Last week at Baseball Prospectus, prospect guru Kevin Goldstein announced his Top 11 Prospect List for the Mets.
…i had the chance to talk quite extensively with Kevin about the Mets organization, his rankings and the draft…it’s a long interview, so i broke it up in to three parts…the first of which ran Tuesday, which dealt with the team’s overall system and the coming draft…yesterday, i talked with him about the team’s position prospects, and today i will talk with him about the pitchers…
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Jordan Zakarin: One of the most intriguing guys in the Mets system is Scott Moviel – obviously has a high ceiling, but the Mets were seemingly recently burned with a big right hander in Mike Pelfrey. Are there legit similarities there, and can Moviel perhaps turn into a top of the line prospect?
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t see the similarities really, other than the tall, right-handedness.
Jordan Zakarin: So that’s a good thing?
Kevin Goldstein: Moviel is all projection, while Pelfrey has some really good stuff now — at least the fastball. Moviel is one of those players you can dream on — he could turn into a top of the line prospect, but keep in mind, that every system has this guy. The big, projectable pitcher. A few of them turn into really nice prospects, and most fall by the wayside. Still, to even have a player with that chance is a good thing.
Jordan Zakarin: Sounds like the Mets were pleasantly surprised with his initial performance, though.
Kevin Goldstein: Yes — he took very well to coaching, showed some early feel for a changeup, and threw more strikes than expected.
Jordan Zakarin: Okay, another draftee with upside, Brant Rustich – some say he had some of the best pure stuff in the draft – if he really did gain that command he showed in his pro debut, what’s his ceiling, and is there a chance he’s a starter?
Kevin Goldstein: He’s probably a reliever in the end. Rustich has very good raw stuff, but whoever said it was the best in the draft was smoking something. His fastball/slider combination gives him two plus pitches that profile best in relief, as he doesn’t have much of a changeup. The control hit seems like a total fluke, based on what he did at UCLA, and the fact that he wasn’t throwing strikes in Hawaii.
Jordan Zakarin: He was hurt while at UCLA though, right? He said that really hurt his command, when I talked to him.
Kevin Goldstein: Sure, but not always. It’s not like he was a world beater when his finger was fine. He’s mechanically a little messy, and until he consistently throws strikes, he’s not going to have a lot of believers in him… For a guy with an ERA over six in college, to still go in the second round, that tells you his stuff is pretty impressive — but he’s got a long way to go.
Jordan Zakarin: Okay, another draftee coming from the pen — Eddie Kunz – set up man, or potential closer? Did his tough pro debut take away some of the luster, or was he just tired from non-stop pitching the last two years?
Kevin Goldstein: I see him as almost a borderline closer. It could happen, but I’m not sold on it yet. I don’t think his debut really dinged him too much, even Mets knew that he wasn’t one of those college fast-track relievers and might take a bit to develop.
Jordan Zakarin: So he’s not on the Joe Smith track, per se?
Kevin Goldstein: Not unless he starts throwing a ton of strikes.
…as i said on Tuesday, big thanks to kevin, who took out a huge chunk of time to do another interview with me…
…it seems that the Mets still have some decent prospects, it’s just more an issue of a lack of real close-to-the-majors, high-ceiling guys…the thing is, kevin is more optimistic than i had anticipated about the big picture, maybe because the big league team has a real chance to win…but, there are some younger, further away, high-ceiling guys there, which is better than having just a bunch of future utilitymen…
…as i keep saying, this draft, in which the Mets will have three picks inside the first 33, will be very, very important…
{ 28 comments }
Jordan: The Mets prospects are good, right!?
Kevin: No.
Jordan: They’re good, right!?
Kevin: No.
Jordan: I’ve heard great things, they’re going to be great!
Kevin: No.
LOL…I think you’ve summed it up nicely.
These were my thoughts exactly. I’m glad someone else mentioned it first.
I wish I liked these Prospect threads more.
They’ll be more exciting after the June draft.
I put much more weight in Rustich’s performance at Kingsport/Brooklyn than what he did in Hawaii. Working with the Mets SS teams, he was given hands-on instruction on a daily basis from staff with a vested interest in his success. In that situation, he thrived. With a new set of coaches from various organizations in Hawaii, he reverted to his poor control.
I think it’s time for a confidence poll with pitchers and catchers reporting
“the Mets were seemingly recently burned with a big right hander in Mike Pelfrey.”
So, it’s official, Pelfrey sucks? The guy just turned 24, has only made 17 ML starts, the GM has stated publicly that would not include him in a trade for Johan Santana and you’ve decided he’s a failure.
I thought the same thing, Pelfrey is not done.
Pelfrey is still going to be a star. You heard it here first.
