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In his latest mailbag for MLB.com, Marty Noble answers questions 
about the Mets leadership roles, the signing of Brady Clark, and the pitching rotation in 2008 and beyond, among other things.
Noble writes…
“The Mets would be better off now and in the future if they move Hernandez into the bullpen and start Mike Pelfrey in the rotation. Hernandez would stand a better chance of lasting the entire season, and Pelfrey would get some positive big league time. When 2009 comes, the Mets might only have Maine and Santana in their rotation.”
…added to by Matthew Cerrone…
…man, this is really becoming the popular topic, isn’t it…we, as fans, were talking about this month’s ago it seems…but, now it’s all over the place…probably because newspaper and magazine people are staring a gimpy el duque in the face now, and once again realize that he is made of paper mache…
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It’s a good point about Pelfrey. I think Santana-Maine is a good start for 2009, but only having 2 pitchers is a disaster.
Provided they are both healthy and can still be effective, the Mets should absolutely make sure they sign either Pedro or Ollie for 2009. Two open spots will be a lot easier to fill than three.
They got to get perez re-signed. Delgado’s 17mill a year contract is coming off the boards, as is pedro’s 14 mill.
you don’t think we’ll re-sign pedro?
we will, but for less then 14 mill. Remember, we payed that high to build credibility. With johan we don’t ave to over-pay
You are talking about a difference of about 2 million at the most. It will be something like 2/24.
It’s like nobody remembers how awful Pelfrey was last year and just expects him to put it together. Pelfrey needs to be in the minors refining his offspeed pitches.
Put El Duque in the pen and sign Lohse to a multiyear deal.
Perez is as good as gone, someone is going to give him a 70 million dollar 5 year deal, maybe more if he has a good year. And it’s not going to be the Mets
In 2009 if all goes well you can have Santana, Pedro for 2 more years, Maine, Lohse, and Pelfrey as a 5th starter.
Cactus, if you remember, Maine fell on his face for the Mets when we first picked him up–and he was older and more experienced than Pelfrey is now. Give the kids a chance.
Bottom line is, however, that Randolph won’t put El Duque into the pen if he doesn’t want to… Randolph respects veterans and El Duque certainly has a say…
IF he were to offer himself to the pen, that would be a different story… but from what I understand he doesn’t want to go there…
Anyway, idk what im saying, didnt we force heilman into the pen a few years ago?
Great point. Wasn’t it El Duque who interrupted Willie early last year in front of reporters and demanded to pitch game 1 of that Philly doubleheader instead of game 2? If El Duque wants to start, Willie will listen.
Besides, why shouldn’t Elduque start if healthy? It’s not like he will be magically healthy warming up in the bullpen all year. If he is going to get injured it won’t matter if he is a reliever or starter. Right now the Mets view him as the #5 until June/July when he gets injured. At that point Pelfrey should be ready.
Perez would be foolish to leave Peterson; as a team, they have been a success. Before “the jacket” not so much.
Mets need a home grown to step up; no doubt.
Call me a hopeless romantic; but I think Pedro will pitch well in ‘08 and resign.
that’s re – sign with the Mets…
test
sorry about the “test” PC is running wild on me.
Gotta give Pelfrey a chance here. Not to mention Ya need El Duque rested as much as possible. I like his junk for mid relief anyway…
They have to be careful with him all season. Why start something that is almost guaranteed not to last???? I mean you know he isnt going to last the whole season…
Im hoping pelfrey matured…
I will say this once again tho, when it comes down to it this year. I still say SANCHEZ IS EVERYTHING!!! He is 06′ material Mets r in very very very good shape.
I dont know how much i like this but….
