As noted earlier, Carlos Beltran reported to camp today, earlier than expected. He took some swings, then talked with reporters.
According to SNY’s Kevin Burkhardt, when asked about the division, Beltran gave a bland response. However, before walking away from reporters, he smiled, laughed and said:
“With (Santana), I have no doubt we’re going to win our division. I have no doubt about that…So, this year, tell Jimmy Rollins we are the team to beat.”
…ding, ding, ding…let the games begin, folks…
For more on Beltran, who may miss the first few spring training games, thanks to off-season surgery on his knees, read blog posts at the New York Post, Newsday and the Star-Ledger.
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I can only hope he’s as succesful at predictions as Mr. Rollins.
“Without Santana, we felt we had a chance to win our division last year,” Beltran said.
Really?
I thought the reason Rollins’ comment got into the Mets’ fans heads was the guarantee the Mets were going to at least win the division.
yea-ya carlos
I love it!
Now let’s see him play 162 games and win the MVP.
Maybe not 162 but how about 150, Ill take that
even if he plays 162 games and has a great season he will only be 2nd in votes, because wright is wining mvp, but going 1 2 in mvp voting would be amazing
I know it sounds awesome, but it doesn’t work like that, they would steal votes from eachother and someone else would probably win.
Not for nothing, I believe not 1 mvp has every won the world series. I am fine with everyone playing there part having solid years no mvp winner and winning the world series
Joe Morgan won MVP in ‘75 and ‘76. The Reds won the WS in both those years.
I just skimmed the NL list. Mantle, Berra, and Maris probably won a WS and MVP in the same year as well.
I have heard that being stated it could have possible been in more recent past but not sure.
Mike Schmidt, 1980.
Hell, thrice in not-too-distant memory the MVPs went through us to get their titles.
Reggie in ‘73. Gimpy Kirk Gibson, ‘88. And Giambi got the MVP the year of the Subway Series.
Unrelated to the post, but there has been no mention of this yet from Matt.
Baseball Prospectus PECOTA statistical prediction system forecasts 96 wins and a 1st place finish for the Mets. On top of that it predicts 84 wins and a 3rd place finish for the Phillies.
From the article:
“And the Mets really might be the best team in baseball, regardless of what league they happen to play in.”
Matt needs a better article submission process then straight up email. He should consider a form or something.
what do they attribute this to? don’t give away the whole article, but what are the projections for pedro, delgado, sanchez?
Pedro they predict 125IP, 3.37ERA 1.17WHIP
Delgado an .815 OPS, 21HR
Sanchez 60IP 3.60ERA and a 1.32WHIP
I am not up to speed on how PECOTA handles guys coming off of injuries. I think PECOTA may be duped (like most people) into thinking Delgado had a decline year last year, where as the splits indicate a weak 1st half due to injury and an almost normal 2nd half.
Pedro’s IP seems low to me, but I can understand this prediction. I would have guessed 140-150IP, but 125 isn’t far fetched either. We would all be happy with 25 5inning starts from Pedro I think.
According to PECOTA, the Met’s strength really is based in it’s pitching. 809RS places them solidly in the middle of the NL back, but the 665RA predicted easily makes them the best pitching staff in either the NL or AL.
The bullpen looks suprisingly good on PECOTA paper.
What’s also interesting are the VORP ratings. There are two guys who essentially separate the Mets from the rest of the pack in the NL East: Johan Santana and David Wright.
Wright they have at .305 / .395 / .540 with 30 HR 119 R 104 RBI 21 SB.
Santana at 17-8 230 IP 2.94 ERA 1.08 WHIP 244/62 K/BB.
It actually looks like a small step back for Wright, but he still leads the team in their projected VORP at 69.4. Santana is second at 61.2. Reyes is third at 46.1 and Beltran fourth at 46.0.
By contrast, the Phillies (who they have finishing third in the division) top four in this category are Chase Utley at 52.3, Cole Hamels at 46.8, Jimmy Rollins at 44.8, and Ryan Howard at 42.6.
The Braves they have second at 86 wins. Their VORP leader is Chipper Jones at 58.4. Second is Mark Texiera at 45.3, third John Smoltz at 44.0, and fourth Kelly Johnson at 37.2.
Also, in regard to the bullpen, the reason it looks so good is because the innings leader is Aaron Heilman with. This is a guy that’s approached 90 each of the last three seasons. But they seem to like the Mets to have a lot of guys that go 50-60 and do pretty well, and a lot more innings in the rotation. They like Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano a lot, and they like Sosa, Lugo, and Shoeneweiss more than I expected.
96 wins with 125 innings out of pedro? wow. maybe i’m being too optimistic but i’d be really disappointed if we didn’t get more out of him. do they have high hopes for pelfrey?
They actually like Pelfrey almost as much as Perez. Pelfrey is 24 GS 130 IP 8-8 4.32 ERA. Perez is 25 GS 150 IP 4.22 ERA. They seem to have left a few spot starters off the dept chart. I only count 147 GS from the six of them.
Comparing it to the Phillies chart, they’ve included some spot starters for them (J.D Durbin, Travis Blackley, Carlos Carrasco). Pelfrey’s the only one for the Mets, but my guess is they weren’t able to do Tony Armas Jr. in time and for whatever reason neglected Jason Vargas.
For what its worth, all three Phillies spot starters have ERAs over 5.00, and none of them makes more than 13 starts, so BP does have Pelfrey making up a lot of the difference for the Mets.
I think we may all be overly optimistic w/r/t Pedro, the likelihood of an injury will at least scare willie into caution, at worst take him out for a month at a time.
I think PECOTA is probably giving to much credit to Sosa, Schoenweis and Joe Smith. At the same time I think Perez is entirely misunderstood by such a system. If the Jacket continues to work his magic then Perez is potentially our number 2 starter imo.
So Ruddy Lugo is touted as a good pitcher by the statheads? Thats great because I project him as our surprise darkhorse out of the pen. He has a nasty fastball and great stuff. Watch him have a great season for us as projected.
So why even play the season?
The statheads have it all figured out.
Not all figured out, but more figured out than the people who think “grit” is more important than OBP.
PhillR,
“Unrelated to the post, but there has been no mention of this yet from Matt.”
Ummmmm….The BP projections and so forth was the subject of the post immediately preceeding this one. You may want to comment there. And, you know, get your eyes checked.
“Matt needs a better article submission process then straight up email. He should consider a form or something.”
He usually has a form on the left side…not there today. Hard to blame him for not having a form if the entries will be “dude, you have to post about subject X, how can you have missed it?” when there already is a post about subject X on the site.
Earlier in the day, the Beltran post came before the PECOTA post, which came after people mentioned it on this post. But there’s no reason to short Matt for it.
THAT is what we all needed to hear.
OHHH SNAP!!!
Oh for God’s sake. That’s all we need is for our most sensitive player to have more attention brought to himself. I’m sure he’ll have no problem playing in Philly 3 road series this year while being booed nonstop. Anyone remember how he played while being booed nonstop in Houston the last three seasons (10 Games, 10-42, 2 HRs, 5 RBI, 9 K)?
Just shut up and play. I hate this bulletin board material – especially from a guy with skin as thick as a 6-year-old girl.
shutup, man. carlos beltran has arrived at spring training sporting balls the size of grapefruits. embrace it!
Great, he can talk the talk. Let’s see him walk the walk.
go root for the yankees.
walk the walk? save 2005 that’s all the guy has ever done
You should be more careful with that line–it’s an antique.
Perfectly put…. EMBRACE IT! Carlos is bringing a new attitude, a kick ass attitude, and I think the whole team is as well.
I love it.
I hope he says “And tell Brett Myers that you shouldn’t beat your wife”
I agree with you…somewhat… but I also like to see passion and swagger from our most bland guy
What Met DOESN’T get booed in Philly? You could be Johnny the Batboy and they’d probably still want to throw beer bottles at your head.
You really think he won’t get extra heat in Philly for saying this? Were you there on Opening Day last year to see the way us Mets fans treated Rollins after he said the same thing verbatim? This will not be the standard 5 second booing that every Met receives after their name is announced. This will be Houston-esque, 15 second booing every time he touches a ball in the outfield or stands in the batter’s box.
Maybe you’ve forgotten about Beltran’s fragile psyche?
Maybe if we give hime more support at home… he could handle the booing on the road.. Like Larry Jones does
why don’t you go cry about it. How about we wait to see what happens. I for one think it was funny and good to see Beltran lighten up a bit like that, and also show some balls. Will he get booed? Sure, but so what, stop fretting about details man, you’re freaking for no reason. These guys are professionals and this stuff means little to nothing. Beltran’s play in a couple games in Philly will not win or lose us the division, but Beltran’s play over an entire season will win it for us.
