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In Newsday, Ken Davidoff explains that there are two unanimous predictions within the baseball industry when it comes to the Mets 
and Johan Santana, 1) They will come to an agreement on Santana’s contract extension by Friday afternoon’s 5 o’clock deadline, and 2) they won’t complete that agreement until 4:59.
…and 3) i will blow throw 11 bottles of Pepto Bismol over the next 10 hours…
According to the Daily News, “Multiple baseball officials expressed confidence that the deal would be completed by the 5 p.m. deadline.”
…as i wrote yesterday afternoon, my sense is that they’ll eventually work out a scenario that will pay santana just over $20 million per season through five years, with a solid signing bonus to cover this coming year, and an easily attainable option year, that when all added up will give the player the seven-years and money he had been seeking…
According to Davidoff, Santana will likely get a six-year extension worth roughly $23 million a year, on top of the $13.25 million owed to him this season, adding, “A signing bonus could be included that would take the total to just over $150 million.”
Yesterday, at SI.com, Jon Heyman wrote that, although the Mets and Santana’s agents were roughly $20 million apart on the total value of the deal, “high-ranking baseball people believe the deal is all but certain to get done” before tomorrow’s 5 pm deadline.
…look, from what i understand, a) as i have been saying for months, as Andrew Marchand had been suggesting for months, as Torri Hunter recently said, and as Buster Olney recently reported, santana wants to be on the Mets and has wanted to be on the Mets since the start of the off-season, b) he does not want to go back to Twins and re-start this process, and c) he wants the money and the contract before the start of spring training for obvious reasons…plus, d) the Mets have no choice but to get this deal done…so, while i am naturally worried because i am a Mets fan, i know that a deal will get done…
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5 pm? Let’s make it a real Happy Hour. Let’s Get it Done!
Heineken’s and Guinness. Sign Oliver Perez to an extension and I’m on to Jacks and Goose.
Matt, do what I’m going to do, and find a twelve-pack of one of these three fine brews–Saranac, Blue Moon, or Sam Adams (that’s my preference, in order). Any one of those three will taste much better than ten bottles of Pepto Bismol.
I hope you haven’t been drinkin’ sincekindergarten. Although, as a Mets fan I can understand if you did.
is it a good idea to try and sign livan after johan and put el duque back in the pen?
Matt–
Just wanted to say you run a great site here.
Love the input you give daily. It also keeps me sane.
Great job.
assuming santana signs….and is healthy for 2009
our rotation def would have
santana
maine
3 = ?
4 =?
5 = ?
who do u fill in those spots?
sabathia ?
pedro?
perez?
pelfrey?
I am confident this deal will be made..of course we will sweat it out until 5pm.
As for next year, I am sure the mets will resign Perez, at least i hope so. The only issue with next years staff is..will the have the money to sign another top pitcher? Assuming the mets sign Santana, I can’t see how they would shell out another 20-24 million a year for a pitcher. Ecspecially with Texiera a free agent next year. I can see pedro coming back, if healthy, and Pelfrey getting a spot.
the 20-24 million i was talking about was CC Sabathia
Getting ahead of ourselves, aren’t we? j/k
Anyway, I think they will resign Perez (say 4 years) and Pedro reups for 2 (which means he is healthy, a wonderful thing!)
The last spot hopefully goes to Pelfrey.
So, ideally, the rotation from 2009-2012 could be
Santana
Pedro (thru 2010)
Maine
Perez
Pelfrey.
When Pedro retires, hopefully after 2010, they need to have someone from the minors ready to stay in.
Not a stretch either, since Pelf easily becomes a solid starter, and 4 of those guys are now in their 20s.
Pedro might be the wild card, and of course they have to resign Perez, but I could see both things happening.
It is actually amusing to me that with one trade, the roatation could go from a “disaster” to being the strength of the team for years to come.
And that, right there, is why the prospects and $$ is worth it (assuming Santana doesn’t pull an Alomar on us!)
Def. Pedro should be good for a few more years and Perez will likely resign as well. I mean come on, you wouldn’t be an Elf to Maine’s Santa if you weren’t happy with where you were. The next few years we will have a sweet rotation. Can’t wait.
