Daily Archives: January 31, 2008
Jayson Stark of ESPN.com is reporting that the Mets and Johan Santana likely won’t reach a deal before tomorrow morning at the earliest.
Stark describes the chances of the deal falling through as “remote,” but nonetheless possible.
…in other words, you can go to bed if you were planning to stay up for some late-breaking news…
Keith Law, of ESPN.com and Scouts Inc., unveiled his Top 100 Prospects List yesterday, which is available right now as a free preview at ESPN.com Insider.
After trading four of their top prospects to Minnesota for Johan Santana, the Mets were one of 
five teams to have just one prospect make the cut: OF Fernando Martinez, who checks in as the tenth-best prospect in Law’s rankings.
Law, waving off people unimpressed with Martinez’s injury-plagued numbers at Double A this past season, writes:
“Martinez shows huge raw power in BP that will make its way into his game performances, and he has a solid approach with good pitch recognition for someone so young. He has good range in center and a plus arm if he outgrows center field and has to move to right… He’s going to be a star, but everyone has to bear in mind how young he is to keep his performance in perspective.”
Of the players the Mets sent to the Twins, two made Law’s list: OF Carlos Gomez was ranked 35th, while Deolis Guerra, a 19-year old right hander, checked in at 80th.
…i still don’t know how the Mets managed to keep martinez, to be honest…for some perspective, the three Red Sox prospects mentioned in potential deals with Minnesota all made the list, while Yankees RHP Phil Hughes wasn’t eligible…
…all these prospects list make me wonder, why do we rank prospects so eagerly when the comparison is so subjective and unscientific given different ages and levels of experience and relies so much on scouts…aside from MVP voting, we rarely rank major leaguers?…it would seem to be a lot more scientific and easy to do, given that they’re all competing at the same level, spending time in the same ballparks…prospect ranking is more like setting gambling odds, in my eyes…
Tagged Minors |
In an article by Associated Press writer Dave 
Campbell, former LHP Frank Viola questions whether or not the Twins received fair compensation for letting go of Johan Santana.
Viola, as quoted by Campbell:
“I question the trade somewhat, as a fan of the Twins and not an ex-ballplayer, I guess if you’re a Minnesota fan like I am, you hope this is the best Bill [Smith] could’ve done under the circumstances.”
“Carlos Gomez, he has to be comparable to a Kirby Puckett and a Torii Hunter? Good luck with that.”
Viola left Minnesota for the Mets under similar circumstances in 1989 when he was traded for pitchers Rick Aguilera, Kevin Tapani, David West, Tim Drummond and Jack Savage.
…viola grew up on long island and went to st. john’s in queens yet is a twins fan, what’s that about…as a fan of the mets frank, i’m more than happy with the trade…
Tagged Regis Courtemanche |
According to Jon Heyman at SI.com, although 
the Mets and Johan Santana’s agents are roughly $20 million apart on the total value of the deal, “high-ranking baseball people believe the deal is all but certain to get done” before tomorrow’s 5 pm deadline.
…as i suggested was the case roughly an hour or so ago, heyman writes that the offer is at or around $21.5 million per year for six years – on top of the money he is guaranteed in 2008 - bringing the total package to $142.25 million…
…i am getting a ton of e-mail from fans who are totally freaking out, fearing that the Mets will blow these contract negotiations with Johan Santana and his agents…
…i’m not worried, despite getting a text message last night that the stated the two sides are far apart…i mean, if that didn’t get me to lose my mind, nothing will…there is no way that the Mets went through all of the energy to make this trade, only to blow it…
…i know the pessimistic Mets fan has every reason to be nervous, but i would not get too worked up…seriously…
…having talked to a variety of different people today, all of which are in the know on this, my sense is that they’ll eventually work out a scenario that will pay Johan Santana just over $20 million per season, with a solid signing bonus to cover this coming year, and an easily attainable option year, that when all added up will give the player the seven-years and money he had been seeking…and i believe it will be done before tomorrow’s deadline…sure, i still keep hearing that it is not and will never be a ‘slam dunk,’ but those same people do not seem overly worried…
In fact, Bob Nightengale at USA Today, citing ‘a high-ranking official privy to the negotiations,’ recently reported that the Mets are close to agreeing to a five- or six-year contract extension with Santana that will average about $21.5 million a year.
…what i’d like to know, and can’t get an answer on, is how hard is that deadline…i mean, if santana control’s the no-trade clause, is he able to just push the deadline back as needed…
NBT sent in an e-mail asking…
“What if the Mets sign Livan Hernandez for the fifth spot and Shawn Green as a backup RF/1B. They can move El Duque to the pen with Duaner Sanchez coming back. Now they have a surplus on arms that they can package with Pelfrey and Church to get a really good right fielder from a team that really needs pitching.”
