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In a post to Minor League Ball, prospect guru John Sickels takes a closer look at Fernando Martinez, of whom he writes:
“Martinez has enormous potential, clearly…While scouts are unanimous about his tools, no one is quite certain about how his skills are going to develop. Some see him developing into a 30+ homer guy, while some think he’ll be more of a high batting average guy with OK power, and some see him developing both…Given a normal growth curve, Martinez should be an excellent player. But the shape that excellence will take is unclear to me…If I was a Mets fan, would I be super-excited about Martinez? Sure. As a general baseball fan I find his case a fascinating one.”
…i’m as excited about this kid as the next fan, but i try to always remind myself that he has yet to have a full, successful season in double-a or higher, and he is only 19 years old…at which point, i usually bring my expectations down to earth…though it’s only a matter or minutes before i get giddy again…
…thanks to the irreplaceable Peter Wade for the link…
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And speaking of issues that have no effect on the ‘08 season, and wont play out for years….
Its not that I dont care about FMart, I’m just continuing the ‘JUST START THIS SEASON SO WE HAVE SOMETHING TO ACTUALLY TALK ABOUT’ sentiment from the prior post….
At least people aren’t talking about starting Francisco Pena in case Schneider and Castro can’t go.
relax…………………you still gotta wait 12days 21hrs and 10 sec for that buddy
(Scratching neck)…
C’monnnnn mannnnn….I just need one fix. Hook me up one last time….I promise this is the last season. I’m done after this one. Do you take change?
lol
in the meantime while we have no important games to talk about……i think this guy fmart is going to be in the league of wright and reyes and is something to look foward to. i dont think he will be ready by the beginning of 09 but when he is ready, definatly going to kick a**.
I would say Fmart is, what?, three years away from the bigs? Is that fair?
with another organization probably that would be enough for them to be surely ready. The way i see the mets going, this kid has got one year and a few months to take over LF. Some prospects can handle the show at a young age…i think the mets believe he is one of them. The mets do not have a ledgit starter for LF in 09 so im sure they expect him to be ready by then. We should get a better feel as to what they want to do with Fmart come the trade deadline/08 offseason.
Can you be more specific. As in ‘we wont see him’ for 3 years, or he wont be a regular for 3 years? I say sometime maybe AS Break-expanded rosters next year he’ll be up for good. I mean he’ll be 20(I cannot believe thats ‘old’), and should be ready to play. I think 3 years-ish is about right on him being an everyday OF’r though sounds about right though. Assuming diseaster doesnt strike and he becomes the best/only available option….
Well, outside of a september callup, I can’t see him on the big league roster if he isn’t a regular. I really hope he can stay healthy for a full season eventually.
I think you’ll see him a lot sooner than 3 years.
He’s already completed a half-season of AA, and will see a half-season of AAA this year. Given his talent, any organization would probably be thinking 2010 latest for him.
Given he’s a Met, there’s a strong chance he’ll be the 2009 starting LF, for three reasons
1) This is the Mets, who don’t wait for their studs
2) There’s an opening at LF in 2009, as well as plenty of other holes to fill
3) 2009 will not be a ‘win now’ year, because of point 2), so we can afford to ride it out if he’s not an instant success.
Then there’s (4) – if you’re good enough, you’re old enough, and a lot of people think that applies to F-Mart
but, he keeps on getting hurt. he played a total of 140 games in two seasons in the minors.
i just feel that two very good minor league years would be about right. but, if he rakes, he rakes, and he’ll be up sooner.
Why do people insist on calling him “F-Mart”? No one calls Pedro “P-Mart”. It’s just Pedro. Hopefully, when he comes up to stay people will be over the whole F-Mart thing and just call him Fernando.
I only refer to him as The Machine.
i do like that.
he’ll be forever known as the adolescent hitting machine starting in ‘09
Arod, KG, and TMac would like to say hello, and that they do not believe your request will be fulfilled.