Has anyone seen the odds in Vegas? Mets are now favored over everyone to win the WS! Yes that includes the Tigers and Red Sox and are beloved yankees…
Glass is “half full” mentality this year. Mets in 08′
first off…we don’t love the yankees….infact, i would not call them beloved whatsoever :)
and its our
sorry to be the grammar police
i know … i just know it… another 15 win season for OLLIE and tom hicks gives him a 7 yr deal at like 15 mill per
This has been my thinking all along, but there is so much coming off the books that we could get Perez done. It’s really a double-edged sword. The better he pitches, the more he’ll cost. Let’s just hope he wins 20 games and a WS, then they’ll have no problem giving him tons of money…
There’s just too much else to fill out next year to have 3 empty rotation spots; LF, 1B, maybe RF/C is the new Nats can’t get it done. II’m hopeful about Pedro, though. It’s hard to see him wanting to go to some random team for cash. Either we resign him, he retires, or he has a last hurrah in Boston…
it’s not that the guys made of paper mache, as you say……
the guy is /was a great competitor……. but he’s old as moses……it cant go on forever………
But I thought he was only 41 *sacasism*
yea its not a matter of being soft but i mean come on most people are retired by their late 60s.
Why don’t we start the season with Hernandez in the bullpen, give Pelfrey a few starts, and if he doesn’t cut it send him down and slide El Duque into the rotation.
This allows El Duque more time to regain his form, as well as allowing us to see if Pelfrey has it yet.
Because this isn’t fantasy league, and preparing to pitch 6 innings every 5 days is very different to preparing to pitch 1 inning two days out of three.
The switch from pen to rotation is not at all easy to make mid-season.
Plus, what makes you think Duque would be immune from injury in the pen? You’re probably just guarnateeing fewer innings of Hernandez by taking him out of the rotation… what’d be the point?
His stuff’s dirty, way above league average for a #5, way above Kyle Lohse’s stuff… at this point in his career, above what we could reasonably expect from Pelfrey over an extended run. Let’s ride the old guy ’til he breaks down and see where we are by then. It could easily be a dozen games ahead.
I totally agree here, although I was initially on the let Pelf pitch bandwagon.
Duque, when healthy, would be the best #5 there is, I can’t think of another #5 that could sniff his jock (maybe Lester/Buchholz?, N. Robertson?), and Pelf could only benefit from more seasoning in Nawlins. Why roll the dice with an already brittle Duque and get less out of him anyhow when we have a pen that I expect to be a strong point this year: Duaner *knock on wood* back, Matt Wise on board, Smith a year older, Feliciano and really all of them better rested with a better rotation behind them, Sosa in the pen, Schoenweis on schedule to have a good one with the every other year middle reliever rule (so it ain’t science, but…), Pelfrey as a desperate option, and a handful of kids in the minors with bullpen potential. We just don’t need Duque in the pen, and any day we can put him out there in a big game over Kyle Lohse or a question mark Pelfrey is a plus.
On the Perez, he was just as good as Maine and you could argue that he was even better. If Perez does it again, you gotta pay him. I’ve seen the free agent list, don’t become delusional, we aren’t bringing in Sabathia, Lowe is old.. Ben Sheets is a major injury risk but it depends on how it does. Maine was awful in the second half, just because he threw a near perfect game his last start and Perez didn’t doesn’t make Maine better.
To the poster who said “Remember John Maine was bad in the beginning for the Mets”
Well..
John Maine: 16 games, 3.60 ERA. 1.13 WHIP. Yea, he sure struggled.
Mike Pelfrey: 20 or so games: ERA aruond 5.50, WHIP around 1.71.
When was he good? Ok. He’s improving. Had a 7.90 ERA in April, a 5.40 ERA in May, July: 4.91, August 4.88. So yea, he’s improving. He’s still garbage. One start against Atlanta doesn’t make him good.
Whats wrong with Pelfrey having to “earn” a spot? If this team was bad and had no chance at making the playoffs, then I’m all for the youth getting the nod over the veteran but if El Duque is healthy, he is our fifth best pitcher and the guy you trot out there every fifth day not pelfrey..
Everyone says to put El Duque in the ‘pen, but doesn’t he take forever to warm up?