I don’t really think the booing is directly related to his performance in Houston. At least it’s hard to say after only 42 ABs considering the guy does not post a high average overall anyway and does strike out at a decent clip. If it hurt him to know that that many people hated him, would it only affect him while batting? I’m sure the fans in the OF are yelling at him constantly too. As at least the past two seasons he hasn’t had trouble showing he’s dead on focused in the field with two spectacular standout plays.
History repeats itself – he doesn’t do well in pressure situations. You guys will be the same guys that will be pissed at Beltran in Septmeber when he’s hit .200 at CBP all year with more Ks than hits.
BTW, it’s not just “a few series at CBP”. These guys are potentially our top competition – every game against them is huge. What’s more, they could make the playoffs with us (with one of our teams in the WC) – than is it that farfetched to believe that Beltran’s play in Philly might cost us the NLCS if we have to play them?
I’m a fan just like all of you guys, but I can take my pom poms off for long enough to see that this was a dumb thing for Carlos to do, and it will probably hurt his performance in potentially huge games for us this year.
man, you’re such a worrier, relax, an upbeat Beltran is a good thing, you’re acting like one little comment is the end of the world. And now you’re arguement sounds like you do’nt even like Beltran as a player, like you want him off the team. It’s kind of embarassing, because pretty much every other team in the league would love to have this guy in CF, except for some Met fans, its pathetic. Seriously, you sound like a crazy person. It’s february, relax man, relax.
I’ve come to terms with the fact that nothing Carlos Beltran does will ever make the vocal minority of Mets fans happy.
They hate him cause they say he is soft, but when he shows some cajones, they still hate him.
He can’t win.
I’m a big Carlos Beltran fan and I look forward to a big 2008 from him.
…and good for him for stoking the rivalry, baseball is supposed to be fun.
HAHAH WHATTT!!! I’m not even the biggest the beltran fan in the world because he’s soft…but the guys got talent and he’s got great numbers in the playoffs…but i guess there’s no pressure in the playoffs right?…Just relax and let these guys have some fun.
I’m a huge Beltran fan, but I’m naturally pessimistic as a Mets fan.
I’ve seen him melt in big spots time and again (look at his numbers in games close and late, or with runners on base & 2 outs, or with RISP & 2 outs). Why is it that when you expect a player to continue a pretty clear and obvious trend, you’re an excessive worrier who “should go root for the yankees”?
Sure he had the best postseason of any player ever for the Astros in 2004, but he’s not done much in a big spot since. What does he have like 2 walkoff hits in the last three years?
I love the guy and believe that when he’s on, he can carry us as much as any other player in MLB. I just don’t think he needs to put any more needless pressure on himself considering his obviously fragile psyche, that’s all. Didn’t realize that made me a hater, or a yankee fan.
Ok, let’s look at the numbers you pointed out, shall we??
First let me note Beltran’s overall career numbers… In his career, Beltran has posted a .280-.354-.496-.850 line in his career.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at his situational numbers…
From the 7th inning on, Beltran has posted a .275-.356-.492-.849 line… That’s almost exactly consistent with his overall career numbers…
With runners in scoring position, Beltran has posted a .308-.384-.540-.924 line… That’s significantly better than his overall career numbers…
With RISP and 2 outs, Beltran has posted a .278-.373-.488-.861 line… Keep in mind that Beltran is a big time threat and pitchers most certainly are careful with him in these situations… This is why his IsoD rises a little bit in these situations. He is very patient with RISP and he is not afraid to take the free pass if a pitcher is giving it to him. With that said, that’s STILL better than his overall career numbers.
The rest of Beltran’s RISP splits are phenomenal. In fact, Beltran has performed markedly better with runners on base than he has with nobody on in his career.
I refuse to look at “close and late” splits because they are ridiculous and useless. It’s ludicrous to pigeonhole situations that specifically, it tells you absolutely nothing about a player. Even still, if you looked at those splits, you’d likely see that Beltran varies wildly from year-to-year… Just like EVERY PLAYER. Why? Because you’re talking about a 50-60 at bat sample size per season in that situation.
Now… I don’t believe in “clutchness”. I believe some players are able to regulate their heartbeat and such in those situations better than others, but I don’t think it has THAT much of an impact. Generally, if given a big enoguh sample size, a player’s “clutch” numbers will conform to their overall career numbers. There are very few exceptions, but they do exist. These are outliers and there is no real conclusion to me made from them.
In other words, the best anyone can say about “clutchness” is that it MIGHT exist but probably doesn’t.
Now, even beyond all that, your argument doesn’t even come close to holding water, because the splits you suggest we look at as if we’re not resourceful enough to take it upon ourselves to do so, actually argue AGAINST your point.
So, in conclusion… You are wrong, dead wrong. Even if you look at Beltran’s career numbers on the road – the corollary to your theory that he isn’t clutch was that he doesn’t play well in a harsh environment – you will see that Beltran actually performs a little bit better on the road than he does at home.
Sorry if this comment seems harsh, I don’t mean it that way. But you are wrong, plain and simple. Beltran is a very, very good player, regardless of the situation. Not to mention he makes insane plays in the field literally all the time.
That was by far the best analysis I have every read to say that clutch doesn’t exist. I have been trying for a long time to explain to people why clutch doesn’t exist which clearly the main point is small sample size and over a long period of time they will confirm to the regular avg (see Derek Jeter/Captain Clutch).
Good job man
Stop being a puss dude! ;)
Yeah, his career numbers are good – 7 years of which came in KC with 10,000 people in the stands. Look at his “clutch” numbers in NY with the spotlight on him – outside of his MVP quality ‘06 season and a couple stellar weeks in October of ‘04, it’s a different story.
And what exactly is wrong with “close and late” stats? How are ABs after the seventh inning with the game close “useless”? Granted, it’s a small sample size each year, but it’s a fair stat nonetheless. It’s a stat that measures how well a player plays with the game on the line. Wouldn’t those “useless” stats be the most telling?
not if the amount of AB’s you get aren’t able to paint the entire picture. If you don’t get enough at bats, statistics mean nothing. The point he’s proving is that these “clutch” stats are usually always in line with the career numbers, thats just how it is. If you look at a small sample size or whatever you so choose, you can make the numbers say whatever you want. You can only get a true picture by looking at the long haul.
By virtue of the fact that it is a small sample size the numbers are unable to convey valuable information. They will swing in either direction based as much on random variation as anything else.
It would be like taking a players batting average after the first 3 games of the season as indicative of the players overall ability. It just doesn’t tell you anything.
Also close and late is just silly. If a guy hits a 3 run bomb down 4 in the 5th inning, and the team ties it in the 9th with another guys solo shot, who is to say which is more valuable or harder to do? In individual appearances players can go either way, sometimes the pressure will help them and sometimes it wont, but ultimatly over the course of their careers these all add up to results inline with the rest of their career numbers.
I hear you guys, and you make fair points about sample size, but here are the Close and Late stats since leaving KC just for the sake of argument:
04: .274 (73 ABs)
05: .226 (84 ABs)
06: .297 (64 ABs)
07: .164 (55 ABs)
That’s nearly 300 ABs total with an average significantly lower than his .280 career mark. 300 ABs is more than half a full season’s worth of ABs. These numbers mean nothing at all?
I mean, I don’t want to come across as a hater, because I really like Beltran as a player, but I’ve always viewed him as one of the last guys I want up in a big spot late in the game. I can admit when I’m wrong, but I just don’t see how these numbers don’t hold some water.
it’s about the variation in those numbers, one year he does better, the next he does worse then his career averages. Does that mean from one year to the next he suddenly learned how to be clutch? or forgot how to be clutch? I think that silly. From year to year you can’t make these judgements, and even addding up those years doesn’t paint a correct picture of individual situations. Every player is going to fail more then they succeed, in any situation, so maybe some high profile failures by him are swayed your view, but I also remember the game he won for us in the nlcs in ‘06, the walk off in like the 14th inning. Did he just get lucky with that? I just don’t see how these numbers, 50-80 ABs a year, tell us anything. Also how about his play in the field? Hasn’t he made enough amazing catches to save runs and games to prove he’s got a little bit of mettle?
His last 4 seasons he has bosted BAs of .276, .275, .266 and .267.
So in 2 of your example seasons he outperformed his norms and the other 2 he underperformed. Sounds like over the course of his career you will see it average out to be (drum roll) his career norms!
Well, I see what you guys are saying, and I suppose you’re all right. I guess I’ve just never really sat down and analyzed the numbers like this before, and it seems like whenever he comes up in a big spot as a Met, he strikes out, grounds weakly to second, or pops out on the infield.
No. Small sample sizes are influenced too much by variables.
The more chances a hitter gets, the more his results will conform to his career averages.
Say Player A has 60 at bats in “close and late” situations in a given season. He has 15 hits in those 60 at bats for a .250 batting average.
