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In Baseball America’s Top 10 Mets Prospects List from last November, Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber were ranked second, third, fourth and seventh.
…in other words, what was already considered a relatively weak farm system was weakened significantly…of 
course, a minor league system is there in part to help a team acquire star, big-league talent, and so no one will be writing this trade-off if Johan Santana can bring his dominance to the NL East…but, in order to continue to supply the team with young talent, or chips to acquire more veteran stars, the Mets will have to rebuild the farm…
With that in mind, here’s a revamped look at what the Mets Top 10 Prospect List might look like today, according to Baseball America’s Top 30, featured in their 2008 Prospect Handbook:
1. Fernando Martinez, OF
2. Eddie Kunz, RHP
3. Brant Rustich, RHP
4. Jon Niese, LHP
5. Nathan Vineyard, LHP
6. Bobby Parnell, RHP
…here’s where it gets interesting, and to be honest, difficult…
…over the last few months, i have talked with a variety of reporters and minor-league experts who have watched the Mets system rather closely…based on their input, and my own, here’s how i would rank the rest:
7. Scott Moviel, RHP
…drafted in the second round out of high school this past June he went 0-2 with a 3.38 ERA for the GCL Mets, tossing 40 innings and allowing 45 hits, but walking only 11 and striking out 37…he’s a power pitcher with a decent feel for his breaking stuff…his ceiling is considered to be among the highest of the Mets pitching prospects, and not just because he stands six foot eleven…
8. Joe Smith, RHP
…probably has a ceiling as a seventh or eighth inning guy, at best, but he spent basically no time in the minor leagues and still held his own for a long stretch in the bigs…he will be among the relievers looking to earn one of the last slots in the team’s major-league bullpen this spring…
9. Mike Carp, 1B
…after hitting 17 HR in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League as a 20-year old in 2006, this past season was a lost one for carp…he was decent early on for Double-A Binghamton, then hurt his hand, then struggled some more…of course, how much the hand injury has to do with those struggles remains to be seen, as those types of injuries are often the hardest for hitters to deal with, especially power hitters…he hit .251 for Binghamton, then .243 for Scottsdale of the Arizona Fall League…still, he was named to the league’s top prospect team…
10. Nick Carr, RHP
…another right handed pitcher, carr is a hard thrower with a violent motion…the 21-year old made 14 starts for Brooklyn in 2007, putting together a 5-2 record with a 3.80 ERA…he struck out 74 hitters in 66.1 innings, holding hitters to a .224 average…there’s some question as to whether he will be able to stay a starter, but for now it’s all systems go as he makes his full season debut in either Savannah or St. Lucie…
…i’m not sure how they kept Fernando Martinez, but the farm would be that much more barren without him… that’s not to say that they can’t improve the situation, though, with a strong crop of arms in the last two drafts, a strong group of latin imports the past two years, and three first round picks this june…
Baseball America is now shipping its 2008 Prospect Handbook, which has their definitive answer as they include the Mets’ top 30 prospects, so this is mostly my own analysis.
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I hope we cash in big on our 3 first rounders this year….’cause that top list looks pretty bare…
A friend of mine faced Kunz in the minors. Said he is terrible. Looks correct with his e.r.a.
What ever happened to Tony Pena’s son? I remember when we signed him that he was the biggest catching prospect to come of the Dominican in a long time. Also, it was a huge deal that we lured him away from the Yankees, where his father is a coach.
Any word on him?
I remember he did horribly last year, barely hitting over .200 in low A.
He struggle in low A ball this year in Savannah .210/5/30 in 367 abs
All I know is we better pay above the slot more than ever this year.
On a related note…does anybody know where the Mets AAA team will be playing in 08? Last spring there were rumors that they might be relocating to Syracuse, but lately the chatter (including Chuck Schumer) suggests that it might not happen until 09, after Toronto’s contract with Syracuse expires.
well Syracuse’s contract with Toronto would have to be up after the 2008 season for the Mets to be an option there. I believe that all minor league affiliate deals are two or four years and run the same two year cycles. So they should both end after 2008 season.