I’d think it’s better he knows when he’s starting than to get him up and down in the ‘pen and put pressure on his arm it’s not used to. It’s one thing to do that in a short series it’s another thing to do that over the course of a season.
Wagner even said something to the effect of.. whose to say he’ll stay healthier in the bullpen? He’s going to be pitching more games. Thats the only reason why people want Pelfrey in there.. or so he has a “positive experience” what if he has a negative experience (far more likely than the former if you ask me).
Pelfrey hasn’t earned a spot in the rotation. One start against the Braves isn’t enough. I mean how many quality starts did Pelfrey have?
Quality start.. 6 IP 3 ER. 4.50 ERA. Not much. He’s not ready. He needs more time in AAA. Or he should be switched to the bullpen.
agreed that he has not earned a spot. I think if he pitches lights out in the spring, and Duque goes down, then they will start the year with him in the rotation.
But, I expect the plan (which I agree with) is for him to start in AAA, and get 60-90 innings in to refine his stuff, and be ready to come up when needed.
Having pefrey in the rotation is clearly better for the long term and arguably the short term. If he can perform like he did in the last month of last season then we have another quality arm to slot in behind maine and johan next year, especially if perez and pedro are gone. Not sure if it is worth rocking the boat though as El Duque can be a little fickle and might sulk. You have to wonder what effect that will have on the other hispanic players. Personally, I don’t think we owe El Duque a thing after he went MIA over the last 2 years are the most critical times
Batsin,
Pelfrey’s last month:
Sept 1: 6 IP 1 H 1 ER 3 BB 7 K against Atl. Excellent
Sept 7 5 1/3 10 H 2 ER 2 BB 3K — Eh. 10 hits in 5 innings isn’t good but was “good enough” to win.
Sept 11 is a relief appearence. 2 IP 1 ER 3 H 2 BB
Sept 19 5 IP 9 H 3 ER 3 BB 4 K — another eh. 9 hits allowed. Got a won though.
Sept 24 5 2/3 5 H 6 ER 5 BB 3 K – important start during the collapse, awful start.
You can say “he did enough to win” but thats not deserving of a shot. He wasn’t great by any stretch that last month of the season.
Yea, we don’t owe El Duque anything. But when he was healthy, he was very good for us. Pelfrey was unspectactular to say the least.
Agree he was not spectactular but 3-1 with 3.30 era in his last 4 starts before the is Sept 24 start is more than adequate. Even in the 9/24 start if Joe Smith doesn’t let 2 inherited runners score on a ronnie belliard double then pelfrey gets out of it with a 5.2IP, 4ER. He’s 24 years old, the organization has put a lot of stock in him (i.e. wanting to keep him out of the list of prospects traded for Johan) and he fits well in the rotation as a hard throwing, ground ball inducing righty. I like El Duque but he and Pedro are a little too similar at this point and when he inevitably misses a month here and a month there I don’t to see tony armas or jason vargas or whomever shuttled up for a month. Also lets not forget that in El Duque’s final two starts last year he got smacked around against the Phillies on August 30 (3IP, 5 ER) and the Braves on Sept 11 (3IP, 8ER). He did have success out of the bullpen in his last 3 appearances (3.2IP, 1 ER). It’s easier to shutle smith, wise, etc. up and down to take his bullpen spot when el duque gets hurt. gotta think long term as well.
Pelfrey going to AAA to work on his stuff is also thinking long term. He still could be a part of the Mets future in the rotation but he’s got to earned it. If Duque’s healthy, he should be the fifth starter.