Player B also has 60 at bats in those situations. Player B recorded 20 hits for a .333 average.
First of all, the fact that 5 hits can mean an 83 point difference in average is a red flag anyways… But look further… Say 5 of Player A’s outs were screaming gappers that an outfielder made a phenomenal catch on.
Inversely, 5 of Player B’s hits were bloopers or questionable scoring by the scorekeeper.
What do we do then? Does that really tell us much about those two players compared to one another in that situation? No.
Small sample sizes mean you need to look closer at the circumstances of each at bat, because variables become more and more meaningful as the sample size shrinks.
That’s why, when looking at a player’s performance, it is virtually useless to look at a very small sample size.
When comparing two players in a situation in which a few hits can mean a huge difference in the overall results, you simply can’t use the same degree of superficiality and expect to reach accurate conclusions.
As for Beltran’s RISP with the Mets, they are consistent with my comment above. In his 3 seasons with the Mets, Beltran has a ,918 OPS on the road and a .803 OPS at home. Most recently – 2007 – Beltran was far more productive on the road than he was at home. What does this tell us? It tells us Beltran is a good hitter. That’s it. Nothing more, nothing less. You can assume to an extent that Beltran perhaps feels more comfortable on the road than at home… Considering we’re talking about a pretty good size sample, you can reasonably coem to that conclusion. However, correlation does not necessarily imply causation. It may be a coincidence that Beltran has performed better on the road than at home in the last 3 seasons. Either way, it doesn’t help your argument.
With runners in scoring position over his 3 seasons with the Mets, Beltran has a .931 OPS. He is a very good hitter, period. In any situation at any park.
With RISP and 2 outs, he has a .247 average, but also a .374 OBP and a .475 SLG for an ..849 OPS, 1 point lower than his career OPS. What is the reason for the dip in average and the rise in OBP? Well it could be any number of factors but the most likely factora are that 1. pitchers – quite simply – are very afraid of Beltran with runners on base and just don’t pitch to him and 2. Beltran becomes more patient with RISP than he is with nobody on. This, in fact, has a lot of data to support it. The guy changes his approach with runners on base, and he’s all the better for it. He is able to maintain productivity despite taking a hit in batting average with RISP and 2 outs. You can’t ask for much more out of a player.
In close and late situations in the 3 seasons he’s been with the Mets, Beltran has posted a .263-.379-.442-.821 line… This is slightly below his career OPS, but again, it looks as though he – rightly – changes his approach at the plate slightly in those situations. He is not afraid to walk, knowing that getting on base is the primary goal. Whether it’s a hit or walk, he needs to get on base to extend the inning. There have been countless studies that have proved that getting on base – through a hit or any other means – should be the fundamental goal for a hitter in most situations.
With that said, that sampel is in 224 at bats. Still a prety small sample, but looking at this data on the whole, it’s obvious Beltran is an extremely smart and patient hitter that often alters his approach at the plate according to the situation.
Expanding even further and looking at Beltran’s performance in close and late situations in each individual season with the Mets, we find that his 2007 performance greatly skews his overall performance in that situation over the past 3 seasons. Beltran’s OPS in 2007 in close and late situations was .627… Conversely, in 2006 his OPS in that situation was .943 and in 2005 Beltran’s OPS in that situation was .838…
This absolutely supports my assumption in my previous comment that Beltran’s numbers in close and late situations varies wildly from season to season. Why? Because we’re talking about 60-70 at bats per season in that situation. That means, if Beltran gets 5 or 6 more bloop hits in a given season, his performance in that situation is going to look astromically better, when in actuality, we’re talking a difference of a few hits. This is so for almost every player. Like I said, there are only very, very few outliers.
I hope you have seen my point here… Carlos Beltran is a very, very good hitter. He’s a very, very good hitter in all situations. Most players are either good hitters or not good hitters. In all situations. There is overwhelming data to support this.
Bill – That is the fundamental reason why analysis needs to be done in terms of personal observation but also in terms of statistical analysis…
You perceive that every time Beltran comes up in a big spot he doesn’t deliver because that’s what sticks out in your mind. I mean, Beltran struck out looking to end the 2006 NLCS with runners on base and a chance to tie the game. Seeing that is enough to make anyone pass judgement on him as a player.
But you can’t let those few instances skew your overall judgement… Baseball is a long, tedious, and all-encompassing game. It’s a game of streaks, both hot and cold. By that I mean that results cannot be judged – nor predicted – on a handful of chances… There are just way, way too many variables.
This is the very reason why many feel the playoffs are impossible to predict… Generally you expect the team with better personnel to win, but it doesn’t happen that way even close to as much as you would expect…
good job man, that sums it up quite nicely
I would like to envoke a quote from one of my favorite films to help paint this picture…
From Fight Club: “On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.”
This is exactly the concept we are trying to get at, the particulars are just a little different and inversed to an extent…
On a long enough timeline, a player’s performance in any situation will eventually conform to his career averages…
Derek Jeter is the poster child for this… Jeter lit it up in the playoffs in his first few seasons, yet if you look at his postseason totals now, they are very close to his career averages.
Few players acrue the number of at bats in the playoffs that Jeter has, but if they did, they would eventually conform to their career averages.
Wow, that was a pretty good analysis, MaskedMan, and it was very informative. I definitely see your point. I guess I’ll just have to work harder on remembering when Beltran actually does come through in these situations, and not be so pessimistic and dwell on his failures. I guess the pessimism, right or not, comes with being a life-long Mets fan.
Thanks darkstar, Phil, and anyone else who complimented me on my analysis…
Bill Buckner, I hope my comments didn’t seem harsh at all… I’m just trying to find answers just like anyone else. Since I began studying Sabermetrics and the like about 4 or 5 years ago, I have seen a light that I would have never seen otherwise.
Bill – Oh trust me, I know! I tend to be pessimistic at times as well. It comes with the territory of being a Mets fan.
With that said, we’re all hoping for the same thing, and when it comes down to it, we’re all brothers and sister in Mets fandom!
No worries, MM. They didn’t come across harsh at all, and I appreciate your analysis. You’ve succeeded in causing me to rethink my opinion on Beltran and the entire idea of being “clutch” in general.
Earlier, when I was attempting to defend my initial point, I was shocked when I looked up Jeter’s, David Ortiz’s, and ARod’s career situational numbers – they were all just about spot on with their respective overall career numbers. This all directly opposes the nicknames and regular lauding by sportswriters all over, and was an overwhelming concept to me considered that I had been “programmed” to consider how clutch each player was for the entire time that I’ve ever watched baseball. It all made sense to me as to why this was the case when I read your analysys.
Thanks again for the insight, it’s greatly appreciated.
well, that was good stuff. excellent analysis and good to see bill buckner come around on this. props to all.
this might be the best comment thread I’ve ever read on a message board in the history of Al Gore’s Internet. Reasoned, well thought out responses, and an original poster who came around and was persuaded by the “opposition” and graciously admitted so at the end. Good job…..A+ all around.
I, too, agree. A great read.
wow I’m seriously blown away by that conversation.. amazing, nicely done .. contrasted pretty largely by the phillies guy below eh?
Since we’re looking at Beltran’s numbers in Houston, here are his career numbers in CBP:
33 G, 132 AB, 40 H, .303 BA, 16 2B, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 14 BB, 26 K, 7 SB. I’m not too worried about him there.
Your also leaving out that amazing extra innings catch he had in Houston last year…Geez bulliten board material is what spices up that games, and it’s good to see from a player that should be one of our leaders since our other two Wright and Wagner seem to be bowing down to the phils.
u neglect to mention the guy made one the best clutch catches of the year out in CF in Houston last year…with the bases loaded in the 9th inning and 2 outs, Houston batter slams the ball into the deepest part of the park where there is an INCLINED HILL…
Beltran climbs the hill and makes a diving catch to save the game….Mets win the game in extra innings…
Don’t be surprised if Beltran is in the top 5 for MVP honors this year…
Did his mole make a statement?
His mole was mostly silent, but it’s reported as saying…
“and tell Tom Glavine that we replaced his old ass with a guy named Johan”
Actually, it was beltran’s mole that made the statement… This is why Beltran shies away from the media because he is never sure what crap his mole will talk…
Sidenote: When does Wagners Contract run out?
We have him for 2 more years
Thanks… I guess Nathan is not an option for us then
yeah i love nathan but hes old anyway…i wouldnt wanna give another 34 yr old a 4 yr contract again
get putz when he’s an FA.
A guy named Putz playing in NY better do well everytime out.
thats my boy…need that confidence
Bold words. I can never complain about a nice in your face to Rollins. Of course if they fail for some reason….this statement is going to look foolish. Let the games begin!!!!