There likely wont be anything public about this until after the AAA season ends, just like the end with Norfolk.
Posts like this.
This is why Metsblog is Metsblog, and everyone else just can’t compare . It’s FORWARD thinking posts like this.
While ESPN is trying to breakdown the Johan trade with a BS analysis of the winners and losers with pretty bar charts sponsored by Budweiser.
While Peter Gammons gives his elementary yet ‘profound insider’ analysis all while hiding the fact that his Sox crapped the bed on this deal.
While Rob Neyer is projecting Johan Santanna’s 2008 win shares and 50 other meaningless statistical acronyms that proves that perhaps he is still a virgin..
While Mike Francessa denies his incompetence, continues to make the case for the Yankees being the kings of NY, and simply continues to get fatter.
While Chris Russo abuses facts and the proper pronounciations of the english language.
Metsblog is thinking….What next?
Awesome job, Matt and Co.
Mike and the Mad Dog has not talked about the trade all day. (5:10 when posted)just in the beginning when Mad Dog said they better sign him or it will be worse than the collapse. They always spin a negative on anything the Mets do.
Move to SF mad dog!
Rob Neyer…still a virgin.
Priceless!
What about Pena? When we signed him a few years back it was a huge deal. How is he progressing and where does he rank within our system?
He was horrible last year, which is probably why he didn’t crack the top 10. He was in low A and hit .210 in 367 at bats with 5 home runs and 76K’s.
Keep in mind he was only 17, which is a junior or senior in high school. Not everyone is the hitting machine
After Santana puts on number 57, I would like a post or 2 on whats up for the draft… whos in it.. what pics we have.. mock draft etc…. exciting time for Met Fan.
I still count Mike Pelfrey as a top prospect at this point, he isn’t exactly an established major league pitcher yet.
Also, the Mets got 2 high draft picks for losing Glavine, we don’t know who those guys will be yet but they’ll help offset the price we paid for Santana.
Funny how much can change in one day. Yesterday, reading a post like this, or K. Goldstein’s ‘borderline horrible’ comment from the prior post, would have sent me spiraling into depression. The ‘Mets, Prospects’ entry in my cranial rolodex is full of recriminations and lamentations, in fact, about Omar’s (and the prior administrations’) neglect of the farm system, use of draft slotting, etc. etc.
Now, that all seems so…. well….. so 2007. We all have our opinions on the “bird in hand” debate with respect to young talent. But Johan is one big freakin’ bird.
Baseball America recently referred to Francisco Pena as having “Cankles”. The future doesn’t seem too bright for that one. Then again, he will only be 18 years old this Year so there’s plenty of time for him to turn it around.
Not sure how much I agree with your rankings BTW. I’d rather have either Nick Evans or Lucas Duda then Mike Carp at this point. But it’s a good job nontheless.
I would think that cankles would be good for a catcher….more supprt. Don’t count on him running anywhere though.
mike pelfrey, who just turned 24, should be #2 on the list. he doesn’t officially qualify for these lists, but was clearly rushed to the majors.
ambiorix burgos, who is 23, surely has a higher ceiling than many of the pitchers listed. some see julio, but at least that’s major league bullpen level. most of the mets prospects on that list will never see signifcant time on a major league pitching staff.
Omar did a great job assembling the major league team, now he must do the same with the farm system. We don’t ask much Omar except for you to be the best at everything and bring us to a championship every year. Thats all.
A few points:
(1) I like the Mets 2007 draft. Kunz, Rustich, Vineyard, Moviel, Duda all give the Mets some prospects to watch out for. Personally, I would have preferred that they drafted Michael Burgess instead of Vineyard, but what can you do.