You can’t pick and choose the games that Pelfrey pitched well and say “Ok, he had a 3.30 from this point..” . Pelfrey pitched that last game against the Nationals and he was horrible.
wise has no options, so once he comes up, he is up for good.
wasn’t cherry picking games, was just looking at his last 6 appearances. even with the awful last game he gave you 3 wins with a 4.80 ERA in that span. joe smith gets one out in the last game and its a 4.20 era. long term it is a lot more useful to see pelfrey in the rotation this year rather than have to depend on him next year coming off another year at AAA. El duque was great to the start the year but a 5.5O ERA in 2005, 4.60ERA in 2006 combined with a 12 ERA last september (and 4.20 ERA in august) isn’t exactly awe-inspiring.
Pelfrey spending the whole year in AAA is a total straw man. Noone believes that can or will happen.
Pelfrey getting some time to perfect an off-speed pitch in AAA then coming up probably not too far either side of the all-star break is probably what we’re looking at if Duque nails the final spot in the rotation for April.
what is it with this Pelfrey hatred? Since when does every SP have to some up and dominate when they are 22? News for you, Gooden was more the exception than the rule!
Pelfrey was shortchanged by getting rushed.to the majors, instead of having more time to develop. I just wonder how he would be viewed now if he had been able to work on his stuff for another year or 2 in AA/AAA, and maybe came up to fill in the 2nd half of last year?
I still think (as apparently does the organization) that he has the talent and potential to become a very good starting pitcher. Will he become Webb or Peavy? Who knows. But I sure won’t bet that he couldn’t be vying for a Cy Young award when he is 28 (Prime pitching years, and 4 years from now!)
You could say that about so many pitching prospects who turn out to be busts. All I’m saying is, Pelfrey hasn’t earned the fifth spot in the rotation. He won it after Spring training last year and he wasn’t good.
Just because he’s a prospect on the Mets doesn’t mean he’s going to be Peavy or Webb. As of now, more likely than not, he won’t be either one of them.
Pelfrey is not going to be a top of the rotation starter. He can be a solid pitcher fo rthe mets however.
I don’t think Pelfrey’s garbage at all. Matter of fact, I was thrilled he didn’t go to Minny for Johan, but I echo the sentiments of others. Right now Duque is clearly the 5th best SP we have, maybe better on some days. That said, I don’t think we’ve seen nearly enough of Pelfrey to determine what his ceiling is. There are a lot of very successful SP’s out there who had comparable is not worse track records at Pelf’s age than he does now, and a lot of pitching prospects with nice potential ruined by MLB exposure too long, too early. Let him grow.
Sign Lohse for a 2 Year Contract for the 5th Spot… One less spot to fill next off season
Santana
Pedro
Maine
Perez
Lohse
Pelfrey as insurance for Pedro or anyone else.
Use the money from Delgado and Pedro’s expiring contracts to re-sign Olie perz and Pedro (at a reduced price).
But then where do you get the money to replace Delgado without increasing payroll? Carp? No thank you.
That’s the catch here. You figure they have to chase a big 1B bat, Teixeira being the obvious option, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see ATL extend him.
Doesn’t Duque prefer cooler weather (odd for a Cubano, I know)? If so, bunion or no, and he’s fairly healthy, don’t we really want him in the rotation for April and May? We need him to give us five decent innings or so w/ each start. And don’t say pitchers aren’t effective in their forties.
Meanwhile, Pelf develops in AAA again knowing he will be wanted as the fifth man when the war horse sputters; could even be given a couple of spot starts.
a much better idea would be to make Heilman the 5th starter
with Duaner healthy, and with El Duque in the pen, it would give Aaron the shot he’s long deserved – he did pitch a complete game 1 hitter for the Mets already
and if he didn’t cut it, Pelfrey can be called up midseason
so El Duque’s health becomes a non issue and Heilman gets his long deserved chance and a confident Pelfrey can be available for the second half if needed instead or because of injuries
I really wish they would give this a shot
and Pedro should start opening day
Santana #2
Maine #3
Perez #4
Heilman #5 (and available in the pen when a 5th starter isn’t needed)
Duaner hitting 90 mph right now. Not what he should be hitting. I have to see him do it before I say he’s back for real. And I don’t mean pitching in Spring Training. Too risky.