Once he gets his head straight (basically figures out who he is as a pticher), perfects that slider, and develops his change up a bit, a little control and he will be really good.
Gee, I am old enough to remember when young pitchers actually took some time to develop and perfect their stuff. They weren’t expected to dominate in their first taste at 22, or be labelled a bust after a couple of games.
Oh, and I would love to see Pedro spend some time with Pelf this spring working on his change up. Pedro has about 10 of them, so 1 must be suited for Pelfrey.
Yeah, but will he listen and learn or as he said the other day, revert to his fasball only pitching?
Thanks for bringing this up. As soon as I saw that first question with reference to Pelfrey, I declined to read any further.
Jordan, other than Pelfrey perhaps being a failure on your 2007 fantasy baseball squad, exactly what is your justification for implying such a thing in reality baseball?
I knew they should load up on the Oswalt/Pedro short guys for pitching!
Rustich is a perfect example of where a teams coaching staff can earn it’s money. If he has good (above average?) “stuff”, and has shown the ability to control his pitches, then they need to turn him into a solid pitcher.
If he has some mechanical flaws, teach him the right way to throw, and then keep working on it while he is in the minors.
I know, it can take time to unlearn old habits, but well worth the payoff. Or you can be like the Pirates and just let guys fling the ball around with no instruction!
Anyway, based on his Minors performance last year, Rustich does have potential to be good.
How did they end up with the 3 picks inside the first 33?
18. Mets (from Braves for loss of Tom Glavine)
22. Mets
COMPENSATION ROUND
3. Mets (for loss of Type A Tom Glavine to Braves)
just looking at that makes me excited for the draft. ive never been excited for a baseball draft like i am for NFL drafts but this year is definitely going to be different.
Hopefully there is a future starter in there somewhere.
Do we get anything for Green leaving?
Is Mike Carp at ST?
Green hasn’t signed anywhere yet, and the Mets didn’t offer him arbitration, so it doesn’t matter.
That’s why they got nothing for LoDuca, they declined arbitration.
Perhaps someone could explain to me why we insist on fast-tracking our prospects. There must be a reason.
I watch the kids in my town in Little Leagueand Highschool and always felt that it was important for them to have success or dominate at one level before pushing forward. Can it be much different in the confidence level of 18, 19 20 year olds?
I’ve noticed that if you try to post with a link in the comment, the post disappears.
Anyway, this site has a 2008 Mock Draft:
My MLB Draft dot com slash MLB-Mock-Draft-2008
Interesting to see the types of players available and who the Mets might get.
I was struggling with the disappearing post thing earlier. I tried embedding the link and all, to no avail.
Jordan,
I’m more interested in our SP depth – Jon Niese, Nathan Vineyard, and Nick Carr in particular. I know they’re either raw or far away, but I’d like to hear about them.
Also, there are some really good prospect discussions going on among fans out there. You just have to look. But you have to keep in mind the 2-6 year development time for prospects. This isn’t the NBA or NFL draft. By the time some baseball prospects finally make the bigs, their draft classmates in other sports have already played and hit free agency…
You know, the more and more I read this Goldstein character, the more crazy it drives me. Can he just, for once, say that he disagrees w/ Jordan? Why must somebody be “smoking something?” From me, the KING of sarcastic, his smarmy, slick comments drive me CRAZY!!! Don’t talk to him about the Mets youngsters anymore, because he will NEVER have anything even remotely decent to say about them…
Jordan – any thoughts on this from yesterday ?
2008-02-13 20:57:20
Not to be putting anyone in particular, down, but I have always wondered about “gurus” coming up with these reports on recent draftees and Minor Lg prospects…. are they actual scouts, working for a ML club or are they journalists with access to lots of reports and therefore just repeating info received from other qualified sources ?
Have any of the gurus played in the minors, to know what these young players are going through ? I would think having 10 or 20 years of experience watching hundreds or thousands of prospects develop is what makes one a guru / authority, giving one the insight to recognize natural talents /insticts / tools compared to all those other prospects.
It’s interesting to note that Goldstein is a major Mets fan.
So glad to see there others who out there who still value Pelf & his potential…. back in Nov / Dec you would have thought Mike was throwing in the high 70’s by the postings of his detractors.
here are career totals for Garza vs. Pelfry:
# starts, w-l, ip, hits, hrs, bb, k, era, whip, bat ave against
24 (8-13) 133 ip 158 hits 14 55 105 4.47 1.60 .297 baa
17 (5-9) 94 ip 110 hits 7 51 58 5.55 1.71 .300 baa
Obviously Garza pulled in a major talent in the trade with TB. however, comparing the #’s – the performances are fairly similar except, Garza gives up 1 less er/9 & he has more k’s /9
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