Comments on: Blog: Tigers want Heilman for Thames http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/ MetsBlog.com features the latest Mets rumors, player movement, and news circulating around the Internet, as well as Mets related insights and opinions by Matthew Cerrone and his team of guest bloggers. Sun, 08 Nov 2009 16:12:12 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: mets8669 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-285029 mets8669 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 18:52:37 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-285029 I agree, now that the steroid era is over I don't think anybody wants to look back and signing Bonds will just add stress to the team. I agree, now that the steroid era is over I don’t think anybody wants to look back and signing Bonds will just add stress to the team.

]]> By: mets8669 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-284453 mets8669 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 03:28:13 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-284453 we know wat our bullpen looks like. itz one of the wrost in baseball we know wat our bullpen looks like. itz one of the wrost in baseball

]]> By: mets8669 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-284452 mets8669 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 03:23:44 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-284452 he wont sign with the mets. i think hes done. and he got abused so much last yr lol he wont sign with the mets. i think hes done. and he got abused so much last yr lol

]]> By: mets8669 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-284451 mets8669 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 03:21:30 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-284451 yaa(laugh laugh) so alou could come bac and then get injured in a week yaa(laugh laugh) so alou could come bac and then get injured in a week

]]> By: mets8669 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-284449 mets8669 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 03:20:42 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-284449 well id rather give away heilman for just about nyone cause i think hes garbage but i wudnt give him away for matt morris. he was terrible with pittsburgh this yr and i dont think hell do any better with the mets well id rather give away heilman for just about nyone cause i think hes garbage but i wudnt give him away for matt morris. he was terrible with pittsburgh this yr and i dont think hell do any better with the mets

]]> By: Necciai27 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115550 Necciai27 Thu, 20 Mar 2008 19:20:32 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115550 Wow, thanks for completely misinterpreting both my post and a good deal of the concept of BABIP. To start off with, I did NOT say Thames was worth Heilman. I did say I could see why the Tigers would ask for him given their bullpen problems. Nothing more. I said he might be worth Sosa. As for BABIP...under your interpretation of it, I guess David Eckstein really IS clutch. There's just a 20 point differential in BABIP, after all, much less than Thames.... Seriously, Thames generally swings for the fences or tries to hit the ball half a mile if there's no one on base. If there's someone on, he shortens up his swing and becomes far more of a patient hitter (and the stats back this up, too...he takes more pitches per PA with men on). While I believe 95% of position players can be predicted by current sabermetrics, Thames is an example of a guy who simply "gets lucky" FAR too often for it to be a fluke. Voros McCracken even stated a player's luck will only last about three, at the most four years before he regresses to the mean when he came up with BABIP. Also, extrapolate both w/RISP and bases empty to 650 PA are the two stark differences you see are NOT strikeouts (160 w/RISP, 159 w/no one on) and walks (though he does walk more, it's not a HUGE difference...56 vs. 72). Instead, the two big differences you see are doubles (48 vs. 26) and triples (4 vs. none at all). Wow, thanks for completely misinterpreting both my post and a good deal of the concept of BABIP.

To start off with, I did NOT say Thames was worth Heilman. I did say I could see why the Tigers would ask for him given their bullpen problems. Nothing more. I said he might be worth Sosa.

As for BABIP…under your interpretation of it, I guess David Eckstein really IS clutch. There’s just a 20 point differential in BABIP, after all, much less than Thames….

Seriously, Thames generally swings for the fences or tries to hit the ball half a mile if there’s no one on base. If there’s someone on, he shortens up his swing and becomes far more of a patient hitter (and the stats back this up, too…he takes more pitches per PA with men on). While I believe 95% of position players can be predicted by current sabermetrics, Thames is an example of a guy who simply “gets lucky” FAR too often for it to be a fluke. Voros McCracken even stated a player’s luck will only last about three, at the most four years before he regresses to the mean when he came up with BABIP. Also, extrapolate both w/RISP and bases empty to 650 PA are the two stark differences you see are NOT strikeouts (160 w/RISP, 159 w/no one on) and walks (though he does walk more, it’s not a HUGE difference…56 vs. 72). Instead, the two big differences you see are doubles (48 vs. 26) and triples (4 vs. none at all).