I think we are reading a little too much into this. It sounds like he was just kidding around.
yeah, you’re spot on, he was having a little fun, baseball is fun, people want Beltran to loosen up, he does it, and people start freaking out. Man, I think Mets fans need to loosen up. It’s February! RELAX!
it’s just a parody of Jimmy Rollins lol nothing serious
I don’t buy the whole Beltran’s not clutch argument. Anyone who went on the postseason tear that he did in Houston in 2004 is clearly capable of performing under pressure. Does he consistently rise to the occasion? No. In my eyes Beltran is the player that he is, period, which happens to be a very good player, and he ebbs and flows through slumps and streaks and injury.
Everybody rode this team like crazy at the end of last season for showing no guts, no balls, no fire, and here’s a little dose of that from probably the last player anyone expected to provide it. Be happy!
They didn’t talk the talk OR walk the walk last year, and now they got the best pitcher on the planet and got some swagger. I can’t wait for April.
hell i can’t wait for march
How about this then:
THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PLAYER BEING CLUTCH OR NOT. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PLAYER BEING CLUTCH OR NOT.THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PLAYER BEING CLUTCH OR NOT.THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PLAYER BEING CLUTCH OR NOT.THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PLAYER BEING CLUTCH OR NOT.
Small sample sizes aside, take players in supposed “clutch” situations and over the course of their careers these numbers are right in line with their everyday numbers.
uh oh. i’m with you, man, but it’s an annoying uphill battle trying to convince baseball fans of it. this could take a while…
Tell them to look at Jeter. Captain Cologne/Clutch has fallen to his normal avg in the post-season
vcarver will be along to tell you that there is evidence showing that there are clutch players, but he won’t provide it.
probably because it doesn’t exist.
I agree 100%.
The “no such thing as clutch” argument is ludicrous. I concede 100% that in most cases when you analyze career-long close and late stats, they tend to line up with career stats or fluctuate in a mostly random manner. I would also agree that the “clutch” or “un-clutch” label is branded on to a lot of players without much to support it, and in most cases there’s no way in hell we could ever know who is or isn’t clutch, but if any of you have actually played baseball, or any sport, or done anything that held any meaning to you, you can’t deny the existence of the emotions that accompany it. I’m sorry, but whether the numbers support it or not, I know damn well that when my father came to watch me play in college with a large crowd and I came up with the bags juiced in a 2 run game in the 8th, it felt VERY different from the AB i had the week prior with no crowd around and the bases empty in a rout in the 5th inning. I also know that when I play hockey, as a goalie, the feeling I get when some nobody takes a slapshot from the point is markedly different from the feeling I get when the other team’s best winger comes in on a breakway in the 3rd period. We’re human beings, and so are they, and we all respond differently to those circumstances.
THANK YOU! numbers and stats are not everything in every situation!… if they were robots— well then maybe.
wow. the other non-clutch believers and i never thought of it that way. we all thought baseball players were computers! thank you for showing me the light.
Not saying you never thought of it that way, just saying if you personalize it you can’t deny it. Unless of course, you’ve never actually played sports…For me that’s the only logical explanation for the non-believers in clutch. Perhaps the statgeeks want to dehumanize the jocks that beat them up?
typical response. i still play baseball and i think there’s no such thing as clutch. just players who more often than not will perform better than other ones…because they’re better players. statistics are an indicator of performance, so you can’t really say “numbers aren’t everything!!1111.” maybe that’s true in hockey, but in baseball, that’s incredibly wrong.
every clutch situation is not the same either. So many factors go into what makes a situation clutch or not that turning it into a math problem is impossible… yea that;s right math guys i said it IMPOSSIBLE. human emotion can tell you that an AB in the world series in the bot 9th with 2 out and your team down by one is going to be a lot differant than a AB in the reg season. You deliver in the WS scenario your clutch.
I think to make it to the major leagues, every player must have some degree of that “intangible clutchness” thereby making their stats even out in the long run..
you certainly know it when you see it .. it’s not just in baseball, I see the ability to handle pressure in my job all of the time, some guys have it, some guys don’t, but over time, their work probably averages out….or they get fired and are never heard from again. If a player is not clutch, he will not have stats for us to analyze and argue about.
i think the sabermatrics guys do have a good poont I mean heck they have the numbers to back it up… it’s just in my opinion there is something more to it. Situations can get to you and certain players have a better time putting the adrenaline aside to do what they have to (whether that be consistant with thier career numbers or whatever) … some simply choke. that ones that can concentrate and focus I consider to be “clutch”
Beltran must’ve taken a peek at baseball prospectus’ projection for 2008, which has the Mets as favorites.
lmao
I personally do not have a problem with what Beltran said. Now, if he would have blurted “we are going to win the World Series” or “I am going to hit over 50hrs,” is a different story entirely. Technically, saying that they are the team to beat is not predicting they will win the NL East. They recently became the favorites, and now it is up to the rest of the division to make those predictions false.
Keep it up Beltran, the team needs confidence and leadership!
Passion! Swagger! Fire! Exactly what we need.
Intangibles! Great fodder for blogs! Meaningless!
Long Live Meaninglessness, and
Let’s Go Mets!
HOW NUTS ARE WE GOING TO BE BY OPENING DAY?!
Ya gotta dig Beltran, usually a very quiet guy, writing that kinda check with his mouth.
Ya just gotta love it.
This team is angry as hell about last year. Every bit as angry and as disappointed as we are.
Now, they are gonna go out there and beat teams up every chance they get.
Tough to beat a negative drive… tough indeed.
any1 see the mariners new slogan “mojo risin” wasnt that the 99 teams slogan?
finally someone is copying off of us instead of the mets PR stealing from all over the league
cant wait for the 1st JOSE JOSE JOSE JOSJEEEEE
typical willie, he laughed it off and didn’t back his player, he actually backed jimmy rollins.
wow beltran think before you SPEAK! now he said he wont play the 1st few exhibition games wowww
this is what i wanted to see from beltran!
what the heck does the (comments wont nest below this level) thing mean? cause i see comments and they seem to nest below that level.
thank you carlos ” overrated” beltran for putting all the pressure on yourself and the mets. outside of santana, the mets have done nothing to improve their team. santana pitches once every 5 days & is not going to go undefeated. the phillies have made improvements in the number of areas. JUST LIKE LAST YEAR….THE PHILLIES WILL WIN THE DIVISION !!!
P.S. LAST YEAR’S CHOKE JOB WAS PROBABLY THE WORSE IN SPORTS HISTORY. YOU CAN NEVER TAKE THAT AWAY !!!
thank you philis fan, not only did you say one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone on this blog is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul, you also personify the disgusting vile philthy phan we all know to kick and hate.
the Phils still have the most losses of any sporting team in basically the history of the world…enjoy that. And by the way, it took an all-time collapse to even allow the Phillies into the postseason, where they unceremoniously got swept. Good job.
if you actually want to have a real argument (where i will destroy you) im up for it
Fellow Met Fans, please do not bother with this mongrel philly fan, obviously he’s a little irritated because the Mets are shifting it in 3rd gear to pour affliction in the NL East. When you have the most passive voice in the team saying something that resembles confidence like that, you know the Mets have a formidable team to be feared.
the phillies improved how? by losing aaron rowand, signing pedro “my OBP will never be over .300 and even the giants know i suck” feliz, and getting brad lidge? LOL, go home.
alright, let’s get this “worst collapse in history off the table” The ACTUAL worst baseball collapse in history was the 1964 Phillies who gave up a 6.5 game lead with a mere 12 games to go. Nice 10 game losing streak from Sept 21 to Sept 30. THAT my friends remains the worst collapse in history. Sorry Phathead.
Yo Phils Fan,
Two words for you: SHUT UP!!!
what was so idiotic about what i said ? again, outside of santana, how did the mets improve themselves? you don’t think beltran is overrated ? i know the mets fans are all excited about santana but he’s only going to pitch in 33 of the 162 games if he stays completely health. sorry to rain on your parade, but it’s going to be the philles again this year
overrated isn’t an argument, he’s still better then any outfielder you have, can you actually tell me you’d take anyone in your outfield over him? That’s the point. Like i said before, it took an all-time collapse for you guys to even make it in, do you really think that’s going to happen again? Be serious…
yes, you are correct he is not going to pitch very game, actually if he did pitch every game that’d suck cuz even the BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL won’t be that good if he pitches in 162 games. Hamels is a good pitcher, but he’s no where near Johan not even close. johan pitches those 33 games, moves every1 down a spot, takes pressure off the bullpen on days he does not pitch, takes away from the collapse, makes the fan base rejuvenated, makes the players rejuvenated, gives the mets a steady ace for the next 5-7 yrs, and he also can help mentor another lefty with nasty stuff in perez among other things. and no beltran is not overrated because if you read the banter he gets from mets fans we never really embrace him or think very highly of him
also, what exactly is your arguement? that Santana won’t help? how is that an argument? Can i have what you’re smoking?