Didn’t the Red Sox and Dice-K take talks down to the wire as well……..I even think for a little bit they were very very far apart and both were kinda calling each other’s bluff a bit. Eventually it all worked out….
Same thing here – theres a deadline, and they’ll meet it.
Didn’t the Mets make excuses as to why they couldn’t sign Vlad and A-Rod?
Until the ink is on the contract, I put NOTHING past this team’s ownership.
With the relationship Minaya has with Santanas agent already, and the fact that BOTH sides want this to happen, this deal will no doubt get done.
It will play out like look, you want to be here, we want you here…let’s compromise and get you signed.
You want 20 mill and this and that, we’ll give you 15 with this and no that.
Great, sign your name.
As anyone heard if those blowhards Francesca and Russo ever admit they were wrong, or even acknowledge the multiple reports that Santana actually prefers the Mets over Mike’s beloved Yankees? I haven’t been able to listen to them lately because I finally just got fed up with their negativity….
I mean, it is announced that the Mets came to a trade in principal, and immediately they dwell on how they better sign them or else it would be an ultimate failure (true, but could you give it a day before even speculating on this?) and then how there is no way Santana wants the Mets because Mike loves the Yankees and Chris just loves to hate. (It is so obvious that even though Russo is a Giants fan, he is foremost a Francesca shill so there is nothing he loves more than being on Mike’s side on a rag-rant.)
Sorry for the hostility so early in the morning. Matt’s mention on Torri Hunter’s comments just struck a nerve and I too am already on my fifth bottle of Pepto…. I need to go speak with my therapist now. I’m looking forward to some good news later today Matt, so please don’t disappoint!
I cant stand them!I mean Russo was like now Mikey dont forget Santana was playing under the Radar in Minnesota this is a whole new ball game in NY….Is he f n kidding me???
Well, he pitched pretty well in NY against the Mets last year…I don’t see how NY will phase a guy like that, if anything he will feed off a crowd the likes of which he’s never played for….
Mike and the Mad Dog are in arizona right now for the superbowl, so they havent been taking calls. I figure by tuesday theyll be hearing the wrath of the Mets fans.
Mike for insisting all year long that there was no way the mets had what it took to get santana, saying our prospects were garbage compared to the mighty melky cabrera.
Mad Dog for insisting that noone wants to go to the Mets right as the trade was being announced. Maybe theyd rather go to his [crappy] Giants. Oh thats right, the team is too busy paying cheater to disgrace baseballs records, overpaying for Zito and making these santana negotiations more difficult then they need to be, all while making some of the worst trades in history.
Wait. So you’re telling me Pierzynski is NOT worth Liriano, Nathan and Boof?
You can count me as one of the few hardcore Met fans that actually like Mike and Dog. I just see them as being very good at what they do, which is talk radio. They have their biases, as talk show hosts do; they’re not true journalists, nor do they intend to be. If they fire a lot of people up, it is directly in their interest, so Russo is not remotely concerned, when he throws a statement out, with whether it is %100 on or not. I know that regardless of any of this, the consensus remains that they are blowhards, but honestly I get a kick out of their dynamic; its entertaining, and clearly lots of us are listening to it in order to be so heated about it. There’s always ESPN radio if you hate the fan. Michael Kay, anyone?
Also, I can deal with their anti-met bias when the overwhelming majority of the other hosts are staunchly pro-met. I mean, Steve Somers is much more blatant in his biases than they could ever be.
I do think that the M O in talk radio is to spice up the dialogue to get a rise out of the fan base. And since we are a redheaded step child in this town baseball wise….we get dumped on by both Kay and Mike and the Dog. The fan makes up for it with characters like Summers and Benigno who bleed orange and blue.
Part of me is sweaing bullets the other part of me is holding the gun :-\
Santana is the baker here, waiting for the dough to rise.
It will get done, I know it’s easy to say, but have faith fellow Mets fans…Omar didn’t come this far to be turned away at the door. He’ll get in the door and what a party it will be….Done by Lunchtime is my guess..
I read somewhere that maximum periods of insurance for a pitcher is 5 years.
Is that true? Can someone explain to me how pitchers are insured and what is the recoverable loss. For example is it just quantifiable losses or are sponsorships and future revenues included?