We need ’something’ for Johan too. Even if its just a phrase or something. I cannot think of ANYTHING. Someone has to put up ‘K’s on the UD facade with a clever saying…Why are Yankees fans so much better at this than us? Coneheads, Moose, etc….We’ve got nothin….except for ‘DWright’, which sucks and Dirty which is fabulous….
Jo Gotta Believe is ALL I’ve got and it sucks….
Mets fans came up with the conehead
Orioles’ fans came up with moose
and mets fans invented K-Korner back when Doc was a phenom. I just think that the yankees fans are much better at plagerism.
Just wait for the stupid scoreboard to come up with something cheesy like, “That’s Santastic” after a K with an image of johan giving a thumbs up. simply horrible.
Valid points across the board….
Urgh…is That really the best play on words for his name? I guess maybe, in which case Ill just get used to calling him Johan Santana for the foreseeble future…
ahahhahaha dude, your comment was “Santastic”
We’ve all been to Shea… that is the sort of thing that they’ll be all over. I can almost picture it in my head now.
i’m gonna call him YOYO
it’s just faster to type.
nobody calls Pedro P-Mart, because they call him Pedro…same number of characters….
FMart came about a few years ago, because it is a bit cumbersome to type Fernando Martinez.
Also accepted is The Machine, or TTHM (The Teenage Hitting Machine)
some people call jesus christ: jc
it’s a lot easier just calling him F-mart, Fernando is stupid. He’s going to be the new Vlad, just little less power.
Fernando is stupid? What are you in 3rd grade?
F-mart is stupid.
there isn’t one player under 22 who is currently a successful position player in the majors. delmon young is the only 22 year old who had a successful year at 22.
miguel cabrera and pujols even took until 21 and they were phenoms
f-mart is years away at 19.
Reyes (though raw) hit .307/.334/.434 as a 19-20 yr old in 2003….not saying FMart will come up hitting .320 with 38 homers, but doesn’t mean he won’t be successful
and reyes regressed at 21: .255/.271/.373
injuries, no?
like f-mart the last 2 season
exactly–Reyes was sidelined by injury for much of ‘04–remember they tried to change his stride?
At least in ‘03, Jose had a few months of playing time before the injury bug got him in august
f-mart has to hit to help the team. that’s all he does. reyes was playing excellent defense and was a threat on the bases too
All of the sudden he is a one-trick pony? What happened to his other 4 tools?
hitting is 2 of the 5 tools (avg; power)
his defense is decent (arm; fielding)
his speed is above avg, but he doesn’t steal bases (speed)
those are the tools. reyes has 4 top-level tools (little power) and f-mart has 2 top-level. then again those 2 tools are vitally important.
when reyes came up, all he had was a throwing arm and speed.
a 19 year old reyes had 29 errors in the minors
Good point. How old is Hanley Ramirez out of curiosity?
he was 22 when he won ROY hitting 17/59/.292/.356/.480 in 2006.
He’s ridiculous. I mean I really appreciate what we have, but MAN….he. is. REEEEdiculous…..Isnt it amazing that (agruably) Reyes is the 3rd best SS in his own division….
i don’t even think it’s much of an argument. and, i love reyes, but:
1) hanley ramirez
2) jimmy rollins
3) jose reyes
and then you have troy tulowitzki and jj hardy nipping at the top three.
*league-wide, obviously…
Is this MVP voting, or do you alwo want to include defense in the equation? Or just vote for the guy with the most homers?
you have to consider defense, but to what extent?
Ok, Good….I just didnt wanna be the one to say emphatically that he was the 3rd best in the division. Its a great way to weed out people that knew zero about baseball to ask that question. Anyone that says Reyes(or at least ‘Reyes-NO DOUBT!’) knows nothing about the game….
