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In a chat at Baseball America, Jim Callis re-ranked the Mets Top 10 
Prospects List to look as follows: (1) OF Fernando Martinez, (2) RHP Eddie Kunz, (3) RHP Brant Rustich, (4) LHP Jon Neise, (5) LHP Nathan Vineyard, (6) RHP Robert Parnell, (7) RHP Joe Smith, (8) RHP Scott Moviel, (9) 3B Danny Murphy, (10) SS Wilmer Flores.
…first off, i like that the Top 10 contains seven pitchers, one of which is not pelfrey, who is still a prospect in my mind…
…if you recall, last week, i wrote of some new rhetoric coming from the Mets, specifically from the minor-league coaches down in St. Lucie, which went as follows…
…for the first time in a long while, the Mets are working hard to draft and sign as many young pitchers as they can…they feel they have acquired some of the best young pitching through the draft over the last year or two…so, even if the Mets trade a few minor-league pitchers, they still have a good number of young arms to fill in with over the next few years…
Meanwhile, Deolis Guerra and Carlos Gomez now sit as the top two prospects in the Twins organization, according to Callis.
…now, that’s what i like to hear…of course, this will not stop the Twins from getting slammed in reports about how they goofed up by getting so little in return for santana - as if they had a choice…
…people like to break these deals down, in the now, and try to determine a winner and a loser…but, why…i mean, the Mets needed an ace, and they got one…the Twins needed to move santana, and they did, and they got four prospects in the process…when i hear people make the winner-loser comment, it suggests that one side must fail, while the other must succeed…why can’t both teams do well…
…if gomez makes an all-star team in a few years, and mulvey, guerra and humber contend for cy-young awards, does that alter how badly the Mets needed an ace today…no, it doesn’t…the Mets had to make this trade, and they were not going to acquire santana for free…if i had a crystal ball, and knew that gomez will be an All-Star, and the Twins had to have him, i’d still trade him to get santana because the Mets need an ace now…end of story…
Agree 100%. If there was any player in baseball who the Mets needed the most at this very point in time, it was without question Johan Santana.
totally agree. and i don’t want to hear about how the mets “bought” the player. it was a trade, and the mets gave up a ton of future to get him. although our payroll is getting into the stratosphere . . .
by the way, it seems that with the elder steinbrenner out of the picture, the yankees are much less reactive to the moves that the mets make (see: beltran, santana). that’s a good thing. makes me hate them less. not much less, but maybe, on a scale of 1 to 10, i now only loathe them a 12.3.
Has there been a starting pitcher who has recently gone from the AL to the NL who has put up much better numbers with his new team? The only 2 that I can think of are Derek Lowe and Chris Young.
Others who have switched (not factoring in injuries):
Zito’s numbers got worse
Hudson’s stayed about the same, then got worse.
Mulder was better his first year, but the year before was on off-year for him.
Arroyo was good for a year then went back to normal.
Ok, so maybe it does seem that pitchers do get better in the NL, at least for one year. The only exception seems to be Zito. Thank the Gods that we weren’t able to sign him last year.
How about Pedro?
Had a near 4 era in 2004, and was sub-3 in 2005, with 218IP, and 15 wins
I think it depends on type of pitcher as well. Those who have great stuff and don’t rely so much on the mental approach dominate both leagues.
The stats are bound to be better because of no DH. But wins or domination of the leagues probably depends on the quality of batters in any league at the time and the quality of your team.
I am sure the fact Zito is on a poor team affects his starts (pressure, motivation etc.). Look at Pettitte and Clemens with the Astros. The fact that Santana dominated the AL in a small market team shows that his upside in a good NL team is incredible.
I hope both sides come out a winner in this trade and I’ll be pulling hard for both Gomez and Humber, two prospects I’ve always liked.
While Pelfrey has better stuff, I think Humber has as good a chance, if not better, to become a viable ML starter because I think he has better makeup. I do hope Pelfrey succeeds eventually and I want to see him get his chances this year, but something about his demeanor on the mound does not inspire confidence.
I agree. The best part about making this trade with the NL is that I can cheer like hell for Gomez and not worry about ever facing him, except in the WS. I would love to see him or Humber become excellent players, so long as they STAY in the AL!
Or if they flop and never pan out for Minnesota, then that would be OK in the sense that we can rest assured we really did give up nothing for Johan.
The Mets should have a continuous running loop of last night’s game running in their locker room throughout the season…
I agree that we needed Santana and we were not going to get him for free. In the big picture, though, I think we need to be more mindful of drafting smart and re-stocking the farm at all times. The Santana trade was great, but we have to have a constant flow of talent from the farm, else we’ll never have cheap alternatives, nor will we have tradeable chips. Restock restock restock!!!!
I also can’t agree with you more that Santana was a must get. I really believe the cost was nominal compared to what the Twins were trying to get. I fully understand that in five years from now the trade may not look as great for the Mets, but I am willing to take that risk….or those five players could turn out to be Pat Zachary, Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson and Dan Norman.
Second, I thought that Joe Smith was closer to the majors and would rank hire than seven.
Matt take a few days off, you deserve a vacation. Great Job!
I agree .The Mets had to make this trade. If Gomez does turn out to be an all star ,I would hope the same future for FMart. If he turns out better then fmart, shame on us .
you have to give up talent to get talent, I don’t understand the “shame on us” comment. Trades are not “steals” all the time, you shouldn’t be expecting that everytime you make a trade, its about giving up talent to get it. No one can predict at this point with exact certainty who will be better, Gomez or Fmart, if they could, all of this prospect talk would be meaningless, they’d already know who will be the best players. There’s no guarantee and there never will be.
Agree 100%.