In a post to the great Phillies blog Beer Leaguer, Phillies fan Jason Weitzel writes before the trade…
“There’s no way to sugarcoat the strong possibility that Santana, the top prize, will be a Met next season, and possibly the next six. He would swing the balance of division power back over to the Mets. Head-to-head, it would be a nightmare. Maybe I’ll take up gardening this summer. Or woodworking. Have a nice day. It’s been real.”
Ok Phils Fan but did you not notice that we acquired a right fielder and a great defensive catcher this offseason as well, or were you still suffering from the sorry sweep of the Colorado Rockies. It happens, don’t worry. Trust me, the only improvement the phils made this offseason was they actually have a bad third basemen this year. Last year it was like they were playing with 8 guys. If you want to go and say that Brad Lidge is an improvement just wait until you play the Cardinals because I can assure you he will not take one foot outside of your bulpen to pitch to Pujols and then the slump begins for him. You also lost your all-star centerfielder and are replacing him with who….an old neverhasbeen outfielder name Jenkins…i rest my case…like Beltran said we’re the team to beat, have fun battling out third place with the nationals this year.
If we had Johan for just 1 start last year, Mets win the NL East amd perhaps the NL. We’ve got him for 33 or so this year. What do you really think is going to happen? Imagine how you’re gonna feel when we have a double digit lead in June. Oh wait, just remember 06! It’ll all come back to you. We have the best team we’ve had in a long time. We have 5 starters who can throw the team on their back and dominate for 5 starts at a time. This rotation has a shot to be very, very special. The effect wiill be cumulative. After going 1 for 9 facing Johan and Pedro back to back, hitters will come out against Maine and Perez and try to do too much. They’ll push to avoid the sweep. They’ll mostly fail. And Duque just as likely as any1 to throw a gem when hes healthy. People always talk about the cumulative effect of a good 1 thru 9 lineup or a great defensive infield. A rotation this good is worth more than the sum of its parts. Phils in 4th place behind an underated Nationals team
“outside of Santana?”
Other than that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?
I am tired of predictions.I want to make money predicting like all these sportscasters and pundits.just play the game-shut up and lets see what happens.
JM
You guys realize that he is a little more than a year late on this comeback? If the Mets had won the division last year and Beltran made this statement, then it would be a knock on Rollins and the Phillies, but right now he is getting to the party a little too late. He should have taken a page from Wright’s notebook and give the Phillies their props.
and Jason’s comment should be taken with a grain of salt and does not represent every Phillies fan. He is a little pessimistic, as are many of the posters on Beerleaguer.com. Have a good one, I am looking forward to an amped up rivalry between the Phillies and Mets this year.
ryan church ? brian schneider ? you can’t be serious. and you accused me of sounding idiot. i didn’t know that rejuvinating the fan base had anything to do with wins & loss. mets have a bas bullpen with a closer with an m.o. for blowing big games. alou will be lucky to play 100 games. church is not an everyday player. beltran is good but he chokes in big games. he was horrible down the strech & was terrible in the NLCS against the cardinals when you needed him the most. the mets lost to a team with 82 wins with a chance to go to the world series that year. delgado is done and will most likely have a bad year. maine & perez were terrible done the strech. el duque is always hurt. pelfrey stinks. pedro is throwing 85 mph. santana is great but how will he handle the pressure of pitching in NY after pitching his whole career in Minnesota where no one cares. Mets have a good team. a good second place team
man, if you came on here and actually made a reasonable argument based on facts, that’d be one thing, but what you’re saying are just lies, hearsay, and nothing more. I’ll just stick to one point and disprove you. Beltran had a bad NLCS against the Cards? Beltran’s line was as follows for that series…296 avg. 387 obp .667 slugging. 3 HRs and only 3 strike outs. Tell me that’s a bad series. Your Phillies suck, face it, you have a 46 year old as your #3. Good luck with that. Pat the Bat was a fluke last year, and Rollins will never have that good of a season again. Oh, and Howard will probably break the strike out record this year. Oh, and Lidge? hahaha, you guys will be on him after his first HR in that bandbox of yours and he’ll melt and by the end of the year you’ll probably only see him in the 6th inning during blow outs.
Let’s have an intelligent discussion, tell me where the Phillies have made an improvement. I do ask you to add along with your additions, your FA losses, and describe how it hurts your lineup. Be honest in your critique. (So your Rowand, Lohse, and Iguchi take is welcomed)
Rowand might hurt more than anyone else, but when you look at the tandem of Werth and Jenkins, they are more than capable of putting up the same numbers as Aaron. We will also be seeing more of Victorino, so has more speed and improved defense over Rowand. He was a great teammate and will be missed, but he was asking too much. Gooch was a great fill in for the best 2B in the majors, but we will have a healthy Utley back next season. I don’t think we lose anything there. Lohse pitched well for us down the stretch and we will have to rely on Eaton returning to…who am I kidding? Eaton alive and Benson scare me a little, but you never know what you are going to get from either of them. There is nothing that says Lohse will be a sure thing next season, he is a fill in pitcher at best, which is what we have Eaton and Benson for.
Are the B-Mets looking at fixing up the basement? Maybe getting a pool table? A Wii? They are gonna be down there for a while.
Eaton Alive? that’s a great nickname.
sorry, I forgot about our improvements.
Getting Wes Helms off the field. HUGE. Feliz will hit a good amount of dingers in CBP, plus a big time defensive upgrade. We haven’t had that in years. He is no Wright, but he is not Helms or David Bell, and I can deal with that.
Myers in the rotation. HUGE. We didn’t shell out any outlandish money to bring someone in and didn’t sell the farm. Good stuff.
You can keep saying that Lidge is still depressed over the Pujols thing, but you may want to look at the numbers and see that he pitched pretty well last year. He will be fine in Philly, and I am positive the Phils pen will be much better than the Mets.
Feliz career OBP .288. Is that what a Philly fan considers an “improvement”?
brad lidge is a decent pickup…however, myers was a better option as closer…but u need him as a starter…
pedro feliz was a good pickup at 3rd….
what you don’t have anymore is OF deph…or IF deph for that matter…
also the possibility of Lidge giving up a few dingers in philly are pretty high…u might wanna tell ur fans to ease up on him cuz he doesnt take the boo’s to well…
traded for lidge allowing myers to go to the rotation thus strengthening the rotation. feliz is an upgrade at 3rd base over last years mess. jenkin/werth platoon will outperform rowand’s numbers in SF this year. bench got significantly better. phils now have dobbs & werth coming off the bench when they started a lot last year. bruntlett is better than no-hit nunez. coste is a decent hitter. so taguchi lead the major leagues in pinch hitting last year. phils improved their depth in the starting rotation. eaton, benson, chad durbin, & travis blackley will battle it out for the 5th spot. last year, we were struck with eaton losing every time out (except against the mets for some unknown reason). the team has improved overall by 5-10 wins if they stay healthy
I would love to hear an explanation as to why the Mets couldn’t beat Adam friggin Eaton. He was the worst pitcher in baseball last year, yet he goes 2-0 against the Mets in 4 games started. That had to be pretty embarrassing.
come back when the season’s over buddy, you’ll hate your team like you do every year, except for those 2 weeks last year when you benefited form one of the worst collapses ever. Come back then…but you know what, I doubt you will, and I think i know why…
I’m not going anywhere. I like coming by here to see what you all have to say. Matt writes a good blog.
I am in no way writing the Mets off, but its anyone’s league. Last I checked, the Twins had a full season of Santana last season and didn’t make the playoffs. Hell, they were under .500. They don’t have the offensive firepower that you guys have, but Santana does not a champion make. How many rings does he have? Last I checked, you still have Randolph calling the shots in the dugout and I remember a LOT of complaining about him and how he handled the bullpen last season. Let me know when that changes.
like i said, I am looking forward to a rivalry bigger than the Yankees-Red Sox.
mets biggest rivals – Yankees, Braves, their inlaws, the phillies
phillies biggest rivals – the mets, creed from rocky
dude, ill, Santana on the Twins has nothing to do with him on the Mets. The Twins are not the Mets, and I”ll be the first to tell you that one player, pitcher, whatever does not guarantee you anything. But, you simply cannot deny that adding Santana is one of the best moves any team could dream of making, anytime. He just adds to the mix and makes our team better. Either way, there’s no use arguing anymore, but you are correct about one thing, I do hope to build a good rivalry, that always makes things more fun. Here’s to a good season of baseball.
Santana is a great pitcher and he will do some good things in NY. But how bad of a hit did your roster depth take to get him here? When you start trotting Endy Chavez out there on a daily basis, you know something is wrong. You may be putting a lot of stock in Johan, and he will deliver, but don’t forget about what it cost you. Beltran needs to make it through a season. When was the last time Church was an everyday player? Losing Lastings is going to be something you are going to regret later this season.