I do have to say that there is a greater gap between 1-3 and 4-? though. I like Tulo and Hardy, but neither is nipping on Reyes’ heels just yet. I love the way that Tulo plays the game though. Cant teach being a ‘ballplayer’. Cant see him slouching his shoulders the way Reyes did last year, althogh talent wise its not even close…..
have you seen the range factors for these guys? tulo is #1 by a significant margin (+43 over #2). reyes is 12th. it’s pretty alarming, actually.
NAME RF ZR
Troy Tulowitzki, Col 5.39 0.866
Rafael Furcal, LA 4.96 0.851
Jack Wilson, Pit 4.96 0.81
Omar Vizquel, SF 4.74 0.897
David Eckstein, StL 4.52 0.812
Jimmy Rollins, Phi 4.41 0.824
Khalil Greene, SD 4.38 0.855
Stephen Drew, Ari 4.36 0.803
Felipe Lopez, Was 4.3 0.787
Hanley Ramirez, Fla 4.27 0.786
Edgar Renteria, Atl 4.14 0.8
Jose Reyes, NYM 4.07 0.863
J.J. Hardy, Mil 4 0.797
reyes is #3 in zr which is under his control.
rf depends on the pitchers and whether or not balls get hit your way.
reyes is a great defensive ss. mlb couts ranged him #1 defensive infieleder in baseball recently
click on the results from this page:
mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080314&content_id=2425787&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Note that of those, only Tulo and Vizquel have a higher ZR than Reyes.
I wonder how much Reyes’ RF is reduced by having Wright scooping up or deflecting balls most other 3B would just watch?
BTW Saltzy… I’d say Tulo is definitely in the elite category.
When he first came up he justified his place on defense alone – he’s probably got the best infield arm in baseball. Now he’s a hitter too. I love Jose, but Tulo’s a real gem also.
People who think Rollins is a better overall player than Reyes are just wrong…he’ll hit .265 this year..not to mention reyes is much better defensively
It’s hard to stay grounded with this kid…
His minor league numbers so far aren’t spectacular, but you know they’re depressed by his injuries. I guess that’s the biggest fear – what if he’s fragile?
But he’s got:
- A great swing
- A great work ethic
- A great attitude
Plus he’s handled major-league pitching pretty well this spring, although it is ‘only’ spring training. Wright and Reyes have set expectations for Mets fans sky-high when it comes to prospects, but F-Mart currently looks like he’s on track to meet them.
OFF TOPIC:
Brian Bannister finished with more ROY votes than Daisuke Matsuzaka.
too early to speculate (OK, it’s never too early for that!) on when THM comes up. Too many factors in play:
-Will he stay healthy and get 400 ABs this year in the minors? And if so, will he dominate?
-how big will the hole if LF be this year? Hopefully it won’t be like last year, so there won’t be any desperate need to call him up (like Gomez)
- will there be any other viable (or better) options for 2009?
- related to that, if they don’t have anyone good for 2009, will they let him finish developing in the big leagues?
Ideally, he will have a full year in 2008 in the minors, and really play well, then a big spring in 2009, and spend the 1st 1-2 months in 2009 destroying AAA, then he comes up for good and becomes the everyday guy. Sort of the DW plan, but maybe a year earlier.
Oh, and someone earlier posted that 2009 won’t be “win now”? I don’t get that logic, which seems to be that 2008 is the window, and they will rebuiold/suck in 2009.
Bogus IMO. If they are good enough to win in 2008, with minimal contributions fromAlou and Delgado, then for sure they can win in 2009 (maybe even a better chance) with replacements in LF and 1B, assuming they have some level of talent. That is, the 2009 guys just might be better!
Other than the SP question (will Pedro and/or OP be back?), the rest of the team, and the real core, will still be here.
So hopefully in 2009 they are going for a repeat, with F Mart breaking in in LF, and some fresh blood at 1B.
I just think that any year in NY is a win-now year since the payrolls are so high. But, the new stadium has to enter into the conversation. You would love to field a winning team for the first year of the stadium, but you don’t HAVE to to draw.
