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In Newsday, Ken Davidoff explains that there are two unanimous predictions within the baseball industry when it comes to the Mets 
and Johan Santana, 1) They will come to an agreement on Santana’s contract extension by Friday afternoon’s 5 o’clock deadline, and 2) they won’t complete that agreement until 4:59.
…and 3) i will blow throw 11 bottles of Pepto Bismol over the next 10 hours…
According to the Daily News, “Multiple baseball officials expressed confidence that the deal would be completed by the 5 p.m. deadline.”
…as i wrote yesterday afternoon, my sense is that they’ll eventually work out a scenario that will pay santana just over $20 million per season through five years, with a solid signing bonus to cover this coming year, and an easily attainable option year, that when all added up will give the player the seven-years and money he had been seeking…
According to Davidoff, Santana will likely get a six-year extension worth roughly $23 million a year, on top of the $13.25 million owed to him this season, adding, “A signing bonus could be included that would take the total to just over $150 million.”
Yesterday, at SI.com, Jon Heyman wrote that, although the Mets and Santana’s agents were roughly $20 million apart on the total value of the deal, “high-ranking baseball people believe the deal is all but certain to get done” before tomorrow’s 5 pm deadline.
…look, from what i understand, a) as i have been saying for months, as Andrew Marchand had been suggesting for months, as Torri Hunter recently said, and as Buster Olney recently reported, santana wants to be on the Mets and has wanted to be on the Mets since the start of the off-season, b) he does not want to go back to Twins and re-start this process, and c) he wants the money and the contract before the start of spring training for obvious reasons…plus, d) the Mets have no choice but to get this deal done…so, while i am naturally worried because i am a Mets fan, i know that a deal will get done…
5 pm? Let’s make it a real Happy Hour. Let’s Get it Done!
Heineken’s and Guinness. Sign Oliver Perez to an extension and I’m on to Jacks and Goose.
Matt, do what I’m going to do, and find a twelve-pack of one of these three fine brews–Saranac, Blue Moon, or Sam Adams (that’s my preference, in order). Any one of those three will taste much better than ten bottles of Pepto Bismol.
I hope you haven’t been drinkin’ sincekindergarten. Although, as a Mets fan I can understand if you did.
is it a good idea to try and sign livan after johan and put el duque back in the pen?
Matt–
Just wanted to say you run a great site here.
Love the input you give daily. It also keeps me sane.
Great job.
assuming santana signs….and is healthy for 2009
our rotation def would have
santana
maine
3 = ?
4 =?
5 = ?
who do u fill in those spots?
sabathia ?
pedro?
perez?
pelfrey?
I am confident this deal will be made..of course we will sweat it out until 5pm.
As for next year, I am sure the mets will resign Perez, at least i hope so. The only issue with next years staff is..will the have the money to sign another top pitcher? Assuming the mets sign Santana, I can’t see how they would shell out another 20-24 million a year for a pitcher. Ecspecially with Texiera a free agent next year. I can see pedro coming back, if healthy, and Pelfrey getting a spot.
the 20-24 million i was talking about was CC Sabathia
Getting ahead of ourselves, aren’t we? j/k
Anyway, I think they will resign Perez (say 4 years) and Pedro reups for 2 (which means he is healthy, a wonderful thing!)
The last spot hopefully goes to Pelfrey.
So, ideally, the rotation from 2009-2012 could be
Santana
Pedro (thru 2010)
Maine
Perez
Pelfrey.
When Pedro retires, hopefully after 2010, they need to have someone from the minors ready to stay in.
Not a stretch either, since Pelf easily becomes a solid starter, and 4 of those guys are now in their 20s.
Pedro might be the wild card, and of course they have to resign Perez, but I could see both things happening.
It is actually amusing to me that with one trade, the roatation could go from a “disaster” to being the strength of the team for years to come.
And that, right there, is why the prospects and $$ is worth it (assuming Santana doesn’t pull an Alomar on us!)