…well, if you’ve been following this current Hot Stove, you know that it’s hard enough to pull off one quality transaction – let alone three or four, most of which are all contingent on one another…and the plan you outline has a lot of moving parts, a lot of agents, and a lot of GMs, all of whom would need to turn their keys to get it done…
…that said, the sense i got was that Livan Hernandez and Kyle Lohse were simply back-up plans in the event the Mets lost out on santana, which they did not…
However, in his recent article for ESPN.com, Jayson Stark writes that there are signs that the Mets still have interest in Lohse, despite trading for Santana.
…as i have said before, i like the idea of adding another starter, like livan (less lohse), to Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez and santana, allowing el duque to move to the bullpen, where he can get more rest when needed, while also allowing Mike Pelfrey a full year to work between Triple-A and Shea as needed…
…also, personally, i’m not in any rush to trade church…plus, i am not sure he and pelfrey could be traded for a player who is significantly better than church is now…so you may as well keep church, while letting pelfrey develop…
In a report for ESPN.com, citing ‘sources familiar with the discussions,’ Jayson Stark explains that the Mets and Johan Santana remain far enough apart that a deal is unlikely to be reached until at least Friday.
Stark adds, “The sources also left open the possibility that the talks could collapse without an agreement, though the odds of that appear remote.”
…do you have to use that word, jayson…come on now…
According to Stark’s sources, Santana and his agents are still pushing for a six-year extension in the range of $150 million, while the Mets want to limit the guaranteed portion of the extension to five years.
This morning, the Pioneer Press reported the same information, noting that the Mets and Santana’s agent discussed a six-year deal worth more than $150 million, including a $7 million signing bonus and performance incentives.
…i’ll tell ya, nothing is ever easy in the world of blue and orange…
…by the way, even if the the Mets and santana reach an agreement this second, the team will likely hold off on having a press conference to celebrate the signing until next week, a) because he’ll still need to take a physical, and b) half of the city’s sports reporters are out in Phoenix covering the Super Bowl…
According to bogod, the odds on the Mets winning 
the 2008 World Series now sit at 5.5 to 1 – up from 10 to 1 prior to the team trading for Johan Santana.
The Red Sox are listed as the favorites to win the World Series at 3.5 to 1, while the Mets are now listed as the favorite to win the National League East and the NL Pennant.
…of course, odds makers do not throw, hit or field…man, i can’t wait for some real, live baseball…
By the way, the following are this season’s reporting dates:
- Pitchers & Catchers: Feb. 15
- First Workout: Feb 16
- Position Players Report: Feb 20
- First Full Workout: Feb 21
According to a report on MLB.com, the Orioles have made a last ditch effort to sign LHP Erik Bedard to a multi-year contract approaching $100 million.
‘Citing sources close to the Orioles,’ owner Peter Angelos called Bedard to discuss a five-year contract.
If an extension is not reached, it appears the Mariners and Orioles will finalize a proposed five-player trade which includes Seattle prospect OF Adam Jones.
…i have a feeling that peter angelos would not be a popular person in fantasy baseball leagues…i mean, other than the Miguel Tejada deal recently, does this guy ever pull the 
trigger…he would be the type of fantasy player that will let your trade offer sit there for weeks without looking at it…or rejects everything you send without a counteroffer…
…added to by Matthew Cerrone…
…good call, brandon…though, i think some O’s fans would go as far as to say angelos runs the team like he’s in fantasy land…
…it’s interesting that both bedard and santana are in a mad scramble right now to work out contract extensions…i hope neither is eyeing the other, because i am looking forward to all of this being done with…aren’t you…
During the B.S. Report podcast with ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons, Baseball Tonight’s producer Gus Ramsey said the following…
“I was on MetsBlog.com, which is a great resource for all Mets fans, and all winter long the guy posts the Mets Fan Confidence Rating based on polling and stuff. And it had been hovering around six the entire off-season. Today it’s up to about 8.3. So that’s where we are at.”
To listen, subscribe or download the B.S. Report, click here.
…jeez, people love that Confidence Rating…which fascinates me…
…in fact, i just learned that people fairly high up with the Mets actually keep an eye on it…which is awesome, but scary, in that it’s far from a scientific poll…frankly, i had been considering switching it to the Excitement Rating, or something to that effect, and just letting fans vote on whether they’re excited to be a Mets fan or not, since that’s a far more simple and emotional idea…
…but, at this point, there is no turning back…
…also, because i keep getting this question on e-mail, the Rating is based on a poll…it is not my personal opinion…i’m not sure how people miss it, but, every Tuesday or Wednesday i run the poll…the thing is, i post so damn much on this site, i suspect people blink and the poll is gone, even though a good 5,000 votes are typically submitted…in the future, i’ll try to post it in the morning and again in the afternoon…
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