatives (of his argument) and accentuate the positive (his own argument)
I tried posting FOUR times that he conveniently left out that the Phillies line-up may have had 90 more walks, but they also had 220+ STRIKEOUTS
Ridiculous
It’s an us against the world kind of year
Suddenly everyone I know is trating me like a Yankees fan….Like Boston fans did to the Yankees before the Red Sox, ya know, basically became the Yankees.
I wonder if he’ll re-rank the Twins system as well, to include the 4 prospects. If he does, I think Twins fans will have Smith’s head.
Is it possible for the Twins to withdraw the trade before the Mets and Santana iron out a deal?
What happens if they wake up and they feel shafted and decide they would rather keep him for another year? Is it too late for that?
That is something I am VERY concerned with…
I don’t think it is possible.
The trade has been completed. It is now in the exclusive negotiating window and player physical stage of things.
If one of the Mets players “fail” their physical – I don’t think that kills the deal…the Mets would be able to subsititue an alternative prospect….the comish office gets involved at that point.
The only thing that can kill the trade now is Santana vetoing because he doesn’t like the contract the Mets offered.
And admit they made a mistake in the first place? IMO They (meaning Twins GM) would be fired on the spot.
For better or worse the decision has been made. No one is going to cheat or back out.
Nope. Deal’s officially agreed upon by BOTH teams. I’m sure they had to submit some kind of offer sheet to the commisioner’s office. No going back by either. The only person who can stop it, is Santana (not enough $$$).
I’m worried that Santana will refues to sign because he is miffed that he wasn’t worth more in trade. :-)
Did anyone else realize before yesterday that McIlvaine is one of the Twins top scouts????
Once a Met….thank you Joe, something tells me you played a major role in this and you should be welcomed back by Omar the second the Twins fire you.
It seems to me that the Twins made this deal at this time not because they are overvaluing the Mets’ prospects, but because Smith overplayed his hand and by this time the superior offers of the Yankees and Red Sox were off the table. And the Twins did not want to go into spring training with the Santana situation still unresolved.
Coupled with Santana himself threatening to use his no trade and walk away as a free agent if the deal wasn’t done by the end of yesterday.
But you read the press reaction and you think they’d have been better off with the first round picks! It’s ridiculous. Are they “can’t miss” prospects? No, but they could also be all-stars and not surprise anyone. Three solid — if not terrific — pitching prospects and a terrific five-tool OF (the power will come — especially in the dome.)
If I understand this correctly what the press is saying is that Minnesota has had and continues to have excellent scouting, but these same scouts that are so good at drafting players suddenly go blind when observing players in other organizations? Absurd. Perhaps they should take another look the haul Minny got for AJ Pierzynski. Time will tell.
i am really going to miss Mulvey, Guerra, Humber and Gomez, it hurts just thinking im not going to see them play again, b/c they are not going to make it to the majors and have a big impact, so welcome santana, im feeling many Cy-Youngs being presented at citi field and a lot of amazing games, plus you never know maybe finally a no-no
You have a chance to get one of the best pitchers in the game you have to give them 4 top(good) prospects. The minor leagues will be refreshed with new talent especially with 3 first round picks this year. I only hope that Omar gets the best available talent out of the picks and not worry to much about the cost of the player. We have to play like the Yankees and Redsox when it comes to the draft.
prospects are a big crapshoot any way
What will happen is that in the coming years the only way for the Mets to improve the team will be through free agency. Of course when you sign a free agent, it costs you a draft pick, which of course continues a cycle of a thin prospect pool for years to come.
I hope Freddy W realizes that the Mets payroll will be going nowhere but up if they want to continue to be competitive over the next decade.
He can always sell the team if the cost becomes overwhelming. I hear Mark Cuban is looking to get into baseball.
glavine made $13m last year so santana ($13m) replaces that in 2008.
the big question is what happens next year. delgado and alou represent $20m so santana’s salary hike doesn’t represent an increase in payroll.
do the mets take a step toward the red sox signing texeira or sabathia? or do they maintain the same $110-115m per year.
much depends on this year i’m guessing.
Also depends on what happens with OPerez. If Ollie gets $17m per…I doubt they play for Sheets or Sabathia. They will likely need a new 1b or LF whichever spot they don’t use FMART in.
short of a cy-young caliber year, I’d be shocked if Ollie got that much.
