Q&A: Kevin Goldstein on Mets Pitching Prospects
Last week at Baseball Prospectus, prospect guru Kevin Goldstein announced his Top 11 Prospect List for the Mets.
…i had the chance to talk quite extensively with Kevin about the Mets organization, his rankings and the draft…it’s a long interview, so i broke it up in to three parts…the first of which ran Tuesday, which dealt with the team’s overall system and the coming draft…yesterday, i talked with him about the team’s position prospects, and today i will talk with him about the pitchers…
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Jordan Zakarin: One of the most intriguing guys in the Mets system is Scott Moviel – obviously has a high ceiling, but the Mets were seemingly recently burned with a big right hander in Mike Pelfrey. Are there legit similarities there, and can Moviel perhaps turn into a top of the line prospect?
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t see the similarities really, other than the tall, right-handedness.
Jordan Zakarin: So that’s a good thing?
Kevin Goldstein: Moviel is all projection, while Pelfrey has some really good stuff now — at least the fastball. Moviel is one of those players you can dream on — he could turn into a top of the line prospect, but keep in mind, that every system has this guy. The big, projectable pitcher. A few of them turn into really nice prospects, and most fall by the wayside. Still, to even have a player with that chance is a good thing.
Jordan Zakarin: Sounds like the Mets were pleasantly surprised with his initial performance, though.
Kevin Goldstein: Yes — he took very well to coaching, showed some early feel for a changeup, and threw more strikes than expected.
Jordan Zakarin: Okay, another draftee with upside, Brant Rustich – some say he had some of the best pure stuff in the draft – if he really did gain that command he showed in his pro debut, what’s his ceiling, and is there a chance he’s a starter?
Kevin Goldstein: He’s probably a reliever in the end. Rustich has very good raw stuff, but whoever said it was the best in the draft was smoking something. His fastball/slider combination gives him two plus pitches that profile best in relief, as he doesn’t have much of a changeup. The control hit seems like a total fluke, based on what he did at UCLA, and the fact that he wasn’t throwing strikes in Hawaii.
Jordan Zakarin: He was hurt while at UCLA though, right? He said that really hurt his command, when I talked to him.
Kevin Goldstein: Sure, but not always. It’s not like he was a world beater when his finger was fine. He’s mechanically a little messy, and until he consistently throws strikes, he’s not going to have a lot of believers in him… For a guy with an ERA over six in college, to still go in the second round, that tells you his stuff is pretty impressive — but he’s got a long way to go.
Jordan Zakarin: Okay, another draftee coming from the pen — Eddie Kunz – set up man, or potential closer? Did his tough pro debut take away some of the luster, or was he just tired from non-stop pitching the last two years?
Kevin Goldstein: I see him as almost a borderline closer. It could happen, but I’m not sold on it yet. I don’t think his debut really dinged him too much, even Mets knew that he wasn’t one of those college fast-track relievers and might take a bit to develop.
Jordan Zakarin: So he’s not on the Joe Smith track, per se?
Kevin Goldstein: Not unless he starts throwing a ton of strikes.
…as i said on Tuesday, big thanks to kevin, who took out a huge chunk of time to do another interview with me…
…it seems that the Mets still have some decent prospects, it’s just more an issue of a lack of real close-to-the-majors, high-ceiling guys…the thing is, kevin is more optimistic than i had anticipated about the big picture, maybe because the big league team has a real chance to win…but, there are some younger, further away, high-ceiling guys there, which is better than having just a bunch of future utilitymen…
…as i keep saying, this draft, in which the Mets will have three picks inside the first 33, will be very, very important…