I hope Gomez becomes the next Curtis Granderson, and Guerra becomes the next Liriano (without the injurires). Even if every player the Mets sent ends up reaching his fullest potential, this was still a must make trade for the Mets, and a good one.
Johan Santana is a MET.
I absolutely agree, Matt. Great analysis of “deals”. Performance and talent based deals are hard due to the lack of a crystal ball but the best deals are the ones where everyone wins.
The Mets needed and “ACE” and the Twins needed something or else get two draft picks. That said, Omar and the Wilpons did a great job here. I hope it pans out great in the future for both teams because of the success of the pieces traded not the failure of one teams players versus the others.
I still can’t wait for Spring training!!!!!
What about Nick Evans and Dylan Owen? Owen was 9-1 for Brooklyn with a 1.49 ERA…Only 12 walks in 72 innings pitched while striking out 69…That is some good stuff. Evans is the organizations top 1B prospect, more so then Carp, Hit 15 home runs the las 2 seasons, and jumped his average 30 points this last season to .286…kid’s got some talent. I was just curious where those 2 would rank?
Owen isn’t that highly thought of by scouts. In fact, the same Baseball America had put him on their ’31st’ list for prospects who they spent the time writing something about but didn’t make the Top 30 cut (Of course this was pre-Santana trade). The main reason is that he doesn’t have overpowering stuff. This is what they had to say…
“Dylan Owen, rhp, Mets
Born: July 12, 1986. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 185. Drafted: Francis Marion (S.C.), 2007 (20th round). Signed by: Marlin McPhail.
Owen dominated hitters during his college career at Francis Marion (S.C.), earning NCAA Division II 2007 pitcher-of-the-year honors after going 10-1, 1.04 and setting the Peach Belt Conference career strikeout record with 334 in three seasons. His success carried over into his pro debut, as he took advantage of short-season Brooklyn’s pitcher-friendly Keyspan Park like few pitchers have. Signed for $50,000 in the 20th round, Owen claimed two-thirds of the New York-Penn League’s pitching triple crown, leading in wins (nine) and ERA (1.49). He has a shorter and wider body than scouts would like but also solid-average stuff and an advanced feel pitching. He spots his 86-90 mph fastball to all four quadrants of the strike zone, and while he has below-average velocity, he can get to 91-92 when needed, even late in games. He has above-average fastball command, and he can vary his breaking balls depending on the situation, using shorter sliders for groundballs and bigger curves for strikeouts. Owen doesn’t have much projection or a true plus pitch, so he’s unlikely to become an elite prospect. But he’s likely to get pushed aggressively to see if he can get advanced hitters out, and he could jump to high Class A in 2008.”
As for Evans, most people will rank him anywheres from 6-15 in our updated system, so he likely just missed the cut. I was personally suprised they had Dan Murphy over him, but to each his own….
Thanks for all the information. It made it a bit clearer. Much appreciated.
Hopefully guys can come out of nowhere and be sleepers, like an Owen, and help us out. Evans and Murphy definitely have the bats.
Much of the Cyclones team was better (and older) than the NYPL. It’ll be interesting to see how those guys do this year for St. Lucie, assuming they dont get assigned to Savannah instead.
If Owen or Gee can dominate A+ the same way in 2008 then they will find themselves in the Mets top 10. But for reasons above its doubtful.
I would have like to see Evans on that list, but I guess it gives us an idea that the Mets still have a little depth in the organization… Murphy is a gym rat type with the hitting and could develop into a big league DH unless his defense gets better. I think they see more upside to Murphy than to Evans or Carp.
Well, these are the same scout’s that would rate Victor Zambrano over Greg maddux because he has more electric “stuff”
If anything, that Owens write up sounds a lot like Maddux.
So, what if he adds 2-3 MPH to the FB, or they teach him Webb’s sinker? Suddenly, he is an untouchable!
Actually, I remember that Webb was nothing special until he learned that new pitch, and became an overnight “ace”
Is it me or have Guerra and Gomez suddenly gone up in the rankings because of the attention they have got or have they suddenly developed skills in 3 months that weren’t scouted before?
I thought every scout said the Twins had better prospects than the Mets? Thats why they were looking for MLB ready players?
Their farm is okay, but it lacks blue chip potential. Think about a farm loaded with about 6-8 potential #3-5 starters, add in a couple Outfielders who don’t figure to have any impact in 2008 and a considerably lower ceiling then Gomez and that’s what they have.
Gomez and Guerra have the potential to be great, most of what they have there doesn’t. That’s why their ranked ahead of them. If you’ll notice, Mulvey got caught in the sandstorm of mediocre arms and only ranked 7th and Humber was off the Top 10 altogeather.
Still makes one think the system we had was not as weak as we thought or as weak as what was talked about in the media. Mets prospects are not can’t miss but they are pretty good with some potential to be great. Without these 4 in the system…things have thinned considerably but we still have Pelfrey, Burgos, Fmart and Joe Smith in additiona to what you read about. I consider both Pelfr and Burgos as prospects since both have options and are not contributors to the big squad regularly yet.
That is a decent group above.
Plus church and Maine are cheap for a few more years as is Heilman.
We are not devoid of young inexpensive players…just need some more
I am surprised to see our prospects move up to the top of the Twins organization. I always saw the twins organzation as pretty good at developing young players. IS this weakness (below mets caliber players) due to moving players up to the big leagues faster?
It’s amazing how everyone says our prospects are crap until we trade them.
Do you think the RedSox regret trading Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett? Not when they look at that nice trophy. There is nothing wrong with fair trades. Rich teams can always buy position players, but #1 starters don’t make the market very often.
Good Luck to the new Twins, but you have to do this kind of deal.
Agreed but only because Beckett delivered on his promise of being very very good.
Santana has to be himself and perform to his capabilities here for this to work. If he becomes Randy Johnson of the Yanks….we are very unhappy