I like to think of it as:
Santana is holding all the cards, but the Mets own the table, and Santana really wants to play at that table.
This isn’t a one way negotiation, each side has something the other one wants, so they will come to an agreement somewhere in the middle, just much closer to Santana’s side.
According to mlbtraderumors the Mets are at 142.25 for 7 years including this season. Johan wants 170. To meet in the middle is my prediction. 154/7 or 22 a year.
GUYS I HATE T BE THE BEARER OF BAD NEWS….I HAVE HAD A BAD FEELING SINCE DAY ONE AND ALL MY FRIENDS THINK IM NUTS BUT I DONT TRUST FREDDY COUPONS SORRY HE DOESNT EVER WANT TO BE OUT-LEVEREGED….MATT I THINK YOUR POSITIVITY IS AWESOME BUT YOU CANT LOOK ANYONE ANYMORE IN THE EYES AND SAY THE METS WONT BLOW IT…THEY HAVE HURT US BEFORE AND I JUST HAVE THIS PIT IN MY STOMACH SINCE HOUE ONE OF ALL THIS….REMEMBER I SAID IT IH8FREDCOUPONS
I’m sorry, I normally don’t like to dump on a fellow fan (and Mets fan DO have to stick together in this town), but this Freddy Coupon joke is getting real old and is in no way relevant anymore. They paid top dollar for Beltran and Pedro, and the one big guy that got away – Vlad – I think was at least a little justified because a bad back is not something you can just ignore. Anaheim gambled and won, but it could have easily gone the other way. Wilpon has come through the last several years. I have no problem with them. He wants to win and is willing to pay. I have no problem with being smart and keeping some money on the table for a midseason trade…
Oh my God, a sane Met fan….didn’t know they exist anymore…
Yeah, but he used all caps. You can’t argue with that logic.
Top dollar for Pedro, and Beltran, and Piazza, and Delgado and Castillo and Wagner….AND Vaughn, AND Cedeno, AND Appier….AND Citifield -out of his pocket-
The guy may not spend money in the right places, but he spends the money.
Count me in as someone who thinks the whole Freddie Coupons thing is absolute BS, also. I know that this is kind of a stretch connection, but a good family friend of ours is essentially family to the Wilpons, and he has gone on and on about all of their, and particularly Fred’s, desire to win at all costs. I hate to pseudo-name drop like that, but it has always stuck out to me when he recounts sitting with the Wilpons as they reacted to the end of last season, never having seen such dismay, privately.
Again, I’m really not trying to pump myself up here with this, I just happen to know someone who kows someone but everything he has ever said has lead me to believe that this team is the Wilpons’ life, beyond the financial end.
Guy is about to give out the richest contract to a pitcher in the history of baseball and you are still calling him Fred Coupons…do yourself a favor and go to sleep and don’t wake up until 5…then change your screen name…
I agree, Its not like the Mets don’t already have the 4th highest payroll in the major leagues (with the Johan addition, they’ll be in yankee, red sox territory). The Fred Coupons thing is kinda ridiculous at this point. The Mets have a VERY expensive team
I think it gets done regardless, but the problem is as an AGENT you have to literally shoot for the moon here. You are NEVER going to get a better situation then the that agent has right now. Its an agents wet dream!
Scott Boras is probably like, damn, I remember the good old days when A-Rod trusted me like they Johan trusts Greenberg…*stares at a pic of a smiling A-Rod and sheds a tear while “Baby Come back” plays in the background…*
Wasn’t that great?! If Santana signs, this will be a complete winter. Arod still got his money and team, and Boras will still get his outrageous commission, but some serious crow was eaten by all. Those two are a perfect marriage…. (I hope their spat is over and they’re talking to each other again. tsk tsk tsk…)
What killed me about that was A-Rod playing innocent…”I didn’t know he was going to opt out…” Pffft what a tool….You are over 30 years old, take control of your career for once and stop blaming other people for your mistakes…
*you can blame it all on me-
i was wrong, and i just can’t live without you*
I really enjoyed that image.
I eard on XM175 on the way in today that the mets and johan’s agent are off by —5 million per season— as of last night.
Wow, what baloney.