While I agree trading Milledge was a dumb trade for the LONG RUN for this season and they way this team is presented I.E. Pitching + Defense with an above average to good offense it was a good trade.
endy chavez is the BEST 4th OF in the game so stop.
dude, who did we lose? NO ONE who would help us this year, sorry, at this point Endy is better then Gomez, and Milledge? He wasn’t ready to do anything. Church is a fine player, he’ll be hitting 7th for us remember. You simply cannot deny what Santana brings us, stop denying it. He is the one of if not the best pitcher in the game. You would love to have him, so stop the nonsense. I could poke holes in your team all night but I don’t have that kind of time. I understand the Phils have a decent team, you have your holes, the Mets aren’t perfect either, but by the end of the season this argument will be settled, not before, so its useless now. But one thing you CANNOT deny, is Santana is an amazing addition and we hardly took any hits on our roster for it, for this year.
you do realize things like that happen right?
Is that all you got?
maybe eaton suddenly becomes “clutch” when he faces the mets
;)
didnt werth get traded to the astros for brad lidge???
you two are delusional. pedro feliz blows chunks, your rotation is hilariously awful and outside of utley and howard, i could give a crap about anyone in your lineup. rollins had a career year last year and isn’t getting any younger. you got your chance to shine and got swept.
yea i have to agree..not even just being a mets fan…
but how can you seriously think you’ve improved by 5-10 wins?? Rowand..is a huge loss…and maybe Jenkins and Werth come close to his output, in SF..but in Philly he was great, and is a great defensive outfielder.
Your bullpen your sure is better than our bullpen? Granted with the question marks the mets have..maybe MAYBE but to be sure??
you have ONE good pitcher… Myers is by no means a guarantee
And you want to say Maine and Perez blew down the stretch? Not really as much as you’d think, they both still got 15 wins, and with having less stress on them now with hopefully a healthy pedro and johan, they will be able to improve…
rollins, utley, howard, & hamels are potential hall of famers. did the mets fans forget we still have hamels ? cole has a good shot to have 20 + wins this year
OH MY god bro…
potential hall of famers????
Seriously, I don’t know if your even worth listening to anymore…wheres the other phillies fan? maybe he has more real arguments
I am not going to say HOF locks for all of them yet, but we have as much faith in them as you do in Wright, Beltran, and Reyes. They are all positions we don’t feel we need to upgrade at for a long time. They are coming back, Howard has come back in much better shape and we have the momentum behind us after last season.
I do have a question though. You guys keep saying “and the Phillies needed the Mets collapse to even get to the playoffs.” The season is 162 games long. The Phillies played all 162, where as the Mets seemed to have only played 150-some. That excuse doesn’t even make sense to me.
theres a big difference howard who I must say plays strikingly similar to adam dunn is 28 and utley is 29. while reyes and wright aren’t even in their prime yet.
I hope they get into their prime while Santana is there. They are both great players and i would love to have them on my team, but I have a bad feeling Reyes is going to hurt something in his knee this season. The way he gets caught stealing bases so much cannot be good for the team. I am just waiting for him to pull up lame one of these times.
potential hall of famers? die
jk stop posting here, u are incoherent
“Potential Hall of Famers”. Whatever that means. Lulz.
what the hell is Lulz? is that really some kinda internet lingo? that is just terrible.
just like jimmy “i’ve been a league average player for my entire career except for the apst season where i opened my mouth and the mets happened to play their worst baseball so i got proved right” rollins? seriously, go away.rollins is an average shortstop. utley and howard can go suck a dick as well. go beat your wife or whatever people from philly do.
Let’s not forget the healthy Pedro, Duaner Sanchez, Matt Wise (Who I truly think will be a difference-maker), and a full year of Castillo at 2B. There’s also, as is mentioned above by others, Church and Schneider. Then you throw the best pitcher in the world into the mix. Only 33 games, huh? Consider the fact that Philly beat us by one solitary game last year and needed the collapse to do it, and I feel like Santana and Pedro can make the difference over Glavine and Jorge Sosa.
And I keep hearing about this whole “we improved in a lot of areas” idea from the Phils and the Braves, but I just don’t see it at all. I won’t go into the Braves now, with their big Kotsay acquisition, but as for Philly, they’re no better in any way then they were last year. Great, Geoff Jenkins, so you got a carbon-copy of Pat Burrell, just 2 years older and minus the Met-killing, to put in RF and move the Flyin’ Hawaiian into CF. Any way you spin it Jenkins for Rowand does not improve your OF; it weakens it. Otherwise, the only difference other than Pedro Feliz, which is laughable, is Brad Lidge. Brad Lidge at CBP. So basically, you’re arguing that Johan Santana and Pedro Martinez are not enough to make up 1 game when faced off against Brad Lidge. Damn.
Its almost comical how this loser philly fans think they improved significantly with acquisitions like Pedro Feliz, Lidge and Genkins, Are you kidding me? For the sake of trying to make this into a reliable argument, your back end of rotation stinks, the Giant Fans were happy to get rid of Feliz out of town, wonder why? Jenkins, please he has as much chance of putting Rowand numbers as Roger Clemens passing a lie detector test. Lidge? ask Lidge if that HR ball is still floating in the stratosphere from when he pitched to Pujols, oh yeah ask him how he’s been doing since. The Phillys just drop significantly less than they were in 07. Keep dreaming buddy boy, the METS ARE THE TEAM TO BEAT.
I had to stop after reading “healthy Pedro”
I’m in tears over here.
I’m not assuming Pedro will throw 200 innings, but even 3 months of Pedro is a vast improvement over having to throw Chan Ho Park out there.
that should go without saying. But until I see what Pedro is throwing, I am not going to book him for 15 games. He is not the same pitcher he was 3 years ago even if he is healthy. He might make for a solid #3. Maine is coming back down to earth this year.
did you even see pedro pitch at the end of last year? Now he’s rested and starting at the beginning …
fear the 1 + 1A starters!
And one more thing, are we serious about the bullpen here?
Piece by piece:
Wagner v. Lidge.:
A potential HOF’er against a headcase pitching half of his games in a bandbox, one that Wagner has a career ERA of 1.76 in. Edge: Mets
Gordon v. Heilman:
Well, let’s see, Gordon’s 11 years older than Heilman and had an ERA more than a run and a half higher than Heilman’s last season, considered by some to be a Heilman off year. Edge: Mets
Sanchez v. Madson:
Both coming off of injuries, so you really can’t say. Same age, Sanchez’s injury was worse, but his track record is better, so I call it a push.
Feliciano v. Romero:
A tough one. Romero obviously finished ‘07 with the flashier numbers, but only after being outright dropped by Boston and sucking for a year and a half prior. (6.70 era in 2006) Feliciano’s definitely the more consistent. Edge: Push
Then Philly pits Rosario, Condrey, and a whole buncha guys you’ve never heard of against Smith, Wise, Schoenweis and Sosa. Edge: Clearly to the Mets.
So tell me how that Philthy bullpen is better…
mets fan are so biased it’s insane. rollins & howard have already won the mvp. utley has a good chance to be mvp this year. hamels will win a few cy youngs before its all said & done. it’s obvious at jalkwin jointz is an uneducated person…..like most mets fans.
just go to bed
This is coming from the guy who can’t punctuate and spelled rejuvenating wrong.
Don’t be that guy. At least bring something to the table.
Another nice thing about being a Met fan, beyond the whole better team thing? Living in the capital of the world and not in a hellhole that’s only redeeming quality is a sandwich. And if I really want that sandwich, I can get to Pat’s or Geno’s or John’s or Jim’s or Ishkabibbles in an hour and twenty minutes, eat 3 of them, and get the &^*%$ out of Philly.
don’t lie, you live in Jersey City.
the only place worse on the eastcoast than philthy, excuse me i mean philly, is new jersey
Or Brooklyn, my entire life, big guy. Where are you from, Cherry Hill?
You know more than half of the Mets fans I know are from Jersey right? and that is North Jersey, that ugly part of the state. At least Philly draws from the fields of South Jersey.
grew up about an hour southeast of Cherry Hill, but in MD now. The exit before getting on the Turnpike if you want to use the stereotype.
There are plenty of Met fans in Jersey, sure, but the state is really Yankee country. Best part of a Yankee win: watching 55,000 mooks form NJ sing New York, New York, written by a Dodger fan that hated the Yankees.
Seriously, Its a far cry from saying Hamels will win a few MVPs, I’m sorry if this seems to be mistaken as homer, but the man has not impressed me much. Hamels has been everything but spectacular against the Mets, we have his number and will continue to do so. Just for a second, you got Hamels, Ok, who else Myers? Ok, Moyer? Kendrick? Durbin/Eaton/Benson? Wow your rotation is so much in shambles that no one can hardly be intimidated by it.