Def. Pedro should be good for a few more years and Perez will likely resign as well. I mean come on, you wouldn’t be an Elf to Maine’s Santa if you weren’t happy with where you were. The next few years we will have a sweet rotation. Can’t wait.
Didn’t the Red Sox and Dice-K take talks down to the wire as well……..I even think for a little bit they were very very far apart and both were kinda calling each other’s bluff a bit. Eventually it all worked out….
Same thing here - theres a deadline, and they’ll meet it.
Didn’t the Mets make excuses as to why they couldn’t sign Vlad and A-Rod?
Until the ink is on the contract, I put NOTHING past this team’s ownership.
With the relationship Minaya has with Santanas agent already, and the fact that BOTH sides want this to happen, this deal will no doubt get done.
It will play out like look, you want to be here, we want you here…let’s compromise and get you signed.
You want 20 mill and this and that, we’ll give you 15 with this and no that.
Great, sign your name.
As anyone heard if those blowhards Francesca and Russo ever admit they were wrong, or even acknowledge the multiple reports that Santana actually prefers the Mets over Mike’s beloved Yankees? I haven’t been able to listen to them lately because I finally just got fed up with their negativity….
I mean, it is announced that the Mets came to a trade in principal, and immediately they dwell on how they better sign them or else it would be an ultimate failure (true, but could you give it a day before even speculating on this?) and then how there is no way Santana wants the Mets because Mike loves the Yankees and Chris just loves to hate. (It is so obvious that even though Russo is a Giants fan, he is foremost a Francesca shill so there is nothing he loves more than being on Mike’s side on a rag-rant.)
Sorry for the hostility so early in the morning. Matt’s mention on Torri Hunter’s comments just struck a nerve and I too am already on my fifth bottle of Pepto…. I need to go speak with my therapist now. I’m looking forward to some good news later today Matt, so please don’t disappoint!
I cant stand them!I mean Russo was like now Mikey dont forget Santana was playing under the Radar in Minnesota this is a whole new ball game in NY….Is he f n kidding me???
Well, he pitched pretty well in NY against the Mets last year…I don’t see how NY will phase a guy like that, if anything he will feed off a crowd the likes of which he’s never played for….
Mike and the Mad Dog are in arizona right now for the superbowl, so they havent been taking calls. I figure by tuesday theyll be hearing the wrath of the Mets fans.
Mike for insisting all year long that there was no way the mets had what it took to get santana, saying our prospects were garbage compared to the mighty melky cabrera.
Mad Dog for insisting that noone wants to go to the Mets right as the trade was being announced. Maybe theyd rather go to his [crappy] Giants. Oh thats right, the team is too busy paying cheater to disgrace baseballs records, overpaying for Zito and making these santana negotiations more difficult then they need to be, all while making some of the worst trades in history.
Wait. So you’re telling me Pierzynski is NOT worth Liriano, Nathan and Boof?
You can count me as one of the few hardcore Met fans that actually like Mike and Dog. I just see them as being very good at what they do, which is talk radio. They have their biases, as talk show hosts do; they’re not true journalists, nor do they intend to be. If they fire a lot of people up, it is directly in their interest, so Russo is not remotely concerned, when he throws a statement out, with whether it is %100 on or not. I know that regardless of any of this, the consensus remains that they are blowhards, but honestly I get a kick out of their dynamic; its entertaining, and clearly lots of us are listening to it in order to be so heated about it. There’s always ESPN radio if you hate the fan. Michael Kay, anyone?
Also, I can deal with their anti-met bias when the overwhelming majority of the other hosts are staunchly pro-met. I mean, Steve Somers is much more blatant in his biases than they could ever be.
I do think that the M O in talk radio is to spice up the dialogue to get a rise out of the fan base. And since we are a redheaded step child in this town baseball wise….we get dumped on by both Kay and Mike and the Dog. The fan makes up for it with characters like Summers and Benigno who bleed orange and blue.