Wow! 150 Million! How do you think the Mets faithful will react when Santana struggles? Will they boo him in the same manner as Beltran and Delgado? He will struggle at some point, and ultimately not live up to everyone’s unrealistic expectations.
Hey Matt
A post @ 1:21am followed by another @ 6:33….Dude get some sleep!
There’s more than one person that posts here. The 1 am one was not Matt.
This will get done. It will make us all very nervous, pulling our hair out right to the end. But it will get done.
I’ve learned my lesson.
In Omar We Trust.
today is the day we become legit contenders, actually favorites, for the world series…..i will say one thing: I am 100% confident we will sign johan today. If we do not, I am filing for legal separation of a period of no less than one year from my beloved mets…..i will not root, support, watch or care one bit about the mets and if i fall in love with another team, so be it
other than that, in omar we trust
I cant sleep,cant eat, cant work until omar closes the deal. If not my girlfriend is going to leave.me for a yankee fan.
ps i stopped listening to the haters mike and the dog. Can the mets get a player that the yankees want, for once, without francesa whinning about it?stop chewing on ur pencap mike and get over it. Lets go Omar !
Francessa had a hard on for Santana the same way he has one for Dunkin Donuts…
I can’t lie…I am definitely nervous about these negotiations. However, the more I it sinks in that everyone involved seems to really want to get a deal done, that gives me some sense that a deal will eventually get done.
After the torturous 3 months of trade rumors, I have no patience for a slow negotiations process.
Just get it done already boys!
Guys stop obsessing about this not getting done. I just did some quick math. Take from this what you will but…
The Mets have saved about $36m from their 2007 payroll with the subtractions of Glavine, Green, Lo Duca & Mota. This also includes the reduced cost of Pedro’s & Alou’s contracts for 2008.
The Mets have added about $7m in Schneider, Church & Wise. Add in another $14m in salary increases for Castillo, Beltran, Wright, Reyes, Delgado, El Duque & Heilman bringing that total to $21m. Even if you throw in a few more million in the increases given (or to be given) to some of the younger bullpen arms and bench players the Mets (before Santana) are still looking like a cheaper team than 2007 by at least $10m-$12m.
You know out of all the things we’ve been through as Mets fans, I think botching this deal might be the thing that would have me throw in the towel and root for another team.
G-d forbid it does not go through. I feel really confident it will. But should it not over money or years…I am with you. I will simply shut it out of my life.
It would be too much to root for a team that having run the entire marathon gets to within 50 feet of the friggin finishing line and chooses to walk off the course instead.
I could not take that at all
I love the Mets, but if this doesn’t get done I am grabbing all my Met gear after work, taking the 7 train to Shea and having a bon fire in what remains of the parking lot. They always drag their heels on these things, they can’t possibly screw this up, can they?
I’ll be there with you man.
I will be burning it in Fred Wilpons front yard
The problem with this negotiation is that the Mets have absolutely no leverage. They must sign him for what he is asking for. This deal will abolutely exceed $160 million.
But they do have leverage. The first part of that, and I’m not at all being original with this, is that it’s now clear that Johan would like to be a Met above everything. Beyond that, he wants a trade period, and is sick as hell of all the negotiating and mystery that has gone on this offseason, hence demanding that the Twins get something done or not on Tuesday. He also knows that with the astronomical numbers being discussed, his potential FA payday next year if this were to fall through wouldn’t be so much greater than this one that it would spell the risk of injury at all. We’re talking about his ability to secure, %100, roughly $150 million if he gets this done, as opposed to rolling the dice on getting hurt and losing it all, or most of it for the shot at maybe 20 million more after a year in a losing, unhappy situation. You know that show Deal or No Deal? This is kinda like if there was one case left, and it either had the million dollars or the 10 dollars in it, and the bank was offering you 950,000. You take the 950,000.
Johan – I appreciate you trading 4 guys to get me. So let’s talk about my contract.
Omar: Johan we are so happy to have you join the Mets family. We are willing to offer you 5 years at $20 million per.
Johan: I could have had that with the Twins and not gone through all this trade stuff…
Omar: Okay, that’s true. But now you are in the NL, you’ll be dominate against these hitters.
Johan: That’s a good point. And the fans really want me here. I think I should be compensated for that.