If you really want to compare position by position im up for it all night baby, all my friends are away on vacation and i got nuttin to do IF YOU WANNA GO LETS GO RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW! CMON!
I’m just looking for something to do while I watch my Bucknell Bison play. Good game so far.
Which brings me to a final summation:
#1 SP: Mets
#2 SP: Mets
#3 SP: Mets
#4 SP: Mets
#5 SP: Push
Bullpen: Mets
C: Mets
1B: Phils
2B: Phils
3B: Mets
SS: Push
RF: Push
CF: Mets
LF: Mets
Bench: Push
That’s a tally of 9-2. We’re better. Challenge me at one of these and I’ll prove it to you, without making brainless Philadelphian generalizations.
i think a better way to compare would be to use the <<< system
bullpen: phillies
rotation: mets
lineup: phillies
bench: phillies
howard, utley, & rollins all better than delgado, castillo, & reyes respectively. wright better than feliz. ruiz better than scheinder. phils bench (dobbs/werth/coste/taguchi/bruntlett) better than mets bench (anderson/chavez/castro/gotay/easley). wagner-lidge is a push. gordon/romero better than heilman/feliciano. madsen better than sosa, chad durbin better than schoewenweis. santana better than hamel but not be lot. myers better than washed up injured pedro martinez, kendrick better than maine, perez better than moyer, benson better than el duque/pelfrey. burrell better than alou, beltran better than victorino, jenkins/werth platoon better than church
ADVANTAGE——PHILLIES
that is just as biased, but I like it more. Hamels is still young, and santana is much more established, but I would say Santana is a more than just a little better. I do agree that Myers can be better than Pedro, but we don’t know which Myers we will see. Maine is better than Kendrick, who I need to see something from this year to be sure he wasn’t a one season wonder. Moyer is older, but he makes it work, like the older dude on the Indians in Major League. Total junkball pitcher. It is hard to compare him to Ollie, who could be good or could be terrible.
Outside of the closers, I give the Phillies pen the edge as well. More established and more vet leadership. How many times did you guys call him Blowenweis last season? You know you don’t want to rely on him coming into the game.
As soon as Schoenweis stopped coming out to that horrific Incubus song, he got a lot better.
Ruiz is better than Schneider? Mind you I don’t think Schneider is useful other than defense but what exactly has Ruiz done to notch better? Typical brainless philly fan.
there’s no argument here. you’re not even making any points. how is the phillie rotation better? hamels, myers, and a bunch of people without any upside.
Alright, I could see how you may pick philles over mets on some position comparisons but comeon!!!! HAHA BENSON? There is a reason we shipped him out. Another one, Wagner-Lidge is a push? You should look up their stats. Hmmm you must be one of the rare phillies fans who didnt boo burrell last year. I mean he was HORRIBLE. Alou killed the ball. Ill grant you that he was out for a good portion of the season.
off topic from the drivel from the phillty phans, any1 watching mets classics? wow jim palmer was a beast
bayridge: you are a tad optimistic.
Straight up, Pedro is better then Myers, but Myers will give the Phillies 160-200 innings, while the Mets will probably get 125 out of Pedro. Those spot starts have to come from someone, and Pelfrey does not line up well against Myers. Not to mention when Hernandez goes down, etc.
We will be lucky to get 80 games out of Alou, the guy is ancient. The rest of the time we will have a platoon playing LF. Here again, half the season the Phillies will be superior.
I think the Met’s are clearly superior, but I would say your 9-2 tally will really be be 7-4 for much of the season.
I respect the post PhillR.
But no way Schneider is better than Ruiz. We both watched Nats games this year, and Schneider was someone you welcomed at the plate because you knew it was an easy out. Ruiz is at least smart at the plate and can do some damage. Plus he has a cannon.
I would make it more 6-5. Maybe even better if you actually look at the numbers of the guys we are running out to RF. Werth/Jenkins > Church.
Feliz might not be great, but look who we ran out there last season and still won. Our offense doesn’t need another weapon, but our D at 3B will take a huge step up with Feliz there.
I’m including castro, who should be in the lineup against lefties, in my evaluation at catcher, who to me is far superior to Coste, while Ruiz and Schneider are pretty close, with a slight edge to Ruiz. Call it a push if you like.
I’ll concede that I’m optimistic, but I like 7-4, at worst, anyhow. I don’t see why we can’t expect more than 80 games out of Alou, when he played more than 120 for 9 straight years before playing 98 in ‘06 and 87 last year.
Myers was plenty injured last year while he was starting, so I’m not in any way convinced that his spot in the rotation will be more reliable than Pedro. Plenty of Phillies will go down right with Mets that go down.
Schnieder/ Castro vs Ruiz adv mets <<
delgado vs howard avd phillies <
castillo vs utley adv phillies <<
wright vs feliz adv mets <<<
reyes vs rollins push
alou/chavez vs burrell adv mets <
beltran vs victorino adv mets <<<
church vs jenkins push
bench adv mets <
santana vs hamels adv mets <<
pedro vs myers adv mets <<
maine vs kendrick adv mets <<
perez vs moyer av mets <<<
el duque/pelfrey vs benson/durbin/eaton adv mets <<
feliciano vs romero adv mets <
heilman vs gordon adv mets <<
sanchez vs madson push
wise vs condrey adv mets <
schoenweiss vs zagurski push
wagner vs lidge adv mets <<
willie vs cholly push
mets fans vs phillies fan adv mets <<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Agreed, I just didn’t want to type all that out.
exactly. on paper, there looks like a huge difference in the rotations
Can I buy some drugs off of you
So to sum it up, 172 posts later, the Mets are in Phils Fan’s head.
you needed 172 posts to tell you that the Phillies biggest competition in the NL East is the Mets, and visa versa? This is a rivalry right? It should go both ways, man.
i actually think the braves are bigger competition. as long as bobby cox, larry, and smoltz are there they will always be in the mets heads. francoeur, mccan and hudson too.
Dinner and drinks later…No I didn’t need any number of posts to figure out that, if anything, the Phillies and the Mets are on the cusp of forming a rivalry. Last year was the first in my lifetime that both teams were “good” at the same time. Hardly a rivalry. Even the Braves, who I consider closer to a real rival of the Mets, while they were winning 15 consecutive divisions, more often than not left the Mets in the dust. The last time the Mets had a year in, year out battle with another team that I believe constituted a rivalry was the mid 80’s with the Cardinals. I HOPE the Mets and Phils develop a rivalry, I think it would be great fun (Phun?) but they ain’t there yet IMO.
Check out the 700levelclub.com. These phillie fans are as nasty as they get. they are classless. I cant wait to kick that teams ass. LETS GO METS!
How are they any different from what is being said by guys here?
OK, the AIDs comment and having Beltran die in a fire were a little low, but do you want me to go back to Rollins’ saying the same thing a year ago? I bet you all love him.
No, we hate him, but he was right and he won the MVP, so we like this.
but it is a year late and so unoriginal.
Is everyone on the same page here LOVIN BELTRAN TALKIN $HIT????????? I F N LOVE IT!!! That guy never talks! I wanna see a little arrogance from Carlos….
NO MATTA WAT, YA GOTTA STRUT!
P.S now please go out there n back it up…
Oh its gonna happen baby
Isles scored 3 goals tonight=free Wendy’s chili for all. Don’t know if that counts in Brooklyn, though…
Just thought I’d let you all know, in case you wanted some free chili.
edit: think that’s only with a ticket stub. Thought it was like Ellbury’s free tacos in the WS.
nvm its not horrible, i went to my first hockey game in like 5 yr last night and it wasnt totally horrible. i hav a feeling if i sat up and wasnt close to the action and the hits it woulda sucked btw it was the devils, so i couldnt cheer for numerous reasons. I.E. devils, new jersey, and puddy(elains BF)
hockey is extremely boring
You can say what you want about hockey, like it or not, but you can’t take away the fact that hockey players are phenomenal athletes, and hockey fans are devoted as hell. I accept that being an American hockey fan puts me in the minority, but I love it. I think you really have to play it to like it.
But it ain’t baseball.
Dude this is a baseball forum, a Mets forum for that matter, take it somewhere else.
Jeez, I wasn’t trying to start a hockey discussion, I was trying to alert fellow Met fans to the availability of free chili. Only kept it up to respond to the guy who said hockey was boring.
Playoff hockey is great but the regular season is stretching it
YEAH CARLOS!
WAY TO SPEAK UP AND SAY WHAT NEW YORK NEEDS TO HEAR FROM YOU GUYS. WE ARE THE TEAM TO BEAT, BUT THIS TIME NOBODY WILL STOP US.