Part of me is sweaing bullets the other part of me is holding the gun :-\
Santana is the baker here, waiting for the dough to rise.
It will get done, I know it’s easy to say, but have faith fellow Mets fans…Omar didn’t come this far to be turned away at the door. He’ll get in the door and what a party it will be….Done by Lunchtime is my guess..
I read somewhere that maximum periods of insurance for a pitcher is 5 years.
Is that true? Can someone explain to me how pitchers are insured and what is the recoverable loss. For example is it just quantifiable losses or are sponsorships and future revenues included?
I like to think of it as:
Santana is holding all the cards, but the Mets own the table, and Santana really wants to play at that table.
This isn’t a one way negotiation, each side has something the other one wants, so they will come to an agreement somewhere in the middle, just much closer to Santana’s side.
According to mlbtraderumors the Mets are at 142.25 for 7 years including this season. Johan wants 170. To meet in the middle is my prediction. 154/7 or 22 a year.
GUYS I HATE T BE THE BEARER OF BAD NEWS….I HAVE HAD A BAD FEELING SINCE DAY ONE AND ALL MY FRIENDS THINK IM NUTS BUT I DONT TRUST FREDDY COUPONS SORRY HE DOESNT EVER WANT TO BE OUT-LEVEREGED….MATT I THINK YOUR POSITIVITY IS AWESOME BUT YOU CANT LOOK ANYONE ANYMORE IN THE EYES AND SAY THE METS WONT BLOW IT…THEY HAVE HURT US BEFORE AND I JUST HAVE THIS PIT IN MY STOMACH SINCE HOUE ONE OF ALL THIS….REMEMBER I SAID IT IH8FREDCOUPONS
I’m sorry, I normally don’t like to dump on a fellow fan (and Mets fan DO have to stick together in this town), but this Freddy Coupon joke is getting real old and is in no way relevant anymore. They paid top dollar for Beltran and Pedro, and the one big guy that got away - Vlad - I think was at least a little justified because a bad back is not something you can just ignore. Anaheim gambled and won, but it could have easily gone the other way. Wilpon has come through the last several years. I have no problem with them. He wants to win and is willing to pay. I have no problem with being smart and keeping some money on the table for a midseason trade…
Oh my God, a sane Met fan….didn’t know they exist anymore…
Yeah, but he used all caps. You can’t argue with that logic.
Top dollar for Pedro, and Beltran, and Piazza, and Delgado and Castillo and Wagner….AND Vaughn, AND Cedeno, AND Appier….AND Citifield -out of his pocket-
The guy may not spend money in the right places, but he spends the money.
Count me in as someone who thinks the whole Freddie Coupons thing is absolute BS, also. I know that this is kind of a stretch connection, but a good family friend of ours is essentially family to the Wilpons, and he has gone on and on about all of their, and particularly Fred’s, desire to win at all costs. I hate to pseudo-name drop like that, but it has always stuck out to me when he recounts sitting with the Wilpons as they reacted to the end of last season, never having seen such dismay, privately.
Again, I’m really not trying to pump myself up here with this, I just happen to know someone who kows someone but everything he has ever said has lead me to believe that this team is the Wilpons’ life, beyond the financial end.
Guy is about to give out the richest contract to a pitcher in the history of baseball and you are still calling him Fred Coupons…do yourself a favor and go to sleep and don’t wake up until 5…then change your screen name…
I agree, Its not like the Mets don’t already have the 4th highest payroll in the major leagues (with the Johan addition, they’ll be in yankee, red sox territory). The Fred Coupons thing is kinda ridiculous at this point. The Mets have a VERY expensive team
I think it gets done regardless, but the problem is as an AGENT you have to literally shoot for the moon here. You are NEVER going to get a better situation then the that agent has right now. Its an agents wet dream!
Scott Boras is probably like, damn, I remember the good old days when A-Rod trusted me like they Johan trusts Greenberg…*stares at a pic of a smiling A-Rod and sheds a tear while “Baby Come back” plays in the background…*