(2) Let’s not forget the Mets also signed Wilmer Flores, who is supposed to be one of the better international prospects to come out in 2007.
(3) With 3 picks within the first 40 this year, the Mets can make up for the loses of Gomez, Guerra and Mulvey. Humber was not much a prospect anymore.
(4) What about Nick Evans? I like him more than Carp. Carp is terrible. He’ll never hit lefties.
Can anyone agree with me that I believe we have the best 3-4-5 pitching in baseball?
With a healthy Pedro, we also have the best 1, 2….giving us the best 1-5
best 1-2?? Try Haren/Webb way better, Peavy/Young way better, Carmona/Sabathia better, Verlander/Willis(or Bonderman) probably better
i don’t know about willis anymore he really hasn’t had a great last 2 years, but I think as for as 1-2 we are very good but as you said above, i think haren/webb are bettery and carmona and sabathia are better. but as for as 3-4-5 we are the best i would believe.
Notice that I prefaced it with “with a healthy Pedro”. If Johan and Pedro were pitching at the tops of their games, I’d take them over anybody.
Too bad Pedro can’t realistically pitch at the top of his game anymore.
I have a feeling after the draft that list will look different. Hopefully we will use the money muscles in the draft. not sure kunz is deserving of #2 since hes really just a reliever. i do like him i watched him in the CWS he doesnt have overwhelming stuff but hes got guts and sometimes that can be just as useful as stuff when youre a reliever.
Well remember he was also a position player and not just strictly a pitcher. He has a little more work ahead of him to become more consistent and stronger. I watched him in Brooklyn and came to the same conclusion as you. Do you think Owens could be a sleeper going up thru the system?
how can you not put Evans in there one site had him as our #5 prospect ahead of Mulvey and Humber
Ruben Tejada…he’s the one to watch for next year.
we have one of the top 5 #1’s, a wild card #2 in Pedro, the best 3 & 4’s in the majors wit honly Boston as our competion with Dice-K and Bucholz or Lester and we have no #5 pitcher (Duque should be shot)
We have one of the 3 best rotations in the majors with arizona and boston providing competition with detroit and SD only having 2 really good pitchers and their 3/4 weaker.
Tom Brady molests dead cats.
Jordan, I have to disagree with some of your skepticism, which seems largely borrowed from Kevin Goldstein.
It was only a month or two ago that John Manuel was feeling pretty good about the Mets system because of the talent in the lower levels.
Where we’re hurting is near-term impact. Gomez Mulvey and Humber were all AAA players capable of helping the Mets in 2008 and perhaps slotting into a starting role by ‘09. That safety blanket is gone somewhat. We have Pelfrey and Vargas at SP and after that our next best bet is Jonathan Niese, a nice prospect, but without Guerra’s ceiling or Mulvey’s progress or polish.
In terms of long term talent, we lost the teenage pitching jewel, but kept the position jewel and have a number of young prospects who most people here don’t track, but from whom one or two may emerge as legit blue chippers. And don’t forget the Latin pipeline takes 2-4 years to show results. Ruben Tejada who just arrived stateside had signed with Fernando and Guerra in 05 I believe, but without the fanfare, but is starting to generate buzz at the lower levels.
No way we’re swinging another big deal, but have faith.
we sold our farm system to the devil. with the exception of Fernando Martinez.
What about that guy Owen or Owens and I’m not talking about Henry?
Dylan Owen, he dominated for Brooklyn. If he has a strong year for St. Lucie then he could find himself on the prospects list at the end of the year.
He’s 5′11″ 185 lbs. and he will turn 22 in July, so he’s not exactly got much working for him in those areas. But his GO/AO ration is good, and 69Ks/12BB’s is promising.
Dillon Gee was just about as good for the Cyclones last year, he’s three months older and 6′1″ / 195.
I look forward to seeing what they can do in A+ ball this year.
He doesnt have to be dominant for me if he keeps winning like that at each rung of the ladder.