Q&A: Kevin Goldstein on Mets Hitting Prospects
Last week at Baseball Prospectus, prospect guru Kevin Goldstein announced his Top 11 Prospect List for the Mets.
…i had the chance to talk quite extensively with Kevin about the Mets organization, his rankings and the draft…it’s a long interview, so i broke it up in to three parts…the first of which ran yesterday, which dealt with the team’s overall system and the coming draft…today i will talk with him about the team’s position prospects, and tomorrow i will talk with him about the pitchers…
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Jordan Zakarin: You rank Wilmer Flores very high, but he hasn’t gotten the attention other recent Latin signees got for the Mets, like Fernando Martinez and Deolis Guerra. He’s already a huge kid; how does he compare to guys like Martinez and the Giants’ Angel Villalona, and what can we expect to see from him? Is he on a similar fast track?
Kevin Goldstein: I’m not sure he deserves the same attention. Martinez was the top international talent the year he signed, and Guerra was arguably the top arm. Flores is more of one of the better international talents, and those guys tend to not get as much heat. He’s not really in Villalona’s class, remember that Villalona got three times as much money, and probably could have gotten even more if he played it differently.
Flores is a very good talent, but those guys had elite-level reports when they hit the market. Timetable wise, they’re not the same, Flores will just get some GCL at-bats this year, and nothing is decided beyond that.
Jordan Zakarin: But at such a young age, and given his size, it does seem like the sky is the limit for a guy like him, even if it’s way beyond in the future.
Kevin Goldstein: Sure, he has a very high ceiling, and that’s why he’s fourth on the list. It says something about his talent, as well as something about the Mets system.
Jordan Zakarin: On that same thread, while skimping on the draft, the Mets have put some heavy emphasis on their Latin signees – who else in the organization has a chance to make a big jump onto the 2009 Top 11 list? 3B Jeffry Marte, maybe the other, younger Pedro Martinez?
Kevin Goldstein: On a tools level, I’d still take Pena or Legares over those two.
Jordan Zakarin: What’s the word on Legares?
Kevin Goldstein: He’s still very young, and very impressive on a tools/athleticism basis. Like Pena, he turned out to be more than a little too raw to be ready for a full-season league last year, but the talent is definitely still there.
Jordan Zakarin: Okay, well turning to the headliner of the Mets’ Latin efforts, how good can Fernando Martinez be, and is this the year he starts putting up the type of numbers people expect?
Kevin Goldstein: If anyone knew that, they’d be rich.
Jordan Zakarin: Can you give me odds then, so I can make that bet?
Kevin Goldstein: Some think he can, but some thought he would in 2007, no? There are people out there who still think he’s a monster prospect, with true impact potential. Yes the age/level thing is a huge mitigating factor, but it can also only take you so far. I think he’d be best served with a return to Double-A, where he’ll still probably be the youngest guy in the league. You want odds? What type of numbers do people expect?
Jordan Zakarin: True, it’s hard to predict the future. But in a few years, when he’s presumably a big leaguer, what can Mets fans expect out of him?
Kevin Goldstein: That’s the thing with him, and why he’s a four-star guy instead of a five. There are scouts and officials out there who think he’s a future MVP candidate. There are scouts and officials out there who think he’s a solid left-fielder at best. His projection is still very wide-ranging.
Jordan Zakarin: What causes the chasm? Does he lack something some people project him to have?
Kevin Goldstein: The chasm is the fact that the performance just hasn’t caught up to the tools yet. Some people think he can hit 30+ home runs a year, yet he hit four last year.
Jordan Zakarin: One ‘07 pick, 1B Lucas Duda, really seemed to surprise with his production last year. Thoughts on him?
Kevin Goldstein: He’s a weird guy. I mean he was a big, big talent coming out of high school, and in college, he did pretty much nothing. So we really need to see more before we get too excited.
Jordan Zakarin: Do some hitters just do better as pros than in college, for whatever reason? Wood versus metal, etc?
Kevin Goldstein: That list is very, very small. Minute, even.
Jordan Zakarin: Tools-wise, is he someone to keep an eye on?
Kevin Goldstein: Sure, but only because he’s in the Mets system, and there aren’t a lot of other options. Just remember, he’s a first-baseman, and he’s 22 years old and proven nothing. If you can’t project him as an every day big leaguer with a .850 or .900 OPS, what is he then?
Jordan Zakarin: Another 1B, who just missed your list, Nick Evans, put up good numbers in the FSL at a more age appropriate level.
Kevin Goldstein: He did indeed. Scouts just aren’t really on him. He’s a really solid hitter, but again, you are talking about a first baseman, and a right-handed one at that. Those guys don’t need to put up good numbers to be good prospects, they need to put up GREAT numbers.
Jordan Zakarin: So he really needs to prove it at every level, as well.
Kevin Goldstein: Not just prove it, IMprove it. .286/.374/.476 is good, maybe even really good, but if you’re going to be a first baseman, you have to be elite.
Jordan Zakarin: Even in the FSL? That surely holds stats down
Kevin Goldstein: Those are good numbers there — they’re not elite-level though.
Jordan Zakarin: And the other first base prospect, Mike Carp, had a real bad year, but then he gets named to the AFL top prospect team. What gives?
Kevin Goldstein: You got me, because he did next to nothing in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .243 without a single home run in over 107 at-bats. Scouts I speak to see a lack of back speed, and a profound inability to doing anything at all against lefthanders. I know I’m sounding like a broken record here, but first base prospects can’t have any offensive weaknesses.
Jordan Zakarin: So there’s no real confidence that he can have a bounce back year?
Kevin Goldstein: Not a ton. I’d wager that he’s better, but not better enough.