The Heilman to the rotation ship has long sailed.
wait, you’re judging Duaner’s velocity now? It’s the first game of spring training, most guys aren’t up to their normal speeds yet, Peterson himself said most guys are lower. I think we can expect Duaner to gain velocity, the fact that he’s already at 90 should be encouraging actually, not discouraging. Expect him to gain 4-5 mph, he’ll be back to normal.
I pointed out velocity to demonstrate that Sanchez is still in the process of coming back. He isn’t a sure thing. Thats why we need Heilman in the pen.
Darkstar is right though. Hitting 90 mph on the first outing of ST is akin to be around 95- 96 in mid May. The velocity takes all pitchers time to come. that is part of why P and C start a week earlier than all others at ST because they need the time to open the arm back up and let it out to reach its max
I thought the problem with Heilman is that he really only has 2 pitches so is better suited to the pen. (Kind of like what happened with Sosa.)
that’s actually a misconception, Heilman had 3 pitches all throughout college and in the minors, fastball, change up, slider, and the slider early on was pretty well thought of. He scratched the slider when he became a reliever. I’m not in favor of moving Heilman to the rotation, but using the fact that he only has 2 pitches doesn’t really fly. The reason they moved him to the bullpen was more because he had trouble getting through a line up the 2nd and 3rd time, and overall, wasn’t that great as a starter.
Terrible idea. Then our bullpen’s the same as last year, except sub. Duaner for Heilman before we know exactly how good he’s going to be, and sub. Mota for whoever makes the team. You still don’t have the defined roles that help them settle in.
Plus what makes you think Heilman’s going to be any good as a SP? He’s been tried there, and found wanting. And he’s been all relief for a couple of complete seasons since then.
For all of some Mets’ fans moaning, Heilman’s one of the better late-inning relievers in the NL. You definitely can’t say he’d be one of the better starters.
Problem with this whole argument is that it’s a moot point. Everyone from Peterson to Willie to Wilpon has shown us time and time again that Heilman in the rotation just ain’t happening. Period. And I think it’s better that way. We know Heilman is solid in relief, we know Duque’s a good starter, why mix it up just for kicks? But I just beat my own dead horse by contributing to that moot point….
I have been afraid to raise the Heilman to the rotation option again (always such a fun yet civil debate!)
But, it needs to be on the table. If not right now, certainly for 2009. If the pen stabalizes, and they get lucky with 1-2 of the other RH power arms, say Kunz or Rustich, with Sanchez, maybe wise, they could actually have more RH set up men they they have room for.
And the only one of the bunch (other than Rustich, whois being tried as a starter), Heilmann is the one with the experience to do it.
If they have a couple of holes in the rotation, and are looking at trash (or overpriced, LT contract trash) to fill them, Heilmann is a logical choice.
I don’t see it this year, since that would be almost a desperation time move (meaning they have run out of options), but for next year? Go for it.
Agreed, not this year, but it has to be an option next year. Both because we’ll need it and because he wants to start.
How about, with the money coming off the books from Pedro and Ollie, we sign Sabathia? Then, assuming Pelfrey comes into his own this season, next year we’ve got:
Santana
Sabathia
Maine
Pelfrey
Heilman
The top two pitchers in baseball at the top of the rotation? That’s a nice way to bring in a new stadium.
people need to stop thinking about ‘09 and Sabathia being in our rotation. Please realize now, so it’ll save you all the time worrying about, that we will not get Sabathia. He’s going to command big money, big years, another noninsurable contract for 6-7 years, its a huge risk, especially for a guy like Sabathia who is that out of shape. No way the Mets sign him, I doubt any team would ever think of doing that 2 years in a row, even the Yankees.
They also probably want Tex to be the 1st baseman too.
150 mil for Tex
150 mil for Sabathia
+ Santana money.
Nice fantasy.