]]> By: Slob http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115413 Slob Thu, 20 Mar 2008 15:05:23 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115413 Stick with the pitching to start the year. The Phillies bullpen might implode early, in which case, the need for that extra offense is lessened. Plus, if the Tigers bullpen becomes a problem early, they'll probably be more likely to accept a guy like Sosa back for Thames. One of the guys being tossed around will likely be available, and we'd be in a better position once we know exactly what our bullpen looks like. Stick with the pitching to start the year. The Phillies bullpen might implode early, in which case, the need for that extra offense is lessened. Plus, if the Tigers bullpen becomes a problem early, they’ll probably be more likely to accept a guy like Sosa back for Thames. One of the guys being tossed around will likely be available, and we’d be in a better position once we know exactly what our bullpen looks like.

]]> By: TugTheMan http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115397 TugTheMan Thu, 20 Mar 2008 14:36:01 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115397 its a fair assessment. its hard to argue those points. its a fair assessment. its hard to argue those points.

]]> By: cuervo http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115392 cuervo Thu, 20 Mar 2008 14:29:07 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115392 a judge just threw out those charges as per the nypost, so they were looking at "other ways" to charge bonds. a judge just threw out those charges as per the nypost, so they were looking at “other ways” to charge bonds.

]]> By: Jefferies Fan in Jax http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115391 Jefferies Fan in Jax Thu, 20 Mar 2008 14:27:09 +0000 http://www.metsblog.com/2008/03/19/blog-tigers-want-heilman-for-thames/#comment-115391 Agree that we don't need to trade one of our very few pitching prospects for a bat like Nady or Thames. But, I wonder how much Nady is worth? Not in terms of prospects. Look at this scenario. Matt Morris and Xavier Nady (Who combine for 14M this year, which includes Morris' 1M buyout) for Sosa, Schoenweiss, and a lesser package of prospects. Morris could become our fifth starter, allowing Pelfrey to start the year in AAA, El Duque could begin on the DL (eventually taking over for Sosa in the long role), and we could get a better look at Wise, Smith, and Register in the pen. It makes sense for the Pirates as they lose approximately 9M in payroll this year, and Nady's contract (figures to get $5M in arbitration)... The question for the Mets is... Do you want to pay $14M for Xavier Nady and Matt Morris? Or go with what we got? It's not my money, but with our age and injury issues, and how close I think the Mets are this year, I think it might be worth it. Morris and Nady could sure up the Mets bench, rotation, and pen. Of course, I'm just speculating... but I'd rather dish out bucks than Heilman or prospects Agree that we don’t need to trade one of our very few pitching prospects for a bat like Nady or Thames.

But, I wonder how much Nady is worth? Not in terms of prospects.

Look at this scenario.

Matt Morris and Xavier Nady (Who combine for 14M this year, which includes Morris’ 1M buyout) for Sosa, Schoenweiss, and a lesser package of prospects.

Morris could become our fifth starter, allowing Pelfrey to start the year in AAA, El Duque could begin on the DL (eventually taking over for Sosa in the long role), and we could get a better look at Wise, Smith, and Register in the pen.

It makes sense for the Pirates as they lose approximately 9M in payroll this year, and Nady’s contract (figures to get $5M in arbitration)…

The question for the Mets is… Do you want to pay $14M for Xavier Nady and Matt Morris? Or go with what we got? It’s not my money, but with our age and injury issues, and how close I think the Mets are this year, I think it might be worth it. Morris and Nady could sure up the Mets bench, rotation, and pen.

Of course, I’m just speculating… but I’d rather dish out bucks than Heilman or prospects

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