I think the team needs to turn its system upside down a bit.
Why are the prospects in the system so poor? How come guys we think are pretty lousy (Owens, Lidstrom, Bannister, Bell) turn out decent in other places? I am not asking why we traded them…I asking how come they are not even close to what we would call our better prospects and yet they are ML players where guys we rated highly are not? We rated Yusmiero Petit and Gaby Hernandez highly and they are not really anywhere with their careers.
What happened to Pelfrey and Humber? 2 top 1st rd picks that are really nowhere yet. I know Humber is Tommy john surgery and Pelfrey has not developed but why?
To sum it up…we either draft poorly or develop talent poorly. Whichever one it is …it needs to be rectified and like right away to take advantage of the window that Santana will provide
Easy — it’s both, and they go together. So, all of the Latin American scouting in the world means squat if you can’t develop the talent in the minors and winter leagues.
I guess. I hope they figure it out and commit to a program to do more with what they have.
I think the best managers should be littered in the system between low A ball and AA. Those few levels where fundamentals are taught and nurtured and pitches developed etc need the best we have to get more results out of them.
Where is Crash Davis to save our Nook Lalooche’s
I tend to think the issues are more on the development side. I think people want to kill the Mets for their actual draft choices, but I hesistate. As has been said in the past, Pelfrey was considered bar-none, the best pitcher in the draft when they took him. A guy like Mulvey wasn’t on anyone’s radar screen when he was drafted but looked good enough to drum up interest and eventually be a chip that brought us a significant player. Everyone criticized Joe Smith’s selection in the 3rd round, but he showed he was ML ready in less than a year. That’s not bad considered how much a Middle reliever who can potentially post an ERA under 4 can net in the open market.
The problem is the Mets rush their high-celiing prospects to the point of regression (Pelfrey) and they hold back their lower ceiling guys until they lose all possible value and usefulness (Humber, Bannister, Owens). Yes the system would be better if they drafted overslot more, looked in other international markets besides Latin America, but I think the money and attention really needs to spent on developing these kids, because as GWG mentions, far too many who are regarded lowly in our system, are experiencing success elsewhere and some farmhands we’ve acquired that had potential (Vargas, Ben Johnson) have flopped.
part of the reason I had no problem giving up our minor league pitchers is that we seemingly never develop them to their potential . (apologies to heilman and feliciano)
You have to be smart, the foundation of good organization is building a strong minor league system. The Yankees are finally beginning to figure that out. The Mets have to build up their system with the best talent possible so that the team can be good for many years. The answer is not only free agency.
Yes, but this was a unique opportunity. This was not another Glavine. This was a young ace. But you’re right that they should look at this as an exception, not the rule. Build from within is still the governing principle — or should be.
Here is my thought on the way it all went down.
Sure, the Red Sox and Yanks would love to have Santana….
The Yankees really would like to have him – but….in reality, the Red Sox, who have superior prospects and a deeper system would never allow the Yankees to acquire him.
However…..the Red Sox don’t really NEED him…..and would rather keep their deep farm system, and not need to sign him to a huge contract.
So I think both teams eventually realized that and backed down a bit and that left the Mets……
Omar saw what was happening and said on Tuesday…..heres our offer….you can take it, or leave it…….
Smith had no choice but to take it, because he didn’t want to go into the season w/ Santana on the roster….and lose him for nothing other than draft picks next offseason.
Anyone elses thoughts?
My thoughts are you are right. Its obvious that the others chose not to play in the derby for Santana.
I do not think it was about fighting it out with each other and raising their cost on prospects to too high a level. Plain and simple…..I think they did not see the value of the player in relation to the contract demand.
No doubt that Santana gets at least 5 yrs and $22M per plus his current $13M deal.
Yanks are over $210M in salary with like a $60M bite in revenue sharing and luxury taxes.
Boston is not quite that high but same idea…
It was simply too expensive to do for them so they backed off
What is the word on Angel Calero? He is a young lefty from Venezuela who pitched a no-hitter in short season rookie ball last year. I was wondering if he is on the Mets radar at all.
I could see a $10 million signing bonus
(added to this years salary) and
a six year extention averaging $22 million per year.
That totals $142 million guaranteed plus a vested option based on innings pitched for a seventh year in the $18-20 million range