Omar: Well, sure, we want to be fair…
Johan: I’m thinking 7 years at $25 million each. I think that’s fair considering ARod and I are probably the 2 biggest stars in New York now.
Omar: Now, really, we don’t want to go that high…
Johan: Wow, I don’t get it Man. I think I can get that kind of money at the end of this year…I still have a house in Minni…
Omar: Well, what if you get hurt?
Johan: Maybe I’ll take that chance for an extra $20 million. This isn’t Deal or No Deal.
Omar: Um, Freddy, what do you think?
Freddy: (passed out, clutching his checkbook).
Since we are giving him an extension on his current contract, are the Twins responsible for that 13 million owed to him this year?
I highly doubt it, but I haven’t heard anything mentioned about it.
Nope. The Mets traded for the player and his current contract.
okay, thanks Fregosi!
From NY Daily News-
They’re getting it done, there’s no question,” a rival baseball executive said of the extension, on condition of anonymity.
“It was a fait accompli before they started talking,” added a prominent player agent not involved in the negotiations.
The executive said that coming down to the day of the deadline was standard baseball business and not indicative of any impasse. “Usually, nothing gets done until the very end, like any negotiation,” the executive said.
“There is pressure on this club, because they need him. But the pressure works both ways,” the executive added. “How many people walk away from a $100million-plus offer? Walking away from that is not gutsy, that’s stupid. They both have pressure on them to get it done. Both sides have a lot at stake.”
Can you guys plz stop writing how IF this deal doesn’t get done then you will not be a Mets fan anymore. Plz. There is nor reason the deal doesn’t get done. Both sides want this. If for some reason it doesn’t, it won’t be because the Mets didn’t try. What kind of fan says I’m rooting for another team, not a real fan. I’m proud to be a Mets fan and you should be too.
I HATE ALL THE OMAR WE TRUST CRAP…ITS NOT HIS MONEY GUYS, ITS THE COUPONS MONEY AND FRED WILPON IS NOT IN THE NEGOTIATIONS IT JEFF…LOOK I WANT THIS DONE SO BAD AND I WILL MAKE A DEAL THAT IF HE DOES GET IT DONE I WILL EAT CROW AND CHANGE MY NAME….PROMISE…BUT GUYS I AM HEARING TAPS…..SORRY
Sorry?
I didn’t realize that the Oracle of Delphi was a Met fan that posted in all caps with poor grammar.
If this deal does not happen, the Mets will have dragged their fans through two historic collapses in 5-months. As much as I bleed orange and blue, I think many fans, including myself might turn their backs on this team until the leadership of Randolph, Minaya and Wilpon is over.
This franchise will fall from grace as quickily and painfully as Britney…
What team will you guys root for if this deal does not go through for some reason? I’m thinking about switching my allegiance to a National League West Coast team. Maybe the Padres. Please don’t make it come to that…….
If this does not get finalized, this will be worse than the collapse. I, honestly, will not watch a single pre-season game and will boycott through the Al-Star break.
This is like having someone give you a $100,000 check and having it bounce when you go to cash it.
Give him $157 million over 7 years and let’s get on with our lives. I just hope everyone passes their physicals.
Thanks, Matt, for a great site, and great SantanaPalooza coverage.
No offense, but I don’t want to hear this crap that I should remain a Mets fan even if they don’t sign JS. They pull this crap all the time and try to act as if they are a small market team when they reside in NYC!!! I’ve been a fan close to 30 years now and everybody has to draw the line somewhere, after a regular season collapse and an off-season that up to now has seen moves that has made this team worse, not better, not signing JS would cross that line. I cannot root for a team that says one thing “let’s win now”, and does the other thing “as long as we can do it on the cheap”.
Wow! 160 Million!
Santana was two games over .500 last year and all the signs suggest his best years are behind, not in front of him. I guess that’s why the Twins are smart in trading for prospects and saving themselves 150+ million dollars. After all, Minnesota fans are not stupid enough to pay $25 for parking and $10 a beer as Mets fans will be once they move into CitiField.
Uh Oh! 170 Million! Hot dogs are now $8, everyone, hot dogs are now $8.
Look at his ERA, Strikeouts, and WHIP. Wins and Losses can be somewhat deceiving, especially considering the offense of the team he played for.