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Prospect guru Kevin Goldstein continues his countdown of each organization’s Top 11 Prospects, today unveiling his list for the Mets at Baseball Prospectus.
…thankfully, this list was constructed after the Mets sent four of their top prospects to Minnesota in the Johan Santana trade, so 
we get, in effect, four extra scouting reports….he reviewed the prospects the Mets sent to the Twins last week…
Like every list, OF Fernando Martinez leads the pack, of whom Goldstein writes:
“To hit .271 in Double-A when you are as old as most high school seniors is an impressive feat. Martinez has outstanding bat speed and tremendous power potential to go with a rapidly improving approach, and could develop into a middle-of-the-order force if everything falls right.”
After Martinez, the list looks like:
2. Jon Niese, LHP
3. Eddie Kunz, RHP
4. Wilmer Flores, SS
5. Brant Rustich, RHP
6. Nathan Vineyard, LHP
7. Scott Moviel, RHP
8. Bobby Parnell, RHP
9. Dan Murphy, 3B
10. Ruben Tejada, SS/2B
11. Stephen Clyne, RHP
…it was a bit of a surprise to see flores, the team’s top Latin signee this season, that high on the list…a monster 6’3” at age 17, he’s clearly projectable…
Regarding Flores, Goldstein comments:
“Flores has a huge frame and the potential for plus-plus raw power to go with the hitting skills to make consistent hard contact. Defensively, he has soft hands and an above-average arm. He’s an average runner.”
As for the system as a whole, Goldstein isn’t so high on it, but sees reason for optimism:
“As one official with the team put it, the recent Johan Santana deal “ripped the heart” out of the Mets system, but at the same time, New York just added the best pitcher in baseball to the organization. This is one of the worst collections of talent as it stands right now, but it’s also bad in a very different way from, say, the Astros. Right now, the Mets’ system might be just as bad, but at the same time, it does have more young players capable of taking a step forward this year and making the organization look better 12 months from now.”
…which is as much as you could ask for, given all the recent free agent signings and the santana trade…this year’s three first round picks should prove very important to rebuilding the system…
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i realize that fransisco pena was left off this list because of a bad 2007 season. does anyone know if there are still any positive projections for him, or if he has pretty much fallen into that ‘over before he ever really began’ prospect category? It would be wonderful to have an actual catching prospect in our system considering we have most of our other positions at least partially filled for the next 4-5 years (aside from 1b)
Pena still has plenty of potential. He’s going to be 18 for this entire season, and even average offensive production ought to restore his status as a solid prospect.
Flores is only 16 his DOB is 8/6/91. Wow that is basically a Sophmore or Junior in High School. The Baseball America Prospect Handbook says he is the 17th ranked prospect in their system.
Their top 30 Prospects are according to BA:
1. Fernando Martinez OF
2. Deolis Guerra RHP (Traded)
3. Carlos Gomez OF (Traded)
4. Kevin Mulvey RHP (Traded)
5. Eddie Kunz RHP
6. Brant Brustich RHP
7. Philip Humber RHP (Traded)
8. Jon Neise LHP
9. Nathan Vineyard LHP
10. Robert Parnell RHP
11. Joe Smith RHP
12. Scott Moviel RHP
13. Steven Clyne RHP
14. Nick Carr RHP
15. Danny Murphy 3B
16. Greg Veloz 2B
17. Wilmer Flores 3B/SS (2007 International FA)
18. Ruben Tejada 2B/SS
19. Mike Carp 1B
20. Nick Evans 1B
21. Francisco Pena C
22. Phillips Orta RHP
23. Adam Bostick LHP
24. Emmanuel Garcia 2B/SS
25. Steven Register RHP
26. Mike Antonini LHP
27. Jefry Marte 3B (2007 International FA)
28. Juan Lagares SS
29. Lucas Duda 1B/OF
30. Elvin Ramirez RHP
It’s really to bad that we don’t have a catcher or first baseman coming up in the next couple of years.
we have mike carp, but a lot of people are down on him because of this past year, this year will certainly be huge for him, basically make or break. As for Francisco Pena, he’s 17, had a horrible year, and needs to adjust big time, however, he still has the tools to do something. He was essentially playing in low A ball when a lot of high school kids would be juniors or seniors. Give the kid a chance and lets see what happens. Being so young he should be afforded a certain leash, its just way too early to tell.
Nick Evans is a solid prospect to watch. A good season from him– likely at AA– will entrench him as a legitimate 1B prospect.
Everyone knows Mike Carp, and most people are way down on him after his struggles last season. He’s still an interesting prospect in my eyes, though this season will be make or break for him.
Lucas Duda is also definitely one to watch, though he’s 3+ years away.
Jason Jacobs was a catcher/firstbaseman for Brooklyn with Duda. He led the team in homers (12) and rbi’s (46). Have to keep an eye on him as well and no he’s not related to Mike.
Jacobs is one to watch, though he’ll be 24 this season. He’s going to need to progress through the system quickly to garner any real chance.
evans is the best 1b prospect we got…better than carp…he is def one to watch
A couple people have mentioned Michael Abreu as a 1B in the Mets system this season. Is he actually going to be stateside this year?