Happy to see Marty Noble suggested what I have in the past about El Duque possibly being expendable at this years trading deadline for a team desperate for a starter. But when I suggested it here I got blasted by others on here. If Pelfrey is pitching very well then we can trade El Duque for prospects to help replenish the farm system. This would make even more sense if we sign Losche to a deal and he pitches well. We can even trade Losche or El Duque at the deadline. Desperate teams looking for pitching for a playoff run will overpay with prospects.
I tend to agree but I would use Perez as the guy rather than Duque because I think Perez will be tough to resign and because I think Perez will get more in the market for him as a rental when compared to Duque.
This assumes 2 things.
1) Mets have spoken with Boras and get a strong sense he is both going to market and he is looking to get every last dollar…a pretty good bet.
2) Pelfrey is either contributing at the ML level already or he is pretty dominant in the minors and can be brought in and expected to be a solid #5 guy.
I realize it is a bit out there to suggest that a good Perez can be removed mid season for prospects when we are fighting for the division. But I believe it is the best course of action long term and will be disruptive but perhaps not too disruptive during the season
Why not just take the draft picks for him and try and win the WS?
El Duque was a very effective starter last year for the Mets. I’d much much rather have a player make 20 starts with 3.5 ERA than replace with him a player who makes 30 starts with a 4.5 ERA.
Putting him in the pen may be disruptive. He wants to start, needs a lot of time to warmup, and may be better suited to a very regular pitching schedule. You still need a bit of a rubber arm to warm up and pitch every couple days even if it’s just an inning or two.
Randolph should give El Duque rest at the first sign of discomfort and regardless give him a start or two off periodically to maximize his chances of being healthy for the playoffs.
totally agree with Massey.
Keep in mind also that young guys aren’t likely to pitch 30+ games. Pelfrey and Hernandez will share the season.
The question is: who do you want to pitch when?
And wait! did Hernandez suck?! No way! He had the starters’ lowest WH/IP 1.17 and H/9 6.64, and the lowest oppenent AVG .206 and OBA .297. He also believe he pitched later in more games than anyone else.
Stop talking about him like he’s a dud. He’s a veteran with brilliant experience. There was a lot of pressure on Hernandez last year. He was the only won able to make it into the 6th and 7th inning to give the relievers a rest.
If we’re in the playoffs, I’ll bet you all the money in my wallet you’d want him in there more than Pelfrey.
So who do you want to pitch when? I’d vote to start Pelfrey in the minors to work on his technique. Bring him up after the allstar break to give someone a rest.
With Santana and a healthy Pedro, there will be more room to rest Hernandez throughout the year. Use him with some smarts and we’ll have the most feared staff in the playoffs.
I dont get what the issue really is.
El Duque takes 20 min to warm up. He is as veteran as a veteran can be. The dude came to america on a raft. He is one of the best post-season pitchers of all time. He carried us for a bit last year.
You gonna be the one to tell him that the rookie pitcher, who everyone agrees can use some AAA time, is taking his place?
El Duque should start till he hurts himself. Then take it from there.
What on Earth makes Noble think Duque is more likely to last an entire season if he’s in the pen?
This is just media junk. We need something to talk about. I love Matt but he has been doing the same thing.
Elduque has said he will be healthy by opening day and I believe him. He does not have to pitch until mid-April at the earliest. We will get about 20 starts out of him and about 15 out of Pelfrey. That will be effective enough. If in September Elduque wants to go to the pen to rest up for the playoffs again, so be it.
Our biggest problem is what if Elduque and Pedro go out at the same time? Armas Jr and Vargas. I would not mind seeing the Mets go after another AAA veteran.
I for one am actually pretty curious as to what Darkie has to say on this one. He’s been so adamant against putting Duque in the pen, and now that there’s a reason for the argument, there’s no counterpoint. I haven’t formed an opinion one way or another yet (I lean towards a starting Duque) but here’s the forum for it, instead of previous times when Darkie more or less just called Matt out again and again.