It is possible for the team to be neither win now or rebuilding. It is sort of the way they have been the last two seasons. their best players are young and their other players are old. Castillo may walk around like my grandmother after stealing 2nd, but he’s still just 32 (and still stealing bags).
I don’t understand when people call the Mets a “win now” team. They are built to succeed this year, but after this year, Alou, Delgado, Duque and possibly Pedro will be gone. They will most likely be replaced by people in their late 20s-early 30s. They will also be expected to compete next year, regardless of what they do next offseason.
How can a team expected to compete this year and at least next year be called a “win now” team?
I think the issue here is how you percieve the expression “Win Now”….
A. A team built to win this upcoming season. They have all the supposed pieces to win, but the future is uncertain going forward.
B. WIN—-NOW!!!….I fall under this category of thought. As in, I’ve waited f*$&^ing LONG ENOUGH….I’m begging you…WIN NOW….It has little to do with the actual make up of the team. Its the mentality of, ‘You guys have everything you need, a huge payroll, your own network with all games in HD, and a new park on the way….WIN. NOW.
When I think of a win now team, I think of a team that is not going to be given a chance to succeed in the future.
I guess I just get mad when people refer to the mets as an old team citing Pedro’s injury history and Alou and Duque always falling apart. They forget that they have 2 of the best players in the game who are 25 years old and the best pitcher in baseball at 29.
I think a team like the phillies is in much more of a “win now” mode than the mets because not only is their core (utley, howard, rollins) older than (reyes, wright, beltran), but they also don’t have the financial ability to keep the three of them at the same time as filling out the other 22 spots on their roster.
Look at the Braves too. They are young in some places, but their core guys are very old (chipper, smoltz) and their best hitter, Tex, is in his walk year.
Things could be much worse than the future of the mets.
i think it’s fair to just say they the team is expected to compete every year, period.
win now implies the team will not be able to compete at a high level later. that’s not really the case.
win always?
I think we should let his performance this year dictate his progression. Hopefully, there will be no need to rush him. There are always stopgaps in the OF… My prediction is that we’re looking at ‘09 for this kid (be it beginning or mid-year) and it is not unreasonable to be a bit excited to add him to our list of “core” players…
I’m just looking at 60% of our likely rotation being in their walk year, plus Alou and Delgado.
To replace those 5 players, the farm can offer only F-Mart, Pelfrey and maybe Niese if he dominates the minors this year. Re-signing or replacing OP is going to cost a lot of money, and Delgado’s buyout ain’t cheap either, especially with the FA 1B crop next year mostly being Tex, who’s going to cost major money with the Skanks almost certainly in the bidding.
I don’t think we’ll be as strong next year as this year, and if we don’t use F-Mart as our leftfielder we’re going to have to spread the money even thinner.
I would say 40% of the rotation, only because no one can really be counting on Duque, and he certainly won’t be a part of the rotation all year. So consider him and Pelfrey 5a and b, and then you have 60% locked up.
I expect at least one of the otherw will be back. Probably Pedro if he stays healthy, but I think OP guys for a ridiculous offer. Maybe not though.
So if they resign 1 of them, they can find a #5 someplace.
And replacing Delgados production won’t be that hard, or expensive. Of course it will cost more if they go after Tex.
I’m not worried about the buyout amount crippling the budget either!
With luck, they can fill 1 spot internally 9F mart?) 3 (LF, 1B, SP) is pushing it, but possible.
Personally, I see F. Martinez being called up some time after the All – Star break. Alou will be hurt (of course) and I see Church and his struggles vs. Left Handers becoming a BIG BIG problem that will factor into him being called up. Martinez will probably go threw the same ropes that Wright went threw. He wil be used later this year, and will be starting in ‘09 to break in the new stadium. Thus he will not be eligible for rookie of the year in ‘09 which again in my mind he would have a GREAT chance of winning if givin the opportunity. I dont think his age will factor into anything when it comes down to it… It will all depend on his production prior to the Break, or (crossing fingers) prior to injuries.