Not that he or Carp are really star prospects anymore, but they would be options. And Nick Evans may be the Mets best high level hitting prospect behind FM. I would look for him to be the best bet for a 2010 starting 1B from the system. It might be prudent to pick up Delgado’s option for 2009…
Abreu resolved his residency issues and should be back in the organization this season.
He has a good approach at the plate, though his swing is a bit loopy, which may not produce at the higher levels (AAA+). He’ll also be 29 this season, so I can’t imagine him turning into much more than a platoon 1B at the ML level.
I’ll live with that + Santana
In a long winded way, he said that system rankings shoot up and down from year to year, and it is real hard to project how 17-20 YO guys in the low minors will develop (how soon, if at all).
A few of these guys have monster years, and suddenly the Mets are a hot system again!
Still, they have a loaded team and a solid nucleus of young guys, so the system has done it’s job. Plus Pelfrey is still around, although not on the prospect list.
And where is my man Duda?
Matt, I think your last comment hit it right on the spot. The fact that we traded for Santana and not signed him straight up is a huge boost to the ripped apart Mets system. Guys, we’re getting 3 picks before the 2nd round starts! That’s huge! Imagine getting a Humber, Pelfrey, and Smith in ONE draft. There’s gotta be some good talent that the Mets can pluck out of the draft…
What I want to know is, WHERE IS EVAN LONGORIA????
You just like him because of the name. You sick bastard you…
hes in the devils rays system hes basically the best prospect in all of baseball
More interested in Eva Longoria…
I really wanna see Over Her Dead Body
No you don’t. Not even Eva Longoria wants to see that movie.
Fernando Martinez in the starting outfield to enter Citi Field.
He’s got a long way to go to get there, though its not impossible. He’ll start 2008 in AA, and have to show his small sample last year wasnt a fluke. If he can have a strong showing for 1/2 the year in AA and then show no decline when moving up to AAA, then he might be a spring 2009 option. Its more likely he is a midseason 2009 call up or Sept 2009 if they want to take it conservatively.
It would be nice if a couple of these guys took a big step forward this year…we’re going to need that so we can trade them for a pitcher to replace Pedro and O’Perez!
Who said we’re losing Perez? Omar will have him resigned before the Allstar break. He’ll fall apart without the professor…
Boras clients almost never re-sign before hitting the open market. Testing the FA waters would be a smart move for Perez, especially if he has another good season.
Still doesn’t mean he’ll sign elsewheres. Just that we’ll have to pay market value to keep him.
Absolutely, and I hope that we do re-sign him. I just see a lot of people clamoring for him to be re-signed right now, which in all likelihood, will just not happen.
The Spurs drop to 5th in the West, Tony Parker is banged up, and suddenly we forget all about Longoria. What’s up with that?
Thanks as always, Jordan.
BTW… speaking of off-season changes, I don’t recall seeing any in-depth evaluations of Steven Register… anyone have anything solid on this guy? (Minor league numbers look a little “meh” at a glance– decent ERA, bunch of hits K/BB around 3, K/9 around 8.)
He has decent command, with a decent fastball that has good movement, sinking and cutting in on righties. He also owns a solid slider with good tilt and a sharp little break. His change is average, at best.
He has crappy mechanics, which is why he’s no longer starting.
So we’re talking a ceiling, IYO, of situational relief? Our new ROOGY, maybe?
He could be a decent 6/7th inning type guy. He should be able to get by with his fastball/slider combo for an inning or so, and if the changeup develops, he could have a nice career. But yeah, situational relief would be a very safe projection.
Dylan Owen anybody?
Kid had a sick line last year in A- Brooklyn.
9-1 W-L, 1.49 ERA, 13 games started, 72 IP, 51 Hits, 12 ER, 0 HRs, 12 BB, 69 K, 0.87 WHIP
He did post great numbers. His stuff isn’t going to overwhelm anyone, with a fastball topping out at 92, so he’ll need to continue to refine his secondary pitches to make a real impact. It will be interesting to see how he fares against advanced hitters this season.
thanks for that. Hopefully he can turn into a Mulvey/Bannister-type and have a great Pitching IQ.
That’s the hope with him.
People tend to forget that there are a ton of solid pitchers at the ML level that don’t throw 95+. There will always be a place for guys like Owen with poise and moxie.
Plus he was a little old for the NYPL, I would love to see him put up a strong showing in the FSL then he might be prospect worthy. Dillon Gee as well.
Flores is a great example of why this farm system will recover. They can be the prime team for just about any major latin talent, and now with Santana they are even more appealing to Venezuelians (sp?)
Joe Smith?
There’s the 50IP rule for losing rookie eligibility, which Smith didn’t break, obviously. However, in the eyes of MLB, being on an active ML roster for 45+ days while the roster limit is set to 25 will eliminate you from any rookie considerations. I guess no one counts him as a rookie?