Seriously…is there anything more pathetic than going to ANOTHER teams website to start shit?? I mean seriously…it’s one thing to go to another team’s site to catch up on the other team…but to actually take the time to sign up and spend ALL DAY debating with another team’s fans….I don’t get it. What, do you think you are going to come here and convince Mets fans that your team is better than ors?? Even if your team IS better than ours…you are wasting your time?? Why would someone waste their time like that?? It boggles my mind.
Personally, I completely respect their opinions, and appreciate their coming here and debating. In actuality, it makes for a great read, and allows us to read comments from other baseball fans. I rather liked reading comments from another team, and debates over who was better, rather than the usual dribble over who in Mets management should be fired, or who should be boo’d.
I only have one vote, but personally I welcome any and all Philly’s, Dodgers, Twins, Mariners, and any other true BASEBALL fans to make comments here, assuming they’re intelligent and based on fact and opinion, rather than random comments over who can make the more snide comments. I enjoy reading them.
looks like the Mets are already in the Phillie’s heads huh?
Thanks man, the feeling is mutual. I usually check out this blog every so often, usually when someone on the Mets makes a comment or when the Phillies are playing, but Matt does a good job and I have to congratulate him for getting getting through the system and actually working with the Mets. Bet he never thought he would get to that when he started this. If you wanna bring some Mets fans over to sports-boards.net anytime, there is a good group of Phillies fans there who are always looking for a smart group of rivals to talk to.
will do
yeah Ill, have to give you credit for not lowering yourself to the “knuckle dragging wiccan” stuff I see over at beerleaguer. Sports fans can jab each other without being just evil and rude, and you prove it. :-)
I think they feel threatened and had to come here and start shit to make themselves feel better. YEAH! PHILLIES ARE BETTER THAN THE METS!!!! IN YOUR DREAMS!!!!!!!
I think it’s retarded.
Well, given the context, it appears as though Beltran was talking “tongue-in-cheek.” If the Phillies and their Phanantics feel otherwise, let’s throw down the gaunlet!
I HOPE THE METS KICK THE CAN OUT OF THE PHILLIES, THE BRAVES, AND THE NL EASTERN DIVISION OVER THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR YEARS!!! sTARTING WITHTHIS ONE!!!
Calling on a famous quote of the past, “Let’s roll!!!’
just to say, I appreciate the Phillie fans that want to make an intelligent argument and not just come here as trolls. Unfortunately, every team has those trolls and they are usually the ones that stand out. If only we could all ignore them and listen to fans actually debate instead of YELLING IN CAPS.
First to that Phillies fan who wrote the Phillies have a better bullpen- your crazy. Brad Lidge in that joke of a ball park AKA the house that Rollins built, is not a good thing. He can not cover up that bullpen that was SO bad last year.
Now on to the reason im here..
http://www.metsprospectus.blogspot.com
Houston Chronicle:
“Santana is smoking something, I believe,” Oswalt said. “He’s got to realize this isn’t the American League. He’s got to get up on the plate.”
Asked if his quote could be attributed to him, Oswalt didn’t back down.
“It’s a little different when you got to run the bases and actually hit,” Oswalt said, alluding to the designated hitter rule that allows American League pitchers to focus on pitching. “You don’t just sit over there in the dugout and just pitch.”
As to the notion it’s easier to pitch in the NL because there is no DH in the league, Oswalt doesn’t necessarily buy that argument even if AL lineups are tougher with an everyday hitter instead of the pitcher batting.
But Oswalt appreciates Santana’s competitive nature.
“Me and Santana, we played together … on the same team,” he said. “He’s as competitive as I am, so it’s good to get another good pitcher over in the National League.”
So is the Cy Young Award race over?
“It’s not over by a long shot,” Oswalt said.
Hey, give us Mets fans credit. We’re talking all this smack with one hand. You guys try not getting Santana and whacking off to his Press Conference 4 times a day. I’m telling you, we’re tired. If our collective penises don’t fall of by the All Star game, I’ll be shocked. Shocked I tells you.
nice.
I like to hear things like this! It’s a sense of confidence that I think was lacking towards the end of last season.
I laugh at Pedro Feliz! He is garbage. Only thing you Philly fans have going for you is he is better than the crap you had at 3rd last year. Lets wait to see how Schneider performs on a new team, at new park, and batting in 8th hole with less pressure. Will be nice to have a good defensive catcher for once. Jenkins is as a previous poster stated a clone of Pat Burrell minus the “Met killer” intangible. You must not downplay losing the heart and soul of your team in Rowand and Jenkins will not, and I repeat, will not match his performance. Not even close.
Lets just wait to see how the season plays out. I cant argue against Howard and Utley being great but I’d rather stick with much younger players of equal greatness is Reyes and Wright especially over the long haul. But as I said the season will settle all arguments and I hope fans of both teams will be around to take their lumps and not hide.
He’ll have decent nubers because there ballpark down there is a f**king joke.
i love arguing with philly fans!
Arguing on the internets is like competing in the Special Olympics. Even if you win…
we’d kill the phillies in a street fight………….
Thats an unneccessary comment about the special olymics. The special olymics are a great tradition that one day Our favorite broken-down 50 year old Pitcher, Roger clemens, will participate in due to the harmful affects of the “B-12″ (wink wink) that he injected
lol, love it.
I love it. Rollins and Victorino get cocky about a team that barely squeaked by last year and think they’re superman but when Beltran returns the same kind of talk in an obviously joking manner Philly fans get their panties all in a bunch. Maybe it’s just me but if the NL East was a family the Phillies are by far the middle child.
phillies = lil b i t c h e s
I reviewed your hypothesis through experiments and surveys alike and my findings confirm your theory
Mets handed the division to Philly, no question. Middle child is a bit much CitizinSnips, more like the disowned child.
Philly will never win in that bandbox they call a stadium. Their offense will have to continually be asked to carry their pitching; that can never be counted on, especially in the playoffs. They gave up 821 runs last season; no 1st place team in either league was even CLOSE to giving up that many. To get an idea of how bad that is, only 5 American league teams gave up over 800 runs in ‘07; Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Seattle and Texas…and the Junior Circuit is supposed to be the league with all the offense.
Lets not forget they choked in october also. they are doing alot of talking after winning 0 postseason games
Why doesn’t anybody acknowledge the fact that Rollins’ prediction didn’t come true? The division fell into their laps. The Phillies weren’t a force in the division to be reckoned with. They weren’t the team to beat last year. The Mets were. But they collapsed, and the next in line was the Phillies, who wrestled the title away at the last second.
Please stop acting like Rollins is some sort of prophet, people.
I always believed his statement was incorrect because it was in the beginning of the season and the Phillies, the previous year won absolutely nothing. So how can you be the “team to beat” when you haven’t won anything? He can say that this year and be right…but I still don’t like him and his team.
Same logic applies to Beltran. Last year his team won absolutely nothing, except bragging rights in April and May.
Nice, I love it. Gotta be fiery when playing the game of baseball. Go Beltran.. let the games begin!
Are there really Phillie fans here tonight? You mean, Philly-is-trash.org is down for the weekend? Sry bout that.. no place to go.
Agree Tina. Lets get this season started. Good luck to all with the lottery for the “big games”. Everyone register so the Philly and Yank fans dont get any seats in OUR stadium. Sign up!
243 posts. We haven’t ssen these nubers scince the Johan Santana trade
Hey ive been saying it like a fat kid says Gimme more ice cream… April 18th, 19th, 20th… Mets @ Philly. Im making the 2hr trip down I95 for those games with other knuckleheaded Met fans… I wanna see ALOT of ORANGE & BLUE out there…
I will try to be there. I will def. be there for the 4th of July game. My dad is taking off work that weekend and getting us REALLY good seats.
If I go to the April series I’ll probably be in section 1,411. But that’s okay. It’s called a bandbox anyway,
you idiot philly fans. you get LUCKY AS HELL for one year and it goes to your heads. it took a historic collapse for you to get in the playoffs so you could, of course, get your asses handed to you int he playoffs. you have no chance this year. you have 2 good hitters in your lineup, 0 GOOD PITCHERS, and a complete joke of a ballpark. just get the hell off this blog, please. it kills my brain cells to even read your “opinions.”
Never saw a fanbase before trumpeting their team’s choke so loudly and proudly.
Don’t think the Phils were that lucky. A ton of injuries, stuck in a division with the best team ever, yet still ended up with the second best record in the league.
i hope this rivalry lasts a couple of years…. it’s fun i got disappointed when the mets/braves one died down.
I’m from North Jersey and I’m a die hard Met fan…. and yes, there are a lot of Yankees fans here but we are starting to take over because the Yankees are old and they cheat (see: Giambi, Clemens, Pettite, Knoublauch, Stanton, Martinez, A-Rod, Justice, etc, etc.) Now, for all of you people that hate on Jersey… Met fan or not … F*CK OFF !
LETS GO METS’
this season cant come any sooner.
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