Joe Smith was a favorite of mine last year but after a while he came back down to earth. Players learned his delivery and he became hittable. I love his mound presence though. He seems very poised on the mound and nothing shakes him. Very good quality for a young reliever. So bottom line is it is up to Smith to make adjustments now to the adjustments batters made to him. I dont know if he will make the 25 man roster out of Spring and that might not be the worst thing. A year at AAA might do him some good and having him for an “in emergency break glass” situation for injuries is a good thing. Wasnt it true that the Twins were considering asking for him in the Santana deal? Thought I read that. Anyway, Omar has signed so many relievers this offseason so its going to be interesting to see the spring battles going on for what looks to be only one open bullpen spot. You cant have enough arms is my motto though.
We must remember that we kept Pelfrey. Because he pitched for the major league club doesnt mean he isnt still a propspect. He will probably pitch in AAA all year and has his entire career ahead of him. That Omar kept him cant be overlooked. Also isnt F-Mart one of the top 20 prospects in all of baseball or am I wrong? That Omar held on to him too is amazing as well. He has been said to have the talent to be a superstar in this league. He is so young and has tremendous raw talent. Sky is the limit for F-Mart.
Promising for our system as well is the 3 picks we have coming. How sweet to have the 18th overall pick from Atlanta for Tommy boy Glavine! Finally Glavine gives us something of worth (sorry but I never accepted him as a Met even though he pitched well at times).
Is there anyone on this blog who has knowledge about the players available to be drafted in the upcoming draft? What type of players will be there for the Mets to take with their 3 picks? Any great players out there for them to draft? Is it a strong draft class? Isnt it great that Omar and the Mets will finally stop kissing the butt of Selig and draft like the Yanks and Sox have been, getting higher talent that slip to them because of signability issues other clubs may have. If anyone has info or bios on players the Mets have a chance of drafting I would appreciate the insight. Thanks and Lets Go Mets!
It’s a decent draft this year, heavy with college bats.
The top prospects include SC 1B Justin Smoak, Vandy 3B Pedro Alvarez and LHP Brian Matusz out of San Diego.
It’s tough to predict who will be available when the Mets pick, since some teams draft on organizational need, other take BPA, some pick based on signability, etc…
That being said, some bats I’d like the Mets to look at: 1B Brett Wallace (ASU), 2B Jemile Weeks (Miami), 1B Yonder Alonso (Miami) and Pete Paramore, C out of AZ State.
Arms are a different story… Those guys rise and fall by the day, seemingly, so it’s very hard to follow who is rising and who is falling.
The draft isn’t until early June, so there’s a lot that needs to play out between now and then. Gang in there for another month month or so and we’ll have a better idea who will be available.
arent the upcoming college and high school seasons a HUGE factor in guys value at the draft?
Makes it rather impossible to project much this early I would think.
Yes, exactly right. The guys like Alvarez and Smoak are players that have been touted for years, and regardless of their upcoming seasons will likely go in the top five.
Projecting the MLB draft 4 months in advance is like projecting the NFL draft a year and a half in advance… It’s an inexact science, to say the least ;-)
I am really not concerned with the Mets farm system because of the amont of high picks in this year’s draft and the amount of young, high-ceiling guys. The Mets are in a position to win while rebuilding their farm system at the same time over the next few years.
Any comments on Angel Calero? He is a 20yr old Venezuelan lhp who is over 6ft tall and threw a no-hitter last year in rookie ball Kingsport. He ended the year with the PSL Mets rookie team
He doesn’t have an out pitch against righties, which poses obvious problems. He’s young and projectable enough and has decent stuff, so he might be worth watching.
nyr2k2 where are you getting all your great info?
Thanks for sharing it with us, much appreciated!
All over the place. I’m passionate about following prospects (MLB and NHL) almost as much as I am about my big-league clubs.
I have subscriptions to BA, BP, InsidePitch (which is Mets only scouting), a couple Roto sites, etc… I also get out to as many minor league games as possible, which was much easier when we had teams in Hagerstown, MD and Norfolk, VA (I live in DC). I’ll also check out Cyclones and B-Mets games whenever I’m back up in NY. Scouts and team coaches are incredibly easy to approach and generally are more than willing to discuss any player with you.
Hey nyr2k2, you having anything on Moviel. I’ve heard Callis say he ‘could be a monster’ soon. Chris Young comparisons are made. Ever seen him?
He’s damn near 7 foot, which is ridiculous. He’s pretty much releasing the ball on top of the batter, which makes it really difficult to read his pitches. At the same time, he reportedly has a lot of difficulty repeating his throwing motion, which leads to wildness and poor control.
His fastball sits in the low 90s and occassionally touches 94. I’d imagine with his frame and refine mechanics, he’d get another MPH or two.
His curveball is tight and has good break. He seems to be scared to throw his changeup unless he’s got two strikes on the hitter.
If he can learn to better repeat his delivery and stay on top of his pitches, he could be a very good pitcher. That fastball of his has the change to be a plus-plus pitch.
The best part of that whole article was…
“A 2009 big-league debut is a distinct possibility.”
So FMart comes up in 2009 and either A) Starts or B) Platoons. Great to have. Especially considering Alou will probably be done by then.
God, I love my Mets!
I’ll add that I like the bit about Flores having “the potential to have plus-plus raw power.” That’s basically saying he has the potential to have potential power.